What happened?

Clinton won Indiana by a tad, and Obama won North Carolina by a wide margin, which is not what the poll of polls showed would happen. Usually, when this sort of break occurs, it's due to some sort of demographical shift that occurred. Looking at the results of Indiana, and comparing the exit polls of OH voters with IN voters, here's a few things that jumped out:


  • Black voters supported Obama by 87% in OH, and by 90% in IN.

  • White voters supported Obama by 34% in OH, and by 40% in IN.

  • White Democrats moved from Clinton leading by 43% in OH, to Clinton leading by 28% in IN.

  • Liberal voters moved from Clinton leading by 7% in OH to Obama leading by 14% in IN.

  • Conservative voters moved from Obama leading by 5% in OH to Clinton leading by 24% in IN.

In short, for Indiana, Clinton's projecting of a more GE favorable image (she's risen nationally in the polls in recent weeks) appears to have cost her among the liberal voters. This also explains why the polls were so wrong, especially SUSA. Clinton didn't gain the 21% of black voters that they polled, and they polled Clinton winning among liberals by a 53-44 margin, off by 23 percent. This is most likely due to the 'gas tax' issue. Though she had a 'divide and conquor' frame of the issue that work well for a GE against a Republican, in a Democratic primary, it allowed Obama to squeeze her from the liberal viewpoint.

As for North Carolina, it just comes down to the divide of racial voting that Clinton could not overcome, even if she did dent into Obama a bit. Take a look at Obama's totals of GA, VA, and NC:

                Black (30%)   White (61%)
Georgia         88           43

                Black (30%)  White  (61%)
Virginia        90           52

                Black (34%)  White  (62%)
North Carolina  91           37
Compared to neighboring states, with similar population breakdowns, there has been a drop-off of white support for Obama, but there's been no in-roads by Clinton among black voters. Obama won GA by 61-26 and VA by 64-35, so a 56-42 margin in NC, though marginally better than past results, was no where near where where the poll of polls showed the contest would wind up.

As for Clinton's chances going ahead, they are minimal. I gave about a 10% shot after she won TX & OH, and upped that to 15% after her PA win, and around 20% a week ago. Now, it's slimmer than ever before. There's little doubt that, considering any marker, Obama is on the path to the nomination, now more than ever. Congrats to all his supporters on a good night.

I doubt that Clinton will drop out though. She'll stay in and continue to fight for every delegate. The thinking being, who knows what happens between now and the convention, every delegate counts. She'll rack up a victory in West Virginia in a week, and that'll bring up all the media chatter bugs talking about how Obama doesn't appeal to some regions. She'll win in KY and will try and win OR. Then we'll have the delegate showdown at the end of the month over MI & FL-- that'll be the most contentious. And then its on to few remaining states, PR, where Clinton will likely win, and MT & SD, where Obama will likely win.



Display:


Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

poblano has been the best "poll" of sorts because he looks purely at how demographics have voted in the past.

By looking at his model vs. actual results, there was absolutely no demographic shift to be seen. Demographic shifts would have made his results look crazy (which is what I thought they originally were).

It seems that the polls just got it wrong.


!
by alex100 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:39:27 AM EST

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

It's not a poll, but regression analysis. If thats all there were to polling, it'd not be looked at; but yes, there were demographic shifts, as blogged above, thats why there was a different result.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:58:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

If these exit polls are wrong on their top number, why do we take the internals at face value when they're even smaller sample sizes?


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:17:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

B/c the pollsters alter the results based on the actual results of the contest.  The true problem w/ exit polls though is that they miss the sizable early vote, so until they get those actual results they are always off.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:27:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

aren't they always off? despite early voting or not?


!
by alex100 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:44:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

of course it's not a poll but he's consistently outperformed the CW and actual polls by just breaking down demographics.

it "might not be looked at" but it has determined outcomes better then SUSA or Rasmussen can and he's been infinite times better at predicting outcomes then any blogger I've ever seen. Why? because he's abandoned traditional methodology in favor of his own statistical breakdowns.

it's definitely something to look at moving forward.


!
by alex100 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:42:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Come on, we all knew that Clinton... (1.50 / 2)

wasn't black enough to win North Carolina.

The party and voting is splitting along racial lines.

Oh goody.


It's an election, not an auction.
by cosbo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:42:04 AM EST

Re: Come on, we all knew that Clinton... (2.00 / 4)

You could also say it's splitting along gender lines, or certainly along age lines. Clinton lost Indiana among those under 65.

Moreover, her margin in Indiana is possibly entirely explained by the Operation Chaos effect.

Do African-Americans support Obama. Sure. That's a good thing going into the general. A great GOTV tool in the AA community. We also get to harness the enthusiasm of the youth vote, which is great. There are definitely constituencies that we need to bring back into the fold, but it should be doable, especially when you look at McCain. I see the glass not as half empty, but as 90% full.


Your old role is rapidly aging. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times they are a changing.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:50:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on, we all knew that Clinton... (none / 0)

It's 40% full.  McCain will have the other 60%.


by Montague on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:51:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

your opening line is out of line. (2.00 / 5)


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:54:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Still true. (none / 0)


It's an election, not an auction.
by cosbo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:21:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No. I don't think a black person has ever (none / 0)

won statewide in North Carolina.  It's not that she wasn't black enough.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:28:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That will be true in the fall. (2.00 / 1)

Right now it's pretty much Democrats who voted, which from what I understand is not a majority of the electorate there.


It's an election, not an auction.
by cosbo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:39:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Primaries, as well. (none / 0)


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:46:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Primaries, as well. (2.00 / 1)

Harvey Gannt won two statewide primaries for the US Senate and Ralph Campbell was a long time winner for statewide auditor elections. Nevertheless, I don't agree with cosbo's initial comment. Obama has won the white vote in numerous states including Wisconsin and actually did better among white voters in NC than he has done in other states. Furthermore, all these correlations of voter demographics to election outcomes are getting so tiresome. Just because you can spot a correlation does not prove causation in a subsequent election. The dynamics of McCain vs. Obama in NC will be different.


Speak out for the education our children deserve!
by jeffbinnc on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:42:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sorry for the ignorance of NC electoral history... (none / 0)

I didn't mean to malign the state (and I don't thin you thought that I did, but I just wanted to confirm it).  I think I would still be right in saying that the state has never voted for an AA in a presidential primary, right?  Or did Jesse Jackson win the state?


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:58:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sorry for the ignorance of NC electoral histor (none / 0)

No offense taken. And you're right about presidential primaries. JJ lost to Gore but not by much.


Speak out for the education our children deserve!
by jeffbinnc on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:03:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on, we all knew that Clinton... (2.00 / 5)

The deep denial of HRC supporters is entertaining.

Outside observers saw it that HRC's surrogates, like Geraldine Ferraro, were deliberately trying to polarize the Dem voters along racial lines.

It's the type of politics that usually works. And there are more "White" Dems than Black.

When the Obama supporters and more objective observers called out Clinton's tactics, the HRC supporters whined that Obama was playing the race card.

And then they whined some more that Blacks moved away from Clinton and toward Obama.

The denial has graduated from being infuriating to pathetic.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:09:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on, we all knew that Clinton... (none / 0)

Glad you're entertained.  Because a lot of us won't be voting for Obama in November.  I hope you find that entertaining as well.


by Montague on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:53:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why? (none / 0)

I don't understand this "not voting for Obama" line from any Democrat.

What do you like about McCain:  100 more years in Iraq?  Bush's health care plan?  Making the tax cuts for the wealthy permanent?  More legislation written by lobbyists for major corporations?  More Roberts and Alitos on the Court?

If you are not voting for the nominee in the fall, I wonder if you are really a Democrat.


by MoDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:05:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why? (none / 0)

I won't vote for McCain.

Don't insult me with your stupid line about whether I'm really a Democrat.  Ask why your favored candidate is willing to look at partial privatization of Social Security.  Ask him why, in this day and age, he couldn't even apologize properly for the anti-gay hate on offer at his own event, much less stop it from happening in the first place.  Ask why he plays divisive politics.

Here is the fact: If McCain is president, the Democratic Congress will fight him (not hard enough - they have been shown to be chicken).  If Obama is president and makes nice with Rethugs and helps them privatize SS, then the Dems will feel obligated to come along.

Obama has no ability to do much more than McCain about ending the Iraq debacle.  McCain will not have the power to make the tax cuts permanent if Congress goes against him.  Obama is having lovefests with lobbyists already, so I don't see why you think that would be any different.


by Montague on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:16:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why? (none / 0)

On supporting gays.  Did you hear Obama in a black church talk about the homophobia in the black community?  I missed the occasion when Clinton told her core supporters they were wrong on anything.

The nomination is essentially over, so I don't think we should engage in whose politics were more divisive.  Just one observation: Obama never said he and McCain had passed some mythical test to be commander-in-chief and he was uncertain whether Clinton had.  

If you want four more years of the same, vote for McCain or don't do anything.  Personally, I don't want four more years of the same.  

This election is going to be very, very ugly in the fall.  And, it would be just as ugly if Clinton had been the nominee.  It will require ALL real Democrats to support the nominee and work for that nominee.  We have a chance for a truly transformative election like 1932 or 1964, but not if we are not unified.  


by MoDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:24:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why? (none / 0)

YES, I heard him.  Not good enough.  

As for the CIC comment, that's not discriminatory.  I hope you understand the difference.

In 2012, I look forward to entirely new candidates on the Dem side after we live through four years of McCain.  

Of course the campaign will be ugly.  The difference is, I would have worked to get Hillary elected.

If I hear that word "transformative" one more time I will puke.  I am an intellectual skeptic, not the kind of person who is easily swayed by a nice speech.


by Montague on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:29:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on, we all knew that Clinton... (2.00 / 1)

Don't be a racist ass.


Unable to rec or rate
Still supporting Obama
Still not putting up with "preening" posts
by jaiwithani on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:12:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Utter crap. (2.00 / 3)

What a pack of terrible, ignorant lies.


John McCain, maverick
by lojasmo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:24:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on, we all knew that Clinton... (2.00 / 2)

Not only is this post thinly veiled bigotry, it's also factually wrong. Obama won the black vote not because of charges of racism but because he won Iowa and because Clinton stopped trying to win black voters. When black people saw that whites would vote for Obama, they took him seriously.

What hurt Hillary was her refusal to even pretend to try and get the black vote back. Obama could have won 70-30 among blacks after IA and would have lost MO and done much worse in GA, LA, MS, NC, SC and PA. OH would have been a far greater margin. But by refusing to campaign for black votes, Clinton ceded 90% of the black vote to Obama.


by elrod on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:27:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Come on, we all knew that Clinton... (2.00 / 1)

If I could get my ability to rate posts back, I could help hide race-baiting crap like this.  Of course, since no one's willing to tell me why my ability to rate posts was yanked, or even respond to my e-mails about it, I guess I'll never get it back.


I'm only a click away
by juliewolf on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:12:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

HRC for the Supreme Court!

That would be great.  I would love to hear here sparing with Roberts...
If The Big O would offer her that, think she would take it?


by gil44 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:45:04 AM EST

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 2)

I'm not a huge fan of that idea.

I'd like somebody who's a stronger progressive.  She's a little too pro-corporation for my tastes, especially when we've got so many corporate-based problems to deal with nowadays.

I think she's fine as a Senator.  Maybe some more committee chairpersonships or something, potentially majority leader if she can stop talking about killing brown people.


by Capt America on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:49:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Also (2.00 / 1)

Someone who's spent some time as a federal circuit court judge, please. We need to set a good example by nominating experienced, non-political people to these offices. This is also why Edwards should absolutely NOT be an Attorney General.


by Hatch on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:09:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also (none / 0)

I couldn't disagree with you more.  The federal courts, and especially the Supreme Court, would benefit from a different perspective.  Traditionally, former elected officials were often elevated to the Court.  I would love to see it happen again, whether that means Senator Clinton or someone else.  


by HSTruman on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:14:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also (none / 0)

I also disagree, there is no reason a S.C. justice has to come from the appellate courts.  I am a lawyer and I think some of the S.C.'s worst decisions are partly due to their in-the-clouds, very unpractical legalistic approach to decisions.


by snaktime on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:46:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Could not disagree more (2.00 / 1)

Your well-meaning proposal could be described as unilateral disarmament vis-a-vis the judiciary.

They nominate ideologically driven individuals and you would have us "set an example" by appointing politically neutered circuit court judges.  To be successful, setting an example requires a target audience that is open to change given the example.  There is no evidence, there is less than no evidence, that the GOPers are open to change on their core issue of court-packing.

We need to fight back, and not just with corporate-leaning justices with somewhat more support for due process and reproductive rights.  We need more than anything, in my opinion, a labor law specialist, a la Brennan, or a stronger due process rights advocate than Bader Ginsburg on the court if only to mitigate the damage from the Roberts and Alito appointments.

Your advice, if I understand it correctly, would lock in their advantage.

Regarding Edwards, I think it is no problem to appoint ideologically driven AGs and I think he would make a fantastic AG that would undo some of the damage of the last eight years.  The problem is not having a veiwpoint, the proplem is corruption, nepotism, and biased enforcement of the law.  Are you suggesting these characteristics apply to Edwards, because if you are I strongly disagree.


"We live entangled in webs of endless deceit, often self-deceit, but with a little honest effort, it is possible to extricate ourselves from them". -- NC
by Trond Jacobsen on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:03:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Could not disagree more (none / 0)

I have no doubt that she would be a truly excellent justice.  Not my first choice, but I would accept it as means for her to concede.  She may need something for her pride and we need her support to win.  It's unusual nor untoward.  


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:03:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

HRC Constitutional philosophy (none / 0)

HRC is way to far in the direction that the legislative branch should show deference to the executive branch.

From the point of view of restoring Constitutional rights stripped by the Bush administration there's hardly any Dem who would be a scarier nominee from my point of view.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:16:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

If she wants the Court, she's earned it.  I don't agree with her either, but we don't need to be so disapproving in victory.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:33:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

I don't feel that she's "earned" a lifetime appointment to what is quickly becoming the second most powerful branch of government in the country.  She's not progressive enough to balance out Alito and Roberts, we need a true liberal, not a centrist.

Oh, and I'm not being disapproving in victory, I'm being disapproving in general.  She's a right-leaning DLC Democrat.  I'd prefer if we could send those types the way of the dixie-crats, and I always have.  Her losing the nomination didn't change a thing.


by Capt America on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:54:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

she wouldn't be my first choice (hello, edwards). but there will more than likely be more than one in obama's first term, and after he stacks one or two young progressives on there, hillary is by no means a bad choice. i actually think that, freed from her political ambitions, she's probably more liberal than we think.


by jbill on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:39:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

I'm no Hillary fan, but maybe if she wasn't trying to get votes she'd be more progressive.  I agree she hasn't "earned" it.  It's not like she's been some champion in the courts or anything.  But I mean... it's not a horrible idea.  Honestly, I just don't want her to be VP. So I'd be happy with her in the Sup Court.


John McCain believes "Women shouldn't have a choice."
by jturn17 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:55:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No on earns a Supreme Court seat... (none / 0)

by being a strong candidate.  It's not something that should be given out as a reward for one's political deeds.


I'm only a click away
by juliewolf on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:14:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

People have in the past... (none / 0)

read John Marshall.  If she needs this to concede, I see no point denying her.  She is not my first choice, but she certainly wouldn't be my last.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:05:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: People have in the past... (none / 0)

Give her a strong cabinet position or majority leader.  She shouldn't be on the Supreme Court.  


I'm only a click away
by juliewolf on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:35:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We'll have to agree to disagree. (none / 0)


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:44:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We'll have to agree to disagree. (2.00 / 1)

Okay, we can agree to disagree, but do we have to agree on that?


I'm only a click away
by juliewolf on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:09:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 2)

She's too old.  That's not ageism!  I just want someone around 40 years old that will be there for generations.  Plus, she hasn't practiced any constitutional law.


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:16:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

I used to think she would be an incredible Justice, but I would want someone who was anti death penalty on the court now, and she emphatically is not.  Neither are Bill's two appointees.  Georgia just executed a prisoner last night following the Court's refusal to act against lethal injection.  Lives are in the balance and I would like someone who could bring our country into the modern age on this one.


by mady on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:36:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

The supreme court is not a reward or something you earn by running a good political campaign.

The job of supreme court justices is to interpret and apply the constitution. That is their one and only job. Sure they do this job with a gloss of their political beliefs. But that is the job description.

I'm not sure Clinton is the pest person to be interpreting the constitution.


by poserM on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:43:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

I'm rather amused at all this concerned job hunting going on with Hillary Clinton. The need to find the lady a job is fascinating. What is it? Guilt or anxiety?


by superetendar on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:52:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Potential necessity.

Her hardcore partisans are going to want something for their trouble.  While we here on the blogosphere won't probably have any say in what that is, we can still speculate.


by Capt America on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:56:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 4)

I think it is notable that the over 60 crowd seems to be Clinton's saving grace.  Her lead in white voters comes from that group.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:45:45 AM EST

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 2)

What does Clinton gain by staying in?  

Aside from hoping for a political or physical disaster involving the presumptive nominee I really don't understand what she hopes to gain.  This is now about psychology, not politics.  It's time for a delegation headed by Al Gore (others might inclide Pelosi, Reid, Mitchell, Carter, Edwards, Biden, Nunn) to have a visit with the Clintons.  She has hit her stride as a candidate.  I think she was looking & talking great on the stump.  Too bad the closing message was an anti-enviroinmental pander to yesterday, not a message about the future.


by howardpark on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:49:43 AM EST

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 4)

Let her stay in.  It's done.  Let's just open up to the Clinton supporters and welcome them behind our nominee.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:37:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Great attitude.... (2.00 / 2)

I see it as over at this point-last night pretty much cemented that. That knowledge is very tough for a lot of people so I think it would be beneficial if Obama supporters opened their arms and tamped down the mean and snarky.

I am a realist who had been leaning Clinton because I had concerns about Obama in the GE-I still do but clearly the job will be to work on overcoming those concerns. I still say she doesn't have to drop out-democracy doesn't demand it, but she has an infinitesimal chance of being the nominee.


berkshiretrueblue Commited to helping elect a Democrat as President "Hypocrisy: prejudice with a halo" Ambroise Bierce
by berkshiretrueblue on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:59:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The disaster idea doesn't work (2.00 / 2)

Clinton could suspend her campaign today and if Obama self-destructed she'd be the nominee. That's not it.


Your old role is rapidly aging. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times they are a changing.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:52:49 AM EST

Re: The disaster idea doesn't work (2.00 / 1)

There is still a path, via counting MI and FL. That's anathema to Obama supporters, but has been her stance to count the votes as is. Doing that makes it a much different contest.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:55:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The disaster idea doesn't work (none / 0)

Can't Obama seat Michigan and Florida now...he just cannot seat Michigan 92-1?


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:56:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerome, the math doesn't work (2.00 / 4)

Even if you count MI and FL she still comes up short, and it's highly unlikely that MI and FL will be counted as is without any penalty. Far more likely is that they lose half their delegates, or something like that. It's over my friend.


Your old role is rapidly aging. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times they are a changing.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:04:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome, the math doesn't work (1.00 / 2)

They will both be FULLY seated and then IGNORED by the Super Delegates regardless if they put HRC ahead or not.

As a not-so-wise pundit said - "After 300 years in this country, for the Dem Party to deny an African American the nomination after he finally wins the jackpot would not be wise".

So FL & MI will be just Token delegates in the end.


by BarackIs44 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:07:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not Ignored (none / 0)

They don't have to be ignored by the SDs. As Jerome says, there's a path via Michigan and Florida. But it's not a realistic path, at all. I now expect the delegations to be seated in full, and for Obama to get most if not all of the unpledged delegates from MI.


by Hatch on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:11:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What path? (none / 0)

Show me the numbers. I see no path.


Your old role is rapidly aging. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times they are a changing.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:18:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Path... (none / 0)

The path is Obama not getting any of the undeclared delegates from Michigan.

Like I said, it's an extremely unrealistic path.


by Hatch on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:26:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No. Show me the numbers. (none / 0)

I don't think that works.


Your old role is rapidly aging. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times they are a changing.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:33:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not Ignored (none / 0)

Yeah, I think they'll agree to seat them with Obama getting all the undeclared, but only after he's gotten enough supers that that would put him over the top.


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:22:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Who the hell are you to TR Jerome... (none / 0)

Armstrong when he is being conciliatory and gracious in defeat?  This man is a hero of the progressive movement.  He's been fighting the battles for progressives throughout this decade when Bush was rated at 91%.  He choose his candidate and I've questioned his tactics, but not his motives.

What coward you are as well to not even tell him why.  I hope others will join me in this.  You should adjust and I will then consider doing the same.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who the hell are you to TR Jerome... (none / 0)

is he above reproach? Did I TR a God? will I be a newt by sundown? I'm not sure what your beef is.

I went back and posted my reason. He is a cheerleader for an ugly mob at this point and I expect a bit more from him (other than a banning of course)


by BarackIs44 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:11:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No, but you don't TR a person whose conceding... (none / 0)

it's just tactless.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:56:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome, the math doesn't work (none / 0)

Is it all about entitlement?  That's not the way to win the GE.  

Neither Clinton nor Obama has won the jackpot yet, and neither CAN win it prior to the convention.  So I could turn it around on you and say that the party had best not deny the nomination to the woman who finally wins the jackpot.


by Montague on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:58:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jerome, the math doesn't work (none / 0)

Let us know when that woman comes along.


by KyleJRM on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:45:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The disaster idea doesn't work (none / 0)

Yeah, but 1) we know that it isn't going to happen (meaning they won't be seated as is)... Reality is at the least Obama has SOME (I believe its 37) of those Michigan Delegates making it a heck of a lot harder.  And thats a BEST CASE for Clinton... My guess is she stays in, the SDs throw it to Obama, Obama is forced to take her as VP and at that point, the Rules committee splits it 50-50.


by yitbos96bb on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:13:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

While I don't think she needs to drop out... (2.00 / 2)

Nobody is going to "force" Obama to take Clinton as VP.  He's writing his own ticket by this point.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:22:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: While I don't think she needs to drop out... (none / 0)

Yeah, technically. But as much as I have been resistant to the idea for a long time, last night I had a change of heart. I think Hillary has generated her own energy that we'd be stupid to squander. And though I don't believe that anywhere close to the number of Hillary voters who claim they won't vote for Obama if he's the nominee, will actually follow through, I do think that even a fraction of that could hurt Obama seriously in key states. I think there's about a 75% chance he picks her.


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:25:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama picking HRC as VP (2.00 / 1)

I think it would make Obama look weak and tarnish his image as the candidate of "change".

Also, she kinda burned her bridges. Actions have consequences.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:31:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I see your point, but... (2.00 / 1)

I do think that it would harm Obama's percentages with independants and disaffected Republicans.  I suspect that Clinton isn't going to be getting as favorable treatment from Limbaugh, Coulter, and O'Reilly in the general election.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:36:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The disaster idea doesn't work (2.00 / 1)

I see the FL and MI issue as the reason she should not wihdrawl yet.  We need to find a compromise on that.  That may require the SDs swinging hard enough to the nominee (likely Obama) to make seating their delegations possible without changing the result.  It is going to take time to work that out, and her supporters will feel like she was 'forced out' of the race if she bows out before that.

Jerome, thanks for your work over here at MyDD.  I know it must not be easy managing/moderating a forum like this during the 'silly season', trying to keep the political pie-fight from getting out of hand.  You've done an amazing job.  I've enjoyed the different perspective I find here compaired to DKos, and I'm saying that as an Obama supporter.

Peace


by protothad on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:20:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The disaster idea doesn't work (2.00 / 1)

No compromise needed... She still loses even with the states counted as is...  The issue will be settled at the end of the month...  I wish we had a revote in MI, but ce la vie.  The delegates will be seated somehow, some way, that is fair to everyone.


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:24:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The disaster idea doesn't work (2.00 / 1)

By the way - this is slightly off topic, but I'm really looking forward to being able to post to the liberalblogosphere blogs without the addendum "and I am an Obama supporter" :-).

And I'm saying that as a Democrat!


by Exhausted Pennsylvanian on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:58:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The disaster idea doesn't work (2.00 / 3)

For me, the strongest argument that Hillary had was the making the electability / non-electability case to the SDs.  As a HRC supporter, my gut tells me that she has lost this argument, unfortunately.

I had hoped she'd be within 5 or 6 in NC and would win IN by 9 to 12. Wow, was I wrong, and my intestinal barometer says the campaign has turned.


by sarany on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:23:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The disaster idea doesn't work (2.00 / 2)

I should add that I agree with some that she should stay in, but turn her attention to exposing McCain's vulnerabilities, and then choose her timing and bow out gracefully.


by sarany on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:26:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No there isn't (2.00 / 2)

Jerome, though I understand you know lots more than I do about all things wonk....there is no path to the presidency for Clinton that doesn't sunder the party.

There may be a minute possibility for clinton to get the nomination, it would come at a cost too great to bear.


John McCain, maverick
by lojasmo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:30:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The disaster idea doesn't work (2.00 / 1)

She cannot win a national election by counting those votes "as is" though.  There needs to be some level of compromise, and at this point any commpromise at all leaves her short.  


by mady on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:37:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thank you, Jerome. (none / 0)

I know that you came to Clinton as a last resort (after Edwards), but you were forceful in her defense.  I know it must be difficult to say and I'm glad that we are nearly past these primary wars.  We're going to kill in this election and grabing vastly larger majorities in the House and the Senate and the WH.  And I'm glad that we can all be along for the ride.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:57:20 AM EST

Re: Thank you, Jerome. (2.00 / 2)

The last resort is Obama.... he's been as far back as possible in the choosing, but keeps knocking off my alternatives.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:59:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank you, Jerome. (2.00 / 1)

Who knew you were such a Mike Gravel fan.


by chrispy on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:02:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

As For Clinton (2.00 / 4)

I hesitate to criticize Clinton anymore, but seriously... where would SHE be without the "Washington establishment" you're decrying? Her superdelegate lead comes almost entirely from unelected DNC members who are accountable to absolutely no one. They're the most entrenched establishment people you can possibly imagine.

Where would she be without "the media" that fanned the flames of all these stupid Obama scandals and gaffes and kept her in the race for the past two months? At home in Chappaqua, probably.


by Hatch on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:16:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank you, Jerome. (2.00 / 4)

"The hate runs strong with this one.  Soon I will turn him to the dark side." -- JSM


"I'll bite your legs off!" -- HRC 2008!
by username3 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:18:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't get it (2.00 / 1)

What's your beef with Obama?

It doesn't seem logical.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:20:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't get it (none / 0)

Obama's not a DLC candidate.


by The Animal on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:41:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't get it (none / 0)

He's too much like Bush.


by Montague on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:08:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank you, Jerome. (none / 0)

You haven't been around the past couple of months.  The media has tried to destroy Obama...  But, even if you are correct, wouldn't it be nice to have someone that the media actually likes?


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:22:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm sorry that person TR'd you... (none / 0)

that was tactless.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:53:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm sorry that person TR'd you... (none / 0)

"The last resort is Obama"

that is tactless. It is high time to stop attacking the Democratic Nominee for President.

I would expect a so called progressive leader to know that he is cheerleading a damaging force for the party at this point.


by BarackIs44 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:10:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I've battling Jerome since before you... (none / 0)

came on the scene and for him acknowledge that she lost, is tough for him.  There is no insult in his coming to Obama as a last resort.  That was Jerome's choice.  He was wrong, but not inappropriate.  For you to attack person whose giving is sad.  Grow up.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:54:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank you, Jerome. (none / 0)

I'm a teetotaler.  No beer with Obama for me.  

You know nothing about the building of this movement.  Many of us became interested in Obama after his 2004 speech.  We learned more.  We read his books.  And we networked with each other.  I don't watch TV.  At all.  Most Obama supporters I know had their own path to supporting him, and it didn't involve drinking kool-aid or doing what the media told us to do.  


by nwgates on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:04:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank you, Jerome. (none / 0)

Jerome - now that the primary is effectively over, could you consider giving the many Obama supporters their reccing and rating rights back?


by interestedbystander on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:08:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank you, Jerome. (none / 0)

There are many Clinton supporters in that boat too.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:03:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank you, Jerome. (none / 0)

So that's a no then?


by interestedbystander on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:03:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank you, Jerome. (none / 0)

Maybe later.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:27:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She should stay in (2.00 / 2)

And I am saying that as an Obama supporter.  She owes it to her supporters and the remaining states to let the primaries conclude.  Of course both campaigns should now turn their focus onto beating McCain and on Dem party unity.  The SDs can put the nominee over the top enough to allow FL and MI to be seated as is or at least with some reasonable compromise delegation, and we can wind this thing down with the least amount of acrimony on all sides.  I'm not calling this thing 'over' until one of the nominees withdrawls (even if we suspect who that will be).  The SDs and the candidates themselves are smart enough to make the conclusion of this thing orderly.  We don't need to have a pie fight in the blogotubes trying to call the official end of it.

I commend the activists on both sides for working so hard, even if sometimes we let our passion run ahead of our ability to be polite.  Lets keep that passion alive for the general but focus it on taking back the whitehouse from the Republicans.

Peace


by protothad on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:58:09 AM EST

Re: She should stay in (none / 0)

As long as she keeps it civil, that's cool!  The nice thing about IN and NC is that the race ended on issues like the gas tax instead of personal attacks.  That's what a primary is supposed to be about!


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:21:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Maybe time to give it a rest? (2.00 / 2)

Your devotion is admirable, but I think you're losing sight of the bigger picture.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:25:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She should stay in (2.00 / 2)

Either show proof of that statement or get TRd. I watched CNN all night last night and NEVER saw that.


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:28:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No need. This is pain... (2.00 / 2)

being expressed in public over the internet.  There's no need to add to it.  Let's greet hatred with kindness.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:01:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm sorry you feel that way (2.00 / 1)

I know some Obama supporters have been over the line, but really, most of us really respect HRC and all she has done for the Democratic party and our nation... we just like Obama's stand on various issues better.  For me, it was his stand on the 50 state strategy and his grass roots organizing skill that put him over the top in making up my mind between these two great candidates.

As for Obama being an empty suite, I found that his record of accomplishment is rather respectible for someone who has been on the political scene such a comparitively short amount of time.  I particularly like what he has done in the area of government accountability and transparency.  His bill on campaign finance reform even gives him something to stack up against McCain's signature accomplishment.

I hope that, assuming he really is the nominee, you will give him a second look and conclude at the very least that he is a much better choice than McCain.  I hope we can at least count on your vote in November.

Peace


by protothad on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:37:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She should stay in (none / 0)

"Obama made Race a big factor in the primary - falsely accusing the Clintons as racists and waging a campaign based on vitriol and hatemongering"

Were we watching the same campaign. His candidacy wasn't perfect, but the last words I would attach to it would be "vitriol" and "hatemongering"


by jbill on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:56:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 2)

Thanks... and you are right... she won't drop out now... She'll stay in until the last primary... at this point, she might as well... 1) You never know what will happen... I mean we might get a video of Obama with an underage person or something like that... so it doesn't hurt her to stay.

2) As KOS points out, she will probably win Kentucky and WV even if she leave the race, which will hurt Obama.   Better for her to be in it.  

However, the SDs are going to start getting off the fence.  If not now, then after Oregon.  


by yitbos96bb on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:00:13 AM EST

NObama bumper stickers can be found here! (1.00 / 9)

http://www.nobama.com/

We just ordered ours!


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:01:27 AM EST

Re: NObama bumper stickers can be found here! (2.00 / 3)

It is over...it is time to united.  Why would you promote this kind of Crap?  Do you like McCain's war or McCain's plan to bankrupt our economy more?


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:03:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama has "brought in" as many as... (2.00 / 0)

he is driving out.  You boyz refuse to notice the droves of Dems who will not vote for your guy...and will be leaving the Dem party.

No.  Obama.  Ever.


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:06:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has "brought in" as many as... (2.00 / 2)

I'm sorry I fail to see how you are doing anything good here.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:09:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I didn't realize that "doing good" was (1.00 / 1)

a requirement to be here.

Oh, sorry, I haven't had any Kool-Aid this morning.
Silly me.


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:24:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If you're not "doing good"... (2.00 / 1)

What is your motivation if you're not interested in the best thing for the most people?


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:27:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I didn't realize tha (none / 0)

Glad to see you admit you are not "doing good"


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:39:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Did you notice that "doing good" (none / 0)

was in "  "  - as in the Obamaphile Definition of doing good.

I always do good - you may not like it, but that's tough luck.


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:22:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has "brought in" as many as... (none / 0)

Coyote is face down in a creek of his own tears.

It's Obama vs McCain now.

Pick a side or get rolled over.


by BarackIs44 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:09:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I have. NObama! (none / 0)

But that doesn't mean that I will vote Repug.


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:25:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have. NObama! (none / 0)

You might as well. Whatever helps you through the night.


"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."
by vcalzone on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:45:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

seriously (2.00 / 2)

What's so offensive about Barack Obama to you?


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:10:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, first of all, he can't win the GE. (2.00 / 1)

And then there's:  Completely inexperienced.  Panderer.  Racism.  Hateful supporters (the fish rots from the head).  Liar.  Not a liberal.  

Those of use who are not going to vote for him actually believe he will be worse than McCain.  This country has survived 8 years of GW - I guess it will survive 4 years of McCain.  We can't say the same thing for 4 years of Obama.

(And do not throw the Supremes back in my face...Obama supported Roberts and with his Kumbaya unity BS, you have no idea who he might nominate for that court in the future.  In fact, if you faced facts, you have no idea about anything "Obama".  That's pretty scary!)


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:32:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

His record is very public (2.00 / 2)

It is relatively easy to look up his Senate voting record as well as his campaign finance information.  That alone tells me something about him.  Digging a bit deeper, I can look into his state legislature history and the kind of issues he championed as a civil rights attorney and community organizer.

I've done that.  He may lack experience compared to the other candidates, but the experience he has speaks volumes.  I will cast my vote for him in November without hesitation.

Peace


by protothad on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:44:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, first of all, he can't win the GE. (none / 0)

I am so with you.  I don't know what to do. On the one hand I feel like maybe I should just pray to God I am wrong about him & vote for Obama; on the other hand this whole thing is just so ridiculous I don't know if I can really support the devastation of our country.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:47:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"Devestation?" (2.00 / 2)

Really, do you think he's going to plunge us into Mad Max-style anarchy?

Give him a chance to re-introduce himself outside the context of a contested primary.  I think you'll see that the guy knows his stuff and will serve the interests of the greater Democratic party.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:04:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Devestation?" (none / 0)

If he wins & he is as incompetent as I suspect he may be not only will he have ruined the party but our country will be completely screwed. Plus God knows what he is going to nominate to the SC in his efforts to display unity & change...hopefully it won't be a Republican to make a point as to how he can reach across the isle @@.  

So he will have taken the wheel of a ship he can't steer in the middle of the most precarious moment (in the eye of the storm if you will) & after losing control we will wind up with a neo-con back in office to only further decimate this country. This country is at its worst moments right now & we need someone we KNOW will do a good job in office. I KNOW what McCain's legacy is (awful); I KNOW Clinton's experience & how she will run the country (very competently) & Obama has yet to prove his ability.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:15:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't mean to be rude, but... (none / 0)

We wound up with a neocon in office after Bill Clinton; are you denegrating him?  President Clinton condeded to the Republicans time and time again... DADT and DOMA are obvious examples.

What makes you so sure that Hillary Clinton, who often ran on her husband's record, won't be similar?  Remember that we lost Congress in 1994 under his watch.

Obama is willing to listen to Republicans if they have good ideas, but he won't overtly pander to them.  Trust me on this: there's no possible way that he will nominate a Supreme Court justice who is more conservative than he is: remember that he's a former civil rights attorney and constitutional scholar.

I guess my advice is to start looking clearly at both candidates through a less partisan glass and realize that they're closer in policy and experience than you might think.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:38:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't mean to be rude, but... (none / 0)

Are you kidding me? That was an issue of campaigning NOT presidential ability.  Bill Clinton was one of our greatest presidents since JFK...And btw Gore won the popular vote against W & more than likely the electoral college vote as well.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:01:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Devestation?" (none / 0)

What on earth are you afraid he will do?  Has the extreme competence of his campaign (and even his most vehement detractors will grant him that) not given you a clue as to his abilities?  


by interestedbystander on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:52:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yup, Mad Max Time (none / 0)

The first warning was his energy plan... reading beteen the lines you can see that the focus on renewables and a green jobs program is just a cover for abducting our children and grinding them up for fuel...  And its obvious that all that his experience in teaching the Constitution, being a civil rights attorney, and passes laws for government accountability and transparancy is all just a trap for when he enslaves us using explosive radio controlled collars... and then there was that thing about him being right about the Iraq conflict and actually speaking out against.  I am sure that is all just some elaborate double bluff or something, leading to an eventual nuclear holocaust, I just haven't worked out how yet.

Does anyone know how I can mount a machine gun on my Ford Escort?

/snark... obviously

;)


by protothad on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:45:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yup, Mad Max Time (none / 0)

Right well if he says he stands for something that is all that we need as an indicator of ability to get it done I guess...


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:03:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yup, Mad Max Time (none / 0)

 But where is your indication to the contrary?  At least with Clinton we knew she failed on healthcare - what has Obama failed at?


by interestedbystander on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:05:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yup, Mad Max Time (none / 0)

And I haven't failed to get a bill passed by Congress either  - that's it I need a job - elect me to POTUS!!!

It is okay to not have gotten a bill passed through an opposing parties' dominated Congress.  Now she will have a supportive party Congress to get it through & guess what she knows her way around the neo con movement far better then Obama - she has had to deal with them & their BS on major policies which has entailed some of the worst smear campaigns EVER.

There is HUGE chasm - A HUGE difference between her experience with the neo con movement & Obama when it comes to dealing with them.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:11:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yup, Mad Max Time (none / 0)

One of the biggest differences is that he doesn't have to overcome the visceral hate they have for her - not her fault, but her problem.


by interestedbystander on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:01:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yup, Mad Max Time (none / 0)

I suspect the GOP will hate Obama just as much by the time all is said & done in the G/E.  And since he has no real experience in dealing with them he will be irreparably harmed.  Everything bad about Clinton is old news. I mean GMAB no politician could've been more polarizing then W second time around - and yet he WON!  It is all about the marketing in the G/E & what appeals in the Democratic primaries does NOT necessarily translate to the G/E.  Clinton had the best chance of the 2 out of fighting this to the win.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:08:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yup, Mad Max Time (none / 0)

Actually it's noticeable how many right wingers, pundits especially, admit how likeable he is.


by interestedbystander on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:16:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yup, Mad Max Time (none / 0)

Now when he is virtually unchallenged by the GOP!!  Hillary Clinton has treated him with kid gloves compared to what will happen.

I hate to even quote Karl Rove - but he even said last night AFTER the votes were in that Obama will NOT be considered likeable in the G/E b/c what translates well in the Democratic primary will NOT necessarily translate in the G/E - And now I have been brought down to the level of quoting Karl Rove - this is unreal - I can't believe it has gotten to this.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:16:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tough times ahead regardless (none / 0)

Honestly, our economy has been so hollowed out by years of supply sider doublethink, our energy policy has has left us so vulnerable to the peril of peak oil, that ANY president we elect will be inheriting a mess and will preside over several years of recession.  The real question is what that president will do to turn things around, how long it will take, and will the people recongnize the realities of the situation.

I know some people love to rip on Obama being all talk and a 'hopemonger'... but his skill at oratory and inspiration will be important during that time of economic recovery.  Also, his experience with community organizing and economic development in underpriveledged neighborhoods should serve him well when facing similar issues on the national level.

Some look at his youth and see inexperience, but I look at his record and see a background in exactly the areas that we need in the coming years.  I am further encuraged by the advisory team he has been building (I'll stack it up against McCain's neocon team any day).

So yes, I don't think everything will become sweetness and rainbows just because we elect Obama, but they will be a hell of lot better then if we elect McCain and a continuation of neocon economic and foreign policy.


by protothad on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tough times ahead regardless (none / 0)

  1. His oratory skills are good when unchallenged - so far he is not impressive in debates whatsoever & his youth may be further emphasized in his debates with McCain - debates that Clinton would've won easily.
  2. I never said the word "hopemongering" but since these are some of the worst times we have ever experienced I am a bit more hopeful about a candidate who has been in the thick & has a history of dealing with these types of issues, as well as having reach to those who can pull us out. IOW I feel much more confident about Clinton's ability based upon what she has done in the past vs. a question mark like Obama who tells us what he is going to do but can really show us how he has gotten it done.  Maybe with 10 more years under his belt I'd see a persuasive case to be made for him (or maybe I'd hate him - depending on what he did over time). But I'd know him better then I do now.

by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:07:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, first of all, he can't win the GE. (1.00 / 2)

"Completely inexperienced." -- longer legislative experience than Clinton actually.

"Panderer." -- the guy who spoke in support of gays in a black church, vs the woman who goes along with McCain for a gas tax break?

"Racism." -- against blacks or against whites? If against the latter, right now I'm significantly NOT concerned about the threat of black racism taking over the reins of the country.

"Liar" -- wow a Clinton supporter accusing other people of lying. Cute one.

"Not a liberal." -- wasn't he the most liberal person in the Senate?

These were all amusing, but you're describing Clinton, not Obama.


by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:00:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, first of all, he can't win the GE. (none / 0)

Coyote-
If your goal is to increase the vitriol and anger, then you are succeeding.  
If your goal is to make a compelling case for Clinton, then I think you should reevaluate your critique.  

While you might disagree with Obama on positions, your post seems consumed with a blinding anger that is almost personal.  I guess I would ask you to take a step back and consider what you know to be true about Obama and what you know to be false and make sure that your knowledge is based on facts and not impressions.  I would also ask that even if you maintain such anger after reevaluation you pause before posting again.  Why? Because right now I think you are contributing to both the defeat of HRC and the disunity within the Democratic party.  

Or ignore me and continue the anger.


by chrispy on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:31:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, first of all, he can't win the GE. (none / 0)

I'm really confused.  What are you talking about?

He's got marginally less experience than Clinton, but history shows us that experience doesn't necessarily correlate to good Presidents.

I have no idea where you're getting "panderer" from.  Clinton has set the gold standard of pandering with the gas-tax fiasco.  Add to that the "for-the-people" self-serving BS regarding FL+MI, and Clinton clearly takes the pandering cake. What exactly has Obama pandered on?

In my opinion there were only two racist (or race-injecting) incidents in the race: Bill's dismissal of Obama's SC win as effectively a "black thing", and Ferraro's comments.  Obviously Wright had a ton of racist things to say, but he wasn't speaking for Obama's campaign the way Bill and Ferrarro were.

I think there were plenty of hateful supporters on both sides.  Trust me, it's been extremely frustrating having Clinton stay in the race with virtually no chance of winning it, but hurting our candidate daily.

I'm not sure of any specifics of Obama's lies, but I'd wager he's got a better record than most politicians in this area.  

His record is available for you to look at -- he's every bit the liberal that Clinton is, if not moreso (flag burning amendment anyone?).


by ChrisKaty on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:15:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has "brought in" as many as... (none / 0)

Enjoy campaigning for McCain.


Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.
by SFValues on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:14:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has "brought in" as many as... (none / 0)

I won't vote for McCain.  I also won't vote for Obama.  And I have 5 other family members who will do the same (oh, and one who will vote for McCain...but he's always been our burden when it comes to politics).


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:26:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Where do you live? (none / 0)

I live in Missouri, so my vote is important.

Here is what not voting will get you if McCain wins:

100 more years in Iraq

the bombing of Iran

Bush's health care plan

Bush's tax cuts for the wealth made permanent

two or three more Roberts and Alitos on the court

more legislation written by corporate lobbyists

On all of these issues Obama and Clinton were very, very close.  It is for that reason, I am voting for whoever got the nomination.  

I am disheartened that people who call themselves Democrats don't see that Obama will be infinitely better than McCain and no REAL Democrat can sit out the fall election because their candidate did not get the nomination.


by MoDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:17:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has "brought in" as many as... (none / 0)

Don't let the door hit you on the way out!  In 2016, when a new president will be chosen, the "Reagan Dems" who betray us year after year, will be dead or in the nursing homes... It's time to lok at the party's future, not the past.


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:20:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has "brought in" as many as... (none / 0)

Are you referring to Clinton supporters as the Reagen Dems?!  I think you need to rethink that statement for a moment...


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:17:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So you're a troll now? (none / 0)

FYI, it's not something to be proud of.


by bookish on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:23:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has "brought in" as many as... (2.00 / 1)

You have to be a Republican. Image wars are over, we have a real war to end. And the only way that's going to happen is with a Democratic president.


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:30:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Life long Democrat. (none / 0)

And that still won't make me vote for someone I think has/will harm this country.

I'm an American first.


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:33:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't get it. (2.00 / 2)

How is he going to hurt the country?


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:06:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't let the door hit you (none / 0)

where the good lord split you.

Your arguments about not knowing enough are your own fault. There's enough information out there to make as informed a judgment about Obama as there is about any other candidate. If you choose not to be an informed voter (or non-voter), that's your choice. But would you mind crawling back under your bridge for the time being?


by bookish on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:26:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Reading policy statements written... (none / 0)

by his "advisors" (Jim Cooper, gag!) is not the same as standing up for something.

I don't know how many times I have heard Obamaphiles tell others to "go read".

Wait!  Shouldn't we be able to figure out what someone stands for from THAT PERSON?

The fact that we don't know what BO stands for should be a very frightening thought - for you and this country.


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:09:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reading policy statements written... (none / 0)

Weak.  Try responding to the policy positions themselves.  I know he doesn't hand-write them in his Meade notebook the way Clnton clearly does, but you just obviously switched attack gears when somebody challenged you to, you know, check out his policies.


What is The October Protocol?
by Koan on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:38:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

the class of the HRC supporters (none / 0)

on display.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:04:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So funny - look at your next comment (none / 0)

for "real class".


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:07:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

what statement do you disagree with? (none / 0)

I'm merely stating reality.

Clinton has a right to continue running for POTUS.

And the voters of New York have a right to replace her.

Decisions have consequences.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:14:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the class of the HRC supporters (none / 0)

It isn't about class or poor sportmanship...For God's sake this isn't a game - this is our country's future - I am extremely upset about what I see unfolding here - we are at one of the worst points in our country's history &  I feel zero confidence in the person our party is nominating to get us back on course (that is if he pulls some miracle & wins the G/E which I don't see happening). So I get to choose from definite catastrophe (McCain) to someone I hope I am wrong about b/c I just can't be sure but he is my only chance (Obama).  That is like asking me how I want to be executed b/c if I pick the right method maybe there is a chance I can squeak out a way to live through it - Once again this is  NOT A GAME.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:22:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the class of the HRC supporters (none / 0)

Don't insult Clinton supporters by lumping them into this camp.  Most are not irrational and spiteful.  I know a lot of them.  They're great.


by nwgates on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:10:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NObama bumper stickers can be found here! (none / 0)

It is amazing how childish some people are.  I really can't stand Hillary Clinton but I would have voted for her if she stole the nomination because it was the best thing for the country.  You are just being selfish.  Why don't you get a bumper sticker that says "HOLDING MY BREATH & TURNING BLUE FOR HILLARY"?  That would be more genuine.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:32:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

ONLY GOOD FOR MY COUNTRY - the very best.

And I think Obama will be worse than McCain.


by CoyoteCreek on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:34:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

I think that counts as..."Republican Trolling" to quote the MyDD guidelines


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:38:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (2.00 / 1)

I don't know that he will be WORSE then McCain but I don't know much about him at all. I mean I know the info that has been provided about him but that still isn't enough  to support the man.The only reason I would vote for him is that I pray to God he is better then I estimate & he isn't the GOP nomination so it is my only chance.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:50:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (2.00 / 1)

Go visit his website if you want to learn more about him.  Policy wise, he and Clinton are pretty close.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:59:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

Like I wrote in my comment I already know the info provided by his campaign -


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:01:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

What else do you want to know?


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:07:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

What I am saying is that I have poured over the information provided by his supporters b/c I WANTED to like him - His experience is NOT persuasive to me regarding his capability to assume this office at this point.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:08:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What is so unpersuasive? (none / 0)

Do you think he has not had enough for policy experience?  Is there an issue that you think he has not been strong on?  What information would you like?


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:11:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is so unpersuasive? (none / 0)

That should say "foreign policy experience."


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:12:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is so unpersuasive? (none / 0)

Explain to me how he is qualified to be President currently. Please point to past experience which demonstrates how he will govern.  


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:23:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is so unpersuasive? (2.00 / 1)

Qualifications for the office of President of the United States of America:

Age and Citizenship requirements - US Constitution, Article II, Section 1

No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States.

I would like to add the other imporant qualification: Winning the most Electoral College votes.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:32:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is so unpersuasive? (none / 0)

A. Lots of people meet those basic qualifications - beyond those I was asked what else I needed to know besides what his campaign had put out there. I answered the question.  I see my question has been answered sadly.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:48:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

His campaign for one (none / 0)

He brought people into the process who haven't been in the past and invested them in their own future. He created a movement from the grassroots level. He ran as clean a campaign as he could until such time as he had to fight to keep his name clean, sometimes by firing back in kind at his detractors. He never let the worst of the campaign soil him or his trajectory and he has virtually wrapped up the nomination now.

There's plenty of records of his tenure in the IL lege and US Senate to pore over as well, and his time as a community organizer in Chicago and his extracurriculars at Harvard. He's got a couple of books out there that you can read, and there are tomes of reportage in both the IL and national media.

I don't know what more you want. It's as much as you know of the other candidates, so unless you're purposefully holding him to a higher standard as an excuse not to support him, then I don't see that you've made much of a case.


by bookish on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:36:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: His campaign for one (none / 0)

Primary political campaigning does not count as a major qualification to be POTUS in my book...sorry.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:59:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

When it comes to Obama (none / 0)

I doubt anything does.

Best of luck with your bitterness.


by bookish on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:16:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: When it comes to Obama (none / 0)

It isn't bitterness it is grieving for the future of my country.  Like I said this is a bit more serious then a Monopoly or baseball game.  I can get over a loss in that big deal life goes on - there are real life changing things  on the line here.  

First I get dragged down by all the people that voted or supported Bush & now this. Yeah I'm angry that I have to keep living with this mess & noone listens to sense. I'm sick of having to deal with these repercussions.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:13:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sounds pretty bitter to me (none / 0)

but what do I know.

I don't know how you can determine exactly how Obama will act once in office if you claim that you don't have enough information to make a judgment about how he will govern. That seems a bit contradictory to me.


by bookish on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sounds pretty bitter to me (none / 0)

How is it contradictory to say that the man is not established enough to at BEST determine if he would be effective in office? Of course I'm worried.  

Oh no I must be bitter b/c God knows I can't actually be worried and upset - I'm really sick of dealing with the fallout from other people's poor judgement. First Bush for 8 years & now McCain. If I'm lucky I get the alternative of maybe Obama whose abilities I pray I am underestimating in two separate areas; those being his ability to win the G/E & his ability to be be an effective President.  Unfortunately I don't think so & God you don't know how bad I want to be wrong.  So pardon my concern @@


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 05:35:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That diverts from the issue (none / 0)

that caused my confusion, but whatever...

Actually, Obama has more elected experience than Hillary, though he's never sat on the board of a corporation, so maybe that's the experience you're looking for.

Sorry you don't agree with the majority's pick for the nominee, but I think we were provided with the option between two good candidates and only one can win. It's my opinion that the best one will vie for the Presidency, but I'm sure you disagree.

Good luck with whatever choice you decide to make. I wish you the best.


by bookish on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:53:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That diverts from the issue (none / 0)

Nope he was the one I didn't want as nominee - I have been very upset.  I tried to MAKE myself like him so I could argue in his favor & convince others - but despite my efforts it just IS NOT happening - it is intellectually dishonest for me to do so.

BTW there were OTHER Dems I would have been just fine with as the nominee; it didn't have to be Clinton, heck I supported Edwards amongst the primary contenders before he left the race. But I never initially wanted Obama in the least & despite my best efforts this is very disconcerting for me - I am very worried for this country's future. So he is only an anti GOP vote for me & I am very upset that, in my mind, so many spit in the face of having what could be a good president in favor of something that at best is an uncertainty when it comes to capability.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:35:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm sorry (none / 0)

This has been a rather emotionally draining nomination process for everyone, and it's difficult to invest yourself in a candidate only to have them fall by the way.

I hope that with time, we can all regain the perspective we need to come together and work to make sure that all our voices are heard and that the leaders we eventually choose follow through on the promises they've made.

I, myself, didn't settle on an candidate until after the primary season had begun. I don't really trust any politician, and you can be damn sure that I'll be closely following the progress of whoever the candidate is to see that their actions match their words, and when there's a discrepancy, I'll be on the phone and on the internets to make my displeasure known.

Whoever the candidate, we cannot be 100% certain of how they will behave; that's true with Clinton, with Obama and with McSame (though I think we can agree that he would be the easiest of the three to read; GOPpers are notorious for following the wishes of their corporate keepers), so to a certain extent, we're all going with a gut feeling.

In this case, your gut tells you one thing, my gut tells me another. Neither of us will know if we're right or wrong until after the dance. We just have to take the information we have and run it through our processors and hope that we've made the best choice based on our perceptions.

I really wish you the best for your choice, your candidate and your future. When this is over, we'll still know that we did our best to do our best for ourselves and everyone else.


by bookish on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:56:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How about foreign policy. (none / 0)

Beyond the war (which was very important to me), he has been a leader in the area of nuclear disarnmament.  Working across the with Dick Lugar on the subject.  He actually predicted what would become U.S. policy with regards to attacks on al-qaeda sanctuaries in Pakistan.  He wants to double foreign aid as part of an effort to reach out to the world after the abyss of GWB.  He has called for a foreign policy of direct engagement with the world, the U.N. and other multilateral organizations.  He has been a powerful voice in favor of human rights and Israel.  Oh and in the spare time of this campaign, he helped to bring peace to the Niger Valley.  That's no joke, he actually got involved and helped end the violence.  Just check out the link.

I think he's a great candidate and I've persuaded by his worth for over a year now.  I hope this convinces you that he is worthy of your vote.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:51:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How about foreign policy. (none / 0)

He has only begun to work on foreign policy issues & saying he'd vote a certain way is not true experience.  He has not stood the test of time working on actual policy; what he would do is a question mark at best. Like I said I hope I am wrong b/c the future of our country is at stake.  Of course that presumes he wins the G/E & I am wrong about his chances there too.  Ironically even MSNBC last night has changed the meme to "just b/c Clinton stands a better chance to win the G/E doesn't mean the Super delegates can nominate her; she has to prove Obama has zero chance." Quite different then the argument that was once propped which was that Clinton stood less of a chance then Obama to win the G/E.  Now it is becoming accepted that she stands a better chance but that reasoning isn't good enough to nominate her.  Let me be clear: A) I hope I am wrong & Obama wins the G/E - I am skeptical at best & then if I am wrong about that B) I hope I am wrong & he  governs in a manner as close to the competency that HRC would be able to demonstrate.  Once again I am skeptical at best but hopefully he will have some good Cabinet members who can make everything okay.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:59:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He began this work on foreign policy... (none / 0)

in 2005.  He's stood the test of time on his positions on Iraq and nuclear disarmament.  And did you notice the thing about peace in Niger.  That doesn't give you confidence in his abilities?

On the electablity front, I don't see her as more electable.  I never have, but that doesn't matter anymore, does it?  If she lost, it's only a question of whether Obama is better than McCain.  I think the evidence is there to demonstrate that he is.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:36:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

He just beat one of the best political machines our country has seen in the last 40 years to win the Democratic Presidential nomination.  Doesn't that say a lot about his ability to lead the country?  It does to me.  

Obama is my third choice.  I had misgivings about his inexperience as well, but after watching him run his campaign I think he has the skills and abilities to run the country.  He will make mistakes but I think he is going to be a good President.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:23:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

Running a campaign to win a primary is hardly equitable to being POTUS especially in the worst period of our country's history.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:25:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (2.00 / 1)

jrsy
One of the most compelling parts of Obama as a candidate was his decision to go from Harvard Law School to the streets of Chicago.  He choose to be a community organizer and an advocate for the under-served and disenfranchised.  In many ways, this parallels some of the fine work HRC did in the 1970s. From my perspective, this decision and his ability to mobilize people to create change is a major positive.

On a less biographical note, his record in the Senate and Illinois demonstrates solid democratic values that compare favorably, imo, to HRC.  That said, I am fairly liberal and perhaps you are more of a centrist.

In reflecting on the campaign, I think the only major criticism one can level at Obama was his lack of leadership with regards to FL and MI.  While that situation is not his fault and while a solution is quite tricky, I am bothered that we might end up disenfranchising people.  I wish he had been more of a leader even if it meant losing the election.  That said, your critique, which is essentially an unfounded fear, and coyote's critique, which seems to be unfounded anger, don't seem based in concrete realities.  

Anyway, there are thousands of people here and at dailykos who can answer specific questions regarding Obama's positions so just ask specific questions and they will be answered.


by chrispy on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:42:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

HRC's work goes back prior then the 70s...

Regardless his experience still is not close to being equal to that of HRC's OR providing a demonstrable example as to how he would lead in office.  Campaigning in a primary just doesn't cut it as experience alone.  We just don't fully KNOW him; his identity politically is still being formed & I have a big problem with that.  However like I said I guess I can pray that the shot in the dark (Obama) makes the target vs. the other guy (McCain) who is way off. But I have a big problem with the rejection of someone as great as Hillary Clinton for such an unknown entity as Obama & it really makes me question alot of things regarding this party & the people who comprise it.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:53:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

I was comparing HRC's grassroots work in the 70's to BO's grassroots work.  

While I agree that HRC has tremendous experience, I think we need to be factual.  She graduated from college in 1969, then went off to LAW school.  Hence, while she has experience gleamed during the 1960s and before, I don't think it's the kind of experiences that you are citing as important.

That said, I agree that her various experiences make her a compelling candidate.  

I still feel like your fear of Obama as an unknown quantity is a bit... exaggerated.   What do you think he will end up doing?  His consistency during the campaign bodes well, right? Especially compared to how Hillary switched messages several times?  Or maybe we just see things differently?

Anyway, thanks for engaging in the dialogue.  And, who knows, this might all be premature.  HRC still has a legitimate chance.  


by chrispy on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:37:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

Nothing is equitable to being POTUS.  It is a unique job.  

If you think Obama isn't up to it then that is your right, but I think you are selling him short.  He has an impressive resume and this campaign has shown him to be a very capable politician.  

George W. Bush had lots of executive experience but he turned out to be a gawd awful President.  That tells me experience isn't the be all end all of a good President.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:46:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

Actually Bush had HORRIBLE experience along with NO foreign relations experience when he first ran for president; hence one of my big arguments against him.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What you miss, is that I ALSO WANT (none / 0)

Then you are wrong.  

A competent FEMA director and a Democratic Cabinet are worth voting for a Democrat.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:57:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good riddance (none / 0)

Good riddance. The democratic party does not need your loathesome hate destroying the party as WE move forward.

What you need to do is to question what values you had/have that made you a democrat in the first place.

But if you choose to sit it out in November or vote for the GOP, then all I have to say is -DON'T LET THE DOOR HIT YOUR ASS ON THE WAY OUT!


"Beauty, more than bitterness, makes the heart break." Sara Teasdale
by april34fff on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:05:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton has a right to stay in the race (none / 0)

And the Democrats of New York state have a right to replace her the next time she stands for election.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:01:31 AM EST

New York Obama Supporter Here (none / 0)

I don't condone this option, I'll keep voting for Hillary as long as she keeps running for reelection.


by Hatch on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:18:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New York Obama Supporter Here (none / 0)

At what point does HRC staying in the race--and continuing to attack Obama--cross from being legitimate campaigning to petulant and emotionally self-serving?

HRC supporters saying she has a right to stay in the race need to acknowledge that U.S. Senate seat doesn't belong to her in perpetuity. It's conditional on her showing good judgment.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:23:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Attacking Obama (none / 0)

I highly doubt that she'll continue the kitchen sink strategy. There's no good reason for her to do it, it won't get her anywhere.


by Hatch on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:27:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New York Obama Supporter Here (2.00 / 1)

If she stays in the race until June but doesn't bash Obama I would be OK with that.  If she continues with the dumb-ass gas tax holiday crap and her 3 am phonecall canard then I would say a primary challenger would be in order.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:35:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Her chances are minimal? (2.00 / 1)

I'm reminded of that scene in Dumb and Dumber when Harry asked that hot girl if there was any chance she'd marry him -and she said 1 in a million. He then said, with excitement, "so there's a chance then!"


by Cleveland John on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:01:57 AM EST

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

Well said, Jerome. I expect that she will continue as well but I hope that her camp will not turn FL and MI into a Obama vs Clinton mess. Last night Lanny Davis was all but blaming the Obama camp directly for the situation in FL and MI and in my opinion diminished himself and his candidate.

I wish we could know how many Limbaugh inspired votes there were...

I thought that Hillary was very classy in her speech last night. She could have been a lot more combative and destructive and instead talked about a unified party a lot, which I appreciated.


by wasder on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:03:47 AM EST

Note also... (none / 0)

that the Obama camp said last night that they'd like to come to a compromise on MI and FL. They're in the  drivers seat now. They can seat MI and FL without risk of losing the nomination and some such deal will be cut.


Your old role is rapidly aging. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times they are a changing.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:06:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Exit polls suggest 7% of Clinton's vote in Indiana - enough to give her the win.


by interestedbystander on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:03:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Spun out? (2.00 / 1)

If the HRC campaign can now only fall back on an analysis that claims results are due to black voters loyal to Obama... I am friggin tired of hearing that.

PS- every white woman in Oregon I know is voting for Obama... All of them. And I have been careful in conversations not to assume people are Obama supporters, but these fine Democratic women voters in Oregon are PROUD to be supporting Obama. The War is a bigger deal to them than supporting the wife of our former president who brought us NAFTA. I'd love to know what HRC internals are for Oregon. Care to venture a guess on that?


by Stumptown Dave on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:04:15 AM EST

I think she should stay in through Puerto Rico (2.00 / 1)

but not fight beyond that.

If Obama was able to win NC by a bigger popular vote margin than Hillary's victory in PA, I see no way she could catch him in the popular vote, even counting MI and FL.

If I were a superdelegate, I would wait until after June 7 and then bring down the curtain on the Clinton campaign. Let all the states vote, and then the nominee should be the person with the most delegates and the most popular votes.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:05:13 AM EST

Re: I think she should stay in through Puerto Rico (none / 0)

If Obama was able to win NC by a bigger popular vote margin than Hillary's victory in PA, I see no way she could catch him in the popular vote, even counting MI and FL.

Actually, counting MI and FL, she's likely to end up with a popular vote lead.  She's currently behind by either 88,000 votes or 198,000 votes, depending on whether you include estimates for four caucus states that don't report votes.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_vote_count.htm l

She has huge polling leads in WV and KY, and a solid polling lead in PR, which are three of the four largest remaining contests.  If the remaining contests vote as expected, she has an excellent chance of making up even the larger of the two numbers above (198,000 votes).


by markjay on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:33:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Popular vote total won't matter (none / 0)

The supers have pretty much already indicated that they don't really care about the popular vote total, because of various reasons, like the caucus states you mentioned.

Further, the MI total assumes that Obama got nothing there.  That will never fly.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:09:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

There's not enough in the several states. (none / 0)

There is no way that she gets enought from WV, KY and PR to overcome Obama's victories in OR, SD, MT and a 198,000 vote or 88,000 vote advantage.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:19:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Hillary ran a poor come from behind campaign. JA- I hope you dedicate your efforts against McCain as I know you will, but at the same time I also hope that you verify what you print, a badly misinformed story against McCain and you will squander whatever credibility you have left-in other words, be judicious.


by RAULC on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:13:59 AM EST

Time for Brownie Recipes (1.00 / 3)

The captains of this ship  (MyDD) have run this site onto the rocks.  They have done little to nothing to stop the obvious hate speech and racist attacks.  They have censored pro-Obama speech by cancelling access.  They have allowed the same five people, some who work for HRC's campaign, to remain at the top of the rec list..day after day.  This was an obvious manipulation.  There has been little to no discussion about issues which are bigger and broader than HRC.  This site, simply, was a tool for HRC campaign.  Now your ship is on the rocks you won't be able to sell Ad space.  As I opined before, this site, given it's myopic view point, will become a place where you can swap brownie recipes.  May your strike continue so your diarists don't pollute any other more robust sites.


by SovSov on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:16:14 AM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

The problem with your scenario for Hillary to stay in the race is that Obama is likely to gain the support of 50-100 supers between now and WV. That will put an end to whatever dreams Hillary may still be harboring.


by vermontprog on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:18:11 AM EST

He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (2.00 / 1)


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:18:28 AM EST

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (none / 0)

She couldn't have won with 10% black vote.


Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.
by SFValues on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:20:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (2.00 / 1)

AA's are 15% in a general election. So Obama can start out with 15% but where's the other 35% going to come from? Right now it looks like he'll get about 1/3 of the white vote in the general election which is about 25% so he'll probably max out the general election vote at 45%. McCain will probably get about 55% of the vote in a general election.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (2.00 / 1)

Right, because all those white voters that believed in Clinton's message are suddenly going to say to themselves that McCain, the polar opposite of Clinton, is suddenly right.

Also, McCain's support amongst his own party is shaky seeing as how he only got 75% of the vote last night as the nominee and Democratic reigistration numbers are off the charts.


Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.
by SFValues on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:27:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (none / 0)

Sorry but you aren't realizing what Obama has wrought. He has created a white flight problem from his campaign.

Obama's support among the party is shaky. 1/2 of those Clinton voters in both IN and NC said that they won't vote for Obama the majority saying that they'll vote for McCain. So they do vote for McCain according to the exit polls.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:32:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (none / 0)

Yeah, because us white folks don't want to be in a party where black folks are votin'... might bring down the property (er, intrade) values... or something... what?  /snark

You have looked at the head-to-head McCain vs Obama polls, haven't you?  They don't support your theory.


by protothad on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:50:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (none / 0)

Um, Gallup showed Obama losing.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:44:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"White flight?" (none / 0)

Did you not even read Jerome's post? Obama increased his share of the white vote from Ohio to Indiana!


by Angry White Democrat on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:53:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "White flight?" (none / 0)

Wow, in his home state, as he has called IN, he couldn't even carry the white vote. That's pitiful.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:45:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "White flight?" (none / 0)

Wow, the spin here is dizzying.

First, show me where Obama said Indiana was his home state.

Second, since you seem to have placed an almost godlike importance on the white vote, why don't you name for me the last time a Democrat won it in a general election?


by Angry White Democrat on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:04:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "White flight?" (none / 0)

Thanks for reminding me why we lose elections. It's the reason why we constantly lose elections-- the loss of the white vote. It's certainly a demographic we need to expand not contract as Obama is doing.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:34:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Um, no (none / 0)

Al Gore got 39% of the white vote in 2000 and he won the nationwide popular vote by half a million votes.

If he'd gotten 40% of the white vote, he would have won the electoral college as well.

Obama can, and will, do better than 40% of the white vote.


by Angry White Democrat on Wed May 07, 2008 at 05:04:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "White flight?" (none / 0)

And while we're at it, I'll point you to this Newsweek poll which has McCain getting the same 52% of the white vote against Obama as he does against Clinton:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/134254?tid=re latedcl

But sadly, I suspect you're too far gone to even acknowledge reality at this point.


by Angry White Democrat on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:14:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Be prepared for a drubbing in November! (none / 0)

BTW 37% in primary traslates to 25% in GE. The 15% AA is a national average. There are many states where the number is less.  


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:36:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes... (2.00 / 1)

In many of those states, Obama won the white vote... cf Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Wyoming, etc.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:11:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

They were caucuses (none / 0)

MN,IA,WY were not primaries. He won the white vote only in WI and VA primaries.


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:24:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Your point? (none / 0)

When I went to the caucus in Minnesota, they had me write my candidate's name on a piece of paper and stuff it in a box.

Don't tell me I didn't vote.

This dismissive attitude towards caucus states is part of the reason that Clinton is in this predicament.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:29:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (none / 0)

Will you vote for him or McCain or write in Clinton?


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:16:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (none / 0)

None of the above. May be vote for Nader or green party or libertarian. There are so many options.


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:32:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (none / 0)

True. And you get the government you deserve when you  chose various options.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:33:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (none / 0)

I voted for Obama when he ran for Senate. He is not an option for me. Unlike you I know that he is a hypocrite.


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (none / 0)

Actually she could have.


by Montague on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:07:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (2.00 / 1)

Yep, Brazille was desperately spinning last night about this. She thinks that they'll vote for Obama in the general election. I guess Brazille thought the same thing when she ran the Dukakis campaign. Whatever. It's obvious that Obama can't win the general election but I think that the DNC doesn't really care.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:21:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's Stop With This (2.00 / 3)

Even the electoral vote count on MyDD currently shows Obama winning the GE. And that's without Florida or Ohio, both of which he could with with the right strategy.

With Hillary's support, he will have a huge boost in the polls and it will become even more clear that this is going to be a landslide election.


by Hatch on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:24:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's Stop With This (none / 0)

He is barely winning. Demographics are a problem for Obama. Once McCain unloads on him it'll be easy for him to win.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:26:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So offer advice, not doom. (2.00 / 1)

Ga6thDem, there's little point in internecene Democrat-on-Democrat violence anymore, so how about you suggest options for Obama to defeat McCain's strategy instead?


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:32:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So offer advice, not doom. (none / 0)

Fact is, the chance of Obama winning looks very slim right now. He's not going to change his strategy apparently so what I say won't matter. He tried to get more white voters but failed on that account. He is just too emeshed in black liberation theology etc. and really doesn't seem to know how to do it.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:47:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama's Only Serious Demographic Problem (none / 0)

Older female democrats are threatening to hold a grudge and vote for McCain. That ain't going to happen, just yesterday McCain announced he will nominate more anti-abortion justices like Roberts and Alito.


by Hatch on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:32:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Most Latinos are pro life! (none / 0)

You seem to forget that there are many pro lifers in Democratic party that may not mind that aspect of McCain.


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:42:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Many pro-lifers support Obama (none / 0)

He has a plan to reduce the number of abortions by 95% in 10 years.  Even pro-lifers may look at him, a pro-choice candidate who would rather there not be abortions, and realize the logic of his position.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:13:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm pro-life (none / 0)

and I don't like that aspect of McCain or the Republicans. Pro-life is a crutch, a bait and switch, they use to enforce religious doctrine on us by scaring people like me into supporting them. I'm smarter than that

and by the way, if they're pro-life, they sure as hell ain't voting for Clinton, who has made it more than known she's pro-choice.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:32:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Only Serious Demographic Problem (none / 0)

I don't see women voting for John "you c**t" McCain in overwhelming numbers.


by nwgates on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:19:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Calm Down (2.00 / 2)

They said on TV last night that Obama's NC coalition was almost exactly like the one Edwards used to win the Senate seat in 1998. He lost the white vote very badly, African-Americans are a much more powerful Democratic voting bloc in that state.

Besides, Obama's going to get a lot more than 37% of the white vote in most states outside of the south. Relax.


by Hatch on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:22:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calm Down (2.00 / 1)

Um, no he's not. Obama supporters are staying in denial on this fact.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:25:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calm Down (2.00 / 2)

Really?  What pct did he get in Maine, Washington, Kansas, Conneticut, Deleware, Wisconsin etc.?


by Bobby Obama on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:26:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calm Down (none / 0)

You want to count caucuses? We aren't having a national caucus in Nov. No one said he couldn't get any white votes, he just won't get enough of them to win a general election. If he couldn't do better among whites in IN then it's pretty obvious he has serious problems. Rev. Wright has created a white flight problem.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:34:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No... (2.00 / 2)

Speak for yourself.  Wright seems to have created a Ga6thDem flight problem.

Just because whites in many states were more pro-Clinton than pro-Obama doesn't mean that they won't vote for Obama against a Republican who wants more war and loves Bush's economy.


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:16:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No... (none / 0)

This is where Obama supporters are constantly wrong. They assume that Hillary's supporters will automatically vote for Obama. It's not going to happen because of the way Obama has run his campaign. Race baiting has really turned tons of people off.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:49:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We caucused in Wisconsin? (none / 0)

Funny, I though we had a primary in Wisconsin and he won it quite handily here.


by protothad on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:49:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"fact" (none / 0)

When did it get a new definition?


John McCain, maverick
by lojasmo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:42:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calm Down (2.00 / 1)

What national polling data or crystal ball are you basing that on?  Just curious.


by protothad on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:53:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

VA and WI are the only states where he won (none / 0)

the white vote in the primaries!


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:45:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He doesn't need to win the white vote in the GE (none / 0)

Al Gore got only 39% of the white vote in 2000 and he won the nationwide popular vote by half a million votes.


by Angry White Democrat on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:58:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calm Down (none / 0)

That was sort of a dumb analogy, as this is a primary, and JRE's was a GE.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:20:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (2.00 / 4)

So is it honestly your belief that 100% of those who voted for Hillary are going to be voting for McCain? Because otherwise this is a pretty nonsensical argument. Yes, some Clinton supporters are going to sit it out or even vote for McCain. I doubt it's as many as the polling suggests -- and that's not wishful thinking, that's looking at polling anytime a candidate drops out. Lots of Edwards supporters said they'd never vote for Hillary or Obama; few are saying it now.

I've always thought this was insulting to Clinton, honestly. "Obama has a problem with white voters". So it's all about Obama, huh? No credit goes to Clinton whatsoever? She's really not a very strong candidate (because otherwise it'd be her appeal that was the factor here) but he's even weaker?

Clinton's a very strong candidate. She does very well with a number of demographic groups. Obama's a very strong candidate. He does very well with a number of demographic groups. Right now the evidence (in terms of GE polling) is pretty strongly showing that, once there's a nominee, that nominee will do well, regardless of which candidate is nominated.

And, as hard as it is to believe, Obama's predicted to win states such as Iowa and Wisconsin in the GE, while Clinton's not. I guess it's the hoards of black voters in those states that are swinging the election, because Obama's so terribly unappealing to whites?


No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!
by Texas Gray Wolf on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:42:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He can not win GE with 37% white vote! (none / 0)

No credit goes to Clinton whatsoever?

This is the part that stumps me. I personally know people who voted for Hillary, not because they won't vote for a black man or dislike Obama personally, but because they REALLY LIKED Hillary. I seriously doubt many Hillary votes were a protest vote against Obama; I think most of them came from people who genuinely like Hillary. In which case their votes are definitely winnable by Obama, whose positions are much closer to Hillary's than McCain's are.

By this silly electability measure, NOBODY in a closely contested primary would be 'electable' because it's impossible for any Democrat to win the general with less than 55% of registered Democrats behind them.


by tjekanefir on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:32:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sure. That's enough. (none / 0)


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:15:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

Democrats don't like being pandered to.  The whole gas tax thing was a joke.  It's a republican trick that reinforces republican frames.  That may have been necessary in the 90's, but being DLC is no longer being in touch with the electorate.


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:18:54 AM EST

I hope she takes your advice. (none / 0)

I think you are right on Jerome - she should stay in.


by Molee on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:18:58 AM EST

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

Jerome,
What do you think about the SD's putting out the message that they know Obama has "electoral problems" but they feel that we should nominate him anyway?
No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:20:10 AM EST

He Doesn't (2.00 / 1)

If Obama had serious electoral problems, he wouldn't have won huge in NC and almost tied in IN. He's had two months of constant scandal. I'm not saying he's got no problems at all, but it's not as bad as you assume.


by Hatch on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:30:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He Doesn't (none / 0)

Are you kidding? Did you look at the demographics? Jacking up the black vote is the only way he won. That won't be enough in the general election.

Obama is Dukakis the return.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:35:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He Doesn't (none / 0)

His "electoral problems" amount to better numbers in EV, popular vote, and chance to win than Clinton. Aside from an extremely brief period during the very worst of WrightGate II, Obama's consistently outpolled Clinton in GE polling, and is doing so again now.

To whatever extent you believe Obama to have "electoral problems", Clinton has more and larger ones.


No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!
by Texas Gray Wolf on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:45:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He Doesn't (none / 0)

If he's so great why are his demographics so poor?


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:51:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerome did not come to that conclusion (2.00 / 1)

   * Black voters supported Obama by 87% in OH, and by 90% in IN.

   * White voters supported Obama by 34% in IN, and by 40% in IN.

   * White Democrats moved from Clinton leading by 43% in OH, to Clinton leading by 28% in IN.

   * Liberal voters moved from Clinton leading by 7% in OH to Obama leading by 14% in IN.

   * Conservative voters moved from Obama leading by 5% in OH to Clinton leading by 24% in IN.

He  seemed to improve in a number of demographics
Just saying


by KosTexasliberal on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:58:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He Doesn't (2.00 / 1)

I'm so tired of Democrats that piss their pants every time the wind blows.

We've got our nominee, and he's worlds better than theirs.  We've also got a set of electoral realities that make electing a republican extremely difficult at this point.

Let's just run the damn general election campaign.  This handwringing is getting old, and it's not helping anyone.


by Capt America on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:59:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

I think I'm beginning to agree with Kos, Clinton is starting to see the end coming and will most likely suspend (not end!) her candidacy when Obama hits 2025 delegates.


by MNPundit on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:21:11 AM EST

Women voters / Young Voters in IN (2.00 / 1)

Women in Indiana went 51-49 Clinton.

In PA that number was 59-41.

Indiana = 16% turnout voters under 30 and 14% turnout voters over 65.

PA ='d 22% voters over 65 and 12% voters under 30.


k/o: politics and local blogs
by kid oakland on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:32:08 AM EST

Re: Women voters / Young Voters in IN (none / 0)

Indiana = 16% turnout voters under 30 and 14% turnout voters over 65.

There you go, that is indeed why Obama nearly won the state.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:26:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Another New Yorker here (none / 0)

Senator Clinton will not remain Senator Clinton if she does not find a gracious and quick way to end this thing and get behind our nominee.   At least in my NYC scene, she has lost a ton of support.

I can even imagine some moderate NY Republicans who would stand a chance with some of the disaffected Obama supporters in New York, not the least of whom are the African American voters of New York  -- if Charlie Rangel didn't have half of Harlem on his payroll, he'd be in trouble too.   He really messed things up with a lot of his core supporters and Clyburn's critique was aimed, in part, at him.   I actually expect Rangel to consider switching his SD vote to Obama, though that will be a real reading of how much HRC has reduced her power in New York with this freakshow of a campaign.

A lot will depend, of course, on the length of Obama's coattails.   If we don't need Lieberman and Clinton, their influence may be reduced even if they remain in their seats for the coming 8 years.  They could, of course, reform their corporation-loving,  triangulating ways under an Obama administration.   HRC always seemed to have the sense to admit failure in the past, until she refused to admit her vote for the IWR was an abject failure of the first magnitude.

She lost my vote then and there, for senate or for president.  For good.   It's still about the war for me.


by realcountrymusic on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:38:16 AM EST

Re: Another New Yorker here (2.00 / 1)

This election isn't going to be about Iraq anymore. Obama's 2002 speech (followed,  incidentally, by precisely zero antiwar leadership in the Senate) won't get him any extra votes in November.

And Hillary seems to be doing OK up here. There's plenty of Obama Kool-Aid left unconsumed.  I wouldn't be surprised is McCain is competitive in New York State against Obama.  "Hope and Change" won't cut it outside NYC.  Obama talks a lot, but there's no reason to believe he can actually do anything.  


by Upstate Dem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:44:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thank you (2.00 / 1)

for a post sans vitriol and nonsense. Your predictions for her immediate future are probably correct.


by danfromny on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:38:56 AM EST

Re: Thank you (none / 0)

I remember the moment I turned on fully to the Obama phenomenon: I was in a Harlem convenience store the day after Iowa, fairly late at night, and a rather transient-looking elderly African American man came into the store for a beer.   He stopped at the rack of newspapers where the NY Post headline read "Winner!" or some such over a large photo of Obama's face.

The old man did a double take, picked up the paper, stared at it for a long moment, and then said, half under his breath and to no one in the store in particular, "I can't believe they let the brother win. "

I gave my first $100 to Obama that night.  


by realcountrymusic on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:44:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice anecdote (none / 0)

I still have paranoia that the next speech I see from him will be his last.  America doesn't treat its policial pioneers well...


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:22:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

"Older female democrats are threatening to hold a grudge and vote for McCain.  That ain't going to happen, just yesterday McCain announced he will nominate more anti-abortion justices like Roberts and Alito."

Oh?  Don't hold your breath, boyz.

I won't be voting for McCain.

I won't be voting for Obama.

Pretty much because of the attitude you demonstrate in your post.


by No Blood for Hubris on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:43:13 AM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Fine, then sell out your sisters and daughters.

Frankly, abortion is not a hill I choose to die on and I'm not hung up on litmus tests like that.   But for anyone who has made a pro- choice stance on abortion rights the sine qua non standard for acceptability in the democratic party to vote for McCain (which is what staying home or voting for someone else in November will amount to in many states) is laughably hypocritical.

Our party has died on the hill of abortion rights for a generation; it's the single biggest wedge issue that has handed the presidency and (at times) the congress to the GOP (entirely cynically, since they have not done anything to upset the perfectly balanced ecology of hatred on this issue).  

If my fellow "feminist" democrats are willing to elevate their resentment at having lost a shot at getting a deeply flawed female candidate into office over the issue on which many of us have backed you up since we started voting at a huge cost in our ability to advance other important agendas (for me, anti-war and pro-environment),  who needs you?

We don't need the racists who won't vote for a black man either.

You watch.   The wheel is turning.


by realcountrymusic on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:50:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

I won't be voting for either of them because I don't like either of them and I don't trust either of them.


by Montague on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:11:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

I am assuming (and do not want to put words in anyone's mouth) that Jerome finds Obama unelectable in the general.  I would love to hear more specific reasons for his real lack of support, at this point, of the probable candidate, but he seems to feel he cannot win this.


by mady on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:46:33 AM EST

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

When a Democratic Candidate is getting 90% of ANY demographic group, they have a distinct advantage in states where A.A make up a 1/3 of the pop.  HONESTLY, there is NO WAY OBAMA beats McCain in N.C, S.C, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, or Virginia. STOP the DENIAL Obama supporters.  The Electoral math is just NOT there "right now" for Obama.  Please wake up!  Your fooling yourself honestly if you think McCain can't beat Obama especially if he's able to get the Mexican vote in Nevada and Colorado.   HRC beats McCain in Florida and Ohio.  She has stronger electoral appeal.


by nzubechukwu on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:46:34 AM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

I'd rather lose with Obama than win with the racist vote you are so afraid will kill us.

I for one am not going to join a coalition with people who won't vote for a black candidate.  

Don't tell me African Americans won't vote for a white candidate; they've done so with numbing consistency for generations.  


by realcountrymusic on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:55:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

That is nonsense, once we have a nominee most white Hillary backers will vote for Obama and if Hillary was the nominee most blacks would have voted for her.
It`s time for her to get out, game over, we need to concentrate on beating McCain and  Obama can do it. Hell when it gets close to election day and people look at 4 more years of Bush, the white dems will fall in line for the most part.
by JOEL1954 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:10:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

I spoke with Thomas Mann about this last week - he said "for years everybody in the political science community thought an African American could never be elected President.  Many still do think that.  But, if there was ever a year to try it is this year.  After George Bush."


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:58:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

Uh. Yeah. It is there. You need to actually look at the states to figure that out though. And you need to look at the % breakdown Bill Clinton got and you need to pay attention to the numbers of voters and party ID.


My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!
by RLMcCauley on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:18:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

So what are the chances of a brokered convention? I mean I guess those are nil since Obama will probably get enough #s to clinch the nomination. I was sort of hoping maybe a brokered convention would happen & Gore would be asked to take the nomination -


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:00:42 AM EST

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

slim to none.  If Obama agrees to counting Fl and Mi there is no case for her to stay...even he he does not there is not a great chance.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:04:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

That is what I figured - I was just trying to find a ray of hope.


by jrsygrl on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:28:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

"Though she had a 'divide and conquor' frame of the issue that work well for a GE against a Republican".

History is written by the victors and if Senator Clinton had won the primary her tactics would have been seen as brilliant.

However, I have long thought that one of her fundamental failures was to keep on describing herself as an experienced problem solver without defining what the problem was.

The 'problem' was winning pledged delegates, it was not about winning a GE.

Obama concentrated on the problem of winning delegates, not least by paying attention to Caucuses. My expectation is that he will now start shifting his tactics to be GE friendly.


by My Ob on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:17:39 AM EST

Match-ups (none / 0)

Obama should want Clinton to stay in the race as long as possible.  The media, like Samantha Power and the majority of the the "creative class", views her as a trailer park monster and will continue to make Obama look good as long as he has his foot on her neck.  The moment it beomes strictly Obama v. McCain. . .Well, Chis Matthews's legs will start tingling again, but not for Barack.  


by Upstate Dem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:20:27 AM EST

Re: Match-ups (none / 0)

Samantha Power had one mistake in the heat of a campaign.  She is, however, a visionary I really hope she has a role in the administration.  It will profoundly change how we do IR.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:32:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

"I doubt that Clinton will drop out though. She'll stay in and continue to fight for every delegate."

It would take a lot of money to do that and she already owes herself $11M.

Tim Russert reported last night that Obama is willing to pick up the tab if she drops out, and it must be a tempting offer.

She also has nothing to gain by going after every delegate when she's already lost anyway. She would incur much enduring disrespect within the political community by such a quixotic act.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:24:09 AM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

She'll "try and win OR."

Dream on.  She'll lose by at least 15% here in Oregon.  


Schmedlap
by Regis J Reynolds on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:24:23 AM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

I've been rather hard on Jerome in the comments at times, but this was a gracious post.

I'm looking forward to the nomination getting wrapped up one way or another so that myDD, dKos, Open Left, etc... can all start to focus on what is important - getting a Dem in the White House, with solid Dem majorities in the House and Senate.


by tysonpublic on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:39:07 AM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Jerome, I was wondering your thoughts on what happens to Obama in the GE if the GOP puts Condi Rice in the VP slot. It seems like a no-brainer for them. I think it would sink him, added to his obvious weaknesses.

I've asked Digby and Atrios to write something on the topic, and would appreciate your opinion, too.

It's something we need to start talking about at this point, I think.

Thanks.


by dark1p on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:55:01 AM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

I wrote this diary about Condi as veep a few weeks ago.  I would LOVE Johnny Mac to choose an incompetent Bush crony for his ticket.  This would kill him.  His gains among the black community would be very, very small (AA's usually vote Dem anyway, why would they vote for a Repug VP over an AA POTUS?), and his ties to Mr. 28% would be written in stone.

Please, John, pick Condi.  Pretty please.


by nwgates on Wed May 07, 2008 at 11:27:27 AM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

First off, it unfortunately appears that Clinton won Indiana due to that stupid fool Rush.  Judging by those Conservative numbers, Operation Chaos was a success.

That sucks.

Secondly, I think it's about time we stop with this white/black nonsense.  It's obvious by looking at the polls that issue for Obama is with older voters.  He won voters aged 17-64 45% to 41%.  He lost voters aged 65 and older 70% to 305.

There's a generational issue right now (which will almost assuredly be remedied once Obama becomes our nominee), not a race issue. Please stop pushing the MSM's agenda of making this about race.


by RussTC3 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:52:24 PM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

that should read 70% to 30%.


by RussTC3 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:53:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Obama made it about race.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:52:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Nope, wrong again.  Facts show it was about age, not race.

Nice try though.  Your MSM overlord are pleased you're latching onto their BS.


by RussTC3 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:49:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Obama made it an issue by calling the Clintons racists. If he hadn't done that then maybe you would have a point.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:36:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

BS.  Some of these comments you folks make are so stupid, they're hard to believe.


by RussTC3 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:18:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Read the SC memo at politico. It's Obama's talking points about race baiting.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:53:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Of course she should fight on, it's way not over. If the polls hold up, she'll regain the pop vote lead after WV and KY, assuming same turnout we've seen in PA, IN and NC (in each case more dems voting than came out for Kerry in 2004). This is, of course, counting Florida and Michigan but also using the estimate for the 4 caucus states that didn't officially report pop vote.

It then comes down to Oregon and Puerto Rico (Montana and S Dakota are very few voters). If more people voted for her than Obama and she would have won on any other deployed voting method (electoral votes, Republican winner-takes-all, both of which she already leads comfortable) it is difficult to see how denying her won't be seen as unfair. This would then lead to pressure to count Florada and Michigan, to give BO a chance to make up the missing Michigan votes.

Another factor is based on exit polls, she's averaged around 62-37 with white voters (she did better with them in NC than IN, despite results).
If you extrapolate over the entire country, she would be winning handily if these demographics prevail. For the GE, the effect of the AA vote is less pronounced as they are a smaller percentage of the voters and his near monopoly of the AA vote won't serve him anywhere near as well.

This is just one of the factors that make BO a better primary candidate than a GE candidate. Others are:

  1. He's got where he is with the MSM solidly behind him ( MSNBC, CNN, Wash Po,...). This won't hold with McCain in the picture.

  2. He'll have the full weight of the republican attack machine against him. I think there's more to be made of the Ayers issue and even Rezko (eg emails showing he colluded with Rezko to buy his house at a discount could surface). Plus lots we don't know about coming out and being blown up, fairly or not.

  3. The public will have tired of his change rhetoric my November

4.Voters will be less inclined to hand over the keys of the White House to a charismatic but inexperienced candidate than hand him the nomination. You see that in European elections (eg UK) where voters vote very differently in by-elections in favor of more radical opposition parties but when the general comes revert back to the devil they know best, the incumbents.

And the real issue most dems care about is not who is better out of BO and HRC (they're both fine) but avoiding the glorious defeat that the dems are renowned for.


by zebedee on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:07:40 PM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

What happened?  Obama didn't win Indiana.  Which if anyone is paying close attention is a real problem.  Reminds me in some ways of how Gore lost Tenn. in the general.

The comparisons between IN and Pa and Ohio are misguided.  Of course HRC's white support in IN dropped compared to those other 2 states because 25% of Indiana is in BO's hometown media market.  25%!  Come on, the expectations placed on her for Indiana in recent days were over the top.  He should have won that state.  no excuse for losing it.


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:33:28 PM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

But I thought that red states don't matter?

You really need to clarify the Clinton campaign's "big states are the only states that matter" motto.  After all, West Virginia isn't very big, so apparently that state doesn't matter either.


by RussTC3 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:35:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exit polling in Indiana - Rush failed. (none / 0)

exit polling in Indiana shows the majority of McCain supporters  (people who intend to vote GOP in Nov.)  who voted in the Democratic primary voted for Obama, not Clinton.  
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/epolls/#INDEM

So much for "operation chaos".  


by chiefscribe on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:58:28 PM EST


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