What if African-American Turnout Dropped in the General?

by RickM, Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:34:36 PM EST

There has been much discussion in the blogosphere regarding electability.  Kos has some analysis up regarding HRC's appeal (or lack thereof)to independents, in essence an electability argument.

But in today's world.  The political strategy seems to focus on energizing the base.  And of course the base of the Democratic Party starts with its most loyal constituents, African-Americans.

If the Super Delegates break for HRC, and she becomes the nominee, it is quite possible that some percentage of African-Americans, who would have voted, might instead stay home.  Not vote for McCain, but just choose not to vote at all.

What impact would a decline in African-American turnout have? I did a little math.  My question was, what if 1 in 5 African American voters stayed home, fed up by a process that gave them Hillary as the standard bearer rather than Barack?

I took the totals from the 2004 election, and split them out based on the exit poll data (still available on CNN.com!)

Nationally, Kerry would have had over 2.3 million fewer votes.   This impact is greater or less state by state.  I looked at NJ and PA, and the results are striking.  20% fewer African American voters would translate into a loss of 82,000 votes in NJ and 126,000 votes in PA.  In NJ, Kerry still wins by about 158,000 votes, but in PA the election is essentially tied, with only 18,000 votes separating the two - Kerry still ahead.  

This assumes that McCain does no better than Bush.  

If he actually does better than Bush (perhaps because the right hates HRC more than McCain and so comes out to vote, and he does better with Independents than Bush 2004 did), and HRC does as well as Kerry with non-African American voters, but loses 1 in 5 African American voters to indifference, then both states could tip.  Other states, such as Michigan look the same, though I haven't the time to do the math.

But that isn't the end of it.  Think about how this plays out further downstream in close Congressional districts or State Assembly/Senate districts where the percentage of total Democratic votes cast by African Americans can be much higher than on state wide basis.  

If I am a Super Delegate, this has to weigh on my mind.




Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, turnout, african american, electability (all tags)

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Re: What if (2.00 / 2)

Hillary loses the AA vote, and the college-age vote

Obama loses the Hispanic vote, the blue-collar vote, and the 65+ vote

Either will lose, unless that changes between now and November.


by WolfmanJack on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:37:45 PM EST

Based On... ? (none / 0)

I challenge you to find even one shred of evidence that Obama would do worse than Kerry did among any of the three demographic groups you mentioned.

I also don't think African-American turnout would drop 20% from 2004, but at least that scenario has some plausible basis in reality.


by Hatch on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:41:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Based On... ? (none / 0)

Kerry LOST remember?


by WolfmanJack on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:44:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary's healthplan WILL GIVE THE POOR SOMETHING (2.00 / 2)

they have never had.. universal healthcare for little or no money (With Hillary's premium cap the costs will be FAR lower than the cheapest Federal health plan, (around $200/month) - WILL COVER MUCH MORE, and she will probably get going on her plan LONG before Obama's 2012)

Also, if you are not in a employer group, it WILL cover pre-existing conditions.. (Obama just says they have to give you a 'fair price', which IS STILL BASED ON RISK, and there is NO premium cap, so for many people it will be FAR higher than they can afford)

That is a first..

That is reason to vote for Hillary Clinton over Obama, for anyone.


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.
by architek on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:59:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary only cares about Hillary (2.00 / 1)

Hillary has already lost, so your only option is McCain and Obama. So who's it gonna be?


"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Hillary's husband
by venician on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:03:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary only cares about Hillary (none / 0)


Nope.
by killjoy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:55:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary only cares about Hillary (none / 0)

McCain


by SHIBAM8P on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:38:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

they wouldn't stay home (2.00 / 2)

they would vote for McCain.
the biggest problem is the white working class catholic vote in PA, male and female.  In PA, that's the state and that's the nation.  You can not win without PA.

Also, AA women will turn out to vote for Hillary just like other women will, in huge numbers IMO.


For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!
by TeresaInPa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:46:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: they wouldn't stay home (none / 0)

and blue-collar males who would vote for "tough-guy" McCain over "skinny-guy" Obama.


by WolfmanJack on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:48:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Talk to rikyrah (none / 0)

or some other black women.

The feel I get is that they don't like the BorgQueen at ALL.

(hat tip to Field Negro for the term).


His head is bowed. He thinks of men and kings. Yea, when the sick world cries, how can he sleep?
by RisingTide on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:50:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: they wouldn't stay home (none / 0)

No, they wouldn't. First, Hillary hasn't asked for black votes and that's been noted in the community and second, women aren't a monolithic group and don't vote based on estrogen.


by Mylie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:35:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Based On... ? (none / 0)

Just look at the crosstabs of any poll from Pew or something that asks people who they would vote for in the general election.  Obama has more base problems with democratic voters than Hillary. In particular his problems are with the white working class and elderly.  I haven't seen this kind of analysis regarding latinos, so I can't speak to that.


John McCain: Extending SCHIP would be an "unfunded liability."
by Fuzzy Dunlop on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:34:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Based On... ? (none / 0)

since when have white working class voters and the elderly been the democratic base?

not for decades, dude, like since the 80s.

our BASE is AAs, youth, and the educated.  obama kicks ass in those demos.

(not saying hillary won't kick ass too, just giving a little reality check)


Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:52:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if (none / 0)

Really, That is why the both perform fairly well against McCain in polls...even with a split party.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:53:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

much bigger problem (2.00 / 2)

what if the Reagan democrats break for McCain along with the hundreds of thousands of republican women who have been waiting for and re-registering to vote for Hillary?

That is a much more likely and threatening possibility.


For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!
by TeresaInPa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:40:00 PM EST

No Way, No How (none / 0)

Republican women for Hillary is a demographic Mark Penn pulled out of his ass last October. There's no evidence whatsoever that Republican women will cross over to support Clinton in significant numbers.


by Hatch on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:49:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No Way, No How (none / 0)

Republican women tend to really dislike Hillary...much more even than the republican men.

That being said, this is all anecdotal and I have no numbers to back up any of that.  Woohoo myDD!


John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country
by minnesotaryan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That was true quite a few years ago but (none / 0)

its less true now.. except among the hard core.. (who hate everyone who isn't like them, basically..)


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.
by architek on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:07:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Latest SUSA GE Polls (none / 0)

They don't break down the Republican group into male and female, but still the results pretty thoroughly debunk the fiction of Republican women supporting Hillary. Obama gets at least the same percentage of Republican defections as Clinton, and sometimes twice as many.


by Hatch on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:09:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No Way, No How (none / 0)


Yeah, the 10% of registered Republicans that vote for the Democratic Presidential candidate and are about 70% women are Totally Made Up.

Try actually looking at data sometime before your denialist resentment kneejerks.


by killjoy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: much bigger problem (none / 0)

You need 44% of the total white vote, and 80% of the AA vote with average turnout to be a successful Dem Candidate....


Obama supporter who is damn glad Hillary Clinton is a Democrat!!
by hootie4170 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sophie's Choice. (2.00 / 2)

This has got to be the biggest nightmare for the SD's.  They have to have the bests interest, long-term, of the national party in mind, not just this election cycle.

It certainly is my nightmare.  The SD's will end up ignoring their original responsibility, which is to elevate the most electable candidate regardless of popular support, and vote to hold the party together, thereby handing the election to the Republicans.


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:41:54 PM EST

Re: Sophie's Choice. (none / 0)


Mine is that they're just looking at their chickenhearted selfinterests and want the candidate that is substantially more conservative and passive and helps conservative Democrats downticket more, i.e. Obama.  For them its mostly the sake of safety during the election, and for many Southern ones there's scapegoating of the Clintons for the Southern Democrat disaster during the Nineties.

That's the picture the NYT fellow gave Charlie Rose of most superdelegate "thinking" last night.

The fainthearted Democratic Party of 2001-2005 refuses to change.  And the Southern and Midwestern conservatives hate the present Northern/West Coast liberal control of the Party- Obama is their vehicle back to control.


by killjoy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:11:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (2.00 / 2)

What if Reagan Dems, and moderate GOP women break for HRC?
Each group outnumbers African Americans.
Clinton could see a net positive swing.
by johnnygunn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:45:35 PM EST

truedat (2.00 / 1)

but not the breeze i've been hearing. and I talk to enough democrats who wouldn't vote for Clinton at this point...

Hell, I'd work my ass off for her, but just so that I could show her my ass at her inauguration.


His head is bowed. He thinks of men and kings. Yea, when the sick world cries, how can he sleep?
by RisingTide on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:52:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: truedat (none / 0)

And that's one sassy ass, eh?


by johnnygunn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:47:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (none / 0)

Yes the old what if scenario. I know IFs are all you people have left, but it is gettin old.


"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Hillary's husband
by venician on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:06:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What if 1/5th of Clinton voters stayed home? (none / 0)

Threatening to not vote for the winner in my opinion has a disastorous effect. If you really want Sen. Obama to become President you would not be threatening such scenarios.


by ann0nymous on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:55:44 PM EST

Re: What if 1/5th of Clinton voters stayed home? (none / 0)

Clinton supporters do the same thing....


Obama supporter who is damn glad Hillary Clinton is a Democrat!!
by hootie4170 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:03:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Voting for someone is an act.. Not voting for some (none / 0)

Not voting for anyone is just doing what you do every other day of the year on Election Day too...

Its not something people want to do though..

It takes a lot of something to get someone who votes 100% of the time that angry.

I've voted in every Presidential election since I was able to vote.


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.
by architek on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:11:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (2.00 / 2)

So there's that threat again.

Just like the threat of riots in Denver, threats of voting for McCain or staying home if certain groups of people don't get their way.

It could be Internet Kidz, African Americans, Working-class Whites, Women, College Age, Elderly, Religious, on and on and on...

If people bite of their own noses to spite the Democratic nominee, we WILL end up electing Grandpa Nutzo and then what will we have?

I guess if people want more pain, suffering, death, war, corporatism, Blackwater/KBR/Haliburton, Katrina, Blown-up Space Shuttles, China-downed spy planes, Wiretapping, Shoeless Air Flights... then by all means vote for Grandpa because you babies didn't get your way.

If they do that then we all get what we deserve.

In the end I believe that a very good sized chunk of African Americans are Republicans at heart anyway and probably vote their hearts -- which is OK.

But stop the crybaby threats!


by wblynch on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:55:46 PM EST

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (none / 0)

Shit...How many women (clinton supporters) have said exactly the same thing.  In case you haven't noticed all the polls show MORE Clinton supporters would change to McCain if Obama won than Obama supporters changing to McCain if Clinton won..


Obama supporter who is damn glad Hillary Clinton is a Democrat!!
by hootie4170 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:05:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (none / 0)

suggest you reread...


by wblynch on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:31:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Politicians have to EARN votes.. (none / 0)

You don't pay people if they don't work for you, right?


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.
by architek on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:12:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (none / 0)

Well, precisely, more than twice as many Clinton supporters won't vote for Obama if he is the nominess as Obama supporters won't vote for Clinton. Most clinton supporter won't vote for McCain. A lot of us will simply skip the race entirely.

for my money, there won't be much difference between a McCain presidency and an Obama presidency. I don't trust Obama on choice issues and I don't think he's smart enough or disciplined enough to get us out of Iraq. apparently, neither do his advisors as well. He and Michelle look like the Democratic version of the Reagans.

I'm slapping a bumper sticker on my car that says Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Clinton.


by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (none / 0)

"There won't be much difference between a McCain Presidency and an Obama Presidency..."  Come on.  Get real.  Why do you even write things like that.  It must makes you, and the other HRC supporters sound ridiculous.  Have a preference, but don't let the preference be so strong as to blind you to reality.  


by RickM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:44:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (none / 0)

It's sounding like the second coming of McNamara to me without the brains or the tenacity of LBJ. since he's repeated GOP rhetoric on social security and universal health care, I don't think he's much of a Democrat. And I have every confidence he'll appoint anti-choice judges and see it as a sign of his integrity.


by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:53:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A lot of people will be in healthcare hell under (none / 0)

either McCain or Obama.

People like me.


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.
by architek on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:14:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

*boggle* (none / 0)

"there won't be much difference between a McCain presidency and an Obama presidency"

can i have some of what you're smoking please?


Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:54:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: *boggle* (none / 0)

I don't smoke. Perhaps you should put yours down and listen to what he's actually saying.


by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:54:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

i did (none / 0)

and it's total bullshit.

it's as much bullshit as the same line that got spewed in 00, that there was little difference between the dem and the pub.  PLEASE.  hasn't that canard been laid to rest yet?


Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Wed May 07, 2008 at 09:50:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And if women don't show up... (none / 0)

Women are the Dems most loyal voters - I don't know why Obama supporters have so much trouble understanding this and they make up over half the voters. if Obama is the nominee because Florida and Michigan aren't counted, then Clinton supporters aren't going to turn out and vote. Obama will already have lost Florida and Michigan. Can he survive a big chunk of our biggest demographic thinking he stole the election from a better qualified candidate? You do realize that women are 53% of the Democratic electorate and they are voting for clinton in big numbers, don't you?


by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:51 PM EST

Re: And if women don't show up... (none / 0)

You, as a Dem candidate, can win by pulling 44% of the white vote.

You need 80% of the AA vote in average turnout.


Obama supporter who is damn glad Hillary Clinton is a Democrat!!
by hootie4170 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:06:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And if women don't show up... (none / 0)

Women may be have the dem voters but they are not all breaking for hillary. What about A.A. women?
Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated but their delegates won't enable hillary to catch up to Obama.
"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Hillary's husband
by venician on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:08:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And if women don't show up... (none / 0)

ahhh, she's only 16 delegates behind if they're counted. So, yes, she can catch up.


by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:30:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And if women don't show up... (none / 0)

What are you talking about 16 delegates behind?


"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Hillary's husband
by venician on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:31:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And if women don't show up... (none / 0)

How can you say women are more loyal than African-Americans?  Kerry received 51% of the female vote, but 88% of the African American vote.


by RickM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:47:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (none / 0)

Are you doing the same analysis re: the Clinton Demos that will never under any circumstances vote for BHO?  And there is another difference. Unlike AAs who will just stay home - which is a half vote for each candidate, many of the Clinton Demos will actually vote for McCain.  I think in the end it is a wash.  But I believe that if BHO is the nominee it is George McGovern 1972 all over again, except that McGovern was a Veteran and BHO will not get those votes.  He can't win my friend.  Not possible at all.  


by Baypalsf on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:15:36 PM EST

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (none / 0)

Amazing. So where you pulled that out of (your ass) is better than all the polling done?

Amazing! Can I borrow your ass to make some stock predictions?


If you are not voting Obama, please let me know so I can replace your sorry ass with another new voter.
by Darknesse on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:25:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Could people stop using 'BHO' (none / 0)

Personally, I find the use of 'BHO' offensive..

I think Obama's middle name is irrelevant to this debate and it makes a lot of people angry.. lets just lose it...

I know I have used 'ODrama' but I was trying to make a (I think relevant) point that was not based on ethnic or racial origin.

But 'BHO' makes me see red..


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.
by architek on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:18:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (none / 0)

The best conclusion to be drawn then, is that neither of them can win.  In the strongest year for a Democrat in a long time.  OK fine.  Neither of them can win. In which case, let us just throw out the whole electablity argument all together.


by RickM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:50:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What if Women ... (none / 0)

didn't turn out in record numbers for Obama? We're 52% of the electorate.....


by cmugirl90 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:50:02 PM EST

Re: What if Women ... (none / 0)

That is a fair point. But only if more Democratic women stay home than GOP.  Do you think that is likely?  The premise behind the notion that African Americans will sit it out is that they will feel the nomination was stolen from them.  Or to put it a little less perjoratively... that despite winning the most delegates in the primaries and caucuses, the African American candidate didn't get the nomination.

Why should women feel that Obama stole the election from them if he is the nominee, if he ends up winning the most delegates in the primaries and caucuses?


by RickM on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:54:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if Women ... (none / 0)

Well, first of all if Michigan and Florida do not get seated fairly, (and not after the fact), and Obama is chosen as the nominee, he will be seen as illegitimate by more than just women.

Also, what's not being reported is that Hillary is pulling Republican women who actually support her. I think Hillary could win if AA's stay home - Obama can't win if women (and Hispanics, and Jews, and Catholics, and Asians, and seniors) leave him in record numbers

Frankly, if he limps into the nomination (especially without Michigan and Florida) there are many, many of us who not only see McCain winning the WH, but down-ticket races not going for the Dems.  On the other hand, if a miracle would occur and he actually squeaks out a win against McCain, many of us also feel like he would be such a disaster that the Dem brand would be ruined for many elections to come.


by cmugirl90 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:03:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if Women ... (none / 0)

I can't see Catholics voting for McCain after Hagee.  


by searchforsolidarity on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if Women ... (2.00 / 1)

No - but we may stay home.


by cmugirl90 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:15:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if African-American (none / 0)

These sort of speculations are total bs. Most of them are spinning by Obama supporters to convince everyone that if he doesn't get the nod then the Black vote is going to not vote or vote for McCain. It's spinning of course but it's frightening no one.


by ottovbvs on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:57:31 PM EST

What if (2.00 / 1)

Humans didn't turn out for the Democrats? You think we can give dogs the right to vote? IF HUmans don't turn out, McCain is almost guaranteed to win!!!


by highgrade on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:01:09 PM EST

Re: What if African-American Turnout Dropped in th (none / 0)

see, considering that the NAACP has Clinton supporters at its top level, I doubt the blacks are really gonna sit out this election. we were the party that even fielded such a candidate. Hillary would not have beaten him, Jerry Wright would have done so


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:00:05 PM EST


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