43 points.. The Survey was conducted on May 7 and 8, after Tuesday's elections.
Clinton 66
Obama 23
Undec. 6
The pollster, ARG:
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 57% to 27% among men (43% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 72% to 20%.Clinton leads 70% to 19% among white voters (93% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 91% to 3% among African American voters (5% of likely Democratic primary voters).
Clinton leads 61% to 27% among voters age 18 to 49 (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 72% to 19% among voters age 50 and older.
13% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 45% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. Source.
Question for ARG: In the last paragraph of the above report, should "primary" read "general election?" Seems like that might be a typo. I suspect that 45% said they would never vote for Obama.
This is the second pollster in 2 days that has predicted a Clinton win in West Virginia of more than 40 points. The other one is discussed here.
Now, someone left a comment in my diary Desperate to Win yesterday pointing out that West Virginia has only 28 delegates. True, but what would a 40-point defeat in a GE swing state say about Obama's electability and his ability to assemble a winning coalition for the Democrats?
Kentucky, a state with 51 delegates that votes in less than 2 weeks, also looks likely to hand Clinton a landslide victory. Survey USA's recent poll this week predicts a 34-point win for HRC. That's the 3rd consecutive poll for Kentucky by SUSA in April/May with a 30+ point margin.
Interestingly, RCP does not make it easy to find the poll results for these upcoming states. They're sort of buried, but they are there if you dig.
UPDATE: In the Comments thread to this post, an Obama supporter wrote: "I wonder what turnout will be." Interesting question coming from an Obama supporter because I believe that Obama announced his plans yesterday to announce his victory on May 20 in order to keep voter turnout low in the upcoming states. He doesn't want Hillary to drive up her popular vote counts. However, I can assure you that Clinton's phone bankers are connecting with enthusiastic voters in West Virginia, Kentucky, and elsewhere who cannot wait to go to the polls. To Hillary supporters: keep up the great GOTV efforts!
Cross posted at TexasDarlin
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Not affiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign
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