MyDD :: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux

Indiana Results Thread Part Deux

by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:27:52 PM EST

The previous thread is getting a bit full, so time for a second one on the Indiana results. Here are the numbers from CNN:

38,311-vote margin for Clinton

Hillary Clinton: 574,643 votes (52 percent)
Barack Obama: 536,332 votes (48 percent)

With 88 percent of precincts reporting at 11:33 PM Eastern

Still waiting on Gary. For what it's worth, the mayor of the city is suggesting that Obama might have enough votes there to make up his small deficit elsewhere in the state.

Tags: Indiana Primary, Democratic Primaries, 2008, Indiana (all tags)

Permalink :: 187 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

723 percent of precints reporting! Wow! SUPER-RESULTS! lol

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:32:46 PM EST

CNN may be jumping the gun.. (none / 0)

the official results are here:

http://www.in.gov/apps/sos/primary/sos_p rimary08

Hillary Clinton 224138
Barack Obama 169458

Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.

by architek on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:49:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN may be jumping the gun.. (none / 0)

Wow, the governor of Indiana is a goner in the fall. Both the Dem candidates have 25% more votes each than he does!

He's gotta be scared.

Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:58:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The 137,164 voters Purged in Lake Co. (none / 0)

must be causing huge problems for election officials there today.

Now, the voter rolls are supposed to be tidied up prior to each election. Indiana's last general election was in Nov. 2006, and they have had a slew of special and general elections since then. So how have 1.1 million voters -- 26 percent of the current statewide list -- escaped the regularly scheduled voter registration cleanup squads? Who are these million voters and where do they come from?

One quarter-million of them come from just two northwestern Indiana counties: Lake and Porter. Lake County reports purging 137,164 voters and neighboring Porter County cancelled out 124,958 voters.

Lake County, the home of Gary, Indiana, has spawned the Jackson Five and a great old musical (The Music Man) and and has been referred to as "the second most liberal county in America." Lake County has one of the heaviest concentrations of African-American voters that you'll find anywhere in the USA.

BlackBoxVoting.org

McCain's occupation plan will achieve victory when it bestows liberty to the freedom loving people of Iraq and their freedom loving oil.

by Lefty Coaster on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:11:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't like this (none / 0)

The way Lake County is holding out looks bad -- whatever the reason.

by xeju on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:32:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

something stinks (none / 0)

First the mayor is claiming that there are "Enough votes" for Obama to win and secondly they are not reporting any votes whatsoever.

Call it the 6th sense,

I see dead people....voting.

NoSlaves.com | The Economic Populist

by Robert Oak on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:43:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

"This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country -- probably even a lot of the world -- is looking to see what North Carolina decides," - Senator Hillary Clinton, May 2, 2008

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/ 2008/05/clinton-tuesday.html

John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way

by bosdcla14 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:34:22 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (2.00 / 1)

"You know, Sen. Clinton is more favored in Pennsylvania," he added, "and I'm right now a little more favored in North Carolina, so Indiana right now may end up being the tiebreaker. So we want to work very hard in Indiana. While Sen. Clinton has some advantages here, I benefit coming from an adjoining state." -- Senator Barack Obama, Friday, April 11, 2008

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/04/11/878455.aspx

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:36:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Wow, good cite. Hadn't seen that one. Nicely done.

John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way

by bosdcla14 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:40:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

this presumes, of course, that there's something like a "tie" between the delegates each side netted from PA and NC.

we'll see.

by j cantarella on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:46:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (2.00 / 1)

That quote looks less ridiculous as the night goes on. It isn't a tiebreaker - given what's happened on the trail the last few weeks - but it was obviously more competitive than PA.

Note how much Obama did with working class whites this time? Elkhart County is not exactly latte-sipping territory. Neither is St. Joseph.

And Evansville was much closer than I thought.

The bright spot for Hillary is her strength near Louisville and Cincinnati. That will help in KY. But the central and northern IN numbers are very different from PA and OH.

by elrod on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:00:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (2.00 / 1)

I think it's probably time for the hat to get thrown in.

John McCain isn't evil. He's just wrong about a lot of things. Vote Obama!

by proseandpromise on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:37:45 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (2.00 / 1)

26% of precincts remaining, the lead is under 38k.

If he can keep up the pace of the last half-hour, he Missouri's this one.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:38:22 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (2.00 / 1)

I really, really wish he would win and end it. I think Sen. Clinton wins narrowly, but the margin in NC will be about 13-15, not the 20 some were expecting.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:39:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (2.00 / 1)

Obama is still going to net 300,000 votes in North Carolina.

We'll take that.

by johnnyappleseed on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:42:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (2.00 / 2)

Good point. Turnout is about 1.5 million ... that's huge.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:45:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Chuck Todd just said that Obama would only need to win 54% of the remaining areas to win with Gary and other Chicago areas still out, as well as the area around Purdue.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:41:13 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (2.00 / 1)

He also said that the Obama folks think they will fall short in IN by around 15,000 votes -- which will make it a narrow Clinton win. But no one is sure yet.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:42:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (2.00 / 1)

I could be wrong, but If she only wins by 15,000 he wins the spin tonight.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:15:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Mark my words (none / 0)

North Carolina is going to be single digits.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:42:05 PM EST

Re: Mark my words (none / 0)

duly marked.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mark my words (none / 0)

Perhaps. But Obama's win in NC will be larger than Clinton's in IN (assuming she wins). Because of that and because NC is much larger, he will win more delegates and pick up lots in the popular vote numbers.

And the fact that Clinton hasn't come out to talk to her supporters yet tells you something, no?

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:44:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How do you figure? (2.00 / 1)

To put it lightly, that sounds highly unrealistic to me. Could you please paint a specific scenario where this can happen with 57% reporting? Every network has called it already.

[ Donate to Barack Obama ]

by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:47:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How do you figure? (none / 0)

Obama's been hovering at a 150-160K lead for a while. It's going to stay there. Turnout is going to end up around 1.6 million. 10% of 1.6 million is 160K. I believe his lead is goign to be at that level or below.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:02:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In a homogenous population... (none / 0)

The percentage lead remains exactly the same throughout, which means the numerical lead grows. Obviously no real world situation is like that, but what you are positing that the coming counties will be Hillary-friendly. Which ones in particular are you saying will favor her?

Otherwise, your speculations have nothing behind them but hope, and I'm pretty sure that's a dirty word for you guys.

[ Donate to Barack Obama ]

by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:09:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In a homogenous population... (none / 0)

It's now 91% and the percentages remain at 56-42.

I accept your apology.

[ Donate to Barack Obama ]

by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:00:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How so? (2.00 / 1)

Most western NC and Piedmont counties are in. The only Clinton strongholds left to report more than 50% are: Cherokee, Clay, Jackson, Henderson in western NC and none really in the Piedmont. Only Jackson (Waynesville, Sylva) has a decent population and it's not as strong for Clinton as the other mountain counties (WCU is there).

As for Obama counties remaining, there are several eastern counties with no numbers in. Many are heavily black.

And Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) is only a third in and Obama has 68%.

This will end up about 16 points at least.

by elrod on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:08:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mark my words (none / 0)

LOL.

She was against seating MI and FL before she was for it.

by lojasmo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:30:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

I just looked at the CNN map. Have they started to count votes in Lake County (Gary) yet?

by reggie23 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:42:25 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Does anyone know whether votes have come in from Lake County (Gary, Hammond, Northwest Indiana) yet? CNN's map says no.

by thehastyexit on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:43:07 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

NO they haven't come in and they are STRONG Obama areas. He's going to win in a squeaker.

by sweet potato pie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:45:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

No votes from Lake County yet per CNN.

by mady on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:45:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Wow. Bad night for HRC.

Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.

by fogiv on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:43:19 PM EST

Re: Ding dong? ;-) (none / 0)

Not without an actual win in Indiana. Anything that can be spun as a split is a reason to soldier on.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:44:16 PM EST

Re: Ding dong? ;-) (none / 0)

Even if he wins, she will go one because she has two slam dunks coming up. Unless he wins Kentucky or West Virginia... and even then... I don't see her leaving the race not when its this close.... NOW if he does win, I see the SDs start to get off the fence and THAT may driver her from the race. It will be figured out before the convention but she won't drop out.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:13:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He's going to WIN!!! (none / 0)

He's going to win Indiana by 20K votes. Oh my friend's source was right!!!

by sweet potato pie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:44:16 PM EST

Re: He's going to WIN!!! (2.00 / 1)

I like your enthusiasm. You're dead wrong, but I like it. ;)

John McCain

by Mandoliniment on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:26:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

hehehehe (none / 0)

best comment yet

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:30:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

The GAS TAX was a winner for Obama . . . not because voters agreed with him, but because it turned the debate to issues over scandals.

This nomination needs to get back to the issues We can disagree about the issues.

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:44:51 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

I think it also highlighted Obama's core message about being a different sort of politician.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

I am heading to hillIS44 to see what conspiracy they are discussing ;-}~

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:48:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Oh, they want to talk about WV!

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:50:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

" . . .why the DNC seems so intent on award delegates to heavily-AA influenced areas moreso than others."

Here is one hill44 theory, LOL

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:58:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

LMAO at HillIS44 (none / 0)

"If Barack wins by less than 30% in NC (which is the percent of AA's in that state), it will raise very very serious questions."

INSANE!!

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:01:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LMAO at HillIS44 (none / 0)

LOL, pure insanity

by catalysis on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More gems from Hill44. . . (none / 0)

". . .I despise him. I know I'm not supposed to hate but I feel nothing but pure hatred for him . . ."

They sure sound like McCain voters in the GE . . . so sad.

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:06:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More gems from Hill44. . . (none / 0)

I happen to know a number of McCain supporters (I'm in SC, so I can't avoid republicans) and they tend to be for more respectful and positive toward Obama than Hillis44/No Quarter folks. In fact, the ones that are younger than 40 tend to really like Obama, just not enough to cross over and vote for him.

by DPW on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:18:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More gems from Hill44. . . (2.00 / 1)

That's a reasoned statement.

I already crossed over from my comfy perch on the Right, but I'm not a True Republican. I have met quite a few R's who have gone for Obama (and one for Hillary, but I think I converted him... ;).

"We are not as divided as our politics suggest." Republicans don't have horns - they're just folks.

-chris

"A ship in port is safe, but that is not what ships are for. Sail out to sea and do new things." Admiral Grace Hopper, computer pioneer

by chrisblask on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:07:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More gems from Hill44. . . (none / 0)

That's because they are not real Democrats.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:22:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Racism too . . . (none / 0)

from Hill is 44:

"Lake county in Indiana is worrisome. It's got a population of 494,000 and a black population of 26% according to the US census website
yeah and they kept the polls open for a hour and a half more..he uses there media market and opfrahs too..it pisses me off.."

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:09:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Racism too . . . (none / 0)

Are you F'ing kidding me?!?!!?!?

From HillIS44:

curiosityhasme Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 9:39 pm

WHY ARE THE MAJORITY OF WHITE DEMOCRATS STANDING BY AND LETTING THE AA HIJACK OUR PARTY?!?

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:11:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Stuff like this makes me realize that (none / 0)

MyDD is sane:

dot48 Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 9:42 pm

curiosity .. I've been saying the same thing. The AA have made a political statement .. they are going to vote for him no matter WHAT. The exit polls have been WRONG on every count. The whites need to step up . . .

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:13:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Openly racist: (none / 0)

# wagner1jc Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 10:02 pm

Faith. Have faith. Then have a drink. And Harold Fu*#%#* Ford park my car.

NO 100 year WAR, NO McConnell run Senate, & NO GOP-led Supreme Court!!!

by Veteran75 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:19:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Openly racist: (none / 0)

We should send some white hoods over to those posters. Wow what scummy pieces of shit... I mean I know some of the MyDD Hillary posts bug me and I still think jerome is way out of line, but NONE of them are throwing around comments like that... Wow, great to put things in perspective.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:24:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Down to 35,000.

Still no count from Lake, Porter, or Marion counties.

GOBAMA!

by doschi on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:47:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

I was wrong about Marion, but it was about 2-1 Obama.

Monroe has about 23% reporting and is also 2-1 Obama.

by doschi on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:49:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

With Lake county (second most populous county and possibly for Obama) not reporting yet and only 35% of Hamilton counted (going to Obama 61% to Clinton's 39%) so far, I am wondering if CBS called it too soon? Of course there are also rural counties still to go for Clinton, and I'm not sure what the population is for some of those. Like Wayne, Union, Jackson...

by mimi42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:45:22 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

down to a 35k lead with 24% outstanding. He's been whittling it down at the right pace since about 65%, but who knows if he can keep it up.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:46:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Now 89% of Hamilton in and lead down to under 32K. Still no Lake...

by mimi42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:51:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Back up to 38k, 19% to go.

Still no Lake County, the 800-lb. gorilla in the room.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:03:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Superdelegate predictions? (none / 0)

How many superdelegates will come out in the next week? What do you think? How many for each?

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:47:20 PM EST

Re: Superdelegate predictions? (none / 0)

Probably just enough to put him at 2,025 after Puerto Rico.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:51:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Yah.. He WON, most likely by far more than what was reported. Funny that she pulled off 6% in the last 13%.
Funny thing is, she cannot catch up with Obama at this point.
Can't wait to see what she pulls off in N.C.
better not be 50-50 there.

by walletyyt on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:47:22 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

They're starting to panic over at Hillaryis44 . . . .

What is The October Protocol?

by Koan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:03:33 PM EST

Hey (none / 0)

I just saw my mother's face and she looks upset, so I'm not going to throw salt in their wounds. This has been an amazing ride. Our descendants will be talking about this one day. Let's all be proud to have been a part of it.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:09:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hey (none / 0)

Yeah, I wasn't gloating, just taking it as a serious indication that Obama was doing well. Pessimism from supporters could be a decent metric as to how real his comeback is.

But she seems to be taking LaPorte, so maybe I spoke too soon.

What is The October Protocol?

by Koan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:28:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Russert just said (none / 0)

No lake county results for another hour. They're in league with the networks going for the ad dollars, I tells ya!

[ Donate to Barack Obama ]

by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:04:29 PM EST

Re: Russert just said (none / 0)

According to CNN, if Obama can pull 58% of Lake, then he will win the nom. So lets set the threshold at 60%.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:27:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I love that (none / 0)

this entire primary campaign can all end in, of all places; Gary, Indiana.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:33:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Extra staff have been brought in to help count ballots in Lake County plus pizzas to feed them!

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:04:51 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Anyone have a projection, any sort of projection, on how many votes and what the split was projected to be in Lake, just so this uninformed yokel can have an idea of what to expect?

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:08:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Chuck Todd said that there are 300,000 to 350,000 votes still out and it's a very good area for Obama.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:10:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Gary was 84.03% black in the last census, if that tells you anything. There should be about 300K votes left to count. With a 35K gap, anything can happen. I'm thinking IN will be dead even by the end.

[ Donate to Barack Obama ]

by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:12:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Another Guam?

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:28:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

ARG!!!!!
Why are they still white on cnn?

I have to get up early tomorrow. Those counties better start counting!!!!

have they no consideration?!?!

by gil44 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:07:12 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

ARG!!!!!
Why are they still white on cnn?

I have to get up early tomorrow. Those counties better start counting!!!!

have they no consideration?!?!

by gil44 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:07:12 PM EST

lake County shenanigans (none / 0)

I think it's Lake County shenanigans. Holding off on reporting results in order to prevent networks from callling the race with certainty.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:07:40 PM EST

Re: lake County shenanigans (none / 0)

That would make sense if she wins the majority of that count which wont happen

Unable to rec or rate Still supporting Obama

by astoria gooner on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:10:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ is now projecting a Clinton win in IN of under 2%. That won't be good enough to call it a split after they spent so much time working NC so hard.

Russert is saying that this could be it for Clinton. She wanted to get a quick call for IN and win it big and then win or keep Obama to a close win in NC. But the opposite happened.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:07:48 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Okay, Obama is down around 40k votes.

By my math, if Lake County turned out in proportion to the rest of the state, there are only roughly 70-90k votes to be had in the county.

Probably not enough to change the expected result at this point.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:09:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm a little surprised (none / 0)

he won St. Joseph County, but he's losing LaPorte?

whaaa?

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:11:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm a little surprised (none / 0)

South Bend is good for Obama. La Porte is whiter.

by elrod on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:14:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I just figured (none / 0)

La Porte is more Democratic...Kerry won La Porte, but lost St. Joseph.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:37:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

I'm now showing Clinton winning Indiana by 1.8 percent, or about 23,000 votes. And one thing to remember about Indiana is the provisional ballot issue -- people who were rejected at the polls because they did not meet the state's ID requirements could still cast provisional ballots and prove their identity later. It's possible that we'll still have a hanging chads type of situation.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/e lection-night-thread.html

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:12:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

In Indianapolis the pop. is 876,804. They had a voter turnout of 172,915, and Obama had a net gain of 57,929 by winning the county 67% to 33% (with 96% reporting).

Lake has a pop. of 484,564 - so a bit more than half the pop. of Marion. If we project a voter turnout of about 90,000, Obama would need to win Lake by more than 70 to 30 to overcome the 43,000 votes she is up, wouldn't he? I don't think he's projected to win Lake by that much, is he?

Unless I've messed up the math...

by mimi42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:29:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

That's how I see it at this point, too. He's going to cut the lead, but not by enough.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:31:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Cnn is saying he needs 58% for lake based on projected turnout

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:31:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Unable to rec or rate Still supporting Obama

by astoria gooner on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:08:20 PM EST

finally a comment (none / 0)

that no dems disagree with. The beginning of unity?

by Mojo Risen on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:12:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: finally a comment (none / 0)

:~)

"A ship in port is safe, but that is not what ships are for. Sail out to sea and do new things." Admiral Grace Hopper, computer pioneer

by chrisblask on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Whatever else it means, it prevents Clinton from presiding over any sort of victory celebration in prime time. The margin is slim enough that any celebration will be hollow anyway.

by shermandem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:12:03 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Her hopes aren't math-based at this point, they are entirely symbolic. ANY victory is enough for her purposes.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:13:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Yes, but he makes a good point -- if everyone goes to bed tonight, and the papers come out tomorrow with "Obama wins NC handily; IN close" even if she squeaks out a narrow win in the counting at 4 am, it kills her narrative.

by Rorgg on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:15:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Well, if her win is under 5% -- as it appears it certainly will be -- and his is over 10% -- as it appears it will be, the media won't spin it as a split.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:16:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Indiana state website either old or more accurate? (none / 0)

Where is CNN getting their numbers?

Are they verified? Or projections?

This is from the Indiana state website.. and its being updated every few minutes, so its not that old..

http://www.in.gov/apps/sos/primary/sos_p rimary08

Hillary Clinton 265522
Barack Obama 197914

Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.

by architek on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:20:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama just jumped up.. (none / 0)

Hillary Clinton 321097
Barack Obama 310092

Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.

by architek on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:22:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

What gets me is that I think this is the first time the exit polls underreported Obama's vote. Huffington Post called it +7 for Clinton in IN and so I figured it would be +14, yet it will probably end up 2-4 points.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:14:20 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

True, though early exits in Wisconsin had her up.

by elrod on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:15:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

What gets me is that I think this is the first time the exit polls underreported Obama's vote. Huffington Post reported exit polls showing it +7 for Clinton in IN and so I figured it would be +14, yet it will probably end up 2-4 points.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:15:22 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Doesn't Gary have a 26% AA population? I'm hearing he only needs 55% of the remaining votes for a win in the state. That's awfully close. I thought this was surely going to be a +5 win for Clinton.

This administration is not sinking. This administration is soaring! If anything, they are rearranging the deck chairs on the Hindenburg!

by venavena on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:18:35 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

According to Wikipedia, it's 25.3%, yes.

But I'm still not sure there's enough votes there to completely turn it around. Maybe cut half or 2/3rds of the gap, but not all of it.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:19:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

I don't think it'll be enough to turn it around, but I would think he'll come within 2 points.

This administration is not sinking. This administration is soaring! If anything, they are rearranging the deck chairs on the Hindenburg!

by venavena on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:22:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

I will be shocked if Obama wins IN... I don't see him pulling off the upset...

...although I'd question whether he even needs to at this point. This is a win no matter how you slice it... certainly good to see him win the zany "expectations" game for once.

Fight the Smears!

by Lettuce on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:24:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data indiana/gary

If I'm reading this correctly, Gary has an AA population of 84%.

by mady on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:25:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

I don't know which Wiki you're looking at, but Gary, IN has an 84.03% African American population, the highest percentage of African Americans of any city in the US with 100,000 people or more.

Lake County is 25.33% white.

by doschi on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:27:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_County ,_Indiana

Clearly states the 2000 Census results at 67% white. 2005 Census estimates at 58% white.

Where are you getting 25% from?

Gary is largely AA, but the county as a whole is not.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:34:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

I think they meant Lake County has 25.33% AA population, with Gary having a 84% AA pop.

This administration is not sinking. This administration is soaring! If anything, they are rearranging the deck chairs on the Hindenburg!

by venavena on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:37:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Really? I wonder why I read a projection of Obama only plus 2% in Lake?

That's here
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/i ndiana-scorecard.html
Don't know much about except lots of places seem to link to it.

by mimi42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:37:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

That was based on Clinton+5, which seems a bit optimistic.

That projection chart misestimated Obama in "his counties" by the following margins (negative number means the projection underestimated Obama):

Marion -15
Hamilton -1
Tippecanoe +4
Allen -6
Monroe -14

Is Lake anything like Marion or Monroe? Then Obama has a chance here. Otherwise, no.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:44:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

According to my Calculation (none / 0)

CBS news may have a lot of explaining to do tomorrow.

Assuming that voter turnout in Lake County is about the same as the rest of the state, the magic number for Obama is 65%. If he wins Lake County by 65-35 he'll squeak out an upset victory in Indiana.

The Demographics of Lake County is almost identical to Marion County. Obama carried Marion county by a 67-33 margin. I say, it's an even bet that Obama will win Indiana.

But I'm wondering what's the hold up in Lake County? Why hasn't any precincts reporter in Lake County?

Dizzy Zzyzzy

by Zzyzzy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:55:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Remaining numbers in IN (2.00 / 1)

Union County near Ohio is the only Clinton-strong county left. But it's very small. Hendricks - west suburb of Indy - is only half in and going for Hillary. But not many Democratic votes there.

Monroe County - Bloomington - has only 43% in now.

Some more to come in from Indianapolis.

In NW Indiana, Laporte has 71% in is going well for Hillary. Porter is 51% but close to even.

And then there's Lake County, with nothing in yet. There are 484,000 people in Lake County. And Gary has 102,000 people - 84% of whom are black.

This will go to the end.

by elrod on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:22:45 PM EST

Re: Remaining numbers in IN (none / 0)

Yes to the end, but with 43% counted in Monroe, Obama only has a net gain of 2,514 votes. Assuming the county continues pretty close to the same percentages, he will pick up just another 3,000 - 4,000 votes there. So Lake had better come through by a high enough percentage to overcome the rest of her vote lead plus whatever else she gets out of Laporte...

There's probably about 90,000 votes total in Lake (?) so he'll need to win it by a wide margin. Of course, he may do just that.

by mimi42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:46:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

My God. Will someone please tell me how Obama can win the GE with only the support of young voters and African Americans? (He has not demonstrated that he can make inroads among other groups, he has a huge advantage in the primaries because of his strength among many racially conscious voters in states like VA, NC, GA just to name a few. And please don't even think about Obama winning these states in November. Clinton will not but neither wil he.

by Ignored and Disgusted on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:23:48 PM EST

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (2.00 / 1)

Candidates' support base is measured relative to who they are running against.

Obama's support vs. McCain would look different than Obama's support vs. Clinton, and the same would go for her.

Would she lose the African American vote by a large margin against McCain? Of course not.

by KyleJRM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:27:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Even with 48% of Indiana (none / 0)

and a loss, IF that happens, that belies the argument that Obama doesn't appeal to white blue collar voters, since Indiana is lilke 92% white.

Doncha think.

I am pleased as punch that the media is taking a drubbing.

The media with it's obsession about Wright and Obama can't win the white votes 24/7 ......and he's still standing, and he is winning.

In fact Obama has been winning for a while now. Clinton has just refused to accept it.

overthrow the government~participate

by missliberties on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:36:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Winning November (2.00 / 1)

Sure.

All the standard party-line Democrats will vote Dem in the fall - that includes most of those who voted for Senator Clinton, and most of the folks on MyDD - and many many Independents and new voters will as well. There will be a strong and concerted Democrat voter turn-out, and a weak and thinned-out Republican voter turn-out come November.

Check this out on Politico, for example:

GOP leaders warn of election disaster

I'm not here to tear into you folks, this is a hard night for your team and I appreciate what that means. You all worked very hard for your candidate and deserve some time to get past it. I'm sure that as a demographic that is more fully Progressive and Democrat than I am, most of you will find yourselves working alongside those of us in the Obama camp shortly.

You will be welcomed with open arms. No time for hard feelings, we have a White House to win.

-best

-chris

"A ship in port is safe, but that is not what ships are for. Sail out to sea and do new things." Admiral Grace Hopper, computer pioneer

by chrisblask on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:37:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Winning November (none / 0)

your dripping condesencion is not appreciated and will not be forgotten come November.

by Ignored and Disgusted on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:53:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Winning November (none / 0)

I did not read him that way at all...

But here is a question for you that may come up sooner or later.

Assuming Obama wins this - as seems likely now if not guaranteed - what would you accept as a message?

If you read someone who says that it was a tough race and that Clinton's supporters are good Democrats as condescension, what would work?

Whoever wins, we are going to be facing this problem sooner or later so why not start the discussion now?

by Nindid on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Indiana Results Thread Part Deux (none / 0)

Couldn't the same be said for Clinton?

But this post reminds me of a diary I saw at TPM:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9xI44haW kI

by gil44 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:45:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What happened? (2.00 / 2)

This is what happened... for example.

My wife... as well as a female co-worker of mine... who did not dislike Obama but supported Clinton... were completely appalled at the Hillary the last couple of weeks. The gas tax pander... the ... well. Let's not belabor the point. Supporters of Hillary bled away. Because she left them.

by Prairie Logic on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:24:31 PM EST

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

And Clinton supporters who kept defending her gas tax position really misunderstood how that was seen by people who followed policy and politics.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:29:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (none / 0)

Shocker.

People won't vote based on half a tank of gas.

by Bush Bites on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happened? (2.00 / 1)

Half a tank of gas and a flag pin.

The Clinton Campaign: It fits in a breadbox.