Jerome, turn WI from Red to Blue for Obama, and it's now 300 - 238. While Hillary is ahead using current polling (ignoring lots of arguments over how she would be doing if she were front-runner), it's hard to argue that Barack is not electable.
Let me start with the link.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=59d53a82-4258-4988-be6a-3e0e67 ecf4df
A few things I noticed:
1) Obama is still only winning blacks 77/23. Since they are only 5% of the poll, it doesn't make much difference, but SurveyUSA had similar results in MI. I expect Barack to ultimately win 90/10 at least.
2) Split by party affiliation is encouraging. R is 89/10/2 (30% of total), D is 78/9/13 (36% of total), and Independents are 53/36/11 (29% of total) for Barack. Notice that there are far more undecideds in D and I then there are in R. This is an ongoing issue right now and a big reason that Barack supporters expect his polling to improve.
3) Barack wins whites 46/43, Males 49/45, and Females 47/39.
4) No age breakdowns to provide. I am under the impression that WI is a very young state.
Feel free to look this over farther to see other cross tabs of interest to you. What jumps out at me, though, without being an expert on WI demographics, is that this poll does not seem biased towards Obama. You have to feel pretty good about his chances to win her.
I would also mention to folks that both Gallup and Rasmussen show improvements for Obama today. While these polls meander back and forth every day, fact is over the long haul they show the race very competitive. While Hillary still appears slightly ahead overall in polling vs. McCain, two facts are hard to ignore:
1) She is losing substantially in polling Clinton vs. Obama.
2) She is only a small amount ahead of Obama when compared to McCain. All of us can find examples to put our candidate in a more favorable light by cherry picking polls, but at the end of the day, Clinton seems ahead in a close call.
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