Odd that one of them was a Southern state that's in play for the General Election and for a Senate pick-up.
Using CNN exit polls, I've mimicked Jerome's front-page graph, which showed Obama's growing margin of victory among African-American voters over the course of the primary season. Jerome's post asked whether or not Obama's percentage of the white vote has been decreasing. Let's take a look...
Non-South:
State Clinton Margin Of Victory Over Obama Among Whites
Nevada*^ +18
Arizona^ +15
California +1
Connecticut +1
Delaware +16
Massachusetts +18
Missouri' +18
New Jersey +35
Wisconsin^ -9
Ohio' +30
Pennsylvania +26
Indiana +20
South:
State Clinton Margin Of Victory Over Obama Among Whites
South Carolina*^ +12
Alabama^ +47
Georgia^ +10
Tennessee^ +41
Louisiana^ +28
Maryland +10
Virginia^ -5
Texas^ +11
Mississippi^ +49
North Carolina^ +24
*=states where Edwards won 10% or more of the white vote
^=states where Clinton would lose to McCain, according to the current MyDD Electoral Vote map
'=states where Obama would lose to McCain but Clinton would win, according to the current MyDD Electoral Vote map
My admittedly biased analysis is that these exit polls numbers show Obama has not become gradually weaker among white Democrats in states that are in play for the fall, in spite of "bittergate" and the Rev. Wright escapades.
Of the 14 states where Obama lost the white vote by 15% or more, 7 are states where neither Obama nor Clinton are currently projected to win the fall. Obama is expected to win Delaware, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Indiana, in spite of Clinton's significant edge among white Democratic primary voters. Obama's "white voter problem" looks like it could potentially rear it's ugly head in Ohio and Missouri in the fall, but the current EV map shows that Obama could still win without either of those states as long as he can win in Michigan or New Mexico.
As far as the south is concerned, Obama actually beat Clinton among white voters in Virginia, which is arguably the best Southern pick-up opportunity for Democrats this year.
So in answer to Jerome's question: No, Obama's percentage of the white vote has not been trending down with each contest. Two of his worst showings were on February 5th in New Jersey and Alabama, and he did only slighly worse one month later in the deep red, deep south state of Mississippi, which hasn't voted for a Democratic President since... well, it's been a long time. Obama did about as well among white voters in North Carolina and Indiana as he did in Louisiana and Massachusetts back in February, long before anyone had ever heard Jeremiah Wright say "God Damn America."
Now if you want to start fighting about whether white voters should somehow count more than black voters, I kindly invite you to work for the appeal of the 15th amendment to the Constitution.|
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