MyDD :: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll

And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 08:03:16 AM EST

According to some of the talking heads, Barack Obama is supposed to be particularly weak among Hispanic voters. Last week, though, Gallup released a compendium of polling showing that, contrary to this common wisdom, Obama held a significant 62 percent to 29 percent lead among this demographic over John McCain. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll also released numbers on Hispanic voters, and although the oversample of Hispanic voters still only amounted to 150 respondents (yielding somewhere in the neighborhood of an 8-point, plus or minus, margin of error), the numbers looked a bit familiar:

Hispanic Voters

John McCain (R): 28 percent
Barack Obama (D): 62 percent

There are now two polls showing Obama performing in the low 60s among Hispanic voters and McCain performing in the high 20s in this group in head-to-head polling. In case you weren't sure if your hunch was correct, no these numbers aren't good for McCain.

Exit polling, whatever weight you give it, from 2004 showed that John Kerry won the Latino vote by a scant 53 percent to 44 percent margin (Pew (.pdf) estimates George W. Bush's share of the vote to be closer to 40 percent). So according to these numbers, either the ones more favorable to Bush or those not, McCain is running much worse among this voting bloc than did Bush just four years ago. In fact, McCain's numbers among Hispanics look consistently similar to those of his party in 2006, when they lost the Hispanic vote 69 percent to 30 percent. So the question in my mind, much like it was in my last post, is which candidate is it that is experiencing difficulty courting the Hispanic vote?

Tags: Poll, 2008, Hispanic Voters (all tags)

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Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

There's no need to worry about the hispanic vote. That was always going to come home to the democrats because basically they know the dems are going to reform immigration. The bill isn't going to look a million miles away from the one that Bush/McCain to their credit tried to get through.

by ottovbvs on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 08:11:09 AM EST

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

We do need to worry about it. Obama campaign has not reached out to Latino's at all. It's amazing. But there is no statements, no mentions, no programme for reaching out to Latino's at all.

These figures would be there for any candidate. The one thing Obama has going for him is that there is a 'D' next to him.

by Makey on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:01:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (2.00 / 2)

You forget there was just highly contested primary that wended its way through the entire country. Latino outreach was a heavy element in both the Clinton and Obama campaigns.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:05:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

hispanic vote and immigration (none / 0)

somewhat more complicated. Hispanic legal immigrants aren't always in favor of lax immigration laws. They don't necessary like border jumpers any more than their Republican friends.

by ab03 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:46:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

Oh this is huge. That's what - 10 percent undecided? Plus, democrats usually carry the latino vote, but not like this.

I never got how McCain was supposed to be so beloved among hispanics.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 08:21:14 AM EST

My local NPR station was pushing these false memes (2.00 / 1)

I had to call in yesterday to my local NPR affiliate, whose morning show was devoted to whether Obama "has a problem with Jewish and Hispanic [sic] voters."

I pointed out to them on-air that:

(A) Jewish voters represent 1.3% of the population; so even if McCain grabbed 60% of this demographic (which he won't), he'd only gain a 0.26% edge in the popular vote;

(B) Obama is absolutely clobbering McCain among Latino voters, as the most recent poll further demonstrates.

I then told them that many of us are tired of this endless harping on demography -- race, class, religion -- at the expense of issues... And that I expect Americans to cast votes in November on the economy, the war, the erosion of our Constitutional protections, et al.

Reaction: OK, well, those are good points... But we've decided on our narratives, please don't confuse us with facts.

by Hudson on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 10:44:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Note re. Florida (none / 0)

The one state where some argue that "the Jewish vote" might matter -- I say this as someone whose mother is Jewish -- is Florida.

The figure I've seen is that Jews might comprise about 5% of the Florida electorate.

So again: If McCain were to get a massive 60% of this demographic in Florida, he'd gain a 1% edge in the Florida popular vote from that.

I doubt that McCain will do that well among Jews in Florida; and in any case, I'm confident that Obama can more than offset such an advantage if need be by turning out young voters, new registrants, independents, et al.

by Hudson on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 10:49:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

These days, NPR = (none / 0)

Nice Polite Republicans

Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.

by Freespeechzone on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 01:21:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

There's reason to worry about every constituency, but not needlessly so and not based on the results of exit polls from Democratic primaries. We ought to be careful (excuse the Ari Fleischer tone) when repeating Republican Talking Points. Here's a few ways to spot an RTP:

Karl Rove has said it previously.
Karl Rove will say it after you've said it.
Karl Rove wishes he had said it.
It diminishes Democrats.
It would dampen turnout.
It suggests that John McCain is anything other than a continuation of the disastrous tenure of America's worst president, George W. Bush.

There are millions more, but this is a pretty good start.

by niksder on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 08:28:30 AM EST

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

You're right - the endless "yes, but what do the white people think?" coverage was incredibly depressing at first.

Now I can't break out of that mindset.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 08:33:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

I heard the "Hispanics won't vote for him" as recently as yesterday. Sometimes I think folks are telling us where they wish things were instead of where things are. Dan Abrams the other night used a three-day old poll to portray the race as tied when Obama had opened a 6-point lead. I'm assuming his folks know how to use the Google.

by niksder on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:01:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

What scares me is that the Obama campaign may believe some of it - I think his loss in the Texas primary could have been avoided if his campaign hadn't just assumed that Hillary Clinton owns the Latino vote and that's that.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:07:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He never conceded the latino vote in Texas (none / 0)

He ran spanish language ads featuring a mariachi band, fer chrissakes.

He used "Si, se puede!" on the campaign trail.

Clinton had an enormous name recognition advantage over him, but in the end, he's better in every issue for them than McCain.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:47:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He never conceded the latino vote in Texas (none / 0)

My answer is specific to Texas and would take too long to explain. Too long for what I'm in the mood for at any rate.

No, he didn't concede it, but that wasn't my point.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:57:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

Barring an October Surprise, I smell "Blue Tsunami".

by moondancer on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 08:32:27 AM EST

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

We are Obama supporters. We take nothing for granted. We campaign like we are ten points down at all times.

Don't get comfortable.

John McCain Hates Poor People

by pneuma on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 10:11:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

I've been working for his campaign since Feb. While nothing is certain, I do notice weather changes as I break rocks for Obama.LOL

by moondancer on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 10:54:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obamanos :) (2.00 / 1)

Latinos/Hispanics aren't just concerned with immigration. The second largest block of Latino voters is Puerto Rican - and as American citizens don't have deportation issues - however ALL Latinos are concerned with the economy and issues like education and health care.

The xenophobic rhetoric of the Repubs, and idiots like Lou Dobbs on CNN isn't going to help McSame.

Yes, there were Mexican-Americans in Texas who voted for Shrub - but that is shifting. The much touted "Hispanics won't vote for a Black man" theme touted by pundits is flawed. Yes - many Puerto Ricans in NY voted for Senator Clinton - she is their Senator, but that never meant that they would switch to McSame.

I took a look at McSame's website yesterday. His "Spanish" pages are a joke - most have links to articles written in English. He has an audio tape running of a Cuban political prisoner - who apparently called in his rant from a cell phone on the Island - so McSame is going after the anti-Castro group in FL - which has no meaning to other Latinos, and is losing steam in FL, where 2nd and 3rd generation Cuban-Americans are shifting towards the Dems, and are arguing for loosening of the travel restrictions to the island.

Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

by NeciVelez on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 08:35:18 AM EST

Re: Obamanos :) (2.00 / 1)

The much touted "Hispanics won't vote for a Black man" theme touted by pundits is flawed.

I believe everyone familiar with New York City politics laughed when they heard that.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:33:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I support Obama (none / 0)

and even I find this shocking. This would probably explain McCain's weakness in his own home state and Obama's strength in Colorado. I haven't seen any recent New Mexico polls, but with numbers like this, it would not shock me to see Obama up big there. Nevada too.

The Hispanic vote is key to the Southwest and helps immensly in Florida.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 08:39:43 AM EST

Texas is in play now. (none / 0)

I've been seeing the signs now for some time. If Obama carries the Hispanic vote with even half the advantage shown in this poll he wins Texas!

"You measure democracy by the freedom it gives its dissidents, not the freedom it gives its assimilated conformists." -Abbie Hoffman

by HippySuperstar on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 08:57:09 AM EST

Re: Texas is in play now. (none / 0)

Texas is POTENTIALLY in play, but you're really shoveling against the tide if you're a democrat trying to pick it up. Thanks to Tom Delay, the Democratic Party of Texas has been absolutely decimated - a fact which worked to Obama's advantage in the primary, because it turned the race into "volunteers versus volunteers" instead of one campaign having exclusive access to the state party infrastructure like what happened in Pennsylvania.

But in a general election, that spells defeat. Every man-hour of work towards electing Obama in Texas is going to come directly out of the campaign itself; McCain, on the other hand, is going to just be able to plug into the local party which has a hammerlock on state politics. There are 5 major media markets in Texas and huge areas with diverse economies and populations in between them. It's almost its own country.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:31:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas is in play now. (none / 0)

If Obama wins Texas, he won't need it. Other Hispanic-heavy states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Florida will all go in his column before Texas does. And if we're looking at a shift big enough to move Texas, it's likely that Missouri, Virginia, maybe even North Carolina, and one or two flyover states like Montana would have already gone to Obama. If he moves the electorate that far, we're already looking at a 360+ EV landslide.

It's sorta like the quadrennial motions Republicans make at going after New Jersey and California. Sure, maybe they could pick them off, but if they did, it would mean that the electorate would have moved far enough that all the Midwestern and rust-belt states would have already fallen.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

by fwiffo3 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:52:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas is in play now. (none / 0)

It's the second-largest state in the US, and it has the backbone of what could be a Democratic state. But nothing done this year is going to bear fruit for a while.

Anyway, my point was less about whether or not it was winnable and more about how freaking expensive it is for Democrats to run there. The Republicans just have to work their state party to get what Democrats could only get by spending tens of millions.

It's what we do offseason that matters.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 10:02:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas is in play now. (none / 0)

Yeah, I agree with that. My post wasn't really directly in response to you - mostly I was just throwing out my thoughts on Texas generally.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

by fwiffo3 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 10:27:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

We are taking all their votes for granted. Obama hasn't reached out to Latino's in any way. It's madness. There is no logic to it.

by Makey on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:03:47 AM EST

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (2.00 / 1)

I don't know why you keep saying that. It isn't true - just by observations in my own neighborhood in Brooklyn (Nydia Velazquez' district), which is primarily Dominican and Puerto Rican I'm aware of Latino outreach. There's a buzz everywhere.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:11:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

You tell me the last time he mentioned Latino's. When?

The trick with minorities (Blk, Latino, Jewish , etc) to get them to your side is to include them and reference o them. If you need to pander to them so be it. They wll love you for it. And for your effort they reward you, loyally.

Look at the effort McCain is reaching out to Jewish. He has a senior Jewish congressman (Lieberman) at his side constantly.

Obama has 1 event a day. The old man McCain usually 3. You telling me there is no time for Latino out reach?

There is a hubris with Obama fans. Nothing is certain when the candidate i the first black man and with the middle name 'Hussein'.

by Makey on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:17:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

Well in his speeches constantly. "black and white, latino and asian..." but that's not the point.

First off, I think a lot of what he said during the Austin debate was appealing - a plea to tone down the rhetoric, a repudiation of the old saw that black and latino workers are competing over the same jobs, etc.

Plus, McCain panders because he has to. With Democratic candidates, it's based much more on organizing - his campaign taps into latino organizations that already exist. SEIU, which has a political arm that could knock over a small mountain is the largest and most predominantly latino union in the US, and they're pulling out all the stops for him, specifically reaching out to latino communities. He's also got the CWA - that's an endorsement that you don't get unless you're working with leaders in the latino community.

Look I'm not an expert and there's a ton of work to do, but I don't agree with your model of how to do minority outreach, and the idea that he's neglecting it just isn't correct.

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:26:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Latino outreach (none / 0)

Puerto Rico

To Cuban Americans in Miami

Viva Obama (in Texas)

Immigration

Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

by NeciVelez on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 07:23:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

And it is madness - Colorado, which is a "Key State™" for the Obama campaign and a state that he's currently leading absolutely depends on the hispanic vote. Do you think they're relying on white voters to pick it up?

I have that readiness.

by Jess81 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:12:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

With the caveat that it is only June, that is huge. Especially when you consider, as noted previously, he is actually doing 5 points better with white men (who Dems always lose) than either Gore or Kerry and is winning white women that carried Bush to victory in 2004. He will also do better with black voters than the poll suggests. African-Americans will also be a larger share of the total electorate. Still, there are areas to work on but its a good place to start.

by conspiracy on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:29:43 AM EST

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

I also like these numbers:

ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO CHOOSE JOHN McCAIN IN Q.13a.)
13c. Would you say your vote is more FOR John McCain, more AGAINST Barack Obama, or more AGAINST the
Democratic Party? +
More for John McCain ........................................ ..................... 38 [180]
More against Barack Obama ........................................ .......... 36
More against the Democratic Party ........................................ 24
Not sure ........................................ ........................................ .. 2
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
(ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO CHOOSE BARACK OBAMA IN Q.13a.)
13d. Would you say your vote is more FOR Barack Obama, more AGAINST John McCain, or more AGAINST
George Bush and the Republican Party? +
More for Barack Obama ........................................ ........................... 50 [208]
More against John McCain ........................................ ...................... 7
More against George Bush and the Republican Party ................... 41
Not sure ........................................ ........................................ ........... 2

It's always better to be the candidate people are voting for rather than against. See Bush, 2004.

Having said that, it does show what an anchor Bush and McCain being a Republican is going to be to him.

by conspiracy on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:33:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That's awesome. (none / 0)

Those numbers should be on the front page.

"No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown

by auboy2006 on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:39:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's awesome. (none / 0)

Yup. All about the energy. We are gonna win this!

by conspiracy on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 09:42:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

On the day after the dem primaries ended, two of my hispanic friends who live and work in New York -- one a latino from L.A., the other a Puerto Rican woman from the Bronx -- both ardent Hillary supporters, called me to tell me how devastated they were at Hillary's loss. Both told me quite independently of each other (they don't actually know each other) that they were unable to watch any of the speeches that night, neither Hillary's, Obama's, nor McCain's because they were too upset.

Several days later, I spoke with both of them again and they had finally watched the speeches. As my friend from L.A. said, "I"m with Obama now!" It took them days to get over Hillary, but now they are both on board with Obama. I think they are quite representative of the larger group of hispanics who will come around and support Obama in November.

The same cannot be said for men like my next-door neighbor, who upon seeing me wearing an Obama-for-President baseball cap yesterday, said to me "I can't vote for him because of his color." I'm a 50-something white post-grad male. My reply to him was, "I don't have that problem. But glad you like paying $4.00 a gallon for gas, because McBush is going to keep making you happy with that if he gets in..." The day before he had complained to me that it was costing him $70 to fill up his truck just to go to work. He is blue-collar (machinist, no higher ed), so he fits that demographic.

I think yesterday's poll reflects what I'm seeing in my neck of the woods (Northern New Jersey) pretty accurately. Obama is doing well here if you judge by bumper stickers and yard signs. I've seen NO signs for McSame as Bush yet, but quite a few for Obama.

by owlskinner on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 10:29:20 AM EST

I don't believe it (none / 0)

First of all, I don't believe that Kerry only beat Bush among hispanics by 53-44. Those numbers have been debunked.

Secondly, while Obama will win the hispanic vote, I doubt he's up by over 30 right now. Plus, McCain has pretty good "street cred" with hispanics. He's probably the one Republican who could make an inroad.

by jpetty on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 10:55:43 AM EST

Re: I don't believe it (none / 0)

Since the last election the Republicans have been working hard at transforming themselves from the we hate Black people party to the we hate Hispanics party. McCain has already abandoned his own policy on immigration. He has no cred, street or otherwise, so the poll numbers are no surprise.

I was absolutely shocked to see the warm reception Obama got from the Cuban American National Foundation here in Miami. The Republicans have really damaged themselves with the Hispanic community.

by hankg on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 11:12:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

According to first read (none / 0)

Bush NEVER trailed Kerry in NBC/WSJ polls

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/06/12/1135634.aspx

by verbatim on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 12:00:46 PM EST

Re: And One More Key Point from the NBC/WSJ Poll (none / 0)

We are taking all their votes for granted,Obama hasn't reached out to Latino's in any way. It's madness. There is no logic to it.

Flashlights rc heli videogame

by blueskyadf on Sat Jun 21, 2008 at 05:20:45 AM EST

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