Tracks to the Newsweek poll from last week. And a four-way race helps Obama:
WASHINGTON -- -- Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has captured a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the opening of the general election campaign for president, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted last weekend.
On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin, 48% to 33%.
Obama's advantage, bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys, appears to stem in large part from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters say Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation's economic problems, the public's top concern.
...
The Times/Bloomberg Poll, conducted under Pinkus' supervision, interviewed 1,115 registered voters across the nation June 19-23. The poll's margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
I can't tell what percent Barr pulls when the poll switches to a four-man contest, but my guess is it's significant.
And as we're seeing over and over, party ID is coming into play:
In this national poll's random sample of voters, 39% identified themselves as Democrats, 22% as Republicans, and 27% as independents. In a similar poll a year ago, 33% identified themselves as Democrats, 28% as Republicans, and 30% as independents.
But just because more and more people are identifying as Democrats doesn't mean we can rest. As we wrote earlier, now is the time to push into races that Republicans aren't expecting to be competitive.
Update [2008-6-24 19:28:34 by Todd Beeton]:And also from the LA Times poll, ladies and gentlemen, I give you Mr. 23%:
The survey found public approval of President Bush's job performance at a new low for the Times/Bloomberg Poll: only 23% approved of the job Bush is doing, and 73% disapproved.
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