Resolving Michigan

Michigan Democrats have submitted the plan they would like the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee to approve at their May 31st Meeting. While Senator Clinton has asked that the delegates be seated according to January's primary results (73-55), Senator Obama has proposed allocating them evenly (64-64) since he wasn't on the ballot. This plan would essentially split the difference.

Michigan Democratic leaders on Wednesday settled on a plan to give presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton 69 delegates and Barack Obama 59 as a way to get the state's delegates seated at the national convention. [...]

The state party's executive committee voted Wednesday to ask the national party's Rules and Bylaws Committee to approve the 69-59 delegate split when it meets May 31. The plan would allow the state's 157 delegates and superdelegates to be seated at the convention.

While the plan would give Hillary Clinton just a 10-pledged delegate advantage, the real key to Clinton's approval of the plan could be the superdelegates, of which Michigan has 29. As of now, among those that have declared, Clinton has a lead, although Obama may have some of those undeclared supers in his pocket, especially after Tuesday. Which could be why ultimately Obama would approve the plan as well. Of course, a couple other reasons Clinton should like the plan are that it officially raises the delegate threshold the candidates need to win AND it arguably legitimizes Michigan's popular vote. But if the Obama campaign does approve this plan, it would be a sure sign of their confidence that even with Michigan (and Florida) Hillary Clinton would not be able to catch up.

Update [2008-5-8 15:39:55 by Todd Beeton]:Yes, Hillary Clinton has rejected the Michigan compromise but I agree with Bowers that it essentially represents the best result she can hope for. Which in itself isn't all that good.

[I]t is extremely unlikely that Clinton will get a better deal than this on Michigan. When it or something similar does pass, Florida will become irrelevant... Even with Florida seated as is, Clinton trails by 95 delegates when the Michigan Party's plan is enacted. Further, since Edwards has declined to make an endorsement, his 32 delegates are now effectively uncommitted superdelegates. So, this means that the best case-scenario for Clinton right now is that she trails by 95 delegates with 550.5 delegates remaining. So, even in Clitnon's best case scenario, Obama only needs 228 of the remaining 550.5 delegates, or 41.4%, to win the nomination.



Display:


Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 2)

Obama took his name off the ballot and should be entitled to none of MI delegates. Period.


by Iceblinkjm on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:47:10 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

well lucky for him the State of Michigan seems to disagree with you.


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:48:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 3)

There were 40% of people who not only didn't vote for Hillary, they showed up simply to vote against her. You would like to pretend that they mean nothing. I disagree.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:49:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 3)

I voted for Senator Clinton, but I can admit she went along with the DNC's "no delegates for MI" plan.  


I voted for Hillary, but would be happy with Obama!
by deepee on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:49:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 5)

It is statements like this that give Clinton supporters credibility problems.(and an appearance of desperation)


"I am standing with Barack Obama to say, `Yes, we can!'" Hillary Clinton 6/7/08
by feliks on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:50:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

Fine. Then Hillary gets none as well.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:52:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

two can play that game (2.00 / 1)

well michigan violated the rules so michigan should not count any delegates if you feel since Obama took his name off the ballots he should not have any...... why can't it be fair ?


John McCain's pick-up line is, 'Did you know that 150 is the new 130?'"
by wellinformed on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:54:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hey Ice Blink (2.00 / 1)

Obama took his name off the ballot and should be entitled to none of MI delegates. Period.

Just for the purposes of discussion (this is a discussion group, right?), let's play Devil's Advocate, okay? This is a game where you put yourself in the position of your opponent, to understand his or her strategy.

Okay ... primary season is coming up and you, democratic candidate IceBlink Obama, are faced with the Michigan situation. What do you do and why?


McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist.
by obsessed on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:00:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Yeah! He was stupid for doing what he and Clinton agreed to do. What a moron. He deserves to be punished with another of Clinton's sleazy stunts.


by kitebro on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:39:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

So did Al Gore and Bill Bradley in 2000 when Michigan violated party rules.

It's not about Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama; it's about the Democratic party as an institution.  Any outcome that recognizes the January results will allow states in 2012 to leapfrog the state's primary date in violation party rules.  There have to be consequences for breaking the rules.


by Brad G on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:39:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The only question worth asking, apparently, (none / 0)

is "How stupid are the rest of the undeclared superdelegates?"

In a primary contest where less than 10% of the country remains to be counted, it does virtually no damn good for Clinton to rely on the results of popular voting.

As every Clinton supporter on this board likes to point out incessantly, this contest will not be decided solely on the remaining vote.  The superdelegates will decide the nominee.

If the super d's are stupid and full of fail, then political stunts like awarding every delegate to Clinton despite reality-based thinking will succeed.  If they actually have the capacity for discernment, stunts like what you describe will just prove how out of touch the Clinton campaign is.


You haven't seen impatient until you've seen a monkey waiting for a donut.
by bjones on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 2)

arguably legitimizes Michigan's popular vote.

True, but the popular vote is only an argument that is used to sway superdelegates.. and at this point it's not a very convincing one.


by soros on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:48:28 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

And months ago she agreed that MI and FL wouldn't get delegates.  We will only come to a good solution when both Obama  and Clinton supporters are honest about this.


I voted for Hillary, but would be happy with Obama!
by deepee on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:51:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 2)

I am a Sen. Clinton supporter.  Lay off the generalizations, it gets us nowhere.


I voted for Hillary, but would be happy with Obama!
by deepee on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:53:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

She beat Obama by 55% in Michigan!

what do you mean "by 55%"  ? huh?  the results were 55% clinton, 40% uncommitted.  


by soros on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:58:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Yeah he had 0% of the vote.


Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America
by Zeitgeist9000 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:07:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

do you really think people are so stupid that they will buy into that argument?  do you really?  

Grow the fuck up.


by soros on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:08:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 2)

Please tell me you aren't going to argue that she ACTUALLY beat him 55-0?  And people claim the system is rigged so that Obama can win the nomination.  Give me a break.


John McCain believes "Women shouldn't have a choice."
by jturn17 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:09:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

let her have the popular vote meme (none / 0)

she doesn't need the MI compromise to legitimize it. she can claim that she would have come out ahead in MI anyway under a real primary (with both people's names on the ballot) and supers can decide for themselves.

Incidentally, I would like to see polls from around that time of who would have won.  it's possible that obama would have come in 3rd or 4th


by ab03 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:56:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: let her have the popular vote meme (none / 0)

possible that he might have come in 10th place since he was such a new character that hardly anybody knew  anything about.    

Had michigan not broken the rules Obama would have campaigned and spent money advertising in the state.. then you could speculate maybe he would have won the state, who knows?    

Impossible some would say... well, who won Iowa?


by soros on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:14:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

She also beat me, and you, by 55% in Michigan. We each had exactly as much presence in the Michigan campaign as Barack Obama. Polling today shows that Michigan, if there were a revote, would likely go to Obama.

The only way to consider Michigan in the popular vote is to give him all who voted uncommitted. Not that it matters since popular votes does not matter.


I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.
by JDF on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:03:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's not the _only_ way... (none / 0)

There was exit polling that indicated he would have done better than the 40% uncommitted vote. You could apportion delegates according to the exit polling, and that would be closer to the actual "will of the people."

So here's a question for the people saying MI and FL must be seated (as-is, of course) because of the PRINCIPLE OF DEMOCRACY:

Would you be OK with giving Obama delegates and credit for estimated popular vote based on the exit polling in MI?


by kydoc on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

"AND it arguably legitimizes Michigan's popular vote"

No it doesn't.....is this the Michigan popular vote that awards Obama ZERO votes?

and for the record, the "popular vote" is a myth. There are too many ways to arrive at a hard number.


"I am standing with Barack Obama to say, `Yes, we can!'" Hillary Clinton 6/7/08
by feliks on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:49:22 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

she can try and argue it, but with Obama so close to the magic number, and the CW switching to yes Obama is the nominee,

I don't know how many supers she will move with that argument, or if she will move enough, remember the popular vote argument is just that an argument.

its meant to get supers to endorse her so she can get to the magic number. the magic number still rules all and I don't think enough supes will be swayed, at least not before Obama can get more to hit the number.


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:52:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Except what you've been told is the magic number isn't the magic number. When MI and FL are settled and seated, then you'll have the actual magic number, which will be a couple of hundred higher than what you've been fed.

Just saying.

Obama has a huge advantage at this point, no doubt about it, but he doesn't have it locked up yet. And he won't until he wins over enough SDs--the same scenario Clinton is looking at, albeit with much longer odds. But there is no inevitability yet, just a narrowing of possibility.

That's called 'a process', which, regardless of foot stomping and holding our breath until we turn blue, will not be over until it's actually over.


by dark1p on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:03:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

I'm gonna agree with you here.  If/when the MI and FL issue is settled, the Magic Mystery Number will change.

You are also correct, IMO, about the "process".  I suppose you could say that by some combination of miracles Clinton could pull through.  I mean, I suppose Obama could spontaneously combust, or be hit by ball lightning, or be abducted by aliens.

You know, it could happen.  Just sayin'.


You haven't seen impatient until you've seen a monkey waiting for a donut.
by bjones on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not to mention (2.00 / 1)

that if the popular vote was the metric to be used to decide the nominee, Obama would have run his campaign differently. He ran his campaign to get the maximum number of delegates; you don't get to change the goal now that it's nearly over.


by Angry White Democrat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:11:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

It's OVA!


by cherrygarcia on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:50:47 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

How would it legitimize the popular vote?  Wouldn't the fact that Obama received delegates necessarily imply that at least 1 Michigan voter would have supported him?

If you allocate a certain percentage of the "uncommitted" vote to him, perhaps you'd have a point.


by rfahey22 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:52:05 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

IIRC exit polls suggested he would have exceeded the uncommitted vote had he been on the ballot, so "a certain percentage" of the uncommitted vote would be an underestimation of his actual popular support at the time of the voting.


by kydoc on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:13:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

I seem to remember a big effort on behalf of the Obama campaign to have his supporters vote "uncommitted". Obama is not named "uncommitted" thus he should not receive those votes.


by Iceblinkjm on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:52:35 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

It doesn't matter.  If they come to a compromise that gives her less delegates than what the "actual vote" allocated, then the popular vote is dubbed automatically illegitimate because it shows that the results from January were illegitimate to begin with.  Thus they both receive 0 votes.


John McCain believes "Women shouldn't have a choice."
by jturn17 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:58:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 2)

I'm curious, what exactly do you think that the popular vote signifies?  Clinton supporters here seem to be treating as just a number, and to believe that if her number is larger than Obama's number, then she should win.

If instead you treat the popular vote as a measure of a candidate's actual support, which I happen to believe is the true purpose of such a number, then allocating 0 votes to Obama is ludicrous, regardless of whether or not he was on the ballot.  You can either argue from Clinton's personal perspective or try to approximate the true will of Michigan voters, but not both, and it's dishonest to suggest otherwise.


by rfahey22 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

Are you serious? Do you really think that that 'resolution' stands a chance of occurring, anywhere in this Universe?


Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie
by toyomama on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:59:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Are you enjoying the bitter end?


I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.
by JDF on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:10:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

So no penalty at all?  I can't support that.  If MI had just done what the DNC asked them to do then we could have avoided a big, time wasting, distracting episode.   They deserve to be punished for their pigheadedness.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:57:00 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

And just imagine how important Michigan would have been if the voted in April or May! They really blew it.


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:26:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

I agree.  Pledged delegates should be cut in half and no superdelegates should be awarded at all, this mess started with them.


by shalca on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:28:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Well, there go all of Obama's caucus wins. If it ain't an election, it ain't legit.


by dark1p on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:57:13 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

That's not a determination by committee.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 2)

How old are you?

Do you understand that in the real world rules aren't changed in mid-stream like this? Either Clinton should have run her campaign with an iota of sense, or she should have worked to change the system before hand.

This whining about Caucuses is all straw men and ridiculous desperation.


by MNPundit on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:16:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

Why don't Hillary suppoorters ever address the fact that she agreed to these rules before the contests started. She tacitly agreed that any violations of the rules would be met with this punishment. I mean, they ALL SIGNED IT.

Hillary agreed to the rules. Her campaign had a say in the rules. She could have voiced concern over the punishments for various infractions when the rules were being drawn up.

How the eff is it FAIR to turn around mid game and suggest that the very same rules you helped to created should now be thrown out and the results just HAPPEN to be in your favor through no fault of your own.

Can someone please answer this for me? Why is it OK for her to change the rules that SHE AGREED TO?


by liquidbread11 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:23:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Yeah I've been wondering this as well. In all the boards where someone brings this up there is a deafening silence about it.


by notedgeways on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:17:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

If the Clintons remain as pig headed as some of their supporters they'll keep holding an empty bag.

Obama should make no deal with the vanquished until he has enough SDs to lock up the nomination any way it's looked at.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:58:04 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

It honestly won't matter.  It'd be better for him to seat the delegates sooner rather than later.  He has a 166ish pledged delegate lead.  If he loses the remaining states by 20 delegate, loses 10 to Michigan, and 20 to Florida, she's still 116 down not just in pledged.  He's almost tied with her in superdelegates.

The sooner Michigan and Florida are resolved the sooner she drops out.  Because it's one less thing she can point to to give her campaign justification.


John McCain believes "Women shouldn't have a choice."
by jturn17 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:01:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Interesting theory that I think has a lot of sound reasoning to it.


I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.
by JDF on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:11:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

In a way, I agree. I don't think either candidate should make a 'deal' here. Quite frankly, I don't see why either of them should be involved at all. The MI state party and the national party are the ones who had the problem with each other, so it should be up to them to solve it. What they agree to is what should happen. If either candidate has a problem with it, that's too bad.

But of course, our party leadership doesn't act like leaders, they just keep blundering around in their own semi-toothless, clueless fashion.


by dark1p on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:08:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The DNC has to enforce it's rules in some way. (2.00 / 2)

Strip 1/2 and then allocate.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:59:14 PM EST

Yep. The minute Obama feels he doesn't (none / 0)

need FL or MI, he'll be falling all over himmself trying to reach a compromise, even if it favors Hillary, to show us all how he cares so much about FL's and MI's voters. If he was concerned at all about the voters of FL and MI, there would already have been a revote, or at least one scheduled. All he had to do was agree to it.


Obama supporter working to defeat McCain.
by Rumarhazzit on Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:59:19 PM EST

Re: Yep. The minute Obama feels he doesn't (2.00 / 1)

if thats all you think was blocking MI from revoting then you don't really know about the re-vote in MI.


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:02:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Idiocracy anyone? (2.00 / 1)

This revote brought to you by Carl's Jr, and managed by lawyers from Costco Law School.

Sorry, nothing personal to the commenter, but every time I read about sponsored revotes (yeah I'm talking to you Harvey) I think of it in terms of that movie.


by drowsy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:10:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep. The minute Obama feels he doesn't (2.00 / 1)

The only "revote" that was offered him as a possibility one where only the Hillary voters would be allowed to come and vote, none of the people who stayed home the first time.

If that's your idea of "fairness", just bringing in the old people to have them cast their old ballots all over again, then... well then I realize why you support Clinton.


by Aris Katsaris on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:14:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Only Hillary voters? Not true. Everyone who (none / 0)

voted in the primary would have been able to revote. Including the uncommitteds who, we are told over and over, were almost all Obama votes. Especially since he campaigned so hard on behalf of "uncommitted," to try and embarrass Hillary.

only the Hillary voters would be allowed to come and vote,

So, once again, if Obama would have wanted a revote, there would have been a revote.


Obama supporter working to defeat McCain.
by Rumarhazzit on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:48:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the point, I think... (none / 0)

...is that anyone who stayed home because, say, they were informed ahead of time that the election did not count for anything and/or because their preferred candidate wasn't on the ballot, well they would not have been allowed to vote in the revote.

But hey, you just keep on pushing for fairness and justice with your unbiased zeal and everything.


by kydoc on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:19:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Only Hillary voters? Not true. Everyone who (none / 0)

So, basically, as I wrote in my post above, and which you cut, "none of the people who stayed home".

Obama would be allowed to perhaps decrease on his 40% of the uncommitted, never to increase it except by getting some of the voters that were so committed to Hillary that came to vote in an election that EVEN HILLARY HERSELF had told them wouldn't count.

At which point you're merely mocking the idea of the revote, since the very point of a revote in Michigan is to get the people WHO STAYED HOME BECAUSE THEY HAD BEEN TOLD BY EVERYONE (including Hillary) THAT THEIR VOTES WOULDN'T COUNT.

Do you people care about anything outside spin? Are you able to even take a step back and see how obvious the self-serving deceit is to everyone who isn't you?


by Aris Katsaris on Thu May 08, 2008 at 07:47:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep. The minute Obama feels he doesn't (2.00 / 1)

This is simply not true. There was never a prosal that would have only allowed Hillary voters to vote. This is blatant lie.


by Mayor McCheese on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:54:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep. The minute Obama feels he doesn't (none / 0)

Yeah, he'd also be allowed to decrease on his Uncommitted vote. My bad.

Since the point of the revote, was SUPPOSEDLY about getting the voters that stayed home because they had been told (even by Hillary) that their votes wouldn't count, you're merely mocking the very concept of a REVOTE.


by Aris Katsaris on Thu May 08, 2008 at 07:54:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep. The minute Obama feels he doesn't (none / 0)

The revote idea was a bad one as well.  It would have rewarded scofflaw FL/MI for breaking the rules by allowing them tie-breaker status.  If the DNC allowed scofflaw FL/MI the deciding vote in June, then why shouldn't PA, NC, IN, and all the other states that followed the rules and patiently waited their turn be allowed to move their primaries to some time after the FL/MI primaries to look like the tie-breaker?  I can only imagine what would happen in 2012 if a revote were allowed.


by Brad G on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:02:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Voters yes: Supers no! (2.00 / 1)

I wonder what would happen if Obama said seat the dels as-is, but no supers for either state, an any convention ballot.  There do need to be real consequences for the FAIL, but it should fall on the supers and not the avg voter.

Yes, I'm all Obama all the way, and I'm not even sure this helps him out, but I think he could gain some goodwill from the voters of MI and FL that way, and leave the beef to the 'elites'.


by drowsy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:02:04 PM EST

Re: Voters yes: Supers no! (none / 0)

With you solution, why wouldn't OH, PA, and all the other large states move up their primaries in violation of DNC rules to gain more influence?  IA and NH would lose their first-in-the-nation status, and this would put an end to retail politics as we know it.  Candidates without huge name recognition and deep pockets such as Chris Dodd, Mike Huckabee, and Joe Biden would never have a shot at the nomination as television would dominate.

No solution should recognize the January primary results of those two scofflaw jurisdictions.  It's that simple.


by Brad G on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:07:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

touche! (none / 0)

I knew there was something lacking there....


by drowsy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:24:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dead enders (2.00 / 1)

The Clintons have demonstrated that they think strife serves their purpose better than unity.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:03:57 PM EST

Re: Dead enders (1.00 / 1)

Ja! Ve must all unify behint der Leader! Those who refuze to unify az instructed vill be shot!

All dizagreement is treazon und counterproductive to ze greater goot!!


by dark1p on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dead enders (none / 0)

So you obviously are against a unified Democratic party. Go back to Redstate.


I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.
by JDF on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:13:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 2)

Take it.  Get this thing over with.  We need to win Michigan in November.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:05:51 PM EST

We need to win Michigan in November. (none / 0)

I've been suggesting that Gov. Napalitano of AZ or Gov. Sibelius of KS might be Obama's VP in order to attract women voters who now support hillary and put two GOP states into play.

But it recently occured to me that Gov. Granholm may be the one  to serve that purpose better than any. And it would put all the primary bitterness off the table too.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:10:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We need to win Michigan in November. (2.00 / 1)

Gov. Granholm, whom I adore, is constitutionally ineligible to the office.

I'm not sure about the wisdom of Gov. Napolitano in the one year when we clearly have no shot at Arizona, but I've heard good things about her.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:13:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We need to win Michigan in November. (2.00 / 1)

I didn't realize Granholm is ineligible. I'll have to read up on it.

Napalitano is very popular in AZ and would force McCain to defend it, if not lose it (he's got a lot of bag baggage here -- especially with dead-end cons who tried to recall him).


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:16:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We need to win Michigan in November. (none / 0)

Granholm was born in Canada, if I recall correctly, so she can't be VP or POTUS absent a Constitutional Amendment.  Napolitano is perfect in a lot of ways, but there are rumors that her purported sexual orientation would cross her off the VP list.  I don't think that's fair, even if true, but it will nonetheless probably be a consideration.  

Personally, I think she would make a fantastic choice for the Supreme Court or AG in an Obama administration.  


by HSTruman on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:34:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We need to win Michigan in November. (none / 0)

She would be a fantastic AG and a great Supreme Court Justice. Although I wonder if Repubs would make a big deal about her being Canadian...since they will make a big deal out of anything.


I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.
by JDF on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:16:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We need to win Michigan in November. (none / 0)

I almost relish the thought of forcing the GOP to try and filibuster a qualified Democratic Judicial nominee.  After all their nuclear option BS, that would be fantastic.  

And actually, either Granholm or Napolitano would be good choices for Justice or the Court.  They both have impressive legal backgrounds, and I think the Courts in particular would benefit from including some folks with elective political experience.  


by HSTruman on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:27:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yuck! (2.00 / 1)

I respect the impulse to make it up to the voters in MI, but the failure of the MI Dem high rollers is on par with any Bush-tinged project outcome.

We can defend their voters, but not reward their leaders at this point.


by drowsy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:13:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

But we need IA and NH for future candidates with low name recognition and little money.  Recognizing the January FL/MI results would punish the voters in the future as jurisdictions would move up their primaries before IA and NH.


by Brad G on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:09:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

I am not at all in favor of the IA/NH hegemony, but either way, there is no chance that it will happen as you describe.

The reason MI and FL moved up is that they wanted the heightened attention that comes with having an early primary.  They wanted the media attention, they wanted the revenues and the boon to the economy that comes with everyone flocking to your state for an early primary.

And, of course, they didn't get any of that, because they were punished.  Even if the punishment is removed, they still won't have any of the benefits they were looking for with the early primary.  The point will be made.

If all MI and FL cared about was having their delegates counted, they wouldn't have had to move the date at all!  Clearly they cared about much more than that, and they didn't get what they wanted.  So there is no reason to worry about a negative precedent being set.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:34:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

"I wonder what would happen if Obama said seat the dels as-is, but no supers for either state, an any convention ballot."

Both will be seated, though it may have to wait until Hillary's political corpse stops twitching.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:06:32 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

Hillary will reject and denounce anything but a 55-0 split.


by cherrygarcia on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:07:32 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

As she should that 55% did not vote for Obama but for her. Anything less is a slap in the face of those voters.


by Iceblinkjm on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:09:22 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 2)

I'm all for it, as long as Obama gets the 40% of the uncommitted plus the votes of all the people that stayed home because they were told the election wouldn't count but didn't loathe Clinton enough just to come in and vote against her.


by Aris Katsaris on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:17:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Why don't you award Obama Gravel's and Dodd's votes as well?


by Mayor McCheese on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:55:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

Because the whole point is about not disenfranchising voters, isn't it?

As long as you show me the way you have for counting those voters that stay home believing it when Clinton said their votes wouldn't count.

If Clinton had back then said "I'm gonna fight for these primaries to count, and I urge everyone to show up and vote" then she might have had a slim point.

But she didn't. She said the opposite, and the only reason she even got 55% is that too many of her supporters know not to take seriously anything she says.


by Aris Katsaris on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:58:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

slapfightin' (2.00 / 1)

Look, I get it that you want the best for your candidate, but honestly the leaders in MI did the slapping here.    If they didn't try to game the system, their primary would have meant so much more.  I don't think Indiana feels too sorry they were late in the calendar.

These guys are sucking valuable energy out of the party, and stiffing their constituents to boot.    Be just as merciless with those who created the mess as you are with Obama, who was just one of the pack when this went down, and had no hand in the judgements.

Two Clinton staffers did have something to do with this, and they are probably pretty cheezed off that MI did so much to remove a solid HRC state from the win column.

Hate away, but improve your aim!


by drowsy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:19:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Locate sand. Bury head. Rinse. Repeat.


by jbill on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:46:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What a silly thing to argue over (2.00 / 1)

Neither MI or FL is going to go to the convention with a full slate of delegates. The Rules and Bylaws Committee is made up of members whose states followed the rules and stuck to the schedule. The DNC rules for delegate selection lay out minimum penalties (50% of the delegation), and that's likely what you'll see enforced. If you think they're going to reward the bad behavior of MI and FL by letting them slide...well, I've got a bridge to sell.


by bookish on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:19:06 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 3)

Drudge Report heading...

DEM RACE WAR!

I hope you are happy Hillary.

Way to play the media narrative.

I can't believe some people have the gall to defend her
strategy and make believe it's no what it seems to be.

It is, what it is.

I know this is out of place here but I am livid right now.


by cherrygarcia on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:23:51 PM EST

Never mind. (2.00 / 2)

If Obama was as desperate and divisive as Hillary, he would make an issue of her remark. But since the nomination is his anyway, he'll let them be swept into the dust bin of history.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:28:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 1)

I'm not concerned about punishing FL and MI any more. They've already been effectively shut out of the process for cheating and no states will try to pull such stunts in the future (near, at least).

The important thing now is to get them back into the fold in a way that doesn't corrupt the outcome as decided by voters in states which followed the rules.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:24:31 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Just seat the delegations, Obama shouldn't even care since its "over" anyway right?


by rossinatl on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:28:29 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

The delegations can't be "just seated" since the whole point was to discourage claim jumping in the future, and the outcomes in those states were not fair nor truly indicative.

You can't clean up spilled milk by putting it back in the bottle.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:41:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Florida, and Michigan getting their delegates seated will not change the math today on how many delegates are needed to win the nomination.  If Obama sews up the nomination on 20 May based on the legitimate states, I don't think that Michigan and Florida will change that.  The nomination will be sewn up on 20 May.  On 31 May 08 the Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated, but they won't count towards making a difference in who won the nominaiton based on their illegitimacy of breaking the rules.


by Spanky on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:41:05 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

So Michigan's 'solution' involves a full delegation despite knowingly breaking the rules.  How surprising.

The only solution that makes sense is to change each Michigan and Florida delegate vote, both pledged and super, to a half-vote.  Assign Florida on the basis of the previous results, assign Michigan with Obama receiving the uncommitted total, let the supers pick who they will.

I'm fairly sure this is what will end up happening.  


by Wayward Son on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:45:27 PM EST

Obama supporter says please seat them (none / 0)

I pray that Obama just ends it by going with this plan. It sounds great, and would just end this divisive debate.

When I observe people trying to claim an election with only one person on the ballot is fair,

I get upset and sad

because I value fair and honest elections where all folks have an equal shot

therefore, I request that Hillary supporters and Obama supporters accept this more fair compromise.


by alectimmerman on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:47:54 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 0)

Any solution to resolve Michigan and Florida should not give any votes at all to superdelegates in those states. They caused this problem in the first place and it was their failure of leadership that prevented it from being resolved.


Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.
by Obama Independent on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:50:10 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Sounds like a fair solution. It acknowleges Clinton's "victory" on a practical level (+10 delegates) but does provide her with a substantive bump that would alter the vote without it.


by wasder on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:52:17 PM EST

BREAKING: Clinton rejects plan (none / 0)

Clinton has rejected this latest plan for seating the MI delegates because it "does not honor the 600,000 votes that were cast in Michigan's January primary." It looks like Clinton wants the votes allocated exactly as they were polled.

Makes sense.


Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America
by Zeitgeist9000 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:55:41 PM EST

so obama should get nothing? (none / 0)

or does he at least get to keep the undecideds for himself?


by ab03 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:58:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING: Clinton rejects plan (none / 0)

But why should they be counted as voted? Obama gets 0 votes is somehow with the will of the people?

No penalty then? So primaries whenever we want from now on?

Absurd. She only uses the rules when they are in her favor.


If you are not voting Obama, please let me know so I can replace your sorry ass with another new voter.
by Darknesse on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:03:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

who cares? (none / 0)

it's not like it's a delegate total, it's just a metric to sway supers - like asking them to look at random exit polls or gallup polls.  the delegate situation and the pop vote have nothing to do with each other


by ab03 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:57:51 PM EST

I think Clinton supporters (none / 0)

need to acknowledge that the party simply has to punish MI and FL for breaking the rules.  If MI and FL are not punished, 2012 will be a disaster.  Why wouldn't every state just ignore the party at that point?  

I agree that seating none of their delegates is pretty harsh and so I can see the reason to offer a compromise where they are counted at 50% value or whatever. But any plan that seats the entire FL and MI delegations as is seems to me to be a non-starter.  Pushing for that is a fairly poor faith suggestion by the Clinton campaign and to me just seems like an artificial way to keep the campaign going.  


by snaktime on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:14:21 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

The more I think about it, the less I am beginning to care.

It's all about convincing superdelegates now.  I'm convinced there is nothing, no twisting of unreliable metrics that will give the Clinton campaign the nomination.


You haven't seen impatient until you've seen a monkey waiting for a donut.
by bjones on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:17:45 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

well it was Clinton who is dis-enfranchising Michigan now:

Camp Hillary is rejecting the new plan floated today by Michigan Dems that would seat the delegation by awarding 69 delegates to Hillary and 59 to Obama.

Hillary spokesperson Isaac Baker emails over this:

   "This proposal does not honor the 600,000 votes that were cast in Michigan's January primary. Those votes must be counted."

This is hardly surprising, since the proposal gives Hillary a 10 delegate margin -- a significant cut from the 18-delegate margin of victory she enjoyed over "uncommitted" (Obama wasn't on the ballot) in the Michigan primary.

   * print
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PERMALINK | COMMENTS (17) | RECOMMEND THIS
TOPICS: Clinton, MI-Pres, Obama

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/2008/05/hillary_campaign_says_no _to_ne.php


"I am standing with Barack Obama to say, `Yes, we can!'" Hillary Clinton 6/7/08
by feliks on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:34:44 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Give it to her.  Give her Florida as well.  Give her Puerto Rico early.  It does not matter.

After her latest "white people" comment, the Supers are going to drop her like a greased watermellon.


by rf7777 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:34:59 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (2.00 / 0)

Its amazingly simple. MI and FL knowingly went against the DNC and knew they would be punished for it, they did it anyway and were punished. Both Obama and Clinton agreed to the punishment. Either candidate changing their position now should be scrutinized and called out for what it is, an attempt change the rules mid-game, it simply is not a fair way to play.

As for the voters in MI and FL they will have the right in the next election cycle to hold those who screwed up the vote for their state accountable.


by montana36 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:38:15 PM EST

F*** the MI, FL Superdelegates (none / 0)

If anyone should be penalized, it's them.  If anyone should have been working overtime to make sure the MI and FL Dems stayed within the rules, it was them.

In both states, they seem to have barely tried to do so.

So nuts to them.  However MI's and FL's delegates are allocated, penalized, or whatever, NO MI/FL SUPERDELEGATES should have a vote at the convention.  Period.


by RT on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:03:25 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Here's the inherent problem with seating MI and FL. The DNC came up with a system and a state primary timeline. The states were told when they would have their primaries and were told they would be penalized if they moved them up. Primaries are not the GE. Primary rules are set by the parties. So those rules must be enforceable or you have chaos. Mi and FL decided to play chicken and lost.

Now suppose the DNC says OK just kidding we'll seat you and count your votes. Where are we? Back to chaos, because the states will figure the rules are meaningless.

The disenfranchisement argument is also weak since this is a primary and not a GE. Voters can only be legitimately and constitutionally called disenfranchised from a election run by state or federal entity, not by a party.

Now if all the parties want to get together and come up with a fair an equitable solution that still keeps in place some penalty to these states fine.

What is not fine is saying oh never mind rules who needs rules.

And lets face it Hillary is fighting so hard for these not out of some great moral belief to have all the votes count. Do you seriously think had she wrapped it up on Feb 5th like she thought she would she would be making this pitch. I seriously doubt it. And the yells from her supporters on this issue I find equally disingenuous. You are not doing this out of moral outrage, you are doing to try and get your candidate the nomination. I understand that and fine, but at least be honest with yourselves.

I am also sure if the shoe was on the other foot The Obama camp would be making the same pleas.


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:10:37 PM EST

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

She should accept it.

Seating MI's supers is huge for Clinton because the ruling from last year excludes them and they lean Hillary.

Although it's not right for Obama to pretend he got votes and delegates from a state that he voluntarily sacrificed, this is more a matter of perception.  The compromise to Hillary is more fair than I would have expected.

Seriously, whatever deficit she'd have in delegates from this MI compromise, her goal should be to make up for it by racking up big margins in WV, KY, and PR.  She's going to have more political capital after those states vote.  Then, she could take her argument to the supers.

Rejecting this damages her credibility.

SOMETIMES I WISH I WAS HER CAMPAIGN MANAGER!!!

Argh.


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:23:56 PM EST

Agreed...now she is the one disenfranchising MI (none / 0)

If she really cares about seating them then she approve the plan that the Michigan officials overwhelmingly agreed to.


by netgui68 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 05:07:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Resolving Michigan (none / 0)

Clinton won 55% of the vote in Michigan, which translates to 70 delegates.  This is exactly the amount offered to her in this proposal and she declines it?

Very unfortunate.


by RussTC3 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 05:11:13 PM EST

No Supers (none / 0)

At this point I dont care about the resolution for pledged delegates.  There will have to be a compromise and whatever that compromise is it wont have an impact on the end game.

But whatever that compromise is Micihgan should get NO super delegates period.  And Id love that to apply to at least a few primary election cycles in the futute.

The fault of Michigan being where it is rests 100% with them.  Let me repeat that - Michigan is no ones fault but Michigans super delegates - not the DNC's fault, not Clintons fault and not Obamas fault.  Michigan screwed this up and then left a terrible mess for the parents to clean up later.  Screw Michigan super delegates.

They have a history of doing this, playing chicken with the calendar and were warned repeatedly by everyone of the consequences.  Yet they still played and now they should rightfully get smited.

So whatever on the pledged delegates - reward the common folk if you will - but no supers.  Period.

Rant over.


by pattonbt on Thu May 08, 2008 at 07:53:24 PM EST


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