MyDD :: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama

New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama

by NeciVelez, Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 06:45:55 AM EST

Good news for Barack Obama and very bad news for John McCain.
Contrary to polls discussed during the primary season, it looks like McCain's purported strength among Latinos/Hispanics was an illusion.

National Poll Shows That Latino Voters Favor Obama Over McCain
June 16, 2008

Latino voters favor Obama over McCain, according to Latino Decisions Poll.

A new national survey of Latino voters shows Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama with a nearly 3-to-1 advantage over his rival, Republican John McCain.

http://www.pacificmarketresearch.com/ld/ poll_national.html

Latino Decisions, in conjunction with Pacific Market Research specializes in research examining Latino participation at the state level. The poll was conducted June 1-12. The sample size was 800 registered voters and was conducted in either Spanish or English.

The survey found that 60 percent of Latinos planned to vote for Obama, compared to 23 percent for McCain, while 16
percent were undecided.

So even if all the undecideds opted for McCain, Obama would still lead by 21%.

It reached 800 Latino registered voters in 21 states. Among Democrats, the survey found that 57 percent had supported Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton during primary contests versus 35 percent for Obama. During those months, many political observers questioned whether Obama would successfully woo Latino voters. The results of the survey clearly suggest the Latino vote was not anti-Obama during the primaries, and that going into the general election, he has easily built a large lead among Latino voters.

This analysis buries the oft touted meme of Latino bias against Obama due to his race. Yes, many Latinos knew Senator Clinton well, voted for her in the primary, but I read these numbers as a support for the important issues the Democratic Party represents for Latinos - the economy, health care, education, and the war.

What I like about this poll is that it delves a bit deeper into who are these "Latinos", not the simplistic research done by other firms.

Obama's lead among Latinos is consistent among those born in the U.S. as well as those born abroad. Among U.S.-born Latinos, Obama leads McCain 57 percent to 26 percent, and among foreign-born Latinos, 64 percent to 21 percent.

I would love to get a look at a breakdown of the "born abroad data" by nationality since Obama does even better among that group.

Likewise, Obama does well among Latinos across many states. In California, he leads 66 percent to 20 percent; in New York, 65 percent to 20 percent; in Texas, 61 percent to 22 percent. Combining data in the four southwestern states expected to be key battlegrounds -- New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada -- Obama leads McCain 57 percent to 31 percent among Latino voters. In Florida, where about half of Latino voters are Cuban-American, Obama has 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent. The poll's margin of error is 3.5 percent.

In 2008, the Latino vote is expected to increase to 9 million or roughly 8 percent of voters. By comparison, 7.6 million Latinos voted in 2004 and 5.9 million in 2000.

If GOTV efforts succeed, these figures could get better.

Here is the data they presented:

If the 2008 election for President were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE: Republican John McCain OR Democrat Barack Obama], for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?

    Obama     McCain     Undecided
All Latino RVs     60%     23%     16%
Likely Voters     63%     24%     13%
Men     61%     25%     13%
Women     60%     21%     19%
US Born     57%     26%     17%
Foreign Born     64%     21%     15%
18 - 39     65%     22%     12%
40 - 59     62%     22%     16%
60 & over     54%     27%     19%
Less $40,000     66%     19%     15%

$40,000 to $79,999
     62%     23%     15%
Over $80,000     60%     29%     11%
Democrats     79%     9%     12%
Independents     42%     26%     32%
Republicans     15%     71%     14%
California     66%     20%     14%
New York     65%     20%     15%
Texas     61%     22%     16%
Florida     43%     42%     15%
Southwest states (AZ, CO, NM, NV)
     57%     31%     11%

Of interest in these figures - Obama is pulling 15% of Latino Republicans, whereas McCain gets only 9% of Dems.

Florida is the biggest surprise, showing that Obama and McCain are neck and neck, indicating both a shift in Cuban American voting patterns, and more than likely a reflection of other Latinos, like Puerto Ricans and Dominicans who have moved to FL.
The Obama campaign should continue to target FL because this voting block could be a key to his success there, and this will certainly put a strain on McCain's Hispanic outreach.

Texas is also great news. If these figures hold - combined with Obama's strong support among AA's - do we see a chance here of turning red TX blue?

I realize that we can't put too much faith in polls, it is early yet, and this is just one poll, though it seems to be in line with other recently released survey data. Will continue to follow their polling data as we move forward.

Si Se Puede! Obamanos!

(cross posted at Daily Kos)

Tags: 2008 General Election, poll, Latinos, Hispanics, Barack Obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 27 Comments :: Post a Comment

Tips and mojo, Obamanos! n/t (2.00 / 9)

Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

by NeciVelez on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 06:47:04 AM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (2.00 / 4)

Great news. Thank you for the informative diary.

by Politicalslave on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 07:01:37 AM EST

You are welcome :) (2.00 / 1)

I wasn't sure if this had been posted here already - tried to search and didn't see anything.

But if we can get Latinos out to the polls this really is good news. Voter turnout for Latinos in some areas has been sluggish in the past, but I think this election may prove to be different.

Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

by NeciVelez on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 07:07:48 AM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (2.00 / 2)

This is quite astounding figures.

by Makey on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 07:50:31 AM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (2.00 / 1)

Yup. And they will get better I believe.

Just goes to show that the primary really doesn't reflect the GE.

Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

by NeciVelez on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 07:52:42 AM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (2.00 / 4)

The only Hispanic community with a large Republican ID in the country is among South Florida Cubans and Venezuelans. The Florida numbers in this survey are very encouraging. A lot of the shift is due to a huge influx of Puerto Ricans and Dominicans to the Orlando area which is displacing NYC as the preferred destination of immigrants from these 2 islands.

But things are changing in Miami as well. Obama got a warm and enthusiastic reception from the CANF (Cuban American National Foundation) which was a total shocker. Even among Cuban Republicans Bush is unpopular and voters are fed up and ready for change. Younger Cubans attitudes have been shifting away from the attitudes of the ultra-right wing old guard and the latin population now includes large numbers of Colombians, Nicaraguans, Argentines, Brazilians, Dominicans and Venezuelans.

We have 3 great candidates that have the first real chance in a generation to turn the South Florida congressional delegation blue and that could have a huge impact on the GE in Florida.

A small contribution could go a long way:

Joe Garcia: http://www.joegarcia08.com/
Former head of the South Florida Democratic party and executive director of the CANF. Garcia's election to head the CANF pissed off hard-liners and caused friction between the organization and the Diaz-Balarts. A sign of the shifting politics in the Cuban community.

Raul Martinez: http://www.raul2008.com/
(Raul hosted Hillary at his home for a fundraiser during the primary, time to return the favor)
Elected 9 times as mayor of Hialeah a heavily Republican city that has the largest Cuban-American population in South Florida. Raul is hugely popular with Democrats, Independents and Republicans in Hialeah.

Annette Taddeo: http://www.votetaddeo.com/
A successful entrepreneur named one of the "Top 50 Latina Entrepreneurs in the US" by Hispanic Magazine. Annette is a Colombian American (Colombians may by now be the second largest Hispanic group after Cubans in South Florida).

by hankg on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 08:46:11 AM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (none / 0)

Much like the diarist, I would be very interested to see polls of Latinos broken down by nationality. I'm intruged by your statement that Venezuelans trend Republican -- any idea why?

The fact is that most polling tends to treat Spanish-speakers as a sort of monolith, which, I believe, is a mistake. It is true that there are many commonalities between Latin Americans in the US -- language, a tradition of Catholicism, often recent experience (oneself or one's immediate family) with immigration. It is not true, however, that there are no differences of culture and values between the countries from which Hispanic immigrants to the US originate: just on the basis of what one might broadly call "race", a great many Carribean Hispanics are Black, Central American Hispanics almost all have Native ancestry, and Argentinians tend to be phenotypically White. This, of course, is a simplification, and it's only one small factor, used to illustrate a point.

Voters from El Salvador are going to have different concerns than those from Mexican border towns, if just by dint of different environmental and cultural experiences. Given that Hispanics are the second-largest ethnic group in America, and it is a group largely made up of recent immigrants and their children, I think it would be very interesting to get a more in-depth breakdown of their voting patterns and economic behaviors.

The problem with political jokes is that they often get elected to office.

by Roy G Biv on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 01:38:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (2.00 / 1)

In Miami a lot of Venezuelans are middle class professionals and small business owners fleeing Chavez. Like the first wave of Cubans having had there livelihood destroyed and having a difficult time rebuilding their careers and lives they are suspicious of anything that sounds vaguely populist or leftist. They tend to see Republicans as tougher against Chavez and as stronger anti-communists.

After the collapse of the Argentine economy under the conservative Menem government there was a flood of Argentine immigrants into Miami. Since they were screwed by a right wing government they tended to be more leftist in their views. Chileans and Brazilians come from countries with successful moderate leftist governments presiding over thriving economies and it often shows in their political views.

If you go to a really wealthy neighborhood like Key Biscayne attitudes will be much more conservative as a lot of the people living there are members of the wealthy families that make up the Latin American oligarchy.

I don't have polling to back this up. It's just my personal anecdotal experience, also Miami is not typical of other heavily Hispanic cities, aside from the special case of the Cuban exile community there is also a large Hispanic middle class and a community of uber-wealthy Hispanics. Hispanics are not an underclass here as they are in many parts of the country.

by hankg on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 02:59:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (2.00 / 1)

Unfortunately the poll doesn't tell us much about the issues that may motivate Latinos to support McCain or Obama. And it leaves out discussion of the critical case of Florida, in which Cubans have typically overwhelmingly supported the GOP.

Nontheless this is encouraging for Obama.

by Juris on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 08:48:23 AM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (2.00 / 2)

I should have written, that it doesn't break down the Latino vote in Florida by nationality. That would have been especially interesting.

by Juris on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 08:49:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (2.00 / 2)

Obama is not going to win majorities of Cubans and Venezuelans in South Florida. However he can do better, maybe much better then Kerry did and downticket Democrats Garcia, Martinez and Taddeo have a real chance to win their congressional races.

Despite the fact that other Hispanic groups in South Florida are growing rapidly making Cubans a smaller % of the total Latino population Cubans remain the biggest voting block as they get fast tracked to citizenship.

In South Florida Haitians are probably the second largest immigrant group and they are solidly behind Obama and the huge influx of Dominicans and Puerto Ricans to Central Florida has remade the map up there. 10 years ago you could not find a Latin restaurant in Orlando now the much of the area looks like San Juan or Santo Domingo.

Lots of reason for optimism. See my post up thread and go donate.

by hankg on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 09:12:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Am contacting the researchers (2.00 / 1)

to see what additional data was collected that was not available in the published summaries.

Since they collected information on foreign born - versus US, they may have it by Nationality.

Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

by NeciVelez on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 09:21:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Am contacting the researchers (none / 0)

Thanks a lot. It's my understanding in any case that the generational divide that is often seen among the Mexican American commnity (with young people being overwhelmingly favorable to Obama) even exists within the Cuban commnity, but perhaps it's more muted there.

by Juris on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 09:47:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (none / 0)

On motivation, older Cubans, Venezuelans and Colombians tend to see the war on terror as including the fight against Castro, Chavez and the FARC in Colombia. Even many who are fed up with the Republicans and think Bush has done an awful job think McCain will be 'tougher' on Castro and Chavez and provide more support to Uribe.

It's a question for those types of voters of convincing them of the incompetence and failure of Republican policy in this area and how the Democrats have a more effective and smarter foreign policy. Tough talk is cheap it's results that matter and the Republicans have been all talk and no results.

by hankg on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 09:20:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (none / 0)

My hunch is that the opposite is true among some other Latino communities, in which the "big foot" American imperialistic image is a real negative. And for this reason, an Obama is more likely to be appealing than McCain's more militaristic orientation toward foreign policy. While Obama was born in Hawaii, he also lived abroad and can better empathize with how "others" view American foreign policy.

by Juris on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 09:53:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (none / 0)

It's actually a lot closer to the reasons anglo-Americans vote. In Miami wealthy neighborhoods like Key Biscayne and Coral Gables have a majority Hispanic population. There are also large middle class neighborhoods like Kendall and Doral that are Hispanic. You won't find many Hispanic neighborhoods populated by millionaires and upper middle class professionals and business owners in other parts of the country. Wealthy neighborhoods tend to be more Republican.

The Castro and Chavez issue skews things a bit with poorer Cuban and Venezuelan voters but it's mostly about the economy, health care, etc. just like for other Americans.

by hankg on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 10:07:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (none / 0)

I did a survey a few years ago in which one of the questions was this: "How much responsibility does the U.S. bear for the hatred that led to the terrorist attacks?" (A lot, some, a little, none).

It was a national survey but included substantial African American and Hispanic subsamples. Overall, 55% of the respondents (weighted) said that the U.S. bears some or a lot of responsibility. The most common reasons had to do with either our middle east policies or our economic policies. (Middle east did not include references to Iraq war, at least not in the first version of the survey, which was conducted in 2001-2.)

Among African Americans the poercentage was more like 65% and among Hispanics it was about 75%.

Thus, although the question did not expressly refer to "blame," but to the more ambiguous "responsibility," the answers imply that Hispanics in particular are sensitive to (and judge more negatively) America's foreign policy. This was true both for foreign born and U.S. born Hispanics.

This despite the fact, which you also imply, that Hispanics are very similar to whites/Anglos in other attitudes (following the economic spectrum), and perhaps even more conservative on the so-called 'family values' issues.

It's on this basis that I am suggesting (but can't prove) that Obama is likely to be especially attractive for his less parochial orientation toward the rest of the world, including the third world.

by Juris on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 12:20:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Issues (none / 0)

Though this poll doesn't address issues - those by Pew, and other groups who focus on Latino voting show that although somee politicians tend to place all their eggs into the wedge issue of immigration the priorities of Latinos are similar to other folks

1. the economy
2 the war
3 health care
4 education

Another problem is that because the category Latino or Hispanic is discussed as a monolith - the subtleties of difference get lost.

Puerto Ricans - as citizens don't spend much time on immigration reform.

Cuban-Americans - though moved to vote Republican for years by hatred of Fidel, are changing over time.

Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

by NeciVelez on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 09:37:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Most poll numbers... (2.00 / 2)

...have been surprisingly good. I'm sure some of this bounce is "green screen" related as McCain's numbers have cratered. I think that with some of his recent performances, fairly or not, McCain is being perceived as not up to the minimal standards.

I think most people vote "turns" and such as opposed to ideology (that would not cover the blogosophere or talk radio). It certainly seems like any general feeling that he was "next" was negated by really weak performances in speeches.

It makes me optimistic about the debates.

Visiting the hopium dens proudly since 2007.

by AZphilosopher on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 08:50:14 AM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (2.00 / 1)

I think more of the bounce is due to those voters who were for Senator Clinton, shifting over to Senator Obama.

Though McCain flip-flops, and lackluster performance on the stump doesn't help him either.

Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

by NeciVelez on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 09:43:08 AM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (none / 0)

i think everyone would piss themselves if Texas went blue. But it think its slowly getting purple. combine hispanics and AAs and you certainly have a majority of the state. By the next election we should see a big increase of eligible voters, hispanic wise.

High turnout is key.

[i had read through Hispanic Pew Research, that at the end of 2007, before the economy really went to hell, the nummber one issue was......education.]

by alyssa chaos on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 11:53:14 AM EST

Latinos 3-1 for Obama (none / 0)

Even with a giant grain of salt, this is encouraging news.

(I just had a brief, giddy dream of a blue Texas.)

He's got to keep working.

Rec'd.

What is The October Protocol?

by Koan on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 01:15:08 PM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (none / 0)

I wrote something about this at my blog earlier about this as it relates to New Mexico.

I am not completely confident you can draw specific numbers from the poll for New Mexico. But generally, one can say New Mexican Latinos seem to voting for Obama at least at the same rate as they did for Kerry.

I wonder what the numbers in the other states polled look like as compared to the 2004 election...

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

by fbihop on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 03:39:51 PM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (1.00 / 1)

I don't believe the polls, not based on what I see in Los Angeles where the neighborhood I live in is certainly not white bread by any definition, and you can find Hillary signs still outnumbering Obama by a substantial margin, except in the A/A sections as one would expect. Hispanics still overwhelmingly support Hillary and favor McCain over Obama wherever I go in the local area, and even the local radio talkshows like JOHN & KEN just do not see the Latino community coming out for Obama no matter what, dismissing polls like these as people saying one thing then doing the opposite in the privacy of the voting booths.

I believe much of what the polls reflect is soft support, not genuine support, as its pretty much understood in general that to say you're against Obama is pretty much tantamount to admitting one is a racist. People are more afraid of being tagged as such, and so I don't believe we're going to see one honest poll until November, when everyone will have complete privacy to express what they really think.

At that point, Obama will either win big or - more like in my estimation - lose big and destroy any hopes of ever running for President again. Given the fact he has so far refused to show any leadership on issues that matter most to progressives, his defeat will be no big loss from my viewpoint. If he's going to be a faux-Republican, why vote for the fake when you can get the real deal, and that's what most Americans will see.

by SoCalHillMan on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 05:28:48 PM EST

Re: New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama (2.00 / 1)

Here on the East Coast Obama New York and Miami it's overwhelmingly for Obama among my Hispanic family and friends. The polls show him 2-1 and 3-1 crushing McCain. Even in Miami he is running even.

Sorry, I'll take the polls over your biased wishful thinking.

by hankg on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 07:18:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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