Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee Members likely To Vote Her Way

over at TPM:

In a further sign that the Clinton camp is setting low expectations for the Rules Committee meeting tomorrow, Harold Ickes is now warning that not all of the Clinton-backing committee members -- representing a plurality, but not a majority -- might not vote for the campaign's position of seating all the Florida and Michigan primary delegates.

As for himself, Ickes humorously told the Wall St. Journal that he could "possibly" vote against Hillary's interests, "but it's highly unlikely."

If her own supporters on the committee are not promised to vote her way, why would she take it to the floor, what people seem to forget is these people are Democrats first, Hillary supporters second.

they have to deal with 1 question that Hillary and her campaign and her supporters don't care about

If FL/MI aren't punished what will stop this from happening in 2012?

She and her supporters can say who cares, but they care, they are the ones who would have to deal with it, and as is quickly becoming the CW, MI and FL will see some sort of punishment.

will she take it to the floor? No, if her own people won't even vote the way she wants and needs here, why would things change in August? FL and MI will have a penalty.



Display:


Re: Ickes: Not All Pro- (2.00 / 2)

If FL/MI aren't punished what will stop this from happening in 2012?

My answer is: who cares?

It seems to be commonly accepted that accepted "truth" is that we don't want to have primaries early. I've heard the sycophant Brazile on CNN a number of times say that they made their FL/MI decision to keep NH and IA from going before Christmas, and everyone else on the panel has invariably nodded gravely. Like having primaries early is a deadly sin that is commonly accepted by everyone as something THAT.MUST.NOT.HAPPEN.

I would rather the 2012 primary season start in May of 2010 than watch the DNC go through the sad, ironic spectacle of gnashing their teeth over whether or not to disenfranchise voters.


by arkansasdemocrat on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:11:59 AM EST

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro- (2.00 / 2)

Not me.

Earlier, front-loaded primaries mean we'll almost always get the default candidate, the most well-known.

Not for me, thank you.

I'm all for ending the IA/NH monopoly over the front of the calendar, but I am NOT all for chaos and 18 month-in-advance nominating contests.

The calendar should move back to February and the DNC needs to revise the calendar to devise a better system of diverse opinion in the early going.


by zonk on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:17:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

As an Iowan, I'm in agreement (2.00 / 1)

I was horrified by this season.  Early january was way too early for the first primary.

I'm all for a reasonable primary solution that has some type of rotation for which states get to be the early ones.  I would hazard to guess that most Iowans agree with me on this.  

Our political class is more attached to the early caucus, of course, because they appreciate the extra clout that the arrangement lends to them.  We would have to fight with them to get the politicians to cede some ground and give up this status.  I'm more than willing to engage in that fight if there is a fair and reasonable proposal at the national level.

I think it will be very difficult to convince iowa and new hampshire to give up first in the nation status and replace it with non-system where lots of states are jockeying to be first.

IMHO.


by GreenHills on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:27:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank G-d for Donna Brazile (none / 0)

Donna Brazile was one who lead the DNC's fight last August to strip FL and MI of their entire delegations.  She was right then, and deserves enormous credit for being right.

I say this as someone who has lived in big states (VA, PA, MA) all but six months of my life (CT).  I wholehartedly agree with giving IA and NH first-in-the-nation status.


by Brad G on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:30:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro- (none / 0)

Sour grapes.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:18:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro- (2.00 / 1)

I care.  Clinton keeps talking about how the earlier primaries were going in June, but the truth is that those primaries also started later and weren't so front loaded with states trying to get more power for themselves.

Primaries shouldn't be a contest based on name recognition going in, it is supposed to be able to look at the candidates and vote on their relative merits.  This is why we usually start with some smaller states so that candidates that might be less well known and might have less cash in the beginning have a chance to make their case.

If you don't punish these two big dawgs, the even bigger dawgs are gonna start hopscotching up.


accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking
by Sychotic1 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:23:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Which will cause more damage (none / 0)

I'm actually torn as to which would cause more damage.  If they seat the delegations in full then Clinton has no argument left.  

I'd rather risk states trying to jump order in 2016 than have Clinton questioning the legitimacy of Obama for the next three months.


John McCain - That third Bush term you always dreamed of.
by map2 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:25:30 AM EST

Re: Which will cause more damage (none / 0)

me I don't care what they decide, but I understand the DNC's position, they are responsible for the next primary, and NO they don't want it to start on Janurary 22, 2009.

they have to maintain control of the party and also,

what happens the next time they sanction a state, and the candidates campaign there saying screw the DNC you are just going to seat them anyways, do we really want another Florida in 2000 or another 2008 primaries?

if they didn't get a penalty then we would all know that if the DNC sanctioned a state again they wouldn't mean it and the candidates would know it too, and the one who was losing would do exactly what Hillary did here.

anyone doubt this?


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:29:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee Members l (2.00 / 1)

"If FL/MI aren't punished what will stop this from happening in 2012?"

Nothing, and that's terrific.

We'll put an end to the nonsense of the DNC interfering with what is a state's decision, and the end to the era of favoritism.


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:29:03 AM EST

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee Members l (2.00 / 1)

says the supporter of the DLC candidate,

exactly what is the DLC for again? what state are they for? You support a candidate who believes in a strong central Elite leadership for the entire party.


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:32:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee Members l (2.00 / 1)

So let's get this clear -

The DNC should have no role in dictating how and when the states select their delegates?


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:01:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerome..please step back..clear your head and.... (2.00 / 1)

rethink what you are saying...first of all there are reasons for the rules in the first place...have you even investigated why the states are kept from voting early and the consequences of not having some controls on the schedule would mean?

Candidates with less finances could not even compete and gain any traction...why? Because it cost more to campaign in big states, also allowing big states to jump way up would mean candidates with big name recognition and or big corporate sponsors would have a completely unfair advantage in winning.  using the early state strategy it is more cost efficient to introduce the nation to the candidates and allow the other states to learn about their positions and policies before the huge delegate rich states weigh in and the early states also represent a good mix of the voters throughout the country.  Are you really proposing that anarchy is a good structure and rule of thumb to follow?


by netgui68 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:10:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee Members l (2.00 / 1)

It's not solely a state's decision.  They're deciding the candidate for a private political party, and so the DNC has a right to being involved in the formation of the schedule.  In any event, maybe you should outline what you see happening in a free market environment and why that would be a good thing.  I myself don't particularly look forward to a day when primaries are held over the holidays in the year before the GE.


by rfahey22 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:10:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerome Armstrong: for anarchy? (2.00 / 1)

I don't get it.  What's to be gained by letting states constantly vote for earlier and earlier primaries?  Hasn't this primary season been too long?


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:37:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee Members l (2.00 / 0)

I think the signals are there (from HRC campaign), that she will appeal it to the convention - this will keep her in the race until August.


by nikkid on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:29:19 AM EST

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee Members l (none / 0)

riiigghhhtttt... mind pointing these signals out?

her RBC supporters who might not vote how she wants? Terry saying its over in June? Howard WOlfson saying its over in June?

hell all the supers saying we will endorse and end it in June, she can go to the convention all she wants but whats the point if the supes say do that and we vote against you?


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:34:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee Members l (none / 0)

'Cos she wants to stick it in our craw is why... I don't know...  honestly, why they stayed in after WI is still beyond me...


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:41:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We should keep in mind (none / 0)

that her campaign, and even her husband, are saying she will do the right thing...heck, she even says it publicly.  Privately she is telling her supporters that she will not give up and will take it to the convention.  That's why the 'in' group of devoted Hillary supporters are on a different page than everyone else.

The question is which is true.  It's hard to say.  Logic tells me she will drop out in June but then this is a woman who started preparing for this WH bid in 2000.  Will she ever accept that she has no chance to win?  Don't know.


No Way, No How, No McCain!
by GFORD on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:50:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If she stays in the race, ... (2.00 / 1)

... there's not going to be enough money for a convention.  The DNC is already so far behind schedule in raising funds for the convention, and not having a presumptive nominee only exacerbates the situation.


by Brad G on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:32:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Could that be because people (none / 0)

Have been stopping their donations in droves because of what they have been doing to Clinton?

Ya think?


by splashy on Fri May 30, 2008 at 06:05:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Fuck Iowa and New Hampshire (2.00 / 1)

What gives these states with 9 electoral votes the right to block other states? Why is an inordinate amount of time and money spent on the voters of these two relatively small rural states. This retail politics made sense when the US had 25 million people and no electronic media. Today it is an anachronism. States should have the right to hold primaries whenever they see fit. A national primary would solve this asinine situation.


by hypopg on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:45:35 AM EST

Here's how I heard it. (2.00 / 1)

Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are considered to be a good cross-section of the electorate.  The idea was to put them up front to get an idea how the various candidates will do in these demographics.

Selection of a nominee is an internal party function rather than a contest between two parties for political office.  The reason the party holds primaries at all is to get an idea of which potential nominee is more favorable to the party at large.  Once that has been determined, the party starts promoting itself, via the candidate, to the general electorate as the best choice for the country.

Since the primary season was so long and so heavily publicized this time, it's easy to forget it's just a party function not an election.


No Way, No How, No McCain!
by GFORD on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:00:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fuck Iowa and New Hampshire (2.00 / 1)

I was calling for an end to the IA/NH duopoly long before this year. I'm glad so many others also seem to now be on board. But I expect that once it's no longer an issue for Hillary to exploit, many of them will stop caring once again.

As for this year, it's too late to change the rules that the nomination process was conducted under and Hillary has made herself look like she'll cheat to win by trying to change them to her advantage.


Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.
by Freespeechzone on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:01:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Well........ (none / 0)

everyone else seemed to approve of our choices....


by IowaMike on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:43:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well........ (2.00 / 1)

Even as someone who agrees with your choices, the problem is that that can be a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy (c.f. Kerry, who emerged as electable because the early states, uh, elected him. Different early states, quite possibly a different emergent "electable" candidate.)


by Exhausted Pennsylvanian on Fri May 30, 2008 at 12:06:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well........ (none / 0)

being electable, means winning elections. You have to win nominations to win elections. If you can't win nominations you are therefore unelectable by default.

And I say that as an Edwards guy.


by IowaMike on Fri May 30, 2008 at 12:09:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fuck Iowa and New Hampshire (none / 0)

There is something to be said for a cross section of the country starting it all out, and for small retail states. Namely, the candidates at the beginning of the campaign have to stand in front of all those non-Internet people  in real town halls and street encounters and answer questions rather than reading from teleprompters and cards. They have to show they can actually talk to real conventional human beings respectfully. They have to get the opportunity to be caught doing truly stupid things and dealing with it. Being the rabbit in the race without the entire world at stake makes the candidates expose themselves so others can see them before they vote. Not a bad thing.


by Christy1947 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 01:56:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee (none / 0)

So, did Ickes bother to explain his hypocrisy on this issue?  What changed in the last few months that seating the states is now a good idea?  I'm for seating them in some capacity, but then, I was never in favor of stripping all of their delegates, either.


by rfahey22 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:52:05 AM EST

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee (none / 0)

Question of interest. What happens at DRB meeting if the two states are willing to make a compromise  that bows in favor of the Rules sufficient to satisfy the Roolz folks, and that Obama accepts, but Hillary doesn't? That's sort of what I'm hearing might happen there. If the states are willing to live with the compromise, what should happen after that?


by Christy1947 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 01:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Knowing Hillary, this makes sense. (none / 0)

Hillary's public position is "Seat all the delegates!" But if it were to happen she would lose her excuse to sow rancor and division. So it wouldn't be surprising at all if she asked some of her people on the committee to support the 1/2 vote position.


Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.
by Freespeechzone on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:54:23 AM EST

Re: Ickes: Not All Pro-Hillary Committee Members l (2.00 / 2)

If there is a fair system that treats all states equally (for example, through a series of rotating regional primaries, with each region taking turns in going first), then I'm sure there would be a broad consensus for strictly enforcing a timeline.

However, when two states are allowed to dominate the nominating process election after election after election, everybody can see it's a sham and thus doesn't deserve respect or enforcement.


by markjay on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:11:21 AM EST

Re: National primaries are a bad idea. (2.00 / 1)

The give great advantage to a candidate with deep pockets and huge name-recognition as television and money dominate.  I want a candidate like Chris Dodd, Mike Huckabee, or Joe Biden to have the ability to connect with the voters and topple the front-runner.  That's why we have small states such as IA and NH go first.


by Brad G on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:35:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

She's Going to the Convention (none / 0)

Screwing around with Michigan and Florida just gives her the moral justification to do so.  She will be the Al Gore of 2008, except that she won't just throw in the towel after the Supreme Court... er I mean RBC stops counting the votes in Florida.  

If the party is so hellbent on anointing their favorite that they would nuke two whole states, they've gone too far.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:33:33 AM EST

Re: She's Going to the Convention (none / 0)

Don't worry, they'll probably come up with a way of giving Michigan the compromise that all of the state party leaders want, some form of 69/59 and Florida will get the same 50% haircut that the Republicans gave.  We'll call it a day and MI and FL will be happy.  

I'd like to hear the moral argument that says that Clinton should get 80% of MI's delegates when the leaders of MI don't want that.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:48:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She's Going to the Convention (none / 0)

She wouldn't necessarily.  Uncommitted is an officially recognized status per the DNC rules.  The delegates would be free to endorse whomever they wanted.  Uncommitted got some votes even in recent primaries, I think North Carolina.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I hope he wasn't kidding (none / 0)

I mean, Ickes voted in favor of the sanctions in the first place.  If he tries to seat them fully (which apparently he has no legal authority to do), he'll basically be saying that he's a shameless opportunist.

How do we trust people like that?


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:42:01 AM EST


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