Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA)

Jerome, turn WI from Red to Blue for Obama, and it's now 300 - 238.  While Hillary is ahead using current polling (ignoring lots of arguments over how she would be doing if she were front-runner), it's hard to argue that Barack is not electable.

Let me start with the link.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=59d53a82-4258-4988-be6a-3e0e67 ecf4df

A few things I noticed:

1)  Obama is still only winning blacks 77/23.  Since they are only 5% of the poll, it doesn't make much difference, but SurveyUSA had similar results in MI.  I expect Barack to ultimately win 90/10 at least.

2)  Split by party affiliation is encouraging.  R is 89/10/2 (30% of total), D is 78/9/13 (36% of total), and Independents are 53/36/11 (29% of total) for Barack.  Notice that there are far more undecideds in D and I then there are in R.  This is an ongoing issue right now and a big reason that Barack supporters expect his polling to improve.

3)  Barack wins whites 46/43, Males 49/45, and Females 47/39.

4)  No age breakdowns to provide.  I am under the impression that WI is a very young state.

Feel free to look this over farther to see other cross tabs of interest to you.  What jumps out at me, though, without being an expert on WI demographics, is that this poll does not seem biased towards Obama.  You have to feel pretty good about his chances to win her.

I would also mention to folks that both Gallup and Rasmussen show improvements for Obama today.  While these polls meander back and forth every day, fact is over the long haul they show the race very competitive.  While Hillary still appears slightly ahead overall in polling vs. McCain, two facts are hard to ignore:

1)  She is losing substantially in polling Clinton vs. Obama.

2)  She is only a small amount ahead of Obama when compared to McCain.  All of us can find examples to put our candidate in a more favorable light by cherry picking polls, but at the end of the day, Clinton seems ahead in a close call.



Display:


Re: Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA) (2.00 / 1)

He is going to win over 90% of all the Black population. I reckon.


Obama/Warner 2008
by MissVA on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:44:31 PM EST

Re: Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA) (none / 0)

Hey, what happened to your post on this issue?


John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way
by bosdcla14 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:46:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA) (none / 0)

I had to delete as they were copyright issues on my side. I do apologize.


Obama/Warner 2008
by MissVA on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:50:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA) (none / 0)

Ahh.  No problem.  


John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way
by bosdcla14 on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:53:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA) (none / 0)

90 percent of the black vote in Wisconsin?


New Mexico politics from the local perspective.
by fbihop on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:52:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sure (none / 0)

90% of 5% is still 90%


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:54:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I can't get enough of it (2.00 / 1)

Obama ran a pro campaign in Wisconsin; it really was the high point of the primary after Iowa.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:44:47 PM EST

Re: Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA) (2.00 / 1)

It's been a solid week.


Obama/Warner 2008
by MissVA on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:44:54 PM EST

Re: Obama/Warner (none / 0)

I am actually surprised there is not more buzz about Warner as VP.  He is hugely popular in VA (as you know), and he recently made very clear that he wants it.  I am happy to have him if that's Obama's choice.


by sasatlanta on Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:13:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA) (none / 0)

It already shows up as Blue on the map I see and says 300.

Since this diary is somewhat redundant now, I propose we just quote 300.

Children, gather round! No retreat, no surrender; that is Spartan law. And by Spartan law we will stand and fight... and die. A new age has begun. An age of freedom, and all will know, that 300 Spartans gave their last breath to defend it!


by libertyleft on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:45:07 PM EST

THIS. IS. OBAMAAAAAAA! (2.00 / 1)


by JJE on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:47:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

SUSA always undercounts blacks (none / 0)

that's why they were (and are) so wrong in NC.


by JJE on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:47:24 PM EST

Re: SUSA always undercounts blacks (none / 0)

are they wrong about wisconsin


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:49:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA always undercounts blacks (2.00 / 1)

Yes, they are - he should be up by more.


by Lawyerish on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:51:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA always undercounts blacks (none / 0)

Are you saying SurveyUSA is distorting the Black results somehow?  I am guessing you are not implying dishonesty, so my honest question is what (or how) is SurverUSA undercounting Blacks?


by sasatlanta on Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:11:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA always undercounts blacks (2.00 / 1)

They have a habit of under-counting blacks in their surveys.  This is partly because Obama's presence in the race has brought out AA voters in record numbers, so it's really difficult for them to model how many are going to actually show up.

In NC they were way off on both the number of black voters, and the percentage who went for Obama....

I think that while many polls have shown Clinton winning somewhere around 20+% of the AA vote, many actual elections have shown her winning around 10%.  McCain will do worse.  So when I see the SUSA numbers being far off from that, it's hard to trust them.


by Lawyerish on Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:23:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA always undercounts blacks (2.00 / 1)

They aren't doing anything unethical.  Rather, they've been under-predicting voter turnout, assuming that the AA voter turnout will along its usual lines.

This doesn't allow for the increased voter turnout Obama has experienced.  They've also undercounted younger voters for the same reason.

I don't blame SurveyUSA for this -- Obama's style of campaign has had the power to re-write maps.  A collegue in PoliSci says we'll be talking about the demographics of this race for decades.


the third eye does not weep. it knows.
by mijita on Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:24:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA always undercounts blacks (none / 0)

I can understand that they may not be including enough Blacks in their polls, but I am still curious how they have shown McCain winning more than 20% of the Black vote for both MI and WI.  Any ideas?


by sasatlanta on Fri May 30, 2008 at 07:29:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA) (2.00 / 1)

This is GREAT NEWS for Hillary!


by baghdadjoe on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:50:33 PM EST

Re: Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA) (none / 0)

I think this is great news for Hillary!  I truly believe she wants to see the Democrat nominee win the White House.  :-)


by sasatlanta on Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:09:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama to 300 EVs (+6 in WI at SurveyUSA) (none / 0)

SurveyUSA published in 2008 5 polls in WI, including today's poll, they all saying the same thing and the same numbers.
However Rassmussen consistently giving opposite numbers.
If Jerome is using the latest poll, than wait until Rasmussen and see if it will flip WI.
Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Fri May 30, 2008 at 04:51:26 PM EST

where is your buddy marx? (none / 0)


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:04:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Das Grudge (2.00 / 1)

I asked him that a couple of months ago.  I'm guessing they aren't on speaking terms.

I think he is still feeling chagrined about being overshadowed by his partner after he worked so hard on the Manifesto.

That kind of grudge takes time to go away.


by emptythreatsfarm on Fri May 30, 2008 at 06:32:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

3) He is the nominee regardless (2.00 / 1)


by activatedbybush on Fri May 30, 2008 at 05:12:35 PM EST


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