The 'electability' grunge match

Ed Koch says what he thinks Clinton can't say:

"I believe Obama probably will win [the Democratic nomination], although in politics you never ever can count anybody out," said former New York Mayor Ed Koch. "I think Hillary is doing a magnificent job and is a great candidate and if anybody can pull it out, she can. But my honest opinion is, it probably won't happen. And that he will be the candidate and that he will lose." Koch's argument, while never voiced in public by Clinton, is thought to reflect the opinion of the senator and her key aides.

Well, Clinton's isn't saying that, but is saying she is 'more' and 'broader':
"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

"There's a pattern emerging here," she said.

The Obama campaign responds:

...that in Indiana, Obama split working-class voters with Clinton and won a higher percentage of white voters than in Ohio in March. He said Obama will be the strongest nominee because he appeals "to Americans from every background and all walks of life. These statements from Sen. Clinton are not true and frankly disappointing."


Clinton rejected any idea that her emphasis on white voters could be interpreted as racially divisive. "These are the people you have to win if you're a Democrat in sufficient numbers to actually win the election. Everybody knows that."


Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said Clinton's comment was a "poorly worded" variation on the way analysts have been "slicing and dicing the vote in racial terms."

Political correctness on speaking about demographics has arrived, so are accusations of racism for speaking about voters in terms of their voting habits by skin color that far behind? I hope not, we can talk about a division without promoting it to happen.


Also, from RonK:

... Barack Obama is the Presumptive Nominee. "The Math" still dictates that superdelegates will decide the nomination. Whatever superdelegates decide next week, or next month, the decisions that stick are the decisions they make in Denver, in August.

HIllary can campaign like hell, or she can go into quiet mode, or she can even try to pull the Unity bandwagon out of the ditch. None of that matters.

All that matters now is how Obama fares in the next three and a half months as "McCain versus Obama" plays out in the national media spotlight.

That sounds about right.



Display:


Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 2)

Did you mean Grudge match?  I can't figure out the title if you indeed meant Grunge... were you listening to Nirvana or Pearl Jam while writing this ;-)


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:51:06 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Yea, I was thinking it gets down to the dirty.  I wish, on the music end, but I was actually listening to my little girl call me for playing CandyLand with Fox and the Hound playing in the background....


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:59:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Ah... ok that makes sense.  

What a "Foxy" answer...  Maybe it was the "Copper" standard.  ;-)

Sorry couldn't resist.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:06:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Grunge, as in ... (none / 0)

... with the lights out, it's less dangerous
here we are now, entertain us
I feel stupid, and contagious
here we are now, entertain us ...

It all comes down to the malarkey of anarchy, neh?


¡Si, soy PUMA!
by RonK Seattle on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:34:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Confused (2.00 / 3)

Just want to clear something up... let's just take the issue of the racial language out of it since it's a touchy subject. You think it's perfectly acceptable for some Clinton-supporting Democrats to spend the summer publicly sowing doubt about the party's presumptive nominee?

That doesn't make any sense to me, as someone who's interested in having a Democrat win the White House.  Wouldn't it be more constructive to focus on figuring out how to win with the nominee we have rather than waste our time with endless grumbling over the possibility that he or she might lose?


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:13:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused (none / 0)

And sowing doubt in racial terms.

If they keep saying over and over again "whites won't vote for Obama" -- which is what's going on, poorly worded or not -- it's not hard to see this becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In other words, it's not making the case for her message, that will carry working class whites, but making the case that HE, Obama, can't carry working class whites. And those are very different arguments.

And lastly, you can dismiss it as being "politically correct," but poorly worded or not, claiming sole support for "hard working Americans" that is, "white Americans" is a construction far more incendiary than the "bitter comments." Certainly more so than Biden's "articulate" comment.

That may be my opinion, but if she wasn't already in such dire straights, that quote would be driving the news. I don't believe it was all that accidental, because it's the same racially tinged speak that fills up Hillaryis44.com and even here sometimes. There's a fine line, I'm sure, but there's lots of imprecise stomping going around that line.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:52:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Pure racial demographic argument is 1 thing, (2.00 / 1)

equating hard working with white is a whole different matter.


by magster on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:11:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pure racial demographic argument is 1 thing, (none / 0)

You should get out more. There is a subtle 'word warfare' going on here. It's not that the Hillary camp is equating hard working with white, it's that against a Black candidate she is insuating that Blacks are not hardworking, which is a well-established stereotype that has been been around since slavery. Reagan used this tactic back in the 1980's by painting a picture of Black 'welfare queens' gaming the system and living in luxury. The Dems didn't have enough balls to call him on it, which is why he was able to slash so many social programs that poor whites were the beneficiaries of.

Yes, Hillary is playing the race card when she tries calls lower income, blue collar whites 'hardworking' whom she 'identifies' with against a Black opponent. Knowing full and well, that she is from a rich suburb in Chicago, and Obama's mother had to use welfare, and that he had to be raised by his grandparents. Obama graduated with a Law degree from Harvard and then went back to work as a community organizer.  
That's not hardworking?


A PROUD Hopium user!
by xodus1914 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:21:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused (none / 0)

The only thing they're hurting is their legacy. Obama will trounce McSame.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:12:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused (none / 0)

Any evidence of this?


by rickya on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:40:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused (none / 0)

May I?

McCain is Mr. Magoo, both in his disasterous inability to remember important foriegn policy issues, inability to care about economic issues, and inability to remember his past positions on a host of issues, and his inability to seperate himself from the least popular National leader since Vice President Babyeater O'Atheist.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:46:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confused (none / 0)

In fact, McCain is SO BAD that "both" constitutes FOUR actual items. That bad a candidate.

That Fark photo of the squirrell with large testes would defeat McCain as a write-in third party candidate.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:48:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

ed koch (none / 0)

has become a one issue (aipac) neo-con.

i would bet his vote goes for mccain in nov. regardless of who is running against him.


by citizendave on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:53:23 AM EST

Re: ed koch (none / 0)

Did he vote for Bush against Kerry?


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:57:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

he has made (none / 0)

numerous public statements in support of bush...iraq...etc.

i would suspect he did vote for bush over kerry though he might not cop to it.


by citizendave on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:00:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

not only did he (none / 0)

vote for bush

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/articl e.asp?ARTICLE_ID=40088

but he basically called kerry a pussy as well.


by citizendave on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:08:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not only did he (none / 0)

Koch also voted for Reagan - some Democrat.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:09:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not only did he (none / 0)

Koch has no more credibility talking about Democratic politics than Rove or Limbaugh.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:46:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You should be embarrased for even asking. (none / 0)


by hania on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:33:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (none / 0)

he endorsed Bush...even spoke at the Republican Convention.


The Democratic Party doesn't live or die with the Clintons
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:02:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (none / 0)

Now Ed Koch is not a democrat.  I think we need someone to write a memo to tell us all who is or is not a real democrat.  I seem to hear all the time that HRC and her supporters are not real democrats.  

david


by giusd on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:00:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (2.00 / 1)

um

see response above and maybe read the article.

though you can decide for yourself which party koch has chosen to align himself with; i think its pretty clear.

any other questions?


by citizendave on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:10:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (2.00 / 1)

Nope you heard wrong...

It was the Hillary supporters who say they WON'T vote for Obama and will vote for McCain that are not real Democrats.  There is nothing wrong with Normal Hillary supporters who fought hard for her, but now will focus on getting the Party back the WH AND increase our majorities.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:13:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (none / 0)

Really did i miss the two front page threads on dkos saying HRC is not longer a democrat?

david


by giusd on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:29:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (2.00 / 2)

When did the DailyKos get to be the arbiter of who is a Democrat.


by Adept2u on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:15:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I am sick to death (2.00 / 2)

of HRC supporters here using what the lunatics over at Dkos do as an excuse to bag on Obama supporters who hang out here at MYDD.


I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.
by JDF on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:25:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (none / 0)

Hillary supporters who are not supporting Obama in the GE are patriots.  They recognize that incompetence - whether coming from the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is not good for the country.

Obama is just another Bush - Democrat version.


by rickya on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:44:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ed koch (2.00 / 1)

Ed Koch aligns himself with the GOP on just about every non-Hillary news story. I don't doubt he'll be campaigning for McCain.

Hillary would do better with another surrogate.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:54:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Koch (2.00 / 1)

only said he was for Hillary "in the primary" and reserved the right to change in the general, which led me to believe he'd endorse McCain in the end over anyone.

The real reason he came back to the Democratic Party this year was his pure blatant hatred for Giuliani, whom he thought would be the GOP nominee. He loves McCain.


The Democratic Party doesn't live or die with the Clintons
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:03:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Ed Koch.... The guys a joke.  

I'd also say that Any New York "politician" is going to have little credence in this, just as any CHicago politiician is going to have little credence.  Both are biased and are NOT acting in the parties best interests.  

At the least though, you'd think it would be someone with prominence... not the woman who was part of one of the worst electoral defeats in history nor a man who is ridiculed in pop culture as the "asexual" mayor.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:55:25 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

You lost me on "... not the woman who was part of one of the worst electoral defeats in history ..." To whom are you referring?


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:23:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

I'd assume the 1994 Conogressional elections, where the Democratic massacre was widely blamed on Hillary Clinton's handling of health care policy.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:49:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

So far, Obama vs. McCain has McCain winning. The media suddenly lets McCain win the narrative every time this happens. There's no surprise in this to me.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:57:46 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Um no not really.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:14:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Please elaborate.


by rickya on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:45:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Gallup says different. (2.00 / 1)

but it fits some people's apocalyptic narrative.  When Hillary takes her final bow before an empty hall, we'll get about the business of crushing McCain, and we shall do it brutally efficient fashion, backed by huge amounts of money and the strongest candidate we've had in decades.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:17:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup says different. (none / 0)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107110/Obamas -Support-Similar-Kerrys-2004.aspx

Most recent Gallup: Obama loses. He starts behind Kerry or the same as Kerry in almost every demograhic group.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:00:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is silly and meaningless (none / 0)

You keep comparing (Gallup is guilty here too) apples with oranges. The May numbers have nothing to do with November numbers. Show me any evidence of predictability of these polls. There is none.


by hania on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:04:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is silly and meaningless (none / 0)

The point is that he starts out behind Kerry in demographics. He hasn't shown an ability to improve his demographics in the democratic primary so it's unlikely that he'll do it in the general election with the GOP attacking him.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:17:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is silly and meaningless (2.00 / 1)

Uhm, the demographics improved from Ohio --> Pennsylvania --> Indiana.

Where have you been?


by Yalin on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:24:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is silly and meaningless (none / 0)

LOL! Funny you don't mention WI because they have all declined since then.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:33:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is silly and meaningless (none / 0)

1) You're talking completely different states and demographics.

2) Want to discuss Hillary's problem with black voters? No way she gets the presidency without at least 85-90% support.

And her support has declined since Iowa. Do you REALLY want to go there?

You're just making inane arguments.


by Yalin on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:33:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is silly and meaningless (none / 0)

You don't get it, do you? The Kerry-Bush numbers are from the fucking election in November 2004. They are NOT comparable to the May Obama-McCain numbers. The other element you people totally ignore is the reliability of these exit polls. What are the sample sizes and what are the confidence intervals? No idea. You just keep repeating the numbers as if they represent the holy grail. Mercy!
   
by hania on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:15:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's the link (none / 0)

you were looking for:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107089/Gallup -Daily-Obama-Clinton-Both-Tie-McCain.asp x


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:14:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the link (none / 0)

Nope. I was talking demographics.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:16:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the link (none / 0)

Clearly you are only going to talk about statistics that support your theory... Obama has shown that EVERYWHERE he goes he is improving on previous demographics. I am not going to predict a landslide come November; in fact, I will admit that there is little way of telling from where we are right now what will happen. But to say with absolute certainty that he can't win is stupid and, dare I say, bitter.


I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.
by JDF on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:28:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the link (none / 0)

Actually he hasn't improved. Since Wright, his demographics have worsened for the most part. His high point was WI but has failed to meet that in every primary since then. I know we aren't supposed to talk about his problems. We are supposed to pretend that everything is just somehow going to work out right.

Aren't you the one who said Obama was going to do great in PA and how excited everyone was, even in rural areas about Obama?

Bitter? What is with Obama supporters and their condescending bitter remarks? Calling me bitter isn't going to change facts. Or solve Obama's problems.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:36:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the link (none / 0)

We all know Wright hurt him with demographics, we all know that, but he still came out on top. He still improved from Pennsylvania, which was his low point.

Wright put him back a few months and now he's back on track. Had Wright not happened, who knows, maybe Pennsylvania would've looked a little more like Indiana.


The Democratic Party doesn't live or die with the Clintons
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:01:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the link (none / 0)

Shockingly, his demographics will get massively worse as we move to WV, and then suddenly they will turn around when we get to OR. Watch how the election whip saws back and forth, it's a real squeaker out there!

No, actually, his demographics stay about the same, it's just that there are a bunch of demographics that don't get polled in the exit polls. Poblano's multiple regression predicted PA, IN, and NC within a fairly tight margin, based on the earlier races. If Obama's demographics were changing significantly, you couldn't use past performance to predict future results. Likewise if the demographics were changing, he wouldn't be staying pretty much constant in the national polls.


by letterc on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:58:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We don't care how he wins (none / 0)

Or with what demographics.  You don't have that roadmap, and neither do we.  We just know that McCain is a pitiful little old man with PTSD who wants a hundred year war in Iraq.  If (Insert name here)(D) can't beat this pathetic creature, we'd better disband the Democratic party and head out to the desert and cut our throats with a rusty knife.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:32:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not True At All (2.00 / 2)

The averages from Pollster.com and RealClearPolitics have Clinton and Obama both beating McCain, by almost exactly the same margin. And this website's arguably biased electoral vote map only shows a slim  advantage for Hillary. If she narrowly lost Florida or Ohio she would have no possibility of becoming President, whereas Obama has a chance without either of them.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:22:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

Sorry but look no further than the EC on this website. Obama has less ways to win than Clinton.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:53:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (2.00 / 1)

Really? On THIS website? SHOCKED!

And the election is so soon too! No question once it's no longer two-against-one against Obama it'll only get worse for Obama. Hardly any time to turn things around.

That's why Presidents Kerry and Dukakis did so well.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:55:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

Jerome said that he doesn't do those.

Obama has done poorly demographically so far. He doesn't seem to have the ability to turn it around even though he tried in IN and NC.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:59:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

Do you not realize that the counters on this site go strictly by the last poll?  Are you calling out bias in the latest poll? It doesn't matter what site its on.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:14:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

Is a poll accurate simply because it is the most recent?  Polling firm has no bearing?



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:27:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

I'd say the mere existance of it is kind of ridiculous -- and misleading; but I should not have implied they were fixed.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:44:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not True At All (none / 0)

fivethirtyeight.com has a much more sophisticated electoral analysis.  Polling and demographics show Obama is the stronger general electoral candidate.  And, that's before all his advantages that do not show up in polls are taken into account.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:54:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ha (none / 0)

The current EV tracker has McCain winning Wisconsin.  Fat chance.  They went a majority for Kerry, and don't even like him as much as they like Obama.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

New Mexico (2.00 / 1)

It also shows Democrats losing New Mexico, which doesn't seem likely to me. There are going to be a lot of resources poured into that state for Udall, and Richardson might even be the Vice Presidential nominee.

Obama could win those two states and lose Florida, Ohio AND Michigan and still win.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:32:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And... (2.00 / 1)

Obama has a realistic shot at Virginia, North Carolina, and even Texas. He could break 340 EVs without Florida and Ohio.

It boggles my mind that some people actually think Hillary would be a stronger candidate.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:37:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And... (none / 0)

He has no shot at those states. Latest polling has him losing VA. He loses NC too. He's not going to carry one state below the mason dixon line and none of the border states either. His chances are entirely dependent on getting a few smaller states though they don't nearly make up for the loss of FL and OH.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:57:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You Are So Laughably Wrong About Everything (none / 0)

As I said before, the EV map on this very site shows that Obama would win with either Michigan or New Mexico. He doesn't even have to get Florida or Ohio, and he certainly doesn't have to win Virginia or North Carolina or Texas, even though he has a much much much more realistic chance of winning those than Clinton does.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:05:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not Michigan (none / 0)

Wisconsin.


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:06:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ha (none / 0)

Kerry won WI by 1/2 of a percent. It's entirely possible that Obama would lose it too. I understand that the GOP recently defeated an AA candidate for supreme court by turning him into Willie Horton.

A lot of WI is very red.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:55:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ha (none / 0)

Bush was 10 points up on Kerry in Wisconsin at this point.

Bush was also up in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota.


The Democratic Party doesn't live or die with the Clintons
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:05:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ha (none / 0)

"The current EV tracker "

You mean, the "most current poll" as the tracker is based on every most recent poll, nothing more, nothing less.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:14:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

IMHO BO will do much better than HRC in a lot of traditional red states but he will still not do quite well enough to win any of them.  And as Nov 4th get closer the electoral college will look very similar to 2000 and to a lesser extent 2004.  But the fact is BO will not do very well in OH, FL, VA, KY, or WV. He just doesnt appeal to those voters and that is why HRC won so big in those states.

As i have written IMHO BO has to win CO and hold onto every state that Gore won to win in the GE. If he loses any state that Gore won (like NM) he can not get to 270 electoral votes.  And i also think that BO could win the popular vote by 2% and still not win the election because he does do so well in red states.

I understand that BO supporters disagree and the fact is we will see in Nov.  But i also say that BO better win because if he doesnt the members of the tradition democratic party (including the Clinton crowd and supporters) are going to be really angry and asking some hard questions and demanding some real changes.

david


by giusd on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:59:10 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

I guess I missed that time Warp where we went back and somehow HRC won Virginia.  I thought Obama won VA in a crushing victory, but I guess history got changed.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:17:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

OK in the nicest way.  Did you really read what i wrote. ""But the fact is BO will not do very well in OH, FL, VA, KY, or WV"? I clearly said in the GE not the primaries.  Could you please read a little closer.  And are you saying you really think BO can win the popular vote in VA.

david


by giusd on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:31:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Absolutely (none / 0)

Obama and Mark Warner can turn Virginia blue.

Look at the last SUSA GE match-up, which had McCain up by 8 points. They showed McCain getting 47% of the youth vote, 54% of the female vote, and 13% of the African-American vote. Does that seem realistic to you?


by Hatch on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:48:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Absolutely (none / 0)

Actually yes. McCain isn't as offensive to AA's as prior GOP nominees. Also, lots of security moms who will vote for McCain over Obama. Youth vote isn't really reliable.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:02:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

After McCain's speech about the Supreme Court (none / 0)

that he did a couple of days ago, I predict that those so called "security moms" will come back into the Democratic fold.

There is no way do they want Roe vs Wade to be overturned as it will be under John McCain.

His speech scared the crap out of me.


by puma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:09:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Don't be on it. Once again you are saying that they'll vote against McCain but aren't really going to vote for Obama. Anyway, how do you even know that they vote based on the supreme court? It seems lots of them don't you know. And Obama hasn't said that he would appoint pro choice judges anyway.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:40:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The fact that (none / 0)

you even think Obama wouldn't put pro-choice judges on the court makes you lose credibility. The guy has one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate and has always been very pro-choice. He's just as pro-choice as Hillary.

and i'm speaking as a "pro-lifer"


The Democratic Party doesn't live or die with the Clintons
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:58:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (none / 0)

Mayor Koch got this part right, "although in politics you never ever can count anybody out." If McCain and Obama start to go at it, don't count Obama out.

Ed Koch...I wonder if he'll end up supporting McCain. I hope not. Poor McCain has enough problems already. Too many problems.


McCainuire, The Wrath Of Not Enough Naps.
by catilinus on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:05:45 AM EST

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (2.00 / 2)

Obama's Money Cartel: How Barack Obama Fronted for the Most Vicious Predators on Wall Street

Wednesday, 07 May 2008  
by Pam Martens

The candidate that claims to be the only presidential contender who doesn't take money from lobbyists is in fact the biggest recipient of lobby-related contributions. Barack Obama rakes in millions from law firms serving the interests of Wall Street, including the financial institutions that gave us the subprime lending crisis. Lawyers that work for firms that earn hundreds of millions of dollars for lobbying may technically not be lobbyists, but they share in their colleagues' earnings as influencers of Congress - a legal loophole that allows Obama to claim his hands are clean of lobby loot. "The top contributors to the Obama campaign are the very Wall Street firms whose shady mortgage lenders buried the elderly and the poor and minority under predatory loans."

Read the entire article closely and then answer this question: Can you tell any difference between G.W. Bush and Barack Obama except skin color? You've been bamboozled, hoodwinked!

Barack Obama IS the Corporate Candidate:

http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.p hp?option=com_content&task=view& id=613&Itemid=1


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Harry S Truman
by Tennessean on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:07:20 AM EST

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

Just one question: What is Senator Clinton's policy and practice on fund-raising?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:10:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

A good question.

Because he isn't a DLC member?
And didn't vote for the Iraq invasion?
Didn't back the surge last year?
Didn't jump up and applaud Bush when he said the surge is working during the SOTU speech?
Didn't threaten the nuclear obliteration of Iran?
Didn't vote for cluster bombs?
Didn't vote for Kyl-Lieberman?
Supports normalization for Cuba?
Didn't try to gut ethics reform?
Succeeded in passing ethics reform?

Just maybe.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:27:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

You mean couldn't vote for the AUMF because he wasn't a member of the Senate and his home state wasn't attacked on 911.


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:49:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (2.00 / 1)

Jerrold Nadler didn't vote for the AUMF and not only was his home state was attacked, but also his congressional district.


The Democratic Party doesn't live or die with the Clintons
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:07:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

We are not talking about Jerrold Nadler and his vote we are talking about Barak Obama and his claim on how  he would have voted.


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:31:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (2.00 / 1)

but you're talking about how having your state attacked on 9/11 makes a difference on how one votes.


The Democratic Party doesn't live or die with the Clintons
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:59:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

I feel obligated to respond to some of your comments, not to say that Hillary bests Barack on some of theses votes or issues but merely to enlighten his stance on some of these points:

"And didn't vote for the Iraq invasion". You can't be more right! In fact, it's impossible for Barack to have voted for the Iraq invasion because he wasn't even in the senate at time. But you already know that and might say that he was opposed to the war from the start anyways. This is probably true, but when asked how he would have voted he responded: "What would I have done? I don't know." Is that the type of strong leadership we can expect from him? Opposing the war in public but not knowing how to vote?

Read this article if you don't believe me:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.ht ml?res=9407E2DF153DF935A15754C0A9629C8B6 3&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=2

"Didn't threaten the nuclear obliteration of Iran?" No he certainly hasn't done that. But let's look at the context for this comment. She would attack Iran with nuclear weapons IF Iran nuclear attacked Israel. Now Israel is our ally (whether you agree with it or not) and we will protect our allies from enemies. Do you know of NATO? Well she might as well have mentioned that she would nuclear attack Iran if it attacked any of the NATO countries. But what would Barack do? Would Barack not protect our allies? Now I hope to god that this will never happen and that there will be no nuclear attacks period, but a president must be ready for anything.

But when, MSNBC asked him what HE would do. He responded by noting to the press that she sounded like a certain republican (alluding to Bush) and didn't outline what he would do in such an event. This to me is attacking Hillary and not answering what he would do. Now I know that the Barack campaign has been avoiding these type of questions saying that he is for a new kind of politics and that today's system is broken but it's a honest question that, at least to me, is a very important one, especially if he is attacking Hillary because of it.

"Didn't back the surge last year" Well this is about Barack: "since taking office in January 2005, he has voted for four separate war appropriations, totaling more than $300 billion." Now this does not not mean that he was supporting the surge you are refering to but he has been backing a number of appropriations that has help make the continuation of the Iraq war very possible.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washin gton/articles/2007/03/20/obamas_record_s hows_caution_nuance_on_iraq/

And go on, ask me about the vote to so called authorize an Iran war, this is similar to the Iraq vote only she has coauthored a bill the will not allow Bush to use it as an authorization for war.


by worlddem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More half truths, spin and evasion. (none / 0)

   We've had enough and to spare.  Time to turn the page and get some honesty into our government.  The problem that Hillary has is with her elastic notion of the truth.  60 percent of the public  say she is untrustworthy, and for well-substantiated reasons.  
   Fortunately, it will all be moot in a week or three.  We can wait.  We've been waitng a hell of a long time.
by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:24:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh no! (none / 0)

People with lots of money support Obama in ethical ways that do not tie him down to doing favors for them!

Whatever will we do?

Jeez, you people will try to make his strengths out to be weaknesses.  How very Rovian of you.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:27:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh no! (none / 0)

And those people with lots of money want to earn more of that money by having the firms they work for succeed. So instead of using a lobbyist to grease palms they do it themselves.


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:51:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sure. (none / 0)

The point is, they're just citizens offering money to political candidates as they're allowed to under finance law.  

Obama will owe them nothing.  Even without them he'd be breaking finance records with over a million small donors.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:00:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh no! Can You Not Read? (1.00 / 2)

Oh, no, indeed.

Read the article, fool. Because clearly you did not do so, or you wouldn't make such an ignorant comment.

Barack Obama is the front man for Wall Street Corporadoes, and he's already paid them back in spades for their support.

What makes you think he won't do it again? He's already done it THREE times that I can think of, and the cost to black consumers as well as white consumers--as outlined in the article--is in the billions of dollars.

For example:

On February 10, 2005, Senator Obama voted in favor of the passage of the Class Action Fairness Act of 2005. Senators Biden, Boxer, Byrd, Clinton, Corzine, Durbin, Feingold, Kerry, Leahy, Reid and 16 other Democrats voted against it. It passed the Senate 72-26 and was signed into law on February 18, 2005.

Here is an excerpt of remarks Senator Obama made on the Senate floor on February 14, 2005, concerning the passage of this legislation:

"Every American deserves their day in court. This bill, while not perfect, gives people that day while still providing the reasonable reforms necessary to safeguard against the most blatant abuses of the system. I also hope that the federal judiciary takes seriously their expanded role in class action litigation, and upholds their responsibility to fairly certify class actions so that they may protect our civil and consumer rights...."

Three days before Senator Obama expressed that fateful yea vote, 14 state attorneys general, including Lisa Madigan of Senator Obama's home state of Illinois, filed a letter with the Senate and House, pleading to stop the passage of this corporate giveaway:

The AGs wrote:

"State attorneys general frequently investigate and bring actions against defendants who have caused harm to our citizens... In some instances, such actions have been brought with the attorney general acting as the class representative for the consumers of the state. We are concerned that certain provisions of S.5 might be misinterpreted to impede the ability of the attorneys general to bring such actions...."

The Senate also received a desperate plea from more than 40 civil rights and labor organizations, including the NAACP, Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, Human Rights Campaign, American Civil Liberties Union, Center for Justice and Democracy, Legal Momentum (formerly NOW Legal Defense and Education Fund), and Alliance for Justice. They wrote as follows:

"Under the [Class Action Fairness Act of 2005], citizens are denied the right to use their own state courts to bring class actions against corporations that violate these state wage and hour and state civil rights laws, even where that corporation has hundreds of employees in that state. Moving these state law cases into federal court will delay and likely deny justice for working men and women and victims of discrimination. The federal courts are already overburdened. Additionally, federal courts are less likely to certify classes or provide relief for violations of state law."

This legislation, which dramatically impaired labor rights, consumer rights and civil rights, involved five years of pressure from 100 corporations, 475 lobbyists, tens of millions of corporate dollars buying influence in our government, and the active participation of the Wall Street firms now funding the Obama campaign.

"The Civil Justice Reform Group, a business alliance comprising general counsels from Fortune 100 firms, was instrumental in drafting the class-action bill," says Public Citizen.

The article names Obama's biggest corporate contributors, including Citigroup and Mayer-Brown, which is the leading business lobby group:

One of the hardest working registered lobbyists to push this corporate giveaway was the law firm Mayer-Brown, hired by the leading business lobby group, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the Chamber of Commerce spent $16 million in just 2003, lobbying the government on various business issues, including class action reform.

According to a 2003 report from Public Citizen, Mayer-Brown's class action lobbyists included "Mark Gitenstein, former chief counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee and a leading architect of the Senate strategy in support of class-action legislation; John Schmitz, who was deputy counsel to President George H.W. Bush; David McIntosh, former Republican congressman from Indiana; and Jeffrey Lewis, who was on the staffs of both Sen. John Breaux (D-La) and Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-La)".

While not on the Center for Responsive Politics list of the top 20 contributors to the Obama presidential campaign, Mayer-Brown's partners and employees are in rarefied company, giving a total of $92,817 through December 31, 2007, to the Obama campaign. (The firm is also defending Merrill Lynch in court against charges of racial discrimination.)

"Obama helped  gut one of the few weapons left to seek justice against giant corporations and their legions of giant law firms."

Why does this matter? Because these corporate Obama donors are the very same people who are thieving from minorities and the elderly in predatory lending practices. And, Barack Obama voted against the cap in lending, even when it was at 30%. Ergo: Wall Street Financial Powerhouses like Citigroup gave Obama big money. He rewarded them by helping them to rip off minorities and the elderly:

According to a comprehensive report from the nonprofit group, United for a Fair Economy, over the past eight years the total loss of wealth for people of color is between $164 billion and $213 billion for subprime loans which is the greatest loss of wealth for people of color in modern history:

"According to federal data, people of color are more than three times more likely to have subprime loans: high-cost loans account for 55 per cent of loans to blacks, but only 17 per cent of loans to whites."      

If there had been equitable distribution of subprime loans, losses for white people would be 44.5 per cent higher and losses for people of color would be about 24 per cent lower.  "This is evidence of systemic prejudice and institutional racism."

And, here's the kicker: Black voters get a black candidate they think will represent their interests. He won't. He has already hurt their interests for the next 500 years by supporting Corporate Financial Donors in a quid pro quo. The current mortgage crisis is the result of these same Corporate Obama Cronies:

Before the current crisis, based on improvements in median household net worth, it would take 594 more years for blacks to achieve parity with whites. The current crisis is likely to stretch this even further.

You'd better realize the ultimate ugly truth about Obama. He isn't interested in representing YOU. He's just a vehicle for others interested in continuing the status quo:

So, how should we react when we learn that the top contributors to the Obama campaign are the very Wall Street firms whose shady mortgage lenders buried the elderly and the poor and minority under predatory loans? How should we react when we learn that on the big donor list is Citigroup, whose former employee at CitiFinancial testified to the Federal Trade Commission that it was standard practice to target people based on race and educational level, with the sales force winning bonuses called  "Rocopoly Money" (like a sick board game), after "blitz" nights of soliciting loans by phone? How should we react when we learn that these very same firms, arm in arm with their corporate lawyers and registered lobbyists, have weakened our ability to fight back with the class-action vehicle?

Should there be any doubt left as to who owns our government? The very same cast of characters making the Obama hit parade of campaign loot are the clever creators of the industry solutions to the wave of foreclosures gripping this nation's poor and middle class, effectively putting the solution in the hands of the robbers. The names of these programs (that have failed to make a dent in the problem) have the same vacuous ring: Hope Now; Project Lifeline.

Vote for Barack. But be fully aware of who you're voting for. Read the full article, stop deluding yourself:  

http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.p hp?option=com_content&task=view& id=613&Itemid=1


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Harry S Truman
by Tennessean on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:33:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

I'll tell you what should really disturb Americans...

Click the link below to see a list of countries that hired lobbyists to push their agenda in Washington.  See who these lobbyists have raised money for? Clinton and McCain!

http://www.centerforinvestigativereporti ng.org/files/flash/webofinfluence.swf
(i found this link on the ABC news website)

Take this country back America!
We dont need fundraisers lobbying for foreign governments.


by Avandi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:35:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

More wingnut drivel. You guys will spew anyone's crap.


by eddieb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:38:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Can Progressives Support This Man? (none / 0)

Thats a great come back.  Erhmm, spew anyones crap?  Please.  The center for investigative reporting is partnered with news agencies like CNN, ABC, Los Angeles Times, MotherJones, The Washington Post, etc etc.

My fellow Americans, we need to take this country back from lobbyist like these!  That is why this independent is going to be voting for Obama in the general.


by Avandi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:08:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"None of that matters." (none / 0)

Uh, Hillary has actually promised to help.

Not sure who Ronk is, but he sounds like a bitter ender:

"Still, Hillary is Hillary. Capable. Unshakable. Ready to take the 3A.M. call -- any day, any time of day -- no matter what."

After her disastrous campaign, I'm not sure what the capable refers to.  If she had run a more competent campaign, she would have won the nomination.


by ReillyDiefenbach on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:08:32 AM EST

Re: "None of that matters." (none / 0)

What happens if the call comes at 2:30am or at 4:00am?  What about 11:30am?


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:19:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "None of that matters." (none / 0)

..and that's why Obama has the nomination? He ran a good campaign?


by usedmeat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:38:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "None of that matters." (none / 0)

Ding ding ding ding ding


Unable to rec or rate Still supporting Obama
by astoria gooner on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:46:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But can we trust her? (none / 0)

She seems gracious, but she is grasping at the last straw, as is obvious by what Garrin said.

This is why she needs to go. We need to unify not divide further.

Can we flip it. How in the hell can Hillary win without black  voters?

When Obama finally has a chance to speak to the people as the nominee, he won't be burdened with this rhetoric of division, especially if McCain picks a black running mate.
 


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:56:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So what matters now (or very soon) is (2.00 / 1)

do we support the Democratic nominee?  Or do we keep slicing & dicing.

The reason the voters are split is that we've had two good candidates.  That'll split things, no surprise.  And with Cinton & Obama running it'll naturally tend to split along gender & racial lines.  That doesn't necessarily equate to large-scale racism or sexism.  

But to say that the split will continue is silly handwringing.  When there's only one Democratic candidate there'll be only one who represents our values & policies.  Anyone who wants a better world more than revenge will support that person.

It'd be nice if Clinton didn't point to the split as evidence that Obama can't get whites, but what else is she going to do right now?


by Garret on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:09:44 AM EST

Re: The 'electability' grunge match (2.00 / 1)

Koch is just saying what most people know to be true. Obama will lose the general election. When your demographics START out worse than Kerry (who lost) then your chances of winning the general election are pretty much zero.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:10:52 AM EST

That makes no sense. (none / 0)

Kerry is proof that what demographics look like in May is meaningless to the end result.  Public opinion changes.

Obama is just getting of a hotly contested primary and it will, yes, take some time to secure Clinton's demographics.  When that happens, and it will, for the most part, Obama will be supremely positioned to take down McCain.

I suggest you start giving strategies to secure the base or cut out your pointless negativity.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:30:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That makes no sense. (none / 0)

The problem is that he is starting from where Kerry left off. He hasn't shown the ability to turn his demographic problems around in the primaries so how do you think he'll be able to do it in the general?

He has even said that he thinks these people are idiots and his campaign has said that they don't want their votes. Good luck winning a general election with only the youth vote, AA vote and creative class vote. You might pull 45% of the vote in a general election with those demographics.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:06:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If everyone who didn't vote for Obama (none / 0)

in the primary doesn't vote for him in the general, then yeah, he loses, but I don't see any good reason why he can't win those voters over. That's what you do after a primary, you win the voters who didn't vote for you over.


The Democratic Party doesn't live or die with the Clintons
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:10:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If everyone who didn't vote for Obama (none / 0)

Like I said, he said he doesn't want those voters already. Don't you think the GOP is going to remind them? He can't win them over because he sees them as some kind of sociological focus group not real people. He talks to them like they're aliens. They apparently are beyond his scope of understanding.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:22:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If everyone who didn't vote for Obama (none / 0)

Can you link the quote where Obama says he doesn't want those voters?



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:35:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If everyone who didn't vote for Obama (none / 0)

Remember the comments in SF? Saying they are bitter and cling to their guns and religion is pretty much writing them off.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:42:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh I see (none / 0)

You want to take a drastically mischaracterized answer to a question and turn it into campaign platform.

It's funny that he said that while he was immersed in a primary where he was fighting to get that exact vote.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:54:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He didn't ever say that. (none / 0)

Obama would never say he didn't want entire demographics.

What he's talking about is either Donna Brazille's assertion the other night (...who is an uncommitted superdelegate...) or David Axelrod's explanation that Democrats, when they win, still typically lose the white vote slightly but make up for it with minorities.

Axelrod is talking about historical precident, not their current campaign strategy.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on