Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again

by elrod, Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:02:45 PM EST

Sunday night's polling shows the race having not moved at all. Clinton gained one point in NC and trails Obama by 8 (48-40) and still trails by 2 in Indiana (44-42).

http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/clinton _obama_zogby/2008/05/04/93355.html

And in a reminder that this is, in fact, Newsmax, you get a blaring headline declaring that Iran could go nukular this year.

Anyway, it's Zogby so take it for what it's worth. Only one more night of polling left. Still lots of undecideds in both states. In NC, 13% of blacks are undecided and 11% of whites are undecided. That bodes well for Obama. In IN, 33% of those who changed their minds the last few weeks said Wright had something to do with it. I don't know if that's a lot or a little since Obama still leads. Clinton holds an "edge" among undecided voters but who knows how big that edge is.  Obama wins Indy, ties in Northern IN and loses Southern IN.  In NC he wins Charlotte, Greensboro and the Raliegh-Durham area, Clinton does well in the West. Nothing surprising.

26% of NC voters have already voted. We know from the state party that over 40% are black. If the Election Day margin is similar, Obama will win by double digits - even with only 33% of the white vote.

So here we are with one night left to poll. I'd imagine the bigger outfits will have their reports tomorrow.




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Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (2.00 / 1)

Can't wait until Tuesday.


by puma on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:04:22 PM EST

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (2.00 / 2)

Yeah.

Zogby in tank for Obama.  All poll outfits in tanks for Obama.  Teevees and talkboxes in tank for Obama.

Mongo no like Obama.  People who say good about Obama is liarz.


Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.
by fogiv on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:30:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (2.00 / 2)

Zogby calling a double digit win in CA and MA severely hurt Obama, as it jacked up his expectations, making his losses there look devastating.

If Zogby is trying to work for Obama, he's doing a crappy job; you don't help a candidate by making their polling numbers higher than they actually are.


by davisb on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:38:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MORE alchohol? (none / 0)

that explain your comments so far


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:02:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

oh do not be modest (none / 0)

just admit it, it will do your soul good. You got drunk, made some crappy comments. We forgive you buddy. :)


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:14:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

well I guess I just mean (none / 0)

crappy in a drunken way. Not anything particular vile.

I'll retract...lets say dorky comments :)


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:22:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

you are drunk, I am high... (none / 0)

we see what we want to see... right?


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:30:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

It's not "spin", it's common sense.  (Why would I be spinning for Zogby, anway?)

Say I had a credible polling outfit and I wanted to fake numbers to help Obama.  What would I do?  

I'd release a poll showing Hillary Clinton beating Obama by 65% C to 35% O, despite knowing that the spread is really 53% O to 47% Clinton.

Everyone would look to my poll as evidence of the uphill climb Obama has in that state, how he's up against insurmountable odds, blah blah blah.  Then, come election day, Obama wins by 6% points and the story is all "Barack Obama destroys expectations!!  Despite being 30 points down just last week in DavisB's very credible poll, he won an amazing and earth shattering victory!!!!!"

If Zogby was "biased toward Obama" and was faking numbers to help his favorite candidate this is what he'd do.

Explain to me how inflating a candidates support in the lead-up to a primary in any way helps that candidate?  It just makes them look bad when they don't perform to those inflated expectations.


by davisb on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:04:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Oh come on, don't be naive, inflating a candidates support energizes his supporters, and helps helps attract those who want to go with the winner.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:15:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

In my experience, a candidate being behind in polls does a lot more to energize their supporters than being far ahead.

Just look at any DailyKos comment thread in the lead-up to an Obama-friendly state, and you'll see about 3 dozens comments shouting "come on guys, don't get cocky!  Pretend we're 20 points behind!"

Also, having a state "in the bag" before voting even happens eventually depresses turnout for your candidate, as supporters are less motivated to go vote, assuming the candidate has already won.


by davisb on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:26:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Well I have had the opposite experience, but I'm certainly not going to do a my experience is better than yours argument. All I can say is when I've worked for a candidate down and out in the polls, the outlook in the office is generlly bleak, and less volunteers show up, and there are less resources all the way around. I respect the fact that you have found something different in losing campaigns, I just have never seen it.

By the way the concept of "work like your 20 points behind" is not exactly the same as being 20 points behind in actuality.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:36:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

I suppose you're right, and it's all a matter of degrees; ie being 30 points down (as in my hypothetical) does depress campaign enthusiasm, much more so than being 8 points down would.  The former is a hopeless situation, whereas the latter promotes a sense of "if I just place 50 more calls, maybe we can close that gap."

That said, we all saw how the Obama camp was able to point to one outlier poll showing Clinton ahead by 25 points in PA as a way to lower their expectations, raise hers, and provide an excuse for losing by 9, so on the whole, if I were Zogby and I wanted to fake things for Obama, I'd put out fake numbers showing Clinton ahead.


by davisb on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:40:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Msybe you should apply for a job with Zogby.:) In any event, good luck on Tuesday.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:44:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

I have no idea what this means or what you are saying.....

How did that one poll showing Obama ahead help Obama?  Obviously it's hard to fake polls to help your candidate, because if your numbers are wildly out of whack with 9 other pollsters, people are just going to dismiss you.

That said, remember how the Obama camp claimed PA was a a victory for them, since they closed what had been a "20+ point gap"?  Well only one outlier poll really showed that gap, but that outlier poll was enough as it gave the Obama camp something to point to to raise her expectations after the fact.  "She should have won by more than she did, just look at this one poll that had her winning by 25 points."

If a pollster wants to "help" a candidate by faking poll numbers, the best thing they can do is inflate the opposing candidate's expectations.  You do your candidate no favors at all by making it look like they have more support than they actually do.

Again, explain to me how inflating a candidates support in the lead-up to a primary in any way helps that candidate?


by davisb on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:23:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Still don't understand...

Yes, I do think Zogby showing Obama ahead in CA in the lead-up hurt Obama, as it helped Hillary beat the expectations (a part of which Zogby played in setting).

I'm saying I don't believe Zogby is "biased toward Obama" or putting out fake/unreliable numbers in support of Obama, because he has too often erred in raising Obama's expectations.


by davisb on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:43:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

And don't forget Zogby also called New Jersey for Obama. And Zogby had Lazio beating Hillary the day before the senate election in 2000.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:12:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Also Ballot boxes are in the tank for Obama.

And don't forget voters and caucus-goers... they're definitely in the tank for Obama.


by Tatan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:47:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

I completely agree that Zogby sucks this cycle, but I don't think Zogby is pro-Obama either.

Just FYI:  I wasn't picking on you personally, just poking a little fun at most HRC supporters around these parts who discount out of hand any positive light for the Obama campaign.

;)


Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.
by fogiv on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:26:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Polling AA voters is difficult, because many AA's especially older voters value their indi status and will report as undecideds until the last day.  However, those voters always break at the same rate as the broader community.  At least that is my experience in races in Texas, PA, Jersey, and DC


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:06:36 PM EST

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Welcome back Cardboard. How do you feel the sentiments are in black churches in NC based on your campaigning?


by Sandeep on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:49:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Well I cut short the campaigning in order to make an election conference this weekend back in Princeton... But the Churches seems better organized in NC than they did in PA.  The campaign has had more time there with a more excited base.

I have to take care of getting some papers out here too, sadly - but I guess we have to mind our actual lives occasionally.   I've just agreed to join the party for the next 5 months in order to help develop and implement a plan to reach out to swing religious voters.  So I'm going to try to post a lot more diaries on religious voters - i think younger evangelicals will be this year's big swing voter.  They, and a increase in AA evangelicals of 9% in OH, are what put Bush over the top in 04.  And, polling suggest Obama is in a much stronger place to win them over than McCain.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:01:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Welcome back Cardboard. How do you feel the sentiments are in black churches in NC based on what has happened in last one week?


by Sandeep on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:00:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

On what happened last week.  I would say no change... some folks were upset with the media.  I have heard no real negative comments about Obama, though.

We, for one, wanted to invite Wright to speak.  And are now no longer planning on that until post-election.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:03:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Zogby is not really a credible poster .

NC is going to be closer than 8 points in my opinion.

Both campaigns are going back there on Monday unscheduled which tells me its a lot closer.

By the way there is a possibility H. Schuler would endorse her tomorrow in NC .

In terms of Indiana , I bet by tomorrow if SUSA shows her ahead , Zogby would follow .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:06:46 PM EST

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Schuler said he will vote the way his district goes...so I'm doubtful we'll see an endorsement.  He  didn't, from folks I know who are with his campaign, want to make a choice...so this is the best way to avoid a choice.

I think NC will be over a 10 point win.  The pollsters are underpolling AA voters.


Matthew25Network.com
by cardboard 1 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:08:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Well here in Tennessee I am hearing from her supporters that he is likely to endorse her tomorrow.

Maybe its part of the reason she headed back there tonight .

We shall see.

If you read the newsmax , zogby is already hedging with the indiana results.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:12:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

They're heading back to NC because the state has 115 delegates at stake compared to 72 for Indiana.

As I said the other day, Clinton needs to win NC to have a chance to sway superdelegates to her side. She knows the slow death will continue if she loses in NC. She's hoping to either win or make it so close that she limits the delegate margin and makes the case to superdelegates that Obama has collapsed.

Unfortunately for her, national tracking polls show Obama rebounding from last week and not collapsing. The CBS poll showed the same. If this election were last Tuesday, she could have won NC. Maybe.


by elrod on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:22:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

What exactly does the national polls have to do with NC and IN by the way ?

I am scratching my head on the one .

Wasn't he leading substantially in national polls before PA , TX and OH , its not a correlation in my opinion.

I would suggest you don't hang your hat on any national poll.

Lets not distract from what the essence of my post is , which is the prospect of an endorsement by Schuler tomorrow.

I heard he is no longer going to hedge but come out outright and endorse her.

Thats it , we can wait and see.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:28:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

National polls don't always correlate with local polling unless there is an issue that's received national exposure. Rev. Wright and the gas tax holiday were nationally covered events and affect polling both at the local and the national level.


by elrod on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:39:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

I think NC is going to be very very close, from everything I've looked at today, and Indiana, well, if undecideds go to her as they have been may be a Pennsylvania-like margin.  I'm not optimistic from my side of the fence.


by mady on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:19:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

If Hillary keeps it in single digits in NC, and wins Indy, it is going to be a big night for her. It keeps the campaign going. If she loses both, I don't think it makes much sense to go any further


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:19:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (2.00 / 1)

This is Zogby, Mr. Obama +15 in California and what not, I do not trust him and he has lost all credibility, of any that he had left.

I am sure that President Kerry would agree


by American1989 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:06:48 PM EST

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Maybe, but in California I think the early voting messed them up. Lots of Hispanics had voted early for HRC. In NC I suspect the reverse will be the case - with lots more AAs voting early than they've accounted for. However we'll know for sure very shortly.


by Becky G on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:14:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

And what messed Zogby up in Massachusetts and New Jersey? What were the excuses in those states?


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:20:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

As far as I'm concerned, no polling is credible after New Hampshire. Everybody got fooled.


by Falsehood on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:32:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

REPEAT DIARY.  YOU POSTED THIS EARLIER TODAY.


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:10:18 PM EST

These are actually the new numbers (none / 0)

Just one more day of polling.


by puma on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:12:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

No I did not. That was YESTERDAY's polling. The numbers from late, late last night are virtually identical to those of tonight. It looks like a repeat but it is new.


by elrod on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:12:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

yeah, if I were you (2.00 / 2)

I would not talk about repeat diaries.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:13:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: yeah, if I were you (2.00 / 1)

No joke.


Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.
by fogiv on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:32:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Excuse me?  How can you of all people say this?  I don't see you posting this in other diaries.


by Bobby Obama on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:41:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Hedging (none / 0)

Zogby is hedging again, waiting for SUSA's numbers to help manipulate his numbers. When he sees all the polls on Monday he will re-adjust his for his final numbers on Monday night.


by meliou2 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:28:05 PM EST

Oh (none / 0)

Zogby forgot make up some new numbers to replace yesterday's made up numbers. Lets just say, I am not suprized.
by linc on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:32:03 PM EST

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

OBAMA WINS CALIFORNIA
HELLO, PRESIDENT KERRY
OBAMA WINS TEXAS
_

In all seriousness, I have to take this guy with a grain of salt. He was good on PA but if he's good on these two races maybe he gets a little cred back. True test comes in November. Till then, the only outfit I really trust is SUSA, they have really nice polling at the state/local level. I'll be interested to see their NC and Indiana numbers (I assume they'll have some) tommorrow.


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:35:33 PM EST

Obama won Texas (none / 0)


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:18:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama won Texas (none / 0)

How did I know that was coming?

My metric is the "will of the people", which Hillary won by quite a few votes.


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:21:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I see (none / 0)

in that case you should push to disavow usage of super delegates. Because each SD vote is like ~ 13,000 people right now. Not will of the people at all.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:29:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

He really wasn't that good in Pa., as he had Obama +2 points on his Saturday poll before the election. On Sunday, he suddenly had Hillary with a +15 day, and then on Monday, he noted a move to Obama as Hillary was only +5 for that day, according to Zogby. His 2 day tracking numbers thus called it +10 for Hillary, but in reality Zogby was set up to explain any result.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:26:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Zogby has actually been excellent post Feb. 5 so thats good for Indiana for Obama.


by Bobby Obama on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:42:14 PM EST

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Sorry, but how does one know that 26% of voters have voted?
Since it's a semi-open primary there's no way of knowing the final number of voters.
Also, how does one know that 40% are African American?
When I last lived in NC, the race of the voter had long been eliminated from voter registrations.
by johnnygunn on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:49:00 PM EST

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Voting Rights Act requires them to keep track of the race of voters.

The percent of all voters showing up early is an estimation, obviously. They poll everybody, find who is a likely voter, and ask how many already voted.


by elrod on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:59:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

In SUSA's last poll, they found that only 2% had early voted at that time. It's possible that a lot have voted since, but that's an awfully big jump.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:28:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Also, only about a third of NC counties are required to report under the Voting Rights Act - the third with the highest proportion of African Americans.

How does the state come up with a statewide estimate?


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:31:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Are you sure that's true for a statewide primary?

Not sure where these numbers come from though:

http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/ana lysis-of-early-voters-in-north.html


by elrod on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:54:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

I lived and voted in Orange and Wake Counties.
My parents lived in Forsyth County.
Never recall any check-off for race.

(I cannot imagine the registrar deciding on first glance.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Righ ts_Act


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:09:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

Here:

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR /VR%20Stats/vr_stats_results.asp?EC=05-0 3-2008

African American - 20.6%
Democrat - 45.3%
Independent - 21.4%
Republican - 33.3%

If 80% of African American voters are registered Democrats, then they make up 36.4% of registered Dems.  If the turnout of Independents is 75% of that of the Dems - i.e. 40% of registered Dems vote, 30% of registered Indies, or 60%/45%, whatever - and you assume that 95% of African Americans are either Dems or Indies, then African Americans will make up 31.9% of the primary vote.

That assumes an equal turnout of racial groups.  If unequal, then all bets are off.  But the above is a baseline.


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:25:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

If African Americans are 33% of the primary electorate and vote 90% for Obama and whites are 66% of the primary electorate and vote 66% for Clinton, then Obama will beat Clinton 52% to 48%.


by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:30:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (2.00 / 1)

Ha, not to get too nerdy, but its actually 52.5 to 47.5


by reggie23 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:58:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (2.00 / 1)

Actually -
52.222222222222% to
47.777777777777% -
But it's an estimate, anyhoo.
by johnnygunn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:42:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby NC/IN - Steady once again (none / 0)

52.53 to 47.47, but i digress....


by reggie23 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:46:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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