MyDD :: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point

Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point

by Blazers Edge, Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 08:22:48 PM EST

By my count, Obama is leading McCain 297-241 if you look at the most recent state-by-state polls taken by Rasmussen. The lead could be as large as 332-206 as Obama is pretty much tied with McCain in some states that are red at the moment (he currently trails by one and two in Ohio and North Carolina, respectively); however, the lead could also be as small as 271-267 as Obama's lead in some blue states at the moment is marginal (e.g. he currently leads by one in Virginia and Missouri). How does he compare to Kerry at this point in the summer?

The very fact that I asked this question is probably going to earn me the label of a concern troll, McBlogger, and a cascade of Fail pictures, but Kerry was also leading Bush at this point 291-247 according to Rasmussen in the month of July.

Obama is in better shape than Kerry, though not by as much as you may think. Obama's lead comes from more states than Kerry as Kerry's lead was due primarily to his leading Bush in Florida (the other two states were Iowa, and suprisingly, Arkansas). However, it should be noted that Kerry was not performing that much worse than Obama in some of the states that Obama is attempting to turn blue.

In July, Kerry was only trailing Bush by three in Virginia; Obama is up one at this point, which means that Obama is outperforming Kerry by four points. In Iowa, Obama has a seven-point lead, which surpasses Kerry's four point lead at this time. Obama is also performing significantly better than Kerry in blue states that McCain's crew considered potentially at risk such as Maine, California, and my home state of Washington. Also, Rasmussen's poll in Florida may be an outlier (McCain is leading Obama by nine), if PPP confirms an Obama lead as was indicated in ARG and Quinipiac.

However, there is a counterargument. It could be also argued that rather than Obama outperforming Kerry by an average of five points, John McCain will is underperforming compared to Bush. Now this next comment will surely earn me enmity from some of the troll abusers, but I considered Bush to be a signficantly better politician at this point than John McCain. If you take a look at the most recent Gallup/USA Today poll, Obama is destroying McCain on questions having to deal with personal empathy (cares about you, shares my values, understand the problems that people face); likewise, if my memory serves me correctly, Bush performed incredibly well with these types of questions. McCain's advantage stems completely from the perception that even though voters may believe he doesn't give one flying rip about them or their problems when compared to Obama, they do consider him to be a strong and decisive leader when compared to Obama.

Just some food for thought on a very hot summer day here in Seattle.

Tags: Obama, Kerry, Rasmussen (all tags)

Permalink :: 35 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

I think that Obama will become a better politician, not John McCain. McCain has been here before, he's done it before. Obama is still learning, but adapting quickly.

But yes, it can still go in either direction. He needs to get more on the ball pretty damn soon and actually implement the strategy he's outlined. The latest news about McCain not having paid taxes on one of his houses in four years should provide plenty of ammunition. Jesus, how does this guy expect to make himself appear competent in regards to the economy when he has unpaid taxes for FOUR YEARS on a house and $100,000 of credit card debt!?

"Tell me about your work ethic." "Well, I don't think ethnics do no work. I mean, that's they problem, really." "Overt racial prejudice. Impressive."

by vcalzone on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 08:30:50 PM EST

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (2.00 / 1)

Kerry was the campaigner that Obama is.

Kerry didn't invest the resources into voter registration that Obama has.

Kerry didn't have the rabid support that Obama has.

Kerry had Shrum, the perenial loser running his campaign.

Kerry didn't have the funding advantage that Obama has.

The Democrat brand wasn't as popular in 2004 as it is in 2008.

by Can I Haz Moar Snark on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 08:31:03 PM EST

Also (none / 0)

more importantly, Obama isn't running against an incumbent who's approval ratings were recently in the 70's.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 11:36:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also (none / 0)

That's something else that is getting overlooked among the Chicken Little Liberals. Not worshippoing Bush was the minority opinion four years ago.

by spirowasright on Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 01:00:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

Obama is not Kerry and 2008 is not 2004.
Politics is not a real life version of the movie "Ground Hog Day".
It would be nice if there would be some acknowledgement of that by our esteemed pundits.

by spirowasright on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 08:52:35 PM EST

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

Nothing to get tr'd for in this diary.

As to the essence of your diary, I think it's all pretty much meaningless this far out from the election. Polls can, and probably will, swing significantly between now and November. We've got slightly over 4 months to go. (Wow, where did the time go?) I'll be much more interested in the polls after the conventions.

Having said that, I find one comfort in polls that are showing a close race. They should energize the base more than ones showing a large lead. If people think the election is going to be a big blowout they might get too comfortable and not work hard enough to win.

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson

by MS01 Indie on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 08:59:18 PM EST

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

Charlie Cook actually had a decent analysis up today where he compared Obama v. McCain to the Reagan-Carter race. To summarize: Reagan was actually relatively close to Carter in the polls for much of the race. People knew they didn't like Carter, but they just weren't sure whether Reagan had the experience to be president (seems funny in retrospect, considering how the guy has been lionized by the media). It wasn't until the two stood side by side in the debates that people saw that Reagan was presidential and, at the very end, the election swung his way in a ten point blowout. Anyway, Cook's point was that there's potential for a similar dynamic this year, although obviously much depends on Obama and his campaign.

by animated on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:04:38 PM EST

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

I have always thought of Cook as a poor analyst.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:07:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

I'm not the biggest fan of his either. Still, I can't shake the feeling that once people see McCain and Obama standing side by side making their case, the race may swing decisively towards Obama.

by animated on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:11:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

i don't disagree , debates can move opinions .

However thats usually if something dramatic happens a la Reagan. etc.

We can't really predict what would happen.

I actually think its Mccain that is more likely to say or do something that can upset the apple cart in a debate .

I saw a lot of his debate performances and he certainly is the type of guy that can use the debate to his advantage and disadvantage .

Obama , not so much. We have all seen Obama at debates , like 22 of them .

But no one knows , he could certainly help himself by doing well at debates but I really don't see any wide swings coming out of it .

Just because most politicians go with caution at debates nowadays , if anyone won't go with caution i am guessing it would be Mccain .

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:26:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

I thought McCain was terrible in the debates. I think Obama is a pretty normal democratic debater who had the unfortunate task of squaring off against a good debater 22 times.

I must add though that I am probably the most biased person in the world on this, but I still think McCain is pretty bad at communicating in the ridiculous 1.5 minute sound bite show that is modern debating.

by Xris on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:33:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

I agree he isn't a great debater but I do think against his main competitor Romney he used the debate more to his own advantage as an underdog .

He is famous for his short temper and I can see him doing something dramatic or coming up with lines against Obama like he did with Romney . Just because I get the sense he doesn't really have a high regard for both candidates.

I don't know if I am making myself clear enough.

For example there was a debate in which he told Romney he knew Romney had been changing his positions to kinda deceive the public basically calling him a fraud but Romney shouldn't try to change his . I thougth that was really dramatic because I never really thought any politician would be that disrespectful of another candidate and there were numerous instances in which he did that .

I don't know if Obama is capable of doing that especially when I get the sense he respects Mccain , a lot more than Mccain does him . It doesn't seem like his nature too .

How it plays with the voters is another thing.

Thats why I said its likely to be Mccain to upset the apple cart in a debate either way good or bad.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:44:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

I get what you are saying now and I totally agree. Obama just isn't that much of a dick, and McCain can be mean as hell sometimes.

by Xris on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:45:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

I think the debates are going to be McCain's undoing.

First, Barack Obama is actually a pretty good debater who went up against one of the best in the business 22 times... and if you watch him from first debate to last, it's very clear that he improves significantly.

Second, John McCain is not exactly what I'd call the picture of self-control. If Barack Obama gets under his skin somehow at the debate and McCain goes off... well, that's the ballgame.

Third, even if McCain doesn't go off, his simply sharing a stage with Barack Obama offers voters a chance to see them right next to each other and ask themselves whose face they'd rather see for the next 4-8 years. While it's a sad truth, the fact is that Americans kind of do pick their president based on looks - and Barack Obama has John McCain beat in that area. The last thing John McCain wants is to be Bob Dole to Obama's Bill Clinton... the old fuddy-duddy versus the young cool guy. Image is everything in these things, and if Obama can use his natural gravitas and approach to issues while still being hip - a talent I think he has - the debates will prove very good for him.

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by mistersite on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:49:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

I agree completely on the image thing, its going to be a challenge for McCain to overcome. But we really aren't talking about how bad the issues stack up for McCain. If the economy stays in the same shape it is now or gets worse, McCain is going to have a tough time explaining why he is the best choice for President.

by Xris on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:56:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

Which even if it is effective, Obama won't be given credit for, by this site, the rest of the liberal blogosphere, or the M$M.

by spirowasright on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:09:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

By the way the only way that formula would work is " if people knew that didn't like Mccain or Obama ".

I think polls show the public has pretty much favorable opinion of the two candidate.

Another reason Cook makes Ms. Cleo look like a genius

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

Not likeability - it's a question of whether they have what it takes to be president. I'd argue that McCain makes a better impression on that front based on his reputation, while Obama makes a better impression in person.

by animated on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:17:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

sure .

Again I suppose that comes back to the likeability thing .

Maybe we are working from 2 different assumptions here but my interpretation is that folks really want to vote for Obama and not Mccain for some reason , hence they would move to Obama because of his performance at the debate .

My point is I don't think that would be the case because I believe Mccain is not unliked and i don't get the sense that the folks backing him are doing it because they weren't sure of Obama.

Most swings from debate comes about if something dramatic happens at the debate , otherwise its mainly status quo with a few movement here and there .

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:35:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (2.00 / 1)

There's a big problem comparing 2008 to 1980. For one thing, McCain isn't the incumbent as Carter was; thus, there's some distance between him and the Bush administration's fiascos that wasn't there twenty-eight years ago. Second, there's no Iranian Hostage Crisis this year. From poll results at that time, Reagan only pulled away from a virtual tie to his "landslide" lead over the last weekend of the campaign, when the Carter administration had to acknowledge that its attempt to negotiate the release of our hostages had fallen through. I see no similar incident that could play such a role in the last days of this race.

by JDWalley on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:32:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

One important thing to note is the significant enthusiasm gap right now between the Democrats and Republicans.

"Sixty-three percent of Democrats questioned say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this year. Only 37 percent of Republicans feel the same way, and 36 percent of Republicans say they are not enthusiastic about voting."

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/13/p oll.republicans/index.html

Before he was the nominee, in places like Oregon Obama was drawing in crowds rivaled John Kerry's crowds getting close to the actual election. Democrats are fired up, and while I agree that I would like to see more of a lead right now I also think that we're going to have significant advantages when it comes to organization, get out the vote, etc. Enthusiasm alone doesn't win elections, but it does play a factor.

And so, may evil beware and may good dress warmly and eat lots of fresh vegetables.

by thatpurplestuff on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:24:37 PM EST

so BE.... (none / 0)

what's your opinion on why these numbers are pulling this way? or better yet - wht do you think will happen?

"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that I reach for my feather Boa!" Allen Ginsberg

by canadian gal on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:43:56 PM EST

Re: so BE.... (2.00 / 1)

I am actually happy with where Obama is at right now. He is the first African American candidate who also happens to be taking on the supposed "Maverick" and war hero John McCain. That is not an easy task, but this is a strong democratic year and Obama is obviously very well liked.

As to what is going to happen, I wouldn't put too much faith in anyone really having a good prediction. I can say this with good certainty, if the dynamics of the race do not change in the next 4 months, Obama will win fairly easily. But things always change so who knows.

by Xris on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:49:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: so BE.... (2.00 / 1)

In the end, I have Obama defeating McCain 306-232 (all the Kerry states stay blue, Obama adds Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Missouri), assuming that their respective VP picks have no impact.

While I'd rather be in Obama's shoes than McCain's shoes, I feel Obama could be performing better. I don't consider McCain to be anywhere near as skilled politically as the 2004 George Bush; Obama is absolutely crushing McCain on the economy, the #1 issue in America, and that USA Today/Gallup poll suggests that Obama is connecting to Americans much better than McCain is connecting to them. I just wonder how Obama only up five points on average in light of how well he is performing on these two fronts.

The answer has to be the experience question. McCain seems to be running more on Obama's inexperience than his own experience (I'm not impressed by McCain's "experience"). McCain appears to be drawing blood on this point, as Rasmussen indicates that 40% of Americans consider Obama too inexperienced to be president. Obama needs to hit a home run with his two foreign trips by showing the American people that electing Obama as president would bring back the overwhelmingly favorable opinion that much the world had about us on the morning of 9/12/2001.

by Blazers Edge on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 10:26:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: so BE.... (none / 0)

Best part of all this though is this question isn't going away. There is nothing Obama could really do to look less experienced to those who think that, so all he can do is stay static (unless he does something really stupid, which I just don't see). he can only get better

by Dog Chains on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 10:36:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: so BE.... (none / 0)

I suspect the VP pick will help with experience for Obama.

by animated on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 11:15:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: so BE.... (none / 0)

Good call on the VP choices. I mean, we did get Spiro, Little Danforth (Quayle) and Cheney when they would have probably all been stomped in a one-on-one race.

by spirowasright on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 11:17:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I just get this nagging feeling (2.00 / 1)

guys and gals that we'll be up late that November evening/early morning waiting on the returns from Cleveland, Ohio, hoping that we got the necessary turnout in that city to put Obama over the top. This scenario has Obama ahead by well over three million votes, but the reason why we are all waiting anxiously for Cleveland's returns is that Obama fell just short by 2% in Virginia, Missouri, and Colorado, within 5% in Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Nevada while blowing McCain away in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest. The thought puts a knot in my stomach.

by Blazers Edge on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 10:36:20 PM EST

Re: I just get this nagging feeling (none / 0)

That thought made my stomach lurch. I remember the sick feeling I had in 2004 when it became apparent that Bush was going to get the win. I couldn't believe the American people had re-elected him after seeing him in action for 4 years. I take nothing for granted after 2004.

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson

by MS01 Indie on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 10:51:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just get this nagging feeling (none / 0)

The reulgar people (non political geeks) were voting for the devil they knew vs. the devil they didn't because Iraq was bound to end at any time and we didn't want a new guy to screw it up. I seriously think that is the only reason he won. The boring windsurfer wasn't going protect us for Osama, the cowboy was.

I agree Bush is (somehow) a better political candidate than McCain, McCain almost acts like he has aspergers, he looks very uncomfortable, the transition from his statement to crowd applause is very awkward and comes of as staged (a poor production at that), as if the crowd is like, oh I guess we are suppossed to clap now.

by KLRinLA on Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 12:49:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If Obama wins by 3 million votes (none / 0)

he'd need to win by over 20% in some of the NE and Pacific Northwest states to NOT win Ohio or any other state (Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada) that will give him the election.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 11:38:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And you want to talk (none / 0)

nagging feeling...I get the nagging feeling we're going to wake up on November 5th and realize a lot of people said they'd vote for a black guy and then didn't.

How do I deal with it? I just remind myself if that happens, America deserves what it gets next.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 11:41:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If Obama is Kerry, John McCain is Bob Dole (none / 0)

and I bet John Kerry would have also landslided Bob Dole too. At least Dole had color in his hair. John McCain looks like a corpse dressed up for its open casket funeral. That being said, we should not take these polls for granted. Obama better be ready for an attack when he is riding as high as he will be. If he does and hits back, he'll likely win the election.

by Lakrosse on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 11:20:24 PM EST

Re: John Kerry v. Barack Obama (none / 0)

At this point, John Kerry had been the presumptive Democratic nominee for nearly three months, and the primary was two months long. It hasn't even been four weeks since Barack Obama was declared the party's presumptive nominee, and this year the primary went on for six months. This should be kept in mind any time you compare polls at this moment.

by Brad G on Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 01:25:51 AM EST

Re: Comparing Obama to Kerry at this point (none / 0)

"John McCain is underperforming compared to Bush."

McCain is doing better than any other Republican would have under these circumstances (the GOP brand was still in good shape in 2004, now it's tarnished). Not sure it's reasonable to suggest that Obama is underperforming if the root grievance some have is that he's not the typical white male protestant (Clinton would have faced the same problem). Two main differences between this year and 2004: there are many more undecideds; the Dems seem to be beating the GOP on voter perceptions of most substantive issues.

My hunch, the Dems will get approx. 2/3rds of this undecided vote during the last two weeks (and Obama will win a victory which was never within Kerry's grasp, since half of the country in 2004 still thought Bush was doing a good job).

by IncognitoErgoSum on Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 09:35:40 AM EST

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