So he gives up on Arizona -- 10 EVs.

And Obama gives up (maybe) on Ohio and Florida? That's 44 EVs.

That's...a mistake. Even if the McCain line was just joking around, 44 EVs shouldn't really be taken so lightly by the Obama campaign.

I'm not drawing conclusions. I'm just wondering what the Obama camp is thinking. Not a unusual sensation.

LIke, WTF is up with hiring Patti Solis-Doyle? People have drastically different idea on what it "means" but everyone agrees it's a really baffling action no matter how you look at.

For all I know, it's a case of "If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bullshit."  

SIGH -- you'd think by now they'd know not to say questionable stuff at fund raisers! Someone ALWAYS has a tiny tape recorder these days.

If it meant the difference between him winning and losing -- would YOU be happy if he DIDN'T, and he lost?

Damn straight he should get down on his knees and beg, not just in those two states, but in any swing state where he wants votes.  He wants to be President, yes? He should do whatever it takes.  

Or is he too "elite" to beg for votes? Is that what you're saying? It's "beneath" him to earnestly tell people he wants them to vote for him?

You want the guy in the White House or not?  I get the feeling you don't want him there if it means he has to "beg", because that would be terrible.  I mean, he's the Anointed One, so all he needs to do is just stand there and glow and everyone's going to automatically vote for him, right?  He doesn't have to ask at all?

Damn, you people who keep going "Obama shouldn't have to do {blank} to win!" are stupid.  As long as it isn't illegal, immoral, or fattening, Obama should be willing to do it if he's serious about becoming President. You can't change very much of anything if you don't get into the White House first.

"Obama shouldn't have to beg!"
"Obama shouldn't have to put Hillary Clinton on his ticket!"
"Obama shouldn't have to answer for crap Jeremiah Wright said!"
"Obama shouldn't have to put up with those evil PUMAs! They should be taken out back and SHOT for daring to be pissed at him!"

Wake the hell up. Obama's a politician. He should, and will, have to do all these things if he's serious about winning.

Michigan is a particularly complex political landscape this election, for several reasons.

First, there's a lot of serious discontent with the way Michigan was treated by the DNC and by most of the Democratic candidates. By pulling their names off the ballot, they basically said, "We don't want any of your illegal, tainted votes. We listen to the DNC, not to you people."  Hillary showed Michigan respect by simply keeping her name on the ballot. She showed that she wanted to hear from Michigan when other candidates, including Obama, cared more about pleasing the DNC and Iowa (remember, there was NO RULE saying he had to take his name off the ballot. None.)  

You can tell Michiganders "Hey, go blame your own local political party for moving the primary," but that's not going to wash very well -- most voters could give a rat's ass about the DNC. All they know is that some kind of strange political maneuvering by the Democratic party completed messed up their primary voting. And they don't like it.

So start with that, then throw in the fact that his camp blocked an excellent plan for a do-over Primary at the end of May, then add to THAT the ridiculousness of the DNC giving Obama all this Michigan representation, when not one single vote was cast for him.  Yes, I know some of the "Uncommitted Voters" were for him, but no one knows how many -- again, he could have left his name on the ballot and chose not to, so he's not entitled to claim any of those votes because it was his own decision.

Next, consider Michigan's religious landscape.  It's quite conservative -- mostly Dutch/German Lutheran and Irish Catholic.   Trinity United looks like an utterly terrifying "church" to the quiet churchgoers of the state -- it looked more like some wild bacchanalia than the reserved and staid services they thought of as "church". (And yes, the services are way duller than the ones given at Trinity United -- but Michigan folks don't mind a quiet, peaceful service with some gentle music. I think a lot of them like to nap there, myself. Imagine trying to catch a nice nap with Wright on the pulpit!)  So that makes religious MIchiganders very nervous, as they're far out of their religious comfort zone.

Next, consider a relatively  new but increasingly important faces of the political landscape:  DEARBORN.  Dearborn, Michigan, just outside of Detroit, is the "Muslim capital of America." The community is actually a fine place, but it's been the source of a lot of worry for Michiganders.  The rules for getting government documentation (like a new driver's license) have become insanely stringent; when I asked why exactly they needed this HUGE list of documents and statements and so on, the DMV workers told me it was due to concerns about Muslim terrorists coming over the border from Canada to live in Dearborn -- Michigan doesn't want to give them easy access to personal documentation.

You might think, "Hey, Muslim would love to vote for Obama!" And they probably would. (I don't actually know of anyone who's tracking the vote of the American Muslim...anyone have a link?) But there aren't enough of them to make a dent in his election numbers. There's just enough of them to make your average  Michigan redneck very worried (yes, I'm using the term redneck. We have quite a few in Michigan.)  In the early days of the Democratic primary, I often heard people exclaiming over "Obama the Muslim" and his "Madrassa schooling."  The "Obama is secretly a Muslim!" meme has sunk pretty deep, and although it's A) not true and B) not a bad thing even if it WERE true, for a lot of folks around here Muslim = Evil Terrorist.  

And with Dearborn right there...all those Muslims...Michigan is quite nervous about Obama on that front. (Not so much in Detroit, which has its own share of Muslims, or in Ann Arbor, which is a big university town and therefore quite a bit more liberal than average for Michigan; but I can't think of any other city where a Muslim wouldn't be greeted with suspicion at least, and possibly worse.

So yeah, Michigan tends to go Democratic, but things Obama has to deal with that other Democratic Presidential candidates haven't include:

1) The amazing mess the DNC and the Michigan Democratic Party made of Michigan's primary votes;

2) Shock and deep discomfort over Trinity United

3) Dearborn, and the persistent rumors of Obama's Muslim "connections."

So there are four situations here:

1) Obama decides to stop "coddling" the swing state voters.  For whatever reason, it doesn't matter and he wins. That's good.

2) Obama decides to stop "coddling" the swing state voters. They don't like it; he loses EV votes to McCain, and loses the election. That's bad.

3) Obama decides to "coddle" the swing state voters. They like it; he picks up their EV votes and crushes McCain. That's good.

4) Obama decides to "coddle" the swing state voters. They like it, but not enough to swing the vote. He loses to McCain. That's bad.

In situation 1, you assume that Obama will be fine without those voters no matter what happens. If you have that much confidence, enjoy your little bubble of delusion for as long as it lasts.

In situation 2, Obama takes a situation he could have won and throws it away by being too cocky. He goes down, and rightfully so.

In situation 3, Obama decides it's better to take all possible precautions in a close race. He plays to the swingstaters and it pays off with the White House.

In situation 4, Obama does his best but loses anyway, in which case nothing he did was going to help at all. (This would probably only happen if there's another major screwup or damaging revelation from the Obama camp between now and November.)

"He doesn't need any certain state. He needs all the states that voted for Kerry." That's a LOT of certain states he needs. Some of them are definitely not trending his way at the moment.

So yeah, Obama should definitely butter up the swing staters. Why take chances?  This is the Presidency here -- it's WORTH coddling some voters for.  Why would you object to that? The voters in the swing states ARE the crucial voters. I mean, try being Blue in a committed Red state, or vice versa -- your vote is completely worthless because you're not going to be able to change your state's leaning.

I lived in a committed blue state for a long time (Massachusetts) and while that wasn't usually a problem since I'm a liberal, it was always a bit depressing to realize that my vote didn't matter either way -- Mass was going Dem.  In 2000 and 2004 I wished I could briefly get residency in a swing state so my vote would actually count in favor of Gore and Kelly, but of course that's not so easy to do. Each state only has so many EV votes to give, so it doesn't matter if the candidate wins 51% of the vote or 99% -- it's the same result.

Furthermore -- you do realize that being treated like the election deciders (which they are) is hardly all fun and games for the swing state voters?  You know how many political ads and robocalls and flyers and survey-takers and pollsters and other crap they have to put up with?  I think they deserve some personal attention from the candidates to make up for all that abominable noise.

He needs somebody with a military record to offset McCain.  Webb has taken on Bush head-on in war issues, and stepped up in a way that no other Senator has done.

I'm not saying his sexism should be ignored.  He should speak to it directly.

As for a loose cannon, well Clinton herself says things which lead her to be misunderstood (think under fire in the airport, RFK's assassination, etc.).  Anybody with character to speak his/her mind is going to be a risk, because things don't always come out of your mouth the way you plan.

Well I could return you the point. When Clinton's map was up there you didn't seem to care about the sources.

I have no idea how the map was generated but it gives you an idea of the states Obama consider in play if only because at least one poll show him winning the states in blue.

I never had a problem with the mydd maps.  They provide a snapshot of the race based on the most recent polls.

There are, however, much better maps out there.  Give me a minute to scrounge some up.

Okay.  Let's do this.

Assume the worst: Obama loses all the plums. Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Virginia.

Are there enough prunes out there for him to still win?