MyDD :: Team Obama sleep well...

Team Obama sleep well...

by DTaylor, Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:01:37 AM EST

Tomorrow we will know who the next president will be.

Obama by 20 pts in NC and winning IN by 10 pts and its VERY hard for Hillary to make up the difference.

Obama by 6 in NC and losing IN by 10 and its very hard for Obama to have lead in popular vote at the end of the race. That coupled with a 1 million vote deficit among registered democrats and Hillary will have a real solid mandate.

Whatever the vote totals Obama needs tomorrow to be a victory for him.

If he wins both states by 1 pts its not a victory and the Hillary momentum story continues and the next batch of states start to really run up the score for Hillary in terms of popular vote.

So if the polls hold up this is the last night that an Obama supporter who knows what is going will feel no pressure =)

Night Night.

Tags: Obama, Hillary (all tags)

Permalink :: 62 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Wow. Nice spin.

If Obama wins both states by a vote each, Hillary will be finished. The SD's will flock to Obama, and she'll be out of the race within a week.

If they split, very little changes. The math is still uphill for Hillary, but she keeps some momentum.

If she wins both then she almost pulls even in terms of her odds for the nomination.

Thanks for the laugh though.

by KevinT on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:07:56 AM EST

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Popular vote.

If Hillary has the popular vote and Obama is tanking all kinds of things happen

1) Florida and Michigan count and Hillary is 56 delegates closer

2) Edwards pledged delegates...remember them? They have to vote. If Hillary wins popular vote they are free to vote for her. 19-28 delegates

3) Hillary is on track after tomorrow to win something like 24 pledged more than Obama in the remaining race.

4) Now that the race is in the ~50 delegate range Hillary only needs like 55% of the undeclared supers

Again I will say NC is Obama's LAST chance.

Nite Nite

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:29:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Are you sure you're not already asleep. Because it sure seems like you're dreaming.

1. If Florida and Michigan are counted (which is about 10% likely), it would have to be some sort of a compromise, which would net Hillary maybe 25 delegates.

2. Most Edwards supporters lean towards Obama. Just look at the Iowa conventions recently.

3. That's probably true.

4. Even given your unrealistic dream scenario, she is still down 50 delegates. Under a more realistic scenario, she would still be down 80-100 SD's.

And although the SD's could break for her, we have seen absolutely no evidence that this is likely. Most of the stories on undecided SD's show them leaning towards Obama or following the will of the voters. Also, a large number of the undecideds are add-on delegates which will split pretty evenly although probably favor Obama slightly.

by KevinT on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:44:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

1) Hillary has the votes. Florida and Michigan 100% =)

2) Obama is tanking and the decision will be made at the end of that process.

4) And if Obama is REALLY down. DEFECTIONS.

55% supers for Hillary if Edwards backs her.

65% supers for Hillary if Edwards doesn't

If she wins the popular vote she is gonna win this thing.

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:02:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Strongly insisting things does not make them true.

1)"Florida and Michigan 100%" is not an argument, it is a battle cry, and not one likely to do any good for her campaign. I know it is the linchpin of a Hillary victory, so I'll ignore it.

2) How many defections have occurred from Obama so far? And how many from Hillary?

By the clinton camp's metric, which excludes caucuses completely, yeah, she probably will win the popular vote. But that number is meaningless and frankly, insulting to the millions of citizens in caucus states? What, they don't deserve a vote or to be counted in any way? Astounding.

[ Donate to Barack Obama ]

by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:08:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

1) =) You haven't looked at the rules committee have you

2) Now the popular vote is insulting?

Democracy gets thrown under the buss for Obama?

Hello Democracy say hello to Grandmother who raised him.
Have you met the Reverend who was his inspiration for entering politics?

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:43:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

1. Yes I have. I just don't believe it will happen.

2. Yes the popular vote is insulting. It only counts primary states. There are millions of people living in caucus states who are not represented by those figures. How can you possibly tak about throwing democracy under the bus when you try to 'disenfranchise' all those millions!? It's outrageous.

[ Donate to Barack Obama ]

by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:43:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Disenfranchise all the people who didn't vote because of the caucus being a 2 hour affair?

The same people who would have caused Obama's margins to be 12-34% lower in those states???????

by DTaylor on Wed May 07, 2008 at 12:06:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

suddenly (none / 0)

it is moot since after tonight, Obama has the popular vote total even including MI&FL once again.

It's still a dishonest number.

[ Donate to Barack Obama ]

by semiquaver on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:18:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (2.00 / 1)

Tomorrow will be a split victory and we go on to the next contest.

The next round of contest are coming back to my neck of the woods in dixie which is just hunkey dorey.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:08:02 AM EST

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (2.00 / 1)

Fair enough. A split victory does nothing but decrease the available delegates Hillary has to make up ground.

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:22:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (2.00 / 1)

I have to agree I think it will be a split and it will keep on going.

by Politicalslave on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:24:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama will lock up a pledged delegate victory (none / 0)

tomorrow, essentially.

Obama will only need 15 PDs to clinch a pledged delegate victory if we use pollster.com averages for tomorrow's results (and split PDs proportionally):

Pledged delegates needed after 5/6:
(using pollster.com averages for NC and IN)

Obama: 15
Clinton: 172

Even in a highly optimistic scenario for HRC

PDs needed after 5/6:
(using SUSA predictions for NC and IN + give all the undecideds and a 5% switch to HRC)

Obama: 36
Clinton: 151

she would need a whopping over 80% of the remaining PDs after tomorrow.

Super delegates are NOT going to overturn a pledged delegate victory by Obama (except is extreme conditions which do not and will not exist).

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:33:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Tomorrow is Big D-DAy for both Obama & Clinton.

Either Obama takes care of business & unofficially wraps up the nomination by defeating Clinton in both IN or NC

A Split, which does nothing but move on to WV

Clinton Wins both IN & NC and cause the Near Imminent Collapse of the Obama primary campaign.

by latinfighter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:12:51 AM EST

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (2.00 / 1)

Why would losing a couple of states cause an immanent collapse for Obama when 12 straight losses in Feb did not have that effect for Hillary?

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:19:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Hillary friendly states are stacked at the end of the calendar and Obama's were stacked in the middle.

Its easy to say sure Obama won 12 small states but Hillary is going to win Texas, Ohio, PA, Indiana, West Virginia, etc

Obama has montana and Oregon left as firewalls. After tomorrow.

Hillary has WV, KY, PR,

He is slipping among white males.

That slipping and more importantly Hillary's rise will hurt him in Montana and Oregon.

Also as we near the end Hillary can start talking about Florida and Michigan without risking offending voters in Obama friendly states that and the popular lead will play into Obama's losing streak.

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:35:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

So if these are Hillary friendly states than it is hardly a game changer if she wins most of them. So long as Obama maintains the delegate lead, we can be sure that more states are Obama-friendly than Hillary-friendly, and that will be the ballgame for Clinton.

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:46:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Again Popular vote and late winning streak== Obama collapsing.

Obama collapsing == Vice President Obama

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:03:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

If Hillary wins the nomination, can you imagine the cognitive dissonance some of these people are going to experience? They don't seem to know it's still a competitive race. Very weird.

by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:10:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

No I still think the race is competitive in the sense that I believe Hillary still has a small chance to win. The congnitive dissonence, however, belongs with those who think that merely by winning NC Hillary will cause a collapse in Obama's campaign. That is sheer fantasy.

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:15:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Hillary is down depending on how you count either 100,000 or 150,000 votes in the popular vote.

That gives Obama 2/3 of undecided votes in Michigan and Counts caucus voters and all 50 states.

Without a net vote gain tonight in his 2 states Obama faces 20 pt defeats in WV, KY etc.

If Hillary wins the majority of the contests from Texas on AND has the popular vote AND has the momentum AND has the votes on the rules committee to get Florida counted and Michigan counted at 100% AND Obama has demographics problems...

Yes he literally will be losing the race tomorrow night.

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:22:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

There are a lot of people in your camp - indeed, even in this thread - who are quite convinced that Hillary cannot win. While I don't think it's likely the race will be over tomorrow night, if Obama doesn't win NC (and I think he wil by six points but then I'm a lousy prognosticator on primary issues), he will have a nearly impossible task in front of him.

Personally, I'm not expecting anything to be resolved and have no emotional need of that either. I'm content for this to play out to the convention because McCain can't go after the two of them, and risk having two well-funded nominees spending money attacking him.

by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:30:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

No one except a few Hillary fans believe that Hillary should be deemed the popular vote winner by virtue of counting the unofficial elections in MI and FL. And fact that a runner slows down a bit near the finish line does not mean he doesn't win if he racked up such a lead in the beginning of the race to beat his opponent notwithstanding his late slowdown.

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:13:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

American's count voters.

If Obama has fewer voter's support he should expect to lose.

American's understand that.

Its relatively new to think that because you don't like the results you can not count Florida and Michigan.

Well I guess Bush did it too.

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:25:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (2.00 / 1)

The Democratic Nomination isn't decided by Popular Vote and no Superdelegates have issued any statements considering it a metric they care about.

Just like the Electoral College, the Democratic Primary is decided not by Popular Vote but by selection of delegates, another word for electors in this instance, who will likely, having been vetted, fully support their candidates.

Since the Rules and By-Laws committee will likely have an equal amount of Obama and Clinton supporters, or perhaps even more Obama supporters, nothing will get done there and the unsanctioned and unfair primaries of Florida and Michigan will either receive half-delegations or nothing at all until Senator Obama seats them at the convention.

Superdelegates show no inclination of trending towards Obama, Obama not having lost any superdelegates that I'm aware of and having in fact picked up defectors from the Clinton camp.

Just today he netted 4(probably 6) to Clinton's .5.

Reality has a well known liberal bias and math can't be trumped by the media narrative spun to make money.

Senator Obama is inevitable.

And America isn't a Democracy and we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking so - it's a Democratic Republic. Senator Clinton, three months ago said the very same thing. The popular vote doesn't matter; this is a race about delegates.

If you want to shift the goal posts that's fine; Senator Obama and his camp have stuck to the same story: the delegates, the delegate math and the overall delegate count.

Just don't expect anyone not to laugh and you can just watch as Superdelegates filter to the candidate whose lead is insurmountable.

If winning the popular vote made a strong candidate, then we wouldn't have George W. Bush. I doubt Senator Obama loses the popular vote but just because it's something to cling to - another worthless metric that gives some avenue of hope for a victory that's out of reach - doesn't make it trump the official rules of the Democratic Party.

2024.5 to elect.

50%+1 delegates will be achieved by Senator Obama on May 20th.

That's when things get interesting.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:37:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Its actually completely un-American and undemocratic to attempt to count elections in which campaigning wasn't allowed and in which not all of the candidates were on the ballot.

You know who else holds elections without campaigns and without other candidates on the ballot? Dictators.

And there's a reason that the media isn't reporting the popular vote or the delegates w/ FL and MI included, and its not because they're in the tank for Obama. Its because its a complete fraud and anyone not blinded by their support can see right through it.

by KevinT on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:40:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

"Its actually completely un-American and undemocratic to attempt to count elections in which campaigning wasn't allowed and in which not all of the candidates were on the ballot."

Its undemocratic and very dictator like is to pull your name off the ballot and then expect the state not to count because of it.

Either Obama can hang with democracy or he can't.

If he can't then he needs to find another vocation.

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:11:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

The Democratic Party said those states wouldn't count; both nominees then proceeded to pander to Iowa and New Hampshire in various ways.

If taking her name off the ballot would have won Senator Clinton Iowa, she'd have done it.

Again. There's the fictional world you live in where Senator Clinton's ideas and beliefs translate into something.

But then there's the cold, hard reality that Senator Obama is winning in all those metrics Senator Clinton keeps discarding and reusing, will finish ahead in them and is receiving superdelegates at a 3 to 1 clip.

That's what is called reality. You can post your version on every diary, on every post but you can't escape it.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:25:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Tomorrow reality will speak loud and clear.

Sleep well

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:04:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

bullshit (none / 0)

every four years there are multiple states where there is no campaigning and the voters never see a presidential candidate. Those solid red and blue states go to the polls and vote and their votes count.

Besides Obama did campaign in Florida and his surrogates campaigned in MI.

He is a vote suppressor, a disenfranchiser of democrats. I'll never vote for him.

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:42:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: bullshit (none / 0)

I am starting to lean your way...

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:43:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Americans count votes in elections that are supposed to count and don't count them otherwise. Are you saying that these contests were supposed to count?

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:37:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

I am saying that democracy isn't optional.

Its a right.

I have a right for my nominee to be democratically elected.

I will not give up that right.

If the democrats do not produce a democratically elected nominee I will not relent in my right to vote for a democratically elected nominee.

I do not accept that Republican's in Alaska should have 10 times the say in picking than myself or that I should have more say than a voter in Michigan or Florida.

And I reject the MSNBCs of the world for pushing to destroy democracy

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:47:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

So if a compromise is made and FL and MI get seated in some agreeable fashion but Hillary still trails pledged delegates and pop vote, then you'll oppose any efforts by Hillary overturn these results using SD's --they being undemocratic and all--right?

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:15:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We know you're desperate but, (none / 0)

the popular vote means nothing in the Democratic nominating process. It means something in the republican process, and maybe you're really just a DINO, but just like in the general election, popular vote means NOTHING.
"Desperado, why won't you come to your senses"

"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Hillary's husband

by venician on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:37:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We know you're desperate but, (none / 0)

OMG I am a republican for wanting democracy...

The popular vote > Democratic party > Hillary > Obama

I can't believe so many of you are showing your true colors so easily.

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Also Nebraska and SD. He should do well there.

by Becky G on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:44:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (2.00 / 1)

Obama by 15% in North Carolina. Hillary by 5% in Indiana. That's what it'll be...no real impact on the race. Why? Cause this thing has been over for a while now.

by gorebeatbush2 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:19:22 AM EST

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

What would be the delegate breakdown according to your prediction?

by Politicalslave on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:25:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Great analysis Nick.

Does your mom make such great opinions on the 9th circuit?

by reggie44pride on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:44:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Yeah, please sleep well.

Because if Hillary wins in NC, its over for Obama.

by optimisticBoy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:21:22 AM EST

Oh a fairy tail! (2.00 / 1)

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:28:11 AM EST

Re: Oh a fairy tail! (none / 0)

I didn't know fairies had tails!

(sorry, I couldn't resist, no one thinks I'm funnier than I do) ;)

John McCain smells like mothballs.

by asherrem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:45:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

I'm pretty confident they'll both stay in the race regardless of what happens, so I will be sleeping well. Thank you :)

John McCain smells like mothballs.

by asherrem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:33:32 AM EST

If... (2.00 / 1)

I had some ham I would make a sandwich...if I had some bread.
If wishes were horses beggars would ride.

She can't win.

Ida B. The rule is perfect: in all matters of opinion our adversaries are insane.-Mark Twain

by Ida B on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:43:09 AM EST

Re: If... (2.00 / 1)

LOL - Sure she can. She's only 16 delegates behind Obama. She can easily win.

by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:07:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No pressure here (1.50 / 2)

No matter what happens I'm at peace with it all. I now know that Senator Clinton couldn't have won without dirty, cheap, low, republican tricks. And if she believes that this is the path to leading this country, then it's fine by me. She can have it.

_____________
changiness

by lizardbox on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:53:11 AM EST

Re: No pressure here (2.00 / 1)

you have reached acceptance...

Well done grasshopper

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:05:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No pressure here (1.00 / 1)

You know if one day I have kids, I'll point to Hillary Clinton for an example of what not to be like when they grow up.

Grasshopping away.

_____________
changiness

by lizardbox on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:16:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No pressure here (2.00 / 2)

LOL - god forbid, your children grow up to be aggressively fine students who, from the moment they finish graduate school, tackle projects that benefit others with less than themselves.

Hillary has a superb progressive record of creating projects and policy that benefit lower income Americans. I'd be proud if my kids grew up with her resume. Immensely proud. Working at the Yale Children's Hospital. Writing Children Under the Law - to this day one of the most frequently cited papers on the subject. Being appointed stafff attorney to the children's Defense Fund and being invited to join the board. Serving as a public defender for indigent defendents. Being appointed to the Board of the Legal Services Corporation and expanding the budget by millions of dollars during the Reagan years. Finding federal funding to build healthcare facilities for poor, rural Arkansans. Creating a homeschooling program for the parents of toddlers who don't have access to Head Start. Creating a micro-loan program to help poor Arkansans start small businesses. Helping create the Family and Medical Leave Act. Attempting to create a universal helathcare program. Helping create SCHIP. And all of that is off the top of my head, and before she was elected senator.

All of that is stuff to be proud of. Very proud of.

Now, Obama, a Harvard graduate, who is the son of a Harvard graduate and is married to a Harvard graduate, has done very little in his life that actually benefits others. After he leaves law school, his primary accomplishments are winning elections. There is no legislation he carried year after year until it passed. No social service projects that benefitted others. He never led on any important civil rights cases even though he worked at a civil rights firm. He just doesn't do much to help other people and his own platform is afraid to call for universal health care.

I know who I'd my kids to look up to.

by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:40:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No pressure here (none / 0)

Obama's done very little in his life that actually benefits others?

Besides, I don't care much for anything she's done of late. The way she's been running this campaign is repulsive. Ends don't justify the means.

Besides, I'm a tree-huggin' hippie and don't align much with obliteration rhetoric.

_____________
changiness

by lizardbox on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:45:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No pressure here (none / 0)

I'll stand second to none in the hippie category and her obliteeration rhetoric is no different than Obama's. Unlike Obama, she's being going on about the need for diplomacy with Iran for a long, long time. Obama, for the rhetoric, has threatened to attack Pakistan unless they do what we want, and actually caused riots with his rhetoric.

Clinton is saying she will not back away from her plan to remove a brigade a month if she's president. Clearly, she's planning on using the political capital she accrues with that accomplishment to get her universal healthcare plan passed.

Obama and his campaign are backing away from withdrawing troops and don't even have a universal healthcare plan that they're presenting. I don't know what kind of hippie goes with the guy who's talking like McNamara. Really, I don't.

by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:40:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No pressure here (none / 0)

I don't encourage children to look up to politicians, especially ones that have a knack for being dishonest and untrustworthy and whom will do everything to win a contest.

Almost all politicians do it - the American people agree in polls that Senator Clinton just happens to do it so much that her negatives go through the rough.

So no - working hard to pander the American people to win an election and selling your soul and your convictions isn't something I'm going to encourage my children to do.

Examples?

Renditions. Senator Clinton supported them and her husband carried them out.

The war in Iraq. Senator Clinton voted for it without reading the National Intelligence Estimate and then changed her tune when it became politically expedient to do so.

The Kyl-Lieberman amendment; Senator Clinton voted for it without reading the National intelligence Estimate, since for some reason, she's going around acting like Iran's creating Nuclear Weapons when there's no evidence they have any intention to do so. Because it's politically expedient.

A gas tax that everyone except the delusional call a pander and even a bulk of Clinton Supporters call a pander - something the American people will agree with but which will help at the margins with low-information voters who are in dire straits and want to believe something good can happen.

That's Senator Clinton.

Ms. Politically Expedient. Ms. Inevitable, "It'll be done by February 5th", "The Delegates matter", "The Caucuses Don't", "The Popular Vote matters", "The Big States matter" and "Michigan won't count for anything".

Missus. Politically. Expedient.

The role-model for all children who want to live at the expense of others.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:46:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If theres one thing Ive learned (2.00 / 1)

throughout this primary process is that each and every 'THIS is THE primary that counts' moment for whichever candidate, it turns out it was NOT the primary that counted. Ohio was supposed to be, Texas was supposed to be, PA was supposed to be, yet here we are. Nothing has changed relative to where we were before then.

That said, I think Hillary does well tomorrow, but not 'game changing' well. I agree with most here - split decision (again, ugh!).

Whatever the result, there will be 2 to 3 days of breathless punditry and handwringing and whining and moaning and cheering and delusion from all and nothing will have changed significantly. Results will be spun to no end and strained to rational breaking points and things will not have changed significantly.

So this Obama supporter will sleep as well as he does every night, soundly.

by pattonbt on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:55:51 AM EST

Re: If theres one thing Ive learned (2.00 / 1)

This is the last day that really matters.

All the other states are smaller and its just playing for popular vote.

+-10 delegates won't change much.

If Obmama loses the majority of contests going forward even the ones that favor him he will seem a loser.

If Hillary wins the popular and Obama seems a loser and Obama is losing the white vote by anything like what he is winning the black vote then he is done.

And if he is done the super delegate votes will move to where they need to be to protect the party.

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:08:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If theres one thing Ive learned (none / 0)

I believed the last day that mattered was OH/TX and it was over then, but thats my opinion.

I will stand by my comments that the only way Hillary can realistically pull this out with enough 'outward legitimacy' is if Obama craters from PA out. The PA loss was not a crater moment. Clinton winning IN by less than 10 is not a crater moment (still not good for Obama though). Obama losing NC close is not a crater moment (but it would start to let that narrative creep in).

WV, KY, Montana and SD will not be given much weight by pundits and campaigns but I think Oregon and PR hold some mojo, but obviously not enough to really make a difference one way or another.

While we here will each cherry pick and choose whatever argument best suits our candidates needs to win I believe most supers will look at a multitude of factors to choose who they go with - pledged delegates, popular vote, electability, shoe color or a combination thereof.

But I believe if Obama is still standing at the end with the most pledged delegates it will be hard to overturn that, not impossible of course.

But I think Obama has to crater, not just lose. Supers will see that the last states were Clinton country and factor that in to their decision. Obama has to be radioactive if he is the pledged delegate leader to not get the nom. And as long as he is competitive here on out but loses, I think he will be fine.

The problem I have with many pro-Clinton supporters is that they keep saying 'this is the one that matters' while simultaneously having pushed hard 'let all states have their say' which basically ends up meaning 'the only thing that matters is this state now which Hillary will win - the previous states that didnt go for Hillary dont matter anymore'.

The primary is a process and the whole process should be analyzed - not just the outcomes of the last couple of states. Again, if the trend goes crater for Obama, the supers can factor that in. I just dont see it happening (but never say never).

by pattonbt on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:36:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (none / 0)

Obama by 12 in NC, HRC bt 6 in IN. If he keeps scoring supers at the rate he has since PA it should be over sooner than later. Senator Obama is you nominee.

Musgrove for Senate.

by Countificus on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:04:08 AM EST

Has to be one of the most delusional diaries (none / 0)

in a long while.

3:1 Super Delegate accumulation, the same lead in overall delegates that hasn't been narrowed and the 500 or so odd extreme Hillary fans think tomorrow means anything to Senator Obama.

He'll win North Carolina and probably in a blowout. And Senator Clinton will win Indiana.

Doesn't change the reality that - 1) Florida and Michigan aren't going to be seated since they were unfair elections. 2) The Pledged Delegate count won't be "overturned" and 3) Nothing Senator Clinton can do can change this; the only thing that will change it is something Senator Obama does.

Which won't happen.

And I find it funny; it's always the people who have to resort to overconfidence despite being down and pretty much out that give away their desperation.

It was like the Ron Paul crew that kept saying "it'll be the next state" and "he's catching on" and "the momentum's building."

That's just silly. Polls have fluctuated, contests have been run, votes of fair contests have been tabulated. They ran about even; it just so happens that Senator Obama runs just enough ahead that he can't be caught.

So of course. Sleep tight - cause May 20th is when Senator Obama achieves 50%+1 in Pledged Delegates.

And that'll be all she wrote.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:22:56 AM EST

Absolutely nothing that happens Tuesday (none / 0)

will effect the nomination, except maybe to delay the inevitable. Obama will end the season with the most pledged delegates and will be our nominee.

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:15:28 AM EST

Re: Absolutely nothing that happens Tuesday (none / 0)

Do you realize today is Obama's last chance to win the popular vote?

by DTaylor on Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:50:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Team Obama sleep well... (2.00 / 2)