Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota

by Jonathan Singer, Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:32:47 PM EST

Last month, a lot of folks became worried when they saw that freshman Republican Senator Norm Coleman of Minnesota had jumped to a 7-point lead over his Democratic challenger Al Franken. One month later, however, a survey from the same pollster that Coleman moving upward and Franken moving downward shows a statistically tied race. Here's Rasmussen Reports:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Minnesota shows Senator Norm Coleman (R) attracting 47% of the vote while challenger Al Franken earns 45% support.

A month ago, Coleman was ahead 50% to 43%. Rasmussen Reports has polled this race five times and Coleman has had at least a modest edge four times (including the last three). However, the Senator has reached the 50% level of support just once in those five polls. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is generally considered vulnerable.

[...]

Coleman earns 91% support from Republican voters while Franken gets the vote from 76% of Democrats. Those figures are little changed from a month ago. However, Coleman's lead among unaffiliated voters--down to nine percentage points--has been cut in half over the past month. Franken benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Minnesota.

There's a lot in these numbers that should have the GOP worried. To begin, Franken has not yet seen the Democratic base coalesce around him -- something that he has a relatively long time to accomplish before election day.

But more fundamentally, if the Coleman isn't able to take a lead and hold it at a time when Franken has sustained a whole lot of hits in the media, is he ever going to be able to? Had some of the stories that the right wing has trumpeted in recent weeks come up for the first time in the fall rather than in the spring, it might have been difficult for Franken to rebound. However, at least according to Rasmussen polling, Franken is already back well within striking distance.

There remains a whole lot of work to be done in this race. But at this point, with Franken still within the margin of error of Coleman, the Republicans can't be too pleased.




Tags: MN-Sen, Norm Coleman, Al Franken, Senate 2008, Minnesota (all tags)

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This is looking a heck of a lot better (none / 0)

Franken got pilloried in the Star Tribune about his tax issues.  He is also taking hits from almost all of the prominent democrats in MN (Tim Walz, Amy K. Keith E.)  If he has Coleman to a 2 point race then Franken has a great shot to be the Jr. Senator of MN.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:37:44 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (2.00 / 1)

Franken is being attacked by other establishment democrats who are afraid of the people powered candidate... that is never a good thing, but, just like with us overpowering the DLC, I think we still can overcome this unfortunate situation.


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:38:31 PM EST

MN question (none / 0)

This is an honest question - do you really think that Walz, Klobuchar, and Ellison are establishment Democrats?

It's been a while since I lived in Minnesota, but they have all been recently elected to their prospective offices, and all three of them have been getting pretty decent ratings from some of the grassroots organizations I'm familiar with.

I did find it odd that they were blatantly criticizing Franken - what's up with that?


by emptythreatsfarm on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:46:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MN question (none / 0)

Maybe they're afraid he'll steal their thunder in congress.


by 08AMA on Sat May 31, 2008 at 12:01:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MN question (none / 0)

Constituent heat.


by Mullibok on Sat May 31, 2008 at 12:29:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (2.00 / 1)

Stoller had a post on this earlier today over at his new digs .. it almost sounds like some establishment Dems want to see him lose .. but I think Al will pull through


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:41:17 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (none / 0)

"it almost sounds like some establishment Dems want to see him lose .. "

They probably didn't think much of Wellstone either. Their approbation is a good thing.


Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.
by Freespeechzone on Sat May 31, 2008 at 02:36:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (none / 0)

I haven't been following it closely, but that attack on Franken for his satirical piece in Playboy seemed like a fairly serious attack.  Does anyone in Minnesota have a sense of how that issue is playing out?  


by ProfessorReo on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:50:34 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (none / 0)

Hard to say. It feels like a big problem right now, but it's hard to say how it will feel in 5 months. It's really easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment. Still, it does make me worry. If this Senate race doesn't turn into a referendum on Republicans, then Franken will probably lose, and right now it doesn't feel like that's where it's going.


by Mullibok on Sat May 31, 2008 at 12:31:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Pre-emptive attack (none / 0)

Perhaps the attack on Franken was a pre-emptive attack to foreclose on any last-minute sheananigans Coleman might try, since last-minute developments helped him so much the last time he ran.


I proudly support Barack Obama for President!
by Zeitgeist9000 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:57:08 PM EST

Re: Pre-emptive attack (none / 0)

What effect would Ventura have on this race?  I recall him making some rumblings about getting in the race.


by Blazers Edge on Sat May 31, 2008 at 12:06:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ventura's Impact (none / 0)

Ventura is trying to sell a book and will not run for the Senate seat, but he is having an impact on the race.

Our former 'celebrity' governor reminds Minnesotans of those awful years where we were embarassed by his XFL gig and WWF referee fling, among other feather boa moods.

Minnesota will not elect another 'celebrity' politician - PERIOD.

Obama is up 20pts vs McCain in the polls and the last weeks' Star Tribune poll shows Coleman ahead of Franken by 7pts.  

There will be no rally behind Franken in the fall. All Democrats in Minnesota will run away from Franken and he will have a reverse coattails that will diminish Obama's victory margin.

The DFL is one stupid political party for putting Franken up.  ANY Democrat, other than Franken, could have beaten Coleman this year, of all years. We blew it.


by minnehot1 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 12:24:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Cheer up, Cassandra! (none / 0)


Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.
by Freespeechzone on Sat May 31, 2008 at 02:31:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (none / 0)

With Obama as the nominee, Coleman is toast. Just go back and dust off the old ads where Coleman is playing footsie with Bush and then the even older ones where Coleman is endorsing Wellstone.

Coleman is the biggest empty suit hack the Republicans have since George Allen was macaca'd out of the 2006 Senate race. That tax stuff against Franken was crap and politicking on stupid just ain't gonna cut it this election.

Franken by 10 points.


by wengler on Sat May 31, 2008 at 12:36:20 AM EST

I hope Al wins. (none / 0)

He's been promoting progressive ideals for many years.  Time for him to get a chance to implement some of them.


No Way, No How, No McCain!
by GFORD on Sat May 31, 2008 at 12:54:56 AM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (none / 0)

Last month, a lot of folks became worried when they saw that freshman Republican Senator Norm Coleman of Minnesota had jumped to a 7-point lead over his Democratic challenger Al Franken.

I can only pity people who worry about polls 6 months or more before an election.  

I can laugh at people who feel smug about polls 6 months or more before an election.

I can only have contempt for people who sell a candidate based on polls 6 months or more before an election.


Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.
by Freespeechzone on Sat May 31, 2008 at 02:14:02 AM EST

Donate to Al (none / 0)

He's a worthy candidate.  His books are intelligently written.

And pick up one of his t-shirts too; they're really nice.

This is a race that can be won.


by katmandu1 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 08:35:08 AM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (none / 0)

The Minnesota Race will be too close to call. This will be an all nighter race.

Minnesota is a blue state. It has a strong Anti War, Economic populist constituency.


by nkpolitics on Sat May 31, 2008 at 10:02:42 AM EST

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (none / 0)

The Coleman vs. Franken race will not be close. It will be a blowout for Coleman.

The latest Franken dustup is his Playboy article that can best be described as a story promoting porn and demeaning of women.  The politically correct and left wing DFL party has lost it and the Democrats are fracturing.

Anyone who suggests Franken stands any chance of winning in Minnesota simply don't know what they are talking about.

This race is over before it began.


by minnehot1 on Sat May 31, 2008 at 12:12:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (none / 0)

The Coleman victory in 2002 was a narrow win and a fluke due to Wellstone's tragic death, Democrats not behaving themselves at Wellstones memorial service, Bush's popularity right after 9-11 and right before he decided to go to war.
2008 is going to be a strong year for the Democrats due to the unpopular Iraq war, Unpopularity of George W Bush.
Looking at the 2006 MN Governors race- the Pawlenty victory over Hatch was narrow.

Norm Coleman would loose had Betty McCollum,Mike Ciresi,Mayor R.T Ryback,Chris Coleman been the Democratic nominee instead of Al Franken.

Because Al Franken is the nominee- Norm Coleman could win but a Narrow margin.

This race is similar to the 1994 Virginia US Senate Race between Chuck Robb and Ollie North. Robb was the unpopular incumbent tarnished by a Sex Scandal and Bill Clinton and Ollie North a controversial Challenger tied to the Iran Contra Scandal.


by nkpolitics on Sat May 31, 2008 at 12:28:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen: Back to a Tie in Minnesota (none / 0)

This poll is bad news for Coleman and good news for Franken, I suppose, but I doubt that it means anything at all.  The MN state endorsing convention is this Saturday and both Franken and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer have promised to withdraw if the other one gets endorsed.  As we get closer and closer, it looks like a very real possibility that Jack might get the endorsement and Franken would then back him.  Why in the world, then would Rasmussen not even ask voters about Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer?  It is either the height of presumption or totally uninformed or an actual attempt to determine who gets endorsed by ignoring the other major contender.  Such a poll has no scientific validity at all.


by Peaceguy on Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 04:09:59 PM EST


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