Barack Obama won the black vote in North Caralina 91-6%. Hillary Clinton won the white vote 59-36%.
If the black preference for Obama had fallen in the same range as the white preference for Clinton, she would have picked up the difference between 6% and 36%, which would have amounted to 30% of the black vote.
Since African-American voters comprised 33% of the vote in the North Carolina Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton would have received another 30% x 33%, or 10% of the total vote, and Obama would have received 10% less.
Instead of 56-40% in favor of Obama, the vote would have been 50-46% in favor of Clinton, and Hillary Clinton would have won the North Carolina Democratic primary.
In Indiana the story is more or less the same, with Obama winning the black vote 92-8%, and Clinton winning the white vote 60-40%. A split of the black vote similar to the split in the white vote would have given Clinton an additional 32% of the black vote, which comprised 15% of the voters, and this would have given her another 5% of the toal vote.
Instead of winning 51-49%, Hillary Clinton would have won by 56-44%, which is just the sort of double-digit win that the army of pundits declared she needed to remain "competitive."
In the Ohio Democratic primary, the color splits were 89-11% and 61-38%, and similar splits would have given Ms. Clinton another 27% of the black vote, which comprised 19% of the total vote. This would have added another 5% of the total vote to Hillary Clinton's side of the ledger, subtracted the same from Obama, and instead of winning Ohio by 54-44%, Ms. Clinton would have won the state 59-39%, a 20 point blow-out.
In many states where Mr. Obama won by large margins, similar splits among black and white voters would have reduced the margin to single digits, and eliminated most of the difference in pledged delegates.
Mr. Obama won in Maryland, for example, where black voters comprised 37% of the total, and split 84-15% for Obama. Clinton won the white vote 52-42%. Similar splits would have given Clinton another 27% of the black vote, or a little more than 9% of the total vote, and Mr. Obama's 61-36% blow-out victory would have turned into 52-45%. It would still be a win, but instead of picking up 60% of Maryland's 70 delegates, or 42 delegates, while Clinton claimed 28, for a 14-delegate difference, the delegates would have been split 37-33, for a 4-delegate difference.
In Pennsylvania, the white vote split 62-38% for Clinton, while the black vote split 89-11% for Obama. Similar splits would have given Ms. Clinton another 27% of the black vote, which was 15% of the total vote. This would have meant an addition 4% of the total vote, and Ms. Clinton would have won Pennsylvania by 58.6% to 41.4% for Mr. Obama, instead of 54.6% to 45.4%. In the actual vote, Pennsylvania's 158 delegates were split 85-73 for Clinton, but with similar splits among black and white voters, the delegates would have split 93-65 for Clinton.
Mr. Obama won the black vote in Louisiana by 86-13% and Ms. Clinton won the white vote 58-30%. The black vote comprised 48% of the total, and similar color splits would have given Ms. Clinton an additional 17% of the black vote, which would have amounted to 8% of the total vote. Mr. Obama would still have won Louisiana with 49.4% to 43.6% for Hillary Clinton, instead of 57.4% to 35.6%, but instead of picking up 12 delegates in a 34-22 split, Mr. Obama would have received only 30 pledged delegates to 26 for Ms. Clinton.
Although the black-white vote splits followed a different pattern in a few states like Vermont and New Mexico, nationwide Mr. Obama has won 81.7% of the black vote, while Ms. Clinton wins 54% of the white vote. Polarization of black voters has increased since John Edwards dropped out of the race, with Mr. Obama typically winning around 90% of the black vote since the beginning of March.
In the last 10 primaries, Mr. Obama has won by large majorities and lost by narrow margins, but without polarized black block voting in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Louisiana, Indiana, Maryland, and elsewhere, the picture would be exactly reversed, with Hillary Clinton winning by large margins and losing narrow majorities, and Mr. Obama's lead in delegates would be small or non-existent.
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