New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 [Updated]

43 points..  The Survey was conducted on May 7 and 8, after Tuesday's elections.

Clinton 66
Obama 23
Undec. 6

The pollster, ARG:

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 57% to 27% among men (43% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 72% to 20%.

Clinton leads 70% to 19% among white voters (93% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 91% to 3% among African American voters (5% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 61% to 27% among voters age 18 to 49 (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 72% to 19% among voters age 50 and older.

13% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 45% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. Source.

Question for ARG:  In the last paragraph of the above report, should "primary" read "general election?" Seems like that might be a typo. I suspect that 45% said they would never vote for Obama.

This is the second pollster in 2 days that has predicted a Clinton win in West Virginia of more than 40 points.  The other one is discussed here.  

Now, someone left a comment in my diary Desperate to Win yesterday pointing out that West Virginia has only 28 delegates.  True, but what would a 40-point defeat in a GE swing state say about Obama's electability and his ability to assemble a winning coalition for the Democrats?

Kentucky, a state with 51 delegates that votes in less than 2 weeks, also looks likely to hand Clinton a landslide victory.  Survey USA's recent poll this week predicts a 34-point win for HRC.  That's the 3rd consecutive poll for Kentucky by SUSA in April/May with a 30+ point margin.

Interestingly, RCP does not make it easy to find the poll results for these upcoming states.  They're sort of buried, but they are there if you dig.

UPDATE: In the Comments thread to this post, an Obama supporter wrote: "I wonder what turnout will be." Interesting question coming from an Obama supporter because I believe that Obama announced his plans yesterday to announce his victory on May 20 in order to keep voter turnout low in the upcoming states. He doesn't want Hillary to drive up her popular vote counts. However, I can assure you that Clinton's phone bankers are connecting with enthusiastic voters in West Virginia, Kentucky, and elsewhere who cannot wait to go to the polls. To Hillary supporters: keep up the great GOTV efforts!

Cross posted at TexasDarlin

TexasDarlin, all rights reserved
Not affiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign



Display:


Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 13)

Wow, 2 landslides for Hillary coming up!


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:39:37 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 4)

So let me understand this...you're "wow"ing your own post?


by FlashStash on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:44:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

yup, thats a common tactic that (1.42 / 7)

alegre uses, first comment if from the diarist + plus maybe first response to the comment is from the diarist.

Since those comment usually praise and reaffirm their point in them diary it looks like people are agreeing with them. Brilliant tactic I must say.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:48:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

C O L !!!! Seriously? (2.00 / 5)

Dude - You boys DO understand how a tip jar works!  Don't you?

You boys spend so much time and effort including bashing me in your comments that I'm starting to suspect you have a crush on me :)

HEY TD:  Great news on that WV    poll.  THanks for posting this!  HIGHLY RECd!!!!


Donate to Hillary Now!
by alegre on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:22:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I stand by my analysis (2.00 / 2)


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

dont quit your day job (2.00 / 2)


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:38:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: dont quit your day job (none / 0)

...to become a blog post analyst. I hear it pays poorly.


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:56:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I stand by my analysis (none / 0)

I agree. That is not the normal tip jar tactic, but it does appear to be a good way of ensuring the comment section starts on a pro-diarist thread.

Just sayin.


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:44:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C O L !!!! Seriously? (2.00 / 1)

Thanks, Alegre, I think they're envious of you.


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C O L !!!! Seriously? (2.00 / 3)

Of course you say it's "boys" because you can't imagine that women don't support Clinton.

In most states, women under 65 went for Obama.  That's a whole lot of women.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:49:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C O L !!!! Seriously? (2.00 / 2)

By states you mean, states that don't count.  And by women you mean women that don't count, because they didn't support Hillary.  Check your facts first.


"We have said since Iowa that this is a race for delegates."
-Howard Wolfson
by belicheat on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:39:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C O L !!!! Seriously? (2.00 / 2)

and if you don't count the black women, i'm sure hillary won too! black voters don't really count!


by jbill on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:37:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 7)

let me understand this, you're commenting on the diarist and not on the numbers?


by anna shane on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:48:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

and you are commenting on the (2.00 / 2)

commenter? not the diarist or the numbers? ;)


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:49:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 2)

Why bother commenting on the numbers?

It's hard to do so without coming to the inevitable conclusion that southerners have a long way to go in race relations.  Arkansas was roughly similar, but nobody held is up as an example of her strength.

Cycloptichorn


by Lawyerish on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:55:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 5)

That was quick!  Less than 20 minutes to attribute a Hillary strength to racism.

And Obamabots wonder why HRC supporters will not vote for him if he is the nominee.  If McCain wins, he should give a victory speech thanking the Obamabots.


by PlainWords on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 3)

There's little doubt that when the numbers are so overwhelmingly high in her favor - and so different from practically every other state who have voted, or will vote - there are other factors behind her support then mere agreement with some of her policies.


by Lawyerish on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:09:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yep. Same old tired BS from (2.00 / 3)

from the same tired playbook. If someone votes for Hillary they are racist. If Hillary acknowledges that vote, she is racist. If 93% of African Americans vote for Obama it's because every single one of them thinks he is the most qualified for the job. Give it a rest already.


Obama supporter working to defeat McCain.
by Rumarhazzit on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:43:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep. Same old tired BS from (1.66 / 3)

What's your explanation, for why she is leading by 40 points in the area?

It's not reflective of her level of support in almost every other area of the country.  Why?  What's different about this place?

I think that the fact that Arkansas had similar numbers, and has such a majority white population, is quite telling.


by Lawyerish on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:23:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Same old tired BS from Obamabots (2.00 / 2)

If I apply your same reasoning to Obama's African American supporters, it proves they are racists.  So why aren't you raising that issue about North Carolina and many of Obama's other victories?  I don't suppose it could be because you are a hypocrite?


by PlainWords on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:30:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep. Same old tired BS from (2.00 / 1)

Um, perhaps the explanation for her numbers in Arkansas is that she was the first lady there for two terms and her popular governor husband went on to become President of the United States--ya think?


by kayebee on Fri May 09, 2008 at 08:23:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep. Same old tired BS from (2.00 / 2)

Absolutely.  Because African Americans are NEVER bloc voters.  They like, TOTALLY didn't support Bill Clinton with 90% of the vote in the primary either.  Or Gore.  Or Kerry.

And I've heard some crazy things, but calling West Virginia backwards?  They're the second most progressive state in the union - do you have any idea how many black Governors, Senators, and Representatives they had?  Half the characters in "Coal Miner's Daughter" were freedom riders.  The Appalachian branch of the Black Panther Party was the largest in the nation.

But credit where credit is due: the MOST progressive state in the union is Kentucky. If Hillary wins there, THAT will be something.  Appalachia is basically Oakland in its politics.  They don't tolerate bigotry or klansmen there in any form.


by Mostly on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:27:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

What's so amazing?  Clinton's had huge support in Appalachia the entire campaign.  30-point wins in WV and KY perfectly follow the pattern set by the Appalachian sections of PA, VA, NC, SC, TN, and so on.

I mean, good on her, it's excellent for her that she has this support, but it's not a surprise to anyone who's been paying attention.  I mean, this holds the same amount of surprise as Obama's big victory margin in the Wyoming caucus a few weeks back.


by Rorgg on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:38:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Kentucky is in Appalachia? (none / 0)

Sparsely populated eastern Kentucky, yeah, but isn't the vast majority of the population not over there? It seems a reasonably diverse border state, big city of Louisville, 'burbs of another big city (Cincinnati), and winnable for Clinton in the general election but solid red if Obama is the Dem candidate.


We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.
by fairleft on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:02:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kentucky is in Appalachia? (2.00 / 1)

About a third of Kentucky is within Appalachia proper, but the rest is near territory that's been no less friendly to Clinton -- southern OH and IN, Tennessee, and SE MO/NE AR.


by Rorgg on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:19:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kentucky is in Appalachia? (2.00 / 2)

I have one word for you: ridgerunners.

Kentucky's political culture is one of the worst in the nation.  Outside of East Texas (and Western Louisiana) it's one of the few areas that have significant KKK strongholds.


by Mostly on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:05:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

WooHoo.. awesome news TaxasDarlin (2.00 / 5)

Thanks so much :) Go Hillary!

BTW, I can Rec diaries now ;)


by phoenixdreamz on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:46:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

So if the final results are anything less than say a 30 point win (13 points lower than this poll) would you say that Obama has gained ground and that the result should be considered a disappointment to Hillary?


by Tatan on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:49:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

Before you blow up at me. My point isn't to suggest that you should consider a 30 point win a disappointment but rather that you aren't doing your candidate any favors by setting this as the expectation. She won't win by 43%, she might win by slightly more than 20... so if I were you, I'd be trying to make this look like a competitive contest so that her HUGE win can be a big surprise.


by Tatan on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:51:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

Never, Never, Never, even if Obama loses by 2 points, it will be called a bitter defeat. The next day Blog would read: How did Barack Obama lose W.Va.?


John McCain: Everyones nowhere man
by johnny sexton on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:59:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

86% (2.00 / 1)

Hillary needs 86% of all remaining contests in order to win.  43 isn't enough.  


by dystopianfuturetoday on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:52:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice Try (2.00 / 1)

You seem to be forgetting (or IGNORING) the superdelegates.

And NEITHER candidate can win without them.


Donate to Hillary Now!
by alegre on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:27:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nice Try (2.00 / 2)

The superdelegates?  Obama now has the majority of those, too.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nice Try (2.00 / 1)

And Hillary is consistently losing them. It's what, 15 for Barack, including TWO SWITCHES this week (which means a loss for HRC, which means essentially they count for two.  Study Sun Tsu if this is lost on you), and HRC got 3?

Sounds like he's winning that metric too.  At least ABC says so.


by steampunkx on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:40:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nice Try (2.00 / 2)

Seriously Alegre - reality check...

Given the undeniable trend of Supers towards Obama - a trend that has been going on for months and shows no signs of abating - a trend that is in fact speeding up as we speak - how in the world can you say with a straight face that the Supers are going to come out and hand this nomination to Clinton?

Are they just waiting until the very last minute because they like the suspense? Do they actually want Clinton to get deeper into debt and lend herself more money while she waits for the Supers to hand her the nomination? Seems fairly sadistic. If they really, truly plan on backing her in any significant numbers, why the hell don't they do it already?


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:48:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nice Try (2.00 / 1)

Okay.  Hillary Clinton can win 61% of the remaining pledged delegates, and she still will be 116 pledged delegates behind Barack Obama.  Now which states has she won 61+ percent of the pledged delegates?  Oklahoma (63%), Rhode Island (62%), and Arkansas (77%)?  Do you honestly think the superdelegates will come to that vastly different conclusion than the voters did?


by Brad G on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:49:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Debunked (2.00 / 1)

Alegre, as I told you yesterday. In 1992 Bill Clinton claimed "presumptive" nominee status with neither a majority of pledged delegates or super delegates. He was able to claim it as soon as it became impossible for any of his opponents to catch up... a full 2 months before he was actually able to hit the magic number.

I'm still waiting for you to respond to any of my comments regarding this from yesterday.

http://www.mydd.com/comments/2008/5/8/23 239/43807/65#65

Obviously, the facts are working against you here. It might be in your interest to quit using this nonsense talking point.


by Tatan on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:38:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

At This Point (2.00 / 1)

The last thing Hillary's hard core want hear about are the facts or the math.
Don't hold your breath for her comments.
Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie
by toyomama on Fri May 09, 2008 at 09:01:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A 40 point win (2.00 / 1)

doesn't even tread water.  Every time she misses the mark, the percentage goes higher.  Until around May 20th, when that percentage exceeds 100%.

But, I think this point has been ceded by most Clinton backers.

Awesome spread for the good junior senator from NY.  Let Clinton get those sweeps in WV and Kentucky, and let her go out in style.


You haven't seen impatient until you've seen a monkey waiting for a donut.
by bjones on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:43:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 3)

Also, in NC, Obama got double votes counted or equal to 1% of the total.  No wonder he won by 14%.

"MECKLENBURG & WAKE COUNTIES -- Vote tallies are changing in the state's two largest counties, after certain ballots were counted twice in Mecklenburg and Wake counties.

The mistake didn't change the outcome of any elections, but it is a cause for concern to election directors. For example, when Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama declared victory Tuesday night in North Carolina's primary, he was given approximately 15,000 votes more than he should have been. That's 1 percent of all ballots cast.

In Wake County, early and absentee ballots were counted as part of the individual voters precincts and again as a whole. "So in essence, those voters were recorded double," said Cherie Poucher of the Wake Co. Board of Elections. It was around 37,000 votes.

In Mecklenburg County, only absentee ballots - 2,400 in all - were doubled. "It doesn't change any of the results," said Michael Dickerson of the Mecklenburg Co. Board of Elections. "All the winners are still the winners."

http://news14.com/content/top_stories/59 5595/mecklenburg--wake-find-vote-flaws/D efault.aspx


by mcctx on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:58:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

Heh.

You do know, the final count in Indiana...

http://www.in.gov/apps/sos/primary/sos_p rimary08?page=office&countyID=-1& ;partyID=-1&officeID=36&district ID=-1&districtshortviewID=-1&can didate=

... shows that Hillary won by just over 14,000 votes. Percentage-wise, she got 50.56% of the vote, to Obamas 49.44%.

That's a 1.12% difference.

But, if you round up, it's a 2% difference. But only if you round up and count from their victory percentages.

So, if you're worried that an extra percentage point may be influencing views on Obama's electoral strength, rest assured that an extra percentage point is helping Clinton supporters fail to see the writing on the wall.

28 delegates in WV. I expect Obama will double that in Superdel support before then.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

You don't round 1.1 to 2!!!


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

What I meant is that most news sites are rounding Hillary's 50.6% as 51, and Obama's 49.4 as 49. That's why if you go to, say, Politico, they show Clinton defeating Obama 51-49. That's technically true and misleadingly false simultaneously.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:16:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

Absolutely conceded. Hillary will win West Virginia and Kentucky by big numbers, but not close to the 80% she needs. I do hope that Sen. Obama spends some time in both states before their primaries, to begin to lay the groundwork for the general election, but the numbers out of those states on primary day don't really matter much. There's no way to spin that up to some big Clinton comeback. Her opportunity for a comeback is gone.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:45:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

Unfortunately, the MSM has a way of deciding for themselves whether to spin a comeback.  They've had an awfully good time in the last couple of months repeatedly writing Clinton off then breathlessly hailing her magnificent return.

Let's say she wins huge in WV.  The media narrative turns to the fact that the almost universally declared presumptive nominee couldn't win this important swing state, even after his opponent was already declared a dead duck.

Suddenly the media has their exciting drama, one more time.


The universe is a casual place, not a suit-and-tie affair.
by mtnspirit on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:11:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sorry. No. (2.00 / 1)

The media has already universally said that Obama will lose WV and KY by huge numbers, as has the candidate himself. There's no story here, unless it's that after WV Hillary will have even less chance at the nomination. When you get to the point where you need 80% in all the remaining states, it's really hard to spin a positive narrative, even out of a 40% win in a state that was never going to go to Obama.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

Unfortunately, the MSM has a way of deciding for themselves whether to spin a comeback.  They've had an awfully good time in the last couple of months repeatedly writing Clinton off then breathlessly hailing her magnificent return.

Let's say she wins huge in WV.  The media narrative turns to the fact that the almost universally declared presumptive nominee couldn't win this important swing state, even after his opponent was already declared a dead duck.

Suddenly the media has their exciting drama, one more time.


The universe is a casual place, not a suit-and-tie affair.
by mtnspirit on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:12:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

her magic number is 85 percent. if she doesn't get that, obama will meet the viability threshold, and keep racking up delegtes. he'll get blown out, sure, but she'll only net 8-10 delegates. he's gained 5 on her today.

and really, is it any secret that the voters of west virginia aren't apt to support the black guy?

yes, i'm saying there are racists in west virginia. even in the democratic party. and they won't vote for a black dude. not all, but many.

fuck 'em.


by jbill on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:44:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But You Played On (none / 0)

You didn't quit until the buzzer. Then when the game was over, you didn't whine and may have even shook hands with your opponents. That's what I expect in this primary contest.


Dizzy Zzyzzy
by Zzyzzy on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:15:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 8)

Rock on Hillary


Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:39:45 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

I wonder what turnout will be in WV.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:42:18 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (1.70 / 10)

Why do you wonder that?  Is your candidate trying to suppress it?  Clinton's phone bankers are connecting with very enthusiastic voters, fyi.


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:45:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 6)

Wow, way to take a basic question and twist it into an attack. Take a breath.


by upstate girl on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:46:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

Really. It seems like a reasonable question to me, considering her big poll lead there. Frequently turnout is down when it seems very clear who is going to win a race.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:51:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We are voting (2.00 / 2)

for more than president, believe it or not.  


by mgee on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:53:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We are voting (2.00 / 1)

Please educate me. What are the hot races in WV? Thanks. :}


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:54:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We are voting (2.00 / 2)

There are two seats on the state Supreme Court at issue, and these will likely be decided in the Democratic primary, as only one Republican has filed.  One of the seats is held by a justice who recently had to recuse himself from all cases involving AT Massey Coal Company after counsel for Harmon Coal Company presented photographs of said justice (Spike Maynard) vacationing in Monaco with Don Blankenship, the president of AT Massey and a lightning rod in WVa politics.  (Note: I'm wildly unimpressed with the rest of the candidates, including the alleged progressive candidate.)

That's the biggest statewide race.  The governor and congressional delegation will all be re-nominated, which will ensure their return to office.

Nevertheless, on the ground, the biggest races are local.  Magistrates, circuit judges, sheriffs, school board, county commission, mayor, et cetera, can all be important races locally.  The signs you see (everywhere) are more about these local races than either the statewide races or the national presidential primary.  I've seen television commercials for: all three presidential candidates (yes, McCain is on the air here); all four Democratic Supreme Court candidates; Governor Manchin; a local circuit judge race; mayor; state senate; and sheriff.


by mgee on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:38:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We are voting (2.00 / 1)

Interesting - thanks.

Are the Democratic presidential candidates advertising?  And how are their field operations?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:46:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We are voting (1.50 / 2)

Are you implying that there could not be any important races in WV?


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:46:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We are voting (2.00 / 1)

You never miss an opportunity to pick a fight.


by Mostly on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:11:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 5)

Why else would he announce in advance that he plans to announce his victory on May 20?  


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:59:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

It is the norm that when a candidate gets the lead in pledged delegates, that he announces it.

John McCain did this earlier in the year. Every nominee does it.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:04:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

To blunt the news (2.00 / 3)

of Hillary's 2 blowout victories. We already know that, of course.


by phoenixdreamz on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:06:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: To blunt the news (2.00 / 1)

No, because candidates always do that.  

Here's a story from when McCain did it.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080305 /D8V70DH02.html


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:18:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I was referring to his choice of May 20th (none / 0)

which is also the date of the Kentucky primary contest.


by phoenixdreamz on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:29:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was referring to his choice of May 20th (2.00 / 1)

He'll announce it then because that's when he'll have the lead in pledged delegates.

That's what every other candidate does -- Just check out the article about McCain. He did it when he clinched.  They all do.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:31:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is Women's Voices Women's Votes (1.00 / 2)

making robocalls?  Then there may indeed be voter suppression.


by JJE on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:02:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 2)

I wonder what the weather will be like on election day.

Likely response: What? Do you plan on deploying a weather-control satellite to disenfranchise west virginia the way you disenfranchised Florida and Michigan with your Dickish-State-Party-Control Satellite?


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:19:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh Noes! Obama's DOOOOOOOOOMED (2.00 / 3)

Call the Super-D's! This is a game changer!


by rhetoricus on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:42:38 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 2)

Woo hooo!!!!

With this win she'll make up the delegates she needs and then some!

Um...wait.


by cherrygarcia on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:42:51 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 2)

From the article above -

Tom Susman, president of TSG, said if that vote holds true on Election Day it would give Clinton 18 pledged delegates to Obama's 10.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:44:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

EIGHT!??  She is losing more than 8 superdelegates a week.

As of today, Obama is AHEAD in Superdelegates (and pledged delegates and popular vote and states)


by rf7777 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:52:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hell, she lost 9 superdelegates... (1.00 / 1)

... just today!


Ignorance is weakness. Get strong.
by tbetz on Fri May 09, 2008 at 07:46:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hey, Walrus... (none / 0)

... Bitter much?  Thanks for the unwarranted troll rating.  Looks like it's your new hobby.


Ignorance is weakness. Get strong.
by tbetz on Sat May 10, 2008 at 10:41:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

so we can expect 40 (2.00 / 4)

By the way, I'm now expecting a 40 point win for Clinton. Any less and she hasn't met expectations.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:43:02 AM EST

Re: so we can expect 40 (2.00 / 5)

thanks for sharing, we all care so much about your expectations, It's always fun when the guys whose candidate is ahead stays snarky. Why give it up, if it's your thang.  Hey, don't stop sharing, okay?  


by anna shane on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:53:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: so we can expect 40 (2.00 / 1)

Sorry if it sounded snarky.  BTW, what's your expectation?  What margin and how many delegates?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:55:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Anything less than 40, and she'll claim (2.00 / 1)

it was because they battled the far better-funded Obama and prevailed.

Anything less than 30, and they'll say they battled the far better-funded Obama and prevailed.

Anything less than 20 and they'll say they battled the far better-funded Obama and prevailed.

Anything less than 10 and they'll say that they rallied even though Obama was supposed to win WV by 40.


by darthstar on Fri May 09, 2008 at 07:13:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 2)

How about this question?

What does it say about a candidate who has been in the national spotlight for 15+ years and has 100% name recognition when she's can't beat a one term senator from Illinois in states won, delegates won, and whose only trailing by 5 in pleged delegates?

Why can't someone so familiar to so many people in this country do no better than 2nd place?


by FlashStash on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:43:47 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 2)

This line of attack is such a load of garbage.  Recently in American politics, it has become much easier for the candidate with no or little previous national political experience to garner support.  The scorched earth tactics of both parties turn lifelong political careers into a sin.  That's why actors, wrestlers, singers and comedians can run in and win high-profile elections.

McCain gets blown by the press on a daily basis, and his lengthy career was still killing him in the primaries until the Republicans realized all their other candidates were unelectable.  It should play a major role in costing him the general election, too.


by therealdeal on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:56:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

Tell that to failed politician Abe Lincoln. He had little to no experience either. Truly a terrible president.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:20:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

Based on your interpretation of my post, we could just as easily be supporting George Clooney or LeBron James for president.  I hope (and assume) Obama supporters have reasons for their enthusiasm other than "He hasn't had a chance to disappoint us yet."

Since you don't have a rebuttal to my actual point, it seems you agree with it.


by therealdeal on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:14:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)


by FlashStash on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:44:01 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 5)

The Media is trying to make everyone think the election is over in order to lower election turn out in the states HIllary will win.  In order for her not to be able to win the Popular Vote.  The fix is in for Obama.  The media and the DNC are ensuring that.  The fix is in.  


by karajan72 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:46:02 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (1.00 / 1)

Whatever makes you feel better.


by upstate girl on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:47:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Pop vote = 0. Del..a...gates! Rules! Sorry! (none / 0)


by LoneStarLefty on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:52:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

yeah....and Obama took the second shot from the grassy knoll.


by IowaMike on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:01:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

he also faked the moon landing. duh.


by jbill on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:50:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

The fix is in alright.  You and the four people who mojo'd you will never consider a victory by Barack Obama to be legitimate no matter how many hoops he jumps through.

The fix is in.


by Mostly on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:15:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It would be crazy to nominate Clinton (none / 0)

The once-formidable fund-raising machine of Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton has begun to sputter at the worst possible moment for Mrs. Clinton's presidential campaign, Clinton advisers and donors said Thursday, with spending curtailed on political events and advertising as Mrs. Clinton seeks to compete in the last six nominating contests.

...

   The campaign is clearly running low on cash, although advisers would not say how much money -- or how little -- Mrs. Clinton currently has. The campaign had started April with over $10 million in unpaid debts, and Mrs. Clinton was vastly outspent by Senator Barack Obama in North Carolina and Indiana.

She's the better GE candidate?  I don't think so.  Obama is considering limiting donations to less than the federal maximum, because he can, and because it will leave more funds for other Democratic races.

Money's not everything, but politics is nearly an exception.  It would be suicide to nominate Senator Clinton as wounded as she is now.

I think the pollsters who've moved on to only tracking Obama versus McCain, and the general network coverage dismissing Senator Clinton, just shows they're looking at things clearly.


by McNasty on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:17:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

I wonder what the media will say about it? I don't think they will care much.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:46:28 AM EST

Her margin of victory (2.00 / 2)

within voting demographics are sure to spur a flurry of discussions on the issue of Obama's electability in the general election.


by phoenixdreamz on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:56:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Her margin of victory (1.00 / 2)

yeah, clinton is winning the not hardworking i married my sister white american vote.


by IowaMike on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:01:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Keep it up (none / 0)

The more you widen the party divide, you make it that much more difficult for Obama to win the general election.

I really couldn't care less anymore :)


by phoenixdreamz on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Keep it up (2.00 / 1)

she is the one who made the hard working, white america line, college educated line. She is trying to exploit differences.  I just lampooned it.


by IowaMike on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:16:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Knock yourself out (none / 0)

If not this year, then Hillary 2012!


by phoenixdreamz on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:21:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Knock yourself out (none / 0)

Reality sinks in.


by cherrygarcia on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:24:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

As it will for you on Nov. 4 (none / 0)

Smoochies :)


by phoenixdreamz on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:31:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Knock yourself out (none / 0)

Just how does Hillary Clinton win with no black votes?  It's over.

Please, she's done enough damage this cycle.  Must she do everything she can to ruin our chances in four years, if it comes to that?


by Mostly on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 2)

That sounds about right.  All the political analysts are factoring the big wins in WV and kY into their calculations as to who the nominee will be. This info adds nothing new.


by Becky G on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:47:07 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (1.22 / 9)

Women....you are about to get screwed.  The Democratic Party is about to hand the nomination over to this rookie man GQ neophyte, and they are gonna treat the hard working paid her dues woman like a leftover meal and throw her down the garbage disposal.   The Democratic party is about to screw women.


by karajan72 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:48:24 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 5)

As a woman, from me to you - take your ridiculous inflammatory rhetoric elsewhere. Quit hijacking my gender and the actual legitimate harm that's ever been done against it and try to put Senator Clinton's failed campaign in the same category. Its offensive, puerile, and highly untrue, not to mention offensive and frankly stupid.


by upstate girl on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:50:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

If you want to blame someone, blame the voters, not the party.


Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.
by SFValues on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:51:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 2)

The Democratic Party?  You mean the voters? And, by the way, in almost every state, Obama has won women who are under 65.  That's a lot of women who voted for Obama.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:52:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Dogwhistling experience again? (none / 0)

you deserve your candidate and her seniority.

Enjoy her while she lasts!


His head is bowed. He thinks of men and kings. Yea, when the sick world cries, how can he sleep?
by RisingTide on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:54:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good god (2.00 / 2)

Listen to yourself.  The fact that Clinton lost fair and square and the fact that Clinton is female are two seperate issues.

Voting against Hillary Clinton does not make someone a sexist.  Hillary Clinton controlled her own destiny through most of the campaign.

I would also like to point out that she is the one that called herself "girl" diminutively... well, her husband, too.  

I'd like to add that saying, "The Democratic party is going to screw women" is deeply offensive.  The Democratic party is women... and men... and probably several variations in between, given our GLBT friendliness.

It would be like me saying, "Go screw yourself."

Well, maybe I would say that to you.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:55:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

So now the truth comes out. One, you think hillary was ENTITLED to the nomination, and two, you only support her because she's a women.


"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Hillary's husband
by venician on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:05:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

The Democratic party is mostly women at its base, so one wonders how what you say happened.

Oh, yeah, it was because Clinton decided that black women don't count. She thought that Young People, AAs and Women were three distinct rather than three overlapping groups. So by dismissing AAs as merely black bloc-voters, and dismissing young people as Kool-Aid drinkers, she forgot she'd be losing a big chunk of the Women as well.

So she ended up with only White-Women-Over-65 supporting her in big numbers, and suffered complete destruction among black women and young women both.

What a surprise.


by Aris Katsaris on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:31:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

"Women, you are about to be screwed?"

Take your misogynist rhetoric to the GOP where it belongs.


by Mostly on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:18:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Paid her dues"? (2.00 / 1)

So, you're saying she's entitled to the nomination?

Nobody's entitled to the Presidency - it's not a lifetime achievement award.  And if it is, the Democrats have a problem because John McCain has paid more dues.

Hillary is not the party's nominee because people prefer the other candidate's message.


by TL on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:17:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

Women are the majority of the Democratic Party--the Democratic Party has chosen Obama. What's the problem?


by Brannon on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:39:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

your comment is just offensive in so many ways.

if you don't have something intelligent to say, or at least aren't willing to take a stab at a reasoned argument, just don't say anything.

this is just fodder for the freepers.


by j cantarella on Fri May 09, 2008 at 10:13:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 2)

"True, but what would a 40-point defeat in a GE swing state say about Obama's electability and his ability to produce a winning coalition for the Democrats?"

The same thing that Hillary's 60 point loss in ID said about her ability to produce a winning coalition, just to a lesser degree.


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:48:32 AM EST

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 2)

Caucus.


by OrangeFur on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

Okay, what about her 50 point loss in DC?


by Mostly on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:19:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

that't before Rev Wright and the Bitter remarks...

the Republicans are pissed off because of Obama's remarks...  the Democrats are a bit lenient to him.
I can't wait for the GE if he is the nominee=== another wasted chance for the Democrats... drn!


by SHIBAM8P on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

DC has a huge African American population. Of course they count as much as anyone else, but it's not exactly a microcosm of the country.


by OrangeFur on Sat May 10, 2008 at 12:09:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (none / 0)

Nor should WV, with its disproportionate number of blue collar workers, be considered such a microcosm.


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Sat May 10, 2008 at 01:48:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Poll West Va: Clinton Up 43 (2.00 / 1)

Gosh Golly Gee!  This will do it! This is the game changer!  This will surely get her the... Well, it will...

Damn...


by rf7777 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:48:44 AM EST