MyDD :: SUSA: Obama +9 in OH, +18 With Edwards as VP

SUSA: Obama +9 in OH, +18 With Edwards as VP

by Philly Ed, Fri May 23, 2008 at 02:55:04 PM EST

Can we stop the electability argument? SUSAs latest poll puts Obama at a +9 in OH against McCain, and as much as EIGHTEEN POINTS ahead of McCain with Edwards.

This is further evidence that so far in every single swing state polled by SUSA, a Obama/Edwards ticket is polling in many cases double of what Obama can do alone.

The matchups that perform better than the baseline are below the fold, and are ALL Obama/Edwards.

O/E beats a McCain/Huck ticket by 12.

O/E beats a McCain/Leiberman ticket also by 12

O/E beats a McCain/Romney ticket by 13.

O/E beats a McCain/Pawlenty ticket by 18!

This is further evidence that at this juncture Edwards is the strongest candidate for the VP slot, and would come with the least baggage. Even as an Obama supporter I would be interested in seeing Obama matchups with Clinton as his VP, but I'm beginning to think Edwards is the man to go with if we're going to be "poll-driven."

Tags: Obama, SUSA (all tags)

Permalink :: 30 Comments :: Post a Comment

That's quite a swing. (none / 0)

These polls are all over the place. I can't trust any of them.

by corph on Fri May 23, 2008 at 02:57:54 PM EST

Re: That's quite a swing. (2.00 / 2)

SUSA has proved its mettle. I betted against them in the past and more often than not I've had the egg on my face.

by Philly Ed on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:02:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

True, but even if they're accurate, (none / 0)

I wonder how useful these polls are six months out. How did 15-20% of the electorate suddenly change their minds? How many of them are even playing attention to the race at all?

by corph on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:06:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: True, but even if they're accurate, (2.00 / 0)

This poll doesn't mention Clinton. Dampens the "Clinton or bust" effect.

The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain

by really not a troll on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:20:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well ya, but only if (none / 0)

you believed that effect would persist anyway. You'd have to be really bitter to cling to that "We need to nominate her/she must be on the ticket/You sexists will be sorry in November" line of reasoning anyway.

by corph on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:25:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's quite a swing. (none / 0)

SUSA has been off the wall a few times too. Let's not forget Indiana and NC, which SUSA predicted would be much more favorable to Clinton.

Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics

by BishopRook on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:58:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not so sure. (none / 0)

I love seeing Obama winning in polls, but the crosstabs on the Ohio poll are really fishy. The 18-34 Demographic seems overrepresented which massively skews the poll in Obama's favor.

18-34 as 31% of likely GE voters seems a bit high.

by Homebrewer on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:11:05 PM EST

Re: Not so sure. (none / 0)

Yes, this is very very high.....

by Jaz on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:34:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not so sure. (none / 0)

No it's not. You're likely thinking about the 17-24 year-old group.

According to the Ohio exit poll, 32% of the voters fell within the 17-39 age group (unfortunately, they didn't separate it exactly where we want it).

by RussTC3 on Fri May 23, 2008 at 04:26:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA: Obama +9 in OH, +18 With Edwards as VP (none / 0)

Ohioans are sick and tired of being screwed by Ratpublicans they helped to elect.

It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama

by Lefty Coaster on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:12:19 PM EST

Big California poll coming out at 5 eastern (none / 0)

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washingt on/2008/05/can-john-mccain.html

It is said to be a shocker.

by katmandu1 on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:12:31 PM EST

Re: Big California poll coming out at 5 eastern (none / 0)

I'm dubious. Ras and PPIC both polled CA recently and got the expected distribution. This sounds like the inevitable 1/20 outlier poll.

The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain

by really not a troll on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:25:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Big California poll coming out at 5 eastern (none / 0)

I'm actually hopeful for some "good" numbers for McCain in California. I'm all for playing rope-a-dope with him wasting his time here.

John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way

by bosdcla14 on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:45:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA: Obama +9 in OH, +18 With Edwards as VP (none / 0)

I love the +9, but I don't care about +18. To me, VP polling is completely meaningless right now because of vast differences in name recognition.

I think Edwards would be a HORRIBLE VP choice for Barack. He needs a big time attack dog, and that's not Edwards.

by sasatlanta on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:15:31 PM EST

Re: SUSA: Obama +9 in OH, +18 With Edwards as VP (none / 0)

Edwards can attack when he wants to. He was noticeably more aggressive in 2008 compared to 2004.

The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain

by really not a troll on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:26:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA: Obama +9 in OH, +18 With Edwards as VP (none / 0)

Yeah, but I think he has a lot of problems:

1) Perception as a loser (fair or unfair)

2) Little experience, just like Obama

3) Cheesy (I'm sorry, he appears cheesy to me, and I like him a lot)

4) Not likely to help carry NC, though maybe if it stays close. I'd rather target Appalachian voters in PA and OH or older folks in FL.

5) I don't think he fits Obama's theme of reconciliation and moving forward. Hillary (my pick) doesn't either, but Hillary brings a lot of other things to the table that Edwards doesn't.

by sasatlanta on Fri May 23, 2008 at 03:45:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA: Obama +9 in OH, +18 With Edwards as VP (2.00 / 2)

Responses:

1. I suppose. But if that's true, that rules out Hillary as VP as well, since she also did not win the primary (unless you're referring to Kerry's loss in the general). If you mean Kerry's loss, I'm fairly certain Kerry would step up and do the right thing and say his loss was his fault, that Edwards helped him a lot, particularly with moderates (who Kerry won 54-44).

True. But I tend to think that VPs should reinforce the message, not address a weakness. Think Clinton/Gore in 1992. And Edwards definitely reinforces "change."
Wow, I don't think he seems cheesy (I feel like a friend of mine who was for Romney and seemed shocked when I told him Romney was a big phony).
He couldn't take NC for Kerry, but I think Obama has a much better chance there and Edwards may be able to put him over the top. Also, watching the interviews with the Appalachian folks, I don't think Obama would win them if he had Jesus Christ as his VP. The Florida point is interesting, I don't have a response.
As I noted, I think Obama's main theme is change, and Edwards fits that. What's interesting is that I think Hillary does fit the sub-theme of reconciliation---he's reconciling with the person who's been his toughest critic over the past 6 months. So I guess on that issue I (the Obama supporter) see Hillary as more fitting a choice than you (the Hillary supporter) do! Will wonders never cease? Anyway, I don't think Edwards fits reconciliation as well as others would, but they were primary opponents. In addition, Edwards said very nice things about Sen. Clinton in his Obama endorsement.

Other points:

Very vetted from 2004 and the current campaign. Hillary has a problem in this area, because as VP every donor to the Clinton Library and Foundation would be probed in a way that has not happened to date.
His campaign this time has been more confrontational and aggressive than it was in 2004. As such, I think he'd be a stronger VP pick (in terms of being attack dog) than last time. I think his previous experience running for Veep also would help him in this regard.
Two surrogates for the price of one- Elizabeth Edwards is a formidable individual (this rationale would of course apply to Hillary as well, although I don't think Elizabeth would bring the negatives of the Clintons).
I think a possibility of doing stuff in the South (although even I'm not convinced of this one). But I do think that Obama will be stronger than Kerry there, and help black turnout. If in addition to that Edwards can appeal to some Southern whites---combined with the fact that McCain has taken it upon himself to start spitting in the faces of pastors he sought to endorse him---I think there's at least a chance of some things opening up in the South.

Full disclosure: when Edwards was in the race, I was undecided between him and Obama. So, I'd personally be extremely excited about this ticket.

John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way

by bosdcla14 on Fri May 23, 2008 at 04:04:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA: Obama +9 in OH, +18 With Edwards as VP (none / 0)

I'm an OBAMA SUPPORTER! I just think Hillary is the best choice for VP!

And, in the end, I like just about all Dems, including Hillary and Edwards.

I know a lot of folks like Edwards on these blogs, but I just don't think he is the right personality to help Obama.

by sasatlanta on Fri May 23, 2008 at 04:17:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA: Obama +9 in OH, +18 With Edwards as VP (none / 0)

Whoops, my bad. Sorry, misread a comment, I apologize. It wasn't meant as an attack.

John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way

by bosdcla14 on Fri May 23, 2008 at 04:17:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]