Massive voter registration drive.
Giant grassroots opertion.
Paid staffers already in the ground.

There are dozens of staffers here this week for training too.

Didn't Jerome tell us that there was no way Obama would actually be competitive in NC?  :)

Just messing around, since my predictions are usually worse than anyone's.  Moreover, it's obviously still very early and lots can change.  But this kind of polling is certainly encouraging.  

It will be very interesting to see what a true 50-state campaign does both in terms of the electoral college and the popular vote.  Obviously only the former ultimately "matters," but if Obama can narrow McCain's margins across the board, it will sure make it a lot easier to claim the type of broad mandate we need to enact real change.

is great for just this reason.  Every time a red state has an anomalous poll, the fact that Obama will have an organization in the state will make the Republicans go and have to spend money in a state, even if the poll is a total outlier.

Frankly, I think six Supreme Court justices are worth the expense.

This poll shows McCain leading both men and women by 45 to 43, no gender gap at all.

I find this unlikely in the extreme; Obama must be leading among women.

So I think it underestimates his strength.

NC has both a gubernatorial and Senate race this year.  If Obama does well in the Tarheel state, maybe Kay Hagan can unseat Liddy Dole.

Keep in mind that McCain has a very poorly organized campaign apparatus compared to Obama:

The style and approach of general election campaigns are often conditioned by the method of victory in the primaries. The Obama team ends the season like a battle-worn Army division -- organized, relentless and skilled at fundraising, registering voters and getting them to the polls. Members of the McCain team feel more like survivors of a near-death experience -- convinced that the virtues of their candidate and the blessings of the political gods matter more than the money, phone banks and door-knocking of traditional politics.

This worries some Republican strategists. One recently described the McCain campaign to me as the political equivalent of a Mickey Rooney and Judy Garland movie: Every morning a few guys get together and say, "Let's put on a show!" McCain's state campaign organizations, coalition outreach and get-out-the-vote efforts are weak or nonexistent. But McCain campaign officials are convinced that they will win -- if they win -- in a different manner from that of the methodical Bush campaigns of 2000 and 2004. McCain will either catch fire, or he won't -- and traditional efforts to boost turnout, in this view, are not likely to make the difference. Given its history, the McCain campaign is understandably proud of its stripped-down, seat-of-the-pants, insurgent style. But it may eventually be useful to have a serious campaign organization in, say, Colorado.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/06/10/AR2008061002526. html

The difference in organization will account for at least a few percentage points advantage for Obama over the polls.

A haiku:

When red states begin to slip,
Republicans wail.
Obama wins election.

I'm still dubious about NC.  If Obama pulls within 7 points, it's a moral victory.

All the current polling and all the giddy expectations are in a period of McCain and the Republicans not firing back or doing so in a desultory manner.   One can not presume that this pattern will hold.

how people laugh when Obama launches a plan or an idea and people say it will never work only to find out it really does.

Now it's too early to celebrate or even assume NC will go Dem but seriously people should stop underestimating Obama (well maybe they shouldn't as then he loses a big advantage).

And think that these numbers don't even begin to reflect how much Obama can grow nor his efforts at GOTV and registration.

North Carolina, wake up!

Unfortunately, McCain (with the help of the useless media) has convinced a lot of people that he will be nothing like Bush.  Of course, this is even after he talks and praises a lot of Bush policies.

I don't get it, but it is still the reason why he has a chance with 50% saying Bush is Terrible.

It's trending blue, for sure. But it has a large military presence and McCain has a lot of appeal there. Same with retirees in NC. Then there's the heavily racist Piedmont area that backed Jesse Helms and will never vote for Obama. But Obama has a sizable black population to work with, the increasing Raliegh-Durham, Triad and Charlotte areas, and a Democratic governor that has come around to Obama's side.

Obama's organization muscle will make NC competitive. But it will be very tough to win in a state Bill Clinton couldn't even get in 1996.