GOP Insiders: We Will Lose 5 Senate Seats, 14 in the House

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:49:27 AM EST

Last week National Journal magazine polled Democratic and Republican Party insiders to ask them what they thought the results of the 2008 congressional elections would look like. Surprisingly (or perhaps not), the predictions from the two sides didn't look all too different when they were posted over the weekend:

Average Projection from Democratic and Republican Insiders

SenateHouse
DemocratsD+5D+17
RepublicansD+5D+14

Apparently no Republican insiders were willing to go on record as projecting no net gain for either party in the House or the Senate -- though 5 percent foresaw Democratic gains in the Senate of 7 or more seats, and nearly a quarter predicted a 20+ seat pickup for the Democrats in the House.

Does this mean that this will come to pass? Of course not. A whole lot can and will happen between now and November 4. That said, the pessimism on the right speaks for itself -- perhaps even more loudly than just the projections alone. With Republican insiders, who are likely privy to private polling in addition to all of the data publicly available, seeing major losses again on the horizon, there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of hope left within the GOP at this juncture.




Tags: House 2008, Senate 2008 (all tags)

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Re: GOP Insiders: We Will Lose14 in the House (2.00 / 1)

The G.O.P will lose 40-60 House seats, and get their ass kicked in the Senate too.


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:53:30 AM EST

Re: GOP Insiders: We Will Lose14 in the House (none / 0)

No way they lose 40-60. They'll lose, but 40-60 is a pretty tall order. Most of the low hanging fruit was picked in 06. I say about 15, maybe 20 if we get all the breaks.


by Mayor McCheese on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:06:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP Insiders: We Will Lose14 in the House (none / 0)

Look what happened at the Special Elections this year. That was a tall order too.


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:40:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

12 Senate, 70 House -- We Can Make It Happen (none / 0)

Bush has obviously done a terrible job over the last 7 years. Republicans in Congress supported him every step of the way and stonewalled every investigation that might have stopped the worst of it. The economy is heading into a recession, the price of gasoline is skyrocketing, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan drag on with little to show for all the money and people they have destroyed, almost nothing has been done about global warming or healthcare, and Republican cronyism and corruption is continuing to be revealed. Republicans rightfully will be blasted this year.

However, they still have the corporate media on their side and there are still lots of low-information voters who don't have a very clear understanding of what is going on. The Empire will Fight Back with misinformation and slimy innuendo. So we have a lot of work to do in the next 5 months to educate and turn out voters. But if we do, I think it is not inconceivable to pick up 12 Senate seats and 70 House seats. The special elections show what could happen.


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by RandomNonviolence on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 04:14:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP Insiders: We Will Lose 5 Senate Seats, 14 (none / 0)

Boy, that info has to bum out the paid McCain internet moles on mydd.


I voted for Hillary!
by deepee on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:54:03 AM EST

Paid McSame moles? (none / 0)

How much are they paid and by whom?


by eddieb on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:14:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Paid McSame moles? (none / 0)

The McCain press release didn't say.  You have seen it, right?  If not, look it up.


I voted for Hillary!
by deepee on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 12:32:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We pulled the inside straight (2.00 / 1)

in 2006 -- by this time in 2006, it was considered a remote possibility that we'd snag 6 Senate seats.

I think we can pull 9.  We'll need some breaks, but we're in positive territory.

Consider that the bluer states with GOP seats up for grabs this cycle -- OR, MN, and ME -- are actually second tier races at this point.

We're looking good in the purple states - VA, NH, and CO.

We've even got single digit races - and it's only June - in red states AK, MS, and NC.

Throw in NM, incumbents under 50 in TX and KY (not that I think we win either, but TX in particular is a stealth longshot, I think).

Who knows... a Lieberman-can-go-to-hell filibuster proof Senate is by no means impossible.

Our changes are probably no better than %5 of that happening, but to paraphrase Admiral Adama -- sometimes you DO roll the hard six.


by zonk on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:58:18 AM EST

Re: We pulled the inside straight (none / 0)

I think we are all afraid to jinx a really big gain! How does gaining 11 senate seats sound. I know, I know don't jinx it!


by eddieb on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:12:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ahhh, the sweet smell of Kentucky....Vengence... (none / 0)

after 2004.  And if there was ever a Minority Leader that deserved to lose it is Mitch McConnell.  He is the most corrupt, lobbyist-funded, obstructionist Minority Leader in the history of the Senate.  The Republicans filibustered more times in one year than almost all Congresses do in an entire session.  I hope the state of Kentucky feels as I do.  I would hate for that beautiful state to represented by such a failure as Mitch McConnell (BTW, Frankfurt has the best Vietnam memorial I've ever seen).


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:21:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP Insiders: We Will Lose 5 Senate Seats, 14 (none / 0)

Republicans should be being run out of town on a rail.

I cannot believe this country is still so evenly divided.  McCain should be losing in the polls by double digits.

WTF is wrong with this country?


by Juno on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:03:22 AM EST

Re: Polls, polls, polls (none / 0)

Do worry be happy. Things will begin to change now that the Dems will focus on informing the low-information voter of the REAL McSame.


by eddieb on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:16:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polls, polls, polls (none / 0)

You think so, huh?


by Juno on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:18:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What is wrong? (none / 0)

When Clinton wraps it up, I predict a 15% Obama bounce.  Just extrapolating popular wisdom, I know.  I'm just illustrating a point based on your question.


John McCain, maverick
by lojasmo on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:19:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is wrong? (none / 0)

Um, I include Americans nominating Barack Obama to be the Democratic nominee.  


by Juno on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:24:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP Insiders: We Will Lose 5 Senate Seats, 14 (2.00 / 1)

The only hope for the GOPunks is that Joe Lie-berman switches parties. All I can say is good riddance.


by eddieb on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:09:25 AM EST

Your title is somewhat misleading... (2.00 / 1)

It says that they say we will lose seats, but they actually say we'll win seats.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:15:34 AM EST

Well said ! n/t (none / 0)


by eddieb on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:19:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your title is somewhat misleading... (none / 0)

Yeah, it scared me for a moment!


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:39:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Do Not Be Lulled into Security (none / 0)

Sure the estimates right now are six seats. But why not 9 to be able to get to 60. It only happens if we work hard to make it happen.

Whether you are a Clinton or Obama supporter, we all agree on getting Repubs out of Congress. Let's each try and make a difference. Donate/volunteer/call/GOTV -- whatever it takes.

Make 2008 a Democratic landslide !!!


by chatters71 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:15:41 AM EST

Re: Do Not Be Lulled into Security (none / 0)

while you're at it make that 10 so we can dump LIE-berman.


by eddieb on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:18:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

As a Rightie myself, I predict massive GOP (none / 0)

collapse.

The number of folks from the Right - from pragmatic Indies like myself to lifelong Republicans - who are working for Obama is staggering.

Not just going to the polls, but spending their/our time to elect a Democratic president.

There is just very little to attract anyone to the Republicans these days.  Best they can do imho is to get the casual vote - people pulling levers out of habit.  The Republican Brand - as every Right pudit I have heard say - isn't worth a nickel.

The best they have going for them is people on the Left - like many here, DKOS and other such places - insluting them and making them pull the R lever out of spite...

And yes, I am making a point here.

If you want to help the Republicans, keep saying "Rethug/Repug/Repuke" where they can see you saying it...

If you want to limit the country's ability to get things done, to work together, to find our commonalities instead of difference - keep using insults as a way to communicate.

The Right doesn't have anything going for them other than our own bad actions.

-chris


Motley Moose, Troll Free Blogging
by chrisblask on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:19:57 AM EST

Re: As a Rightie myself, I predict massive GOP (none / 0)

Although I generally am quite respectful of Republicans, I think there is a fine line between avoiding insults (good idea) and being pushovers (bad idea).

For years I think the Dems have been pushovers to the right and it has been our worst problem.  For instance, we bought into the "Dems are soft on security" nonsense and became GOP light, voting for the Iraq war.  The right throws ludicrous insults at the Dems, but the Dems sometimes respond not by pushing back hard but rather by trying to appease the right wing critics.  "Well, the GOP has a point..."  Sometimes that isn't the right answer.  Sometimes the right answer is, "the GOP is bankrupt and corrupt."

All I'm saying is, there is a way to be respectful and even open to bipartisanship while still strongly criticizing the wrongheaded and incompetent ideas of the GOP.  I think for too long Dems have confused comity and respect with asskissing and "me too"-ism.


by snaktime on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:01:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As a Rightie myself, I predict massive GOP (none / 0)

I agree with you on every point.

The Dems became GOP Light and Kerry lost.  Why bother voting for them if they are just a weak imitation of the other side?

There is nothing invigorating like a good honest fight, and inversely nothing as disempowering as being reduced to mudslinging.  The possible analogies are legion.  Sticking with the schoolyard fight analog for now, there is the foot-planted person who takes no BS and there is the weaker or stronger person who hurls snide.  Of the two, whether they are right or wrong, the person standing their ground is in a better position both in reality and perception.

The tables have turned, now.  The Dems are rapidly evolving a Position, and the GOP is rapidly losing thiers.  I forecast a multi-year period where the GOP tries to own the mojo of the Dems (why isn't there a good TLA for Democrats? ;~) and fail (2012) and eventually come up with something of their own (2016?  2020?).

Now that the Dems "own" the solid ground, it's time to act like owners.  Solid Ground Owners do not have to defend their position with weak tools like hyperbole, they have better hammers in hand.

-best

-chris


Motley Moose, Troll Free Blogging
by chrisblask on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:21:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

For the first time in his career (none / 0)

I am proud to agree with Tom Davis (R[etiring]-VA).


Stop the racism. Fight the smears.
by CrazyDrumGuy on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:20:26 AM EST

My prediction (none / 0)

We pick up 6-7 in the Senate and 20-25 in the House.


by RandyMI on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:43:24 AM EST


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