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I know the Obama followers love these polls that Obama crushing everyone in his path, but I don't take them seriously this early in the General Election.

Kerry was looking pretty good against Bush at this time of the election in 2004.

This will change.  A lot.

Yeah, there's no need for a bounce for us.  We are already big time for Obama.  Turnout at our caucus was absolutely nuts.

As for Franken.  I'm actually not all that worried about Ventura.  Ventura is far more anti-establishment than he is anti-Franken.  Ventura will go for Coleman's fiscal conservative base; by the time Ventura's done eating Coleman alive, Franken will probably win.

Look, I don't mean to rain on this parade, but all this snobbery toward John Kerry is revisionist.  Republicans maxed out their vote in 2004.  Kerry's campaign also found just about every person who was willing to vote Democratic- 6 million more than Al Gore.

The country has trended liberal/Democratic at a pretty constant rate of about 1% per year for about 15-20 years at least.  Basically on the change of generations, i.e. the net dying away of people who reached adulthood before the 1980s and increase in voters younger than that.  On sheer demographics, 8-10% of the voters participating in a Presidential election will not live to see or be in condition to participate in the next one.

In short, the electorate changes.  The fair standard to hold the Democratic nominee's performance this year is the Kerry percentage plus four.  

I'm from Minnesota and I've never really bought into the argument that it's a swing state in presidential elections. That seems to have come about recently, since Nader grabbed a lot of the vote in 2000, allowing Bush to come closer than he otherwise would have. Statewide races tend to be esoteric, to say the least, but in presidential elections, Minnesota has the longest blue streak of any of the 50 states. The last time it went for a Republican was 1972.

I live here in Oregon, and these numbers are encouraging. Smith can't seem to get over 50%, and that bodes poorly for him. He's  been running ads nonstop since the primary, and yet he's this low and has terribly high disapprovals (47%)? Ouch.

Jeff Merkley is in the process of re-introducing himself to our state. As a starter, he's going to conduct a 100-town tour throughout Oregon. He's going to bring his fight to everyone across the state, letting them know he'll be the one who can stand up for what's right on Iraq, marriage equality, the environment, and so many other issues.

Go Jeff!

As I said in an earlier thread, one of the key races to improving the Democrats (and progressives) position in the United States Senate is the race here in Oregon. We had a wealth of riches in the primary with both Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley as being rock-solid progressives. Oregon Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley won the primary battle, and is exactly the sort of progressive we need in the Senate.

Here in the Oregon legislature last session, with a razor thin one seat majority, Jeff Merkley was able to get things done and lead the most productive session in decades, passing anti-predatory lending laws, giving equal rights under Oregon law to gay couples  as straight married couples, creating a rainy-day fund to stabilize school funding, strengthening conservation laws and regulations to protect the environment, the list goes on and on.

Jeff Merkley can take out Bush rubber-stamper Gordon Smith, who is polling under 50%. Speaker Merkley just launched a 100 town tour of the state to invest the sweat equity in smaller rural communities, but one of the biggest hurdles will be visibility through television ads and the need for netroots support.

The thing that will make this a viable key pick-up opportunity of a GOP held Senate seat will money because we have the right kind of Democratic nominee, we just need to get him elected. Bush rubber-stamper Gordon Smith has a sizable war-chest (some $10 million) and Jeff Merkley needs the help of the grassroots/netroots to be competitive.

So everyone here who gripes about not having a solid majority in the Senate, or that we don't have progressive or strong enough Democrats in the Senate, it is time to put your money where your mouth is. So if you want to replace Bush/McCain lackey Gordon Smith with a true progressive Democrat then donate now. For the cost of a night out at the movies on a weekly basis, we together can get Jeff Merkley the resources to win this seat. We have a great candidate, a weak and very vulnerable GOP incumbent to run against, and a 'change election' environment, but it is up to us to make change happen because it won't happen without us doing our part, and will happen if we donate.

That is why you, me, and everyone here needs to step up to the plate and help elect Jeff Merkley win his race here in Oregon. Unseating Gordon Smith, who votes with Bush/McCain 90%+ of the time is reason enough, but beyond that, Jeff Merkley is a rock-solid progressive and is a Democrat in ACTION not just in name. His leadership here in Oregon with FuturePac flipped our state leg. and got it back in Democratic control, and then lead the one of the most productive and progressive sessions in decades, all with a razor thin majority.

Jeff Merkley is exactly the strong Democrat (and progressive) we need in the U.S. Senate. That is why you, me, and everyone here needs to help out and support Jeff Merkley.