Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi

This week we announced our Road to 60 Act Blue page, an effort to increase the likelihood that there will be 60 members of the Democratic caucus in the Senate during the 111th Congress -- and thus enough strength to overcome the seemingly unending Republican filibuster efforts that have derailed key pieces of legislation on issues ranging from Iraq to the economy to energy to healthcare. With the end of the quarter coming up on Monday night, and campaigns, party committees and other potential supports beginning to make some of the important decisions about where to allocate resources during the final four months of the campaign, the time is NOW to make your voice heard. So please consider helping out the Road to 60 effort today.

Earlier this week Todd introduced Mark Begich of Alaska and I introduced Jim Slattery of Kansas. Now it is my pleasure to introduce Ronnie Musgrove, the former Governor of the state of Mississippi who has a great shot at becoming the first Democrat to win a Senate election in the state since 1982 -- and, in the process, win back Trent Lott's seat.

Musgrove is an important addition to this list. He is one of the key cogs in the Democratic efforts to forge a filibuster-proof supermajority in the Senate. Currently, the polling is fairly consistent in tracking this race: Musgrove is highly competitive -- and might even have a slight advantage over the incumbent Republican, Roger Wicker, who was appointed to his position earlier this year following Trent Lott's decision to leave the Senate to pursue other opportunities. Polling on the race commissioned last month by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee found Musgrove leading by an 8-point margin over Wicker, 48 percent to 40 percent. Research 2000 polling for Daily Kos that included the partisan affiliation of the two candidates (note that party affiliation will not be on the ballot in November, just as it was not in the special election in the state's first congressional district this spring in which Democrat Travis Childers sailed to victory), showed Wicker narrowly leading within the margin of error in May, 46 percent to 42 percent. Rasmussen Reports polling released this month showed Musgrove ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, also within the margin of error.

On top of the polling out of Mississippi showing Musgrove at least competitive with Wicker, and perhaps even ahead, the prospect of the Obama campaign targeting Mississippi, or at least organizing the vote in the state -- the first time a Democratic presidential campaign has really looked at the state in upwards of a generation -- could mean an energized Democratic base, more Democrats voting, and thus an increased likelihood of Musgrove winning. So in short, Musgrove can win.

The Hotline and The Fix both put this race among the 10 most competitive this cycle -- square within the range of the races that the Democrats need to pick up in order to hit the number 60. The Cook Political Report calls the race a "tossup", and though the Rothenberg Political Report gives a "clear advantage" to Wicker in this race (in rankings that came out prior to the release of the three aforementioned polls), all in all it looks like this race really could go either way.

It would be intellectually dishonest to argue that he would be one of the more progressive members of the Senate if elected. In fact, he would likely be one of the most, if not the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus in the chamber if he wins in November. If this were the complete story on the race, I wouldn't be writing this post today asking for support for Musgrove's candidacy. But it isn't the complete story.

First, I have little doubt that Musgrove would be more progressive than Wicker on a range of issues. As such, his election would almost undoubtedly make the entire chamber more progressive (even if it would add another conservative to the Democratic caucus). But more importantly, Musgrove would vote with the Democrats on key procedural votes much more often than Wicker. While Musgrove might not always vote with the party on the underlying measure, he would be a significantly more reliable vote on procedural votes -- cloture votes to help override a Republican filibuster -- than Wicker. This, in and of itself, is reason to support Musgrove.

Beyond that, having a competitive race in Mississippi greatly increases the Democrats' chances nationwide. Mississippi is not the type of state that the Republicans should have to invest in. George W. Bush won in the state easily during both of his presidential runs, and the state has sent two Republicans to the United States Senate for the last two decades.

However, the winds are beginning to blow in the other direction in the state. Last month Travis Childers overwhelmingly won in the state's first congressional district, which tends to lean about 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. The polling on the Wicker-Musgrove race mentioned above underscores this fact.

And because Musgrove is competitive, the Republicans are going to have to dump money into the state -- money they didn't account for going into the state at the beginning of the cycle, money that they can't really afford to spend.

At this point, Wicker has a lot more cash in the bank than does Musgrove, which is about the only saving grace for the GOP in Mississippi at this juncture. But you can help make a difference. Head over to the Road to 60 Act Blue page and make a contribution today. Even $5, $10 or $25 before the end of the day Monday, which marks the end of the filing period for the second quarter of the year, would make a huge difference.



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Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

We can win this race.  Musgrove will make a much better Senator than Roger Wicker who until this year has voted party line like no other.  


Musgrove for Senate.
by Countificus on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 02:45:44 PM EST

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

Right on that.

Wicker only found independence (and even then only a sliver) when he decided to seek a promotion.


Please visit Cotton Mouth to support Mississippi progressives.
by cottonmouthblog on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 07:19:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (2.00 / 2)

Come visit us at Cotton Mouth, where we have been running stories daily on the candidates as well as the state of the race.  Thanks for the post on Musgrove!!


Musgrove for Senate.
by Countificus on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 02:48:36 PM EST

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

What are some of his positions? .. has he made any statements about Iraq?  Health Care?


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 03:12:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (2.00 / 1)

He's got a stepson in Iraq, but I don't know his position on a timetable or similar.

He supports SCHIP and as Governor taking care of Children was his top priority.


Please visit Cotton Mouth to support Mississippi progressives.
by cottonmouthblog on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 07:20:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

nice suit; nice hair (none / 0)

that's about it for Musgrove


by Thaddeus on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 02:54:46 PM EST

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (2.00 / 3)

I'm a progressive MS voter. I differ on a lot of issues with him. Musgrove is quite conservative on a number of issues. However, as you stated in the diary, he's a lot more likely to vote with the Dem majority on procedural matters. He's also on the right side when it comes to public schools, privatization of social security, equal rights for women, and immigration. I wrote a diary about voting for the lesser of two evils and used Musgrove as an example. Musgrove gets a 48 out of a 0-100 conservative to liberal scale on fivethirtyeight.com. The lowest of any Dem Senate candidate. His opponent, Roger Wicker, gets a 6. Guess who I'm voting for come November.


"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson
by MS01 Indie on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 03:47:11 PM EST

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

Thanks - that comparison is helpful.

Is he mainly a social conservative?  I know he's big on prayer in schools, and I assume terrible on choice and same sex marriage.  But is he at least passable on economic matters?


by HSTruman on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 03:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

I think you are right in that he is a social conservative. That doesn't seem to have adversely affected his stance on women's issues so I'm hopeful he'll be reasonable on some others.

He's generally on the right side of corporate and economic issues from what I've read. Although, he is in favor of expanded oil drilling and off-shore oil leases. This is MS, after all.

I plan on going to the next campaign event in my area to get a better feel for his stances on the issues. I hope I get a chance to ask him a question or two.


"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson
by MS01 Indie on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 04:07:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

Women's issues - - what about choice?  Or are you referring to equal pay and the like?  

More broadly, I think Jonathan's point is well taken; this guy (who I am also pretty sure will win) is preferable to another Rethuglican runner-stamp, of which Wicker is the ultimate archetype.  But can we REALLY count on him on cloture votes?  I don't feel like we can count on Landrieu or the "Nelson brothers" on cloture - - so why Musgrove?    


by wavery2001 on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 05:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

Rubber-stamp, not runner-stamp, wihch sounds like some sort of postal service.  :)


by wavery2001 on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 05:28:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

I don't know his stance on choice. I was talking about equal pay and the like. I'm a 61 yr old male. Abortion isn't one of my top issues. I'm open to arguments from every side of the issue, as long as they aren't solely based on religion.

Why do I feel he'd be better on cloture than Wicker? Because, Wickers get a near perfect score as a conservative. A dead dog would be as likely to vote our way as Roger Wicker.


"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson
by MS01 Indie on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 05:38:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

I see; thanks.

Choice is one of my top issues, not simply for the fundamental principle that women should be allowed to control their own bodies, but because far too many of those opposed to choice do not take such a stance on religious grounds. They do it because it's part of a mechanism to control and guard against the empowerment of women, a demographic that they fear.  Anyone interested in equal pay and other women's issues who is, as you say, open to all positions on abortion is - - well, intriguing, frankly.  YMMV, I suppose.

I understand that Musgrove will not be a total rubber-stamp against cloture, as Wicker would be.  I've yet to hear why Musgrove would be reliable vote for cloture.  It probably doesn't matter.  


by wavery2001 on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 06:12:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

He'll be there for y'all on most of the cloture votes that matter including those on unions and healthcare.


Please visit Cotton Mouth to support Mississippi progressives.
by cottonmouthblog on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 07:26:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

He is socially conservative like most of Mississippi and to a large part Democrats in our state for that matter.

He's a good man and y'all should like him for his solid populism.

He publicly endorsed Gore in 2000 so that should show how strong a Democrat he is even if he isn't a "typical" Democrat.


Please visit Cotton Mouth to support Mississippi progressives.
by cottonmouthblog on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 07:25:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

Thanks!

I hadn't seen that scale so it's interesting to consider.


Please visit Cotton Mouth to support Mississippi progressives.
by cottonmouthblog on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 07:21:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

Glad I could help. I'm a fan of your blog.


"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson
by MS01 Indie on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 07:29:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This Dude Will Win (2.00 / 1)

I'm pretty sure this guy will win.

Factor in DSCC money along with a non-Party specific special election ballot and generous name ID on Musgrove's part, and this one's ours.

Here's a shocker from the TX Senate race from Taegan Goddard's "Political Wire" web site:

In Texas, Cornyn in Tight Race for Re-Election

A new Texas Lyceum poll shows Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and challenger Rick Noriega (D) in a statistical dead heat for U.S. Senate.

Cornyn edges Noriega, 38% to 36%, but within the poll's 4.5 point margin of error.

Key findings: 70% of Texans believe the country is on the wrong track and only 23% say "things are moving in the right direction."

Big John's running scared. We'll have him squattin' on his spurs by Labor Day!


by Zeitgeist9000 on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 04:37:40 PM EST

Either way it's going to be super close. (none / 0)


Please visit Cotton Mouth to support Mississippi progressives.
by cottonmouthblog on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 07:28:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

while I wish Musgrove well in Mississippi (certainly he's the best of two evils), I would not put a dime in this man's coffers.

there is a huge leadership gap in this country. After flailing on FISA, I'm again not really excited about the Democratic party currently. It's only because the GOP is so vile that the Democratic party seems good in comparison.

In any regard, my money will go to true progressives this cycle. Not doing so puts the progressive movement in jeopardy for the long term.


!
by alex100 on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 05:34:40 PM EST

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

That certainly makes sense, for you. I'm going to put my money into the presidential race, my state's Senate race, and my congressional district. If there is any left over to give, then I'll look around for true progressives to support financially. I doubt there will be any left over.

I don't really like the fact that I'm supporting someone that I disagree with on so many issues. I'm more of a Wellstone progressive than anything else. However, I've watched this country go downhill since 1980. Saint Ronnie began the process of turning back all of the gains made during the New Deal and those made under Kennedy and Johnson. Only the Clinton years slowed that process.

Unions have been weakened. Corporations have gained more and more power over our society. The MIC has turned into a monster. Eisenhower thought it was bad in his time. It's 10 times worse today. I've watched a fusion of religion with one political party, the Supreme Court turn conservative, much of the good the EPA did rolled back, the Federal bureaucracy turned into political ineptitude, and our country endorsing torture and preemptive war.

How can I not work to banish the party that worked to create this mess? How can anyone not work for that cause?


"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson
by MS01 Indie on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 05:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

Latest poll via Rasmussen, has a statistical tie, Musgrove 48, Wicker 47.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_sena te_elections/mississippi/mississippi_sen ate_musgrove_d_47_wicker_r_462


by conspiracy on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 06:40:38 PM EST

Re: Road to 60: Ronnie Musgrove for Mississippi (none / 0)

Or 47-46. Not that it matters either way but you get the picture.


by conspiracy on Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 06:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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