On The Eve Of The General McCain Is Lagging
Every once in a while, I like to put things in perspective.
John McCain has had three months to run unopposed. Since locking up the Republican nomination in February, he's been free to tour the country, pander to his base, and fundraise without much media scrutiny. But as the primary wraps up and the media gets its nose out of the Democratic fight, it's becoming painfully clear McCain hasn't made a lot of the time that was given to him.
Since February, John McCain has been doing two main things: making speeches and raising money. He hasn't been particularly good at either of them.
He's made numerous "big" policy speeches - on topics such as the economy, foreign policy, and the environment - and taken a few choreographed "tours" around the country - his environmental tour, his "forgotten places" tour. By and large, these media events have been received with mixed reviews. His economic proposals have been ridiculed as being half-baked. And his town halls and speeches have been met with hostile crowds.
Overall, McCain has done little of what he was supposed to be doing:
- McCain's fundraising numbers for April were slightly over half of Obama's: $18 million to $31 million.
- In the uncontested Republican primaries, McCain has been subject to a significant protest vote from dissatisfied GOP voters.
- McCain's tracking poll numbers haven't improved against Obama, even without opposition.
There are other troubling indicators, too.
- Over the last week, the vaulted McCain brand has taken a big hit. McCain has had to fire high-profile lobbyists from key positions in his campaign, and is currently re-vetting his entire staff. More resignations are likely.
- McCain has had to reject two pastors who's endorsements he sought, bringing into question his judgement and pissing off religious conservatives.
- It looks like McCain will have a spoiler on the right in the form of libertarian Bob Barr.
- And, as Todd Beeton points out, the sitting Republican President and the Republican nominee can't fill a stadium for a fundraiser in McCain's home town!
The GOP establishment is worried:
In interviews, some party leaders said they were worried about signs of disorder in his campaign, and if the focus in the last several weeks on the prominent role of lobbyists in Mr. McCain's inner circle might undercut the heart of his general election message: that he is a reformer taking on special interests in Washington.
Here's the reality: we are making a dent.
The continuous pressure from the blogs, from citizens, and from liberal organizations like the Center For American Progress and MoveOn.org are beginning to crack the media shell that surrounds McCain. The key point: His brand is weakening. If John McCain wins in November, it will be because of his "character" and his brand. It will mean Americans still believe he's a maverick, and not a two-faced politician who is saying anything to get elected. However, Obama is actually leading McCain as the candidate with "higher personal and ethical standards."
As the general election gets moving, Barack Obama will start using his megaphone to go after John McCain. Democratic surrogates will be doing the same thing. There is no guarantee McCain's going to lose this thing (check out Chris Bowers' map if you don't believe me), but the free ride for McCain just might be over.
He's had three months to get his house in order and it looks like he's sat on his hands. The real fight is starting - it looks like the old man might not be ready.
How about a little celebration, huh?
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