So in such a great Democratic year,let's face facts that either Obama or Clinton is very, very likely to win the presidency.

Amazing win.

The Obama attacks may have actually helped Caz consolidate and turnout the black vote.

Terrific news.

And huge kudos to the Daily Kingfish, which has been keeping us posted on this race for weeks.

Go Dems!

My reaction is that the Obama issue turned a 6-8% win into a 3% win for Cazayoux.

The GOP turnout was indeed higher, and I'm a bit concerned Obama could cost us some close races in November.  There could be a lot of energized Republicans out there.

This race was very much put forward by the chattering class as a referendum on Obama's coattails (...), and Obama's coattails passed the challenge

As far as I know, Travis Childers was  the one forcefully linked to Obama (and the Wright stuff). Cazayoux was linked to both Pelosi & Obama on taxes, through a much milder one.

Thanks for your great reporting Jonathan.  Your posts are one of the few reasons I come here.

"he attacks linking Cazayoux to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama didn't work. They simply didn't. Yes, the Republicans pulled in more votes and a greater share of the vote than they did last month in the first round of balloting. So what."

So everything.  Or so nothing.

There is really no way to know what effect those ads had on this race.  They might have tightened the race considerably, they might have been completely negligible, or they might have backfired and even helped Don.  You can't know based on the evidence.  Neither can I.  Neither can the next poster.  Unfortunately, that won't stop all sorts of people in the blogosphere and the media from confidently claiming such knowledge.  As a political scientist, this stuff drives me bonkers.

This should be a night to celebrate a great democratic victory, not to speculating about the effects of an campaign that there is not a shred of evidence available to really assess.

That's the ticket: Obama/Pelosi

SUSA has Cazayoux up by 9 and at exactly 50%. That is basically what Cazayoux got in the end. It looks like Jenkins got most of the undecideds. So unlike the IL race, the Republicans closed better here and it could be because of the Obama/Pelosi ads. Jenkins will probably also run again in November since he was fairly close in the end.

An incredible win.  Let's put sub-partisanship aside and celebrate a Democratic win here.

If you combine this with Foster taking Hastert's old seat, things are looking good, and Obama's coattails are proving strong.  Thanks for the great diary, as usual.

I love that we have another D in the House, but you can't read much into this other than how extreme the Republicans' recruiting troubles have become. Unless you live in LA or work there you really have no idea how horrible, how bottom of the barrel a candidate Jenkins is. He's a perennial loser in LA GOP primaries, and a David Duke associate. And the district isn't ALL that Republican (just +6).

I'm just waiting to hear what the Obamabots' reaction will be when this guy announces he's for Hillary. Chances look pretty good to me, as least on a totally superficial, no-information level. I'm SO looking forward to that ...

I think the Obama/Pelosi ad had some traction but I also think Johnson's running of ads saying he was going to run in November may have had an effect also.

All this is pure speculation unless we see some exit polls.

I contributed to Cazayoux's campaign and I know a lot of Kossaks (i.e. Obama supporters) did.  I'm sure Hillary supporters here sent bucks too.  I'll kick in a little more for the re-election campaign since I like the young man.  He's a winner.

Just goes to show what a big impact the netroots have on down-ticket races.  I did phonebanking way back when for Ned Lamont and have contributed to the campaigns of candidates all over the country this cycle.  Yes We Can change the way politics is played in this country!

I'm thrilled Cazayoux won because it means that Democrats can be a threat everywhere.  

Since I don't have enough money to fund progressives who would join the caucus and help choose a better majority leader and be there to vote with the party when the chips are down, I'm not about to send my $ to him, but nonetheless I'm excited that he's been able to replace the loony right winger Republican.  There may be a few votes where he sticks with us when we need him, and that's better than a 100% certainty we won't get the Republican to vote with us.  

Despite the fact his election means the number of conservatives in the Dem congressional caucus goes up, it's worth it because it sets the stage for doing better in November for a lot of more progressive candidates.  

guys, not just yet, on Wright not hurting Obama. The campaign hasn't gone national yet, its just a primary fight. But come November, when everyone is paying attention, this could be a different story.

Funny names are so in this year.  Get with the program peoples.

"doesn't that kind of undercut the notion that Obama is unelectable? That he doesn't have coattails? ...?"

They don't like that kind of talk on the right side of this page.

Look! I live in Baton Rouge and voted today for Cazayoux, and I'm happy he won, but his victory was far from a convincing one to most voters. You can't judge how an entire nation is going to vote because of one district election. I can almost guarantee you that Louisiana will go for McCain in the Fall. There will be no coattails for Obama if he should be the Dems nominee, in fact he will have much difficulty getting the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the  White House.

w00t!!!

We witnessed tonight a great victory for the Democratic party.  A victory for our ideas, our beliefs, our ideals, and our vision for this country moving forward.

Tonight's win by Cazayoux isn't a referendum on Obama, or Clinton...it's a win by a Democrat in a strong Republican district.  It's a win that signals that Democrats can truly make noise in both the House and the Senate in the upcoming election.  It's a signal that even in the reddest of districts, our ideas and our values can prevail.

And most of all, it's a tribute to the vision and the strength of Don Cazayoux.  So I ask you all, to raise your virtual glasses, and toast the next Representative from the 6th District of Louisana, Don Cazayoux.

can agree on!!!!!!

If you think the Republicans are going to stop using Obama in scary ads after this slim win (where recent polls showed Cazayoux doing a lot better no matter how Republican the district is), I'd like some of what you're drinking.

Cazayoux was up 50 to 41 last week.

I think claiming vindication that the Obama ads had no impact is a wee bit naive.

Not to rain on the parade, but in the other LA state contest today, Gilda Reed (D) ran against State Senator Steve Scalise (R) for the LA-01 congressional seat and was defeated in a landslide. He beat her by a 3 to 1 margin. Latest results here:

http://www400.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgi bin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=050308

The LA-01 district includes the heavily suburban area of New Orleans. If anywhere, I thought we would do better in the hub-bubs of a leading city than in the old plantation heart of Louisiana.

Any analysis to come from a local or one better informed than me? I'm a resident of California who contributed to Gilda's campaign (well, just $75.00), but I'm curious as to why she lost in such a blow-out.

Are we over-celebrating Cazayoux's win as a trend in the heart of Rethug land?

Thank you for the reply. Well, at least Gilda got 1/3 of the vote!!  :-)

I just have to respond to some of these comments that are trying to blame obama for bringing down the margin of victory here...

In the first place, yes woody jenkins is batshit crazy, but you've got to put this in context.  He is a very well-known name in LA and a perennial politician.  And no, being associated with david duke does not necessarily cause him problems.  david duke was almost GOVERNOR of Louisiana, for chrissakes...The fact that Cazayoux was able to take him down is just monumental.

Furthermore, if anything, bringing the "specter" of obama into this race probably helped cazayoux, as the biggest risk to his election was going to be low black turnout.  Apparently, the republicans put out robocalls to black voters in the last few days trying to make cazayoux seem like a racist (this is a typical maneuver for LA repubs).  Thankfully, Cleo Fields threw his machinery behind cazayoux, which was sure to give him some credit with black voters (especially in baton rouge).  if anything, the energizing nature of the obama candidacy in the black community, and the historically high turnout rates for AA's in the primaries this year (mostly for obama) probably gave Cazayoux a hand today.  

Looking forward, the increase in black voter registration that has occurred throughout the primaries could be a huge and lasting benefit for the dem. party in the future.  If i were a superdelegate, i would be less concerned about obama's ability to win rural white voters versus hillary than about the need to keep these newly registered and other highly motivated AA voters (who support our candidates to the tune of 90%) energized for novemeber.  

If the anti-Obama ads were going to work, it was going to be during this election.  Obama was very vulnerable with the latest Wright flare-up and non-stop MSM narrative about how Obama's candidacy has been damaged by the association.  

If the ads didn't work now, they are less likely to work once the democratic party gets unified behind Obama and start focusing their scrutiny on McCain/Bush and the repubs.  

Huh?  Republicans TRIED to tie him to Obama and Pelosi--whatever.  This isn't a case of Obama's coattails or Clinton's or anyone else's.  Woody Jenkins is an awful person--the Republicans didn't avoid nominating an unelectable clown with terrible past associations.

If thre's any lesson to be drawn for national politics-and I don't really think there is--it might be that a party can't afford to nominate an unelectable candidate.

Sometimes the Obama folks really str-e-e-e-tch to sell their guy.  

It was a fine diary right up until the "And just to add one more thing..." stuff kicked in.

Please, look up the definition of non sequitur. There is no support here for your "Of Obama has positive coattails" lines. It simply does not follow.

You ruined a fine report. Try again.

A lot tighter than the pre-election polls suggested.  What happened?

... the presidential primary?

Come on.

In an article in wapo, it was clearly mentioned that Cazayoux souht to distance himself from GOP attack ad's linking him to Obama's extreme left views by claiming that hewas more conservative:

Below is a passage from the article:

His parents appeared in a commercial touting their son's opposition to abortion and support for gun owners' rights, positions that put him at odds with most members of the Democratic caucus.

"They're not running against me as a person; they're just saying I'm going to be at the extreme left on the issues, and that's just not correct," Cazayoux said. "People are looking for solutions -- I'm not sure if they're looking for Democrats or Republicans."

He even left open the possibility of voting for someone other than Pelosi, who has abysmal approval ratings here, for House speaker next January.

I congratulate him on his win, but it cannot be attributed to Obama's .coattails. In the last few days he distanced himself from Obama by saying that Obama had not endorsed him and also that this was a local race among other things.

Take a look at redstate.  Sad times over there.  Seems they're comforting themselves by agreeing that we were supposed to win in a blowout, and the fact that we took a seat that Bush won by 18 points in a relatively narrow margin means that we underperformed...

I look forward to our candidates "underperforming" in November when we rack up 40 House seats and 6 Senate seats.

"Coattails" is not the right word, since Obama's name wasn't on the ballot.  But this is definitely a positive data point in that respect, as well as a great win.

Frankly, one more Blue Dog Dem in the caucus is not a "win" for Progressives. I'd rather have a Republican outside pissing in than a BD doing the same from the inside. We have enough for a working majority without adding another BD to support things like, say, FISA.

A good win. At least this morning, one that we all as democrats can savor.

A win is a win is a win.

Any Democrat is preferable to any Republican.

The most important vote you cast every session is the first one, who is going to be Speaker and organize the House.

Oh good lord -- either tying Casayoux to Obama didn't work or Obama has coattails. It can't be both.

It's annoying to see Obama vs. Clinton posturing while celebrating the first of what should be many big Democratic wins this year. Let it go for one night.

Sure, Mr. Singer, Obama is totally electable.

The Republicans will not tie Rev. Wright to him, nor William Ayers and the family that he bombed, nor his wife's brilliant remarks about being proud of her country for the first time now. They will not try to portray Obama as unpatriotic compared to a Viet Nam war veteran who was tortured for five years in a concentration camp.

No, Obama will win over everyone and we will all ride off together on a big rainbow unity pony.

Mr. Singer, your denial is going to cost the Democrats this election. What were you doing in 1988 when Dukakis was destroyed by the Republicans---were you in pre-school or something? Watching The Flinstones perhaps? Well I was there. And it was pretty effing ugly.  

Talk about naive. It's jaw-dropping the casual way that you simply close your eyes and hope for the best, so sure in your knowledge that THIS TIME it's going to be different: OBAMA will change everything and the whole world will have a Coke together and see the light.

God, Obama is soooooo right for the country, right NOW!!!  As he says, it is our moment!