MyDD :: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!!

Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!!

by LindaSFNM, Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:30:45 PM EST

Obama was leading with 5 percent, but waiting for the 2nd largest village of Dededo to report.

They did. They too overwhelmingly went to Hillary.

Village of Dededo
Hillary Clinton 509
Barack Obama 313

That changed any lead Obama had, resulting in a virtual tie.

No 11 percent win for Obama as he predicted.

Same amount of delegates for each.

Vote total is

Hillary Clinton 2257
Barack Obama 2264

Total votes 4521

100 percent reported

*UPDATE*:

Some are questioning this being a tie. I did post the link that gave more detailed inforamtion, but just to clear things up. Even though Guam has fewer voters, 7 votes still only is equivalent to a .02 percent.

total votes 4521 100.0%

BARACK OBAMA 2264 50.1%

HILLARY CLINTON 2257 49.9%

that is 50/50, otherwise known as a tie.

Tags: Hillary Clinton, president, Barack Obama, Guam, Democratic Caucus, election 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 73 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 8)

Hillary and Obama almost tied and it was a caucus? That's news. It's also amazing because Obama's projections were that he would win Guam by over 10 percentage points.

by zenful6219 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:32:12 PM EST

they couldn't figure out how to bus (2.00 / 9)

people in from IL.

jk... lol

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:35:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: they couldn't figure out how to bus (2.00 / 4)

Hehe, good one.

by Gabbo on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:55:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: they couldn't figure out how to bus (2.00 / 4)

Oh! that was ripe.....I am still laughing...besides, the bus was being used by Obama....he has his eye on others he needs to plow under the bus.....

by NHLight on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:12:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: they couldn't figure out how to bus (2.00 / 3)

that is a good one. lol

by LindaSFNM on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:51:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

WOW!!!! (2.00 / 5)

This just proves that Hillary's momentum is real. She started off in Guam as the real underdog... And she nearly TIED Obama. This is a good sign going into Indiana & North Carolina. :-)

No way, no how, no McCain! :-)

by atdleft on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:03:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (none / 0)

Ties, and eve small wins, gain Hillary nothing that matters. She can't win the nomination on the fumes of "moral" victories.

Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129

by Kobi on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:33:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 7)

Woot! A tie in Guam. What happened to that 11% win??

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:32:20 PM EST

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 7)

Yep.......lovin' the Hill Surge! :)

by LindaSFNM on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:34:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary is a class act... (2.00 / 5)

She knows a lot about Guam.. (which s really a unique spot for the US, being far closer to Asia than anywhere else in the US)

Excellent!

http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money

by architek on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:39:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 7)

yeah, that spreadsheet is just so much toilet paper now that hillary's got her groove back.

i mean, obama opened an office. on GUAM. he advertised on all the guam websites. maybe he shoulda campaigned there in person - i dunno. this is a major embarrassment for team obama.

by campskunk on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:36:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Are all the votes in, is this final? (2.00 / 2)

They are one day ahead of us, right? (so its Sunday night, not saturday, right?)

http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money

by architek on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:40:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (none / 0)

He is up an aggregate of more than 120 percentage points over his predictions so far, I think he can spare a few. In fact, doesn't she have to win like 80% of the remaining delegates to take the lead?

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:39:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Harumph!!!!! (none / 0)

If you are under the impression that Odrama can win without super delegates, could I get you to send me a little of whatever it is that you are smoking.

He was expecting to win and had actual offices open in Guam, outspent Hillary and still only tied instead of winning by double digits. Poor thing. You are right. It is all Hillary's fault. She is just a better candidate and more people want her for our next President.

by macmcd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:58:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Harumph!!!!! (none / 0)

Clinton hasn't gotten more superdelegates on a single day in the last two months. What world are you living in? She has gone from having a superdelegate lead from well over 100 to 19-21 (depending on whose count you believe)?

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:25:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Harumph!!!!! (none / 0)

Obama keeps picking more SDs than Hill. 3 more today alone.

Hillary: "Her dishonesty is actually honest." -- yellowdem1129

by Kobi on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:36:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 2)

Moveon people couldn't`t find it on the map.

Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime

by gunner on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:41:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I guess they hadn't gotten the word that (2.00 / 1)

Obama was going to fix their great lake for them also. LOL

by macmcd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:59:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Guam is NOT a TIE it's a WIN (2.00 / 1)

How is winning a tie? Again with clintonites and problems with Math.

by venician on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:45:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is NOT a TIE it's a WIN (2.00 / 1)

is that a joke? that's funny...

by SHIBAM8P on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:59:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is NOT a TIE it's a WIN (2.00 / 3)

it might become a win, they're doing a recount. 500 spoiled ballots, so maybe he can take it by eleven votes, isn't that what he predicted? (or maybe she'll take it by seven, but it'll still be a tie, even if she's a few votes ahead).

Hillary - alternative energy

by anna shane on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:39:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I say it is a damned good (2.00 / 1)

Come From Behind Tie!!!!!!!!

Our next President is Hillary Clinton. Thank you, Guam.

by macmcd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:01:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So where were you... (2.00 / 5)

When Hillary won Pennsylvania? She won solidly, yet the Obama bloggers here were arguing over whether or not a 9+ point win was really a "win".

Hello?

No way, no how, no McCain! :-)

by atdleft on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:05:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So where were you... (none / 0)

So in other words, your answer is "you're a hypocrite first!"

No way. No how. No McCain.

by freedom78 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:31:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So where were you... (none / 0)

I never argued that it wasn't a win, but I did argue that 9.2 doesn't round to 10.

In other words, I argued on behalf of what you learn in 4th grade math.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:27:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Are you agruing now that (2.00 / 1)

50.02% rounds to 57%? Just trying to understand what your position is on this Obama sweep of Guam.

by macmcd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:03:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Are you agruing now that (none / 0)

I'm talking about PA.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So where were you... (none / 0)

Why is PA the only State that is not rounded up or down. She got 54.6% and he got 45.4%. Fourth grade math says we round up or down depending on whether it is over or under .5. Hence she got 55% and he got 45%.

Remember IOWA. Edwards rounded up to 30%; Clinton rounded down to 29% even though only 3/10 of a per cent separated them. Same principle applies to Obama.

I guess some people can't get over the psychology of a double digit win. As far as I know, there has been no other race that has been so widely reported to the fraction. That is usually reserved for Real Clear Politics.

"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."

by LadyEagle on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:24:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So where were you... (none / 0)

54.6% minus 45.4% equals 9.2%. The .2 is under .5 so by your rules she would have a 9% (not 10%) win over Obama.

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Sun May 04, 2008 at 02:05:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So where were you... (none / 0)

I can understand the psychology of 10% instead of 9%, so in the interest of fairness could you tell me the exact % that Obama won by in his contests?

If you notice the networks call it at 10% because of the traditional fourth grade system all of us use. I have to get used to Obama's campaign new math.

"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."

by LadyEagle on Sun May 04, 2008 at 06:52:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So where were you... (none / 0)

Its not psychology, its math. The margin was 9.2%, so the media or anyone else should just say 9.2% or round down (under the 4th grade system) to 9%.

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:26:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So where were you... (none / 0)

Ok, by the same token, can you tell me to the decimal which of Obama's wins were presented as such?

"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."

by LadyEagle on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:49:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So where were you... (none / 0)

OK so I decided to take you up on the challenge and took his more recent win in Wyoming as an example. There Obama got 5,378 out of 8,753 (rounded to the nearest tenth like I did in PA that equals 61.4%). Hillary got 3,312 out of 8,753 (rounded to the nearest tenth like I did in PA that equals 37.8%). 61.4 minus 37.8 equals 23.6. Now under 4th grade math, since the .6 is greater than .5 we would expect the media and others to report Obama's vicory margin in Wyoming as either 23.6% or 24%, right. Well the New York Times seems to disagree:

"Mr. Obama beat Mrs. Clinton by 23 points."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/09/us/pol itics/09wyoming.html?_r=1&scp=12& ;sq=wyoming+Obama&st=nyt&oref=sl ogin

Can we agree now that to be consistent we need to say that Hillary's win was 9%. We can even say 9.2%. But we can't in fairness call it a 10% win. Agreed?

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Sun May 04, 2008 at 12:54:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So where were you... (none / 0)

They should have said he won by 24%. Now do I get my 10%? :-)

"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."

by LadyEagle on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:20:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

50/50 is a TIE (2.00 / 1)

. not even. 7 votes, even in a destination that has not many voters still is . 02 percent. Hence, that's how it is 50/50

by LindaSFNM on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:55:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 50/50 is a TIE (none / 0)

I'm an Obama supporter and I agree that it's a tie. But not because of the miniscule popular vote spread. But because they both got the same number of delegates out of the contest. That's the only metric that matters.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:41:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I am guessing that it is the POPULAR (none / 0)

vote that matters to the Super Delegates and that's got to make Obama followers very nervous!

by macmcd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:05:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I am guessing that it is the POPULAR (none / 0)

Yeah, shaking in our boots. Supers don't seem to care so far, as Obama continues to kill her in supers. Can you name one defection from Obama to Clinton?

Besides, you realize that a real popular vote win is impossible with so few states left. It'd be hilarious if Hillary relied on popular vote totals from Puerto Rico (who, if you weren't aware, don't vote in the general election) to create a claim of legitimacy in this contest.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:22:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama's saving his 11 point win for November. (none / 0)

by dystopianfuturetoday on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:00:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In which state... (2.00 / 2)

Outside of Illinois?

No way, no how, no McCain! :-)

by atdleft on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:06:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's saving his 11 point win for November. (none / 0)

Please......be serious!

by NHLight on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:14:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

His problem is that if he were to be able (1.00 / 1)

to "game" this nomination, I would donate to and work for McCain. And I am only one of many long-time and loyal Democrats who will NEVER vote for Obama because he has been willing to use racism to gain the black vote in this country.

by macmcd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:07:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You are a child. (none / 0)

by dystopianfuturetoday on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:38:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: His problem is that if he were to be able (none / 0)

Care to criticize Hillary for using sexism to win the female vote in this country.

"On Thursday, the senator returned to her all-female alma mater, Wellesley College, and called it a place that taught her to compete "in the ALL BOYS CLUB of presidential politics."

http://billonotes.wordpress.com/2007/

"In a conversation with two Democratic allies, she compared the situation to the "BIG BOYS" trying to bully a woman, according to interviews with them."

http://the-osterley-times.blogspot.com/2 008/03/hillary-big-boys-are-bullying-wom an.html

If Obama had said that politics was a white mans game or that white people were trying to drive him out of the election, no doubt he would be labelled a racist, no?

by DreamsOfABlueNation on Sun May 04, 2008 at 02:21:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (none / 0)

Um, if one person is ahead, that's called a win. Please stop with the rule changing. It's close. It's really close. Maybe she'll win in a recount, but it ain't a tie.

If we were five year olds playing soccer, I'm all about the tie. We're not. He won, say congratulations to both candidates for a battle not quite fought and move on.

by niksder on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:55:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 1)

Obama spreadsheet predicted a delegate split.

Guess what happened?

by Bobby Obama on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:42:21 PM EST

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 2)

well, that settles it. we're ALL happy with the results ;-)

by campskunk on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:51:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (none / 0)

Yeah, we are. They tied, so you guys think that helps you because you still think expectations games matter. And we're happy because we're looking at delegates. 4 more delegates gone and the gap in delegates remains the same. Yep, we're holding onto the ball, but we're doing it with an insurmountable lead.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:38:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 1)

A 7-vote win is still a win, but Obama should still be shaken a bit by the outcome.

Ulimately, the fact, that Obama could pay for 3 staffers to work the islands for a month whereas Clinton could not, is the basic difference. C.R.E.A.M.

by blueflorida on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:51:39 PM EST

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 1)

The party chairwoman, Pilar Lujan, said she would support the winner of the caucus. So if that 7-vote win stands, that`s another superdelegate for Obama.

by Gabbo on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:05:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (none / 0)

Hey, it's not all a loss...look at it this way, the three staffers got a vacation!

by NHLight on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:15:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (none / 0)

Yeah, they should be shaken because as goes Guam goes ....Guam.

by niksder on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:56:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 2)

Obama 50.07
Clintn 49.92

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:56:46 PM EST

There is no such thing as a tie in an actual (none / 0)

election. There is no margin of error in a real election. No virtual ties. Sorry.

by BlueGAinDC on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:58:06 PM EST

Re: There is no such thing as a tie in an actual (none / 0)

Unless of course, it actually IS a tie, which this was not.

by BlueGAinDC on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There is no such thing as a tie in an actual (2.00 / 1)

Really because i have been told many times that BO won TX but he lost the popular vote? So which is it.

david

by giusd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:37:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There is no such thing as a tie in an actual (2.00 / 1)

He won TX in delegates and lost the popular vote. That's not a tie, it's winning one thing and losing another.

If this diary was about delegates, then sure, there was a tie in pledged delegates. But NH was a tie in delegates, too, but no one called it that.

by BlueGAinDC on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:05:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There is no such thing as a tie in an actual (none / 0)

That's why we as Obama supporters should consider this a tie. It IS about delegates.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:39:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well He WON more delegates today.. (none / 0)

2-2 pledged

and 2 more SD's from Guam fro a total of 5 SD's today for Obama and 1 for HRC.

I can see Lake Erie from where I live, so can I please run the Navy?

by hootie4170 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:12:01 PM EST

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 3)

Good performance by HRC. She doesn't have any office there. Obama does. He also saturated the TV ads.

So HRC still pinned Obama down at his place.

by JoeySky18 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:12:02 PM EST

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (none / 0)

If Guam was a tie, then I assume that New Hampshire -- where both candidates received the same number of pledged delegates -- was not a Clinton win but a tie; that Nevada and Texas were not Clinton wins but Obama wins because Obama received more pledged delegates than Clinton.

Let's keep our arguments consistent.

by Brad G on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:15:39 PM EST

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (none / 0)

Yep, Guam is a tie, NH was a tie, and Nevada and Texas were Obama wins. It is about delegates.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:40:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 2)

Go Hillary--She can do as much with far less money. This woman is amazing....

by The Smoldering Crone on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:31:52 PM EST

Obama didn't 'predict' an 11% win (none / 0)

Some leaked spreadsheet. WHo know who made that spreadsheet; it could well be a precocious college intern that was playing with some numbers and circulated his spreadsheet and that may have leaked out. Who knows?

And, Obama won Guam by 7 votes. Period.

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:38:52 PM EST

Re: Obama didn't 'predict' an 11% win (none / 0)

For the most part, that spread sheet was dead on until recently.

by soyousay on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama didn't 'predict' an 11% win (none / 0)

Yeah the credit for the pretty good predictive model/work goes to whichever gal/dude/team made the spreadsheet as does the slight downgrading from the recent deviations from it.

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:00:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama didn't 'predict' an 11% win (none / 0)

Wait for the recount.

"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."

by LadyEagle on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:27:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 2)

4 more delegates gone, no closer to Barack. The nomination continues to slip farther and farther out of her hands.

by Pragmatic Left on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:13:25 PM EST

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (none / 0)

I can't believe people are even talking about this.

Who cares?

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:28:29 PM EST

7 is a higher number than 0 (none / 0)

I can't believe we are having this argument.

by optimusprime on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:39:25 PM EST

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (2.00 / 1)

What happened? Was he caught in SanFrancisco making a statement about the people of Guam being bitter....?

by Scotch on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:46:53 PM EST

Interesting (none / 0)

Guam is about as split as the rest of the country to date.

by reggie44pride on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:45:05 PM EST

Re: Guam is a TIE for Hillary and Obama!!! (none / 0)

I know a little about Guam (military child) Very high numbers of military and lots of retired military. In the on-line conversations I have had with military friends there is great mis-trust of Obama. Perhaps the troops gave Hillary some help???

by ProudMilitaryMom on Sun May 04, 2008 at 12:21:08 AM EST

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