by Jonathan Singer, Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:14:32 AM EST
NBC News calls Hillary Clinton the "apparent" winner in Indiana. Fox News is projecting a Clinton victory in the Hoosier state, as is CNN.
Tags: Indiana Primary, Democratic Primaries, 2008, Indiana (all tags)
What a squeaker. All over but the crying, methinks.
I think Lake County just wanted some publicity. The Gary mayor was incomprehensible on CNN but the Hammond mayor was reassuring... If I had a tin foil hat, I'd say they set it up.
Well, they did have massive pre-voting, though I can't help but think someone help up the results a bit for drama's sake.
That's really all I'm saying. Maybe a little coordination puts a forgotten segment of the Chicago suburbs on the awareness map.
Random question:
How do I get this comment off of my feedback page? It won't go away...
Also, how long does it take to get diary rights?
Maybe I'm a little jaded, but I think they held up the Gary vote so that the home edition of newspapers would not show a Clinton victory in Indiana.
And, while I'm at it, the race is over. The Clintons are tough warriors and may never know when its over. But between us kids? Its over.
Actually, they did have 110,000 votes to count. Pretty impressive.
Pity the Gary mayor. It's one of the most depressed cities in America, and how many of us would not whither in the glare of the Nation's need to find out won RIGHT NOW! MORE MORE MORE!
I said somewhere else, however, the Hammond(?) Mayor did awesome. His future began tonight.
He was super cute too, the Hammond mayor.
Indeed.
Hillary's deficit here is insurmountable. It's time to start taking on John McCain.
Yes, please!
With Tim Russert declaring Obama the primary winner its finally over. The only reason it continued after February was because the media was willing to pretend she had a chance.
Russert video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDm3dEz9m mk
Why can't Barack Obama close the deal? Dropping out tomorrow?
Why can't Hillary Clinton close the deal?
The above was dry humor. Barack Obama has closed the deal. Clearly.
My reply was also meant as dry humor.
Maybe it's too late for dry humor. I'm headed to bed.
:)
Same. Good night :)
I keep asking the same thing question about John McCain. why can't he close the deal?
I'm going to assume this is snark.
Hillary wins (in Obama's word) "the tiebreaker." On to West Virginia
She's not asking for money and she's canceled her appearances tomorrow morning.
This one's for the history books.
I got a phone call from her campaign an hour ago asking for a donation. And go to http://hillaryclinton.com -- you'll be diverted to a page asking for a contribution.
websites are automated, that's no indication of anything. Phone banking was also previously planned so they went on.
I question her canceling whatever appearances she had tomorrow. I question that in tandem with her extremely late IN appearance (although it's very reasonable to assume that her campaign team was waiting for assurance IN would go for them). Most of all, I question her and Bill's body language and level of interest during her speech. It was flat.
Can't say it would be surprising if she didn't drop out after next Tuesday's primary.
Just a guess, but I think she stays in at least through Kentucky. She's got two big wins coming up, so no reason to drop out now. But, she'll drop any attacks on the presumptive nominee.
I'll refrain from posting my "money down the toilet" picture.
nt
You guys can keep donating to the campaign if you want, but I'd think twice if I were you. Why? Because I don't think any funds from here on out are gonna be used for ads, etc. Rather, I think they're gonna be used to pay old bills, including paying back the loans Bill and Hillary gave to the campaign. $110 million over the last 7 years... I'd say they can afford to write off the loans.
I don't think you can write off loans made to your own campaign. I think that money's lost and taxable. But they'll be fine. Still $105 million left.
This is an excellent point. I think Obama and Clinton should run this through to at least Oregon- they build a helluva infrastructure everywhere they go, and building a base in KY and WV would truly benefit us for the fall.
I think it's a foregone conclusion Obama is the nominee, but if this has shown us anything, it's that we're all in this together. Join Or Die, as John Adams might say.
Not only that, but it would allow Obama to be put over the top by a state, rather than by superdelegates. If enough supers declare between now and Oregon, a win there could get him to the magic number. That would look alot nicer as a headline than "Superdelegates Put Obama Over the Top"
Is there a "tiebreaker" rule that the DNC hasn't hipped us to? Or should we take "game changer" comment about NC as seriously?
An excellently, dramatic finish.
I'm sort of glad she won; totally didn't love the vibes coming from that last county.
How sketchy was that?
I'm happy with a 20K spread.
I especially didn't love the mayor on TV. Wow. He just seemed like a total fraud and that Clinton Mayor totally ripped him a new one, making him look stupid.
It would've been absolutely heartbreaking to have to deal with the Kennedy-esque calls of rigging an election.
But I do get a sense that this is over with; I mean. I'm seeing people who've made it a point of touting Clinton, saying this is about over with.
And I think it puts to rest the popular vote thing; and the Florida and Michigan thing. Not that they should count but... it's one of those "Well, at least they won't try taking it that way" things, which would really cause the party to go nuclear.
We've finally achieved that threshold where we can appease everyone, even if it's a pander. I seriously dislike seating contests that are that unsanctioned and that unfair but if it'll bridge the gap, then it's a harmless gesture.
I know the people over at Hillaryis44 are really disappointed; and reading this blog over the last twenty-four hours has been sort of an awakening for me - that it's not fun to see people have their expectations dashed.
It's not been fun for me for two months and I'd thought I'd be elated to see them dashed for the first time; but I was not.
And in realizing that, I realize I'm not so inhumane as to take pleasure in someone's defeat even if I believe Senator Clinton has run a campaign that has personally made me angry at times.
And that the potential for being pleased in it was ignored by me; we often forget that the anonymity of the internet allows our more primal characteristics to take ahold of us; that we forget that there is another human being across "those tubes."
And I realize tonight, that, Senator Clinton and her supporters are no more dogmatic than us; they hurt like us.
And so tonight, I want to congratulate Senator Clinton on a win in the Indiana Primary.
And I want to say that I will troll-rate people who take a vindictive pleasure in seeing people's expectations dashed. That isn't being a Democrat. That isn't being magnanimous.
That's being human.
I agree 100%.
This is actually why I came here in the first place a few weeks back.
I saw that Obama was the likely nominee since February, but that Clinton supporters would need a hand of friendship to come to terms with it.
I've had my arguments with folks here, but I've tried to keep the perspective that we're all on the same team.
Time for bed, anyway. Good night.
Hillary's mayor was a jerk for openly implying skullduggery -- especially when minutes later the results flooded in, mostly from the part of Lake County OUTSIDE Gary.
But it doesn't matter now except that there will probably be a petty grudge between them for a long time, to the detriment of the citizens.
This was a beautiful comment.
Wish I could give you a 4.
well, that's great. It doesn't change the fact that I'm glued to this computer until the last bit of action has taken place for the night. despite a final crit I have tomorrow for my final class of the year...
Obama supporter here, but if Obama had won this one, there'd be huge acrimony and claims of vote fraud... especially near Chicago.
I'm happy with a ~20K split in votes leading to a delegate tie but a moral victory for both of them: Clinton gets the win and Obama proves that he's not as weak as some might think for fighting her to a tie.
I had the same thought. When Kos was joking that the Gary totals were a fix: "If this was legit, that's some serious machine action at work. If it's not legit, that's some serious machine action at work," it was obvious that the single delegate those 20 k votes would have given Obama were not close to worth the idiot whispering campaign that would have been all over every where tomorrow if the Gary votes had put him over the top.
Not much of a win, but a win nonetheless. Bravo to Senator Clinton for that, it was hard-fought.
Let me be the first to say that the only reason Clinton has managed to survive this long is the supporters, like the one's I've met around here worked their asses off for her. I hope Senator Clinton realizes and appreciates that.
I don't know what tomorrow will bring, but I'm proud to be associated with you guys, and will be proud to work my ass off for the nominee this fall.
Chris Matthews is going to be harping on the Operation Chaos Dittocrat vote tomorrow.
He'll be saying that she definitely lost without Rush Limbaugh.
That's going to be messy.
I would be very pleased to go back through the entire campaign and, based on exit polls, "subtract" all votes make by non-Democrats and recalculate the results.
Honestly we'll never know for sure how many are sincere and how many are trying to screw with us.
The exit polls are helpful though - 7% of Hillary's voters said they would not be happy with her as the nominee - and maybe that's an underestimate, as I would presume some Operation Chaos voters would be embarrased to admit what they were doing.
Except that I am technically a "non-Democrat", as a self-identified independent voter. That's why I hate Limbaugh so much nowadays. He takes away from people who actually want to contribute the whole way and see this thing go national, and win in November.
I wouldn't. I don't support Chris Matthews in this endeavor. Rush Limbaugh doesn't matter in this.
He's who he is and that won't change. Sometimes we wish he would die or get shot or something; and I know people will take a sick sort of happiness as they did with Falwell when he does pass but we must deal with him.
And dealing with him means, we count the votes as is.
Senator Clinton won Indiana. Period. Done. It was close but a win's a win. Guam was a win. And I won't spin it
We must treat the sanctity of a majority as if it were unanimous. If she won by one vote; she won.
And we'll let the campaigns spin it in the morning; for tonight, let's just say we split the W's and made the Democratic party stronger.
We will have a fair victory that we can champion this November.
Thankfully, the Dems are also smart enough to have proportional representation, so that sort of vote gaming has basically no effect, even in an incredibly close race. A win is a win, but more importantly, roughly x percent of the vote is a delegate whether it is the first x percent or the last x percent.
Exactly. I wonder where Rush got the idea for Democrat-for-a-day? Hmmm.
Please be nice. I believe that was a single Obama supporter and a strategy that was largely discovered to not really exist.
Senator Obama hasn't made it a secret that he wishes to court Independents and Republicans; I believe he only is in the lead because of them. This is a primary for President and we do need crossovers.
I won't cry Limbaugh and I'll decry all who try to use it as a tactic; but tonight, we need to just mellow.
Tomorrow, we'll resume battle; tonight, our candidates both enjoyed victory.
(your name here)
Perhaps, but the easy response is that it didn't really matter. The difference between winning by a hair and losing by a hair is a couple of delegates and bragging rights, which really are just symbolic at this point.
I'm not happy about it, I just know he's going to do it because he was talking about it all night.
I wished he'd shut up about it; you know it only inflates Limbaugh's ego even more.
Hopefully it'll inflate so much that it pops.
Exactly. Close is good enough in horseshoes, hand grenades and Democratic primaries.
Obama can walk away with clean hands knowing no one will cry voter fraud now. This may also keep Clinton in through KY and WV which, as Kos suggested, might be good. I think this is good. Either way, knowing that this whole thing is winding down is very encouraging.
Hillary's presence in the campaign would have always been good without the attempts to tear down Obama, often parroting GOP lines of attack against Democrats.
Hopefully she'll now finish it out with dignity while going after McBush, and help her party and country in the process.
Zogby predicts the wrong winner once again. And have you noticed that every time he screws up it's in favor of Obama?
hmmm.
This was within the margin of error. And he got North Carolina right. Better than SUSA at the very least.
Zogby came closer than almost anyone else in Indiana and North Carolina. Everyone else overestimated Clinton by a lot. He overestimated Obama by a little.
I love how Clinton supporters (maybe Obama supporters, I ain't seen it but whatever) have imposed our partisan boundaries onto a pair of above-average polling outfits.
Yes, past performance can be a future indicator; but all these outfits are constantly adapting their methodology because it is not in their business interest to push any kind of agenda... it would be ridiculous for a company to put itself out of business that way.
SUSA isn't the Clinton pollster, Clinton people just liked the result better. Likewise Zogby isn't Obama, and his success or failure is entirely seperate from the outcome you personally perferred.
It's just a poll. And they're meaningless just... about... NOW!
Well, not completely meaningless. I'm still preparing my NC and IN predictions. Should have them available shortly.
Zogby was i think the closest pollster this time around.
Having earlier complained about Lake County (Goddamn Lake County), a moment of empathy took over listening to the Gary, IN mayor defend what was happening at Lake County -- which I imagine was just general incompetance rather than anything malicious.
Basically, Gary is about as poor as a city gets. An NPR report I heard last week described diner customers finishing a previous diner's food -- because why waste meat?
No county that poor is going to be able to handle the national media spotlight and resulting pressure. I'm sure 1/2 to a 1/3 of random state counties are similarly incapable of satisfying the Blitzer's hunger for numbers. Reargh!
Again, if malfeasance happened, then may the fires of Hades pour, uh, up upon them. But if it was just an economically shuttered city somehow becoming the most important zip code in the nation for 3 hours -- and not being up to the task -- my heart goes out.
Still, that suburban city mayor was doing great. Who's that guy. Get him on the bench, Clintons!
Hillary's mayor was pretty tacky in his denunciations.
Oh, absolutely. He was a total prick. But that's still a resume plus in American politics.
Yes. I agree. I do feel sympathy for him now that we've lost the state and there isn't that lingering doubt.
But I think he knew what he was doing in that he basically undercut Senator Clinton being able to spin in the evening; it's like allowing Senator Obama five hours to direct the narrative in the media.
Something that pleases me on some level but at the same time, calls into question my empathy for what seemed very political.
I hope that it was just an issue; he did seem like a nice guy but he got shamed on national TV in what would have been strong evidence for the conspiracy theorist type if Indiana had fallen into Senator Obama's hands.
So I'm on the fence; but I guess I'll err with being sympathetic to just another city that struggles in the richest nation on earth.
I was delighted at the thought of the Democrats, once again, finding a way to FRAK THIS UP.
By delighted, I mean sobbing. I'm such a chickenshit, but I am glad she won. I think anything to heal the wounds -- and avoid new ones -- is great by me.
from? I hear they won't count them for over a week.
The Indiana voter ID law prevented young and old voters alike from voting and I'm sure in large numbers. I haven't seen any numbers yet though. You have a link to any?
who were denied a chance to vote. What a horrible law upheld by the SC!
The 21st century poll tax. Studies show that a large number of the elderly, who a reliable voters, and the young and the poor, do not have ID's for various reasons and will be unable to vote.
An article discussing it a bit.
Indiana RCP: Clinton 49-44% +5 Result(100%): Clinton 51-49% +2
North Carolina RCP: Obama 50-42% +8 Result (100%): Obama 56-42% +14 (Gravel 1%)
There's no question which candidate exceeded expectations.
Ah, but according to the WashPost, Clinton is now saying you need 2209 delegates to win the nomination. (That counts FL and MI) She says it would be funny for 48 states to pick the nominee. And she's the one harping about electoral college math. Forty-eight states can do anything they damn well please! They can choose nominees, presidents, even ratify constitutional amendments! For now they're still trying not to die--or pretending they are.
"Clinton is now saying you need 2209 delegates to win the nomination."
After tonight, what Clinton says won't matter with those who do matter -- the SDs and party officials who will decide the outcome from here.
You mean, after tonight what the voters say won't matter. Just as planned.
You might have missed this, but the voters have already settled on Obama.
Yes, I agree. I supported Clinton throughout, but now I think her chances are finally gone.
You might have missed this, but there actually are real voters who actually really voted in Michigan and Florida. Not to mention 6 upcoming states.
And MI & FL will be seated in some manner and it won't substantively change the race.
Do you think 48 states + DC and the territories didn't matter in 2004? If so, does that bother you?
What she says always matters ... to many of us. Rein in the haughty attitude, because it will bite you in the long run. Theres lots of time, yet.
There's always lots of time. but not for hillary's campaign. She lost back all of the slight ground she gained in PA. She can't win the pledged delegate count, popular vote, or number of states. She doesn't have any cards to play for the SDs after yesterday. Obama now holds them all.
Go ahead feel bad for a few days, but you'll have no choice but to conclude, as Hillary must, that it's over unless the goal is to injure Obama's impending win over McCain.
I hate to say it, but the reason she was pushed over the top was Limbaugh voters, who made up about 2% of the vote in her favor. Now don't take this is an attack, I'm not claiming that this wasn't a valid victory, I just merely mean it doesn't look good when the people who pushed you over the edge did so in order to hurt you, especially since Jerome has always put so much influence on his claim that more Democrats have voted for Clinton than Obama, and that this discredits his lead in Popular votes and the legitimacy of his argument.
Doesn't matter. They'll (almost) split the delegates.
Will people remember this as a Clinton win? Dunno.
"Carrie Budoff Brown emails that with only a handful of states left to vote in the primary election, Sen. Barack Obama will spend at least some of his time over the next month campaigning in general election states, chief strategist David Axelrod said Tuesday night.
"I don't think we are doing to spend our time solely in primary states," Axelrod said aboard the campaign plane from Raleigh to Chicago.
When asked whether that means Obama will campaign in general election states, he said: "I guess you can infer that from what I said."
Axelrod said the campaign would still visit each of the remaining primary states, but there is limited ground yet to cover. There are more undecided superdelegates up for grabs than pledged delegates in the remaining states.
"Senator McCain has basically run free for some time now," Axelrod said. "Everybody is eager to get on with this. We are not going to take anything for granted. But we are also going to spend time addressing broader issues."
Via Ben Smith
Time to go to Florida finally! And Michigan!
Yep, I'd expect a deal shortly to have them sat.
I also think it is time to go to Europe, Indonesia, Africa, and Mexico.
ehmm...let's just start by leaving Iraq, and staying at home for a while
And stop by Guam along the way, to say thanks for the victory.
Howard Fineman reported on MSNBC that Obama will make a deal about MI and FL now that he's secured the nomination.
Tim Russert reported that Obama will also make a deal with Hillary to pay off her campaign debts (it seems she's had to loan herself money again.) in return for her either dropping out or campaigning against McCain instead of him.
In the interest of accuracy, Russert's comments were clearly rumor (another Clinton loan) and speculation (Obama to pay it off).
If memory serves, it sounded to me like he had actually spoken to someone inside the Obama campaign.
If Clinton will campaign in the remaining primary states against McCain (possibly with Obama's financial help) it would be a tag team match against him for a change, instead of a tag team against the Democratic nominee Obama.
McCain would crumple under their combined attack.
Maybe they can finally have that one last debate Hillary's been calling for... except invite McCain to participate, too.
Only if Hillary agrees to gang up on McCain rather than Obama.
Yeah, that was my point.... but I guess we better get it in writing. ;p
It looks so far from last night and today as if she's laying aside the hatchet she's been using against Obama.
did you see any printed signs asking for "help" with voting, distributed by Obama?
Is this illegal? I think it is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiM-6ZnW2 LI
Did this happen in NC as well?
Look. Obama didn't complain about getting 0% in some precincts of Harlem. So you should just drop any silly charges about Obama cheating. You're only helping McBush.
Indiana African-Americans went 93% for Obama state-wide. Gary is a very segregated city, very near Obama's home base in Chicago, and I'll bet that some precincts are essentially all-black. Under these circumstances, it shouldn't suprise anyone, or suggest fraud, to see a precinct going 95% for Obama in Gary.
No it shouldn't. And we're way past the point where Democrats should be dreaming up excuses to attack Obama.
Its a VIDEO from an ELECTION site. Its illegal, and whether or not his campaign did it or not should be questioned.
We've already had a president who didn't get questioned for his actions. We cannot stoop to the level of the Bushies.
If you have a fucking problem with that, too bad.
Ånd it has a name.....DEFEAT.
Its interesting that Indiana and North Carolina wound up being the primaries which decided the nomination. My guess is that Clinton drops out soon (next few days) because she is out of money. She still wins WV and KY but by lower margins than she would have received campaigning.
Afterwards, all of us unite behind Obama, and our party goes on to win the general election. I will do the best I can to donate at least $1000.00 to Obama's ge campaign. Its time to focus our collective efforts against McCain. If unity is accomplished we shall not fail. We will crush McCain, so long as we are united.
IN & NC didn't decide the nomination. The February states did. Clinton lost this race on Feb. 5th. The inevitability strategy, the dismissal of all her rivals until it was too late, the lack of field organization, being surpassed in fundraising, ignoring the caucus states... I was just thinking about this last night, trying to think back 6 months and retrace how we got where we are. Not just bad strategy on Clinton's part, but a wholesale failure to read the moment accurately in the nation. Or, just being the wrong person; Obama is the right person at the right time. He stood for hope and unity at a time when that's what Americans want. He managed to neutralize or turn a potential weakness--his perceived lack of experience--into an advantage by pitting it against change at a time when people want that too and he could effectively offer himself as its agent. I think that alone is remarkable; in most other years the "establishment" candidate would have dispensed easily with someone like Obama. The national polls last fall showed Clinton well ahead, with Obama and Edwards fighting for a distant 2nd. To the extent she could've done well this year, Clinton blew it with a poor campaign. Edwards turned out to be irrelevant. Obama ran a great campaign (hardly flawless, but great) and ran when the moment fit him well. I still find it remarkable and somewhat hard to believe, but it also suggests to me that he'll be able to beat McCain and break through this 50-50 divide that's paralyzed the country since 2000. I'm still having some trouble envisioning what an Obama presidency will really look like. It should be better than any we've had in my lifetime. It makes me really proud to be an American, something that especially after living abroad I don't say often.
Honest assessment and most compelling perspectives I've heard about this cycle.Thank you.
In all honesty, I understand that Obama fills a major vacuum which Bush and Co created and 9-11 exacerbated. I respect and commend his enthusiasm (and strategy).
I however, still feel like we take a major gamble with an Obama nomination because in my opinion, America doesn't need hope. Our country needs time proven and innovated ideas, and a tenacious leader to bring this country from its all time lowest moral standing in recent global history to its place a true leader in Democracy.
Hillary offers sound solutions and a strength and spirit of world leader.
I'm STILL not sure what Obama really offers other than amazingly delivered speeches. I have read his books, studied his website, and really watched his career (and votes in IL and DC). It worries me that the GOP can still exploit this deficiency and emerge victorious in November.
Now we're starting to sound like an actual discussion group.
I share your uneasy fear of the unknown with the Obama candidacy, but I also have an uneasy fear of déjà vu with Hillary vs. McCain. Hillary's a much better candidate than Kerry, but McCain could be a much better candidate than Bush, and with Hillary, we're dealing with the same red-blue impasse as before.
In any case, we're only going to find out how one of the matchups turns out. The important thing is that we do everything possible to prove each others' doubts wrong.
I don't think McCain will be as good a candidate as Bush (I don't think Bush in 08 would be as good as Bush 04 or 00). I'm not sure Hillary would be better than Kerry either--she starts off with too many people hating her guts and refusing to ever consider voting for her. I feel like she could win 52-48 but Obama could win 55-45.
Thank you. :) I've been a strong Obama supporter since he got in the race, and I'll never deny that nominating and electing him carry risk. Yes, there is a gamble involved. But I think that's part of what Americans do when we're at our best--when we act from hope rather than fear. FDR was a major risk in 1932, as was JFK in 1960. Even Bill Clinton in 1992, and I remember the palpable hope and optimism of that year/campaign. I do think we need hope. To get past fear, cynicism, disillusionment and detachment; to play to the best parts of ourselves and take on real problems in serious ways.
I think Obama offers authenticity; people find him honest and trustworthy consistently in polls. There is a sense that he is real, and that is supremely important in politics even though most politicians never seem to grasp it.
I think he offers the possibility of an improved politics which is a little less interested in panders, oversimplifications, quick fixes, cynical exploitations of false divisions (never forget RFK warned us we can't afford "the vanity of false distinctions"), and the corrupting influence of big money. He offers not just better policies that cleanly break from the Bush years, but at a deeper level, changing and hopefully reforming the way business gets done in Washington altogether. I hardly pretend he is perfect; even the purest politician (which he is not) has to make some compromises for self-preservation, and to win elections. But to stand his
