The 'electability' grunge match

Ed Koch says what he thinks Clinton can't say:

"I believe Obama probably will win [the Democratic nomination], although in politics you never ever can count anybody out," said former New York Mayor Ed Koch. "I think Hillary is doing a magnificent job and is a great candidate and if anybody can pull it out, she can. But my honest opinion is, it probably won't happen. And that he will be the candidate and that he will lose." Koch's argument, while never voiced in public by Clinton, is thought to reflect the opinion of the senator and her key aides.

Well, Clinton's isn't saying that, but is saying she is 'more' and 'broader':
"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

"There's a pattern emerging here," she said.

The Obama campaign responds:

...that in Indiana, Obama split working-class voters with Clinton and won a higher percentage of white voters than in Ohio in March. He said Obama will be the strongest nominee because he appeals "to Americans from every background and all walks of life. These statements from Sen. Clinton are not true and frankly disappointing."


Clinton rejected any idea that her emphasis on white voters could be interpreted as racially divisive. "These are the people you have to win if you're a Democrat in sufficient numbers to actually win the election. Everybody knows that."


Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said Clinton's comment was a "poorly worded" variation on the way analysts have been "slicing and dicing the vote in racial terms."

Political correctness on speaking about demographics has arrived, so are accusations of racism for speaking about voters in terms of their voting habits by skin color that far behind? I hope not, we can talk about a division without promoting it to happen.


Also, from RonK:

... Barack Obama is the Presumptive Nominee. "The Math" still dictates that superdelegates will decide the nomination. Whatever superdelegates decide next week, or next month, the decisions that stick are the decisions they make in Denver, in August.

HIllary can campaign like hell, or she can go into quiet mode, or she can even try to pull the Unity bandwagon out of the ditch. None of that matters.

All that matters now is how Obama fares in the next three and a half months as "McCain versus Obama" plays out in the national media spotlight.

That sounds about right.



Display:


Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 2)

Did you mean Grudge match?  I can't figure out the title if you indeed meant Grunge... were you listening to Nirvana or Pearl Jam while writing this ;-)


by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:51:06 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Yea, I was thinking it gets down to the dirty.  I wish, on the music end, but I was actually listening to my little girl call me for playing CandyLand with Fox and the Hound playing in the background....


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:59:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Ah... ok that makes sense.  

What a "Foxy" answer...  Maybe it was the "Copper" standard.  ;-)

Sorry couldn't resist.


by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:06:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Grunge, as in ... (none / 0)

... with the lights out, it's less dangerous
here we are now, entertain us
I feel stupid, and contagious
here we are now, entertain us ...

It all comes down to the malarkey of anarchy, neh?


¡Si, soy PUMA!
by RonK Seattle on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:34:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Confused (2.00 / 3)

Just want to clear something up... let's just take the issue of the racial language out of it since it's a touchy subject. You think it's perfectly acceptable for some Clinton-supporting Democrats to spend the summer publicly sowing doubt about the party's presumptive nominee?

That doesn't make any sense to me, as someone who's interested in having a Democrat win the White House.  Wouldn't it be more constructive to focus on figuring out how to win with the nominee we have rather than waste our time with endless grumbling over the possibility that he or she might lose?


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:13:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused (none / 0)

And sowing doubt in racial terms.

If they keep saying over and over again "whites won't vote for Obama" -- which is what's going on, poorly worded or not -- it's not hard to see this becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In other words, it's not making the case for her message, that will carry working class whites, but making the case that HE, Obama, can't carry working class whites. And those are very different arguments.

And lastly, you can dismiss it as being "politically correct," but poorly worded or not, claiming sole support for "hard working Americans" that is, "white Americans" is a construction far more incendiary than the "bitter comments." Certainly more so than Biden's "articulate" comment.

That may be my opinion, but if she wasn't already in such dire straights, that quote would be driving the news. I don't believe it was all that accidental, because it's the same racially tinged speak that fills up Hillaryis44.com and even here sometimes. There's a fine line, I'm sure, but there's lots of imprecise stomping going around that line.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:52:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Pure racial demographic argument is 1 thing, (2.00 / 1)

equating hard working with white is a whole different matter.


by magster on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:11:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pure racial demographic argument is 1 thing, (none / 0)

You should get out more. There is a subtle 'word warfare' going on here. It's not that the Hillary camp is equating hard working with white, it's that against a Black candidate she is insuating that Blacks are not hardworking, which is a well-established stereotype that has been been around since slavery. Reagan used this tactic back in the 1980's by painting a picture of Black 'welfare queens' gaming the system and living in luxury. The Dems didn't have enough balls to call him on it, which is why he was able to slash so many social programs that poor whites were the beneficiaries of.

Yes, Hillary is playing the race card when she tries calls lower income, blue collar whites 'hardworking' whom she 'identifies' with against a Black opponent. Knowing full and well, that she is from a rich suburb in Chicago, and Obama's mother had to use welfare, and that he had to be raised by his grandparents. Obama graduated with a Law degree from Harvard and then went back to work as a community organizer.  
That's not hardworking?


A PROUD Hopium user!
by xodus1914 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:21:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused (none / 0)

The only thing they're hurting is their legacy. Obama will trounce McSame.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:12:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused (none / 0)

Any evidence of this?


by rickya on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:40:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused (none / 0)

May I?

McCain is Mr. Magoo, both in his disasterous inability to remember important foriegn policy issues, inability to care about economic issues, and inability to remember his past positions on a host of issues, and his inability to seperate himself from the least popular National leader since Vice President Babyeater O'Atheist.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:46:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused (none / 0)

In fact, McCain is SO BAD that "both" constitutes FOUR actual items. That bad a candidate.

That Fark photo of the squirrell with large testes would defeat McCain as a write-in third party candidate.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:48:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

ed koch (none / 0)

has become a one issue (aipac) neo-con.

i would bet his vote goes for mccain in nov. regardless of who is running against him.


by citizendave on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:53:23 AM EST

Re: ed koch (none / 0)

Did he vote for Bush against Kerry?


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:57:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

he has made (none / 0)

numerous public statements in support of bush...iraq...etc.

i would suspect he did vote for bush over kerry though he might not cop to it.


by citizendave on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:00:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

not only did he (none / 0)

vote for bush

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/articl e.asp?ARTICLE_ID=40088

but he basically called kerry a pussy as well.


by citizendave on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:08:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not only did he (none / 0)

Koch also voted for Reagan - some Democrat.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:09:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not only did he (none / 0)

Koch has no more credibility talking about Democratic politics than Rove or Limbaugh.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:46:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You should be embarrased for even asking. (none / 0)


by hania on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:33:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (none / 0)

he endorsed Bush...even spoke at the Republican Convention.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:02:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (none / 0)

Now Ed Koch is not a democrat.  I think we need someone to write a memo to tell us all who is or is not a real democrat.  I seem to hear all the time that HRC and her supporters are not real democrats.  

david


by giusd on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:00:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (2.00 / 1)

um

see response above and maybe read the article.

though you can decide for yourself which party koch has chosen to align himself with; i think its pretty clear.

any other questions?


by citizendave on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:10:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (2.00 / 1)

Nope you heard wrong...

It was the Hillary supporters who say they WON'T vote for Obama and will vote for McCain that are not real Democrats.  There is nothing wrong with Normal Hillary supporters who fought hard for her, but now will focus on getting the Party back the WH AND increase our majorities.


by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:13:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (none / 0)

Really did i miss the two front page threads on dkos saying HRC is not longer a democrat?

david


by giusd on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:29:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (2.00 / 2)

When did the DailyKos get to be the arbiter of who is a Democrat.


by Adept2u on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:15:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I am sick to death (2.00 / 2)

of HRC supporters here using what the lunatics over at Dkos do as an excuse to bag on Obama supporters who hang out here at MYDD.


Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America
by JDF on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:25:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (none / 0)

Hillary supporters who are not supporting Obama in the GE are patriots.  They recognize that incompetence - whether coming from the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is not good for the country.

Obama is just another Bush - Democrat version.


by rickya on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:44:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (2.00 / 1)

Ed Koch aligns himself with the GOP on just about every non-Hillary news story. I don't doubt he'll be campaigning for McCain.

Hillary would do better with another surrogate.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:54:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Koch (2.00 / 1)

only said he was for Hillary "in the primary" and reserved the right to change in the general, which led me to believe he'd endorse McCain in the end over anyone.

The real reason he came back to the Democratic Party this year was his pure blatant hatred for Giuliani, whom he thought would be the GOP nominee. He loves McCain.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:03:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Ed Koch.... The guys a joke.  

I'd also say that Any New York "politician" is going to have little credence in this, just as any CHicago politiician is going to have little credence.  Both are biased and are NOT acting in the parties best interests.  

At the least though, you'd think it would be someone with prominence... not the woman who was part of one of the worst electoral defeats in history nor a man who is ridiculed in pop culture as the "asexual" mayor.


by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:55:25 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

You lost me on "... not the woman who was part of one of the worst electoral defeats in history ..." To whom are you referring?


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:23:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

I'd assume the 1994 Conogressional elections, where the Democratic massacre was widely blamed on Hillary Clinton's handling of health care policy.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:49:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

So far, Obama vs. McCain has McCain winning. The media suddenly lets McCain win the narrative every time this happens. There's no surprise in this to me.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:57:46 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Um no not really.


by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:14:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Please elaborate.


by rickya on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:45:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Gallup says different. (2.00 / 1)

but it fits some people's apocalyptic narrative.  When Hillary takes her final bow before an empty hall, we'll get about the business of crushing McCain, and we shall do it brutally efficient fashion, backed by huge amounts of money and the strongest candidate we've had in decades.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:17:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says different. (none / 0)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107110/Obamas -Support-Similar-Kerrys-2004.aspx

Most recent Gallup: Obama loses. He starts behind Kerry or the same as Kerry in almost every demograhic group.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:00:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is silly and meaningless (none / 0)

You keep comparing (Gallup is guilty here too) apples with oranges. The May numbers have nothing to do with November numbers. Show me any evidence of predictability of these polls. There is none.


by hania on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:04:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is silly and meaningless (none / 0)

The point is that he starts out behind Kerry in demographics. He hasn't shown an ability to improve his demographics in the democratic primary so it's unlikely that he'll do it in the general election with the GOP attacking him.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:17:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is silly and meaningless (2.00 / 1)

Uhm, the demographics improved from Ohio --> Pennsylvania --> Indiana.

Where have you been?


by Yalin on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:24:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is silly and meaningless (none / 0)

LOL! Funny you don't mention WI because they have all declined since then.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:33:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is silly and meaningless (none / 0)

1) You're talking completely different states and demographics.

2) Want to discuss Hillary's problem with black voters? No way she gets the presidency without at least 85-90% support.

And her support has declined since Iowa. Do you REALLY want to go there?

You're just making inane arguments.


by Yalin on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:33:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is silly and meaningless (none / 0)

You don't get it, do you? The Kerry-Bush numbers are from the fucking election in November 2004. They are NOT comparable to the May Obama-McCain numbers. The other element you people totally ignore is the reliability of these exit polls. What are the sample sizes and what are the confidence intervals? No idea. You just keep repeating the numbers as if they represent the holy grail. Mercy!
   
by hania on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:15:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's the link (none / 0)

you were looking for:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107089/Gallup -Daily-Obama-Clinton-Both-Tie-McCain.asp x


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:14:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the link (none / 0)

Nope. I was talking demographics.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:16:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the link (none / 0)

Clearly you are only going to talk about statistics that support your theory... Obama has shown that EVERYWHERE he goes he is improving on previous demographics. I am not going to predict a landslide come November; in fact, I will admit that there is little way of telling from where we are right now what will happen. But to say with absolute certainty that he can't win is stupid and, dare I say, bitter.


Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America
by JDF on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:28:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the link (none / 0)

Actually he hasn't improved. Since Wright, his demographics have worsened for the most part. His high point was WI but has failed to meet that in every primary since then. I know we aren't supposed to talk about his problems. We are supposed to pretend that everything is just somehow going to work out right.

Aren't you the one who said Obama was going to do great in PA and how excited everyone was, even in rural areas about Obama?

Bitter? What is with Obama supporters and their condescending bitter remarks? Calling me bitter isn't going to change facts. Or solve Obama's problems.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:36:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the link (none / 0)

We all know Wright hurt him with demographics, we all know that, but he still came out on top. He still improved from Pennsylvania, which was his low point.

Wright put him back a few months and now he's back on track. Had Wright not happened, who knows, maybe Pennsylvania would've looked a little more like Indiana.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:01:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the link (none / 0)

Shockingly, his demographics will get massively worse as we move to WV, and then suddenly they will turn around when we get to OR. Watch how the election whip saws back and forth, it's a real squeaker out there!

No, actually, his demographics stay about the same, it's just that there are a bunch of demographics that don't get polled in the exit polls. Poblano's multiple regression predicted PA, IN, and NC within a fairly tight margin, based on the earlier races. If Obama's demographics were changing significantly, you couldn't use past performance to predict future results. Likewise if the demographics were changing, he wouldn't be staying pretty much constant in the national polls.


by letterc on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:58:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We don't care how he wins (none / 0)

Or with what demographics.  You don't have that roadmap, and neither do we.  We just know that McCain is a pitiful little old man with PTSD who wants a hundred year war in Iraq.  If (Insert name here)(D) can't beat this pathetic creature, we'd better disband the Democratic party and head out to the desert and cut our throats with a rusty knife.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:32:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not True At All (2.00 / 2)

The averages from Pollster.com and RealClearPolitics have Clinton and Obama both beating McCain, by almost exactly the same margin. And this website's arguably biased electoral vote map only shows a slim  advantage for Hillary. If she narrowly lost Florida or Ohio she would have no possibility of becoming President, whereas Obama has a chance without either of them.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:22:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

Sorry but look no further than the EC on this website. Obama has less ways to win than Clinton.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:53:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (2.00 / 1)

Really? On THIS website? SHOCKED!

And the election is so soon too! No question once it's no longer two-against-one against Obama it'll only get worse for Obama. Hardly any time to turn things around.

That's why Presidents Kerry and Dukakis did so well.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:55:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

Jerome said that he doesn't do those.

Obama has done poorly demographically so far. He doesn't seem to have the ability to turn it around even though he tried in IN and NC.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:59:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

Do you not realize that the counters on this site go strictly by the last poll?  Are you calling out bias in the latest poll? It doesn't matter what site its on.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:14:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

Is a poll accurate simply because it is the most recent?  Polling firm has no bearing?



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:27:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

I'd say the mere existance of it is kind of ridiculous -- and misleading; but I should not have implied they were fixed.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:44:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

fivethirtyeight.com has a much more sophisticated electoral analysis.  Polling and demographics show Obama is the stronger general electoral candidate.  And, that's before all his advantages that do not show up in polls are taken into account.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:54:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ha (none / 0)

The current EV tracker has McCain winning Wisconsin.  Fat chance.  They went a majority for Kerry, and don't even like him as much as they like Obama.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

New Mexico (2.00 / 1)

It also shows Democrats losing New Mexico, which doesn't seem likely to me. There are going to be a lot of resources poured into that state for Udall, and Richardson might even be the Vice Presidential nominee.

Obama could win those two states and lose Florida, Ohio AND Michigan and still win.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:32:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And... (2.00 / 1)

Obama has a realistic shot at Virginia, North Carolina, and even Texas. He could break 340 EVs without Florida and Ohio.

It boggles my mind that some people actually think Hillary would be a stronger candidate.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:37:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And... (none / 0)

He has no shot at those states. Latest polling has him losing VA. He loses NC too. He's not going to carry one state below the mason dixon line and none of the border states either. His chances are entirely dependent on getting a few smaller states though they don't nearly make up for the loss of FL and OH.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:57:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You Are So Laughably Wrong About Everything (none / 0)

As I said before, the EV map on this very site shows that Obama would win with either Michigan or New Mexico. He doesn't even have to get Florida or Ohio, and he certainly doesn't have to win Virginia or North Carolina or Texas, even though he has a much much much more realistic chance of winning those than Clinton does.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:05:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not Michigan (none / 0)

Wisconsin.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:06:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ha (none / 0)

Kerry won WI by 1/2 of a percent. It's entirely possible that Obama would lose it too. I understand that the GOP recently defeated an AA candidate for supreme court by turning him into Willie Horton.

A lot of WI is very red.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:55:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ha (none / 0)

Bush was 10 points up on Kerry in Wisconsin at this point.

Bush was also up in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:05:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ha (none / 0)

"The current EV tracker "

You mean, the "most current poll" as the tracker is based on every most recent poll, nothing more, nothing less.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:14:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

IMHO BO will do much better than HRC in a lot of traditional red states but he will still not do quite well enough to win any of them.  And as Nov 4th get closer the electoral college will look very similar to 2000 and to a lesser extent 2004.  But the fact is BO will not do very well in OH, FL, VA, KY, or WV. He just doesnt appeal to those voters and that is why HRC won so big in those states.

As i have written IMHO BO has to win CO and hold onto every state that Gore won to win in the GE. If he loses any state that Gore won (like NM) he can not get to 270 electoral votes.  And i also think that BO could win the popular vote by 2% and still not win the election because he does do so well in red states.

I understand that BO supporters disagree and the fact is we will see in Nov.  But i also say that BO better win because if he doesnt the members of the tradition democratic party (including the Clinton crowd and supporters) are going to be really angry and asking some hard questions and demanding some real changes.

david


by giusd on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:59:10 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

I guess I missed that time Warp where we went back and somehow HRC won Virginia.  I thought Obama won VA in a crushing victory, but I guess history got changed.


by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:17:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

OK in the nicest way.  Did you really read what i wrote. ""But the fact is BO will not do very well in OH, FL, VA, KY, or WV"? I clearly said in the GE not the primaries.  Could you please read a little closer.  And are you saying you really think BO can win the popular vote in VA.

david


by giusd on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:31:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Absolutely (none / 0)

Obama and Mark Warner can turn Virginia blue.

Look at the last SUSA GE match-up, which had McCain up by 8 points. They showed McCain getting 47% of the youth vote, 54% of the female vote, and 13% of the African-American vote. Does that seem realistic to you?


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:48:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Absolutely (none / 0)

Actually yes. McCain isn't as offensive to AA's as prior GOP nominees. Also, lots of security moms who will vote for McCain over Obama. Youth vote isn't really reliable.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:02:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

After McCain's speech about the Supreme Court (none / 0)

that he did a couple of days ago, I predict that those so called "security moms" will come back into the Democratic fold.

There is no way do they want Roe vs Wade to be overturned as it will be under John McCain.

His speech scared the crap out of me.


by puma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:09:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Don't be on it. Once again you are saying that they'll vote against McCain but aren't really going to vote for Obama. Anyway, how do you even know that they vote based on the supreme court? It seems lots of them don't you know. And Obama hasn't said that he would appoint pro choice judges anyway.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:40:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The fact that (none / 0)

you even think Obama wouldn't put pro-choice judges on the court makes you lose credibility. The guy has one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate and has always been very pro-choice. He's just as pro-choice as Hillary.

and i'm speaking as a "pro-lifer"


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:58:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Mayor Koch got this part right, "although in politics you never ever can count anybody out." If McCain and Obama start to go at it, don't count Obama out.

Ed Koch...I wonder if he'll end up supporting McCain. I hope not. Poor McCain has enough problems already. Too many problems.


McCainuire, The Wrath Of Not Enough Naps.
by catilinus on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:05:45 AM EST

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (2.00 / 2)

Obama's Money Cartel: How Barack Obama Fronted for the Most Vicious Predators on Wall Street

Wednesday, 07 May 2008  
by Pam Martens

The candidate that claims to be the only presidential contender who doesn't take money from lobbyists is in fact the biggest recipient of lobby-related contributions. Barack Obama rakes in millions from law firms serving the interests of Wall Street, including the financial institutions that gave us the subprime lending crisis. Lawyers that work for firms that earn hundreds of millions of dollars for lobbying may technically not be lobbyists, but they share in their colleagues' earnings as influencers of Congress - a legal loophole that allows Obama to claim his hands are clean of lobby loot. "The top contributors to the Obama campaign are the very Wall Street firms whose shady mortgage lenders buried the elderly and the poor and minority under predatory loans."

Read the entire article closely and then answer this question: Can you tell any difference between G.W. Bush and Barack Obama except skin color? You've been bamboozled, hoodwinked!

Barack Obama IS the Corporate Candidate:

http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.p hp?option=com_content&task=view& id=613&Itemid=1


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Harry S Truman
by Tennessean on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:07:20 AM EST

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

Just one question: What is Senator Clinton's policy and practice on fund-raising?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:10:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

A good question.

Because he isn't a DLC member?
And didn't vote for the Iraq invasion?
Didn't back the surge last year?
Didn't jump up and applaud Bush when he said the surge is working during the SOTU speech?
Didn't threaten the nuclear obliteration of Iran?
Didn't vote for cluster bombs?
Didn't vote for Kyl-Lieberman?
Supports normalization for Cuba?
Didn't try to gut ethics reform?
Succeeded in passing ethics reform?

Just maybe.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:27:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

You mean couldn't vote for the AUMF because he wasn't a member of the Senate and his home state wasn't attacked on 911.


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:49:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (2.00 / 1)

Jerrold Nadler didn't vote for the AUMF and not only was his home state was attacked, but also his congressional district.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:07:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

We are not talking about Jerrold Nadler and his vote we are talking about Barak Obama and his claim on how  he would have voted.


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:31:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (2.00 / 1)

but you're talking about how having your state attacked on 9/11 makes a difference on how one votes.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:59:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

I feel obligated to respond to some of your comments, not to say that Hillary bests Barack on some of theses votes or issues but merely to enlighten his stance on some of these points:

"And didn't vote for the Iraq invasion". You can't be more right! In fact, it's impossible for Barack to have voted for the Iraq invasion because he wasn't even in the senate at time. But you already know that and might say that he was opposed to the war from the start anyways. This is probably true, but when asked how he would have voted he responded: "What would I have done? I don't know." Is that the type of strong leadership we can expect from him? Opposing the war in public but not knowing how to vote?

Read this article if you don't believe me:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.ht ml?res=9407E2DF153DF935A15754C0A9629C8B6 3&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=2

"Didn't threaten the nuclear obliteration of Iran?" No he certainly hasn't done that. But let's look at the context for this comment. She would attack Iran with nuclear weapons IF Iran nuclear attacked Israel. Now Israel is our ally (whether you agree with it or not) and we will protect our allies from enemies. Do you know of NATO? Well she might as well have mentioned that she would nuclear attack Iran if it attacked any of the NATO countries. But what would Barack do? Would Barack not protect our allies? Now I hope to god that this will never happen and that there will be no nuclear attacks period, but a president must be ready for anything.

But when, MSNBC asked him what HE would do. He responded by noting to the press that she sounded like a certain republican (alluding to Bush) and didn't outline what he would do in such an event. This to me is attacking Hillary and not answering what he would do. Now I know that the Barack campaign has been avoiding these type of questions saying that he is for a new kind of politics and that today's system is broken but it's a honest question that, at least to me, is a very important one, especially if he is attacking Hillary because of it.

"Didn't back the surge last year" Well this is about Barack: "since taking office in January 2005, he has voted for four separate war appropriations, totaling more than $300 billion." Now this does not not mean that he was supporting the surge you are refering to but he has been backing a number of appropriations that has help make the continuation of the Iraq war very possible.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washin gton/articles/2007/03/20/obamas_record_s hows_caution_nuance_on_iraq/

And go on, ask me about the vote to so called authorize an Iran war, this is similar to the Iraq vote only she has coauthored a bill the will not allow Bush to use it as an authorization for war.


by worlddem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More half truths, spin and evasion. (none / 0)

   We've had enough and to spare.  Time to turn the page and get some honesty into our government.  The problem that Hillary has is with her elastic notion of the truth.  60 percent of the public  say she is untrustworthy, and for well-substantiated reasons.  
   Fortunately, it will all be moot in a week or three.  We can wait.  We've been waitng a hell of a long time.
by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:24:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh no! (none / 0)

People with lots of money support Obama in ethical ways that do not tie him down to doing favors for them!

Whatever will we do?

Jeez, you people will try to make his strengths out to be weaknesses.  How very Rovian of you.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:27:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh no! (none / 0)

And those people with lots of money want to earn more of that money by having the firms they work for succeed. So instead of using a lobbyist to grease palms they do it themselves.


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:51:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sure. (none / 0)

The point is, they're just citizens offering money to political candidates as they're allowed to under finance law.  

Obama will owe them nothing.  Even without them he'd be breaking finance records with over a million small donors.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:00:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh no! Can You Not Read? (1.00 / 2)

Oh, no, indeed.

Read the article, fool. Because clearly you did not do so, or you wouldn't make such an ignorant comment.

Barack Obama is the front man for Wall Street Corporadoes, and he's already paid them back in spades for their support.

What makes you think he won't do it again? He's already done it THREE times that I can think of, and the cost to black consumers as well as white consumers--as outlined in the article--is in the billions of dollars.

For example:

On February 10, 2005, Senator Obama voted in favor of the passage of the Class Action Fairness Act of 2005. Senators Biden, Boxer, Byrd, Clinton, Corzine, Durbin, Feingold, Kerry, Leahy, Reid and 16 other Democrats voted against it. It passed the Senate 72-26 and was signed into law on February 18, 2005.

Here is an excerpt of remarks Senator Obama made on the Senate floor on February 14, 2005, concerning the passage of this legislation:

"Every American deserves their day in court. This bill, while not perfect, gives people that day while still providing the reasonable reforms necessary to safeguard against the most blatant abuses of the system. I also hope that the federal judiciary takes seriously their expanded role in class action litigation, and upholds their responsibility to fairly certify class actions so that they may protect our civil and consumer rights...."

Three days before Senator Obama expressed that fateful yea vote, 14 state attorneys general, including Lisa Madigan of Senator Obama's home state of Illinois, filed a letter with the Senate and House, pleading to stop the passage of this corporate giveaway:

The AGs wrote:

"State attorneys general frequently investigate and bring actions against defendants who have caused harm to our citizens... In some instances, such actions have been brought with the attorney general acting as the class representative for the consumers of the state. We are concerned that certain provisions of S.5 might be misinterpreted to impede the ability of the attorneys general to bring such actions...."

The Senate also received a desperate plea from more than 40 civil rights and labor organizations, including the NAACP, Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, Human Rights Campaign, American Civil Liberties Union, Center for Justice and Democracy, Legal Momentum (formerly NOW Legal Defense and Education Fund), and Alliance for Justice. They wrote as follows:

"Under the [Class Action Fairness Act of 2005], citizens are denied the right to use their own state courts to bring class actions against corporations that violate these state wage and hour and state civil rights laws, even where that corporation has hundreds of employees in that state. Moving these state law cases into federal court will delay and likely deny justice for working men and women and victims of discrimination. The federal courts are already overburdened. Additionally, federal courts are less likely to certify classes or provide relief for violations of state law."

This legislation, which dramatically impaired labor rights, consumer rights and civil rights, involved five years of pressure from 100 corporations, 475 lobbyists, tens of millions of corporate dollars buying influence in our government, and the active participation of the Wall Street firms now funding the Obama campaign.

"The Civil Justice Reform Group, a business alliance comprising general counsels from Fortune 100 firms, was instrumental in drafting the class-action bill," says Public Citizen.

The article names Obama's biggest corporate contributors, including Citigroup and Mayer-Brown, which is the leading business lobby group:

One of the hardest working registered lobbyists to push this corporate giveaway was the law firm Mayer-Brown, hired by the leading business lobby group, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the Chamber of Commerce spent $16 million in just 2003, lobbying the government on various business issues, including class action reform.

According to a 2003 report from Public Citizen, Mayer-Brown's class action lobbyists included "Mark Gitenstein, former chief counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee and a leading architect of the Senate strategy in support of class-action legislation; John Schmitz, who was deputy counsel to President George H.W. Bush; David McIntosh, former Republican congressman from Indiana; and Jeffrey Lewis, who was on the staffs of both Sen. John Breaux (D-La) and Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-La)".

While not on the Center for Responsive Politics list of the top 20 contributors to the Obama presidential campaign, Mayer-Brown's partners and employees are in rarefied company, giving a total of $92,817 through December 31, 2007, to the Obama campaign. (The firm is also defending Merrill Lynch in court against charges of racial discrimination.)

"Obama helped  gut one of the few weapons left to seek justice against giant corporations and their legions of giant law firms."

Why does this matter? Because these corporate Obama donors are the very same people who are thieving from minorities and the elderly in predatory lending practices. And, Barack Obama voted against the cap in lending, even when it was at 30%. Ergo: Wall Street Financial Powerhouses like Citigroup gave Obama big money. He rewarded them by helping them to rip off minorities and the elderly:

According to a comprehensive report from the nonprofit group, United for a Fair Economy, over the past eight years the total loss of wealth for people of color is between $164 billion and $213 billion for subprime loans which is the greatest loss of wealth for people of color in modern history:

"According to federal data, people of color are more than three times more likely to have subprime loans: high-cost loans account for 55 per cent of loans to blacks, but only 17 per cent of loans to whites."      

If there had been equitable distribution of subprime loans, losses for white people would be 44.5 per cent higher and losses for people of color would be about 24 per cent lower.  "This is evidence of systemic prejudice and institutional racism."

And, here's the kicker: Black voters get a black candidate they think will represent their interests. He won't. He has already hurt their interests for the next 500 years by supporting Corporate Financial Donors in a quid pro quo. The current mortgage crisis is the result of these same Corporate Obama Cronies:

Before the current crisis, based on improvements in median household net worth, it would take 594 more years for blacks to achieve parity with whites. The current crisis is likely to stretch this even further.

You'd better realize the ultimate ugly truth about Obama. He isn't interested in representing YOU. He's just a vehicle for others interested in continuing the status quo:

So, how should we react when we learn that the top contributors to the Obama campaign are the very Wall Street firms whose shady mortgage lenders buried the elderly and the poor and minority under predatory loans? How should we react when we learn that on the big donor list is Citigroup, whose former employee at CitiFinancial testified to the Federal Trade Commission that it was standard practice to target people based on race and educational level, with the sales force winning bonuses called  "Rocopoly Money" (like a sick board game), after "blitz" nights of soliciting loans by phone? How should we react when we learn that these very same firms, arm in arm with their corporate lawyers and registered lobbyists, have weakened our ability to fight back with the class-action vehicle?

Should there be any doubt left as to who owns our government? The very same cast of characters making the Obama hit parade of campaign loot are the clever creators of the industry solutions to the wave of foreclosures gripping this nation's poor and middle class, effectively putting the solution in the hands of the robbers. The names of these programs (that have failed to make a dent in the problem) have the same vacuous ring: Hope Now; Project Lifeline.

Vote for Barack. But be fully aware of who you're voting for. Read the full article, stop deluding yourself:  

http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.p hp?option=com_content&task=view& id=613&Itemid=1


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Harry S Truman
by Tennessean on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:33:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

I'll tell you what should really disturb Americans...

Click the link below to see a list of countries that hired lobbyists to push their agenda in Washington.  See who these lobbyists have raised money for? Clinton and McCain!

http://www.centerforinvestigativereporti ng.org/files/flash/webofinfluence.swf
(i found this link on the ABC news website)

Take this country back America!
We dont need fundraisers lobbying for foreign governments.


by Avandi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:35:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

More wingnut drivel. You guys will spew anyone's crap.


by eddieb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:38:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

Thats a great come back.  Erhmm, spew anyones crap?  Please.  The center for investigative reporting is partnered with news agencies like CNN, ABC, Los Angeles Times, MotherJones, The Washington Post, etc etc.

My fellow Americans, we need to take this country back from lobbyist like these!  That is why this independent is going to be voting for Obama in the general.


by Avandi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:08:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"None of that matters." (none / 0)

Uh, Hillary has actually promised to help.

Not sure who Ronk is, but he sounds like a bitter ender:

"Still, Hillary is Hillary. Capable. Unshakable. Ready to take the 3A.M. call -- any day, any time of day -- no matter what."

After her disastrous campaign, I'm not sure what the capable refers to.  If she had run a more competent campaign, she would have won the nomination.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:08:32 AM EST

Re: "None of that matters." (none / 0)

What happens if the call comes at 2:30am or at 4:00am?  What about 11:30am?


by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:19:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "None of that matters." (none / 0)

..and that's why Obama has the nomination? He ran a good campaign?


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:38:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "None of that matters." (none / 0)

Ding ding ding ding ding


Unable to rec or rate Still supporting Obama
by astoria gooner on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:46:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But can we trust her? (none / 0)

She seems gracious, but she is grasping at the last straw, as is obvious by what Garrin said.

This is why she needs to go. We need to unify not divide further.

Can we flip it. How in the hell can Hillary win without black  voters?

When Obama finally has a chance to speak to the people as the nominee, he won't be burdened with this rhetoric of division, especially if McCain picks a black running mate.
 


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:56:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So what matters now (or very soon) is (2.00 / 1)

do we support the Democratic nominee?  Or do we keep slicing & dicing.

The reason the voters are split is that we've had two good candidates.  That'll split things, no surprise.  And with Cinton & Obama running it'll naturally tend to split along gender & racial lines.  That doesn't necessarily equate to large-scale racism or sexism.  

But to say that the split will continue is silly handwringing.  When there's only one Democratic candidate there'll be only one who represents our values & policies.  Anyone who wants a better world more than revenge will support that person.

It'd be nice if Clinton didn't point to the split as evidence that Obama can't get whites, but what else is she going to do right now?


by Garret on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:09:44 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Koch is just saying what most people know to be true. Obama will lose the general election. When your demographics START out worse than Kerry (who lost) then your chances of winning the general election are pretty much zero.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:10:52 AM EST

That makes no sense. (none / 0)

Kerry is proof that what demographics look like in May is meaningless to the end result.  Public opinion changes.

Obama is just getting of a hotly contested primary and it will, yes, take some time to secure Clinton's demographics.  When that happens, and it will, for the most part, Obama will be supremely positioned to take down McCain.

I suggest you start giving strategies to secure the base or cut out your pointless negativity.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:30:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That makes no sense. (none / 0)

The problem is that he is starting from where Kerry left off. He hasn't shown the ability to turn his demographic problems around in the primaries so how do you think he'll be able to do it in the general?

He has even said that he thinks these people are idiots and his campaign has said that they don't want their votes. Good luck winning a general election with only the youth vote, AA vote and creative class vote. You might pull 45% of the vote in a general election with those demographics.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:06:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If everyone who didn't vote for Obama (none / 0)

in the primary doesn't vote for him in the general, then yeah, he loses, but I don't see any good reason why he can't win those voters over. That's what you do after a primary, you win the voters who didn't vote for you over.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:10:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If everyone who didn't vote for Obama (none / 0)

Like I said, he said he doesn't want those voters already. Don't you think the GOP is going to remind them? He can't win them over because he sees them as some kind of sociological focus group not real people. He talks to them like they're aliens. They apparently are beyond his scope of understanding.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:22:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If everyone who didn't vote for Obama (none / 0)

Can you link the quote where Obama says he doesn't want those voters?



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:35:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If everyone who didn't vote for Obama (none / 0)

Remember the comments in SF? Saying they are bitter and cling to their guns and religion is pretty much writing them off.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:42:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh I see (none / 0)

You want to take a drastically mischaracterized answer to a question and turn it into campaign platform.

It's funny that he said that while he was immersed in a primary where he was fighting to get that exact vote.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:54:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He didn't ever say that. (none / 0)

Obama would never say he didn't want entire demographics.

What he's talking about is either Donna Brazille's assertion the other night (...who is an uncommitted superdelegate...) or David Axelrod's explanation that Democrats, when they win, still typically lose the white vote slightly but make up for it with minorities.

Axelrod is talking about historical precident, not their current campaign strategy.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:53:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Their point being (none / 0)

Obama and Hillary would both lose the white vote in the end, even with a united party.

He didn't say Obama wouldn't campaign for them, just that he wouldn't win them, which he won't.

Obama can win the election with massive black turnout and, say, 40% of the white vote. Clinton cannot win the election with depressed black turnout and Kerry's share of the white vote.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:56:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Big difference between Kerry and Obama (none / 0)

Obama can drum up new voters and increase the number of African-American votes that Kerry could not do.


by puma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:10:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Big difference between Kerry and Obama (none / 0)

Kerry maxed out the AA vote in 2004 in the general election. It still wasn't enough. You are never going to win by trying to max out one group. You have to have a wide coalition.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:23:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That makes no sense. (none / 0)

He has even said that he thinks these people are idiots and his campaign has said that they don't want their votes.

Source? I don't think so... I hope this negativity can end soon so that we can remember why we're Democrats. The primary contest is effectively over. Obama will be the Democratic nominee. Now we all need to do what we can to keep McCain out of the White House and away from the Supreme Court.


by ER Doc on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:32:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That makes no sense. (none / 0)

I wish I'd TIVO'd so I could post it on YouTube for the naysayers, but the other night, on CNN, Donna Brazile, who we can safely say is a strong Obama supporter, said that Obama doesn't need blue-collar whites or Latinos to win the general election. She went on to say the campaign was attracting the youth vote and others to their so-called new Democratic coalition, and that they would be enough. What a fantasy.
by zenful6219 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:36:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That makes no sense. (none / 0)

Not the interview I watched. In that interview, Brazile strongly defended the idea of a big tent party.


by tysonpublic on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:49:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That makes no sense. (none / 0)

Apparenlty you missed the comments Obama made at the fundraiser in SF. Axelrod said that blue collar workers don't vote for dems anyway.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:43:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That makes no sense. (none / 0)

They seem to vote for Clinton.
by zenful6219 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:56:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That makes no sense. (none / 0)

You're buying the Fox News narrative on the San Francisco report.
      As Obama and others have clarified repeatedly, working-class folks have become frustrated (and "bitter") about their economic situation, but feel helpless to do anything about it politically, (since the Democrats have conceded the economic ground to the 'Pubs for so many years...) Since they "can't" vote in their economic best interests, they've been voting on other values they hold dear, like the church, and gun issues, which the Republicans have appropriated since the Reagan days.
      Obama admitted to having phrased this poorly inSan Francisco, but this is what he's trying to change. If these folks finally have a chance to vote for someone who will push their economic interests, they can give up supporting the Corporatists who pander to the on the social issues while keeping them down.  
by ER Doc on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:06:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I just don't get it (2.00 / 1)

Over the past two months, Hillary and Obama poll about the same against McCain.  So what is the basis for concluding that she can beat him but he faces some demographic impossibility?  It's just assertions without evidence.


by snaktime on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:11:54 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

"Hard-working white Americans" is an unfortunate phrase.

Do whites who don't support her not work hard?
And are black voters hard-working as well?

Those questions will come up for some.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:12:11 AM EST

vs, lazy blacks who don't work hard? (none / 0)

Is that the implication?

Rank.
 


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:59:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Is she trying to win the nomination...? (none / 0)

or a bet that she can get 0% of the black vote?


by magster on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:14:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

McCain is a walking malapropism generator. I am not that cynical yet that sooner or later someone is going to notice that the hamster wheel in his head is getting squeaky.
I look forward to him putting all that foreign policy experience out there for the voters to see. What's he going to do? Bring Joe Lieberman with him to the debates?
by shermandem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:16:12 AM EST

Nice (none / 0)

"Walking malpropism generator."

Nice one.

Someone should actually make a randomized generator of all the insane stuff he's said.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:32:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Speaking of blue collar white americans. I guess Obama can count them out in Nov and you can thank Donna Brazile and her fat mouth. She released us all on Tuesday night and said the party did not need us to win. John McCain's campiagn said that they will go after that demographic yesterday and  that they can expect to gain about 20% or more. You guys just lost.


by Iceblinkjm on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:16:45 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Not true. Don't misrepresent. She said we should not only rely on blue collar voters. No one said we don't need votes!


by eddieb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:34:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

I've seen the transcript and I saw what she said live. She got her point across loud and clear.  They are squandering a golden opportunity to bring these folks into the fold and keep them and they are blowing it.  We are heading to a pyrrhic victory in the fall without them.


by Iceblinkjm on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:38:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

I've seen the transcript too and she didn't say that.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:11:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Wow, I didn't know that one comment by one supporter was so powerful as to swing an entire election.  Maybe I could try it too.

Everyone who makes under $195,000 a year is hereby compelled to vote for Obama in November!

Let's see if that works.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:36:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

The problem isn't just Brazile. Obama has said the same thing and so has axelrod. It's abudantly clear that Obama and his supporters don't want these votes.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:10:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"you guys?" (none / 0)

As opposed to... who?

Listen, Democrats routinely lose the white vote by a little.  They generally make up for it with huge majorities in minority groups.

Regardless, if you think that one thing said by Donna "Uncommitted Superdelegate to the Stars" Brazille is going to somehow resonate with low-income white voters and turn them specifically against Obama, you're being silly.

The reason McCain is going to go after that demographic is that he's afraid that he is going to lose the white vote: his party hates him and he's only polling 75% in uncontested primaries.  evangelicals and libertarians could not be less pleased with their candidate.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:38:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "you guys?" (2.00 / 1)

But the Clinton people are TRYING SO HARD!

After all, if Hillaryis44 people and Armstrong here AND the NoQuarter people ALL SIMULTANEOUSLY see a random comment by uncommitted superdelegate (not even a public Obama supporter) and vocal Clinton supporter Paul Begala have the worlds wonkiest slapfight ever -- AND THEY ALL misinterpret her comments THE EXACT SAME WAY, and then they ALL post how offended they are by this same misinterpretation and repeat it over and over again despite the ridiculous leaps in logic required to make the case...

... you just want to give Howard Ickes and Peter Daou a big hug for turning potentially reasoned Democrats into "Crazy-painted-conspiracy-theory-van" people. Good job, guys!


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:00:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: from Ronk: (none / 0)


All that matters now is how Obama fares in the next three and a half months as "McCain versus Obama" plays out in the national media spotlight.

The focus should now be on McCain v. Obama bigtime.  See how that plays out. See how Obama fares one-on-one with McCain. (We need Hillary in the wings though in case something goes awry.  Hang in there, Hillary.)


by moevaughn on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:16:49 AM EST

According to Hillary (2.00 / 1)

only white Americans are "hard workers".  Hopefully she was misquoted.

As an African-American, I am hoping she didn't really mean what she said.


by puma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:17:15 AM EST

Next up, West Virginia... (2.00 / 1)

... then Kentucky.

What do you think?


by kraant on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:25:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Next up, West Virginia... (none / 0)

No way she was mis quoted.  This is her STRATEGY she made it clear with her tet-a-tet with the Emperor Palpetine Richard Mellon Scaife.  She wants the Democratic Party to be Republican light.  No thanks Hillsy later for you.


by Adept2u on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:20:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Definitely not misquoted... (none / 0)

We have audio.

She said it.


by kraant on Thu May 08, 2008 at 06:37:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Misquoted? Doubtful (2.00 / 1)

Although I have to say, her campaign probably gets more leverage out of Obama supporters accusing them of racism than they it does out of actually using racist arguments.

She's irrelevant at this point, I think we should maybe just let it go. She's only damaging her own legacy.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:27:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Misquoted? Doubtful (none / 0)

So irrelevant that Obama has won the nomination. :)


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:55:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: According to Hillary (2.00 / 1)

I just think she is so freaked over the idea of actually losing she just plain doesn't see how hurtful to Blacks her words are. I truly believe in her heart she is not a racist. She and her Hubby have just gone temporarily insane!


by eddieb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:27:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not insane (2.00 / 1)

These are Clintons.  Their ability to parse is legendary.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:39:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: According to Hillary (none / 0)

And when will BO and his supporters see how hurtful to women their words are?

david


by giusd on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:41:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: According to Hillary (2.00 / 1)

example


Unable to rec or rate Still supporting Obama
by astoria gooner on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:49:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Which Words? (none / 0)

What has Obama ever said anything to disparage women or suggest that their votes are less important than anyone else's? That's an absurd suggestion.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:50:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Which Words? (none / 0)

It's true. Remember that time that Obama pointed to his success with educated and higher-earning whites as proof that only he has what it takes to get the votes of "intelligent Americans, incredibly successful intelligent Americans, Male Americans" and then went off to campaign in several states of the union where people fondly remember a time of state-sanctioned misogyny and some still actively work againsts Women's sufferage.

Because that's just about the only comparison I can think of.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:06:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If you want to compete like a man (none / 0)

then you have to accept to defeat like a man.

Words do matter.

Hillary will damage her political career if she keeps harping on this whites only voters theme.

This goes against  the very core of democratic principles, whether a man says it or a woman says it. I believe in equal rights for women only, but not for blacks. Even Tubbs/Jones might find this offensive.

Face the consequences of what the implication is behind Hillary's words. Mentioning that these words are divisive is not an attack on women. Grow up!


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:06:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: According to Hillary (none / 0)

Did Obama say that they are relying on men? Or AA? Or people under 65? And that those are the hard-working Americans?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:08:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What has Obama said (none / 0)

that is hurtful to women?  Cite specific examples, or you're just a concern troll.


by JJE on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:16:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: According to Hillary (none / 0)

She meant exactly what she said. If she wasn't unelectable before she is now.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:18:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

this is all just ridiculous. (none / 0)

When you have lost the contest, you have lost the contest and have to accept who is going to win.

If Hillary thinks that Barack is not acceptable, she should just decide to run as an independent in the general election.  Otherwise, she needs to "suck it up" and deal with the fact that someone else is going to win the nomination- even if she thinks this person will lose.

At this point, if she wants to stay in the race, that is fine.  Mike Huckabee did the same thing.  But, to continually degrade and insult who is going to be the democratic nominee is just selfish and destructive to the chances of Barack becoming our next president.


d
by d on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:18:38 AM EST

Re: this is all just ridiculous. (none / 0)

But nobody has lost, or won, the nomination yet.


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:56:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

I sadley can no longer contain my frustration. I am constantly having flash backs to Bushbag's refusal to accept reality and begin removing troops from Iraq and instead esclated the war. I am a wheelchair bound Disabled Vietnam war vet. I detest this war more that one can imagine. I have been plagued by nightmares and flashbacks ever since bushbag and his fellow coward Cheenie started it. Now to witness Hillary's refusal to face reality and the math is swo simular to Bushbags antics. I keep expecting to hear her say she will "Begin to SURGE" any minute now. As she has steadily marched toward the bottom she seem to be morphing in to the man she wants to replacet! I love her and her husband but I hate what her obsession and inabilitty to accept defeat has turned her into.


by eddieb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:22:37 AM EST

Don't let it bother you. (2.00 / 1)

Clinton is from the old school.  It's hard for her to believe that the new ways can work.

She is also a Clinton.  They're not used to losing... I think it's happened only once or twice in thirty years.  There's a substantial psychological factor in this, I think.

Just... let it go for now.  Things would have to change drastically for her to become the nominee, and I don't forsee that happening.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:45:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't let it bother you. (none / 0)

Two of the elections that Bill Clinton didn't lose was to the White House. How many presidential terms have Obama endorsers Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, or McGovern won?


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:00:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bill Clinton never got a majority (none / 0)

Who would be McCain's Ross Perot if Hillary was the candidate?  Bob Barr?


by JJE on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:15:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bill Clinton never got a majority (none / 0)

You have to resort to republican talking points to excuse Bush the Smarter's loss to Bill Clinton? Funny thing about that I read where Ross Perot drew an equal number of votes from both parties.
But then this isnt's the first time an Obama supporter has used republican talking points to go after Hillary.
by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:40:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

it's a fact, not a talking point (none / 0)

sorry if it reflects poorly on your hero.  Whatever you read somewhere, there is no disputing that Bill Clinton never won more than 50% of the vote in either election.  The wine of denial is flowing freely in HillaryLand these days.


by JJE on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:00:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh come on. (none / 0)

You're being silly and you know it.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:34:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton's casual equivalence (2.00 / 1)

Criticism of Clinton's casual equivalence of "hard-working" and "white americans" can't be dismissed as "political correctness."

Of course, Lester Maddox insisted he wasn't racist too.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn 4158/is_20030626/ai_n12698178


by AdrianLesher on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:27:13 AM EST

Perhaps it is time for Jerome to try to unite (2.00 / 1)

the Democratic party on his website.

Instead of talking about how Obama has problems with the white working class voters, perhaps the discussion should be on how can Obama reach these voters.

Some suggestions:

1. Put Hillary on the ticket.

2. Choose a running mate if it isn't Hillary that could help draw those voters.

3. Unite with the Edwards part of the Democratic wing.  Edwards' campaign manager just endorsed Obama.  He will help with unions.  I have a feeling that Edwards will be Obama's Attorney General.  Perhaps Obama will announce his cabinet at the convention.  His cabinet nominees could help unite the party.

4. Improve Obama's language on reaching these voters.  Before it was Edwards who reached these voters.  Then after Edwards dropped out, Hillary morphed into this "fighter for the people" and she began reaching these folks.  Perhaps Obama has to make a transformation.


by puma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:27:53 AM EST

In order to help Obama (none / 0)

you have to WANT to help Obama.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:14:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why would you not? (none / 0)

What purpose would not wanting to take back the Office of the President of the United States of America serve?

Or, more importantly, whose purpose?


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:35:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why would you not? (none / 0)

I'm supporting Obama...i'm talking about all those around here who are keeping up with the "he can't win, we've lost" attitude.

Obama is almost certaintly going to be the nominee. Clinton supporters can either A.) throw in the towel and go hide in a cave for four years or B.) at least TRY and help out the Democratic nominee win over the votes he needs.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:50:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Perhaps it is time for Jerome to try to unite (none / 0)

Obama has burned his bridges with these voters already. I don't think he'll get them. He simply is too out of touch to relate to them. He does need to make a transformation but I don't think he can do it. He's spent too much time already being about a movement and not about issues that the working class can relate to.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:27:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Silly (none / 0)

You have no evidence to support this assertion.  Obama has made significant headway in every demographic since the start of the campaign; that's one of the reasons he's been able to win and mantain that win.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:36:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Silly (none / 0)

No, his high point in demographics was in WI. He's done worse in every demographic since then except for AA's and upper income whites. He couldn't even break 40% of the white vote in IN where 25% of the voters are in the Chicago media market.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:46:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Almost meaningless (none / 0)

Remember, primary.  "Hardworking" white Democrats might prefer Clinton, but the majority of those who are voting in the Democratic primaries will still be voting for the Democrat in the fall.

The general is a whole 'nuther ballgame, and we haven't even seen Obama's strategy for that yet.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:24:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

I find Hillary's statements to be unfortunately worded.  I don't like the way this is being framed.

Frankly, I think the electability argument has been played out at this point and ought to be dropped.  Maybe Barack Obama is utterly unelectable, but you know what, people have heard the argument and they're either going to be swayed or they're not.  Saying it over and over again doesn't help anything.  As far as the remaining superdelegates are concerned, I think they'll be a lot more receptive to the argument if it's made in private.

I think people's tolerance for a continuation of the campaign is directly proportional to the positive nature of said campaign.  Which is to say, even a staunch Clinton supporter like myself is not up for another month of "white people won't vote for Barack Obama."  And you know, if you say it enough, you probably make it a self-fulfilling prophecy, which isn't good for anyone.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:33:53 AM EST

Try some Gallup for some reality-based (none / 0)

reassurance.

Go to this Gallup link and look not only at the main article but the raft of healines down the side: the economy, Iraq, gas prices, Bush disapproval overall.

Now check out this Gallup link. "Obama and Clinton both tie McCain.

But the movement over the last five days has been a 7 point swing for Obama versus McCain, from six down to +1 over McCain.

Where is this being reported?


k/o: politics and local blogs
by kid oakland on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:47:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Try some Gallup for some reality-based (none / 0)

Polls are hardly "reality-based reassurance."  They are an excuse to cherry-pick good news.

I don't suppose you wrote a diary to call everyone's attention to Obama being down 6 points, hmm?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:03:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hard to know where to begin (none / 0)

if you think Bush's disapproval numbers and weakness among Republicans....or Americans concern about the Bush economy and the war in Iraq aren't relevant and real.

Jerome happily posts Gallup tracking polls as do many other bloggers. Nobody I've seen has noted this movement in the Obama vs. McCain numbers the last four days. 7 points is not chopped liver.

Fwiw, there was plenty of coverage of the hit Obama took in the polls post-Wright.


k/o: politics and local blogs
by kid oakland on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:51:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hard to know where to begin (none / 0)

The polls go up and down constantly.  Dems like Dukakis who had no chance had plenty of good polls.  Don't try to argue that a short-term 7-point surge proves that Obama is electable, unless you would concede that a short-term 7-point drop proves that he's unelectable.

Look, I don't want to argue that Obama is unelectable.  (1) I don't believe it, (2) no one knows with certainty, (3) it's too late in the day to have that discussion anyway.  But I think there are concerns, concerns not based on some pollster's bottom line, but based on the sorts of conversations with voters I have every day.

The people I talk to are people who by all rights ought to be in our column in November, people who understand the harm the Republicans have done to the country, people who would be happy to vote for Hillary or "generic Democrat."  And I keep hearing very negative statements about Obama, based on stuff like Wright and "bittergate," the sort of crap that we've dismissed as irrelevant in our little blog echo chamber.  People who used to have very positive things to say about Obama are very down on him.  This troubles me.  I don't want to deliver speeches about how "if people vote based on crap like that, they deserve what they get," what I want is to WIN.

The reason I have trouble being a believer is that it seems like Obama is going to lose some pretty big chunks of the Democratic base.  Heck, my grandfather who has voted for every Dem since FDR seems to loathe Obama.  You can write all the eloquent diaries you want about Obama's "new coalition," but as big of a fan I am of all the new folks Obama is bringing into the party, I'm simply not comfortable with the sheer volume of the old coalition that seems to be going by the wayside.  And frankly, as much as you're obviously a true believer, I don't think you know with certainty either.  I think there's a lot of faux confidence about the power of the "new coalition" because, frankly, if you support Obama you have no choice but to go with that.

All I can offer is anecdotal evidence, and I accept the limited value that it has.  But it's like I come to the blogs and there's all these articles and polls demonstrating beyond a shadow of a doubt that Obama has gotten past the Wright issue or that he didn't take a serious hit from "bittergate" or whatever, and then I get out there and talk with real people, and the dissonance is amazing.  I think most liberals have a very, very hard time inserting themselves into the thought processes of people who are wired differently.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:27:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You think ppl are going to care... (none / 0)

about some damn Reverend or bittergate statements when they are paying over 4.00 for gas, losing their homes, food prices high as hell, and the Republican laundry list of FAILURES is ENDLESS.

This campaign is about change.  When Hillary is out these numbers will change.  Holding onto numbers 6 months from the GE is crazy.  If that is so true, as Hillary led all 2007 in the polls, she would be making the rounds of congress today, with cameras, with the most delegates, most money, most popular vote.

But, yeah, right those polls did not mean a hill of beans after IOWA.


by tracey webb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:09:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You think ppl are going to care... (none / 0)

Yes, I do think that, because I talk to people.

Sitting around and saying "people won't care about that crap, the real issues are too important" is how liberals lose year after year after year after year after year after year after year.  Will we ever stop?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Neither group can win by itself (2.00 / 1)

Obama can't win without working class whites, Clinton can't win without African Americans.  If we can't unite, McCain wins.  The goal between now and November has to be to unite behind our nominee.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:39:58 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

I don`t buy the arguement that Obama can`t win. He will bring out a gigantic black vote plus bring in lots of new voters. A lot of Hillary`s voters will vote for whoever the democratic nominee is especially if they start thinking about judges.
Also who knows if McCain can hold up on the campaign trail without making some serious mistakes and I think he will have a hard time in a one on one debate thinking on his feet.
by JOEL1954 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:41:24 AM EST

Reality check (2.00 / 1)

Obama took serious flak in the media and this site went berserk when he used the phrase "typical white woman", despite the fact that it was used in context to make a very elegant point about race. There was nothing elegant or high-minded about Clinton's comment here, and to see the front page trying to call criticism of it pc run amok is absurd.

This is exactly the same pattern of behavior we have seen out of Clinton for the entire campaign, and I don't mean racism. If she loses, be it an individual state, a type of contest, or now a demographic, she immediately moves to dismiss them as unimportant and less worthy than the ones she wins.

I truly don't believe that the Clinton's are racist, but now that she has lost the AA vote the AA vote gets to join the long list of "things that don't matter".


"Mom, baseball, apple pie, and a unified Democratic juggernaut."
by Purplepeople on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:43:09 AM EST

Yep Obama did take flack (none / 0)

at this website and the media for "typical white woman".  

I am surprised that Hillary isn't get any flack for her "hard working Americans, white Americans" comment.

I have a feeling that the media will not try to "kick" her when she is down so to speak.


by puma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:52:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's clever isn't it (none / 0)

She can subtly drag Obama through the mud to get more votes in Appalachia, while the media treats with kid gloves. Would the Clinton's do this. Of course they would.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:10:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's clever isn't it (none / 0)

... and blaming Obama's loss in NH on the Bradley effect wasn't dragging Hillary thru the mud?


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:18:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

In point of fact. (none / 0)

That's just false.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson, who brought up the Bradley Effect at HuffPost, is not the Obama campaign. He's an author writing about race and elections who has a book coming out on the topic.

Nobody from Obama's campaign claimed a "Bradley Effect" in New Hampshire. It didn't happen and that wouldn't have made sense.

Of course, that doesn't stop you from making that claim on MyDD.

It's false.


k/o: politics and local blogs
by kid oakland on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:04:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

The super-duper delegates could end this at any time by endorsing Obama. Why haven't they done this if they think this drawn out nomination battle is hurting the party?


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:45:10 AM EST

They want to be careful (2.00 / 1)

Endorsing in a huge bloc will alienate Clinton supporters.  They want the primaries to play out or Clinton to concede.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:48:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They want to be careful (none / 0)

... or it could be they are waiting for whatever other skeletons are in Obama's closet?


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:43:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Skeletons, right. (none / 0)

If you ain't found skeletons by now, they probably ain't gonna appear.  This guy came up in Chicago and has been picked over by the media relentlessly.

Besides, a Clinton supporter is probably the last person that should be talking about skeleton closets.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:07:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Support for Obama has been in decline since voters started finding out who he really is. Just look at the NC results vs. VA nearly 3 months prior. White male support dropped over 40% and white female support dropped 27%. NC and VA have almost identical demographics so what changed was his support base.

Hillary is by far the better candidate. Ed Koch is correct. Obama will lose in November. Half of Hillary's supporters, and that means 25% of the party, will not vote for him. They will either stay home, write in Hillary, or vote for McCain.

Hispanics will not vote for Obama. Looking at the demographics, Obama would likely get:

35% to 38% of the white vote
35% of the Hispanic vote
93% of the black vote

That's a losing proposition.


by Nobama on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:47:55 AM EST

You're welcome to make suggestions (none / 0)

Claiming that Obama will lose without conditonals is completely out of line, however.

Why not be helpful and offer strategies for Obama to get the demographics you're worried about, rather than simply project doom?

You could, you know, change your name to "GoBama!"


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:50:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

He gained in a all those demographics from PA to IN......

(not that any of this slicing and dicing matters)

He still seems to be winning the "voter" demographic.


Unable to rec or rate Still supporting Obama
by astoria gooner on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:51:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

If you want to slice and dice, at least do it fairly.  He doesn't do poorly among "whites".  He does poorly among some groups of whites - particularly whites in Appalachia and whites over 60.

In another primary that's coming up, in Oregon, he's well ahead among whites - just as he beat her among whites in Washington state, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Maryland, as well as a host of smaller states.

When you add it all up to the demographic we call "voters", he's at least as strong as she is, even after Wright.


by TL on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:55:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Stop with the whites already (2.00 / 1)

Kos had an interesting piece yesterday on the silliness of looking at Obama's success with black voters while ignoring key non-race-based stats.  (There are 2 numbers for each category, the first is the total %-age of the vote for that category in the state, the second is the %-age of those votes that Obama won):

                                % of vote  % for Obama
IN: People with college degrees  35       56
NC: People with college degrees  44       57

IN: First time primary voters    19       69        
NC: First time primary voters    22       60

IN: Independents                 23       54
NC: Independents                 19       45*

IN: Liberals                     39       56
NC: Liberals                     42       63

IN: Urban                        33       60
NC: Urban                        27       66

IN: White 17-29 year-olds        12       54
NC: White 17-29 year-olds         8       57

IN: All 17-29 year-olds          17       61
NC: All 17-29 year-olds          14       74

IN: 17-64 year-olds              86       52
NC: 17-64 year-olds              80       60


by MikeyB on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:51:41 AM EST

Larry Sabato's additional comments (2.00 / 1)

Here's the rest of what Sabato had to say in today's USAToday column.

However, he said her primary support doesn't prove she's more electable. Either Democrat will get "the vast majority" of the other's primary election votes in a general election, he said.

If you look at past primary elections, its common for supporters of the losing candidate to state that they won't support the winner. By the time the general election rolls around, most of them do. And note that I said most and not all. There will be people who stay home or vote for someone else. But as Larry Sabato points out, they're not that significant when you look at big picture.

People need to realize that demographic splits in a primary election don't coorelate well with performance in a general election. If Clinton won the nomination, is she only going to get 10-15% of the African American vote? And in a matchup with McCain, is she going to get as big a share of the white male vote as she did in the primaries. The answer to both questions is no.


by kjblair2 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:56:32 AM EST

Obama is smart enough (none / 0)

to reach out to these people Sen. Clinton is talking about - and do it in the right way.  I think all reasonable types will come around -  and as the economy will not magically turn around before November - people will listen if he does it in the right way.  And if the some of the press continues to be in his cheering section - it will be easier for him than it was for for him than either Sens. Gore or Kerry and unfortunately HRC.    


by Xanthe on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:57:44 AM EST

Hillary: Blacks are lazy, aren't 'real' people (2.00 / 1)

Lazy: "working, hard-working Americans, white Americans"

Where does that leave blacks?  Pretty obvious, huh?

Not real: pretty much the whole tenor of that larger quote.  White votes are the votes that count - a candidate that overcomes losing the white vote by doing well among blacks is somehow not winning through 'real' votes.

And this is a woman who wants to represent the Democratic Party as its Presidential candidate.

If this was vaudeville, a hook would've pulled her off the stage by now.  Time to get her out of there.


by RT on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:01:09 AM EST

Ed Koch??? (2.00 / 1)

Glad to see people calling out Ed Koch for what he is. A contrarian crank whose inconsistent and odd opinions haven't mattered for a long time.

You want the opinion of a former NYC mayor, try David Dinkins or Rudy Giuliani.


by wolff109 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:05:21 AM EST

Re: Ed Koch??? (none / 0)

Well, given it was in USA Today, he's got reach today, and its worth discussion.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:22:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

That's a big if, counting on the Old Media not to turn on Obama after Hillary is out of the picture.


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:09:48 AM EST

No one knows presidential elections (2.00 / 1)

better than a ninety year-old ex-mayor.  


by snaktime on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:12:04 AM EST

I'm white, hooray! (2.00 / 1)

I'm so happy to know that I'm not lazy and shiftless.  Thanks Hillary!


by JJE on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:12:06 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Hillary should not be talking about "white voters" at this late stage- it is indeed shameless.  She should blame her lost on blind loyalty- she kept Penn way past overdue- did anybody read ATRIOS who reprinted a story that showed that Penn did not know that delegates were proportionally allocated?-How the hell is Ballston supposed to run a campaign if they do not even know how the delegates are apportioned- imagine running the White House in a similar fashion.


by RAULC on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:17:26 AM EST

Unless Clinton switches to the GOP or (none / 0)

runs as an independent she is now unelectable in the Democratic party.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:19:21 AM EST

Re: Unless Clinton switches to the GOP or (none / 0)

*She is now unelectable even.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:19:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton's words... (none / 0)

are ugly and divisive. She is playing the same sort of linguistic games (linking "hard-working" and "white") that the GOP has perfected over the past 20 years. She knows exactly what she is doing--playing to racial bigotry. Any Democrat worthy of the name should condemn such blatant race baiting.


by rebop on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:21:10 AM EST

Am I the only one who sees the irony in this? (none / 0)

I don't understand how we're expected to believe the electability argument from the same people who hatched the disastrous inevitability campaign. I mean, they couldn't even win a primary in which they had all the advantages and were the assumed nominee coming in. Honestly, is anyone buying this?


by noop on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:21:17 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)


by rebop on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:21:32 AM EST

Face it. It's racist and divisive. (none / 0)

As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, (as opposed to lazy black Americans?) is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college (as opposed to college educated elites?) were supporting me."

And it's sadly what we've come to expect from the Clintons and their ever sorrier campaign.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:24:37 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

"Hard-working white Americans"

Nice.  Let's skip the dog whistle and just ask directly for the support of "real Americans" who don't like the uppity negro who has already won the election.

She makes it really hard to imagine forgiving her.

This follows, however, from the constant use of "white, working-class voters" when most of Obama's black voters are also working-class.  There is no virtue in being white or black; there is great virtue in being a hard working person.  So the hidden implication here -- that "lazy" blacks want Obama and have it in for "hard working" whites (or that the democratic party somehow "needs" people who think that way to win)  --  is as ugly as it gets.  And as it has been since Clinton got desperate, whether or not it has been coming from her surrogates (like Ferraro) or -- as now -- directly from her own mouth.

I don't want to share a party with racists; and I don't care to win if "winning" depends on pandering to racism.  I'm funny that way, but then I still think that's what it means to be "progressive."  

And the weird thing is that I don't think Hillary (unlike Ed Koch or Gerry Ferraro) is a racist, exactly.  Not in her heart.  But that she is willing to play one on TV out of political expediency (just like she was willing to become a warmonger out of political expediency) means she is worse, in some ways, than a racist: she has no principles other than winning at any cost.

No way.  Yuck.


by realcountrymusic on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:25:23 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

I find it funny that Obama supporters scream racism at everything Hillary does but in the end it damages Obama and his campaign even more. And it seems that racism from Rev. Wright was defended everywhere.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:30:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Look over there! (none / 0)

It's REV. WRIGHT!

Still flogging that corpse? Pretty pathetic...


by JoeCoaster on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:54:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

I also believe we shouldn't count Hillary out. She could still pull this off. But, Obama probably will be the nominee.

At some point, very soon, Obama must admit his weakness (at least in private) and reach out to Clinton to help shore up his deficiencies, which are considerable. Otherwise, Democrats will lose their bid for the White House.

by zenful6219 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:27:51 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

He thinks he has no weaknesses. He thinks he's entitled to the WH because of "who he is". He doesn't realize that he's not running for a senate seat in the southside of chicago anymore.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:31:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Huh?

I really think you'd be happier on HillaryIs44.com


by tysonpublic on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:57:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

No, he will be entitled to the nomination when he gets to the winning number and Hillary will not be entitled to it because she will have lost the voters, pledged delegates and super delegates. Obama has continued to advance on his goal with a clear and successful strategy. Hillary continues to fall further behind despite the kitchen sink, phony populism, histrioncs, changes of strategy and persona.

The 'hard working' whites remark may have just been a poor choice of words but she then went on to say we have to earn the white vote. The black vote? They have to vote Democratic - they have no place else to go so don't worry about them or who won by every metric pick the white candidate or lose the white vote.

She is resurrecting the Dixiecrat wing of the party. She has gone from pointing out her gender to making herself the 'white' candidate. She has now made herself radioactive to black voters and without them she wont even win NY state add that to all her baggage which has not yet been aired becuase she is not the front runner - she couldn't get elected dog catcher.

As Hillary likes to point out the super delegates must apply their experience to making an independent decision in the best interests of the party so I hope she finally accepts their decision when it goes against her.


by hankg on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:58:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Ummmm....Obama won the primary. In the real world that earned him a ticket to the GE. That's what "he thinks he's entitled to".

Funny how Hillary loses the contest but still thinks she is entitled to be the nominee. Who is being delusional here?  


by JoeCoaster on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:58:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

what are Obama's weaknesses? (none / 0)

No chief exec time?
No military experience?
Being from a northern, overwhelmingly Dem state?
Not a "White" guy?

It seems to me that HRC is a particularly poor choice.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:40:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

I mean, this is George Wallace territory, my "progressive" friends.


by realcountrymusic on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:28:07 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Of course the slicing and dicing of the electorate is a problem, for the simple reason of internal inconsistency, if nothing else. And the fact is that that inconsistency is ALL ABOUT RACE.

The pundits and the Clinton campaign talk about "white working class" vs. "blacks". Think about it: "white working class" is a description of two things: race and (crudely) socioeconomic status. "Black" is a description solely of race.

If you're white, the pundits blather about soccer moms, security moms, latte drinkers, Prius drivers, evangelicals, etc. But it you're black, you're just black--no subtlety here, folks. Melanin in your skin is all that counts.

Tell me if you ever hear an electorate-carving pundit talking about "black working class" as compared to, say, "black college graduates". I'm waiting....

This is worth a look.


by joeldanwalls on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:28:13 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Gore in 2000
Kerry in 2004
Obama in 2008

All losers.  And which of the vaunted MSM and the liberal blogistadt will be standing on November 5th to take the blame?  Oh, I can imagine the MSM meme right now: "Yeah, Obama lost, but really, Hillary would have done worst!"

Oh yeah?


by krj47 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:29:59 AM EST

What's the winning PowerBall lotto this week? (2.00 / 1)

You obviously have a crystal ball and can see the future.

C'mon, I need the money to pay off my medical bills.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:41:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's the winning PowerBall lotto this week? (none / 0)

Well, Obama really is the black Kerry. He comes off as elitist and aloof. Has the same demographic problems. Using the last several decades of elections, you pretty much can guarantee that someone who sounds like a college professor lecturing his students will lose a general election.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:49:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's the winning PowerBall lotto this week? (none / 0)

No, Hillary is the female Kerry who polled as being more electable the Dean but turned out....not so much.


by JoeCoaster on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:01:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No similarity (2.00 / 1)

Seriously, take your wingnut talking points somewhere else.  

Obama is twice the campaigner than Kerry was and has more eloquence and common sense to boot.  This "elitist" schtick is ridiculous, and the fact that you harp on it seems to indicate that you have no interest in Democrats winning at all, because Clinton would be getting hit with it, too, if she were the frontrunner.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:20:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Those Hillary supporters that will not vote for McCain just need to go away, register as independents or republicans.  They only hurt the party.  They can join the Limbaugh repugs that voted for Clinton!

I am so sick of the media pandering to the votes that will be racially divided no matter what.  Why does not someone come out and just say that the bigots will vote for McCain.  That is what Hillary has been implying for quite awhile, Bill also.  Its a sad day for the Clintons to come down to this dirt.

I used to want the dream ticket-ha, NO MORE, I now think Hillary would not be good for OBAMA.  He should be able to pick who he wants.  Hillary may negotiate for Clark?  or herself?  Time will tell.

I know so many whites that are OBAMA supporters, they are all so called "white working class or blue collar" voters.  That junk they keep throwing out is just racist.

OBAMA will grind Mc Cain into the ground, well, maybe McCain will win AZ, those folks usually fit the bad judgement area!


by lja on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:32:36 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Wisconsin? I know Wisconsin and there is absolutely no way any Democrat will carry that state in the General. But the headlines that are missing the last 2 days are what happened in Gary Indiana with the voting machines, dis-enfranchised voters, the "hand-off" of voting cartridges at the airport? The purging of voters on technicalities since there was no print out of registered voters, any typo caused voters to be turned away. Sounds  exactly like what we heard about Obama's rise in politics, CHICAGO STYLE.
I don't think they'll be able to pull this off country-wide in November and I expect people will be hearing more about Obama's rise in politics in Chicago since Hillary left it alone. Don't expect the Republicans or the corporate media to do so.
by glennmcgahee on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:41:20 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Oh lord.  Now we're accusing fellow Democrats of election fraud?


by RussTC3 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:46:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

You know what's funny? The Obama campaign has been doing just that.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:50:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Dude, what? LOL


by RussTC3 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:11:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Hillary lost the nomination because she doesn't appeal to the majority of voters.  And by majority of voters I don't mean whites, because I refuse to make this about race.

I mean voters aged 17-64.  Obama does well with that age group, but does poorly among voters 65 and over.

Hillary does well among voters aged 65 and older and doesn't fare as well with voters under the age of 65.

That's what's going on here.


by RussTC3 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:42:56 AM EST

George Wallace & Jerome Armstrong (none / 0)

He merely appealed to racial divisions that existed and attempted to increase the racial divisiveness for opportunistic reasons.

HRC has been doing the same thing as George Wallace. Obama's right. HRC isn't racist. But she is exploiting racial divisiveness. And people like Jerome look like they are encouraging people to believe other Americans are too racist to elect a Black POTUS.

What's the implied message in Jerome's argument? The implied message is that Democrats who want to win should vote against Barack Obama? Why? Because he's Black and "White" voters won't elect a Black man.

I'm sure Jerome isn't racist. He's merely asking fellow Democrats to vote against a candidate because he's Black.

Again, I want to stress that I'm sure Jerome is a good person. So he can't be racist. Therefore, telling people to vote against Obama because's he's Black isn't a racist call to action.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:56:29 AM EST

Delegates are irrelevant at this point (1.50 / 2)

Delegates are really irrelevant at this point for determining who the nominee will be. Of course, some superdelegates may make their decision to go with Obama because of his thin lead in the overall pledged delegate count, but because the two, Obama and Clinton, are so close and because Clinton has won most of the major blue state contests, what the Democratic electorate in this nation has essentially said to the superdelegates is this: "Please decide who can beat John McCain."

West Virginia and Kentucky will be blowouts for Clinton to the tune of maybe 70%. Oregon will be close, maybe within 5 points as Washington state was in its primary. Puerto Rico will be big for Clinton. Montana and South Dakota will favor Obama, maybe in the 60% range. So we have a tie, folks. It's in the superdelegates' hands.

I'd like to remind everyone that McCain became the presumptive nominee of his party when he passed a magic threshold for elected delegates which was not in dispute. The magic number for pledged delegates to determine the Democratic nominiee may be in dispute entirely into August, so how could anyone possibly say that Obama is the nominee?


by Zeitgeist9000 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:21:01 PM EST

Re: Delegates are irrelevant at this point (none / 0)

Still in deep denial, I see   

Delegates are all that matter;  you're still trying to change the rules, and that's called cheating in the America I live in

Delusional -- they called Obama supporters that forever, but who's really in an alternate reality?

The media has moved on, the electorate is moving on; Obama will close the gap in the remaining states just because he is inevitable and voters want to vote for a winner, so while he may not win those states (and he's sure to do better than win by 5 in Oregon, or do you know something the rest of us don't?)

Red-faced Bill is on TV whining that the media are suppressing the vote by cheering Obama's victory; he's begging for a 10th inning, but  you don't play the bottom of the 9th, let alone the 10th, when the home team is already ahead after the top of the 9th

Who's really cultist at this point?


by realcountrymusic on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:23:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Automatic delegates (none / 0)

You have all been harping on the fact that the super delegates have to apply independent judgment and give it to the candidate that is more electable. I hope that means when the super delegates pick Obama you will accept their superior experience and judgment and line up behind their choice.

Or was all the 'automatic' delegate hype just more dishonest BS.


by hankg on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:39:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

CLINTON CAN'T GET OUT HER VOTE? (none / 0)

If she can, then why doesn't she have faith in her ability to convince her voters that Obama is a better option than McCain?


Change is coming soon.
by jv on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:28:15 PM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Yeah. I think Ed Koch, who endorsed George W. Bush in 2004, has a lot of credibility here.


Blogging here @ MyDD.com. Twittering @jonathanhsinger.
by Jonathan Singer on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:38:49 PM EST

Does the Dem EVER win the white vote? (none / 0)

Question:  I'd like someone to tell us, for comparative purposes, the last time that a Democratic presidential candidate won the white vote?

Answer:  It doesn't happen.  If it did, then the Democrat would win the election by 13 points once the Black vote was added in.  The fact is that Democratic presidential candidates ALWAYS lose the white vote, and then make up the difference among Blacks.


by Manic Lawyer on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:35:19 PM EST


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