Vote Count and the Will of the Democratic Party

Hillary Clinton maintains that she is the rightful nominee of the Democratic Party.

She bases this claim on the premise that she is the popular vote leader.

Is she the popular vote leader and if she is should we use the popular vote as the measure of the party's will?

Let's look at the numbers; according to Real Clear Politics Obama has 17,596,239 popular votes, while Hillary Clinton has 17,650,671 popular votes. Therefore Clinton has 54,432 vote margin and a claim on the nomination basis on winning the popular vote.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_vote_count.htm l

How can Obama supporters deny Hillary the nomination if she has won more votes without being anti-democratic?

There are two basic reasons for rejecting the popular vote as the measure of party will. If either if these arguments for rejecting Hillary's claim is true then Hillary's claim to "more popular votes" as the reason she is the rightful winner of the nomination is false.

If you care to hear my argument join me after the fold.

1.    The Michigan primary was not a sanctioned by the party.

Michigan sets an unsanctioned primary day. In response the party penalizes Michigan by decertifing its delegation. Obama and Edwards remove their their names from the ballot after being given assurance from the party that the primary won't count. The result is Obama's name was not on the ballot, and Hillary Clinton picked up 328,309 popular votes.

If the same procedures were used in some third world election, no one would call it fair. No one but a Clinton supporter would consider the Michigan primary as a fair measure of the will of the Michigan voters. Many of the same arguments apply to Florida but to a lesser degree as Obama and Edwards were both included on the ballot.

2.  Votes cast at a caucus and votes cast at a primary are not comparable.

States are awarded delegates based on their population and percentage of Democratic voters in the last to presidential election. The bigger your state is and the more people who voted Democratic the more delegated your state gets.

The party leaves it up to each of the states as to how to divide the delegates between candidates within certain rules. Some of those rules include prohibition of winner take all primaries and rules for how delegates are awarded to candidates. Many things are left to the state party to decide such as whether or not the primary will allow voters from outside the party, whether or not to allow registered Republicans to vote in Democratic primaries and whether or not to hold a primary or a caucus.

States chose to have caucuses instead of primaries to save money. Elections are expensive and most years small states don't have much influence over the selection process. That is why many states chose caucuses. Caucuses require fewer locations, fewer poll workers and counters and they have limited hours. As a result they get a much smaller turn out. Caucuses require more of the participant and cost the party less.  Caucuses get lower turn outs because they are designed to get a lower turn out not because of voter apathy.

Suppose there were only two states in the nomination process, Rhode Island and Hawaii. Both states are about the same size and have equal weight in the nomination process.

Hawaii has 20 delegates and Rhode Island has 21 delegates. Hawaii has a caucus and Rhode Island has a primary.

In Hawaii 37,282 Democrats participated in the caucus.  28,347 (76.1%) of them chose Obama. 8,835 (23.7%) chose Hillary Clinton. Obama got over three times as many votes and was awarded 14 of Hawaii's 20 delegates, Hillary got 6 delegates.

Rhode Island has a primary and 183,465 voters turn out. Obama gets 75,316 (40.4%) votes to Hillary's 108,949 (58.4%). Obama gets 8 delegates and Hillary gets 13 delegates.

Total up the delegates and Obama has 22 delegates and Hillary has 19 delegates. Given that Obama won one contest by 53 points and lost another contest by 18 points and both contests were about the same size that seems roughly fair.

Now total up the popular votes, Hillary has 117,784 votes and Obama has 103,663 votes. Look Hillary has the lead even though Hillary lost one contest by 50 points and won the other contest by 18 points. Both states are about the same size. Judged by the popular vote it seems that Hillary has more support from the party. Under this system Rhode Island has 2 times the impact on the race as Hawaii. Is that fair? Should Hillary win just because the contest she won happened to be a caucus?

See it is unfair to count votes from caucus states as if they were primary votes. If all states had primaries then the popular vote might be a valid measure of party will. If all states had caucuses then popular vote might be a valid measure of party will. But as it stands mixing votes from primaries and caucuses as if they were the same only results in meaningless distortion.

Obama did not decide which states would be primary states and which states would be caucus states. There were 11 states that held caucuses (Iowa, Nevada. Idaho, North Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, Hawaii, Colorado, Washington, Minnesota, Alaska, Wyoming, and Maine) Obama won 10 of them. The caucus states awarded 347 delegates. Obama won the caucuses by an average of 40 points and Obama received 224 delegates to Hillary's 115 delegates, yet Obama only gained 280,000 "popular votes." Hillary won Kentucky which has 50 delegates by a 30 point margin and gains 249,000 popular votes. So in one primary Hillary erases nearly all of Obama's margin in popular votes in 11 contests even though Obama had won 10 of those contests by a greater percentage margin and the 11 caucuses were awarded 5.5 times as many delegates.

The net effect of counting caucus votes as if they are primary votes is the diminishment of importance of caucuses by about 80%, even though caucuses are fully sanctioned by party rules. In effect Hillary wants to discount the votes of the 11 states which chose to have caucuses by 80%, how fair is that?

In summary:

Hillary does not have the popular vote lead unless you count Michigan as a fair primary. Even if you counted Michigan as a fair primary it would not be legitimate to count the popular vote as a measure of party will because caucuses are designed to get a much smaller turn out.

If Hillary wants to argue that the party was all wrong and picked the wrong candidate she is free to do so. But is she wants to argue that she is really the one who the rank and file party members chose as witnessed by the popular vote the she is playing fast and loose with the facts because you can't honestly say that Michigan was fair election and even if you could you can't count the votes from caucus states as if they were primary states and get an accurate reading on the will of the party.


Poll
The Popular vote is a fair measure of the will of the Democratic Party in the 2008 nomination process
I am a Clinton Supporter and I say yes.
I am a Clinton Supporter and I say no.
I am an Obama Supporter a I say yes.
I am an Obama Supporter and I say no.
Other.

Votes: 20
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


revise title (none / 0)


_____________
changiness
by lizardbox on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:22:55 PM EST

Re: revise title (none / 0)

Thanks, done.


We shall overcome. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:25:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vote Count and will the of Democratic Party (none / 0)

Well argued!  One quick note, you say there were 11 caucus states but then list 10.  Minnesota is the caucus state you are missing. Im not sure if you figured it into the figures you use afterwards or not.


by WellstoneDem on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:28:46 PM EST

couple other Caucuses missing... (none / 0)

Alaska and Wyoming. New Mexico also has a bit of a funky system, but doesn't really qualify as a caucus by any means.


by Casuist on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:33:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: couple other Caucuses missing... (none / 0)

Please explain.


We shall overcome. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:44:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: couple other Caucuses missing... (none / 0)

New Mexico refers to itself as a caucus... but it's really a closed primary with 184 state polling sites where you show up, file a ballot and leave.

http://www.nmdemocrats.org/ht/a/GetDocum entAction/i/1118155

NM's turnout more or less reflects a closed primary... though it had exceptionally low turnout compared to other states.


by Casuist on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vote Count and the Will of the Democratic Part (2.00 / 2)

If we only really knew the 'will of the Democratic Party'.

Look at Texas, the best most egregious example of what this is all about.

The primary was held and Hillary won the popular vote.  Then a caucus was held afterwards, and as we all know not all voters get to take place in those, smaller groups do, they go off into closed rooms and 'have' it out, assertive opinions overtaking opposing ones, and viola, Obama is the winner of that portion of Texas's vote.  On the same day.  Supposedly with the same voters.

To me, this is the worst example of what is wrong with our system, worse than my vote in Florida having no voice.

We really have no real measure of what the "Democratic Party" wants.  


Hell's bells, even the GOP didn't have to crucify Eisenhower's record in order to make Reagan their 'saint'. We can have two great ones, you know?
by emsprater on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:34:16 PM EST

Re: Vote Count and the Will of the Democratic Part (none / 0)

Were you railing about the injustice of the Texas system before the primaries began, or did your indignation with the process both parties agreed upon begin the day Obama won more delegates than Clinton?


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:36:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vote Count and the Will of the Democratic Part (none / 0)

How many people even KNEW about the idiotic Texas Two step before the Tx primary/caucuses were nearing? I am pretty much a political junkie and I didn't even know about them until maybe with a two weeks leading up to it.


by Mayor McCheese on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:46:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vote Count and the Will of the Democratic Part (none / 0)

Presumably the Clinton campaign knew about the rules of TX back when they filed the papers commencing her run for the WH. And they were fine with the rules back then.

Of course, they probably thought things would have ended long, long before Texas voted. Heck, most of us did.


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:49:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I did (none / 0)

maybe if we paid attention to things other than how much did Lindsay Lohan drink this weekend, we wouldn't be in this situation.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:56:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I did (none / 0)

Most people didn't. It's really a bit of arcane and counterintuitive knowledge.


by Mayor McCheese on Tue May 27, 2008 at 08:39:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How your state (none / 0)

conducts the democratic process and elects it's leaders is arcane and counterintuitive?

No wonder this country is a fucking mess.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 09:20:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vote Count and the Will of the Democratic Part (none / 0)

Actually, like most folks, I didn't know about the two fold process in Texas.  On top of that, I was too busy 'railing' about the mess in Florida, which affected me directly.

Now you want to denigrate me because I didn't 'know' about Texas's  scheming system beforehand, yet I am sure you are probably one of those who holds Florida Democrats responsible for moving the Florida primary and the mess that has caused. I've heard that multiple times here, and folks have no clue about the issue concerning accountability and reliability of the vote that was attached to the bill to move the primary (paper ballots, aka 'paper trail') and the fact that the GOP dominates the gub'ment here.

Go ahead, belittle my commentary, but your 'barbs' don't change the reality that my initial comment is correct: we don't actually 'know' what the will of the Democratic party voters is right now.


Hell's bells, even the GOP didn't have to crucify Eisenhower's record in order to make Reagan their 'saint'. We can have two great ones, you know?
by emsprater on Wed May 28, 2008 at 11:33:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The will of the party (none / 0)

My diary concedes Florida to the Clinton camp as the margin of victory for Clinton has little impact on the contest as it stands.

However, if you have any evidence that the primary date was set against the will of the Democratic Party of Florida, I would love to see that as I have yet to see any that sustains the "Florida Democrats forced to have an unsanctioned primary" argument.

The Democratic nomination process 2008 was agreed upon by the party officers which included a sizable contingent of Hillary Clinton supporters and is defined in this document:

http://a9.g.akamai.net/7/9/8082/v001/dem ocratic1.download.akamai.com/8082/pdfs/2 008delegateselectionrules.pdf

The most pertinent portions to the issues at hand are hear:
See page 16 section 11 A
See page 24 section C 1 a

Now maybe you have a better system in mind, but the agreed upon system is defined in the agreement on the rules.

e are met with the current conflict because Hillary has lost this contest and her only hope of  winning is the attempt to change the rules of the contest to her favor.

As to the will of the party, I have not maintained that I know the will of party and you don't. I have maintained that the popular vote is not a fair measure of the will of the party because it unfairly minimizes impact of caucus states. If you have an argument against that premise I would love to hear it.


We shall overcome. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:44:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vote Count and the Will of the Democratic Part (none / 0)

As far as I remember, there was little difference between the final tally except the winner, maybe an 8 or 10 point difference between the two contests. If you have the specific numbers it would be helpful.

One reason that Obama does better at caucuses is that caucuses eliminate enviable candidates whose supporters tend to gravitate to Obama. Another may be that caucuses may tend to be less attractive to older voters.

Even if you discount the results from the 10 caucuses that Obama won by 10 points or so, the caucuses represent impressive wins for Obama and  a legitimate expression of the will of the party.


We shall overcome. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:43:52 PM EST

Michigan Democrats broke the rules (2.00 / 1)

so did Florida's, New Hampshire's, Iowa's, Nevada's and South Carolina's Democrats break the rules -
if we sanction one or two states, then we should sanction them all - what does that do to your vote and delegate count?
by pan230oh on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:47:52 PM EST

Re: Michigan Democrats broke the rules (none / 0)

The DNC was very clear in it's ruling, which every candidate acknowledged at the beginning (will you conceed this?  I've yet to see a supporter of the popular vote metric conceed that Hillary agreed to this in the beginning of the contest).

If we DON'T penalize them, then the future of Democratic primaries will be even more chaotic.  No question (in my mind).

And the revote options (most of them) put forward were ridiculous.  I think the option of only allowing a revote for those who already voted in the contests was intentionally voter suppression put forward by HRC, knowing it would be shot down, so she could point and say Obama doesn't want to have a fair revote.


by Particle Noun on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:53:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan Democrats broke the rules (none / 0)

Here read the rules.

http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/ 3e5b3bfa1c1718d07f_6rm6bhyc4.pdf
Page 16, section 11 A


We shall overcome. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:04:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vote Count and the Will of the Democratic Part (none / 0)

Excellent Diary.

Without trying to slam even the most vitriolic of Hillary's supporters, I do look forward to (and hope to see) reasoned responses to these arguments.

In my view you can not say:
The system is messed up.  Caucuses are invalid, primaries represent a truer picture of the will of the electorate.  I may agree with you, but that is not how this contest was run.  As many have said, if Popular vote were to have been a viable metric from the get go, we would have seen a very different campaign from the two candidates

I hope some of the more Vocal proponents of the Popular Vote metric will respond here.

I doubt we'll see it, because even if I pretzel myself up, I can't imagine a good counter argument.

I'm open to one though!


by Particle Noun on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:50:25 PM EST

shameless plug... (2.00 / 1)

...my diary here roughly calculates the likely change in "popular vote" in the caucus states based upon the original margin of victory and also adjusting for the difference in support observed for the Texas primary, suggesting the "normalized" popular vote would considerably add to Obama's total (in the realm of 400,000+ votes).

Other, more rigorous studies have found similar results.


by Casuist on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:50:44 PM EST

Re: shameless plug... (none / 0)

Your diary is very illuminating, had I know about it I would have sited it.

I presume you are an Obama supporter.


We shall overcome. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:12:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

quoth The Bride: (2.00 / 1)

You presume correctly. One thing I glossed over which I intend to discuss should I find the time one of these days is that the popular vote metric also fails to normalize, quite dramatically, between open primaries and closed primaries. The summed up votes for Clinton and Obama have ranged between 38% (NM) and 132% (IN) of Kerry's 2004 GE vote. Also, the turnout increases the more the state is contested by both candidates. As a result, the volume of the popular vote has been a bit skewed in the later contests. There is no fundamentally accurate way to measure the popular will in a way that is fair to all the states.


by Casuist on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: quoth The Bride: (none / 0)

The only full proof way to use the popular vote as a measure would be if all states uses the same system. Lacking that the rest is guess work.

Of course there are good guesses and bad guesses.


We shall overcome. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 08:03:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vote Count and the Will of the Democratic Part (none / 0)

The main thing is that including caucus votes without some sort of factoring would distort the results. We can argue about what that factoring should be but at present the Clinton camp is not doing any factoring.


We shall overcome. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:08:36 PM EST

Re: Vote Count and the Will of the Democratic Part (2.00 / 1)

The "popular vote count" and the "will of the Democratic party members" are valid metrics for Superdelegates to decide their final support.

People should consider that Superdelegates need to weigh many factors.  The uppermost has got to be General Election viability.

Things can change quite a bit between now and August and support can swing widely based on factors and events.

A lead in pledged delegates by less than 2% in June does not guarantee the party nomination.

It will be decided in Denver.


by wblynch on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:22:58 PM EST

Who can win in November? (2.00 / 2)

That's the only measure that I can care about.

We can talk about number of pledged delegates or popular votes or anything else you want, but the only thing I care about is which candidate has the better chance of winning the general election. Too much is at stake.

Obama's coalition of liberals and African Americans is not going to carry the election. He loses the big swing states that we need to win the election.

It is fun to pretend that a new coalition can win--that he can redraw the electoral map--but the history of the Democratic Party in nominating these new style politicians that get clobbered is horrendous. Dukakis, McGovern that's what Obama's electoral map will look like. We can't goof this one up. It is just too important this time.


by MediaFreeze on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:53:58 PM EST

Different subject (none / 0)

The intent of this diary was simply to answer the argument that Hillary should be the choice of super delegates because she has the "lead in popular votes."

As to the electability argument IMO either Obama or Hillary would beat McCain. Polls before the convention don't usually mean much, but I realize that is a subjective judgment.


We shall overcome. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 08:09:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's exactly why (none / 0)

I don't want Hillary Clinton to get the nomination. I think once she's the nomninee, she will tank. Obama will tread water, but she will be destroyed. The Republicans have waited eight years to destroy her.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 09:22:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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