Update [by Jonathan Singer]: Here are the results from District 6:
2,961-vote margin for Cazayoux
Woody Jenkins (R): 46,741 votes (46.27 percent)
√ Don Cazayoux (D): 49,702 votes (49.20 percent)512 of 512 precincts (100.0 percent) reporting as of 11:19 PM Eastern
Update [2008-5-3 23:22:46 by Jonathan Singer]: For those interested, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen have both posted statements over at The Stakeholder.
Update [2008-5-3 23:19:55 by Jonathan Singer]: With all 512 precincts within the sixth congressional district of Louisiana reporting, Democrat Don Cazayoux has beaten Republican Woody Jenkins by a 2,961-vote margin. Barring a recount with some wild results (and I can't see a reason to believe that's in store here), this should just about do it folks. More thoughts to come in a subsequent thread...
Update [2008-5-3 22:53:32 by Jonathan Singer]: I haven't seen it officially called yet, but with just 4 precincts reporting and Cazayoux up by more than 3,000 votes, it looks like the Democrats have likely picked up their second House seat previously held by a Republican this year, a huge feat. Hoo-ah!
Update [2008-5-3 22:53:32 by Jonathan Singer]: Cazayoux has jumped out to better than a 2,000-vote lead with nearly four-fifths of the vote in -- his first lead in a long time. With all of the precincts remaining to report coming out of East Baton Rouge parish, things are not looking too bad for Cazayoux. Stick around for more updates, though...
Update [2008-5-3 22:30:15 by Jonathan Singer]: Oh the ups and downs. Jenkins' lead is back up to 2,000 votes again with about 70 percent of the vote in. Still, all but one of the remaining precincts still waiting report are in East Baton Rouge, so anything can happen...
Update [2008-5-3 22:30:15 by Jonathan Singer]: Jenkins' lead is under 1,000 votes for the first time in a long while tonight. This thing is tightening up a lot.
Update [2008-5-3 22:30:15 by Jonathan Singer]: Is the bottom falling out of Jenkins' lead? It just fell by about two-thirds with 60 percent of the vote in. Almost all of the vote remaining comes from East Baton Rouge parish, which, again, tends to be better for the Democrats than the Republicans. This could be a nail-biter.
Update [2008-5-3 22:3:27 by Jonathan Singer]: Jenkins' lead is still holding with approaching 50 percent of precincts reporting. This isn't looking terribly good at this juncture, but there are still a lot of votes to be had...
Update [2008-5-3 21:58:14 by Jonathan Singer]: Jenkins' lead has jumped up once again and now sits at about 3,000 with a little more than a third of the vote in. Only 10 percent of East Baton Rouge parish, where the Democrats received about 6,000 more votes than the Republicans during the first round of balloting, has reported, however, so these numbers are still likely to continue to jump around.
Update [2008-5-3 21:54:59 by Jonathan Singer]: Oop. Jenkins' lead just fell by more than 50 percent, underscoring the fact that these numbers are likely to jump around. Stick around here at MyDD, though, for running updates.
Update [2008-5-3 21:54:59 by Jonathan Singer]: Jenkins lead has grown to nearly 2,300 votes with about an eighth of the vote in. Still a lot of precincts remaining, particularly from Democratic-friendly East Baton Rouge parish, so this one isn't over by any means.
Update [2008-5-3 21:47:19 by Jonathan Singer]: With about 10 percent of precincts reporting, Republican Woody Jenkins has taken about a 700-vote lead (down about 100 votes from a few minutes ago). It's still very early, however, so we must stay tuned.
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Polls in Louisiana close at 9pm EDT in two special congressional elections. In LA-01, Democrat Gilda Werner Reed is taking on Republican Steve Scalise and in LA-06, Democrat Don Cazayoux is taking on Republican Woody Jenkins. LA-06 is the only one of the two that looks competitive for the Democrat, which means not only could we have one more vote to add to our majority, but also one more superdelegate at the convention (you knew it had to connect to the presidential somehow.)
Swing State Project has an interesting chart of turnout from the LA-06 primary runoff election to guide expectations in that race tonight. Food for thought:
Due to sheer vote power, Baton Rouge will decide this election. This is Woody's hometown, and Bush won West and East Baton Rouge parishes by a decisive 55%-45% margin over John Kerry in 2004. Still, that's not an insurmountable margin for a down-home Southern Dem to work with, and the city of Baton Rouge itself has seen a large influx of African-American residents from New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It will all come down to turnout here: Will the black vote come out strongly enough for Cazayoux, even though state Rep. Michael Jackson, defeated in the primary, is running TV ads telling his supporters that he'll run in November as an independent? The Cazayoux campaign and the DCCC have been working the field hard, but it's still, of course, up in the air until the returns come in.
Also check out The Daily Kingfish for live coverage.
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