SUSA Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47

by Davidsfr, Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 02:59:08 PM EST

That according to a poll just released.

As a stalwart republican state, Obama having any lead in the state at all bodes very well. I wouldn't rule out his taking  the state, although I think it more likely he ends up about 3-5 points behind.

Nevertheless, a most encouraging result. No let's hope SUSA doesn't get in too much trouble for robopolling in Indiana, where the practice is legally forbidden.


Poll
Who Will Win Indiana in the GE?
McCain
Obama
Barr
Nader

Votes: 16
Results : Vote Link : Polls


Tags: SUSA, polls, Indiana, Obama, McCain (all tags)

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Re: SUSA Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47 (none / 0)

SUSA may do old fashioned human being telephone calls for states that forbid it.

This is encouraging but keep in mind SUSA has a terrible track record with this state during the dem primary.


by Homebrewer on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:03:40 PM EST

They robocalled during the primary (none / 0)

They and Rasmussen both, and the state AG was taking action against them.

SUSA doesn't have the resources to do personal interview polls, so any poll they release is automated.

Also, their problem with Indiana in the primary was that they understated Obama's support, so I wouldn't be much concerned about that.


by Davidsfr on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:07:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47 (none / 0)

Unless the Barr effect is greater than anticipated (and I hope to hell it is), I don't see Obama winning Indiana.

I'd love to be wrong though.


Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!
by John in Chicago on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:18:50 PM EST

Re: SUSA Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47 (none / 0)

I'd agree it is more unlikely that likely, for sure.  But I'd imagine he has a strong infrastructure there, given the primary and the fact that its right next to Illinois.  

Given how close the state is, I think that if Evan Bayh winds up as VP, Obama has an excellent shot here.  

Although I don't really want Bayh as VP.


John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way
by bosdcla14 on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:26:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47 (none / 0)

Although I don't really want Bayh as VP.

Agreed 100%. Bayh is a Bush Dog and Indiana certainly isn't worth having him on the ticket.


Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!
by John in Chicago on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:46:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47 (2.00 / 1)

Survey USA did a pretty good job polling Indiana during the primaries, with one exception: they significantly underestimated African-American turnout (they thought it would be 10% and turned out to be 17%).  Look at the rest of the poll and they got almost everything else right.

Checked this latest poll to find out what they were projecting AA turnout would be.  7%.  Indiana's AA population is 9.5%.  While Obama has a lot of ground to cover before the general, I could see him pulling  off an upset.  First, AA turnout in the general might be as high as 10%.  

Second, all of the polls I've seen up until now have this odd phenomenon where a suspiciously large percentage of AA voters tell pollsters they aren't voting for Obama or are undecided (and I have a suspicion that approx. 10-20% of these voters are simply lying, because when election days comes Obama always seems to get these votes).

Obama, in other words, might already be over the 50% mark (and pollsters don't know how to estimate AA turnout or record voter preference).  But, as always, the only poll which matters is the one in November.  


by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:44:28 PM EST

Have also noticed that (none / 0)

I think he could actually hit 95% and the AA percentage of the electorate may even top 15%. When you consider that in 2004 those numbers were Kerry 88, Bush 11, out of 11% you see how significant that would be.


by conspiracy on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 04:54:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47 (none / 0)

Wow, Indiana hasn't gone Democratic since 1964 and once since like 1948. If McCain is losing in Indiana, we could be in a historical landslide realigning election.


Dizzy Zzyzzy
by Zzyzzy on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 05:07:57 PM EST

Re: SUSA Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47 (2.00 / 1)

It seems like when anyone talks about how Indiana votes reliably GOP for president, the reason is just because it's traditional.  I suspect alot of it is because Democrats haven't bothered campaigning there, something which is changing this time around.  I'm not necessarily putting money on Obama winning Indiana, but we should remember that even California and Vermont voted reliably for the GOP until 1992.  With a change election looming, historical shifts are quite possible in states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana.


by CA Pol Junkie on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 05:54:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47 (none / 0)

It's a tough one, but within the realm of possibility.

See my diary on this topic:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/9/14344 2/2423

Yeah, I know, I know.  Shameless self-promotion.


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Wed Jun 25, 2008 at 12:20:22 PM EST


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