Delegates matter
It's pretty clear why Clinton is staying in the race: delegates. And it's also clear now that Florida and Michigan will have delegates that count. Even Obama is now saying that Florida's delegates will be seated prior to the convention:
``He assured us that Florida delegates will be at the convention and they'll have their party hats on,'' reported South Florida Congressman Tim Mahoney, one of the uncommitted superdelegates.
This appears to be the first time Obama, the front-runner for the nomination, has made such a clear, definite promise. Hillary Clinton, his rival for the nomination, has made the pledge several times.
...Just how those delegates would be counted - based on the Jan. 29 primary results or some other formula - is yet to be decided.
``Seat the Florida delegation, that's the upshot,'' Hastings said. ``They can do it any way they want to.''
As for Michigan, a proposal has been close, but it is being blocked by Clinton:
Clinton campaign spokesman Isaac Baker said Thursday the campaign won't support any proposal that gives Clinton fewer delegates than she earned by winning the primary. The New York senator trails Obama in the race for the nomination by about 150 delegates, and is seeking to close the gap with delegates from Florida and Michigan.
"This proposal does not honor the 600,000 votes that were cast in Michigan's January primary. Those votes must be counted," Baker said.
Michigan Democratic Party spokeswoman Elizabeth Kerr said Baker's assertion that the 69-59 split doesn't take the primary results into account is incorrect.
The upshot of all of this is that talk of 2025 delegates being the number needed for the nomination is incorrect. Both sides are now agreeing that FL and MI will be seated prior to the convention. Whether it will be the full 2209, or somewhere in-between, isn't yet clear.
Dan Balz has a good read on the scenarios left for Clinton.
Clinton will continue on in the remaining states, trying to limit her own super delegates from flipping to Obama, and keeping the remaining ones from choosing. She will focus on gaining as many possible pledged-delegates in the remaining states, and in the MI and FL deals. It'd be best for all concerned, to wrap up FL and MI on the 31st of May, but whether that's doable is in the details.
Bowers has a look at what the delegate spread could be with the above MI proposal and FL being seated, and Obama ends with about a 100 seat pledged-delegate advantage. There are an additional 217 delegates that will also be chosen by early June, leaving only the remaining 300 super-delegates to choose.
Todd's right, that there's no reason for Clinton to believe that the SD's would then flock to her, even in the best case scenario that she closes with 3, or even 4, victories and a lead in the popular vote. What's more likely, at that point, after having gained as many pledged delegates as possible, is for Clinton to stand down and wait. At some point soon thereafter, enough SD's are likely going to give Obama a majority of whatever the final number winds up being.
That's assuming nothing between now and then drastically changes the landscape. Or even after, all the way to the convention. And that's why Clinton will wait, with as many pledged delegates as possible, because everyone knows that the SD's like Joe Andrews can change their mind, all the way up to the convention.
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