Those of you reading MyDD in the last couple of days will likely have noticed an ad running for Congressman Robert Wexler. As I have moved to writing on a part-time basis on this site over the course of the summer, I'm not drawing any revenue from the current advertising on the site. But this ad nevertheless jumped out at me and got me thinking about the Florida Senate race in 2010.
Freshman Republican Senator Mel Martinez is just not popular. He was driven out as chairman of his party in about a year as head of the Republican National Committee, and down in Florida, in particular, his numbers aren't impressive. According to a recent automated poll of Florida voters, just 39 percent of the state views Martinez favorably, with 39 percent also viewing him unfavorably. Republican polling from Strategic Vision showed that Martinez' approval ratings aren't much better, with 43 percent of likely voters rating his job performance favorably and 42 percent rating it unfavorably.
Who could take advantage of Martinez' apparent weakness? One potential is Wexler, a congressman with a strong base of support who just happens to have more than $1.4 million in the bank at present. Wexler is a self-described "Fire-Breathing Liberal", and on the basis of his voting record he has an 88.19 progressive punch score. Wexler isn't perfect; his introduction of a plan to reform Social Security was a break from the Democrats' strategy of not budging an inch to President Bush on the issue (even though Wexler's plan didn't even come close to endorsing George W. Bush's privatization plan, it did signify a willingness to deal on the issue that could have led to pressure for the Democrats to eventually cave). That said, he isn't known to be someone himself willing to cave to the GOP, and he would likely be a strong progressive voice in the Senate if elected.
Within Florida's congressional delegation, only one other Democrat currently has the type of money in the bank to mount a serious Senate bid, Ron Klein, a freshman who defeated long-time GOP Congressman Clay Shaw in 2006 and who has more than $2.1 million in the bank. Other potential candidates could include the state's CEO, Alex Sink, as well as others serving in congress, the state legislature and elsewhere.
But regardless of whether it's one of the Democrats I named above, or someone else for that matter, one thing is clear out of this race: Martinez is weak and can be defeated in 2010.
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