MyDD :: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll

Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll

by Josh Orton, Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 06:32:31 PM EST

Tracks to the Newsweek poll from last week. And a four-way race helps Obama:

WASHINGTON -- -- Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has captured a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the opening of the general election campaign for president, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.

In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted last weekend.

On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin, 48% to 33%.

Obama's advantage, bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys, appears to stem in large part from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters say Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation's economic problems, the public's top concern.
...
The Times/Bloomberg Poll, conducted under Pinkus' supervision, interviewed 1,115 registered voters across the nation June 19-23. The poll's margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

I can't tell what percent Barr pulls when the poll switches to a four-man contest, but my guess is it's significant.

And as we're seeing over and over, party ID is coming into play:

In this national poll's random sample of voters, 39% identified themselves as Democrats, 22% as Republicans, and 27% as independents. In a similar poll a year ago, 33% identified themselves as Democrats, 28% as Republicans, and 30% as independents.

But just because more and more people are identifying as Democrats doesn't mean we can rest. As we wrote earlier, now is the time to push into races that Republicans aren't expecting to be competitive.

Update [2008-6-24 19:28:34 by Todd Beeton]:And also from the LA Times poll, ladies and gentlemen, I give you Mr. 23%:

The survey found public approval of President Bush's job performance at a new low for the Times/Bloomberg Poll: only 23% approved of the job Bush is doing, and 73% disapproved.

Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, Election 08 (all tags)

Permalink :: 20 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (2.00 / 2)

The poll found that only 11% of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain. I think this will decline even further.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 06:38:18 PM EST

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (2.00 / 1)

I think there will be a small, refractory percentage (Dixiecrats, Hillis44,...). There always is. But 11% is already really low, and by the convention, I too expect that number to be even lower, perhaps at 5%.

I'll chide those who thought this guy couldn't win no way no how, and it is still along way to November, but...

I think one of the most important points at this time is there is no evidence that Obama is campaigning like he is 12% ahead.

I attended PUMACon '08!!!

by iohs2008 on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 08:49:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (2.00 / 1)

You can't go out on the limb, Josh, but I can.

In the four-way, I see it that 1% of Barack's support goes to Nader and 4% of McCain's support goes to Barr.

Amazing to me that anyone would vote for either of those minor party candidates, but this is a democracy so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

by RickWn on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 06:49:04 PM EST

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (2.00 / 1)

I always look at the "cares more about people like you" question. It is what George W. Bush did well on even when people disagreed with his policies, and what the past two Democrat nominees did relatively poorly on.

Obama bested McCain by 50 to 23 percent--among males by 42 to 27 percent and females by 56 to 20 percent. That says a lot to me about John McCain's difficulties as a presidential candidate and does say something about Obama's prospects in the fall, in spite of the fact it is only June.

by Makey on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 07:12:26 PM EST

Difference in these vs tracking? (none / 0)

I wonder why these types of polls seem so different than the tracking polls.

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

by fbihop on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 07:17:01 PM EST

Re: Difference in these vs tracking? (2.00 / 3)

I think tracking polls are designed to be compared with the same poll so you can see movement over time.

Like the gallup tracking poll took a sample and made sure it was consistent, even after other polls were correcting their models, so that you could see day-to-day changes. Am I right? I think I am. But I'm not sure. Why am I writing this if I'm not sure? Could I just be typing for the hell of it? Maybe that time my boyfriend wanted to just look at the waterfall and I wanted to talk about it could have been avoided with a little introspection.

You and your personal questions!

We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.

by Jess81 on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 07:24:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (2.00 / 3)

It's like I am living in some kind of fantasy world. Remember the sinsiter Republican trifecta that ruled this nation a few years ago? With the 90%+ approval rating? It will all be a distant memory.

www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com

by LandStander on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 07:56:06 PM EST

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (none / 0)

The real question is, who the heck are the 23% that approve of Bush?? And why? Do that many people really think Iraq is going well? Or are they excited about upcoming vetoes? I mean, what has Bush actually accomplished in the last year or so? I know the surge has stemmed the violence to a certain extent, but it's not as if Iraq is suddenly gumballs and lollipops.

by ProgressiveDL on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:22:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (none / 0)

I know some who support Bush because of Iraq. They regularly rail against "Defeatists." They will endure any domestic, economic, or ethical abomination because they believe in the "war on terror" [sic]. They really don't believe in active government on the side and they don't mind being in bed with the fundies as long Iraq moves "forward."

by InigoMontoya on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:34:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (2.00 / 2)

It's great to see so many people recognizing what a great candidate we have. Keep fighting.

by Politicalslave on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 08:04:58 PM EST

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (none / 0)

It is looking more and more like this isn't an outlier but just the Clinton folks taking a tad longer to come around because of the schedule. I bet if you time the length of the ACTUAL primary battle with the bounce it would be spot on.

Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome

by kasjogren on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:19:41 PM EST

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (none / 0)

McGaffe doesn't know which holes to plug, he's only got so many fingers...red states that are competitive, evangelical vote, money, latino vote, Dubya, Charlie Black, no economic plan, no healthcare plan, a base that isn't fired up, etc...I don't know how his hand becomes a winner.

A useless "Community Organizer" from Pennsylvania as noted by Republicans, Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin

by hootie4170 on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:23:06 PM EST

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (none / 0)

Even a terrorist attack or some other national security alert seems unlikely to tip the scales enough to doom Obama. More realistically, we have 4 months of non-stop Obama bashing coming at us - which makes me forever grateful to Hillary Clinton for giving our eventually nominee such a rough time of things. The American public seems to like consuming bullshit instead of news, but not the same bullshit over and over again. Wright? Ayers? Muslims? Been there, done that - what do you have to shock me TODAY?

If the Clinton juggernaut didn't find any other game changing vulnerabilities, I'm not so sure the Republican machine can either. They will just waste millions bashing the most popular politician in a generation with the same old attack lines (and a few custom made ones just for the black guy, especially once they get desperate - which should be any day now).

www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com

by LandStander on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:36:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (2.00 / 1)

I agree with people don't like re-hashed news, and I also think a majority of voters are tuning in more and will be able to separate the bullshit from the issues. Problem with Repugs is the are relying on the same strategy (smears, fear mongering) and I think the voters are tired of it, and want something new. They never thought they would have to defend Georgia, North Dakota, Alaska, North Carolina...we are witnessing a brand new campaign strategy that will become the blueprint for both parties for years to come.

A useless "Community Organizer" from Pennsylvania as noted by Republicans, Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin

by hootie4170 on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:49:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (none / 0)

good article

Flashlights helicopter video game

by analyfjks on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:34:30 PM EST

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (none / 0)

Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!

by John in Chicago on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:45:58 PM EST

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (none / 0)

Two polls in the double digits. Starting to look like a trend.

by thinman on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 09:49:48 PM EST

High protest levels (none / 0)

An absolute majority (51%) of McCain voters are unenthusiastic.

7% of self-identified conservatives are opting for Nader.

Voters split 5 ways in the 4-way, with 2% "other" (plus 10% "don't know") ... and that's a leaned 4-way.

Obama gets 33% of Independents. That's not as bad as it sounds (many habitual Republican voters are shedding the damaged brand and calling themselves Indies), but it's not good.

Over all, you've got 9% protest (Nader, Barr, other), 10% Don't Know, and 9% clothes-pin ("very" unenthusiastic about their major party favorite).

¡Si, soy PUMA!

by RonK Seattle on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 11:37:40 PM EST

Re: Obama Up 12 In LA Times/Bloomberg Poll (none / 0)

courtesy http://Pollster.com, who understand how to report polling data

Obama 49, McCain 37
Obama 48, McCain 33, Nader 4, Barr 3

This is not the typical supposition about Barr and Nader.

by phillies on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 04:04:49 AM EST

Nader beats Barr among ... (none / 0)

... Democrats, Republicans, Liberals, Moderates, Conservatives, and Women.

Barr leads among Independents and Men.

In a 4-way race, McCain loses 13% of his 2-way votes (suggesting a significant share of McCain voters are anti-Obama rather than pro-McCain).