West Virginia primary a few days away

West Virginia didn't get the memo that this was over. ARG finds Clinton leading Obama by a 66-23 margin.

West Virginia was a big moment in the 1960 primary. It sealed the nomination for Kennedy:

By early spring, the issue of Kennedy's religion had entered the electoral discussion, splitting the Wisconsin vote along religious lines and resulting in a steady erosion of support in West Virginia. Four weeks before West Virginia primary day, the tide had turned against JFK and he found himself trailing Humphrey by 20 points. When the campaign asked the county chairs why the voters had switched allegiance, they replied, "No one know you were a Catholic" when the poll was taken. Kennedy responded by moving his key campaign aides to West Virginia, calling on close friends to volunteer their time, and training county campaign chairs in 39 of the state's 59 counties to staff phone banks, host receptions, and go door to door to distribute literature. He changed his schedule to campaign throughout the state and brought Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jr. there to endorse his candidacy. On April 25th he decided to attack the anti-Catholic bias head-on, telling audiences across the state, "I refuse to believe that I was denied the right to be President the day that I was baptized." Finally, on May 8th, two days before the election, in a broadcast paid for by the campaign, FDR, Jr. asked JFK how his Catholicism would effect his presidency. Kennedy replied that taking the oath of office required swearing on the Bible that the president would defend separation of church and state and that any candidate that violated this oath not only violated the Constitution but "sinned against God."

In framing the issue as one of tolerance versus intolerance, Kennedy appealed to West Virginia's long-held revulsion for prejudice; placed Humphrey, who had championed tolerance his entire career, on the defensive; and attacked him with a vengeance. Humphrey, who was short on funds, could not match the well-financed Kennedy operation. Kennedy defeated his rival soundly, winning 60.8 percent of the vote. That evening, Humphrey announced that he was no longer a candidate for the presidency. Kennedy knew the nomination was his if he could hold his delegates together once they reached the convention.

The AP has a wrap on the campaign thus far; since its an open primary, Obama should do much better than the ARG polling.



Display:


Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 5)

This ain't 1960.  It won't be a critical primary this year.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:05:22 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

What do you mean?  She'll probably net 8 delegates there.  That will almost make up for the last two day's worth of SD movement.  It'll be huge!


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:12:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

I think it'll be a 10 delegate pickup. Obama would need ~36% of the vote to make it 8, which he probably won't get.


by Angry White Democrat on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:33:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Well we'll see.  Ultimately though the two delegates aren't going to matter that much as the SDs are committing pretty aggressively.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:44:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

HAHAHAHAhahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaahh hhhhhh......

HAHAHHAHAHAHAhAhahahahahahahahahahahahah ahaaaaahhhhhhhhhh......


by IowaMike on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:36:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

But will it make up for the total delegate gains Obama has had since the last primaries on Tuesday?

I don't think so.

You have to look at where the candidates are from one primary to the next.  If a candidate doesn't gain overall ground on the TOTAL delegate pickup (pledged and super) since  the last primary(s), they really haven't gained ground.

Bottom line, Hillary will still be worse off by the numbers on May 14th than she was on May 5th.


by Obamaphile on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:26:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Not to mention that WV was, what, Kennedy's 3rd primary of that election? It's not like there's a comparison here: it's apples to tater tots.
by Jay R on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:31:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

and the money... the article jerome quoted makes a joke of it, "and go door to door to distribute literature."   The author really meant to say "and go church to church with suitcases full of cash donations."

Ya, this is not 1960 anymore


by soros on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:38:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Stale week-old tater tots, at that.


by Mullibok on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:39:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually (none / 0)

It is like NC's, and independents have to request a democratic ballot.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:05:43 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

To overtake Obamas She needs to win 75-25, every remaining state.


by parahammer on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:07:46 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 1)

Hillary will win big then the media will have egg on its face for trying to tell Hillary to drop out. She is a true fighter! With Hillary she also brings fair coverage on fox news for once.


by Hillarywillwin on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:10:21 PM EST

fox news wants her to win. (none / 0)

that way they can roll her in shit for four years. (reference to Iran)


His head is bowed. He thinks of men and kings. Yea, when the sick world cries, how can he sleep?
by RisingTide on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:12:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: fox news wants her to win. (none / 0)

but she brings more to the table because she has fox on her side. Obama can't do that. Fox will be for dems for once.


by Hillarywillwin on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:19:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: fox news wants her to win. (2.00 / 1)

Have you lost your freaking mind?!?!?!?!

I mean, HAVE YOU LOST YOUR FREAKING MIND??!!?!

Wow.

They're playing you.  Please understand that.  Fox is playing you Hillary folks.  They don't want her to win, they want the Democrats to bleed.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:22:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This person is a spoof n/t (none / 0)


by JJE on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:26:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And not a funny one (none / 0)


by Angry White Democrat on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:34:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What about NBC/CNBC/MSNBC? (none / 0)

Who are they playing with?  Do you really believe GE is pumping up Obama because he's so progressive?  Please.

***A


by adrienne4dean on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:23:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You are going too far (none / 0)

in your parody of a zealous Clinton supporter please tone the humor down a notch.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:41:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: fox news wants her to win. (none / 0)

You're absolutely insane if you believe that this newfound Fox "support" for Hillary Clinton is anything more than a chance for them to keep the Democratic nomination process messy.

If Obama were in Clinton's position, they would be acting pro-Obama right now.

They don't like Hillary Clinton any more than Rush Limbaugh did during "Operation Chaos"... they just like improving John McCain's odds by helping to drag out the Democrats nomination process.

It wouldn't make a spit of difference who the Democratic nominee is once the General Election campaign begins in earnest.  Fox News was, is, and always will be a propaganda machine for the Republican Party.  They would stab Hillary Clinton in the back within 24 hours if she were to get nominated at the DNC this summer.

The fact that you actually think that they would ever stand by a Democrat - any Democrat, be it Obama or Clinton - shows how absolutely naive you are about the standard operating procedure of a propaganda machine that has been on the air for 12 years - the first 4 of which they spent every waking moment trashing the Clinton family.


by Obamaphile on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:32:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Hillary should continue to campaign until all the states have their primary...so everyone has had a chance to vote and be counted in this most extra-ordinary primary season ever...and then concede on May 20th.

Then she needs to work her @$$ off to get Obama elected in the fall.  This would mean having to explain why she said she's the better candidate for "hard working white Americans"...


by Nighttrain on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:14:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 3)

Usually, the primaries still occur even after it's over.  Little known fact.


by The Animal on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:12:15 PM EST

What's with these 'facts'? (2.00 / 1)

These things you call 'facts' get in the way of creating new realities.

Facts like "Obama's had a bigger net gain in superdelegates in the past 5 days than Clinton's likely to get from WV" or "even Rahm Emmanuel seems to have thrown in the towel" are for reality-based losers.


by RT on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:22:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 2)

it seems alot of HRC supporters have never been through a primary before


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:27:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 2)

Howard Dean's resounding victory in the Vermont Primary was a game-changer!
by Jay R on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:34:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Vermont is his home state.  Not the case here.
***A
by adrienne4dean on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:26:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

No kidding, but much like when Dean took Vermont, the nomination is already decided. Believe it or not, some primaries are held after the outcome is set. This is one of those primaries.
by Jay R on Sat May 10, 2008 at 08:37:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

All the primaries always run to the end (none / 0)

All the voters always get a chance to voice their opinions in every presidential election.

Note that the Republican primaries continue.

Ironcially, McCain still can't get all the votes...

The Nation - Newt Gingrich Warns GOP "Wake up or Perish"

So don't worry, the GOP is not winning anything in November...

-cheers!

-chris


"A ship in port is safe, but that is not what ships are for. Sail out to sea and do new things." Admiral Grace Hopper, computer pioneer
by chrisblask on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:17:39 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Anybody else see this video of Bill losing his patience with a heckler? It was kinda funny. It was also very sad that this great man
would stoop to the level of this person.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ReBygJ9aGV4


by cherrygarcia on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:18:31 PM EST

Poor Bill (none / 0)

he seems to have lost the magic touch this time around.


by JJE on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:22:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 1)

Saw the video.  I thought Bill handled it just fine.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Bill's been doing that for years and god bless him for it. Hecklers deserve to have it thrown back in their faces.


by Mayor McCheese on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:21:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

"since its an open primary, Obama should do much better than the ARG polling."

The ARG link shows their poll is of "likely Democratic primary voters."  Thus, even though ARG is a pretty poor pollster, I suspect even they know it's an open primary and have attempted to poll accordingly.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:21:04 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Agreed.

Also, given how may DINOs there are as registered Democrats here in W.Va. it's really difficult to say what difference it makes having an open primary.

The state demographics are hugely favorable to Hillary. People here remember the Clinton years fondly. I can't think of any particular groups among W.Va. independents that will favor Obama.


by WVaBlue on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:12:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

BREAKING: (2.00 / 3)

Clinton Has Big Poll Lead In Now Meaningless WV Primary

(Wake me when something real happens, like Obama taking the lead in superdelegates. No wait, that happened today. Zzzzzzz.)


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:24:05 PM EST

Meaningless Primary, huh? (none / 0)

In that case, let's strip West Virginia of their delegates to the Democratic National Convention since obviously they aren't going to count for anything.


by andrewalker08 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:27:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Meaningless Primary, huh? (none / 0)

Great comeback!

WV is simply in the position that, in the past, most states have been in before their primaries happen -- it's already been decided.

But by all means let people turn out and make their statement for Obama or Hillary.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:32:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You are the one advocating... (none / 0)

...A complete shut down of this process by making statements like the West Virginia primary is "meaningless."

I prefer to let all the people have their say and to let all the votes count.


by andrewalker08 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:35:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are the one advocating... (none / 0)

He didn't advocate a "complete shut down of this process".

That's something you fabricated so you could pretend to be all offended.


by Frood on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:44:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are the one advocating... (none / 0)

It's called a straw man.


John McCain defends Bush's Iraq strategy.
by recusancy on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:59:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are the one advocating... (none / 0)

In every primary the nominee is known way before all primaries are held. The primaries are still held and the nominee still either wins or loses.  Nothing changes as far as who is known to be the nominee. I can tell a lot of Hillary supporters are new to the process and don't really understand how it works. This is all perfectly normal, except for going on a lot longer than usual.


by Becky G on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are the one advocating... (none / 0)

Oh, come on. What state are you from? I voted in Oregon in the primary for years, and every single time, the nomination has already been decided.It will really be the same this year. But that isn't supposed to happen this time, despite the numbers? Are is it okay as long as it isn't a state that Hillary will win? The thing is over. Move on.


by anoregonreader on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:57:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are the one advocating... (none / 0)

Go back and read what I wrote.......

"But by all means let people turn out and make their statement for Obama or Hillary."


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:58:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are the one advocating... (none / 0)

Were you arguing every other election year about letting my state, Indiana, have its chance? No? That's right, because no one gave two shits about our primary until this year. And I have a feeling that we wouldn't have mattered if Senator Obama had won last Tuesday. We would have been told that we were too Red to be allowed to have a say in the nomination.


by zep93 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:14:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Meaningless Primary, huh? (2.00 / 1)

Sigh, this is phase 2: anger.

You ever play chess with someone who can call "mate" a few moves in advance? That's what's happened here. Player 1 takes WV, Kentucky and Puerto Rico, but Player 2 moves into better position, takes Oregon, Montana and South Dakota, and that's checkmate. the gambits have all been played, now it's just a matter of either going through the motions or Hillary tipping her king.

by Jay R on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:40:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Meaningless Primary, huh? (none / 0)

Where did he say they won't count for anything?

Saying that it's meaningless simply indicates that there aren't enough delegates available there to change the ultimate outcome - a massive Obama win in terms of total pledged delegates. Even if Hillary wins every remaining contest by a 2-1 margin, Obama still finishes more than 70 pledged delegates ahead of Hillary Clinton.

It's over guys.  Hang on to the Titanic if you must, but the ship is going down, and there's nothing that can be done to stop it now.

The superdelegates are proving that to be the case at this very moment.

How many of Obama's SDs have defected to Hillary this season?

That's right... none.

Almost ten have flipped from Clinton to Obama, though.  And there will be more where those came from.


by Obamaphile on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:40:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Since Obama apparently (none / 0)

can't/won't actually campaign here, maybe he could just take his name off the ballot.  Then these great folks who think that we should end the nation's most historic primary before everyone has voted can truly discount WV and WV voters.

In the meantime, I saw Bill Clinton today in Wayne, WV.  He was great, and he got a great response.  


by mgee on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:44:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: (none / 0)

"It will all be over on Feb. 5th" - Hillary Clinton, December 2007

Now what is she saying?


by kitebro on Fri May 09, 2008 at 07:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Now what is she saying? (none / 0)

"West Virginia is my firewall -- and after that, Puerto Rico!"


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Fri May 09, 2008 at 07:31:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 1)

Obama has already conceded that she is going to take West Virginia by a large margin.

She will also win Kentucky by a lower margin.

But she needs to win everything.  She won't.

Here's my predictions for the rest of primaries:

WVA: Clinton 60, Obama 38
KY:  Clinton 53, Obama 46
OR:  Obama 54, Clinton 44
MON: Obama 52, Clinton 46
SD:  Obama 51, Clinton 48
PR:  Clinton 55, Obama 45

Did I forget one?  Oh well.  This will leave Obama STILL AHEAD in pledged delegates, popular vote, and number of states won.  By a significant margin.

My only question is: will the media change their narrative YET AGAIN when Clinton stages a "huge comeback" by winning W. Va. and Ky.?  I'm bearing down in anticipation for Tim Russert to say "well, this is a game changer."

I'd like to think that they would not do that, since once the media creates a narrative, it takes forever to turn that giant ocean liner around.   They can be a little stubborn about that.  

But, as Fats Waller once opined, "One never know, do one?"  


Peace, S.
by Reluctantpopstar on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:24:25 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Whoa, is Obama really that close in Puerto Rico?


by Mostly on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:30:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

38% in WV is extremely optimistic for Obama. So is 46% in KY.

I think Obama will be lucky to get the 25% of the vote he needs in WV to hold Hillary to a 10 delegate pickup. I also expect him to be below 40% in KY.

The rest of your predictions look okay to me, though I have no idea what's going to happen in PR.


by Angry White Democrat on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:37:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Well, your first predication disqualifies the whole lot. I'll be surprised if Obama cracks 25% in WV.


Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America
by Zeitgeist9000 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:43:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Are you the same person that posts as the troll BeThatBrighterDay?

I ask that because your username is zeitgeist9000, and at the end of one of BeThatBrighterDay's diaries he added "I can be contacted at editor@zeitgeistreport.com."



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:08:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

No.


Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America
by Zeitgeist9000 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:15:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Thanks



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:34:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Weren't you also predicting a NC win for Hillary and a 20-point margin in PA?  


by ChrisKaty on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:19:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Are you using the same methodology you used for this prediction?:

http://www.mydd.com/comments/2008/5/5/15 1358/5645/2#2


by Brannon on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:56:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Thank you for sharing that post.

It's pretty amazing to see the difference between the expectations people had prior to those two primaries and the actual outcome.  


John McCain
by ottto on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

I am not so sure that PR will go for Hillary.  I have heard that Obama has a lot of support there.  Maybe he should make a visit there.


by Spanky on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:55:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)


Biggest blogger (opinion piece in the paper) on the biggest local daily says it's over.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/diario/blog/40 1930

They don't think PR will even have a primary.

If they do, Obama landslide me thinks. Nobody wants to back the losing horse (no pun intended, seriously).

Contra la pared Hillary Clinton

Backed in a corner Hillary Clinton


by cherrygarcia on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:23:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The frame is already set (2.00 / 1)

Obama has been expected to lose there badly since the beginning. If he somehow loses by 10 or less, that would be big news. However, I don't see it happening. His only support base will be the extreme eastern panhandle.


by RandyMI on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:25:24 PM EST

Re: The frame is already set (2.00 / 1)

Agreed, as far as momentum coming out of WV goes, there's no way that Hillary can win. All that can happen is Obama does as expected, or better than expected.
by Jay R on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:41:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Like Huckabee in Kansas (2.00 / 2)

Huckabee won a few states, like Kansas, after McCain had effectively sown up the GOP nomination on Super Tuesday. Other than a few passing media comments, nobody doubted for a second that McCain's path to the nomination was in jeopardy.

All Kansas did was confirm that some Republicans don't like McCain. That's all West Virginia will do: confirm that some Democrats don't like Obama.


by elrod on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:26:42 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

I've been to WV.  I've met some people there with some rather backwards views on race.

And gender, sure, but especially race.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:27:02 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 2)

John Cole says that he knows more racist Dems there than Republicans. Recently read something from either WV or KY about someone never being able to vote for Obama out of fear he'd put the blacks in charge of everything...not the most progressive states ever.


by Mullibok on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:42:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

I've never, I wanna repeat, NEVER been in a state that creeped me out than West Virginia.  The camping was good, the trails are nice, the roads are flat.

The people, however, aren't much like me.  And I'm not insulting them.  Its just culture shock.  And before anybody says a word, I'm from South Carolina, hardly a bastion of effete liberalism.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Virginia, and West Virgina are like two different countries.  Sometimes, you just have to wonder why.


by Spanky on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:52:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

On May 21st, nobody will be talking about West Virginia.  Why waste time with it now?


by crackerdog on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:27:26 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Look, another supporter of the 50 state plan shows how they really feel about those small red states.


by therealdeal on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:03:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Long held revulsion to prejudice" (none / 0)

I'm curious how many people in the exit poll in WV will say that race mattered a "great deal" and voted for Clinton. My guess is that the number hits 35%.

Tolerance of a Catholic is one thing. Tolerance of a black man is very different.


by elrod on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:28:58 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

So I take it this means small states are finally important according to Clinton?

Thanks for the notice.  I mean, after months of campaigning, it's nice to see the Clinton's care about smaller states for once.


by RussTC3 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:31:51 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Well, remember it is not one of those small caucus states like Iowa. Also, this is one that supports Hillary and that is the only reason this small state counts.  LOL.


by Spanky on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:50:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Also, I doubt there are many lattes consumed in WV.


by sorrodos on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:01:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

So you missed the little campaign in NH this winter?


by Mayor McCheese on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:24:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

check out this vintage Kennedy ad... (none / 0)

in West Virginia in 1960:

http://technorati.com/videos/youtube.com %2Fwatch%3Fv%3DwJyb9R_TL8M

The only suspense in this contest is if Obama will receive the symbolic endorsement of Senator Byrd on Sunday or Monday.  That would be something.


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:35:17 PM EST

WV is important (none / 0)

It is Important for the momentum of either candidate. Not to the same degree as Indiana was because of the Number of delegates. However a Big win (10 points or more) by Hillary or a good showing by Obama (-10 point loss or better) can effectively catapult or cripple the respective candidates. Mathematically no difference but as to the morale and direction of the party big significance. Obama needs to campaign hard in WV. even if he can't win both Nominees need to lay grassroots for the fall harvest.


by txexspeedy on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:35:51 PM EST

Re: WV is important (none / 0)

As an Obama supporter, I don't particularly agree with this. Obama is going to lose by more than 10 there, for sure. If he spends a lot of time, he risks making the loss look more significant. And he'll never win WV in the fall -- this is one state where I'll concede Hillary would have a much better chance. Best to write it off and camp out in Oregon for a couple weeks...and maybe visit some November battleground states too.


by Mullibok on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:44:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Um...... (2.00 / 2)

You all realize this is already over, don't you?


by IowaMike on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:37:21 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 2)

Are we trying to pretend that this primary has any relevance whatsoever in the final determination of the nominee? Just curious, cause it seems that way but really! The General Election matchup is set folks, why keep hashing out the primary season?


by wasder on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:40:09 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

You're free to move on, start some positive diaries about Obama or criticize McCain.  Seems you would rather mock fellow Democrats, though.


by therealdeal on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:05:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 1)

For the record all you Hillary supporters:

Nobody is advocating anything that would prevent people from voting in the remaining contests.  Not one single person has suggested it.  I'm not, Senator Obama hasn't, and nobody I've read here is doing any such thing.

What we've said is that mathematically it won't make any DIFFERENCE to who wins and who loses.  Most contests end WELL BEFORE this point in the process.  People still get to vote.  But the issue has already been decided.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:44:02 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (2.00 / 1)

It is too bad for WV democratic voters.  They could have been part of history in the making by voting for our next democratic president of the US, and the first elected AA president.


by Spanky on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:47:00 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Ironic...  Since West Virginia seceded from Virginia proper to stay loyal to the union... There were few slaves in West Virginia, or even most of Appalachia... The residents of the mountains tended to be poorer subsistence farmers than the cavaliers in the giant plantations of the east.

While slaveholding in WV only ended when the 14th ammendment was passed (the emancipation proclamation did not apply to them), apparently the legacy continues in the latent racial tension that rivals the Deep South, but without the actual AA population to support such attitudes.

It certainly is a shame, and I hope that at some point, we will make more progress in this area.  I'd love to see WV move away from a dixiecratic state to a democratic one.  We have half their hearts and minds right now... let's work on the other half!


by LordMike on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:56:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Anti-slavery did not always mean anti-racism. Many mountaineers opposed slavery because they wanted to keep the slaveholders - and their blacks slaves - out. They didn't care about blacks themselves. This is the difference between "antislavery" and "abolitionist."

Also, only about half of West Virginia really was staunchly Unionist. Because McClelland was able to reach the peaks of the Allegheny Mountains by 1862, the new statehood movement could claim land further east than where attitudes broke toward the Confederacy.

Note that here in East Tennessee folks were even more pro-Union than West Virginians. But the Union army could never gain a foothold down here so we got stuck with the rest of Tennessee - despite trying to secede from the state.


by elrod on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:10:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Credibility (none / 0)

Yet another vague, poorly argued, only tangentially relevant anti-Obama post. At some point, after a certain amount of these, shouldn't Jerome be concerned about his concerned about his credibility?


by Ozymandias on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:48:36 PM EST

Hillary will win this state BIG but will (none / 0)

it matter?

Nope.  Not in the media's eyes.


by puma on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:49:28 PM EST

Re: Hillary will win this state BIG but will (none / 0)

Thank you, Media.


Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America
by Zeitgeist9000 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:18:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

1960 was before the modern primary/caucus nominating process was in place.

West Virginia and Kentucky should be comfortable wins for Clinton. They have 28 and 51 delegates respectively. Of these 79 delegates she has a fair shot at winning in the mid to upper-40s. It will be anything but decisive though.

It will be nice when your analysis becomes more objective and less partisan. Kind of like how it used to be.


by wengler on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:49:40 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

That's right. WV mattered in large part because there were very few primaries.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:02:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

We're at the point where in 1865 Jefferson Davis was fleeing to Mexico to set up a government-in-exile while the die hards predicted their last remaining army under Gen. Johnston would rout Sherman's army and turn the tide.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:04:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

FWIW the Media narrative and significant wins by Hillary could cause an attempt at some kind of coup or chikaneery at the convention to get Hillary on the top of the ticket.


by txexspeedy on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:51:07 PM EST

Alright! Great analysis. (none / 0)

Mr. Disconnected and totally objective.

Hope springs eternal right?

West Virginia and Kentucky extend it to Oregon where the numbers become too overwhelming.

That's the best case, non miracle scenario there.

As an aside, how about focusing some of that "completely objective" writing towards the Republican nominee?


by neutron on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:54:13 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (1.00 / 1)

Obama gave a speech at the last convention and will accept the nomination in the next one.

Problem is, he has done nothing in this time to deserve it.

What is his short term solution on gas prices?

What has he led on?

Much ado about nothing.


by gotalife on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:00:16 PM EST

As of 3 p.m. CST (none / 0)

Obama has picked up 8 SDs today:

-California DNC Ed Espinoza
-California DNC Vernon Watkins
-Maryland DNC John Gage
-New Jersey Rep. Donald Payne
-Oregon Rep. DeFazio.
-South Carolina Chair Wilber Lee Jeffcoat
-New Mexico Addon Laura Weahkee
-Hawaii Congresswomen Mazie Hirono


by bookish on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:01:06 PM EST

Re: As of 3 p.m. CST (none / 0)

Wow - I hadn't seen all those.  BTW, one switched from Clinton to Obama, making him +9 for the day.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:02:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As of 3 p.m. CST (none / 0)

Oops, I'm wrong - It's +7 for Obama since Clinton gained one.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:03:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As of 3 p.m. CST (none / 0)

Payne was the switch, so she is -1/+1 for a 0 net.


by bookish on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:08:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Bill seems to draw in crowds, but not be able to keep them interested:

While the crowd gave Clinton an extremely warm welcome, many in the crowd seemed to lose interest as he began his speech -- even during his appeal for a high voter turnout.

During the course of Clinton's hour long speech, many people wandered out but those that did stay listened intently to Clinton discuss his wife's energy and education plans for America.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/ 2008/05/bill-clinton-we.html


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:15:58 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Maybe Obama could keep their interest!  Guess we'll never know, though, since he can't be bothered to show up in the state.


by therealdeal on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:08:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

It is over - Clinton has no chance to win. She is behind in Oregon and WV is a drop in th ebucket. When will Jerome recognize reality and quit hawking the failed Clinton candidacy. She has no one to blame but herself for running a lousy campaign and picking stupid people like Penn to run the campaign. It shows what her presidency would have been like - incompetent. And we are supposed to trust her to win the GE? I was willing to vote for her - but she refused to say her Iraq vote and speech was a mistake, she lied about bosnia and now she is pandering on the stupid gas tax - which will not help anyone but the oil companies. Please - it is over. She blew it. I wnated a woman president - but not at any price.


by correctnotright on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:36:33 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

It's time to concede that the race is over Jerome, instead of trying to create an egotistical journey based on ripping the Democratic Party in two, why don't you just admit that it's over.


by TheNewMexican on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:52:27 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

I agree.  It is time for our party to heal, not stay divided in two camps. The blogs can start that healing process, then the main stream media will follow-- hasn't that been the way with the news.

I am a Hillary supporter, but even I (50 year old white feminist) realize that it is over.  Now I'm gonna do everything I can to help Obama.  First on the agenda is to get the blogs on healing platform.  Enough already of trying to force Hillary on the electorate.  Obama is winning and will be the winner.  Let's concentrate on his good qualities, the messages of Clinton's that he should add to his campaign, and tackling Mr. Lost His Bearings, Mc Same!

P.S. Stop moping Jerome.  It doesn't do you well.


by citizensane on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:57:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Clearly, West Virginia is the tie-breaker...


by Skaje on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:05:52 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

LOL!


by kitebro on Fri May 09, 2008 at 07:10:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I wonder if (2.00 / 1)

they were talking about West Virginia as the stern of the Titanic slid into the cold North Atlantic?


by reggie44pride on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:27:47 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Go ahead keep on insulting my home state.

Obama wont even get 25% of the vote in the Mountain State.

Oh but wait, thats fine right cause we are all backwards right?


by TheBlueWarriors on Fri May 09, 2008 at 07:07:35 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

Not all.


by kitebro on Fri May 09, 2008 at 07:11:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

No, the ones who you are referring to are the backward, intolerant ones.... they've been waiting for themselves too long.


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri May 09, 2008 at 07:39:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

No Democrat has won the White House, without West Virginia (except in 1916, when I think CT was a GOP state...)

The only way Obama can win WV is to pick someone like Clark or Hugh Shelton or Governor Joe Manchin.

WV is begging to vote for the Democrat, it just does not need to be given reasons not to.


by TheBlueWarriors on Fri May 09, 2008 at 09:32:46 PM EST

Re: West Virginia primary a few days away (none / 0)

OMG, are you guys even serious? Give it up already. Please, Clinton will not win the nomination. When she loses, I am sure you will be wanting her to run as a third party candidate. Screw the fact that Obama and Clinton are so close together compared to McCain. You just want your candidate to win. Get over yourselves. The game is OVER. You can go home now.

In the words of John Edwards as spoken by Hillary Clinton, this is not about Hillary, this is not about Jerome.  This is about the democrats winning back the presidency. I mean it would be funny if it weren't so pathetic.


by erlin on Sat May 10, 2008 at 01:13:08 AM EST


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