Boyda Looks Real Strong in Kansas

I have been writing quite a bit about Kansas in recent weeks and months, both on the Senate level, where former Democratic Congressman Jim Slattery is hoping to become the first member of the party since 1932 to win a Senate election in the state, and on the presidential level, where it appears Barack Obama might have a shot at victory -- or at least the opportunity to put John McCain on his heels in yet another state. Now here's polling on the most competitive (at least theoretically) House race in the state:

Anzalone Liszt Research (D) for Cong. Nancy Boyda

Nancy Boyda vs. Jim Ryun

Nancy Boyda (D): 54 percent
Jim Ryun (R): 37 percent
Undecided: 9 percent

Nancy Boyda vs. Lynn Jenkins

Nancy Boyda (D): 57 percent
Lynn Jenkins (R): 27 percent
Undecided: 15 percent

According to this polling, which I slightly reformatted but did not otherwise alter for the purposes of this post, Boyda is trouncing both the former Representative for this district (Ryun) and the state Treasurer (Jenkins) in head-to-head polling. Do recall that according to the Cook Political Report this race is a "tossup", and this district leans about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. Then again, if the Democrats could overwhelmingly win in Mississippi's first congressional district, which tends to lean about 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole, perhaps it's time to re-think the way folks are rating these races.

Regardless, I think these numbers underscore an important point: Kansas isn't the overwhelmingly red state it once was. Is it still more red than blue? No doubt. But just as Mark Warner helped move Virginia from a red state to a purple one, so too has Kathleen Sebelius, the popular Democratic Governor of Kansas, helped move her state from being a deep red state to a reddish-purple. Don't believe the trend? In 2006, the Democrats received a remarkable 49.6 percent of the two-party congressional vote, which is about as close to even as you're going to get.   The state isn't quite there yet, but I will say this: Boyda is looking strong, Slattery has a real fighting chance, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if Obama did what was only done four times during the 20th century: earn 45 percent or more of the vote in Kansas as the Democratic nominee, thus putting the state on the map in the presidential election.



Display:


Re: Boyda Looks Real Strong in Kansas (none / 0)

Is Jim Ryun in the Top a Dem or a GOPer?  


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 08:46:07 AM EST

Re: Boyda Looks Real Strong in Kansas (none / 0)

Ryun's a particularly dense GOPer who Boyda ousted in one of the biggest surprises in 2006.  The reason why people had been calling the race a toss-up was that Boyda unseating Ryun was such a surprise in a relatively red district that it seemed something of a fluke.  Then again, Kansas's Fightin' 2nd, with a PVI of R+7, is just as Republican as the Louisiana district Don Cazayoux (D-LA) won in the special election of a few months ago, and not as red as the Mississippi district Travis Childers just won (PVI of +10).  Boyda will win going away.


When I grow up, I want to be a superdelegate!
by robitude on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 10:04:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary demonstrated a populist message can win (none / 0)

If she had picked up that message earlier, she'd probably be the nominee right now.

All the Demcorats should run on populism this fall.


by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 08:54:23 AM EST

BO has no shot in Kansas (2.00 / 2)

I'm sorry, I would love to believe that- but come on.  It's not going to happen. You know it and I know it. McCain has been polling between 10 and 20 points ahead in the state for the last 6 months (with the occasional outlier dipping under 10).  His (Obama's) RCP Average is in the 30's.  This means, in my opinion, based on primary races with similar demographics (I know that this isn't exactly precise)- he would actually get LESS than the average that he is polling (by a few points).  Therefore, unless you have some crystal ball that you aren't telling anyone about- these stories are getting lame.  Obama might win all the red states!!  Yeah, he might.  I might win the lottery too- but I'm not gonna write any stories about that.  
Sorry- getting sick of not knowing what's real and what's hyperbole.
by easyE on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 09:41:51 AM EST

Re: BO has no shot in Kansas (none / 0)

You're probably right, but Obama's RCP polling average in Kansas (39%) is a bit better than Kerry's (37%), Gore's (37%), or even Bill Clinton's (36% in 1996, 34% in 1992 with Perot getting 27%) final results.  It may be in the 30s, but 39% to McCain's 49%, holding McCain under 50%, is nothing to sneeze at.  Every little bit helps, especially with a tough but potentially-winnable Senate race in the offing.


When I grow up, I want to be a superdelegate!
by robitude on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 10:17:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

that senate race... (none / 0)

...will be very hard for Slattery to win.  Although, I suspect that Slattery will do better than expected.

The point of that race is to prepare the state for Kathleen Sebelius (the current governor) to run for senate in 2010.


d
by d on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 10:31:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BO has no shot in Kansas (none / 0)

Except the last four polls out of Kansas have shown Josh McCain at 47 percent, 45 percent, 51 percent, and 49 percent, respectively -- well below the 62 percent George W. Bush received in the state in 2004.


My Direct Democracy
by Jonathan Singer on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 10:30:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

being from the 2nd District in Kansas, (2.00 / 2)

I would not put much faith in this polling.  If Nancy Boyda hangs on to win re-election, it will be by a narrow margin.  Even though people may approve of her, I still suspect that they would prefer to have a republican doing the job instead of her.  And that Lynn Jenkins (more of a traditional moderate republican) would be the harder candidate for Boyda to beat.

As far as Kansas overall voting for Obama,  I do not think there is much chance of that- although I do think he will win more counties than Kerry(John Kerry only won in two counties).

I do think it is possible for obama to get around 45% of the vote statewide.


d
by d on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 10:26:40 AM EST

This Kansan knows: KS Dems are DINOs (2.00 / 1)

They are not your east coast or west coast type of Democrat.  

They are centrists -- plain and simple -- Sebelius, Boyda, Moore, etc.  They get the KS Democrat vote because -- there aren't that many Democrats in KS.  They get elected because they run as a centrist/moderate, thus pulling in the disgusted-with-the-KS-GOP-party moderate GOP vote.  Boyda, Moore, Sebelius all have good ratings and get re-elected because: 1) they are low key (and perceived as low risk) and 2) their votes straddle the middle (again keeping the GOP moderate vote).  If Slattery came follow this game plan, and Roberts continues his dementia, then Slattery has a good chance.

Don't be misled by the "easy" categorization analyses in this diary.  Sebelius' recent environmental veto succeeded by slim margins.  This is still a solid GOP state, although not as hard core conservative as it has been. Start to go left of center, start to go progressive, start to go into unchartered/unfamiliar ground (a la an Obama presidency...) and it starts to fall apart.


by dcrolg on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 11:04:41 AM EST

i disagree... (none / 0)

...with calling Democrats in Kansas "DINO"'s.

I find that to be a derogatory term that, in general, does not apply to these elected representatives.  They rarely, if ever, talk badly about the Democratic party.

I consider them solid Democrats that instead of taking the easy road of being elected as Republicans, they decided to get elected the hard way in Kansas by running as Democrats.


d
by d on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 11:25:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

check their platforms and their votes (none / 0)

they run a narrow thin line -- right of center.
They're DINOs.
The democrats in Topeka know it cold.
by dcrolg on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 11:27:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree (none / 0)

Especially with Obama as a native son.


by activatedbybush on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 11:45:28 AM EST

???... Native by way of....??? (2.00 / 1)

Was he raised here? no.
Did he go to high school here? no.
KU? K State? no.
Live here now? no.

Rob Dole -- all of the above -- native son.
Eisenhower - 2 of 4 - native son.

Native son?  What did being born and raised in IL do to help Hillary??

native son...jeez...


by dcrolg on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 11:31:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Agree (none / 0)

Obama has NEVER lived in Kansas.


by Xov Wonk on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 11:33:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 45% of the Vote (none / 0)

I wouldn't at all be surprised if Obama did what was only done four times during the 20th century: earn 45 percent or more of the vote in Kansas as the Democratic nominee

That's still a loser in anyone's book.


by Xov Wonk on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 11:35:32 PM EST


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