Popular votes matter - My rant of the day

I'm just reposting my 2 comments that i made today. I believe these are enough to express my views.

(1)Till Obama officially received the nomination, I'll do my best for Clinton. And when that happens, then i'll do my best for Obama. As for now, the nomination is still going on. Tell me what do you think the narrative will be if 2 mil people showed up in Puerto Rico and Clinton won by 15 points? This will mean that Clinton will officially lead the popular vote regardless whether Michigan is in or not. And i would like to know by then how the Obama campaign will respond. Would they cry foul, take it like a man or try to push Clinton out of the race once more?

This nation is 9 trillion in debt, in 2 wars, manufacturing jobs are moving away, our education is  in bad shape, healthcare cost is escalating and i could go on more and more about the challenges facing the next president. So till Obama clinches the nomination, i'll still contribute and work my max for Clinton and hope that she would bring it all the way to the convention for the sake of this nation.

(2)What i am saying is that regardless of her moves, i'll support her till she loses the nomination then i'll go with the unity. If you want to argue about how democratic Puerto Rico is, i'll argue the same as caucus states. They represent only approximately <5% of the votes possible. So if you want to argue about not counting states, then lets not count those with unfair election method. Rules are rules. You don't cherry picked them. This goes to the superdelegates argument too where they can choose whoever they want to support regardless of popular or delegates. That's what they are for. To make independent judgments.

You have to remember that Obama could not seal the nomination without the superdelegates either. So it's all fair game to me. Plus i'm very in favor of this race going all the way up to the nomination. My argument is that it keeps the news on the democrats all the way till September. And remember one thing, me and many like me vote on issues first, candidate second.

As for Florida and Michigan, the rules are that half the delegates be removed but the DNC has decided to go nuclear on it. And Obama removed his name on Michigan for strategic reasons, just as he tried to remove his name from Florida so don't go bsing to me that he is following the rules. It's all politics, and thus i don't have remorse if he is the nominee because he gamed the system and Clinton failed . But at the moment, i'm in favor of including Florida and Michigan into play and that Obama can have the 45% delegates from Michigan. Just that he has no popular vote from there. It's the rules, so don't talk about how unfair that would be.

As long as Clinton is still in the game, i'm in too. If the DNC wants to go nuclear, then it should also removed Iowa, NC, Nevada and SC. I've traveled alongside the campaign for months and i've learn alot about the geography and demographics of the area to know that Obama has to buck up his electability. The black votes will be at around 12% in the general and there will not be enough to rescue him in NC, Ohio, and Penn.



Display:


Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)

As an Obama supporter, I'm not really sure why people are fighting over the popular vote (barring Michigan). It looks like Sen Clinton has it, give it to her. Certainly PR would put her over the top anyway. The supers will take many things into account to decide the nominee, PV isn't the be-all end-all. The problem with MI is that no matter what Obama did, people who wanted to VOTE for Obama should not be penalized. There are millions of votes in MI that will be doubly disenfranchised, if only their opponent's votes are counted. Finally, unless I am missing something, Obama's camp has been *very careful* not to try to push HRC out. Constant claims otherwise are just fanning the flames. The media IS calling for her to get out, repeatedly, but that's the media.
by Neef on Sun May 25, 2008 at 04:37:33 AM EST

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)


I'm not really sure why people are fighting over the popular vote

...probably because it's a wholly invalid statistic in the way it's being applied... and it is presently being used to perpetuate a primary that has been more acrimonious than is beneficial to the party.

The problem is that we have a completely artificial metric dividing supporters of the two candidates, while appealing to our most essential principles.


It looks like Sen Clinton has it, give it to her.

No, it doesn't.


Certainly PR would put her over the top anyway.

No, it wouldn't.


by Casuist on Sun May 25, 2008 at 04:45:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)


"'Certainly PR would put her over the top anyway.'

No, it wouldn't."

It might if you count Florida, but that's an if I wouldn't be willing to consider, though many would.


by gcensr on Sun May 25, 2008 at 05:38:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

in all honesty... (2.00 / 2)

PR might make up the difference by the Clinton campaign math... but excluding 14 states which chose a valid format and including 2 states in which no campaign took place and in which the voters were informed the elections did not count is not a math that is - in any way - legitimate... even for the sake of argument.

The Clinton math is not just another way of looking at the subject... it is a method by which one willfully distorts the results of the primary campaign.


by Casuist on Sun May 25, 2008 at 05:52:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: in all honesty... (2.00 / 1)

I definitely agree with you in that the popular vote is the most ludicrous metric possible since it basically doesn't count caucus states.

I was just pointing out that Clinton could win the PV if Florida is counted. I would agree that would not mean a damn thing, but Clinton's supporters might not.


by gcensr on Sun May 25, 2008 at 05:56:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Recent votes favor Clinton too... (2.00 / 1)

See this, for example..

Since March 4:

Hillary votes: 6,519,685
Obama votes: 6,007,744
Margin: Hillary +511,941

Hillary pledged delegates: 510
Obama pledged delegates: 495
Margin: Hillary +15 delegates

Hillary contests: 7 (OH, RI, TX, PA, IN, WV, KY)
Obama contests: 6 (VT, WY, MS, GU, NC, OR)

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch ives/2008/05/some_new_data_from_the_clin ton.php

That shows without a doubt that Obama's support has diminshed since his first infatuation with the voters. Many voters have soured on Obama.


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by architek on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:28:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Recent votes favor Clinton too... (none / 0)

That is, without a doubt, your opinion of what that shows.


by futbol dad on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Recent votes favor Clinton too... (none / 0)

Um, no. Obama would now win California if put up against Clinton, and polls have shown for awhile that he would win Michigan.

Obama has not gone "down" in terms of how he has polled in any of the staes you mentioned. If those states had come earlier in the contest, the picture may have been different, but again, results show that Obama performs better as people get to know him.


by rhetoricus on Sun May 25, 2008 at 11:10:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Recent votes favor Clinton too... (none / 0)

You fail Logic 101. The states are very different in character. The later states included most of Appalachia. That explains EVERYTHING (except Hillary marginal primary win in TX).


by elrod on Sun May 25, 2008 at 12:10:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)


i'll argue the same as caucus states. They represent only approximately <5% of the votes possible. So if you want to argue about not counting states, then lets not count those with unfair election method. Rules are rules. You don't cherry picked them. This goes to the superdelegates argument too where they can choose whoever they want to support regardless of popular or delegates. That's what they are for. To make independent judgments.

There is no restriction upon caucus participation that is not also present in the primaries, except in degree of commitment (and in cases like New Mexico and Minnesota to name a few- even less- in that some caucus states allow absentee voting/representation). Finally, the states have been given every right to choose their nomination format. You can set any stock you like by the "popular vote"... but you can't pretend that giving it weight is not a gross injustice to one third of the country. You can't pretend that the race would not have been conducted much differently were this a popular vote race rather than a measure of pledged delegates. Leaving alone the caucuses, it would be undemocratic to add up the raw totals of open and closed primaries while pretending they are equivalent. I respect your feelings on the matter, but I ask you to look back on the race and weigh "popular support" without imposing the bias of fuzzy math. If each of the 14 caucus states had been a primary and one reduced Obama's margin of victory by the change in the Texas contests- you would not be talking about Puerto Rico as a hypothetical savior and Clinton would take no notice of the "popular vote," because Obama's margin of victory would be far outside any artificial, self-serving calculation she might invent.


by Casuist on Sun May 25, 2008 at 04:37:54 AM EST

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (2.00 / 1)

With all respect, the Obama skew in caucuses is so extreme that had those states used primaries instead, Hillary would likely be leading not only in popular vote, but in pledged delegates as well.

We start with Iowa.  Under a primary system, even using your logic from imputing the reverse Texas skew, Hillary would begin the process with a hefty lead in delegates and momentum.  Without Colorado, Minnesota, and Washington state caucuses giving such an outlandish delegate split in favor of Obama, we never would have had a "close race."  Hillary would be far ahead.


Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.
by BPK80 on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:42:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

....nonsense. (none / 0)

To begin with, Edwards would have won Iowa... not Clinton.

Second, subtracting the Texas margin across the board would not make a great deal of sense and is presented here only to illustrate that Obama dominated those states in any measure of popular support. This is confirmed by looking at the Oregon and Wisconsin primaries as an analogue to Washington and Minnesota- Obama was a better fit for those regions and demographics. The notion that primaries in those states would have somehow rescued Clinton from major losses has no basis in reality.


by Casuist on Sun May 25, 2008 at 03:18:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (2.00 / 1)

So far statistics has shown that crossovers on Open Primaries has voted more in favor than Obama than Clinton. So if you want to take that into account, it just means higher PV margin for Clinton.


by stevent on Sun May 25, 2008 at 05:01:55 AM EST

how so? (none / 0)

...that would be assuming that there is a "right way" to select a nominee, rather than "many ways, among which we must normalize."

At any rate, I would be interested to see your source for that. I'd been going to do the calculations myself, but have been too occupied lately.

What nomination format chooses the best person for the job?

What nomination format chooses the person most likely to win the general?

If you know the answer to either question I'd be interested to hear it.


by Casuist on Sun May 25, 2008 at 05:07:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)

There is a difference--crossover votes for Obama intend to stay with him through November. "Operation Chaos" votes, without which Clinton would not have won Texas or Indiana, would not come home to her in Nov.


by rhetoricus on Sun May 25, 2008 at 11:15:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (2.00 / 1)

Actually, while that may be your opinion, neither of your assertions holds any weight as fact even though you try to present them as such.  

I personally know of individuals who crossed over to vote for Barack who have no intention of voting for him in November.  Likewise, I personally know of Republicans who crossed over to vote for Hillary who have every intention and hope of voting for her in the General.  But the reverse of both statements is true as well--to state otherwise would be dishonest on my part.  And to state otherwise is dishonest on your part as well.

And there is no way to validate that Republicans voting in our primaries gave Hillary the Texas and Indiana Primary wins--whether those voters were Operation Chaos Operatives or simply Republicans who like Hillary is impossible to tell, as impossible as it is to determine if those crossing over to vote for Barack are Republican operatives or simply Republicans who like Barack.


HRC: "...not a vote to rush to war--it...puts awesome responsibility in the hands of our President, we say to him 'Use these powers wisely and as a last resort.'"
by ChargedFan on Sun May 25, 2008 at 01:40:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)

And there is no way to validate that Republicans voting in our primaries gave Hillary the Texas and Indiana Primary wins

Yes, there is, in fact. They are called exit polls. Hillary won Indiana by less than 1%. A greater percentage than that told exit pollsters they voted for Hillary and planned to vote McCain in the fall. In Texas, the PV margin was 100K. 125K told exit pollsters they voted Hillary, and would vote McCain in the fall.


by rhetoricus on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:04:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (2.00 / 1)

Source?  That's not in the exit polls I've seen for Indiana or Texas from CNN's site.  Also, does your source look at the reverse--what percentage of Republicans who voted for Barack were still planning to vote for McCain in the fall; and do those figures supposedly include both those who switched solely for the purpose of affecting our outcome for nomination vs. those who would vote for McCain over the other Democratic candidate only if their chosen Democratic candidate was not the nominee?  


HRC: "...not a vote to rush to war--it...puts awesome responsibility in the hands of our President, we say to him 'Use these powers wisely and as a last resort.'"
by ChargedFan on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:26:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)

Why should the DNC have "removed Iowa, NC, Nevada and SC?" I'm assuming you mean NH, not NC.
These 4 states were designated as the first 4 primaries on the DNC calendar. I don't think you are fully-informed.

As for the whole popular vote argument - if that what this was all about then both campaigns would have conducted themselves very differently. That is, states with small populations like Idaho would have been completely ignored and the campaigns would have poured all their money into states like California. And I still don't understand how the popular vote from Puerto Rico will factor in at all when the Superdelegates come to a final decision - with all due respect to PR, how they vote now is irrelevant as they do not participate in the general election.


by GrahamCracker on Sun May 25, 2008 at 05:07:38 AM EST

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)

So I guess if you had been a Republican you'd still be supporting Romney since McCain still is only the "presumptive" nominee. Hey, Romney can still get back in and kick some butt.

Oh, and that going to the convention meme? Obama will have won the pledged delegates by then and as a result his delegates will control the convention. She will go no where.I'm not the least concerned about that, except for her dragging it out so long.

by Becky G on Sun May 25, 2008 at 08:33:59 AM EST

CNN reporting great tenacity from Clinton (none / 0)

She said today

"Ask anybody who is supporting my opponent to please tell you how he gets to the 270 electoral votes that we must have to win," she said. "Every independent analysis that I have seen, some of them done by no friends of Democrats as well as objective news channels, show that I defeat John McCain in key states like Florida, like Ohio, and my opponent does not. Show that I have won states totaling 300 electoral votes. My opponent has won states totaling about 217 electoral votes."


by Molee on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:05:43 AM EST

Pop votes matter -Can't see the wood for the trees (none / 0)

Too many supporters in this race seem to have lost sight of the prize and swayed by campaigns and the press simply cannot see the wood for the trees.

1. Tree...Pledged Delegates  

  1. Tree...Super Delegates
  2. Tree...Popular votes
  3. Tree...Endorsements
  4. Tree...Electoral College projections
  5. Bush...Caucus votes

8. Wood...The most likely candidate to ensure a Democratic win against John McCain


by MalUK on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:08:21 AM EST

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)

Good, then be fair and count all the votes cast in this election, and assume Obama would have won at least 40 percent of the uncommitted votes in Michigan, and he leads in the popular vote

If you want to live and die by the metric du jour, you will die by it

Change the rules, forget the states, the caucuses, the primaries, everything Clinton said about it being "all about delegates' earlier in the campaign, and go with your preferred invented metric that can't even be properly calculated since many caucus states don't report "popular vote" totals -- and Obama STILL wins even by your metrics

And indeed, your whole argument for Clinton's electability is not based on a "popular vote" scenario, but a bogus Rovian electoral vote scenario

Disingenuous, shading over to a lie


by fightbull on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:29:35 AM EST

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)

And to that, that Obama now polls well ahead in MI, so his "40%" would have come with no campaigning whatsoever, when he was still relatively unknown compared to Clinton.


by rhetoricus on Sun May 25, 2008 at 11:13:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)

Good, then be fair and count all the votes cast in this election, and assume Obama would have won at least 40 percent of the uncommitted votes in Michigan, and he leads in the popular vote

If you want to live and die by the metric du jour, you will die by it

Change the rules, forget the states, the caucuses, the primaries, everything Clinton said about it being "all about delegates' earlier in the campaign, and go with your preferred invented metric that can't even be properly calculated since many caucus states don't report "popular vote" totals -- and Obama STILL wins even by your metrics

And indeed, your whole argument for Clinton's electability is not based on a "popular vote" scenario, but a bogus Rovian electoral vote scenario

Disingenuous, shading over to a lie


by fightbull on Sun May 25, 2008 at 10:29:52 AM EST

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)

The Popular vote is what SHOULD have mattered all along....


by nikkid on Sun May 25, 2008 at 12:50:03 PM EST

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (2.00 / 1)

Recommended...and I agree with many of your assertions.  Just one note/question, though, you state support for giving Obama 45% of Michigan's delegates?  Is that intended to represent the entire vote that Clinton did not receive, shown to be 55%?

According to CNN's count for Michigan:

Candidate     Votes     Vote%  
Clinton       328,151   55%
Uncommitted*  237,762   40%    
Kucinich       21,708    4%
Gravel          2,363    0%

Included Obama, Edwards, Biden(?), and Richardson(?)

According even to the MichiganDems voting guide (Source: http://www.michigandems.com/Guide.pdf ),

"7.  The Democratic ballot will have 6 choices: Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Uncommitted, Write-in

8.  A vote for 'uncommitted' is a vote to send delagates to the Democratic National Convention who are not committed or pledged to any candidate. Those delegates can vote for any candidate they choose at the Convention.  

9. Supporters of Joe Biden, John Edwards, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson are urged to vote "uncommitted" instead of writing in their candidates' names because write-in votes for those candidates will not be counted under state law."  

NOTE:  I had been under the impression only three candidates were represented by "uncommitted," but according to CNN's site, both Biden and Richardson had already dropped out of the race prior to Michigan's primary (and this guide was was apparently "finalized" 12/12/07, before either of those candidates had dropped out)--so I'm honestly a little confused as to whom was represented there.  

But regardless, I agree with your basic assertion that Popular Vote should still matter.  In my mind, regardless of convulated primary election delegate assignments, popular vote is and should be the truest representation of "the people's vote."  The fact that the very process allows some states to hold caucuses where a person's "first vote" is never truly known, where some hold "open elections" that allow people of all parties to vote in the "Democratic" primary, and certain candidates own personal choices have prevented such votes from being known in the case of Michigan, all greatly complicate trying to determine just what the popular vote is to date.  Granted, nobody could have probably predicted the situation we would now be in, but *in my mind, all these matters highlights the need for serious election reform.  But perfect or imperfect as it now stands, it seems perfectly reasonable to expect the Superdelegates (who, like it or not, will ultimately be responsible for deciding our candidate) to take a broad view in determining where their support should lie.  And it would seem logical that trying to determine which candidate has the broadest popular support would be critical in trying to select the best candidate to face McCain--it is unfortunate that our process makes it so difficult to determine that support.  Because let's face it, the convoluted practices the Democratic party has chosen to select a candidate have no affect or bearing on the electoral system that will be used to determine our next President come November.  

So, again, I think this whole process highlights the need for serious election reform...and I hope every single member of the DNC takes this into serious consideration for the future.  And in light of the imperfections of the current system (further complicated by some candidates strategic maneuvering), the chosen metric for choosing our candidate has not worked in producing a winner.  So I only hope that all superdelegates (both committed and uncommitted, because we obviously all know that they can change their minds) will keep in mind the ultimate goal of this process--and that, quite simply, is to beat McCain come November.  


HRC: "...not a vote to rush to war--it...puts awesome responsibility in the hands of our President, we say to him 'Use these powers wisely and as a last resort.'"
by ChargedFan on Sun May 25, 2008 at 02:25:27 PM EST

Re: Popular votes matter - My rant of the day (none / 0)

whoops--my intent with the bolding fouled up because of using a "*" to idenify a footnote and not recognizing that in time.  

For some reason, some of my words also disappeared (and dammit, I didn't write this in Word first, so I don't have what I actually typed save anywhere), but that final bit of what's now bolded above should read "highlights the need for serious election reform."


HRC: "...not a vote to rush to war--it...puts awesome responsibility in the hands of our President, we say to him 'Use these powers wisely and as a last resort.'"
by ChargedFan on Sun May 25, 2008 at 02:28:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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