MyDD :: Nader and Barr BOTH Siphon From McCain

Nader and Barr BOTH Siphon From McCain - Why?

by campaignmonitor, Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 06:37:36 PM EST

I was digging through the new Bloomberg/LA Times poll today and had an interesting thought based on the following observation in the story:

On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain ... 48% to 33%.

Nader ... and Barr ... both appear to siphon more votes from McCain than they do from Obama. When Nader and Barr are added to the ballot, they draw most of their support from voters who said they would otherwise vote for the Republican.

Now, factor this in to the following with respect to the head-to-head match-up between McCain and Obama:

The great majority of Clinton voters have transferred their allegiance to Obama, the poll found. Only 11% of Clinton voters have defected to McCain.

Based on these numbers, I wonder if the addition of Nader to the mix is siphoning off a large chunk of the 11% of angry Clinton voters that might otherwise choose to support McCain as a second choice in a protest vote resulting from Clinton not getting the nomination.

After all, you'd hope that those 11% would be rational enough to realize that McCain would be disastrous for most of the policy positions that Hillary Clinton supports and that Nader would be much closer to Clinton that McCain would be (at least on most issues).

Could it be possible that in this kind of calculus, Nader could actually be worse for McCain than for Obama?

Hmm...

Tags: Barack Obama, Bob Barr, Election 2008, General Election, Hillary Clinton, Independents, John McCain, Ralph Nader, Republicans (all tags)

Permalink :: 14 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Nader and Barr BOTH Siphon From McCain - Why? (2.00 / 1)

I think you're right. There are some Clinton voters who don't want to vote for Obama but they are not going to vote for a candidate like McCain who is so strongly anti-reproductive rights.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 06:39:45 PM EST

Re: Nader and Barr BOTH Siphon From McCain - Why? (2.00 / 1)

In a word, no. LA Times poll has 37-22 Democrat/Republican partisan makeup. This is probably a tad too high. The 3% & 4% of Barr/ Nader voters is based on about 75 individuals who opt for these candidates. In real life, each would be lucky to get to 2 %, although Barr may get double digits in Georgia. Adjusted for the excessive partisan advantage, Obama is probably ahead by about 10, which in itself is nothing to sneeze at. I'm sure Mark Blumberg, Pablano or Jay Cost will have a more accurate analysis of this before the weekend.

by STUBALL on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 06:45:13 PM EST

Re: Nader and Barr BOTH Siphon From McCain - Why? (2.00 / 1)

Pride and Unity Saves Society - Why?

Yeah, I think a lot of those Nader voters are Clinton enthusiasts who have talked themselves out of McCain but have not talked themselves into Obama. These are strong lefties who felt REALLY jilted by Obama's primary win.

I like baked beans.

by SpideyDem on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 06:49:59 PM EST

Re: Nader and Barr (2.00 / 1)

There are probably Republicans who don't want to vote for McCain but will not vote for Obama. This helps us too.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 06:54:45 PM EST

Re: Nader and Barr (2.00 / 1)

That explains the Barr voters. Not sure it explains the Nader voters. I'm sticking to my completely unsubstantiated guess of an explanation.

I like baked beans.

by SpideyDem on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 06:58:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nader and Barr (none / 0)

I agree with Reaper that there are lots of conservative Republicans who will vote for anyone other than McCain (or Obama, obviously). I think some of them have no idea who Barr or Nader even are, and don't know the positions of either of them. And I think others have learned that "libertarian" is a dirty word, somehow. And the cynic in me thinks the more astute of them are thinking of somehow rewarding Nader for 2000. [I know, I know...ridiculous. I can't help it though!]

by ProgressiveDL on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:16:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nader and Barr BOTH Siphon From McCain - Why? (2.00 / 2)

11% of Clinton voters have transferred to McCain.

I was a quietly hardcore Clinton supporter during the primary, but those folks are off the scale. I can't fathom what issues they believe McCain is more in tune with Hillary than Barack.

It's good we have months to go before the election. Perhaps they will come to their senses.

by RickWn on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 07:09:17 PM EST

PUMA votes (2.00 / 1)

If you think it's about issues, you haven't really seen the vile posts at No Quarter or Alegre's site. It's all about spite. I can't blame them for being pissed, but it's the equivalent of Dean voters in 2004 voting for Bush.

by ProgressiveDL on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:17:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

GOP portrays itself as anti-establishment (none / 0)

This motivates some people to support the GOP.

Some of these voters are vulnerable to being pealed away by anti-establishment minor party candidates.

Obama has a way of beating McCain that some Dems won't like.

If Obama offers to have a debate with Barr (Libertarian), McKinney (Green), Nader (independent) and McCain (GOP), McCain will have a hard time refusing.

What will happen on the stage? It will turn into a four-on-one with everyone berating Bush policies.

The Obama camp knows GOP voters are more disallusioned and vulnerable to being pealed away by minor party candidates.

Also, Obama will look more presidential than the other four.

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.

by Carl Nyberg on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 07:33:38 PM EST

Re: GOP portrays itself as anti-establishment (none / 0)

Wait, why would Dems not like that debate?

by ProgressiveDL on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:17:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP portrays itself as anti-establishment (none / 0)

Letting the Green Party presidential candidate debate will give credibility to Green Party candidates around the country.

And a multi-party debate will generally undermine the two-party system.

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.

by Carl Nyberg on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:55:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP portrays itself as anti-establishment (none / 0)

Wait, I'm a Democrat and I have no problem with a multi-party system. And the Green Party has credibility in the same way that every one-issue party does.

by ProgressiveDL on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 02:29:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nader and Barr BOTH Siphon From McCain - Why? (none / 0)

Result tells you that those voting against Obama are voting AGAINST Obama.

When you increase the number of options these votes randomly spread out because they are not voting FOR McCain.

It also appears to be the case although not from teh above data that Obama voters are voting FOR Obama and not For Obama's platform.

This explains why so many GOP and Greens vote for him.

by dtaylor2 on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:06:56 PM EST

Re: Nader and Barr BOTH Siphon From McCain - Why? (none / 0)

"Obama voters are voting FOR Obama and not For Obama's platform."

That only makes any sense if you are repeating the whole "Messiah" charge, that votes for Obama literally see him as the Second Coming. I think we should start capitalizing pronouns referring to Him, just in case.

by ProgressiveDL on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:19:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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