Obama Wins Guam By 7

by Todd Beeton, Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:31:27 PM EST

Not 7%, but 7 votes. CNN has still called it for Obama though. Do I smell a recount?

Check out the unofficial vote count:

Barack Obama 50.1% (2264 votes)
Hillary Clinton 49.9% (2257 votes)

This is a remarkable upending of expectations for Hillary Clinton, even if it is just Guam.

Update [2008-5-3 20:6:26 by Todd Beeton]:Edited above to note that these vote counts are unofficial per KUAM News:

In the strangest of circumstances that could only bring about the closest of races, Hillary Rodham Clinton finished with 49.9% of the vote of the Guam Democratic Caucus, just 7 votes shy of Barack Obama's total of 50.1%. While Obama led for the vast majority of the night's tallying, Clinton needed a strong finish in the municipality of Dededo, Guam's most populous village. And she did - gaining 61% of the 822 votes counted by the Democratic Party of Guam.

Note: these are unofficial, uncertified results as tabulated by the Democratic Party of Guam.

Also, this is interesting:

The DPG noted a high number of spoiled ballots in Dededo.




Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, guam caucuses (all tags)

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Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Certainly telling.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:32:35 PM EST

Certainly is (2.00 / 3)

Hillary is the single greatest runner-up to ever run for the presidential nomination for either party.


by Cleveland John on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:48:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

Yes very telling. More delegates and another win for Senator Obama. For the first time I love math.


by Politicalslave on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:32:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

I just have to laugh. 7 votes who would have thought so? LOL. So much for the 11 pt margin on the spread sheet. The media is in shock.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:32:48 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

And it's a sigh of relief we only lost 20,000 jobs this month because we were expected to lose many, many more jobs.  A win is a win.


by Brad G on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:35:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Is this the new Obama talking point? You said the exact same thing in another diary.

The problem for Obama is that it plays into the "obama fading" media narrative.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:37:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

Except you don't win by losing.  You may be able to win a football bet by beating the points spread, but this is politics.

At the end of the day, the delegate math remains the same:

Pledged delegates:
    Obama: 1,491
    Clinton: 1,332

Remaining pledged delegates:  408
Delegates at stake on Tuesday:  187

What does this mean?  Let's say Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama split the delegates on Tuesday 50/50.  Then in order to be within 100 pledged delegates of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton would have to win over 63% of the remaining delegates.  Now which states has Hillary Clinton won 63% or more of the pledged delegates?  Arkansas -- that's it.  Do you honestly think the supers would abandon the party's most loyal constituency if Hillary Clinton finished even 100 pledged delegates behind Barack Obama?

The delegate math is the delegate math is the delegate math, and that's the sole metric we use to determine our party's nominee.


by Brad G on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:54:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton may win Guam in Obama "sure" win (none / 0)

"abandon the party's most loyal constituency"?

There's that unfailing elitism again. Did you have any specific constituency in mind?

"that's the sole metric we use to determine"

Not sure who the "we" is you are referring to, but the word "metric" is rapidly nearing one of the most used words in this campaign. At least it's not the formal "by any conceivable metric" talking point that failed to stop people from voting in primaries after someone declared Obama the nominee.

The real issue is that not counting FL and MI now is a sore eye and a liability for any candidate the Democratic Party puts forth. So you really should just say by any metric, based on disputed variables. Don't you think that would be more honest when describing that's how we do?


Barack Obama is my President
by Jeter on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Elitism? (2.00 / 1)

That's conventional wisdom in Democratic circles.

And, yes, there has to be a certain metric to determine a winner of every contest.  Many times a baseball team has more hits and fewer errors but loses because of a technicality called runs scored.  In Democratic primaries, we use delegates as the metric.  How do you suggest we determine our party's nominee?

On FL and MI, I think things would be worse if the January results were counted or if there were a revote.  It would effectively mean that no rule would ever matter again, and every state could move its primary to whenever it wanted without any consequences.  It would mean that the retail politics we've come to know and love from IA and NH having first in the nation status would come to an end, and little-known, underfinanced candidates such as Chris Dodd, Mike Huckabee, or Joe Biden would have absolutely no shot at proving themselves.  In other words, accepting any form of the January MI/FL results would jepordize future Democratic Presidential candidates' prospects.

We should either split the vote 50/50, let just the supers -- which favor Sen. Clinton in both those states -- vote, or some other sanction.  But it's inexcusable to allow scofflaw FL and MI voters any say in determining the nominee.  The DNC did nothing wrong, and should not have to suffer as a result of FL and MI breaking the rules.


by Brad G on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:59:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Buyer's remorse? .. I saw a poll the other day that said Obama would whip Hillary's butt if the primary in NJ was held last week instead of Super Tuesday .. so that buyers remorse nonsense works both ways


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:33:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Bad poll, 20 % undecided after the vote? Obama beating McCain by double digits in NJ? No way


by eumc on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:35:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Bad poll? .. is that because you are a Hillary supporter? .. and do you really think McBush is going to win NJ in November? .. If you do .. I have a bridge I'd like to sell you


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:39:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

We could also ask that given Hillary Clinton's name recognition and her inherent advantage of being a former First Lady, why isn't even her own party willing to elevate her above 50% in the polls?

Also, with Hillary Clinton, all Republicans have to do is ask, "How do you feel about Bill Clinton coming back to the White House?"  I think that sums up everything (the pardons, the library donations, etc.)

Finally, many Democrats -- especially in the South -- depend upon African-Americans to get elected.  Abandoning the party's most loyal constituency when someone who won in the sole metric that decides the nominee could seriously damage the party's prospects at other levels of government.  The Presidency is not the only office at stake.

I very much admire Hillary Clinton.  I always have and always will.  She has taken more slings and arrows thrown by Republicans -- much of it on our behalf -- than any other Democrat over the last 15 years.  But that still doesn't guarantee you the nomination.  We also want someone who wants to appeal to our "better angels."


by Brad G on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:41:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Women are as loyal a constituency as African Americans. The "one metric that decides the nomination" is the vote in Denver.
Anything you don't agree with?

by eumc on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:56:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Women are as loyal as African-Americans to the Democratic Party?  Do 80-90% of them vote for the Democratic President each election cycle?


by Brad G on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:01:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

So that's how you define loyalty. African Americans that voted for Obama are some 18% of the party, right? White women who voted for Hillary are about 30%.

My point is, this sort of comparative victimization is crap. Everybody's got the right to vote as he pleases, no candidacy is more historical than the other and there is only one standard of victory: somebody drops out or the convention decides.


by eumc on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

>> Women are as loyal a constituency as African Americans.

And if Hillary had a significant pledged delegate lead at this point, it would be a terrible idea for the Superdelegates to overturn that.  But that ain't the way it is.

However imperfect the system may be, it's given Obama a sizeable lead over Clinton in pledged delegates, a lead that isn't realistically going to change before the primary schedule ends.

Put yourself in the position of a superdelegate.  Imagine it's June 5th, and Obama still has a lead of 100 or so pledged delegates.  Imagine you're meeting with a group of African-American voters and leaders to explain why you've chosen to cast your superdelegate vote for Clinton instead of Obama.  

What exactly are you going to tell them?  

"Yeah, I know Obama won more delegates in the primaries and caucuses, but I'm voting for Hillary because she got a huge number of votes in those uncontested primaries in Michigan and Florida.  And also, because he only won Guam by seven votes.  And also, really, to be honest with you, she appeals better to whites.  But I'm sure I can count on the African-American community to enthusiastically support Clinton, even though Obama actually got more delegates from the primary and caucus process and we decided to nominate Clinton anyway."

You really think that's going to fly?

Hey, if Hillary were ahead in pledged delegates, I'd be saying she deserves the nomination.  I admit I wouldn't like it a whole lot, but I'd still have to concede that she won the process fair and square.  But that ain't the way it is.


by Frood on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:08:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

This is somehow race-baiting. Why do you assume superdelegates should be out meeting African Americans one by one? And why do you assume African Americans would be more chagrined than the average Hillary voter, of which there may be more right now (popular vote)?

Just imagine how it really works: day by day delegates put out media statements supporting one candidate. It won't be a drama, despite what the media is saying, it just happens.

When one candidate believes he's got the delegates, he'll ask the other one to drop out. If the other one wouldn't drop out and his/her supporters can stand the pressure, it will go to the convention, where delegates really vote.

You're creating yourself a drama out of it.


by eumc on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:20:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

>> And why do you assume African Americans would be
>> more chagrined than the average Hillary voter, of
>> which there may be more right now (popular vote)?

Because Obama has all but won the race for pledged delegates by a substantial margin, and that's what was laid out at the beginning of the process as the important metric.  Hillary Clinton hasn't, and no reasonable outcome for the remaining races will change that.

African Americans have been the staunchest supporters of the Democratic party for decades.  Over that time, they have loyally voted for the white men nominated for president by the Democratic party.  They haven't complained about that, because the nomination process has been handled fairly and the candidate who's won the most delegates has been nominated.  For forty-odd years, they've played by the rules.

And now, playing by the rules, an African-American holds a substantial delegate lead in the race for the nomination, and no primary between now and June is going to change that.

What you're proposing is for the superdelegates to effectively say "Hey guys, listen, I know you've all been waiting for the year when your candidate came out ahead in the nominating process, but... well, we're going with Hillary anyway.  Hope you understand."  

Do you really think any of them are going to do that?


by Frood on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:27:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Turning Obama into the black victim (none / 0)

Look, you are all pushing this victimizing narrative.

1) It's pure political imagination to think that superdelegates would go meet AA. Would you like a stadium? Or a convention? Or maybe should they meet in the park?

2) You are all so sure of the history of the AA vote.


African Americans have been the staunchest supporters of the Democratic party for decades.  Over that time, they have loyally voted for the white men nominated for president by the Democratic party.  For forty-odd years, they've played by the rules.

This is patently false. Jesse Jackson was briefly a frontrunner in the 1988 race. He pushed his demands to the convention in 1984. In 1988 he demanded the VP slot (I think he deserved it).

As about being the "staunchest supporters", whatever that means, they didn't like at first Bill Clinton's Sister Souljah moment and the welfare reform (the whole the 'first black president' meme started in the 2nd term), they didn't turn out very well for Dukakis. Most important, they voted as they did because they are a part of this party and they believe in the ideas of this party and they benefited from the policies of the party, just like any other member of any other race.

3) It is demeaning and slanderous of everybody involved.

a) You're turning Obama into the black candidate in the race, supported by the Black faction of the Dem Party

b) Your argument would fly only if the superdelegate vote was somehow racially motivated. But it is not. If it was Clinton vs Gore, suppose superdelegates overrule the pledged delegates. Would the black community revolt for Gore?

c) You're demeaning the black supporters of Clinton. Whatever you think of her, she worked for AA issues for a looong time and she made a lot of close friends. Are those people traitors? Aren't they also a part of the Black community?

So we should all calm down and see victory for what it is: a vote in Denver or the opponent's conceding.


by eumc on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:50:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

He is slipping right into the presidency.


by Politicalslave on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:42:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

obama won, again. not exactly fading.


!
by alex100 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

Yeah but it goes well with the Clinton has already lost and is just a sore loser narrative.  Too bad really, she could have been a good President if she hadn't ran such a god awful campaign.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:12:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

LOL. So Obama is the winner by 7 votes when he said he was going to win by 11% is a good thing? I guess that's the Obama math for you. And if he already has it in the bag then why is he looking to lose IN when he said he would win? Why is he losing support with Dem primary voters according to Gallup? Why is he losing to McCain according to Gallup? Why does he look so defeated when he talks?


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:17:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

He has gotten more delegates then Clinton since PA and he will make up the 9 delegate difference in NC.  It's not Obama math, just math.  Look, Clinton just figured out like 3 weeks ago to get rid of Penn, then she started doing well.  If it took her that long to cut off the cancerous tumor then she only has herself to blame for losing.  And she has already lost.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:20:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

He has serious demographic problems. Once again, if Obama has already won then why is he doing so poorly? Do you think it's buyers remorse? It seems that he should be walking all over Hillary if he's got it in the bag. He doesn't act very confident that's for sure.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:28:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

Also, I'm sure Dino Rossi takes solace that he only lost the WA governorship race by 21 votes to Chris Gregoire.


by Brad G on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:08:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The rules are different for Hillary (2.00 / 1)

..she's a victim.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:21:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Don't they split the delegates regardless? You know, that metric which actually counts?


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:33:14 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

The pledged delegates, yes.  But one of the superdelegates has promised to vote for the popular vote winner, so it actually does matter for a 2-vote swing.  (Actually, it might only be a one-vote swing; I'm not sure if the Guam superdelegates get half-votes or full votes.)


by Frood on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:36:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Full votes, so I guess we will see what he does when the vote is that close. There is a chance he could justify voting for either.


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:39:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

I think if you promise to go with the results of the popular vote, the only thing you can justify is going with the results of the popular vote, even if it's a one-vote difference.

That said, there appear to be reports of a large amount of ballot spoilage in Dededo, where Clinton did well, so a recount might change things.


by Frood on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:48:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Do they vote on cabbage?  Spoilage is just a funny word combined with ballot


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:13:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary's voters are working class (none / 0)

they can only afford spoiled ballots.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

Good Lord.  Obama was supposed to win Guam by a double digit margin.  It's basically tied!!  


by karajan72 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:33:24 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

No such thing.  You win or lose.  Obama won.  You can tell me Guam is urban, you can tell me Guam is elitist, you can tell me Guam is 100 percent African American and you can tell me Jesse Jackson won Guam in '88, but you can't tell me they TIED.

And if you base it on the pledged delegates, then you'll have to notify the Clinton campaign to stop counting Texas and Nevada in their win column.


by niksder on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

There was a very large number of "spoiled" ballots, according to reports from the two campaigns in Guam. No election official will certify a win for anyone for a couple of days. The Clinton campaign spokesperson in GUam has stated that they will not call for a recount, but focus on winning over the superdelegates. We'll see. In any case, can we call a halt to posting countless large images in posts? Especially the same ones, over and over again? This advertising for Obama's appearance on Meet the Press is pretty irritating. They have the money to pay for ads if they chose to do so.
Barack Obama is my President
by Jeter on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:10:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't be intimidated (none / 0)

don't be intimidated by Barack's big, bad, activist supporters.

there are plenty ads for Hillary's appearance that you could cut and paste.  But, alas, hillary's base doesn't include any activist.  They have to pay Mark Penn 10s of millions of dollars, because average people have no enthusiasm for Hill.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:29:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Yeah, and Obama can stop claiming Missouri as a win then,,, since they tied in delegates.


by PracticalMagic on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:56:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 0)

Exactly!  How can Obama unite Red States and Blue States, the United States,  when he can't even unite his own party?


by PracticalMagic on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:58:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

Holy cow!


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:34:12 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

I got the impression from the very beginning that neither candidate was very concerned with Guam.  There would have had to be a major blowout just to change the delegate count from 2-2.  It's one more electoral victory he can count towards his total, but other than that, I can't really see it making any kind of difference.


by Jakra on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:34:23 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 0)

It is not an electoral college victory, which is why many people were not especially concerned with who won. But a recount needs to be done in any case. Considering expectations, this is a bruising loss for Obama. Mostly because his campaign is really clutching at anything to regain some kind of momentum narrative.
Barack Obama is my President
by Jeter on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:42:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

How is it "clutching at anything" to remind people that you still have a solid lead in delegates? -- in fact, pretty much the same lead you had before Texas and Ohio?


by Frood on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:15:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Who won GUam? (none / 0)

Pennsylvania, for starters. It's one of those states where the popular vote will count towards who wins the state. Whoever gets the higher number wins.
Barack Obama is my President
by Jeter on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:34:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

In life, it is always, "what have you done for me lately?"  This lesson is not lost on the Superdelegates.  If Hillary Clinton is on an upswing - and since OH, TX, PA, now Guam, and Tues IN and NC, it does make one think something has changed. Obama's been hurt by many mistakes of late, but his message is getting tired, and many are questioning what does "change" and "a different kind of politics" mean?  Where's the beef?  In the meantime, Clinton is out there pushing her solutions, great and small, to the problems of everyday Americans.  She gets it, the electorate sees it, and Obama does not. How many times do we need to hear "it's in my DNA" or "only in America could Barack Obama be where he is"?  What has that got to do with anything about the people and their problems? As it becomes more about him, and less about us, he is fading fast. And, on top of it all, add Reverend Wright's comments, and the fact that no one believes that a 20 yr close association doesn't "rub off" and plant some ideas deep seated into the man that looked up to Reverend Wright and you have a perfect storm for Obama, causing all this Obama drama that will end his candidacy. Hillary is poised to take all the remaining contests ....  


by PracticalMagic on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:06:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Incredible and Unexpected (2.00 / 1)

This would be like Barack Obama only losing Pennsylvania by less than one percent.  It shows that even in his two strongest electoral environments (caucuses and overseas), he can barely eke out a win.  

Just... wow.


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:34:59 PM EST

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (2.00 / 1)

have you lost your mind?

its bloody guam.

meaningless, not-even-a-state guam.

guam. it doesnt matter.  one way or another, maybe a difference of a delegate or less.


Who killed our leaders? Who holds our reins? Who is our enemy?
by dem sam on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:38:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (2.00 / 2)

No - you miss the point.  Once again Hillary comes up from behind when she supposedly has no chance.

THAT's the message here.


It does not take many words to tell the truth Chief Joseph - Nez Perce
by Gabriele Droz on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:47:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (none / 0)

>> No - you miss the point.  Once again Hillary
>> comes up from behind when she supposedly has no
>> chance.

IN GUAM.

I mean, congrats to Hillary on getting four pledged half-delegates instead of the number she would have gotten if Obama had won by 11, which would have been... probably also four.


by Frood on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (2.00 / 0)

its bloody guam.  meaningless, not-even-a-state guam.

Angels and ministers of grace, defend us.  The Obama Nation is attacking small jurisdictions for being "meaningless" and "not-even-a-state."

Well, I suppose Howard Dean never called for a 50-state plus Guam strategy.


by He Who Must Not Be Named on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:49:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (none / 0)

That's too funny... how the worm turns!


by PracticalMagic on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:07:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (2.00 / 1)

What a lovely comment.  The people of Guam are American citizens, and you call their votes meaningless?  Where is that vaunted Obama inclusiveness?


by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:53:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (none / 0)

They are protectorates, not citizens.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:15:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (2.00 / 0)

Wrong.  Guam is a territory, and the people of Guam were granted U.S. citizenship in 1950.

http://www.doi.gov/oia/Islandpages/gumai n.htm


by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:23:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (none / 0)

Well they need to start paying some damn income tax!


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:24:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (none / 0)

He's simply referring to the fact that, rightly or wrongly, Guam's importance to the Democratic Party nomination process is so close to zero that you couldn't fit a piece of tissue paper in between them.


by Frood on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:17:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (2.00 / 1)

My point is that every time I turn around, an Obama supporter is mocking Hillary supporters for saying that Hillary has won big states.  "Oh, so only some states count!?"


by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (none / 0)

Okay, fine, how much does Guam count.

Looks like 2 pledged delegates for either side, so effectively zero impact there.

And then one superdelegate for Obama and one for either Clinton or Obama pending the recount -- so, another break-even, or possibly a net +2 for Obama.  This is compared to Obama's current margin of 135 delegates, which means Obama's lead grew by approximately 1.5% in size.

There you go.  That's the sum total of the importance of the Guam caucus, right there for you.


by Frood on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:39:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (1.50 / 2)

The point is that this election occurred in the two environments that favor Barack Obama the most: overseas and caucus.  

If he can only win by 7 votes both both of those heavily Obama favoring variables in his favor, his ship is sinking.

The batteries are falling out of the O-bots.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:54:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Incredible and Unexpected (none / 0)

It's a secret ballot.  They call it a "caucus" but it really isn't.


It's all about McCain/Bush now...
by thereisnospoon on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:21:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Mmmmm Kool-aid (1.00 / 1)

The most famous politician in the world has fallen, and she can't get up.

All the kings horses and all the kings men, won't be able to put Hillary Clinton together, again.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"most famous politician in the world'? (none / 0)

Bluntly, you are overestimating both the influence of the US and the knowledge of US affairs by the other inhabitants of this planet.

Bush is probably at least one the most (in?)famous politicians in the world, but I doubt if even 50% of the people in the world have heard of him and I think its stretching it to even guess that 20% of the people in the world have ever even heard of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

Most of us don't speak English, remember? (think the Internet is important? Only around 6% of the people in the world have access to a computer.)

Thats like saying that the rest of the people and animals, and plants, all life on Earth, would want to willingly DIE in a global nuclear war so that "America would remain free".


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Comprehensively cover 100%, not only the healthiest 80%
by architek on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:23:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're right (none / 0)

He only won Wisconisn by 17 pts.

He only won Maryland by 22 pts.

BWHAHAHAHAHHHAHHAHAHAH!!!


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:44:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (2.00 / 1)

All pre Wright too. Think about that.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:46:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (2.00 / 1)

Ah yes, the white working class voters of Guam were horrified by the rantings of Reverend Wright.


by elrod on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:49:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (none / 0)

Are you familiar with the demographics of Guam?


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:59:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (2.00 / 1)

You know that New Jersey, which went for Clinton on Super Tuesday, now favors Obama over Clinton by 10 points, post-Wright?

If you want to hold a re-vote in every state in the country, then let's do it.  I'd be very interested to see the current numbers in California, for instance.


by Frood on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:54:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (none / 0)

Last SUSA had Clinton polling better than Obama in CA.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:59:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (none / 0)

By the same margin she won it by in February?


by Frood on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:19:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (none / 0)

And Michigan.


by ProgressiveDL on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:02:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (none / 0)

If they only had known what we all know now...


It does not take many words to tell the truth Chief Joseph - Nez Perce
by Gabriele Droz on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:48:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (2.00 / 1)

LOL

Keep talking about the glory days when Obama was winning.  You might as well reminisce about the days when Michael Jackson was the hottest item in pop music.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:48:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (2.00 / 1)

Michael Jackson is still the hottest item in pop music?  Cause Obama is still winning.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:16:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (2.00 / 0)

Exactly.  Michael Jackson is still the hottest pop star and Obama is still winning.  

It's amazing what you can do with a little imagination.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:42:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're right (2.00 / 1)

Honey chile - -
In politics, that was eons ago.
Obama's campaign is dead in the water.
by johnnygunn on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:50:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

tick...tick...tick..tick..tick..tick...tick...tick (1.00 / 3)

4-weeks left in the campaign.

Then Hillary enters the Loser's Hall of Shame.

What are you guys gonna do in 4-weeks.

Gawd, oh Gawd, will you guys be weeping of what.

Bitter - Angry,  desperately clinging to your fallen idol.

Bwhahahahahhhhah!!


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:06:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: tick...tick...tick..tick..tick..tick...tick... (2.00 / 0)

There you go again -
Everybody else is "bitter".

Heh-heh-heh.


by johnnygunn on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:13:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: tick...tick...tick..tick..tick..tick...tick... (none / 0)

I would have gone with an American Idol come back but that is just my style


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

HILLMENTUM!

Guam rocks! cnn says big senior turnout for clinton is the reason for the stunning upending of expectations.


by zane on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:35:15 PM EST

I expect him to win IN by 7 votes (2.00 / 1)

It only makes sense now.  Just wow.


by sweet potato pie on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:35:21 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Whose expectations?  Who really had any idea how Guam would vote?

Just asking.


John McCain: Extending SCHIP would be an "unfunded liability."
by Fuzzy Dunlop on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:35:37 PM EST

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

his own spreadsheet.


by zane on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:37:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The one that had him losing Maine (none / 0)

silly, silly, silly.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:40:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

The Guam prediction was made up out of whole cloth.


by elrod on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:40:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

You know what? Obama should have never let that spreadsheet see the light of day. It has become something that has come to hurt him and not help him. It worked to create a media narrative in the beginning but has since blown up in his face. People are going to be quoting that spreadsheet from now on.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:45:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

Get over yourself.  How has that hurt him?  Hillary lost it a long time ago.  Who knew who Obama was two years ago?  A few political junkies?  And yet he beat one of the most famous women in the world(When she had every advantage)?


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:52:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

Actually she lacks the admitted advantage of being male.


by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:54:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

and he lacks the admitted advantage of being white.


by soros on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:57:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

And a recent survey shows that more Americans say they will vote for a black president than for a female president.


by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:03:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

and you still want to run Hillary in the GE knowing that?


by soros on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:14:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yep (2.00 / 1)

And you know why?  Because Obama's problems go a lot deeper than Hillary's gender.  


by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:19:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep (2.00 / 1)

Oh, yeah. And so do Hillary's my friend, so do Hillary's.


by danfromny on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:17:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Oooh...ZING!


by ProgressiveDL on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:03:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

And it's such an advantage to be a black guy named Barack Obama?  C'mon, Geraldine Ferrarro.


by Brad G on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:01:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Hey, in advertising parlance, he's NEW! DIFFERENT! EXCITING!


by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:04:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Victimization and umbrage. That's all you have left. It's not sexism, really. Most people are pretty fed up with the MEN in her campaign too. Mark Penn, James Carville, Wolfson, Bill.


by danfromny on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Gee, are you projecting?  Hillary talks not a whit about victimization.  She talks about plans and policies and healthcare and education.


by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:39:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

no victimization?!?!? What? Are you friggin kiddin' me?  
You yourself - you - brought up the boo hoo sad fact about her being a woman, blah blah blah ...
by danfromny on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:03:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Are you being obtuse on purpose?  Sexism IS playing a role, but that does not mean that Hillary is playing a victim.  She is not.  She runs without acting like a victim.  Racism is also playing a role, and Obama is doing a bit less well at not acting like a victim.


by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:09:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

Oh, please. She started months ago "I get all the first questions at the debates" and every other chance she (or Bill too) gets to complain that being a woman candidate is so tough. wah wah. Big deal.


by danfromny on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:19:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

or being honest or having integrity or having a winning campaign or caring about anyone other than herself.


by danfromny on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:28:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OUCH !! (none / 0)

But, so true


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:35:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

Actually she lacks the admitted advantage of being male...

or being honest or having integrity or having a winning campaign or caring about anyone other than herself.


by danfromny on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

That second line was a description of Obama, right?  Please don't confuse me by using the wrong pronoun.


by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:41:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

I know you are, but what am I?
I'm rubber, you're glue ...
by danfromny on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:00:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Advantage? (2.00 / 1)

Look at the exit polls.

If Clinton was male, this race would be over right now. Obama would have won a long time ago.

In PA, the two tied 50-50 among voters for whom gender was not a consideration. In TX, Obama would have won by 2 points.

Clinton won voters for whom gender and/or race was a consideration by a significantly larger margin than 'regular' voters. At least in Democratic party primaries, being male is not an advantage.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:32:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Advantage? (none / 0)

If Clinton were male she wouldn't have been a former first lady. Your imaginary male Clinton would have been out around the time of Biden or Kucinich, so shove that reasoning.


by danfromny on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:34:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

If he won it long ago then why aren't the voters going along? He should have won Guam by the 11% he predicted.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:01:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

7 votes is about 11% of Guamanians, isn't it? I've had more people than that in my car.


by danfromny on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:36:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

Campaign's own random prediction from early Feb. He actually predicted a 2-2 split, which was almost impossible not to happen, so technically they wasn't wrong.


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:40:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (2.00 / 1)

I don't think campaigns make predictions at random.  Particularly not Obama's campaign and its famous spreadsheets.

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?i d=f746721e-74d7-4313-9231-7e75e5d56fbb&a mp;k=96965
One of Plouffe's most underappreciated accomplishments began, fittingly enough, with a spreadsheet. After New Hampshire, Plouffe realized that, if the campaign was going to become a battle of attrition, he needed to convince onlookers that the pledged-delegate total was sacrosanct. "His thought was that we need to cement that into the conventional wisdom," recalls an Obama aide. "That we couldn't rely on media outlets, because different folks have different standards." To this end, Plouffe had Berman set up a sophisticated counting operation that would compile votes and generate delegate allocations. The product of all this hairy math would be an intricately constructed, color-coded Excel file showing a state-by-state breakdown, along with projections going forward.

Of course they leaked them to get the media obsessed about the math, and did a pretty good job at getting the media to intervene on their behalf in order to shut the primary down for them before millions were able to vote.  And all that with math that wasn't even very good, perhaps?


by daria g on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:21:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Barack is a Mac, Hillary is a PC (none / 0)

If Hill got outfoxxed by a spread sheet, then she doesn't deserve to me the nominee.

You wouldn't think a fighter could be derailed by a simple spread sheet.  But you say so.

thanks Daria.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Wins Guam By 7 (none / 0)

It was a caucus and it was overseas.

Previously, those two environments were impenetrable Obama strongholds.  Now the fort is crumbling.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:55:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

BREAKING: Obama Wins - Guam Damns Hillary (none / 0)

NBC now projects Guam Slam Obama.

► Obama takes Dededo!

The fans are going crazy, as Barack rounds the bases!!

Obama carried Guam's Greenwich Village in a landslide

► more than 4500 turned out to the polls (almost as much as the Wyoming primary).

► Right now, on CNN, Bill Schneider is saying, "momentum is now with Obama."

O..BA.MA!

O..BA.MA!

O..BA.MA!

O..BA.MA!

O..BA.MA!


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:36:12 PM EST

Re: BREAKING: Obama Wins - Guam Damns Hillary (none / 0)

did you apply for the Iraqi information minister job? I hear there is an opening


by pdxarch on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:04:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why, did Howard Wolfson quit? (none / 0)

HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHHHAHA!!

you guys are such easy pickings.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:10:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why, did Howard Wolfson quit? (none / 0)

Irony is not a word on bot dictionary I guess!! Does self-congratulatory patting your back thingy remind you of anyone I mentioned in my post? I didnt think so, since logic or use of grey matter is not the bot forte! But then again what else is new?

Now try and get a clue on what the comment was about:

Obama wins the Guam vote by 7 votes and a recall was initiated. Your response: "Bill Snyder now says the momentum is with Obama!!

Stick to fainting for the messiah or repeating talking points without understanding them! you might do better that way. Logic and reasoning are too much to ask for until you graduate high school, I doubt even after that


by pdxarch on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:52:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]