UPDATE on another new poll at bottom
Note: this diary expounds on an update to a previous post, here.
Two new national polls, one of which is being misrepresented by some media sources, strongly show Clinton momentum.
A USA Today/Gallup poll released on 5/5/08 gives Clinton a 7 point lead over Obama, "the first time in 3 months she has been ahead." USA Today writes:
Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.
The USA Today/Gallup poll also demonstrates Clinton's strength on a number of variables:
Clinton Obama Advantage:Is a strong and decisive leader 53 37: Clinton +16
Has the best chance of beating John McCain in November 48 43: Clinton +5
Shares your values 47 42: Clinton +5
Cares about the needs of people like you 47 43: Clinton +4
On only one variable, honesty and trustworthiness, does Obama lead Clinton (48 to 34).
A CBS/NYT poll released on 5/4/08 is being publicized by many news sources as showing a 12-pt. lead for Obama over Clinton, but this is among those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary.
However, Clinton actually leads Obama by 1 point when the question is asked of "registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats, regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary". This represents a net 5-point gain for Clinton since April 3.
Although the NY Times and other outlets are not fully reporting the poll's meaning, these results show that Obama has lost substantial support among people who have already voted for him.
In other good news for Clinton, the CBS/NYT pollster's report states:
For the first time since October 2007, more registered voters overall have a favorable impression of Clinton than an unfavorable one.and...
When asked who is "tough enough to make hard choices," Clinton gets 70%, McCain 71%, and Obama 58%.
The pollster writes:
Some perceptions of Obama's qualities have shifted in the last few weeks, and he has lost his edge over Clinton on a few past strengths. He is behind both Clinton and McCain on the question of who is tough enough to make the hard decisions a president must.Clinton has been campaigning as the "fighter" and the tough candidate who can get things done - and most voters agree.
However, more voters (52%) view Obama as the candidate who would unite the country; slightly fewer now say this about Clinton (though the gap between the two has shrunk in the last week).
Hillary clearly now has momentum.
UPDATE 5/5/08 8:18 PM PST: Ipsos Poll Shows Clinton Picking Up Steam-- Another national poll was released today, on the eve of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. The new Ipsos poll confirms the momentum for Clinton, giving her a 7-point (47:40) lead in a poll conducted over the weekend. This is a net 10-point gain for Clinton from Ipsos's last poll, which was conducted April 23-27. The pollster stated its survey question as follows:Among Democratic supporters across the country, 47% say that if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus was being held in their state today, they would choose Clinton.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 136 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
