MyDD :: Harold Ford: Obama has to Win Indiana [Updated]

Harold Ford: Obama has to Win Indiana [Updated]

by TexasDarlin, Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:20:42 PM EST

On April 22nd, as Hillary Clinton's win was declared in Pennsylvania, an L.A. Times blog reported on a statement by Harold Ford Jr. to MSNBC:

Harold Ford Jr. -- not so long ago the rising black politician within Democratic ranks -- now heads an arm of the party that seeks to keep its focus on "middle" America and crafting centrist messages: the Democratic Leadership Council. Often vilified by liberal activists, the DLC sees itself as quintessentially practical.

From that perspective, and in the wake of Hillary Clinton's win in the Pennsylvania primary, Ford just set a political bar for the black politician that surpassed him in prominence.

"You have to win Indiana," Ford told Barack Obama (via an interview on MSNBC). And, Ford added, Obama has to "steamroll" Clinton in the other state with a primary two Tuesdays from now, North Carolina.

The Obama camp will not publicly embrace that equation. But for him to truly regain the momentum he captured during his February surge, most party pros will see Ford's formulation as spot-on.

Interestingly, the Obama campaign released a spreadsheet back in February (mistakenly, they said) predicting results for all primaries and caucuses. Many Obama supporters on this and other blogs have since boasted about its accuracy.

Take a look at the spreadsheet...

Today the Clinton campaign sent out a memo to Interested Parties. It reads in part:

MEMO: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?

Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.

Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?

It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana s primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.

The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million -- $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.

Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.

In North Carolina, Tuesdays other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m -- $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.

The Clinton campaign certainly raises some fair questions, especially in light of Obama's shrinking support among the working class, as reported today by the A.P.:

Barack Obama's problem winning votes from working-class whites is showing no sign of going away, and their impression of him is getting worse.

~snip~

The April poll -- conducted before the Pennsylvania contest -- also showed an overwhelming preference for Clinton over Obama among working-class whites. They favored her over him by 39 percentage points, compared to a 10-point Obama lead among white college graduates. Obama also did worse than Clinton among those less-educated voters when matched up against Republican candidate John McCain.

~snip~

"It's the stuff about his preacher ... and the thing he said about Pennsylvania towns, how they turn to religion," Keith Wolfe, 41, a supermarket food stocker from Parkville, Md., said..."I don't think he'd be a really good leader."

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has consolidated her coalition of women, labor households, seniors, Catholics, Jews, blue collar voters, Hispanics, and others -- a winning coalition which has continued to grow stronger since February. In terms of momentum, Hillary is looking like a champion.

Obama's momentum has been fading since February, and he's been falling short of his own expectations. Obama's spreadsheet predicted a 5-point loss in Pennsylvania (Clinton won by nearly 10 points) and an 11-point win in Guam (currently he's winning by 6 points.)

Does Obama have revised projections for Indiana and North Carolina?

UPDATED: Obama won Guam by 7 VOTES, a statistical tie, and a re-count has been announced.

Cross posted at texasdarlin.wordpress.com
The author is unaffiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign.

Tags: obama, clinton, indiana, primary, campaign, predictions, spreadsheet, memo, north carolina, expectations, democratic nomination, election 08 (all tags)

Permalink :: 279 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 10)

It seems that the Obama campaign needs to edit its spreadsheet.

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:21:15 PM EST

thats funny coming from a supporter (2.00 / 7)

of a candidate who said she will win on Super Tuesday

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:22:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: thats funny coming from a supporter (2.00 / 8)

And it's actually pretty amazing how well they called states from so far out.

True, they said they would lose Maine and then got 59% there, but overall - great job, Obama campaign!

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: thats funny coming from a supporter (2.00 / 4)

that's the point, they have been very good, so what's up with now? Of course I'm hoping she'll win by a big margin in both states, but after all it is up to the voters, isn't it?

Hillary - alternative energy

by anna shane on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:44:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, things change (2.00 / 3)

Had the voting environment remained as it was when the spreadsheet was written, I bet it would get the spread about right in Indiana; I suspect that Team Obama never imagined that they would get piled on by McCain, Clinton, Wright, and ABC all at the same time.

You gotta admit, even if it's not enough to take him down, it's going to have an impact.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (2.00 / 1)

I think they did. Barack tried to distance from Wright before he entered the race, and I'm sure he's been worried that the man would try to one-up him, he's known the guy twenty years. And McCain actually can't stand Barack, he'd rather lose to Hillary than win with Barack, those two don't get along at all. I don't think he expected the media to bring up his dirty laundry, they've been kid gloves with him, but he ought to have. He's not special, he's not the only dem that can get positive spins from the press forever. That's why he tried to close it down earlier, by trying to make Hillary bow out. That was his only sure shot. But now it's a tie, and we'll have to see what the voters do. This is democracy.

Hillary - alternative energy

by anna shane on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:28:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (none / 0)

So now we're back to the actual voters. Before with clintonites it was all up to the S.D.'s and now it's up to the voters. Your'right about that. The voters have chosen Obama. One more time. Obama leads in pledged delegates, states won and popular vote. Please explain how hillary has a chance. Her only chance was to win every remaing state by 64-40. She failed to get that margin in Pa. so now her odds are ever greater.

by venician on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:33:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (2.00 / 2)

If you look at an American flag, you will see 50 stars, one for each state.

This fantasy that Obama fans have of only counting 48 states is an intoxicated reality.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:37:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (2.00 / 1)

Yeah and Guam and PR and the Virgin Islands. I mean, the political poetry is nice and all but in the end meaningless

Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome

by kasjogren on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:07:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (2.00 / 2)

Counting Guam, PR, and Virgin Islands while excluding Michigan and Florida is just insult to injury.

The MI/FL issue is really poorly misunderstood by most Americans and it tends to just lurk in the background in the media. Expect that to change in late May.

The public debate will be:

"Count all the votes."

"Suppress voters based on a technicality."

I'll leave it to you decide which sounds more compelling.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:17:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (2.00 / 1)

You're in for a rude awakening if you think the rules committee is going to change their ruling after the race.

by haystax calhoun on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:57:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (none / 0)

Rulings change when new facts arise. No one expected this type of primary when the ruling was initially issued.

Moreover, there are at minimum three more steps to the process if the party wants to suppress MI/FL. There's the RBC at the end of May, followed by the Credentials Committee, and then the Convention itself.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:05:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Rulings change when new facts arise. " (none / 0)

That's a good one. What's your new fact: that your candidate is losing and desperately needs a reverse of the committee's ruling? You can't change what's already been done, unless of course you have a time machine, and a box of pills. But who am I to say, you may indeed have such things in your possession. The fact is, it doesn't matter what happens after the rules were voted on and applied. Your dreaming if you think Hillary gets anything out of this that gives her an advantage.

by haystax calhoun on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:21:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Rulings change when new facts arise. " (none / 0)

It's obvious you don't understand how the delegation penalty rules and procedures work so I can't take this any further with you.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.

by BPK80 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 12:34:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (2.00 / 2)

Counting Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands is alright because they didn't break the rules.

Florida and Michigan will be seated. I've heard from people in those states, they want us to stop calling attention to them and their governments' failure.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

His laundry isn't "dirty." (2.00 / 3)

I don't think he entirely expected the media to get so ridiculously petty.

He was, and remains, prepared for any policy debate.

Not sure where you're getting that it's a "tie." It's not.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:46:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: His laundry isn't "dirty." (2.00 / 1)

no he's not, he says he's looking forward to debates, but doesn't mean it. Why not, they've been petty about Hilary? Why not him? And he's been petty about Hilary too, come to think of it. He needs to grow up? You're saying he isn't good at seeing into the future?

Hillary - alternative energy

by anna shane on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:15:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: His laundry isn't "dirty." (none / 0)

I'm not sure what you're talking about with the debates. He says that he's looking forward to debating McCain on many issues, but he's been pretty clear that the debates with Clinton are reaching the point where they're useless.

Nobody is good at seeing into the future. Unless you have some sort of crystal ball you haven't told us about. If so, I'm looking to get some lottery numbers...

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: His laundry isn't "dirty." (none / 0)

then why are the ratings so high and why do the voters want them. Oregon wants to know what they think about regional issues, how about that? Barack knows he looks like a coward for canceling the last debate he'd agreed to, but he thinks it's smarter to look like a coward than to again look unprepared and irritable. Anyone can debate McCain, shoot I could debate McCain. Hillary is the challenge.

Hillary - alternative energy

by anna shane on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:35:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (2.00 / 1)

Are you implying that Obama is a victim of his own relationship with Rev. Wright?

I think it's unfortunate (to put it mildly) that Obama did nothing to pre-empt the inevitable mess that Wright has caused. Obama is responsible for that, and it could cost the Dems the November election.

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:33:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't lie (2.00 / 2)

You don't think anything relating to Wright is "unfortuante." He's a gift from divine pokemon spirits in the sky for you.

The "Wright mess" was NOT "inevitable." It was largely forgotten until Wright popped up on his own volition. Most sane people figured he'd lay low until after the election, which would be the sane and respectful thing to do.

Obama might have been the victim of his trust in a friend... but that's not a political matter, that's a personal matter. Sane people don't hold Bill Clinton cheating on Hillary against her, after all. It's a personal matter.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:49:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't lie (none / 0)

Sex is one thing. Having a mentor who says the federal government created AIDS to kill black people is more problematic in a president. After all, well-regarded presidents such as JFK were into big-time adultery.

I agree that adultery is a private matter. Calling Wright your mentor is not.

by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:36:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Alright then? (none / 0)

How many presidents had a "mentor" that accused the government of causing AIDS?

None? How do you know it will affect his record, then?

There is no evidence that Obama has, or has ever had, the same views as Wright. It's the same basic situation as your "adultry is a private matter." Church and state are seperate. Wright is not his mentor now, nor is he even his pastor nor even (by this point) his friend. Any further lines you draw between them is beating a dead horse for political advantage.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:52:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alright then? (none / 0)

It's not that Wright's accusations will affect Obama's record (although it does affect his judgement), but that it will be part of the reason Obama can't win the GE.

Church and state SHOULD be separate but they are not. God is all over our money, our state flags, our Congressional record, and on and on.

Wright was declared by Obama himself to be his mentor for 20 years. You can't just walk away from that. Hillary can't walk away from being married to Bill for decades, either. It's nice to say "former" pastor now, but that doesn't help.

Also, the way Obama savaged Wright was pretty nasty.

by Montague on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:17:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't lie (none / 0)

Obama himself said it was a political matter.

"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."

by LadyEagle on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:06:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How do you know that's all it is? (none / 0)

Loyalty to an old friend? Sure, one might have a bigoted old uncle. Does that mean the person gets a free pass if he decides to take his children for weekly sermons from the uncle?

by lombard on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:46:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (none / 0)

True. Considering the pile-on, the fact that he's still standing at all is pretty remarkable.

by mikeinsf on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:38:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, things change (none / 0)

This will have more impact. Indiana voters remember that Indiana lost ground economicly during Bill Clinton's term as president.

Look at this 2002 report is from the Indiana Business Review at Indiana University: Dissecting Indiana's Decline

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:55:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I am guessing it is easier to predict when (2.00 / 4)

you know how low you will stoop in order to win those caucuses. See Pacific John's diary about the Texas caucus. I am so proud of Hillary that she has only asked us to be honest and ethical.

by macmcd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:44:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

right... (2.00 / 3)

those Nevada lawsuits were highly ethical

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:51:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: thats funny coming from a supporter (2.00 / 1)

Points to a well-run campaign by the Obama team, overall. HRC sounded like she ran a kickass campaign too...for 1992.

by clad on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:55:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Did she say that or did (2.00 / 5)

they say she said that? I don't think she did. she may have believed it but that is not the same thingy.

I didn't believe in god before the primaries and I still don't.

by NewHampster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:31:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I am pretty sure (none / 0)

it was like wolfson and penn but I'd have to find the quotes.

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:40:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Did she say that or did (2.00 / 1)

Yeah. She said that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WsPmZ1zD eA

Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: thats funny coming from a supporter (none / 0)

Like my beloved Obama supporters, link please where she said she will win on Super Tuesday?

by Sandeep on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

super tuesday (2.00 / 3)

by Bucky on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:52:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: super tuesday (2.00 / 1)

Thanks. Love the smile from her good buddy George S., the one who went after Obama with those ridiculous questions and who is hosting Clinton's town meeting tomorrow.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:18:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: super tuesday (2.00 / 1)

You mean the same George S. who also invited Obama to participate in a town hall? That one?

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:29:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: thats funny coming from a supporter (none / 0)

sorry - link please. you know the one where she said she would win on super tuesday?

"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that I reach for my feather Boa!" Allen Ginsberg

by canadian gal on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:52:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: thats funny coming from a supporter (2.00 / 2)

Two so far, need any more? I dont know why it would be hard for you to believe she said it though, it is obvious the reason she is losing is because she didn't plan for the long run.

Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome

by kasjogren on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: thats funny coming from a supporter (none / 0)

Hillary did win Super Tuesday. Uhmmm do we need to go through the states again?

by jelyfish on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:16:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: thats funny coming from a supporter (2.00 / 1)

Yes, please go through the states again. Obama got more votes and more delegates (+20) than Hillary did on Super Tuesday.

Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:11:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: thats funny coming from a supporter (none / 0)

Umm, sure, explain that one to me please.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:04:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

she said it will be over on feb 5th (none / 0)

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:20:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (1.80 / 5)

Don't act so stupid, you know that spread sheet is 3 months old.

In January Hillary was sure the campaign would end on Feb. 5th. Care to beat her up for that one?

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:40:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 3)

So you acknowledge that Obama is damaged goods now as compare to the euphoria in Feb?

by Sandeep on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:43:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nobody gets out unscathed (2.00 / 3)

Clinton's negatives are up by 10% since the primary season started. Politics makes bastards of us all.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

That One/Another Fella '08

by Dracomicron on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:59:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 2)

No I don't, and the latest Oregon poll doesn't show it.

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:01:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)

obama is looking pretty in OR while Hillary seems to be "tanking" in Gallup's lastest.

from her "winning" 49 -45 to her "losing" 49-45. 8 point swing in just one week.

by alex100 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 03:15:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Response diary posted: (2.00 / 2)

'It'll be over on Feb 5th' --Hillary Clinton (and McAuliffe)

by NeuvoLiberal, Sat May 03, 2008

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:00:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 1)

Obama has outperformed his spreadsheet by a total of 120+ percentage points! I think he can spare a few.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:03:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)

Yes, Obama is a slow-motion train wreck.

by JFK464 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 08:48:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)

Yeah I know he really underestimated his support in a lot of states he won walking away. He made those 11 contests after Super Tuesday a lot closer on his spreadsheet than they turned out to be.

Oh yeah...he needs to win Indiana because...Hillary said so.

by wengler on Sun May 04, 2008 at 12:44:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I thought this said Harrison Ford at first (2.00 / 2)

and really, that would be more relevant. Ford chairs the DLC. Clinton's a prominent member of it.

Does Dick Durbin get to tell Hillary that she has to win NC?

John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way

by bosdcla14 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:41:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 2)

Every statement I have seen from Ford is that he believes the winner of the NC primary will be the nominee.

Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.

by SFValues on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:22:57 PM EST

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 2)

Did Ford ever win a nomination??

I can see Lake Erie from where I live, so can I please run the Navy?

by hootie4170 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:26:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)

He was a Congressman for ten years, and then became a member of that Oh-so-lonely '06 Class of Democratic electoral losers. Which, of course, made him eminently qualified to lead the DLC. I assume someone nominated him for that position too :)

by kyle in philly on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:21:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)

And to replace Howard Dean at DNC according to Clinton team's Carville.

by The Animal on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:31:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Superdelegates will decide this... (2.00 / 3)

Today...

5 Obama
1 Clinton

Far off from the 70% she must capture...Ruh-Roh.....

I can see Lake Erie from where I live, so can I please run the Navy?

by hootie4170 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:25:24 PM EST

I keep having to remind (2.00 / 3)

my fellow Obama supporters that Obama closing the SD gap should be a secret.

Cause you know the HRC SD avalanche is coming ;)

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:26:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm getting my snowsuit ready... (2.00 / 3)

She's running out of states and SD's, unless she does what Colbert said and create new states.....

I can see Lake Erie from where I live, so can I please run the Navy?

by hootie4170 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:29:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

canada has a few (2.00 / 1)

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:32:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: canada has a few (2.00 / 1)

Yeah but would Canada vote for Hillary? Worldwide Obama's support is even higher than it is in this country. We could let every country in the world vote after our primaries and it wouldn't do Hillary a lick of good, it would just extend Obama's lead further.

by matchles on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:20:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: canada has a few (2.00 / 3)

canada loves hillary!. and this whole worldwide thing is nonsense. yes - people all over the world are watching this election closely and both have a favorite. but to be frank - not a one person i know in canada, australia and in europe would vote for BO. sorry ;(

"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that I reach for my feather Boa!" Allen Ginsberg

by canadian gal on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:58:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: canada has a few (2.00 / 1)

We'll see what happens when Obama starts campaigning there...

--oh wait nm.

by Why Not on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:14:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: canada has a few (none / 0)

I'm English and I would in a heart beat.

by telfish on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:06:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: canada has a few (none / 0)

Not true, I was in Vancouver two weeks ago, and there were a whole bunch of Canadian kids in the bar up at SFU with Obama shirts on. Saw a few cars with Obama stickers on them too, also a couple of girls in store in a mall with Hillary shirts. They both have supporters up here, not just Hillary.

by Kyrial on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:46:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: canada has a few (2.00 / 1)

did ya read my comment? the previous poster claimed the world 'loved' BO - i said that was nonsense. and that i (being a canadian) do not, nor do the people I KNOW from canada, australia, etc - rather the people I KNOW... see below.

"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that I reach for my feather Boa!" Allen Ginsberg

by canadian gal on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: canada has a few (none / 0)

Well everyone I KNOW in Canada, China, Europe, Australia, Thailand and South Africa is for Obama, so I think we are at least even in the "opinions of friends" category. On the other hand, I've yet to see any pages like this for Hillary. Barack Obama's popularity soars - in Germany http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/06/e urope/berlin.php Chinese search engine makes Barack Obama "Person of the month" after high ranking in inquiries http://www.news.com/8301-13577_3-9913951 -36.html Actually, just go here http://www.theworldwantsobama.org/ There are plenty of reports of votes around the world, Obama leading all of them. If you have any instances of worldwide fervor for Hillary by all means link it. I just wasn't able to find any.

by matchles on Sun May 04, 2008 at 03:58:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: canada has a few (none / 0)

Well that previous comment looked hideous, don't know what happened to the formatting.

Anyways, if you don't look at any of the other sites, I thought you'd at least appreciate this.

Seems like Canada isn't Hillary land after all...

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/st ory/CTVNews/20080409/cdns_obama_080409?s _name=&no_ads=

by matchles on Sun May 04, 2008 at 04:03:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: canada has a few (none / 0)

you know the cdn press is like faux news - right? anyway this is the dumbest topic i have ever discussed on here.

"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that I reach for my feather Boa!" Allen Ginsberg

by canadian gal on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:51:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: canada has a few (none / 0)

They weren't the ones doing the poll, they only reported it. It may be a dumb argument but you were the one to reply with hearsay evidence expecting it to be taken as objective.

by matchles on Sun May 04, 2008 at 04:49:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm getting my snowsuit ready... (1.00 / 1)

It's on her spreadsheet:
-Arkansastan (post-obliteration Iran): she gets 100% of the delegates there, or else.

by haystax calhoun on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:11:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But if he ends up taking it (2.00 / 3)

by the SDs what will cry? If she has the popular vote but the party bosses steal it from her will you still cry foul as we heard back in Feb?

I think not because to Obama and Obamatons the end justifies the means.

I didn't believe in god before the primaries and I still don't.

by NewHampster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:33:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

who told she has the popular vote? (none / 0)

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:41:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But if he ends up taking it (2.00 / 2)

Please explain how winning by the rules is "stealing it from her".

by interestedbystander on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:43:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clintstones (2.00 / 1)

Clintstones...Meet the Clintstones....

I can see Lake Erie from where I live, so can I please run the Navy?

by hootie4170 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:46:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But if he ends up taking it (none / 0)

The DEM primary is not based on popular, but a proportional representation using pledged delegates and party leaders. She can win by 500k votes, it wont make a hill of beans if she cant overcome the pledged and super delegate lead. See Carter, Pelosi, Gore and Reid's comments.

'The only people for me are the mad ones, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing ...'

by stryan on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:10:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I keep having to remind (none / 0)

Haha! Maybe she can change her campaign slogan (again!) to "the audacity of denial."

"I'll bite your legs off!" -- HRC 2008!

by username3 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:55:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I keep having to remind (none / 0)

Maybe BO could change his campaign slogan to the audacity of Wright and Farrakah???

david

by giusd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:08:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I keep having to remind (none / 0)

I'll trade ya for a Scaife and a Lewinski.

"I'll bite your legs off!" -- HRC 2008!

by username3 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:15:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I keep having to remind (none / 0)

And i will trade you a bitter and cling to god and guns. And whinning about paying for private paino and dance lesions.

david

by giusd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:16:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I keep having to remind (2.00 / 3)

Here, let me explain how "trade" works: you offer something of yours in exchange for something of mine. So you're suggesting Wright, Farrakhan, bitterness, and God and gun clinginess for just Scaife and Lewinski? As if! You'd better at least throw in a blue dress, 4,000 dead soldiers, an Oregon vote ($40) and a nice bottle of Oregon wine ($40) to make a deal...

"I'll bite your legs off!" -- HRC 2008!

by username3 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:22:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 3)

This Catholic, long time union member is working hard to defeat the corporatist stratus quo candidate Hillary Clinton.

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:34:33 PM EST

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)

THE WINNER OF INDIANA WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF US

by darlene25 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:39:00 PM EST

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 1)

THE WINNER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND OREGON WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF US

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:42:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 2)

THE WINNER OF GUAM WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF US

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:45:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 8)

THE PERSON WHO TYPES IN THE BIGGEST CAPS WILL CHOOSE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE USA.

by interestedbystander on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)

So sayeth the Oracle.

by mikeinsf on Sat May 03, 2008 at 09:06:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Should win? (2.00 / 2)

Clinton should have finished this on 2/5 then.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:41:19 PM EST

Re: Should win? (none / 0)

Obama was supposed to wrap this up in Feb. He didn't and has been on a decline pretty much since then. WI was supposed to be the end of it and he didn't prepare for a post WI campaign. They both made mistakes as far as this has gone.

Obama has said that he will win IN. If you don't want that narrative then you shouldn't be stupid enough to make your spreadsheet public.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:03:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wait, what? (2.00 / 1)

What did you just say? Obama never said he would wrap this up in February. You are getting the candidates confused. He expected this to be a long fight. It was the Queen who thought otherwise.

by sweet potato pie on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wait, what? (none / 0)

Nope, Obama's campaign started calling himself the "presumptive nominee" in Feb.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:23:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wait, what? (2.00 / 1)

um, ok. i don't think "presumptive" so much as "front-runner." and if you think about it, the delegate math has only gotten better for him since then. god, some of you people have blinders on...

by jbill on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:17:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton was the heiress-apparent front-runner (2.00 / 2)

Clinton was the heir apparent front-runner that has been in national Democratic party politics for over 16 years. Obama was the challenger and will remain a challenger until he clinches his pledged delegate victory by 5/20.

"WI was supposed to be the end of it"

Clinton refused to concede despite losing 12 in a row. Had Obama lost 12 in a row, the Clinton camp and pundits would've put pressure on him to withdraw. They didn't apply any real pressure on Clinton to drop out.

"and he didn't prepare for a post WI campaign."

He's been in a situation from around WI where he's been under attack simultaneously from the rightwing (because McCain essentially wrapped it up by then and Obama was in the front on our side, but had not put it away). Facing attacks from both sides (Clinton's esp. damaging "Kitchen and then some" attack strategy) since then plus the non-stop Wrightboating for the last several weeks and the need to keep things as positive as possible (so as not to harm the party beyond repair in Nov), Obama has had a difficult hand to deal with. He's been doing the best he can under the circumstances and will almost certainly clinch a pledged delegate victory and quite likely a popular vote victory as well by 6/3.

"Obama has said that he will win IN. If you don't want that narrative then you shouldn't be stupid enough to make your spreadsheet public."

Well:

'It'll be over on Feb 5th' --Hillary Clinton

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:20:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton was the heiress-apparent front-runner (none / 0)

Who cares about months ago. Why do Obama supporters always go back six months and what was going on then. Even two months ago was before Wright and Ayers burst onto the scene.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:24:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Months ago seemed fine for your comment (2.00 / 1)

Feb 21 WAS 2 months ago.

Be your logical inconsistency be as it may, if HRC wants to go back 35 years to lay claim to the nomination, clearly all of what happened since the nomination began a year and half ago is certainly pertinent and provides the context as well.

"Even two months ago was before Wright and Ayers burst onto the scene."

It's precisely the peddling of such smears by his opponents that has delayed things a bit. It explains why Obama didn't close the gap of 19% that he began with in PA (in a 3/10 Susa poll) further than the 9.3% gap he did manage to get to. Without the smears, he would have stood to clinch his pledged delegate victory by 5/6 instead of 5/20.

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:37:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton was the heiress-apparent front-runner (2.00 / 1)

Why do Clinton people refuse to acknowledge that Obama is winning by every metric?

Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome

by kasjogren on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:27:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton was the heiress-apparent front-runner (none / 0)

Do you remember which diary this is? you know the one using the months old spreadsheet to make a point?

by haystax calhoun on Sat May 03, 2008 at 07:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Should win? (none / 0)

Nah. That's nonsense.

My candidate lost fair and square. So did yours. Get over it and let's kick McSame's ass!

by RLMcCauley on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:03:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'It'll be over on Feb 5th' --Hillary Clinton (2.00 / 3)

Hillary Clinton on This Week - 12/30/07

(@ 7m:10s)
link

And,

"This thing will be over on Feb. 5," campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe assured reporters the day after Clinton's third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses. California, New York, New Jersey and other big Feb. 5 states were "Clinton Country," the thinking went.
link

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:04:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (2.00 / 1)

It is likely that Obama will gain five supers today, vs. one for Clinton. Obama has three already and will likely claim two add-ons from Guam.

Provided that he hangs in on NC, every day that goes by without a major HRC super pick-up - either a trade-off as in recent days or a gain for Obama as today - means her path to the nomination gets harder. By end May, provided Obama wins in NC and in Oregon, it is likely that she will need at least 80% of the remaining supers (how many will there be left?) to leapfrog Obama and gain the nomination.

For Obama the last two weeks have been ugly, but for Clinton the month of May (again assuming Obama takes NC) will be dominated by coverage of her dwindling odds. Eventually the MSM will look past Rev. Wright and catch up to that story.

by Kensingtonbill on Sat May 03, 2008 at 04:41:35 PM EST

So you all think Obama is successfully (1.00 / 1)

buying super delegates; however, I am pretty sure he is only renting them until they get his money. Because in the general election they are all going to want to win and Hillary is the ONLY Democrat who can win over McCain and even the rented SDs know it. They are laughing all the way to the bank.

by macmcd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:06:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Get help (none / 0)

by Bee on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

delusional (none / 0)

really, really delusional.

by jbill on Sat May 03, 2008 at 06:19:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Get Lot's of help quickly (none / 0)

by telfish on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:15:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)

And she's really angered congressional superdelegates with her "you're with us or against us" statements on the gas tax.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:07:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (1.00 / 1)

And he's really angered congressional superdelegates with is "you have to understand that it is cool that i had a anti-american, anti-white, anri-israel pastor" for 20 years. And why BO church gave a career award to Louis Farrahkan.

I wonder how the SD feel about that.

david

by giusd on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:11:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)

Well, given that they have disproportionately flocked to Obama, I think that gives you the answer to that.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:20:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)

You should read Ambinder. The superdelegates are saying that they're going to support him but they know he's unelectable.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:25:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Should Win Indiana (none / 0)