Based upon polling data as expressed at electoral-vote.com on May 29th, Clinton is not only the safer candidate, winning even if only holding states trending weak and strong Democrat for her candidacy, but also showing less downside and more upside in potential electoral college votes.
__
Based upon the May 29th map from electoral-vote.com, a Clinton general election campaign would need to strongly fight in Michigan, a state she won in the primary process (caveat understood) and which has marginally favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections, and that struggle could be lost with success still ensured for the general election.
__
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Cl inton/Maps/May29.html
__
The Clinton campaign would also be wise to protect its slim leads in three states, which it could also loose and still prevail in the general election:
__
* one of which she lost in the primary process but which has marginally favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections (WA);
* one of which she lost in the primary process and which has marginally favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections (MO); and
* one of which she lost in the primary process but which has favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections (CT).
__
The Clinton campaign could also fight for three weakly held McCain states, all of which would also be unnecessary but would allow for a more decisive victory:
__
* one of which she lost in the primary process and which has weakly favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections (CO);
* one of which she lost in the primary process and which has flipped from Democrat to Republican in recent Presidential elections (IA); and
* one of which she lost in the primary process and which has marginally favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections (WI).
Clinton minimum map as of May 29th.
Clinton = 309 vs. McCain = 229
Clinton maximum map as of May 29th.
Clinton = 360 vs. McCain = 178
__
Based upon the May 29th map from electoral-vote.com, an Obama general election campaign would need to strongly fight in Virginia, a state he won in the primary process but which has favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections, and Indiana, a state he lost in the primary process and which has favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections, and those struggles would likely require one win to ensured success for the general election.
__
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Ob ama/Maps/May29.html
__
The Obama campaign would also be wise to protect its slim leads in two states, of which it likely needs both to still prevail in the general election:
__
* one of which he lost in the primary process and which has flipped from Democrat to Republican in recent Presidential elections (NM); and
* one of which he lost in the primary process and which has marginally favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections (OH).
__
The Obama campaign could also fight for four weakly held McCain states, some of which it may need to still prevail in the general election:
__
* one of which he won in the primary process but has marginally favored the Republicans in recent Presidential elections (MO);
* one of which he won in the primary process and which has marginally favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections (WI);
* one of which he lost in the primary process (caveat understood) but which has marginally favored the Democrats in recent Presidential elections (MI); and
* one of which he won in the primary process but has favored Republicans in recent Presidential elections (SC).
Obama minimum map as of May 29th.
Obama = 241 vs. McCain = 297
Obama maximum map as of May 29th.
Obama = 336 vs. McCain = 202
|
|
|
Permalink :: 53 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.