Wheezing to the finish line he is...

he's limping to the finish line.......

...and there's already a diary on this.

...also it's ARG, which is nearly as accurate as making monkeys throw their poo at pictures of Obama and Clinton.

ARG has a rather poor showing this primary season. Coming in at an abysmal 23rd out of 33 known pollsters over the length of this primary season.

Not saying it's not going to be close, but this is just to way out there.

Considering that the Clinton campaign expects to lose in South Dakota (and lose big in Montana), somehow I don't think we should put much faith in ARG.

It might be interesting to note that Sen. Obama is stumbling / wheezing across the finish line in Montana and SOUTH Dakota. (North Dakota being mentioned in the title of the diary.)

Well done Jerome. Your big contribution of the day is bumping up ARG polls favorable to Clinton. Please tell us that you will come to your senses after tomorrow.

Can't we fix the title now that it is on the front page?

Also, how many people want to bet that ARG's South Dakota prediction is within, say, 20 points of being correct?

Part of why Clinton is doing well at this point is that people want to give her a tip of their hats at the end of the process.  

According to Marc Ambinder, the Clintons believe they will lose Montana in a blowout and lose South Dakota by about ten so that discredits this poll.

For what it's worth, Poblano suspects that they're a little screwy.

I think Obama will probably lose South Dakota.

I also think that Obama has reached the point of diminishing returns on these primaries now that he's pretty much acknowledged as the nominee. It's a gut feeling, but I'd imagine Clinton supporters are more likely to actually turn out to vote now, both to booster her popular vote total and to protest Obama.

As a point of reference, look at McCain getting only 75% in the recent primaries; his long-vanquished opponents' supporters are still turning out to voice disapproval with McCain months after the race ended. The only difference in our race is that Hillary is certainly no Huckabee or Ron Paul--she's a tremendous candidate who's still in the race, so greater motivation among her supporters certainly can affect the voting by at least a few points.

Not to take away from actual voters (for any candidate of any party), but the election-disparaging Limbaugh crowd are in absolute frenzies of joy over this entire primary.  I have not been listening to Right Wing Radio recently (I often do), but I can imagine Rush and his dittoheading clones will not be satisfied until they have done as much damage as possible.

The fat bastard was last I looked still crowing about how effective his little anti-democracy effort has been, and there is every indication that the numbers of his followers disrespecting Thomas Jefferson is measured in the thousands at least.  Not enough to literally change anything, but perhaps enough to add fuel to the Popular Vote fire.

May have to tune in and listen to the old windbag again and see how many of his callers gloat about pissing on the American political system this time...

-chris

You had a typo there... the correct spelling is AAAAAAARGGGH!!!  

Lets look at ARG in the area
Wisc   (HRC/Obama)
 American Research Group         2/15-16/08        600 LV        49        43

Iowa HRC/Edwards/Obama
ARG    12/31/07-1/2/08    600 LV    34    21    25

Dartboard.

America's chicken's are coming home... (pause) to ROOST!... Wow.

Wow. Can I say wow again? Wow.  

This is getting REALLY interesting now.  

I wonder if any Superdelegates ever thought that it would come down to one, maybe two percentage points difference in the end?  And that Hillary would be the one with closing momentum and by far the better numbers?

They've been getting SWAMPED for weeks by Obama's  propagandists distorting the actual margin separating the candidates.

Well, if the SD poll is correct, I'll take back all of the mean things I said about ARG.

I'm in South Dakota, making calls for Obama.  I would guess it will be close, though in my area, the support seems stronger for Obama.  The Clintons have been campaigning here every day, which is quite a big deal for South Dakotans since our votes have been taken for granted by republicans and democrats for some time. The Clinton supporters are louder, but I don't think there are more.

but 26 points up in South Dakota scares me. I mean if ARG misses by over 30 points I will be slightly stunned, but I will be equally stunned if ARG is close.

I can guess that Montana is a typical pro-Hillary result and that in the end Obama wins there comfortably (lets say between 7 and 17 points), but even if ARG is way off In South Dakota, Obama could lose by 10-15 points???

I would like to see some internals. Are only old ladies home and did ARG forget to weight the results?

This poll is astounding.

I would like to see Survey USA or Rasmussen with another poll before the voting begins, but I doubt that will happen.

I am not sure how to evaluate this, but while ARG has shown a pro-Hillary lean, I am not ready to dismiss 26 points as statistical noise from a bad polling firm. Its scary.

I hope Clinton finishes with some big wins. I've been proud to support her, and if the worst happens she'll have my full support in 2012.

I think she'll win both. Obama really is limping across the finish line

ARG tends to be off in Hillary's favor so we can assume that Obama is still likely to carry Montana and maybe by as much as 10%.

But unless they've totally lost it the SD poll suggests Hillary will win by double figures.

What does it mean?  Beyond the initial Clinton and media spin, nothing.

Limping to the finish line?  Well the reality is that he has again made a strategic choice to put more time into places he thinks are more important while the Clintons have spent mucho time in South Dakota. Should he have spent more time there and perhaps won?
Maybe. But his strategic decisions have paid off so far. He figures South Dakota results will be forgotten in a few weeks while Minnesota and Michigan will be critical in the general election.

The fact is that he has it sewed up.

Analogy. Football team that leads the league loses it's last game
but still finishes first and is the one that plays in the Super
Bowl. It would have been nice to finish on a big up note, but attention shifts immediately to the big games ahead.

MP

Agreed. I haven't been bothered that he isn't spending time here.  South Dakota just isn't going to go for him in the general.  I'd rather have him out fighting for the general.  Unfortunately, Senator Clinton might squeak out a win here, but if she does, I suspect it will be close.

I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. ARG is notorious for being one of the worst pollsters of this cycle.

Those polls are just wacky!  It would be a mixed blessing to win in South Dakota.  

Might make the Clinton campaign think that maybe, just maybe, they should have actually put forth a little effort in all of those irrelevant podunk consistently GOP-voting caucus states out West.

Are any other pollsters polling SD and MT this week or last week?

I think he did it because ARG's South Dakota poll was so far off conventional thinking.