This week we announced our Road to 60 Act Blue page, an effort to increase the likelihood that there will be 60 members of the Democratic caucus in the Senate during the 111th Congress -- and thus enough strength to overcome the seemingly unending Republican filibuster efforts that have derailed key pieces of legislation on issues ranging from Iraq to the economy to energy to healthcare. With the end of the quarter coming up on Monday night, and campaigns, party committees and other potential supports beginning to make some of the important decisions about where to allocate resources during the final four months of the campaign, the time is NOW to make your voice heard. So please consider helping out the Road to 60 effort today.
Earlier this week Todd introduced Mark Begich of Alaska and I introduced Jim Slattery of Kansas. Now it is my pleasure to introduce Ronnie Musgrove, the former Governor of the state of Mississippi who has a great shot at becoming the first Democrat to win a Senate election in the state since 1982 -- and, in the process, win back Trent Lott's seat.
Musgrove is an important addition to this list. He is one of the key cogs in the Democratic efforts to forge a filibuster-proof supermajority in the Senate. Currently, the polling is fairly consistent in tracking this race: Musgrove is highly competitive -- and might even have a slight advantage over the incumbent Republican, Roger Wicker, who was appointed to his position earlier this year following Trent Lott's decision to leave the Senate to pursue other opportunities. Polling on the race commissioned last month by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee found Musgrove leading by an 8-point margin over Wicker, 48 percent to 40 percent. Research 2000 polling for Daily Kos that included the partisan affiliation of the two candidates (note that party affiliation will not be on the ballot in November, just as it was not in the special election in the state's first congressional district this spring in which Democrat Travis Childers sailed to victory), showed Wicker narrowly leading within the margin of error in May, 46 percent to 42 percent. Rasmussen Reports polling released this month showed Musgrove ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, also within the margin of error.
On top of the polling out of Mississippi showing Musgrove at least competitive with Wicker, and perhaps even ahead, the prospect of the Obama campaign targeting Mississippi, or at least organizing the vote in the state -- the first time a Democratic presidential campaign has really looked at the state in upwards of a generation -- could mean an energized Democratic base, more Democrats voting, and thus an increased likelihood of Musgrove winning. So in short, Musgrove can win.
The Hotline and The Fix both put this race among the 10 most competitive this cycle -- square within the range of the races that the Democrats need to pick up in order to hit the number 60. The Cook Political Report calls the race a "tossup", and though the Rothenberg Political Report gives a "clear advantage" to Wicker in this race (in rankings that came out prior to the release of the three aforementioned polls), all in all it looks like this race really could go either way.
It would be intellectually dishonest to argue that he would be one of the more progressive members of the Senate if elected. In fact, he would likely be one of the most, if not the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus in the chamber if he wins in November. If this were the complete story on the race, I wouldn't be writing this post today asking for support for Musgrove's candidacy. But it isn't the complete story.
First, I have little doubt that Musgrove would be more progressive than Wicker on a range of issues. As such, his election would almost undoubtedly make the entire chamber more progressive (even if it would add another conservative to the Democratic caucus). But more importantly, Musgrove would vote with the Democrats on key procedural votes much more often than Wicker. While Musgrove might not always vote with the party on the underlying measure, he would be a significantly more reliable vote on procedural votes -- cloture votes to help override a Republican filibuster -- than Wicker. This, in and of itself, is reason to support Musgrove.
Beyond that, having a competitive race in Mississippi greatly increases the Democrats' chances nationwide. Mississippi is not the type of state that the Republicans should have to invest in. George W. Bush won in the state easily during both of his presidential runs, and the state has sent two Republicans to the United States Senate for the last two decades.
However, the winds are beginning to blow in the other direction in the state. Last month Travis Childers overwhelmingly won in the state's first congressional district, which tends to lean about 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. The polling on the Wicker-Musgrove race mentioned above underscores this fact.
And because Musgrove is competitive, the Republicans are going to have to dump money into the state -- money they didn't account for going into the state at the beginning of the cycle, money that they can't really afford to spend.
At this point, Wicker has a lot more cash in the bank than does Musgrove, which is about the only saving grace for the GOP in Mississippi at this juncture. But you can help make a difference. Head over to the Road to 60 Act Blue page and make a contribution today. Even $5, $10 or $25 before the end of the day Monday, which marks the end of the filing period for the second quarter of the year, would make a huge difference.
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