MyDD :: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC

Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC

by pollbuster, Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:23:32 AM EST

For what it's worth and it probably isn't worth much, Barack Obama's once 16 point lead in the Zogby tracking poll is now down to 9 points--46-37. This movement towards Clinton is now in line with the great majority of other polls out at this time.

In indiana Zogby has the race statistically tied, with Obama ahead by one, 43-42. Most other polls out have Clinton ahead by 7-10 points in this state. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/latestpolls/index.html

Tags: Zogby, PPP, SUSA, Gallup (all tags)

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Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

zogby pulls numbers out of his behind .

not worth diarying.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:25:23 AM EST

Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

We need Hillary supporters to get on the phones to NC as much as you can. Seriously, we are understaffed and have little literature, signs, or other resources to work with here. I arrived here late last night from Mnahattan and was immediately placed in a campaign office in a district with 100,000 voters, there is only one paid staffer. I was immediately given keys to the office and the position of volunteer recruiter/coordinator, and I staffed the office alone much of the day so the paid staff could go out to do some voter outreach. We still fiund people here who ask, "Is there an election on Tuesday?"

There are tons of votes out here that are ours for the asking, please, please, help us reach these voters.

Obama has ads running all over the radio, TV, newspapers, getting his voters to the early voting here. We are outspend here by 3 to 1 by him. Please help us make up for it with your phone calls, or visit to help us if you can.

by 07rescue on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:42:19 AM EST
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Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

Hey I would be on the phones tomorrow .

I would be working for her on the ground when the campaign moves closer to my neighborhood . ( Kentucky/WV).

I didn't know they were that undermanned . I would go over to Taylor's and get the word out for tomorrow.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:47:06 AM EST
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Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (2.00 / 1)

I agree with your latter scenario, although most polls are showing Clinton pulling ahead in Indiana. Four polls released yesterday give her an average lead of 8% in Indiana.

I'm not sure what to make of the polling in NC. Didn't the Zogby poll taken yesterday say that he was leading by 16% or there abouts, and now they say 9 today? Other polls are showing an even closer race there.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:27:37 AM EST

Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (2.00 / 1)

The Zogby poll is a 2 day tracking poll. I don't believe he gave the numbers for the second day when he announced that Obama had a 16 point lead, so it's very hard to guess what the numbers were yesterday to bring the lead down to 9. Maybe someone out there that actually would pay real money for a Zogby subscription could fill us in with more details.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:33:44 AM EST
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Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

He didn't give the one-day numbers for either day yesterday. His report last night included the two days of polling - April 30 and May 1. If this poll is in line with others, the April 30 number was a ridiculous +23 number for Obama and May 1 was +9. Then May 2 was also +9. Note that undecideds didn't increase. He clearly had a bogus sample on April 30.

by elrod on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:36:50 AM EST
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Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

But knowing Zogby those 2 day numbers could easily have been the other way around. Don't forget Zogby had Obama up 2 points the Saturday before the election, and then dramatically reversed himself. His numbers are capable of huge unbelievable swings at any time.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:42:26 AM EST
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Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

I meant to say he had him up 2 points the Saturday before the election in Pa.; getting a bit tired, I think I'll call it a night. Good night everyone.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:47:44 AM EST
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Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

If Obama only gets 73% of the AA vote, color me shocked.

That said, I'll take a 9 point lead any day.

Bitter voter for change.

by Hope08 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:27:38 AM EST

Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

Hillary has the same problem, Barack had in PA, she can't break out of the low 40s.

Bitter voter for change.

by Hope08 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:29:59 AM EST
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Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

Exactly. 73-10 among African Americans? That means there are 17 percent undecided among blacks. Where do you think they will go in the end? Here's a hint: Mississippi and Virginia also showed high undecided among blacks in the final polls. And they all went for Obama.

If that 73-10 number turns into 89-11, and Obama polls as well among whites as he is right now, he will win handily.

by elrod on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:34:36 AM EST
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NC is reality; IN is interesting (none / 0)

Zogby simply readjusted his NC poll to reflect reality. There's no way one candidate picks up three and the other loses three in one night. Those numbers move to undecided before going to the other side. My guess is Zogby had a crap survey result from two nights ago that rolled out and this one is more real. But that's still a LOT of undecided voters.

The Obama slight lead in Indiana is interesting because I thought she would pick up points there too. I wonder if the gas tax boondoggle is hurting Clinton there.

by elrod on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:29:06 AM EST

Re: NC is reality; IN is interesting (none / 0)

Yeah the "gas tax boondoggle" is hurting Hillary in the Zogby poll, but doesn't seem to effect the majority of other Indiana polls out there. Very strange, but that's what happens when you give to much credence to Zogby.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:37:46 AM EST
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Re: NC is reality; IN is interesting (none / 0)

Zogby simply readjusted his NC poll to reflect reality

- lol.

In any other business you would be regarded as a loan shark.

And you seem to give credence to his indiana poll .

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:38:46 AM EST
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Re: NC is reality; IN is interesting (none / 0)

Yes, that occurred to me as well.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson

by pollbuster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:43:57 AM EST
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Re: NC is reality; IN is interesting (none / 0)

I think it's Manquench actually. After ABC's report on it, I think the news is spreading around Indiana. We may start to see her numbers decline in the next couple of days b/c of it. I wonder if Stephy is going to ask her about it on Sunday.

John McCain wants you to be poor!

by nklein on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:56:04 AM EST
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Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

Ok so Zogby is Crap! Anyway I disagree with the assessment of voting blocks in NC. Since most Whites are flocking towards Clinton, if she should get 70% or better of those voters, then that contest will be neck and neck.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:52:18 AM EST

Insider Advantage has corrected itself too (none / 0)

This was the famous one showing 44-42 lead for Hillary in NC. Now they're saying 49-44 for BO in NC. Notably, their sample in the new poll included 33% African-American while the previous one showed 25%. I don't think they showed much movement, just a demo correction.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Sat May 03, 2008 at 01:59:00 AM EST

Re: Insider Advantage has corrected itself too (none / 0)

That seems more realistic to me than their prior poll. Here's the link to the new poll:
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/s torylink_52_377.aspx

The articles notes that they weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. Not sure if they did that in their prior poll as the percent of AA participants seemed low.

by markjay on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:45:42 AM EST
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Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (2.00 / 1)

To be fair, I can't give any credit to Zogby's movement to Hillary in NC.

Zobgy is arguably the worst pollster out there. His numbers are random and volatile. Sometimes even his "final poll" is a drastic turnaround from all of his others. Pennsylvania is the best case. He was saying stupid stuff like Hillary + 1% and then the day of the primary, suddenly it was Hillary + 10%.

Zogby got lucky in Pennsylvania. It's like playing the lottery. If you keep picking random numbers, once every so often, you get one that's right.

Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, flirted with McCain for a bit but it just wasn't meant to be.

by BPK80 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 02:32:32 AM EST

Re: Zogby; Obama lead shrinks in NC (none / 0)

This is odd, though not surprising for Zogby. Zogby showed +16 for Obama on a 2-day tracking poll of April 30 to May 1. and then +9 for Obama on a 2-day tracking poll of May 1 to May 2. Since both polls shared May 1 as a common date, we can remove that data as explanatory of the difference, and the entire difference is due to the difference between April 30 and May 2, each of which constituted 1/2 of the two day sample. We can conclude then that Obama's margin was cut by 14 points over the two day period [2 x (16-9)]. That's a heck of a drop.

Or else, as others have suggested, Zogby's just cooking the books.

by markjay on Sat May 03, 2008 at 05:40:35 AM EST