Some Montana & South Dakota Exit Polls

From Marc Ambinder:

73% of Clinton voters in South Dakota say they'd support Obama in the fall versus just 13% who say they'd support McCain. Still, 55% say they would not be satisfied if Obama were the nominee.

** In Montana, a quarter of Clinton voters say they'd vote for McCain and 52% say they're unhappy with Obama as the nominee.

From MSNBC, Clinton supporters in South Dakota overwhelmingly want Obama to pick her as his VP nominee 68%-28%; by a 56%-40% margin, Obama supporters want him not to.

Also, from Mark Halperin:

MSNBC: A majority of Montana Democrats said a candidate's ability to "bring change" mattered most to them. Read more.

ABC: About half of South Dakota voters, slightly more in Montana, say change is the main attribute they're looking for in a candidate.

We already know that Obama is probably going to win Montana and Hillary has, at worst, a shot at South Dakota and at best, if the ARG poll is anything close to reality, she's a shoe-in, but this is an interesting catch by Ben Smith on one thing that would happen in the event of a South Dakota win for Clinton:

If Clinton wins South Dakota, the senator -- who has endorsed Obama -- will supporter her, he tells a local paper.

Sheesh, wasn't really anticipating any Obama to Clinton switches tonight.

Polls close in South Dakota at 9pm Eastern (although most of the state, which is in the central time zone, just closed at 8pm) and in Montana at 10pm Eastern. In the scheme of things, probably a good thing psychologically for the final result of the night...the final result of this incredible nomination process...to be an Obama victory.



Display:


Both are in the bag. (none / 0)

Her last victory was in PR, if Poblano's stats are solid.

The general has begun.


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:12:03 PM EST

Not before Denver (2.00 / 1)

i demand reserve Hillary's right to demand a recount of the roll call vote in Denver.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:21:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's why (none / 0)

They are trying to get supers to switch right now to try to spin the media story to fairly ignore she has a blow out in SD, which is possible.  


NoSlaves.com | The Economic Populist
by Robert Oak on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:15:38 PM EST

is this snark? (2.00 / 1)

seriously,

is this snark?


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:20:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Montana & South Dakota Exit Polls (2.00 / 1)

Congratulations Senator Obama!!!

Onto the general election!


by agpc on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:15:51 PM EST

Re: Some Montana & South Dakota Exit Polls (none / 0)

Since SD isn't going to be competitive in the general and MT probably won't be either, all the attention to what Clinton voters think of Obama there is just fluff. Hillary certainly shouldn't be the VP. She adds nothing but baggage to the ticket.


by Quinton on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:16:08 PM EST

I beg... (none / 0)

to differ, at least about Montana.  They sent Tester to the Senate.   And they have elected a democratic governor. Montana is in play.


Capitalization is the difference between "I had to help my uncle Jack off a horse..." and "I had to help my uncle jack off a horse..."
by igottheblues on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:10:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I beg... (none / 0)

It was great to elect Tester in 2006, but I don't think that MT is going to be in play in the general for Obama. If Obama takes MT then he won't need it as he'll have won in a landslide.


by Quinton on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:29:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Montana & South Dakota Exit Polls (none / 0)

What I really want to know isn't will we come together as a party, but when will we come together?  What's the reunification timeline going to be, I wonder?  

And how are we going to handle the fraction of "Democrats" who will inevitably declare they will never ever support Obama and start advocating McCain?


by Jay R on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:18:58 PM EST

Re: (none / 0)

Don't handle it, just accept it. I won't vote McCain but I'll never vote Obama.


by handsomegent on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:24:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Boo-Effing-Hoo (1.00 / 2)

Whom cares?
It's self-absorbed bloat like that which gave Senator Clinton's scorched earth campaign its cartoon character/comic book status.
Take your widdle ball(s) and go home.
by woof blister on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:01:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

People who want to vote for McCain are McCain Democrats. IOW, republicans.
They don't belong here.
I think you can see a lot of the "reunification" is happening right now on the rec list.
"Who are you for? That is the wrong question. It should be who is for you?" HRC
by skohayes on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:25:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Land of Hope and Dreams (1.00 / 2)

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."
--Mohandas Gandhi

The supercilious smarm of the Clintonista apologistas will not go rewarded.
Neither pass "Veep" nor collect $20 million.


by woof blister on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:22:48 PM EST

The media is fun (none / 0)

It's amazing how "public opinion" one week is that growing number of supporters in each camp will not vote for the other, and yet, overnight, and just in time for a new addition to the Obama narrative, "public opinion" has completely resolved itself and now only a small minority will not vote for their opponent.

I guess everyone just had a revelation all at once.


by bobbank on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:23:10 PM EST

Re: Some Montana & South Dakota Exit Polls (none / 0)

The river card is out.  No more outs.

A lot of the guys throwing money at the pot as-if they were 100% committed suddenly fold.

That's just the way the game is played.


by jello5929 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:30:53 PM EST

Re: Some Montana & South Dakota Exit Polls (none / 0)

It'd be cool of Clinton to come on and give her speech right after McCain begins his. That would be a sign of democratic unity I think...  to cut into McCain's speech. He's going to try to speak to her disgruntled supporters so she'd take away that audience.


John McCain defends Bush's Iraq strategy.
by recusancy on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:31:28 PM EST

Re: Some Montana & South Dakota Exit Polls (none / 0)

Some of the exit numbers I've seen suggest a narrow Clinton win in South Dakota, but I think Obama probably led in the early voting (I think they've been able to vote for a while), so it looks like it will be close. Of course, exit polls suck, so who really knows.

Montana looks pretty safe for Obama.

I don't think it's going to matter all that much if Clinton wins South Dakota, since the coverage seems more interested in discussing Obama's delegate victory than the particular results from tonight's primaries.

In any case, big congratulations to Clinton on such a strong finish. She (and the whole Clinton family) outcampaigned him, for sure. I know that Obama deliberately shifted to GE mode and chose to concentrate on GE swing states, but Clinton's victories remain real and impressive.

But, ultimately, it's a great night for the Obama campaign. It was quite an upset.


by DPW on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:35:34 PM EST

Re: Some Montana & South Dakota Exit Polls (none / 0)

a dream deferred.


by alyssa chaos on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 08:37:17 PM EST

Fox calls it for Clinton in SD (none / 0)

As a Clinton fan, whoopee.  Just reporting it.

I don't ever watch Fox, but their election coverage is better than CNN, which has this bunch of no-nothings.  (Like Suzanne Malveaux, who went from doing dog and cat stories in DC to the national stage.)


by katmandu1 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:11:23 PM EST

McCain speech review (none / 0)

Chris Wallace just said McCain speech was poorly delivered.  Rove agrees.  I thought it was quite poor.

On Karl Rove -- I think he is looking forward, as to how he'll make money for the rest of his life.  I think he's a very good commentator and wants that as a career.  He speaks more cleanly than many seasoned talking heads.  He can think on his feet.  Too bad his politics are so evil.  But he's a very good analyst.


by katmandu1 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:16:28 PM EST

Re: McCain speech review (none / 0)

Yes his analysis of the 2006 mid-terms were spot on.


by wengler on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 09:43:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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