Zogby or SUSA?

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:05:27 AM EST

We've been here before, or have we?

Once again, like CA, Zogby and SUSA are on opposite poles of the universe, in regards to their closing poll numbers.

Indiana:
Zogby's one-day tracking, which comprises about half of the two-day tracking poll sample, saw Obama winning 47% to Clinton's 41% and 45-43 overall. That's compared with SUSA, which shows a 54-42 blowout for Clinton in the state.

North Carolina:
Zogby's showing a 51-37 lead by Obama, with the undecideds breaking strongly toward Obama on the last day. For SUSA, they show a much closer 50-45 race in the state.

It's likely that this is a result of some sort of methodological issue, and one or the other is going to be very wrong, and the other right, for both states.




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Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

famous last words but quoting zogby is like quoting exit polls both are always wrong.


by bayareasg on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:07:06 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Zogby has been excellent post-Feb 5 and has the more recent data here.


by Bobby Obama on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:08:03 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (2.00 / 1)

The question I have is: why is Zogby taken seriously at all after the California polling fiasco?

SurveyUSA all the way, baby!


by Scan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:10:06 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Survey USA blew some races on Super Tuesday as well (such as Missouri and Alabama).  They were way off in South Carolina as well.  Since then they have improved, but so has Zogby.  Obviously, one of them will be wrong today...


by Skaje on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:41:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Even if you give her SUSA final NC/IN numbers, (none / 0)

plus all the undecideds and switch 5% from Obama to HRC (she'd then win both NC and IN), the pledgded delegates needed after tomorrow would be:


PDs needed after 5/6:
Obama: 36
Clinton: 151

i.e. she'd still need 80% of the remaining pledged delegates.

If we simply use pollster.com averages for NC and IN, needed PDs after tomorrow to clinch a PD victory (magic number for this is 1618):


PDs needed after 5/6:
Obama: 15
Clinton: 172

That's over 90% needed by Clinton.

It's over. Tomorrow night would be a good time to concede, Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Super delegates should look at this reality and wrap this up by wednesday so that Obama can turn his attention to McCain.

ps: I'll post the spreadsheet used for these shortly.


Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers
by NeuvoLiberal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:10:19 AM EST

You don't understand.... (none / 0)

Obama is simply unelectable, and Hillary's unfavorable ratings are pure anomaly....

The important thing is that Democrats get this nomination right, and even if that means we drag this out to the late-August Convention,... well, who cares, since Obama is strictly un-elect-able!


Clinton Democrats care about the same things I do, most importantly beating John McCain.
by TrueBlueCT on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:38:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You don't understand.... (none / 0)

The thing is, I can't even tell whether you're being serious or satirical.


by Frood on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:45:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's snark. (none / 0)

Love your screen name BTW.  You must be cool, eh?


That One is the Right One for 2008.
by GFORD on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:08:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's snark. (none / 0)

That hoopy frood really knows where his towel is.


by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:57:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, yes, (2.00 / 2)

he's totally unelectable, but, but, but, could you be tempted to a "dream" ticket? Wouldn't that be totally cool!!


Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers
by NeuvoLiberal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:49:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Really?, (none / 0)

How many of those Obama votes were actually registered Democrats?  The Obama people never answer that question.


by handsomegent on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:46:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (2.00 / 1)

Why not just wait and find out?


by NY Writer on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:10:38 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

how many hours until the polls close?

hehe


by doberman pinche on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:11:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

The polls have been zigging and zagging and crissing and crossing for weeks. Many a blogger has been made fool of by claiming they reveal something definitive only to have them flip within days.

I can wait less that 24 hours for the real ones to close.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:58:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Anyone know why all the Indiana polls have AA turnout pegged so low?  I gotta figure they will make up about 15-20% of the turnout tomorrow seeing as how they are about 9% of the state population.

Thoughts?


by Bobby Obama on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:12:33 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

It's probably based on participation in prior IN primaries, but I wouldn't think those are very good turnout models for this season--when it is highly contested and features potentially the first female/AA president. For what it's worth, many of the IN polls also have female turnout pegged a bit too low.


by DPW on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:18:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Voter ID law that was upheld by the Supreme Court.  It's estimated that about 28% of AA voters do not have the required ID to be eligible to vote.  (I'm guessing you won't hear Clinton complaining about there disenfranchisement though).


by shalca on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:32:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

LOL.  Now you do not want there to be any ID required for voting?


by reggie44pride on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:24:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

I'm against someone having to purchase an ID for voting.  Obviously I don't live in Indiana, but rather NYC.  Here, you don't need an I.D..  The Board of Elections has your signature on file and when you sign in, your signature is verified right there.


by shalca on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:45:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (2.00 / 1)

You need an ID to buy an alcoholic beverage, drive a car, get a credit card, join a gym, etc.

But not to vote?

Hmm.


by reggie44pride on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:46:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hmm? (2.00 / 2)

Believe it or not, not every single person in this country has an I.D., but regardless, every single person has a Constitutionally protected right to vote. Many state IDs cost a fee that the extremely poor could better spend on food instead. If that fact alone is the case and someone doesn't have the $20, you're charging a poll tax, plain and simple.  An American citizen guaranteed equal protection who desires to vote has been disenfranchised, in the literal sense of the word, not like Mi&FL-ers supposedly have been.  

The supreme court gravely erred on this matter.  Voting is a central human right in a democracy, and anything that limits it should be scrutinized extremely closely.  Don't even get me started about the e-voting fiasco.


by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:06:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm? (none / 0)

clarification: 'every single citizen has a right to vote' is what I meant.  Verification is a problem, but we've overcome it so far.


by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:09:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm? (none / 0)

nope. citizens with felony convictions: up to the state.
citizens in prison. same.
by hctb on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:36:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

conceded... (none / 0)

You're right, I didn't mention them, but felony is explicitly codified as forfeiture of many civil rights, which is why they can keep you in a box, which is illegal to do to a normal citizen.  At the time of the founding fathers we executed all felons.

For a homeless man $20 is a fortune of food.  One can easily construct a plausible situation where a man must choose between enfranchisement and bread.  Is that your America?  It's not mine.


by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:49:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm? (none / 0)

So the $20 that would be saved on that gas tax holiday is not important then?

I am against the gas tax holiday, but I just want to make sure you are consistent.

If $20 is too much of a cost to be burdened with to get an ID, then surely $20 is a lot of money to be saved by the gas tax holiday?


by reggie44pride on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:20:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm? (2.00 / 1)

The problem with the gas tax holiday is that it will save $20 AT BEST, and could actually increase the price of gas at worse.  Not one economist supports the idea and in fact, over 200 from both sides of the aisle think it's bad policy.

http://gastax08.blogspot.com/


by shalca on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:40:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Except (none / 0)

The founding fathers didn't guarantee us the right to cheap gas.  

$20 isn't an unreasonable fee for some government services.  But you can't impose a direct fee to vote.  That was decided after the civil was with "poll taxes" and the other Jim Crow laws, all of which were conclusively outlawed.  $20 represents a certain amount of labor.  You can't make someone work to vote and you can't charge them for it.  No matter which bureaucratic department is actually getting the money, the result is the same: I can't vote unless I pay.




...Although this leaves aside discussion of 'elitists' who can convincingly demonstrate how no such $20 will be saved by anyone due to the several factors caused by the holiday that will increase prices commensurately.  These could even increase prices beyond the amount of the current federal tax.  Wouldn't that be rich?  

'Not doing anything' isn't wrong when the cure is worse than the disease.


by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:42:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except (none / 0)

I am fine with an ID being required to vote.  Many things that are less important require an ID.  If $20 is not a big savings at the pump, then it cannot be argued that it's too much to get an ID to vote.

Everyone should have an ID card.  It's not a big deal.


by reggie44pride on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:04:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If everyone needs to have an ID (none / 0)

Then before you require one to vote, make a federal law saying that everyone has to have a ID and it will be provided/replaced in perpetuity at no cost to everyone and extremely easy to obtain instantaneously if the proper procedures are followed.

The right to vote is a cornerstone of the nation.  Making it dependent on the patchwork of inconsistent state ID laws is risky and foolhardy.  

Right now we have a situation where people in IL and all states without a law like this have higher quality enfranchisement than IN. That violates equal protection, denies the vote to people without the fee, and is supposed to be what true patriots get very riled up about.  

We're talking about the central issue of the revolutionary war: taxation without representation (maybe not income, but the poor pay at least sales tax).  The lack of outrage over this in liberal circles shocks and confounds me.  The republicans would be going absolutely mental about this in our shoes, but since 100% of the votes we're talking about are democratic, they're quiet.  I'm sure it pains some of them privately.


by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:23:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except (none / 0)

Sorry for the double post, but I saw something else you said.

Many things that are less important require an ID
What you've just said is that voting's not as important as things like opening a bank account or getting into an R-rated movie or buying cigarettes.

Maybe our views on what's important differ, but personally I can't think of a single thing you need an ID for that is the foundation of our society.  

Oh, I just did. In Indiana: Voting.


by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:40:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except (none / 0)

If you are an elderly non-driver it is a big deal to get a photo ID.  If you are a non-driving poor urbanite, it is equally difficult.  There are other ways of ensuring against fraud.  The requirement for photo ID puts a big burden on some and disenfranchises many.  If you drive you don't think twice about always having that type of ID but if you do not, and are limited in access to the DMV, or are handicapped, or cannot take the time off from work to wait in line for hours, it is a very big deal.


by mady on Tue May 06, 2008 at 11:47:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Purchasing alcohol in this country is not a civil right.  Driving a car is a privilege, not a right.  Your drivers license can be revoked (and god help you in Indiana if it was revoked yesterday and you don't have any other valid I.D.).  Credit cards are privileges.  Many gyms do not require I.D. for you to join.

Voting is an inalienable right, and the SC made a bad call.


by shalca on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:45:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Voting is an inalienable right

Than can be revoked under certain circumstances.

Even this right is not black and white.

Why can't 14 year olds vote if it is an "inalienable right" as you assert?


by reggie44pride on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:05:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

OK, (none / 0)

We don't have universal suffrage, which some people are unhappy about.  But felony disenfranchisement is a product of various sub-federal jurisdictions.  It's messy and I don't like it, but on this particular issue, i.e. the requirement that an otherwise eligible voter must  pay money to vote, we went out of the way to make an amendment, which is part of the supreme law of the land.

Amendment XXIV
Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote in any primary or other election for President or Vice President, for electors for President or Vice President, or for Senator or Representative in Congress, shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any State by reason of failure to pay any poll tax or other tax.

Section 2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

I would hope that arguing against this text itself would be unpopular, so the only remaining response is:

'the cost of an I.D. does not fall under "any poll tax or other tax".'

As I see it,

  1. I.D. cost is a tax.  
  2. I.D. cost is not specifically a poll tax as specified.  

Therefore I.D. cost in states where you need one to vote falls under "other tax" and is prohibited barring another amendment.


by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:58:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

that law is as likely to hurt Clinton as Obama.


For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!
by TeresaInPa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:46:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

(I'm guessing you won't hear Clinton complaining about there disenfranchisement though).

That's exactly right, because all of us Clintonista's love to suppress the vote whenever possible.  That's our goal when we wake up every morning:  let's see how many voters we can disenfranchise today!


"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin
by Denny Crane on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:47:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Speaking as an Obama supporter, I'd be extremely happy if Zogby turned out to be correct, but I'd also be really really really surprised.


by Frood on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:13:24 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Same here.

He got 47-41 for Zogby in the last night in Indiana. Nobody has had Obama as high as 47, I don't think. And the late movement is going to Obama.

If Zogby is right, there is one explanation: the gas tax holiday. It has been so universally criticized that even those desperate for lower pump prices see it as a pander and a gimmick.


by elrod on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:20:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (2.00 / 1)

even if it is pandering i want my taxes to be paid by Shell.


by bayareasg on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:22:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (2.00 / 1)

A shell game you say?


by elrod on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:22:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Oil companies and others in the chain of distribution already absorb about half of the gas tax. Taxing their profits rather than the consumer won't make much of a difference, since Oil companies are likely to raise prices to deal with any additional tax liability.


by DPW on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:26:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If zogby is right (none / 0)

I will dance in the street. No joke.


_____________
changiness
by lizardbox on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:48:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

ok I am so holding you to that. (none / 0)


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:03:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ok I am so holding you to that. (none / 0)

I will provide pictures


_____________
changiness
by lizardbox on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:29:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

ok, you keep the pants on (none / 0)

but I expect dancing


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:59:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Well Obama was supposed to win both Indiana and North Carolina, so maybe Zogby is right.  I still think Hillary fights on until June 3rd.


by karajan72 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:24:54 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

While I'd love for Zogby to be right, I think Clinton is going to win IN by 10.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:26:48 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

SUSA feels right on target to me, but I also don't feel like I understand the Democratic universe I'm currently inhabiting - so what do I know?

Tonight is the first night in this primary that I have participating in a predictions thread. It probably means I'm completely wrong.


by Little Otter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:28:34 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

don't look at the Clinton numbers, just look at the Obama numbers and compare those to the realclearpolitics averages of polls. In many states, Obama gets +/- 1-2 of that average i.e. Texas, PA, Ohio, NH, in others he exceeds them i.e. SC, WI, VA, GA, etc.

Right now, Zogby has Obama at 51 in NC and 45% in Indiana. SUSA has Obama at 50% in NC and 42% in Indiana. I think he will get close to that in IN and perhaps a bit more in NC.


by gomer on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:32:50 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

At the risk of sounding like a broken record -
A broken clock is right twice a day.

So Zogby's been close a couple of times.
They've been way, way off far more.


by johnnygunn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:38:49 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Unless Clinton carries both NC & IN (highly doubtful) or she doesn't get blown away in NC or wins IN by more than 5% then its going to be real hard for her to make any headway. KY & WV will go for her simply as a function of demographics, her best geographic area has been the Ohio River ground (western PA, E/SE Ohio, WV, KY, and by extention TN and western VA and probably southern IN). However unless Obama falls flat he will carry Oregon, SD, MT. By the time we get to Puerto Rico Obama may be so close to 2,025 that simply showing up will get him across the line.

What will happen is that once Obama gets within 100 votes of getting that magic number you will see the supers begin to fall quickly. Especially among the 20-25 or so in states he did well in that haven't pledged yet or haven't been selected.

The problem for Hillary is this - had today been March 3rd then she'd have the time and states to make it a game. IN FOOTBALL TERMS: We are at the 15th and goal now with Clinton's back at the goal line. After tomorrow, unless she does unusually well, we will be 1st and goal and her team will be inside the goal area.


by southerndemnut on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:48:27 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

I think regardless of the numbers in IN and NC if Obama wins NC you'll see a ton of supers come out for him in the following days. This along with PA was Clinton's last stand and she hasn't gotten the high win percentages to justify going on anymore.


by montana36 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:56:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

ah the mythical flood of supers.  dont worry that I am not putting on my waders yet. unless zogby nailed it, this thing will be cooking Wednesday. She doesnt need to win in NC, she needs to keep it close. There is only one number that will get her out of this race: 2025 for Mr. Obama. Speculating otherwise is wasted breath.. err..you know what I mean.


by hctb on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:46:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Not only didn't she win NC she wasn't able to keep it close at all. She will barely win IN as well. You might want to put those waders on, I think we'll see a lot of supers come out for Obama after this blowout.


by montana36 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:39:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Zogby is Obama's "favorite" pollster (2.00 / 3)

A post on 538.com has an analysis of the candidate skew today.  Zogby is the worst offender (no surprise).  Rasmussen also leans Obama (again, no surprise).

This chart is based on their final polls.

Zogby                 Obama +4.6
Strategic Vision      Obama +3.3
PPP                   Obama +2.7
Quinnipiac            Obama +1.6
Rasmussen             Obama +0.8
Suffolk               Obama +0.2
SurveyUSA             Clinton +0.8
Research 2000         Clinton +1.4
Mason-Dixon           Clinton +2.0
Insider Advantage     Clinton +2.1
ARG                   Clinton +4.5


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:54:47 AM EST

Re: Zogby is Obama's "favorite" pollster (none / 0)

What a surprise there.

That was a good post on polling bias.


by reggie44pride on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:26:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby is Obama's "favorite" pollster (none / 0)

Zogby's poll is the only one that including data from Monday.  Just looking at the Monday stats, Zogby has Obama 47, Clinton 41.  

So, his 2 day numbers may be higher because they reflect late movement that the other polls can't pick up.  


by ProfessorReo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:42:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby is Obama's "favorite" pollster (none / 0)

better analysis and clearer graphics..

http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/ 2008/05/how-much-does-pollster-matter-fo r-trend.html


by hctb on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:47:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Really don't care about Zogby. I have a lot more faith in SUSA, though I think the NC spread will ultimately be a good bit wider.


by sricki on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:56:44 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

I go with SUSA.  Anything less than double digits for Hillary in Indiana shows she's lost the momentum and anything greater than a 5 point win for Obama in Indiana is a blowout.


That One is the Right One for 2008.
by GFORD on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:03:29 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Anything greater than a 5 point win for Obama in NC is a blowout.


That One is the Right One for 2008.
by GFORD on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:04:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

If Clinton wins Indiana by 7 points and Obama wins North Carolina by 9 how many delegates will each get?


by Politicalslave on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:11:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

If Clinton wins Indiana by 7 points and Obama wins North Carolina by 9 how many delegates will each get?

From what I've read it depends heavily on how that margin of victory is spread across the various gerrymandered districts. If you had a spreadsheet, you could probably tweak the numbers so that either candidate could win by 7 or even 9 points and still get less delegates.

Here's an interesting site:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

All told, even if one candidate wins both elections by 10% it's not likely to net him/her more than about 20 delegates.

Like many of the challenges that would face a president, this primary system is extremely complex and winning it required a massive amount of research and planning well in advance. Hillary had the brains, power, experience, machine and money to do that, just as she in in 1992 for her healthcare reform efforts. I'm not sure what's behind these epic failures to get the job done, but it doesn't make me feel confident in her, even I weren't furious at her for running such a foul campaign.


McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist.
by obsessed on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:17:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (2.00 / 1)

Thank you very much Obsessed. I appreciate your time and thoughts.


by Politicalslave on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:36:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

so a 6 point BHO win in a heavily black & college student state that he led by 25 points less than a month ago, while heavily outspending her since is a blow out? hmmmmm that bar seems mighty low.


by BlueDoggyDogg on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:55:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

the change in percentages from a month ago is irrelevant to what a 'blowout' is in this context.

Indeed as you say, the "bar" has been lowered quite a bit as he continued to rack up those wins.  The margins Obama needs to clinch the nomination are negative.

If as is likely he gets +5-10% between both states, that will change the margins Hillary needs in the remaining  primaries from unheard-of to completely impossible.  A modest win that put HRC into a truly unfeasible situation would not be seen by the SDs as an overwhelming public rejection of Obama, which many of them have said is the only thing that could possibly turn this around.


by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:25:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (2.00 / 1)

perhaps "blow out" doesn't apply in such situations can we agree on that at least?


by BlueDoggyDogg on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:14:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I was just playing expectations. (none / 0)

If a poll says he wins by 6 then I say anything over that is a blowout.  


That One is the Right One for 2008.
by GFORD on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:32:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (2.00 / 1)

How's this for fair placement of the bar:

1) Accepting and understand the rules as they were originally laid out.

2) Managing all 54 (?) primaries so that at the end you have more delegates.

3) Campaigning with honesty and dignity.

Whether Hillary started out with a huge lead or whether she's slowed Obama's momentum are interesting to talk about, but the object of the game is and always has been getting the most delegates. If there had been a different object, Obama would have played it differently. As Hillary used to say in better times - it's not valuable to deal in hypotheticals.


McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist.
by obsessed on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:25:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

SUSA! (none / 0)

courting and winning over superdelegates is a legitimate part of that process, so if she wins that way, however unlikely it seems right now, I assume you'd be cool with that? BHO needs them too to get to 2025 you know....


by BlueDoggyDogg on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:20:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (2.00 / 1)

Zogby is trash. It has dearly earned that reputation.

It is a joke.


by optimisticBoy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:08:54 AM EST

thoughts (none / 0)

Hillary by 7 in Indiana and Obama by 10 in NC.


by highgrade on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:42:24 AM EST

Re: thoughts (none / 0)

Clinton +5.6 Indiana

Obama +12.3 North Carolina


by reggie44pride on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:48:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Zogby nailed PA exactly, but missed many of the early ones by a mile. SUSA was the best until recently. How did SUSA do on PA?


McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist.
by obsessed on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:04:30 AM EST

They did pretty good. (none / 0)

They were 50/44 for PA, +6 Clinton.  Actual results were +9.3 Clinton.  


by Homebrewer on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:20:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

SUSA said +6 Clinton in their final poll on PA.

It was +9.2


by reggie44pride on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:21:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

A lot of Obama fans have been pointing to potential college turnout in Indiana and North Carolina.  

It's almost the 2nd week of May; the VAST majority of college students are either

a) gone
b) taking final exams
c) moving out

I think college turnout for Obama is thus greatly overstated.  This should be good for 1-2 pts for Clinton in Indiana and North Carolina.


Repub319
by repub319 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:03:10 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

The majority of IN college kids also live in IN.  If a college kid already intended to vote, and school's over (it mostly is) then they have more free time to vote and will thus turnout more.  

Although don't pollsters try to compensate for stuff like this?


by semiquaver on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

The Obama folks have tried to get a lot of early votes from them.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:31:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

Polls are good for sensing the general states of a race and tracking trends. Obsessing over who got their final poll right is misplaced. There is movement on the day of an election and of course a great deal of shenanigans in some cases in the counting of ballots.

Today I am hoping for two solid victories by Obama. I don't know if that is going to happen and certainly Clinton is favored to win in Indiana. After those theoretical victories I hope Clinton fulfills her promise to her supporters and campaigns until June 3rd. However, I would hope that the tone of her campaign becomes overwhelmingly positive during the final month instead of more pandering and attesting to all the things she and McCain have done to be qualified for CinC.

But whatever...likelihood is she wins Indiana, Obama wins NC. Hillary gets 20 point or more wins out of KY and WV, pushing the media narrative of a party in crisis. Wright, Hamas, Ayers, Snipers in Tuzla, and flag pins are all anyone can seen to talk about again, and commentators pontificate about how much Puerto Rico hates Barack Obama.

Oh well...the debate has become as meaningless as Sports Talk Radio. We might as well air it out another month or hell until the last day of the convention. McCain is such a terrible candidate on the other side that he hasn't really capitalized in the head-to-heads. We should bash each other brains in and gloat in the very unlikely event that McCain wins on November 4th that we knew so and so couldn't win for this and this reason.

 


by wengler on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:59:36 AM EST

Then maybe she leads the PV (none / 0)

And the SDs put her over the top, giving us the better nominee and the better President.  

Or maybe Obama wraps it up today with two wins.


by activatedbybush on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:37:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Then maybe she leads the PV (none / 0)

And the SDs put her over the top, giving us the better nominee and the better President.  

Or maybe Obama wraps it up today with two wins.


by activatedbybush on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:37:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

The way this election goes, probably both will be wrong.


by hebi on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:10:06 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

So every pollster predicts an Obama win in NC.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:31:07 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

And every pollster but the demonstrated Obama-biased  Zogby predicts a Clinton win in IND.


Repub319
by repub319 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:02:06 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

SUSA has been off the mark in the South where there's a large AA population. Hasn't hit one yet properly under those circumstances.


by rikyrah on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:23:24 AM EST

Re: Zogby or SUSA? (none / 0)

I guess we'll find out soon - Zogo uses a more unusual method (interactive polling) and has a bad track-record, but did get it right a few times (was it luck?). SUSA has been good overall, but also messed up a couple states. Pollsters cannot predict regional turnout and age-groups very well - a slight change in these numbers can throw a poll off by several percent.


by sunnyaz08 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 10:36:55 AM EST


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