I have been writing quite a bit about Kansas in recent weeks and months, both on the Senate level, where former Democratic Congressman Jim Slattery is hoping to become the first member of the party since 1932 to win a Senate election in the state, and on the presidential level, where it appears Barack Obama might have a shot at victory -- or at least the opportunity to put John McCain on his heels in yet another state. Now here's polling on the most competitive (at least theoretically) House race in the state:
Anzalone Liszt Research (D) for Cong. Nancy BoydaNancy Boyda vs. Jim Ryun
Nancy Boyda (D): 54 percent
Jim Ryun (R): 37 percent
Undecided: 9 percentNancy Boyda vs. Lynn Jenkins
Nancy Boyda (D): 57 percent
Lynn Jenkins (R): 27 percent
Undecided: 15 percent
According to this polling, which I slightly reformatted but did not otherwise alter for the purposes of this post, Boyda is trouncing both the former Representative for this district (Ryun) and the state Treasurer (Jenkins) in head-to-head polling. Do recall that according to the Cook Political Report this race is a "tossup", and this district leans about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. Then again, if the Democrats could overwhelmingly win in Mississippi's first congressional district, which tends to lean about 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole, perhaps it's time to re-think the way folks are rating these races.
Regardless, I think these numbers underscore an important point: Kansas isn't the overwhelmingly red state it once was. Is it still more red than blue? No doubt. But just as Mark Warner helped move Virginia from a red state to a purple one, so too has Kathleen Sebelius, the popular Democratic Governor of Kansas, helped move her state from being a deep red state to a reddish-purple. Don't believe the trend? In 2006, the Democrats received a remarkable 49.6 percent of the two-party congressional vote, which is about as close to even as you're going to get. The state isn't quite there yet, but I will say this: Boyda is looking strong, Slattery has a real fighting chance, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if Obama did what was only done four times during the 20th century: earn 45 percent or more of the vote in Kansas as the Democratic nominee, thus putting the state on the map in the presidential election.
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