I will never forget election night, November 2000.   I was living overseas, hosting a party for a rowdy Democrats Abroad group.  I'll never forget the ecstasy of Al Gore being declared winner of Florida after a nail-biting night of state-by-state returns.  We cheered and jumped around like kids, dialed up relatives in the US, popped the cork...

Well...you know the rest of the story:  chads, lawsuits, Supreme Court briefs, outrage, heartbreak, regret. Mostly, though, the injustice of it all.

The injustice was wrenching.  Our candidate lost the White House over a handful of votes in the swing state of Florida even though he won more votes nationwide.  There you have it.  Reality sunk in and George Bush moved into Al's house on Pennsylvania Avenue.

That 8-year-old memory has been haunting me lately.   Because the Democratic party is poised to re-enact this farce in a case of tragic irony.  If Barack Obama becomes the nominee, it will be because party officials decide to override the popular vote -- the will of the people --  in favor of a slim lead in pledged delegates.

After the last primary on June 3rd, it's likely that Obama will lead Clinton in pledged delegates by approximately 100 out of  some 3200 total. But Clinton will be the popular vote leader, including caucus states and Florida, even excluding Michigan (where Obama removed his name from the ballot and blocked a re-vote). Following Clinton's net gain of 150,000 votes from Tuesday's contests in Oregon and Kentucky -- Clinton now leads Obama in the popular vote by over 55,000, including caucuses, Florida, and Michigan.

The  Philadelphia Inquirer analyzes the situation:

It is this looming prospect which explains the tremendous pressure Obama partisans and the media are putting on Clinton to drop out of the race. They want her gone now because they understand that she has an excellent chance of finishing as the undisputed people's choice.

Would it matter if Clinton were the undisputed (or even disputed) popular-vote winner? That's hard to say. The question is, matter to whom? The superdelegates will determine the nominee and there's no telling what will sway them. They have no objective criteria from which to make their decisions. But if they were to deny the popular-vote champ the nomination, there is a real question of whether Democratic voters would reconcile themselves to the decision. As it is, much of the talk about Democratic defections in November has been overstated.

Partisan voters almost always come home after their candidate loses. The problem arises when a candidate's supporters believe that their guy (or gal) didn't lose. Expect the chorus calling for Clinton's withdrawal to grow louder over the next week, with people insisting that she has no "path to victory."

Clinton's path is both obvious and simple: Win the popular vote and force Barack Obama and his cheerleaders to explain why that doesn't matter.

(emphasis added)

I agree with this analysis, with one strong exception.  "Talk about Democratic defections" has not been "overstated."  Party members are in denial about the rapidly expanding coalition of McCain Democrats.  Warning: ignore this phenomenon at the party's peril.

Clinton will emerge from the primary season with a compelling case for the nomination based on a healthy popular vote lead.  For Democrats un-afflicted by amnesia, the winner should be the person who gets the most votes.  And thankfully, unlike November 2000, there are superdelegates who can ensure that this time, the people are not cheated.

And one other thing, which is even more important: not only will Hillary Clinton be the peoples' choice, she will also be the strongest candidate against John McCain in the General Election, as noted by a mounting body of analysis based on surveys showing Clinton trouncing McCain in the Electoral Vote count while Obama trails him. What's most impressive about these trends is that Clinton now out-performs both John McCain and Barack Obama in state-by-state GE polls even though the mainstream media is all but ignoring her and acting as if Obama is already the nominee, and even though Obama is acting that way himself!  Imagine -- just imagine -- how Clinton could expand her lead over McCain if that head-to-head contest were the media's sole focus?  Even though Obama gets all the media bias and attention as his party's "presumptive nominee," he's still behind.  Anyone who doubts Clinton's commanding GE advantage is spell-bound by alternative criteria.

So buckle up superdelegates.  It's time to take this task seriously and do the right thing, not just on behalf of the people, but on behalf of our party.  We can take back the White House if you listen to the voters.  They know exactly what they're doing when they give Hillary Clinton decisive victories in GE battleground zones. If the popular vote winner had won in 2000, what a better world we'd have today.

Note:  popular vote and delegate statistics from Real Clear Politics.

Cross posted at TexasDarlin

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Not affiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign