North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thread

by Todd Beeton, Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:15:03 PM EST

Interesting that while nationally Obama seems to have reversed Clinton's recent surge, all three new North Carolina polls show Clinton still ticking up a bit.

CandidateInsider Advantage 5/4 (5/1)Zogby 5/3-4 (5/2-3)PPP  5/3-4 (4/26-27)RCP 7-poll Ave.
Obama48 (49)48 (48)53 (51)49.6
Clinton45 (44)40 (39)43 (39)42.6

The key factor here is the racial polarization of the race. Insider Avantage has Obama winning blacks 79-18 while Clinton wins whites 59-33. According to Matt Towery, if Clinton is able to reach 60% of the white vote, she could "pull off a victory" but IA has the poll much tighter than the others. Alternatively, PPP is showing the racial divide to be even more stark.

We estimate that 35% of the primary electorate will be black, and with Obama winning those voters at a rate of 84-11, Clinton's 60-34 advantage with white voters is only enough to pull his lead down to ten.

PPP believes the advantage Barack Obama has had among black voters turning out in force to vote early will make it impossible for Clinton to catch him.

Zogby too has African-American turnout at 35% but has Obama winning among them 77-10 and Clinton winning among white voters by 55-34, thus accounting for a slightly tighter race.

The undecided vote is fairly consistent among all polls, coming in at 7% or 8%. A big question is who exactly the undecided voters are and will they break for Obama as they have in states demographically similar to North Carolina, or will they break for Clinton as they have among voting groups pre-disposed to voting for her.

How do you think it will go?




Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, north carolina primary, hillary clinton, barack obama (all tags)

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Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

I think Obama will outperform the polls slightly in NC for a 10-point win, and Clinton outperforms polls slightly in IN for a 6-point win.


by ChrisKaty on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:17:45 PM EST

I think it will go all the way to the Convention, (none / 0)

and due to a fractured party we'll get President McCain, and we won't get the Congressional victories that we might have won.

Congratulations all around!


Clinton Democrats care about the same things I do, most importantly beating John McCain.
by TrueBlueCT on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:50:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Earned (2.00 / 1)

It will serve the Democratic party (us) right. We will have bought and paid for the losses and gained nothing but animosity for our efforts.


by liquidbread11 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:03:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My Prediction (2.00 / 2)

NC: 51-49 Clinton
IN: 56-44 Clinton
I proudly support Barack Obama for President!
by Zeitgeist9000 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:18:48 PM EST

Re: My Prediction (2.00 / 1)

I like your prediction.
But I think the IN will be a little larger:

Clinton- 57
Obama- 42

 Hillary '08:  Real Solutions for Real Change


by stefystef on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:25:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (2.00 / 2)

I appreciate someone else saying what I've been feeling - while I think there's a lot of nervy confidence in some Obama quarters, the result in NC is single digits, and could be 51-49 in either one's favor. Which, I'd point out, will be terrible for Obama, and is not just "good enough" for Clinton. It's a game changer result. Second, she's got Indiana, probably by close to 10. Even the Obama campaign seems to know this.
by nycweboy1 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:27:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (2.00 / 1)

What is interesting to me is that no one is talking about the fact that Obama has a double digit lead in NC and now he doesn't.

They made a HUGE deal of Hillary losing percentages to Obama in PA, but NC is kept quiet.

The mask is slipping...


by stefystef on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:29:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (none / 0)

And then she won by nearly 10 and it was trumpeted as huge, even though she was expected to do much better.

My secondary prediction is that Obama will actually surpass double digits in NC, but quite a few people on here will call it a huge loss and probably be colossal jerks to Obama supporters about her single-digit win in Indiana (which probably won't be big enough to justify this neverending campaign).


"Tell me about your work ethic." "Well, I don't think ethnics do no work. I mean, that's they problem, really." "Overt racial prejudice. Impressive."
by vcalzone on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:10:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (none / 0)

Obama did a good job of closing the gap in PA, and Clinton has done a good job of closing the gap in NC.  Both candidates are campaigning well now, unlike earlier when Clinton was getting outclassed.

What's with the "mask is slipping" stuff btw?  Can't you make a point without a thinly-veiled insult?


by ChrisKaty on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:25:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (none / 0)

What I find interesting is Senator Clinton can not
catch up in the delegant count. Obama has won but that's according to the rules and math.
by Politicalslave on Mon May 05, 2008 at 07:05:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (2.00 / 1)

"the result in NC is single digits, and could be 51-49 in either one's favor. Which, I'd point out, will be terrible for Obama, and is not just "good enough" for Clinton. It's a game changer result."

Clinton needs delegates -- lots of them, fast. For her, another moral win is another practical loss.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:52:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (none / 0)

Delegates are as irrelevant at this point as--delegates! Once Clinton closes with a solid string of wins, no major players will be clamoring for her exit.


I proudly support Barack Obama for President!
by Zeitgeist9000 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:06:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (none / 0)

Keep telling yourself this.

I guarantee you that the delegate count will indeed be an enormous factor (probably the greatest factor) in the minds of undecided superdelegates.


by sorrodos on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:20:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (none / 0)

You really think the superdelegates are going to abandon the system and overturn the pledged delegate leader?


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:24:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (none / 0)

'You really think the superdelegates are going to abandon the system and overturn the pledged delegate leader?'

Well, it will be interesting, especially when some part of FL and MI are seated (advantage Clinton), and if the supposed irregularities in the caucus states lead to changes in delegate apportionment, and/or are reported to the SDs.

By the way, your answer shows that you do not understand 'the system'. Supers can change their minds at any time, for any reason. Pledged delegates are also just that--'pledged'. That, too, can change under certain circumstances.

This isn't over. It's merely advantage, Obama at this point.


by dark1p on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:03:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (none / 0)

>> By the way, your answer shows that you do not
>> understand 'the system'. Supers can change their
>> minds at any time, for any reason. Pledged
>> delegates are also just that--'pledged'. That,
>> too, can change under certain circumstances.

Yes, I understand perfectly that superdelegates can change their mind, and technically so can pledged delegates (though I'd be rather surprised if any pledged delegates on either side switched their support).

What neither you, nor any other Clinton supporter, have yet offered is a convincing reason why they WOULD change their minds.


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (none / 0)

The only superdelegates changing their minds are
the former Clinton superdelegates and long time friends.
by Politicalslave on Mon May 05, 2008 at 07:08:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Delegates are irrelevant? (none / 0)

Haven't heard that one before. You get a spin point for originality.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:25:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BIG CRITICAL NIGHT for Both (2.00 / 1)

NC= 50-48 Clinton
IN= 58-42 Clinton

I predict that this will be a Very Huge Night for Clinton & the Turning Point in this 2008 primary.

I agree 200% with Russert.

"If Clinton somehow upsets Obama in both IN & NC, it would cause a FATAL COLLAPSE & TOTAL LOSS of CONFIDENCE in Obama. Not only would she win WV,KY & PR by even larger numbers, but Oregon would surely fall for Clinton. No Political Party would nominate a candidate who in the month of May was swept & who just happen to lose OH,TX,PA,IN,NC,WY.KY,OR,PR. "

Tomorrow night is probably the Most Critical Night for both Clinton & Obama in this 2008 Primary.

Its the last chance for Clinton to knock-off Obama in a Large State that he is favored to win.

On the other hand, it is a chance for Obama to pretty much give Clinton a Knock-out punch by defeating her in both IN & NC.


by libdemusa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:33:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BIG CRITICAL NIGHT for Both (none / 0)

Yes, it's a make-or-break for HRC.

I think it's highly likely that she will win INdiana by 10 points or more.
She also has a sliver of a chance to win NC, certainly to keep it low.

If HRC wins both, it is over for Obama.
If she wins big in Indiana and barely loses in NC, the race will go on, but Obama will lose the remaining contests - including Oregon.

Of course, if Clinton does poorly, she is out even faster.


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:39:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BIG CRITICAL NIGHT for Both (2.00 / 1)

"Yes, it's a make-or-break for HRC."

The only "make" scenario for Clinton is 60-40 wins in both states. Otherwise, it's all just more empty spin.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:55:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BIG CRITICAL NIGHT for Both (2.00 / 1)

Honey chile -
If Clinton WINS in NC, Obama's campaign will be done.
No Democratic super delegates are going to knowingly nominate the next McGovern.
by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:58:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BIG CRITICAL NIGHT for Both (none / 0)

The next McGovern?  You people really are in your own little world, aren't you?


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:25:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BIG CRITICAL NIGHT for Both (none / 0)

At least Half of All registered democrats look at Obama as either the Next:

McGovern, Dukakis or Mondale.

That's reality.

Johnnygun just expressed the Number 1 concern about Obama in the Fall.

Rebutting it does not change the Perception of millions of democrats


by libdemusa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:30:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BIG CRITICAL NIGHT for Both (none / 0)

>> At least Half of All registered democrats look at
>> Obama as either the Next:

>> McGovern, Dukakis or Mondale.

>> That's reality.

Remarkable.  I'm sure you can give a citation for the poll you picked that up from.


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:03:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BIG CRITICAL NIGHT for Both (none / 0)

Kobi,

Based on your two posts, I think you are kinda lost in the reality of today's dynamics. Your points are stuck in Pre-Ohio, Pre-Wrightgate.

First, you still keep on talking about HRC needing to win in landslides to catch him in the pledged delegate count. That's a DONE issue. All DNC members, SD's & most of the party are past that already. HRC will NOT catch Obama in the Pledged delegate. But Obama will NOT reach the Pledge Delagate number either in order to clinch the nomination.

Today's battle is all about Super Delegates.

Its all about Electability & Popular votes.
 Ultimately, the votes of all SD's.


by libdemusa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:28:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BIG CRITICAL NIGHT for Both (none / 0)

Nicely put, Lib.


by dark1p on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:05:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BIG CRITICAL NIGHT for Both (none / 0)

You're stuck in hillaryland aka fantasy island.

The Wright Distraction broke on March 12 and in that time Hillary has not only failed to gain ground on Obama -- she's lost ground to him in delegate support. (He's gotten 8 s-delegates closer since Friday)

So what's her next silver bullet to kill Obama? None of the others have done it.

Face it. The escalator Hillary's on is going down faster than she can run up it.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:14:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction (none / 0)

That's just nuts. Why would you put your hopes so high?


"Tell me about your work ethic." "Well, I don't think ethnics do no work. I mean, that's they problem, really." "Overt racial prejudice. Impressive."
by vcalzone on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:41:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the theme will be determined by the early call (none / 0)

If Indiana goes pretty much as I expect it (a comfortable HRC win), the story of the night may be Indiana, because it will give talking heads a storyline to keep repeating while they count the votes in NC. The last thing Obama wants tomorrow night is his win in NC to be overshadowed for a few hours by the pundits asking, "Why couldn't he win in his neighboring state?"

NC:

BHO 54
HRC 46

IN:

HRC 55
BHO 45


by njsketch on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:20:25 PM EST

Re: the theme will be determined by the early call (none / 0)

I imagine that NC's winner will be announced before Indiana (Indiana is in a later time zone), but maybe not.


by DPW on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:25:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the theme will be determined by the early call (none / 0)

I hope the news people will wait until all the polls are closed before making any announcements.


by stefystef on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:28:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Really? (none / 0)

OK, I was going to make a pretty nasty comment here about how Indiana is in the same time zone as North Carolina, but...

MOST of Indiana is in the eastern time zone, but a few western counties are in central time.

Boy, it must truly suck to live right on the edge of a time zone.

http://www.timetemperature.com/tzus/indi ana_time_zone.shtml


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:00:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Really? (none / 0)

You know, I just assumed than IN was all central time. I knew that the line went through Nashville and Pensicola, both of which are west of Indiana, but evidently the line jerks west a bit in Kentucky. Thanks for not getting nasty.


by DPW on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:37:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the theme will be determined by the early call (2.00 / 2)

The REAL story will be if Obama loses NC.  Then he'll be in real trouble and DailyKos' head will explode.  That should be fun.

It will be a testimony to Bill Clinton's campaigning in the rural areas, which is growing bigger than the urban cities in NC.


by stefystef on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:27:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:CNN & MSNBC agree on this one point (none / 0)

I have never seen all the political commentators of both CNN & MSNBC agree on this ONE POINT:

"If Clinton wins both IN & NC, it would be FATAL for the Obama campaign."

It would Re-Confirm everyone's worse fears in the Post Wrightgate, Post Bittergate that Obama has lost support of White voters & thus cannot beat McCain.

I don't think Obama supporters understand or realize how critical tomorrow night is not just for Clinton but for Obama as well.


by libdemusa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:43:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Mine (2.00 / 1)

NC:  O:58 C: 42
IN   C:52 O: 48

Clinton drops Wednesday.


by parahammer on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:20:47 PM EST

Re: Mine (2.00 / 0)

I disagree completely (see below), but I must admit that reading those words gives me butterflies:)


by Democratic Unity on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:22:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mine (none / 0)

Spot on.


Obama/Warner 2008
by MissVA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:22:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mine (none / 0)

Drop a hot new single for the Billboard Hot 100?

That'd be hot.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:27:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No way she drops if she splits (none / 0)

Mine:

IN: C+7.5
NC: O+10


by activatedbybush on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:47:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No way she drops if she splits (none / 0)

>> IN: C+7.5
>> NC: O+10

Probably the most realistic prediction I've seen in this thread.

The problem with that outcome for Clinton is that it leaves Obama's delegate lead unchanged (or even very slightly wider) with another 187 pledged delegates off the table.

Obama's closing on the finish line, and Clinton isn't making up any ground.


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:28:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No way she drops if she splits (none / 0)

Virtually No Super Delegate, No Obama supporter, No Clinton supporter Expects Clinton to overtake Obama in the Pledged Delegate count.

With that said, virtually No Super delegate expects Obama to Clinch the Pledged Delegate number for the nomination either.

The dynamics of this race has changed.

The SD's will decide the nominee since No One will clinch the Pledge Del.

Thus, it will boil down to Electability, Popular Vote & Pledge Delegates.


by libdemusa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:34:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No way she drops if she splits (none / 0)

>> The SD's will decide the nominee since No One
>> will clinch the Pledge Del.

Indeed.  What's remarkable about this (as I say below) is the conviction among Clinton supporters that everyone's going to see it exactly your way.


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:04:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

predictions (none / 0)

Obama by 13 in NC.

Hillary by 6 in IN.


by Democratic Unity on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:21:01 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll (none / 0)

Does anybody know how undecided voters in Obama-friendly states tend to break?

Clinton seems to consistantely win the undecided vote, but I still think Obama pulls this one out.


Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.
by SFValues on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:21:35 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll (none / 0)

Obama outperformed the polls in VA, SC and GA by double digits.

But that a long time ago.


by snaktime on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:50:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

O-56, C-44 (2.00 / 1)

Obama by 12. The early voting numbers--according to PPP, SUSA, etc.--indicates a significant initial advantage. I wonder if IA and Zogby poll early voters or not. Zogby's trouble in California (and other states) seemed to be attributable to his failure to account for early voting.


by DPW on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:22:08 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

They underestimate Obama support in the South. They did it in GA and SC. NC will be a Obama blowout.


Obama/Warner 2008
by MissVA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:23:51 PM EST

Re: (none / 0)

Did anyone notice that each of the polls listed show Hillary gaining?  Doesn't look like Obama's going to have the blow out win in N.C. to offset Hillary's wins in Ohio and PA.


by karajan72 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:24:18 PM EST

Re: (2.00 / 1)

Perhaps not, but she's still trying to couter his blow out month prior to Ohio and Texas.  


by HSTruman on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:32:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (2.00 / 1)

IN: Clinton 53, Obama 47
NC: Obama 56, Clinton 44
"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:26:33 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

That's my prediction exactly.  In NC, the early voting has been huge for Obama - he's up more than 20 points with the early voters just over 40% African-American.  Either Obama has a superior GOTV operation banking his votes, or NC will have phenomenal African-American turnout.  Either way, Obama is likely to overperform the polls just like everywhere else in the South.

In Indiana, I could certainly see the margin being larger.  I wonder if the gax tax holiday will work or backfire for Senator Clinton.  If it works, I think she'll win by more than 6.


by CA Pol Junkie on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:43:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

Where have you seen he is up 20 points?  Can you link this? I live in NC and they are talking about turnout but have not released any counts yet.


by mashews on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:18:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

PPP and SUSA polls include subsamples for those who've already voted. Obama led by 29 in todays PPP and by 18 in the last SUSA. The margin of error, however, is much higher for the subsample, so these numbers shouldn't be given the greatest confidence. However, based on the demographical data we have on early voters (provided by the state), we know that AA voters constitute 40% of the early voting electorate.


by DPW on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:58:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

I'll go with mirror images, with IN 54-46 Clinton, and NC 54-46 Obama.  


John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way
by bosdcla14 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:32:35 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

Indiana: Obama wins by 2%
NC: Obama by 15%

Internally they are tied in Indiana.


by sweet potato pie on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:32:36 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

How do you know about internals in Indiana?


by elrod on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:33:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

That looks too good.  What do you mean "internally they are tied?"


by mady on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:36:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

One of my friends' father is very close to the Obamas. He is also one of their finance chairs.  You do know that the 10 or so(literally) bundlers know the internal numbers as it has to do with fundraising goals.


by sweet potato pie on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:17:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (2.00 / 1)

That must be why they're spending all their time in NC.  

LOL.

Internally, I think Clinton is up 10+ in Indiana, and they're within 5 in NC, which is why both candidates are spending so much time there.

Obama is clearly playing defense at this point.  College student turnout will be heavily depressed, and white rural turnout will be high.


by RedSox04 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:45:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

Wrong. Obama had 23 campaign stops in Indiana this weekend. He had only one event in NC today and is back in Indiana for today and tomorrow.


by sweet potato pie on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:16:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Black support will approach 90 (none / 0)

Obama has won black support at levels approaching 90 percent everywhere. The only question is turnout, and so far it's very high.

I don't see whites going to Hillary by over 63% given the high concentration of white Democrats in the Raleigh-Durham area. Hillary will run up big leads in the West (not Asheville) and in the Piedmont counties north of Charlotte.

Final prediction: Obama gets 57 and Clinton gets 43 - it's a 14 point win and a 15 delegate pickup for Obama.

In Indiana I see Clinton winning by 8, 54-46.  But she only gets about 4 more delegates, 40-36.

Delegate margin after PA, IN and NC is even.

She picks up 8 delegates in WV and 14 in KY, but he picks up 10 in OR, netting 12 for Hillary. Then Obama nabs 5 more out of SD and MT while Hillary nets 10 out of PR. Final result: Hillary picks up 7 net delegates from PA on.

Unless Hillary wins NC in a huge upset, superdelegates continue their trickle to Obama. He ends up on June 3 with about a 150 pledged delegate lead and a 400,000 popular vote margin without FL (100,000 with FL). Superdelegates say, "It was a really close, hard-fought race but Obama has won out in all the important metrics" and flood to Obama. Obama makes a deal allowing FL and MI to sit at the convention as long as the superdelegates continue to vote for him in numbers that get him to 2204.

That's my prediction.


by elrod on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:33:15 PM EST

You've got the conventional wisdom (none / 0)

I think.   It will make a big difference if Clinton can claim the popular vote w/FL.  


by activatedbybush on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:50:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You've got the conventional wisdom (2.00 / 3)

I really think the popular vote is a silly metric when many states held caucuses.  There already is a metric for who won, and the metric is delegates.


by snaktime on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:53:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You've got the conventional wisdom (none / 0)

Actually, you're right, it's delegates, NOT PLEDGED DELEGATES.  This includes the superdelegates, and one of the things they can consider in their vote is whether one candidate has won the popular vote.  

What's silly is claiming that pledged delegates should mean more than popular votes, since caucuses are as undemocratic as they come (they would certainly be illegal for actual elections (as opposed to nominating elections) since they would violate the Voting Rights Act).  

But you keep getting your "facts" from Daily Kos.


by RedSox04 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:57:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What's silly is pretending (2.00 / 2)

there is such a thing as the "popular vote" when primaries and caucuses are apples and oranges.


by JJE on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:01:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You've got the conventional wisdom (none / 0)

I don't really understand why you are being testy with me, since I already agreed that the metric is delegates.  Yes, that includes pledged and super, and Hillary has every right to try to persuade super delegates that they should care about the popular vote.  

I just think that's a dumb argument, given that not all states held primaries.  Your point that caucuses are undemocratic is also an argument she is free to make to the superdelegates.  But whatever her arguments, as a matter of mathematical consistency a popular vote count is a statistical mess.  It requires combining votes in primaries and votes at caucuses and votes in unsanctioned contests in FL and MI.  Adding these up and comparing them as if they are all the same is nonsensical whether it shows that Obama or Clinton "wins."  


by snaktime on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:24:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You've got the conventional wisdom (none / 0)

But what will likely be the largest factor in the decisions of undecided superdelegates is the delegate count.

Keep telling yourself that the "estimable" (Jerome's own word) popular vote is going to be the deciding factor.  Its. Not. Gonna. Happen.


by sorrodos on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:26:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Deciding Factor ?? (none / 0)

"Are going to nominate a loser in November?"


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:30:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Deciding Factor ?? (none / 0)

The problem with that argument is that it relies on the audience believing Obama is a loser.  This is generally not the case outside of the die-hard core of Clinton supporters.

Indeed, the fact that Obama has taken on the spouse of a former president, someone with huge amounts of institutional support who had a 200+ delegate lead before the Iowa caucus, and now stands with a 130-delegate lead makes him a winner in most people's eyes.


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:47:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Deciding Factor ?? (none / 0)

The elusive 'most people'.

Credit where it's due: Obama built up quite the lead before anything negative about him hit the fan. Which the 'spouse of a former president' already had before she started.

However, alleged caucus irregularities and FL and MI aside, both candidates are running neck and neck in the dreaded Unfavorable category. She seems to have got a bit better and he's plummeted from the heights of January and February.

Wasn't it Obama himself who said that Clinton's high negatives made her unelectable? Guess that means he's now unelectable. Unless he was, you know, engaging in politics as usual when he said that. And when he said a lot of other things.

If he hangs on, I'll vote for him in November. He doesn't deserve it, but I'll vote against the Republicans, as usual.

The last time I voted FOR a Democrat was Bill Clinton. But Obama has explained to us that his two terms were just as bad as the Bushes. Reagan....now there was a president, right, Barry?


by dark1p on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:18:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Deciding Factor ?? (none / 0)

>> Wasn't it Obama himself who said that Clinton's
>> high negatives made her unelectable? Guess that
>> means he's now unelectable. Unless he was, you
>> know, engaging in politics as usual when he said
>> that. And when he said a lot of other things.

I'm sure you can provide a citation for that, right?


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:37:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Deciding Factor ?? (none / 0)

Elusive?

You mean the majority of people who have voted in contests for the Democratic nomination?


by sorrodos on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:27:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You've got the conventional wisdom (2.00 / 1)

Yes, you and the other Clinton supporters who keep saying that the total delegate count is what matters are entirely correct.  You're also entirely correct that the superdelegates are free to use any metric they want to make up their minds.  Dean in fact said as much last month.

What I (and I think many other people) find confusing is that you folks seem to be convinced that the superdelegates will apply precisely the metric that you want them to apply.  That is, you seem to be convinced that your way of looking at things (popular vote, counting caucus votes the same as primary votes, including the unsanctioned Florida and Michigan races on some rationale, etc) is so obviously correct that once the wise and exalted superdelegates really sit down and look at thing, they'll be so completely convinced of your correctness that they'll vote en masse for Clinton.

Whereas what I'm observing is that different superdelegates have different reasons for supporting one candidate or the other, and that they've been trickling in for both candidates over the course of the primary season (and indeed the trend in superdelegate endorsements for the past several months has strongly favored Obama).

Given that Obama's lead of 150-ish pledged delegates seems unlikely to significantly change by the end of the primary season, Clinton really does need a huge surge in superdelegate endorsements to close the nomination.  You may think that's going to happen, but you're basing that on the faith that the remaining superdelegates will choose to evaluate the race in exactly the way you want them to.

Whereas if things keep going the way they have been for the last several months, Obama will win fairly easily.


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:44:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You've got the conventional wisdom (none / 0)

Frood you are making too much sense. I've enjoyed your comments and look forward to more.


by Politicalslave on Mon May 05, 2008 at 07:24:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Poll Update And Prediction Thread (none / 0)

I call:

IN: C 53, O 47
NC: O 56, C 44

One thing we have learned by now - the "undecided" and "margin of error" in these polls tend to swing toward whatever the state's demographics predict.  In Indiana that's a real wash, but in North Carolina that means that Obama will do significantly better than the RCP average, so I predict him by 12 points.

I want to stress - the slightest dent in his 90% control over the AA bloc will be scrutinized and publicized extensively.  He could only win NC by less than 10 points by screwing up very badly.


by bobbank on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:34:20 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

From the NC State Board of Elections

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR /VR%20Stats/vr_stats_results.asp?EC=05-0 3-2008

African American - 20.6%
Democrat - 45.3%
Independent - 21.4%
Republican - 33.3%

Since the primary is open to Democrats AND Independents, the question is how many Independents are going to turn out.  Yes, African Americans make up, perhaps, 36% to 37% of registered Democrats (since the vast majority of Af Amers are registered Dems); however, they are only a tiny fraction of Independents.  

If Independents turn out at a rate of 75% of Democrats and if Obama gets 90% of the black vote while Clinton gets 2/3s of the white vote - then Obama will barely win 52% to 48%.  However, if the Independent turnout is at an equal rate to the Democratic turnout, then Obama might lose (51% to 49%).


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:34:55 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

true, but if former patterns hold and obama wins independents (been a few months since we had an open primary, if memory serves), that would add to his numbers.

i still believe pollsters are underestimating his ground game, as they did in VA and SC.

Obama: 57
Clinton: 43

Or thereabouts.

I think she takes Indiana 53-47...


by jbill on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:47:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

One of the more interesting slices of tomorrow's results will be the actual AA vote. There have been rumblings that some people are very angry about the way Wright got thrown under the bus (he does have a lot of company there, doesn't he?).

If somehow the long-shot possibility of BO getting under 80% of AAs, he's toast.


by dark1p on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:25:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

I don't know how many independents voted in the Democratic primary in early voting, but it must not have been alot since overall the early voters were 40% African-American.  Survey USA and PPP both had independents representing 14% of the primary vote.


by CA Pol Junkie on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:49:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

That would make Independents voting at a rate half that of Democrats.
Even if half of the Independents were Dem-leaning and half GOP-leaning, I would think a larger percentage would be motivated to vote in the Dem primary than the GOP one.

Who are the NC Independents?
Are they high or low motivation voters?
Are they more like Midwestern Indies or not?
We shall see tomorrow.

I think 14% is a bit low.


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:07:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TWo Things (2.00 / 1)

People keep forgetting two things:

One, we are in Post Wright, Post Bitter era.

You cannot compare the Pre-Wright to the Post Wright numbers. ( Read someone comparing the outcome in NC to previous numbers in SC & GA)

Southern White voters are in a different mind set in Post Wrightgate, Post Bittergate.

Two, NC's Independent voters are Overwhelmingly White & overwhelmingly moderate/conservative.

Virtually All Blacks & virtually all liberal whites are democrats in NC.

The huge independent white voters will make or break Clinton & Obama in this state.

This has been the Number One Target of Bill Clinton every single day. 5 to 7 towns per day.


by libdemusa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:51:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Two Things (none / 0)

Orville or Wilbur??
Perfect, given that's it's North Carolina.

;-)  ;-)  ;-)


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:08:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

In early voting, 350K Dems (13% turnout) and 50K unaffiliated (5%) have voted in the Dem primary.  So unaffiliated has accounted for around 13% of the vote...don't see this number rising much.


by jimotto on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:57:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (2.00 / 1)

Early voting is not representative of total voting.  None of us have any idea what the final demographic turnout numbers will look like.


by RedSox04 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:58:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (2.00 / 1)

Unaffiliated voters vote at much higher rates on election day. Hardcore partisans vote early. People who are wishy-washy tend to wait til the last minute.


by LakersFan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:06:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

I think you have nailed it.
To make extrapolations from the 20% or voters with the most at stake is to ignore those who are less involved politically and who decide late.
by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:10:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

This is a primary, with potentially long lines.  Wishy washy people may very well think it is not worth it.  Cuts both ways.  I don't see unaffiliated hitting more than 15% on election day.


by jimotto on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:15:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (2.00 / 1)

Early voting has always attracted partisan core registered voters.

Unaffiliated voters show up on election day.

You cannot compare the Liberal base or the Conservative base to unaffiliated voters.

Its like comparing political fanatics to regular voters who are more concerned with exercising their right to vote.

Big difference!


by libdemusa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:41:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I tend to believe PPP on this one (none / 0)

I believe the underlying dynamics of PPP. SUSA's poll last week was very similar exepte that it had ``AA'' voting percentage at 32 %. If we increase that to 35%, that would have given a 50-42 split in favor of Sen. Obama.  

BTW, anyobne know if SUSA is going to have NC poll out today.


by ann0nymous on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:39:54 PM EST

Re: I tend to believe PPP on this one (none / 0)

It isn't going to be 35% in a semi-open primary.


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:11:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I tend to believe PPP on this one (none / 0)

It was 41% voting Dem for the governor in 2004.  Over 50% voting Dem for president.  I think both of those were "open" elections.


by jimotto on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:17:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I tend to believe PPP on this one (none / 0)

In the presidential race, the vast number of white voters went GOP - as the NC results clearly indicated.  Thus, the remaining Dem vote had, by simple math, a high percentage of AA voters.  Even in the gubernatorial race, it was contested - thus drawing a large portion of Indies into the GOP column.  

The primary this year has none of those parameters.  There is little reason for Indies to vote in the GOP primary and GOP-leaning Dems can't.


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:28:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I tend to believe PPP on this one (none / 0)

You realize our democratic governor won the state 56-44, right?

You also realize there's a GOP governers race, and alot of county races, right?  


by jimotto on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:45:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I tend to believe PPP on this one (none / 0)

>> You realize our democratic governor won the state
>> 56-44, right?

I don't know jack about North Carolina, but I do know that you can't compare state office election results to federal office election results.  Candidates for state-level office have much greater freedom to tailor the platforms and run counter to specific aspects of the party's national platform.  

Massachusetts, of all places, had a solid line of Republican governors from 1990 to 2006, but there's no chance in hell of the state going for a Republican president short of a Mondale-style blowout.


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:54:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I tend to believe PPP on this one (none / 0)

You realize that those results mean that Indies nearly split 50/50 based upon registration numbers.  In fact, the numbers I use are this month's.  I suspect the Dem race has upped Dem registration and, actually, the Indies DID split 50/50 in the 2004 gov race.


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:54:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Game Changer? (2.00 / 1)

Wasn't Obama always ahead in NC by over 20 points?  Now it is done to single digits and Hillary winning IN?  If this isn't a game changer, I don't know what is.

Spells big trouble for Obama and the democrats this fall.


by Scope441 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:40:14 PM EST

Re: Game Changer? (none / 0)

in the same way that hillary was up 26 in penn and won by 9.2. not a game changer. just demographics.

the game changer for her would be a win in nc, and a blowout in indiana. if those things don't happen, the status quo prevails.


by jbill on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:48:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Game Changer? (none / 0)

Why should Obama outperform?
It is she that she should be winning by over 25% and she is not
.
She is losing.
Obama/Warner 2008
by MissVA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:52:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Game Changer? (none / 0)

The clinton campaign is at the point where all they can realistically hope for is enough good spin to keep the death march going for a few more weeks.


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:58:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You don't know what is. (none / 0)

If this isn't a game changer, I don't know what is."


Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129
by Kobi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:59:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Game Changer? (none / 0)

If you look at all the last 40 polls out of NC, Obama's lead was only greater than 20 in 4 of them. And, if you go all the way back to November, you will even find a poll showing Clinton with a 24 point lead. With the exception of PPP and one Rasmussen poll, most pollsters have consistently shown Obama's lead in the 5 to 15 range.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democra tic_primary-275.html#polls


by DPW on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:17:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

NC:
55(o) 44(c)

IN:
53(c) 46(o)


!
by alex100 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:42:34 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

I was about to post a prediction, but i think you took mine. I might lower that win in Indiana to 5 or so, but I think you're right on the money. Obama will blow out NC, Hillary will win IN comfortably.


"Tell me about your work ethic." "Well, I don't think ethnics do no work. I mean, that's they problem, really." "Overt racial prejudice. Impressive."
by vcalzone on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:06:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Upset of the Century (2.00 / 1)

She'll pull it off!


by LDFan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:05:57 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (2.00 / 2)

Indiana: Clinton wins by 8.4%
Clinton: 54.2
Obama: 45.8

NC: Clinton wins by 0.1%
Clinton: 49.5
Obama: 49.4
Other: 0.9


by markjay on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:08:11 PM EST

Re: North Carolina (none / 0)

Hillary +10 (55-45) in Indiana
Obama +8 (54-46) in NC
Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:09:52 PM EST

Clinton WINS by a 156% (none / 0)

mark my words!


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:11:58 PM EST

Re: Clinton WINS by a 156% (2.00 / 1)

Anything less and she will have lost the expectations game.  Which, as we all know, is FAR more important than total delegates.  


by HSTruman on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:18:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

In Hillary's campaign Obama gets ONLY 79% of the AA vote. In case you hadn't noticed, the AA community is a little ticked off at the Clintons.


"I am standing with Barack Obama to say, `Yes, we can!'" Hillary Clinton 6/7/08
by feliks on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:16:24 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

Who said AA' are ticked off at the Clintons ?

The only people ticked off at the Clinton's are Markos & MYDD Obama fans.


by libdemusa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:45:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

>> Who said AA' are ticked off at the Clintons ?

The New York Times did.

Her favorable rating among African-Americans is down 36% since July 2007.  Her unfavorable rating is up 17% over the same period.


by Frood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:59:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

Obama by 16 in North Carolina, Clinton by 6 in Indiana.

Just about every pollster has underestimated Obama's support in the South.


by Skaje on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:20:35 PM EST

Re: North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thre (none / 0)

Obama 17 in NC
cLINTON BY 3 IN.

New Insider's advantage poll for Indiana:
InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research
Indiana Democratic Primary Poll - 05.05.08
© InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research 2008
Q.1. If the election were held today in the Indiana Democratic primary, who would you vote for?
CLINTON 47.6
OBAMA 44.2
UN-DECIDED'S 8

Age Gender Race Party
Total 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Male Female
White Black
Hispanic
Other
Democrat
Republican
Independent
(Base)
(502) (90) (151) (166) (95) (241) (261) (437) (50) (10) (5) (345) (36) (121)
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Clinton 47.6 32.2 47.9 46.2 63.7 44.8 50.0 53.8 4.0 .0 26.5 49.8 36.2 42.9
Obama 44.2 64.3 48.6 37.5 29.8 51.2 37.8 40.9 80.2 .0 58.3 39.2 63.4 51.1
Undecided 8.2 3.5 3.5 16.3 6.6 4.0 12.2 5.3 15.8 100.0 15.2 11.0 .4 6.0


by BDM on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:26:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Prediction: (none / 0)

Chalk it up...write it down

NC - Huge upset with Hillary winning 52-48
It is the "game changer"

IN - Another upset (see Obama's spreadsheet) with Hillary winning 57-43

The supers will now have to ask themselves "did he peak in Winconsin?"


by LDFan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:21:37 PM EST

Prediction: (none / 0)

Chalk it up...write it down

NC - Huge upset with Hillary winning 52-48
It is the "game changer"

IN - Another upset (see Obama's spreadsheet) with Hillary winning 57-43

The supers will now have to ask themselves "did he peak in Winconsin?"


by LDFan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:21:48 PM EST

This prediction is silly (none / 0)

And I hope tomorrow you Hillary folks predicting a NC win will be honest about your mispredictions.


by snaktime on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:27:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]