While the RCP 8-poll average shows the North Carolina primary within single digits, Public Policy Polling blog cautions poll watchers not to forget the lesson we learned from the primary results in NC's surrounding states of South Carolina, Virginia and Georgia.
In all three cases Obama won by double digits more than the average preelection poll suggested, and no one got within seven points of the correct margin in any of the states.
I've recreated PPP's handy chart below:
| State | Final RCP Ave. | Actual Tally | Closest Poll |
| South Carolina | Obama +12 | Obama +28 | Obama +20 (PPP) |
| Virginia | Obama +18 | Obama +29 | Obama +22 (SUSA) |
| Georgia | Obama +18 | Obama +36 | Obama +22 (Strategic Vision) |
The reason these trends should be instructive in predicting Tuesday's result is that, as PPP (a North Carolina outfit) puts it, NC is "relatively similar demographically to them - a large black population, plenty of college educated liberals, etc." Now certainly the landscape has shifted toward Hillary Clinton in recent weeks and pollsters are now far more likely to be familiar with the turnout tendencies of certain demographics than they were 2 months ago, but personally I'm not so sure we won't see a similar overperformance by Obama on Tuesday. Of course, if we don't and Hillary is able to keep him to single digits as the polls suggest, it should not be forgotten what a remarkable underperformance (of 20+ points) that would represent for Obama compared to how he did among similar electorates just 2 months before.
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