Today brings news of two new polls out of the state of Alaska, both of which show John McCain's lead in the state, which only once in its history (Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide victory) has given its electoral votes to the Democratic presidential nominee, is well within the margin of error. First, here's Rasmussen Reports:
In one of the bigger surprises of Election 2008, early polling shows Barack Obama as potentially competitive in Alaska.The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Alaska voters finds John McCain earning 45% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 41%. Seven percent (7%) say they'd vote for some other candidate while another 6% are not sure (see video report). This is the third straight poll showing Obama within single digits of the presumptive GOP nominee. A month ago, McCain was up by nine. Two months ago, it was McCain by nine.
McCain is supported by 78% of Republican voters while Obama attracts 74% of Democratic voters. Among those not affiliated with either major party, it's Obama 48% McCain 33%. A month ago, Obama attracted 47% of unaffiliateds while McCain was supported by 41%.
McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of Alaska voters, Obama by 53%. Both figures are up a point over the past month.
Not only are these numbers within the Rasmussen poll's plus or minus 4 percentage point margin of error, according to Chris Cillizza, Democratic polling out of the state shows a very similar spread between McCain and Obama.
John McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 42 percent in Alaska, with Libertarian nominee Bob Barr taking 3 percent, according to the Global Strategy Group survey, which was conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and obtained by The Fix.
Alaska's three electoral votes aren't likely to be the ones that are going to swing this fall's election. That said, every additional traditionally Republican state that the McCain campaign is forced to defend this year is another headache that will siphon attention and money away from the other larger states McCain will need to carry in order to have any shot at winning the presidency (and judging by McCain's current performance in Ohio, Pennsylvania and even Florida, McCain's having some real trouble already in these states, too). And if McCain can be stretched ever so thin by being forced to defend a state like Alaska (and other states like Georgia and even Arizona) -- and it's looking more and more like this is a real possibility -- we could end up seeing a much wider electoral college spread than previously expected.
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