The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point

I wasn't around a television Tuesday night so I didn't get a sense at all of how the speeches played or what the media was obsessing over in its coverage of election night. So it was interesting to read this from Poblano on Wednesday:

Last night, Barack Obama clinched a majority of pledged delegates excluding Florida and Michigan, as well as under certain Florida/Michigan scenarios. But, in spite of a big win in Oregon and a well-executed speech in Iowa, the milestone did not quite produce the sense of euphoria and closure that his campaign might have been after. The circumstances of the day -- Hillary Clinton's overwhelming margin of victory in Kentucky, the late hour at which Oregon ballot boxes closed, the subdued tone of the evening necessitated by Senator Kennedy's diagnosis, and some relatively effective pushback from the Clinton campaign on the pledged delegate metric -- conspired to prevent that.

Notice the loaded language..."clinched"..."conspired"...he sounds like he actually thinks a majority of pledged delegates means something concrete as opposed to merely psychological. I mean, the Obama talking point was successful to a point; it got covered by traditional media as though it meant something real and even confused NPR's Michelle Norris who conveniently left off the word "pledged" when describing the delegate milestone Obama would reach Tuesday night. Mara Liasson had to correct her.

Now, I'm not saying the milestone is entirely meaningless, all I'm saying is let's call it what it is: a meme pushed out by the Obama camp to influence superdelegates and the media and to manipulate public perception. I can see how psychologically it would have some power, but let's not pretend the Obama campaign wasn't being manipulative; clearly they were hoping hearing "majority" and "delegates" in the same sentence would confuse people into thinking the race had been won and thus make it so. Alas, it was not meant to be, but good try. It's about time they started playing on that playing field.

Look, the second it became clear that pledged delegates alone were not going to win the nomination for either Obama or Clinton, the use of psychological warfare was fair game; it's superdelegates' jobs to be influenced by things like popular vote, majority of pledged delegates and electability and as far as I'm concerned it's the campaigns' jobs to try to use any argument at their disposal to make the case to them.

What I find remarkable is that the same people who are brazenly spinning this Obama talking point are ridiculing the Clinton campaign for spinning theirs.

Again Poblano.

Yes, [Byron York] really did make this argument about Hillary Clinton and the primaries:

There have been four quarters in the Democratic presidential nomination battle. We're late in the fourth quarter now, and when it's over, Hillary Clinton will likely have won three of the quarters -- and won the most votes overall -- but lost the game.

Mr. York? Mr. York? There's a Mr. Wolfson for you on line four.

I'm not saying York was entirely artful about expressing it, but that argument is no more absurd or off limits than the majority of pledged delegates thing. The problem for Hillary Clinton, though, is that it's just the latest argument that they've advanced that will fail to sway the superdelegates into shifting her way.



Display:


It's a delegate race (2.00 / 4)


by Bee on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:37:47 AM EST

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

And both the pledged and the popular vote argument are used as a metric to claim popular support as an argument to sway super delegates.

Having a majority of pledged delegates is helpful in the delegate race but for all other uses an arbitrary number.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:38:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 2)

I think the major objection many people have to this election is that the superdelegates, unelected representatives we've decided to send to our convention with votes for whatever reason, could override the wishes of the regular D(d)emocratic process we've chosen to select our nominee.

The popular vote is an entirely illegitimate (especially as Clinton describes it) means to measure support.  The pledged delegate count is the one legitimate measure.

Besides, even with Michigan and Florida completely counted (which won't happen) Hillary needs 71% of the remaining delegates (pledged and super).  Does she really honestly think that 71% of those supers will buy her bull?


by umcpgreg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:04:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

"The pledged delegate count is the one legitimate measure."

Sez who?


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:17:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (1.66 / 3)

Says the rules of picking our nominee. If you don't like it leave the party. Hillary herself said it was all about delegates until she started to fall behind. What is going on here is atrocious and wouldn't be allowed to happen if Barack Obama was a white candidate.  What Hillary is trying to do now is damn sleazy and is being tolerated because the white powers that be are making a black man who has played by the rules once again have to prove himself.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:25:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 1)

Let's be crystal clear: this has nothing to do with Obama being black, and everything to do with Hillary being Clinton. I would expect her to behave this way regardless of who the opponent was, so let's leave the race card out, shall we?
The Clintons have a long history of being political bulldogs, never quitting even in the face of impossible odds. Her husband tried to redefine sex; I'm not at all surprised Hillary is trying to redefine the rules of this contest.
Honestly, my hat is off to her. She has never given up, even when it was clear she had lost. The party is losing a true warrior in this primary.
Yes. We. Did.
by pneuma on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:47:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good effing riddance. (2.00 / 1)

Cheney's a true warrior too, who's redefined the Vice Presidency and the Constitution.  I'm tired of political warriors.

If she had shown that fighting spirit in Congress, when it came down to the Iraq war, I'd have backed her candidacy from the beginning.

She's a fighter, but for her own political aspirations.


"I'm all for the delegate battle, and now that Obama's campaign is too, I'm all giddy. It's going to be the supers as kingmaker." J.Armstrong 01/19/08
by obscurant on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:32:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Pledge drives often come up short (none / 0)

in fundraising. Peoples circumstances change and pledges disappear.

Its not your 'money' until you get the check and the check clears.


public option=not affordable for middle. It cant cover all affordably, google adverse selection for why
by architek on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 1)

It has nothing to do with Obama's race.  It has everything to do with Hillary being a former First Lady(and the position the Clinton's have had in the party).  If it had been anyone else in Clinton's shoes, they'd have been shown the door a long time ago.


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:47:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Same thing with her supporters? (none / 0)

Working class would have been shown the door a long time ago?


public option=not affordable for middle. It cant cover all affordably, google adverse selection for why
by architek on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:09:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Her supporters are not running for (none / 0)

office, so no, they just do not get to have their candidate elected.


by KLRinLA on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Same thing with her supporters? (none / 0)

I guess you don't remember that the TradMed basically declared McCain the nominee before he had crossed 1150(or whatever the Republican number was) because there was no way that any of the other candidates could reach him .. so they basically ignored Huckabee even though he did win another contest or two .. and he didn't end his campaign right away


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:18:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

The rules of picking our nominee only speak about total delegates. Pledged and supers combined.

There is no mention in the rules what so ever about winning the pledged delegates. none what so ever.

It's as made up as the popular vote total.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:57:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Made up as the popular vote. So then why do we have pledged delegates then? Oh yeah because that is the metric in which we pick our nominee. Period.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:05:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You are absolutely wrong about this (none / 0)

The nominee is the candidate with the majority of TOTAL delegates in a vote taken at the convention. Period.

PART of that total is the number of pledged delegates, but it's simply not correct to say that the number of pledged delegates is the only thing that matters. it is not.

Whether the number of pledged delegates or the number of primary votes has any influence over the superdelegates' positions would be entirely up to them. They can choose to vote for whomever they want, based on whatever criteria they choose.

THOSE are the rules.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:40:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are absolutely wrong about this (none / 0)

You're right, the winner is the person with the majority of total delegates.  The question we've been asking ourselves this whole process though is if we're going to let the will of the people (as represented by elected pledged delegates) be overridden by the will of the party elite.  I don't think it would be wise to do so (and neither do they as they've been coming out strong for Obama for a while now).

But if we're going to talk about legitimate measures of public support, the popular vote has to be considered inferior to the pledged delegate count.  The DNC decided to choose its nominee in 2008 by holding a series of elections and caucuses.  It then decided that each state was allotted a certain number of delegates relative to its population and past Democratic vote.  The delegates would be chosen in these contests and would then vote for the nominee based on the results of the caucuses and primaries.  Those were the rules.  The will of the people would be represented by delegates elected in a series of caucuses and primaries.  That's the way both campaigns set up their operations, chose to campaign and based their strategies on.  That's the way all the states chose to hold their individual contests.  If we had said at the beginning the will of the people would be represented by a popular vote, not a single state ('cept maybe elitist Iowa) would have held a caucus as their voice would matter far less than if they held a primary.  All states would have opened up their contests to as many voters as possible (including Republicans, Germans, aliens) to expand their individual influence.

I'm just saying, if we're going to make rules.  Let's stick by them.  We decided at the beginning that the people's say in the election (albeit that isn't the total say in the election - we do have superdelegates) would be represented by DELEGATES not a pure popular vote total.


by umcpgreg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:22:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are absolutely wrong about this (none / 0)

And I don't think anyone (including me) is disagreeing with you. The delegates elected in the state contests will have their say at the convention. Is anyone disputing that?

However, those delegates will not be enough to secure the nomination for either candidate (this also is according to the rules). Therefore, the superdelegates will also have their say. And THEY get to vote however they choose, based on whatever criteria they choose. The Clinton campaign is trying to convince the supers that they should consider her popular support in deciding how they will vote.

Had the primary votes been more decisive, say, with one candidate getting 3/4 of the pledged delegates, we wouldn't be having this conversation. But the fact is that it is split very closely, and the supers wil have to make a choice.

Personally, I hope they choose Clinton, but I will be solidly behind whoever the Democratic nominee should be.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:45:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Historically there have been a LOT of these fights (none / 0)

Sometimes a candidate goes to the convention with lots of delegates, but not enough to win, and someone else walks away with the nomination.

Thats reality, that the way its always been.

its not something new.


public option=not affordable for middle. It cant cover all affordably, google adverse selection for why
by architek on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:27:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Historically there have been a LOT of these fi (none / 0)

Not since we've introduced national campaigns.

It used to be that unpledged delegates made up the vast majority of the convention and that it was sheer impossible to win on first ballot.

I think only Byrd, Kennedy and Inouye might remember how a platform fights actually works.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:26:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You guys are both right, I think the remaining (2.00 / 1)

issue is how you calculate "popular vote".  Because the way Hillary calculates it is completely unfair, she takes the meaning severly literal in saying, I am winning in the number of Americans that have voted for me...which is true, but as we know, means not including caucases, no MI votes to Obama, etc.  That is fucking stupid because it doesn'represent the will of the people, therefore, Obama supporters like me get angry when such nonsense is used as a metric.  You cannot use a real popular vote metric since it is impossible to be accurate.

If all states had primaries and no caucases, then Hillary could legitimately use this argument.  SInce that is not the system, it doesn't fly


by KLRinLA on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guys are both right, I think the remaining (none / 0)

That's not an issue either. It really doesn't matter who has more votes in the primaries or caucuses. All that matters is for whom the super delegates cast their votes.

They can choose whatever criteria they want. It could be the phase of the moon or whether they got laid that morning. It's entirely up to them.

I would hope that they will make intelligent decisions based on which candidate they think would be successful in defeating McCain in November, but it's entirely up to them.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:52:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah that is true, but if someone is going to use (none / 0)

certain criteria as an argument for themselves, it should be in good-faith and not misleading and HRC's popular vote theory fails both points


by KLRinLA on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah that is true, but if someone is going to (none / 0)

I don't think we really need to be worried about the supers being misled by candidate's spin. This is, on all counts, hair splitting.

I'd think (hope) that the supers would be looking at things like the electoral map when they make their decisions.

This is, after all, about winning in November. If it's about anything else, we've all been ripped off.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:24:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yup and a sure fire way to win in November is (none / 0)

to support the voters decision, and that would be Obama.  This will be a large factor for consideration


by KLRinLA on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:18:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yup and a sure fire way to win in November is (none / 0)

Sure fire? Maybe, maybe not.

I surely hope there are people running the general campaign who are smarter than I am. But I'm not feeling too comfortable about that.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:29:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 1)

The question you need to ask yourself is why we have Super Delegates. If the pledged delegate winner is automatically the winner, what reason is there for Super Delegates? The answer is obvious--the Super Delegates only possible function is to override the winner of the pledged delegates.


by bouvougan on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:00:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

No we don't.

We chose our nominee based on their delegates total. That total is consist out of their pledged and super delegate count.

Both have equal status at the convention and officially their only only differce is how they gain their credentionals.

Obama is leading both with pledged and super delegates and will be our nominee because we will win more then half of all pledged and super delegates.

Winning half of pledged delegates is a sure sign of having it in the bag but has no official status what so ever according to the rules.

Again, I champion the popular vote along side the pledged delegate metric as an indicator who we democrats want as our nominee. Both show that Senator Obama is the preffered choice.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:03:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Aren't you tired of crying racist to manipulate your point?

Its tired. Really.


by devoted1 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:17:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Compared to the constant cries of sexism here, I'd call it pretty refreshing.


by leftneck on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:59:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Name a presidential primary where the popular vote decided the outcome. I know, Hillary is special and she requires new rules.


by kitebro on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:55:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Each and every one of them? Just like all of them were also won by pledged delegate count.

There has never been a single nominee that didn't win the pledged, the popular vote and the supers.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:01:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

That's a disingenuous response.

It's like saying they won because they had two feet, also a condition met by every previous winner.

It may be true that every previous winner had the higher popular vote, but that's not why they won, because the race isn't based on that.


by forethought on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:38:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

True, the race is won bij earning the most delegates. not half the pledged, or the popular vote. But please think about the total conversation appropriate here.

"The pledged delegate count is the one legitimate measure." Sez who?
Name a presidential primary where the popular vote decided the outcome. I know, Hillary is special and she requires new rules.
Each and every one of them? Just like all of them were also won by pledged delegate count.

There has never been a single nominee that didn't win the pledged, the popular vote and the supers.

The point here is that there are two equally valid metrics for deciding who has the support of the populace. And that the popular vote has been as relevant as the pledged delegates.

I could have said so more elegant but I thought that is clear enough that I thought the popular and the pledged delegate metric are both unofficial and good predictors of the popular preference.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:51:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

The delegate count is all that matters. Nothing else does.


by kitebro on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:29:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Depends if the candidate just wants to win the nomination or also wants to actually become president.

I'd like to think Obama want to actually win the job.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:18:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

He will. He knows how to campaign. Hillary doesn't. She could cry about different metrics after the general. It wouldn't help then, either.


by kitebro on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:34:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But they're not (none / 0)

"equally valid."  I'll give two good reasons:

1. Pledged delegate count is directly 80% of the actual thing that decides the nomination.  In fact, if you get enough, you don't even need any of the rest, and PDs can do it all on their own.  It doesn't matter how many popular votes you get -- how many delegates are assigned as a result of that is the only thing that matters.

2. As we well know, "one popular vote" is by no means the same thing in terms of delegates, by design.  Not to mention there's contention on how even to count "popular votes."  That gives a high measure to the dubiousness of its validity.

Frankly, the superdelegates can choose however they want, as pretty much everyone's agreed.  And anyone who thinks the narrow "popular vote" metric that's been pushed on some weeks by the Clinton campaign is going to drive their choice is really not in tune with reality.  The thing that bothers me is that the more and harder this is pushed, the more that Senator Clinton is instilling an idea that Obama's victory will be in some way illegitimate, and that that feeling will carry on past whenever it is she concedes and endorses, weakening the eventual ticket.


by Rorgg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:19:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 1)

There has never been a single nominee that didn't win the pledged, the popular vote and the supers.

Adlai Stevenson.  Both in 1952 and 1956 Estes Kefauver won the popular vote.  (And Kefauver would have been a far superior nominee.)


Read Brian's Utah Weblog
by Brian Watkins on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:52:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

While still under the party boss system. Almost as different a system possible. Of course, you're right, I should have qualified that I meant since the nomination chance that went in effect in '72 and  national campaigns started.

But good catch.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:15:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Ah,, the rules of the DNC, I think that's who. Listen, these are the rules everybody agreed upon and I tell you what, what turned a ton of HRC people off is this total, aka Bosnia tale type flip flop HRC has on this Fla/Mich mess. No doubt, if HRC and her camp were to say: "no Fla and Mich should not count, we all agreed to that, I understand if they did I'd be in a bette position but it's not honorable." Imagine how much more popular she'd be.


by Roberto on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:31:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

"Ah,, the rules of the DNC, I think that's who"

Well, you think wrong. The rules of the DNC say that the pledged delegates vote at the convention and so do the super delegates. It is the TOTAL of the two groups that decides the nominee.

This has nothing to do with anything Clinton said or didn't say, it doesn't have anything to do with how popular either candidate is, it only has to do with counting the TOTAL of the pledged and super delegates at the convention.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:58:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

dude your arguing with yourself I voted for HIllary, however it is a fact that if Obama is denied the nomination the African American Community WILL NOT VOTE FOR HER AND WE WILL LOSE. This is a fact, so we should just quit the crap, let the primary season play out and then back Obama.


by Roberto on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:16:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Really? (none / 0)

Roberto speaks for the AA community? From where do you get your facts?


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:55:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

AHHHHH, but what you're forgetting is that, if Hillary Clinton is denied the nomination, ALL 30 of the posters at No Quarter will not vote for Obama, and THEN ... we will .... still win.  :-)

Unless the super duper double top secret Michelle Obama "whitey" tape comes out, then LOOK OUT.... Obama will have to explain.... what ...  that his wife once said some things in a fit of passion based on her experiences in the world ... which roughly correspond to what likely all 30 of the posters at No Quarter have said about black people at times in their own pasts.  :-)

Some things that show a somewhat distorted perspective of the workd based on our perceptions and experiences in it.  Hmmm, just like all those folks who are taking all the misogyny and hardball politics of the Dem primary so personally, projecting onto Obama,  and will throw a hissy fit by voting McCain in the election....  interesting.


by funknjunk on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:06:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 1)

Clinton says she won it while she didn't. So yes, her version is clearly illigitimate. And I don't care what she beliefs as I'm supporting Obama.

But blankly stated that the popular vote metric is illigitimate in an election while the pledged delegate count is the one legitimate measure without anything to back it up is without a doubt beyond silly.

Right now your point is: the pledged delegates are the legitimate metric because I say so.

Reality doesn't work that way.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:21:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

No, I think the pledged delegates are a valid metric because

(a) it is the only metric consistent across all primaries and caucuses (the problem with the popular vote argument)

(b) I like Obama more than Clinton ;)


John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country
by minnesotaryan on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:37:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Thats the reason I want the nominee to win in both categories.

Delegates are more fixed metric with an more accurate count but feature several distortions like awards for late contests, a bias for certain areas over the other, and a large rounding error because they're awarded per district instead state wide.

The popular vote is a more accurate and direct expression of the popular sentiment but features distortion because of the caucus and primary difference and has an uncertaincy factor based upon the fact that we have to make an educated guess for several contests didn't hold tallies and one that didn't have a major candidate on the rolls.

Combine both and they average out perfectly.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:52:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

missed the first sentence:

I actually agree on point A.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:53:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is a nomination, not an election (none / 0)

The problem with using the popular vote as an argument is that different states are selecting delegates by different means.  You can't add caucus results to primary results and simply pretend they share a common denominator in the whole 'will of the people' metric.  Sure, Clinton would run a closer race in many of those caucus states if they had been primaries, but Obama would likely still have won most of them, and the larger turn-out numbers could mean he would just be farther ahead in the popular vote totals.  We have no way of knowing for certain.

The whole point of selecting delegates is that they provide the conversion factor between primary/caucus votes and the 'will of the people' for each state.  All sorts of adjustments are made for the state's position in the schedule, their impact in the general election, and various local factors.  You can certainly argue that the current system is overly complicated and needs to be reformed, but pretending that you can just add up the numbers and get a 'popular vote total' that somehow maps well to 'the will of the people' is just silly.  Heck, I'm not even sure the delegate count does that, but it probably gets closer and it at least falls under the currently accepted rules.

Peace


by protothad on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:20:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is a nomination, not an election (2.00 / 1)

Actually while I think it's possible that if the caucusses would have been closer in percentage if they had been primaries I think it's clear that the total amount of votes would have increased enough to make sure Obama had a stable vote lead compared to now or even increased his advantage.

So while the different system do faul up the count, it seems clear that the winner of the popular vote would remain senator Obama.

And I personally belief that those adjustments (outside rewarding delegates on how many total democrats the state has) in delegate count are good for the representation of states towards the convention and having say in how the party is run they do polute the popular preference. A delegate can represent a vast difference amount of people all across the board.

I'm not arguing for using the one over the other, I'm arguing that both are valid and that both should be used to gage popular support. Personal preference for a candidate doesn't come into it as they both point to the same candidate.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:02:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Heres some mojo... (none / 0)

just for debating your point in a rational and civil manner.  :)

Peace


by protothad on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:23:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

the popular vote is relevant.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:45:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

The popular vote is not relevant because a few caucus states(like Iowa and Nevada .. plus I believe 2 others), never put out their vote totals(only percentages).  So how do you count popular votes when those states are missing?


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:48:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

Something no one ever wants to respond too.


by Lit Up on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:16:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

I've anwered this several times already.

You simply make an estimate for those states. As long as a candidate has a lead outside any reasonable margin of error he has won the popular vote. If not then the metric doesn't work and you simply rely solely on the pledged delegate metric.

senator Obama is leading the popular vote count outside any reasonable margin of error, thus the metric is good indicator alongside the pledged delegates metric.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:08:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (2.00 / 1)

But you haven't made this case: who makes the estimate?

Hillary, citing the popular vote, does not include an estimate from the caucus states.  THAT, to me, makes it invalid.  You COULD reasonably measure it, but until we have the agreed-upon official (I do trust you on this, Ernst) and HRC abandons the loony assertion that no estimate should be included, discussing the popular vote seems absolutely meaningless.  And if it comes down to a close race, I think you would agree the metric is not worthy.


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:06:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

There is none, just like there is no rule that the pledged delegates are relevant.

That's why I'm arguing that both are equal and that the nominee should win both ideally.

And as far as I know Obama is doing just that.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:04:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

Well I see a lot about delegates in the DNC rules but nothing about the popular vote so I'm guessing the DNC disagrees with you.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:14:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

please reread al my comments. I'm arguing for using both.

First of all we are talking about pledged delegates not all delegates.

second if there are rules about winning hald of the pledged delegates being the representative metric of popular support for a presidental more then popular votes please cite that rule.

If not, I'll guess those rules are about other subjects regarding pledged delegates.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:15:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 2)

Well the majority of pledge delegates is relevant because some superdelegates have said they would vote for the winner of the pledge delegates. This includes Pelosi and Carter.

But the number to reach to get the majority of the pledge delegates could obviously change on may 31.


by Theis on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:49:47 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

It's true that the Obama's campaign of winning the majority of pledged delegates is, in the end, just a talking point being pushed to the superdelegates. However, it is at least grounded in the reality that the nominee will be chosen by delegates, not who won which states or who has the lead in the popular vote in states that held primaries.
Until the DNC (hopefully by 2008) puts together a more logical way of choosing a candidate, it is what it is. The superdelegates will choose the nominee...no matter what either campaign says, the choice will ultimately not be made by the will of the people.
by GrahamCracker on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:50:08 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I just can't get over this twisted argument by the Clintonistas. Yesterday in Florida Hillary made her demand for counting every vote from Fla and MI to be akin to the Civil rights movement to name just one of several pious comparisons. Then, THEN She and her supporters have the nerve to argue the process is not supposed to honor those voter's votes! The pledged delegates are the people who were chosen by the voters in Caucuses and State primaries. So I can place little stock in this idea coming from the Clinton camp that earning a MAJORITY of Pledged delegate is JUST spin from the Obama camp. Either Votes count or they DON'T. You can't have it both ways guys. Geeesh


by eddieb on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:52:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the will of the people (none / 0)

You say "the choice will ultimately not be made by the will of the people". That statement will only come true if the super delegates listen to Hillary's argument. If the SDs respect the fact that Obama has the Majority of pledged Delegates then they will be following the will of the voters. This is why the fact that Obama has that majority is why it is more than spin aimed at the supers.


by eddieb on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:24:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Posterity (2.00 / 1)

In the event that something goes wrong with the general election, on the bright side at least people who were objective about Hillary's edge in electability will be vindicated.  

I hate GOP principles.  I hated watching the 2004 elections.  It is going to burn me up inside so much when the polls close and they call Florida for McCain early.  Same for Ohio.  And then I'll sit there hoping that the perfect chain of Western states doesn't break and that every single nailbiter blue state turns out exactly as we need it: Wisconsin (Grrr), Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania.


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:53:54 AM EST

Yup, you're right... (2.00 / 2)

Polls show her up by one in Ohio, him down by one.  Clearly, she's more electable in Ohio.  And, all the Clinton forces are also right...she's more electable...the  media loves her, she's handled her money wisely, and she came in second in a race designed to put the inevitable candidate in. And there isn't one thing the Republicans are going to throw at Hillary in the General Election...they adore her and she's immune to scandal.  She's never been the focus of any hatred by the right and her negatives hover around a low 50%.

Look, I've always thought the fact that she was a lightning rod for the other side was one of the good things about her, one of the things which drew me to her...

BUT, this electability notion is such a crock.

And think about this, if he does lose on Election Day are you going to be smug that your candidate and her supporters helped tear him down so we could have 4 more years of the same.


by thurst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:50:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ok, rereading your post... (none / 0)

My response was a bit harsh...

The key word I objected to was objective...your objective is my deluded (and vice versa, i suppose :))


by thurst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:52:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ok, rereading your post... (none / 0)

Ok, thanks for the clarification.

My goal is to see a Democrat win, not to see Obama lose.  


Young lifelong Democrat. One of over 3,000,000 voters who kicked McCain and Palin out of Pennsylvania, permanently.
by BPK80 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:44:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary, the Incredible Shrinking Candidate (none / 0)

Hillary is $19 million in debt, hopelessly behind and further damaging the party's chances in November, but hey this is all about Hillary.


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:50:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary, the Incredible Shrinking Candidate (none / 0)

I'm sorry, but who went negative with the "Bradley Effect" to explain their loss in New Hampshire?


by usedmeat on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:08:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary, the Incredible Shrinking Candidate (none / 0)

Obama never said he lost because of the Bradley Effect. Some journalists felt so but he never said that himself.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:27:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electability (2.00 / 1)

Is a tricky argument, mostly because there's very little evidence anyone can cite that has any real sway. This far out in 2004, Kerry looked pretty darn electable. Dukakis looked like a sure winner for a good portion of 1988 too.

I happen to believe that either Obama or Clinton would destroy McCain this year (which is why they both are fighting so hard to secure the nomination), but that remains to be seen. Also, if either loses, it's not probably--or even likely--that the other would have won.


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:34:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electability (none / 0)

You're right.  I'll take my cue from Howard Wolfson: "This is a race for delegates."  

I'm still confused, however, as to why the Obama campaign insists on counting delegates as if they mean something.


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:00:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electability (none / 0)

Harold Ickes also used to think this was about delegates.  Ask me how I know that.  How can I read Harold Ickes' mind from say, Feb. 1.  Brilliance?  Yes.

And this.

"This is very much a race for delegates at this point," said Ickes...

Feb 1, Financial Express.

So, just a little bit ago when things looked different, it was all about the delegates and not absurd at all.

btw, I bet your Google works just as well as mine.


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:12:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's still a race for delegates (none / 0)

The electability and popular vote arguments offered by Clinton, however debatable, are part of an effort to sway delegates (super and pledged) to support her. In the end, the only thing that will matter is how a majority of all the delegates vote in Denver. As of now, the only thing that is likely to "end" this before Denver is if a clear majority of delegates pick one candidate over the other. It's much more likely that Obama will be the one, but Clinton is still (technically) viable.

Personally, I think we all need to calm down on this issue. Obama supporters (me included) need to be less impatient. Clinton supporters can still be good advocates for their cause(s) but might want to dial back the aggression. It isn't nearly as dire as some want to believe. The republic and the party are not going to fall over this . . . at worst we'll have some bruised egos and broken hearts. More than likely, in 2-3 weeks, this whole thing will be over. It would be great if we could get there still believing that we're among friends.


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:54:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electability (none / 0)

Clancy - completely agree.  You left out that Bill Clinton was running dead last at this point in 1992 behind whack job Ross Perot.

GE polls at this point mean crap.  I don't even start paying attention to them until after Labor Day.


by jmnyc on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:30:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Too late (none / 0)

She's undermined the process so if he loses she'll get blamed.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:46:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 3)

Aside from the total delegate count, there is no metric more relevant than the pledged delegate count.


by dogooder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:58:00 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 3)

Let's see... pledged delegates -- count for something according to the rules, and Obama has been consistent about pushing this metric forward from the start.

Popular vote -- doesn't count for anything, and Clinton only switched to this metric after she had failed at every single other one out there.

So basically, you don't have a leg to stand on.


by Aris Katsaris on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:03:45 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I'm tired of all the talk of the popular vote.

The popular vote metric (no matter which one you choose) matter if and only if super delegates buy in to the logic behind it.

And the way super delegates have been endorsing in the last 3 months suggest that if they buy in to the logic behind the popular vote argument, they believe Obama leads and will be the nominee.


by Theis on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:16:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

The same could be--and was--said for having a majority of the pledged delegates . . . which I think was the point of the post. Both are, of themselves, meaningless, as neither will get someone the nomination. What matters is how effective these talking points are at swaying the remaining supers. The pledged delegate lead/majority just happens to mean that Obama needs to sway fewer superdelegates in order to win the nomination.

I have many problems with Clinton's claims about the popular vote, and the seating of MI & FL based on the January votes, but that doesn't mean that her arguments are totally devoid of logic or moral suasion.


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:58:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

It would help her cause if the popular vote could actually be known.  It can't.  Doesn't exist.  


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:27:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

That is, a complete and accurate measure of the popular vote cannot be known.  Which generally would make such a metric invalid.


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:28:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

Not true.

It only needs a to be accurate enough to differenciate between the candidates. If it's accurate up till a few tenthousand voters it's accurate enough to project who won the metric if the difference is a hundred thousand voters or so.

It's like saying that you can't declare a winner in a race without perfect time measurement even though one candidate has lapped the other.

Even though we don't know the precise number we do know that Obama has confortable lead with a couple hundred thousand voters.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:09:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

Got it.  But isn't there some serious concern with  some caucus states?  How would you divine their popular votes?  HRC's camp says just leave them out.  Doesn't make sense to me.  So if the number doesn't have to be accurate, we'd all have to agree (before the primary/caucus season) how to measure that.  Otherwise it seems chaotic, which could be preferable for a particular team if they wanted the supers to overturn the pledged.


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:28:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

I agree with you that the caucuses should be represented. But it certainly problematic.

Luckily we caught a break here.

The Caucuses states have a strong slant towards Obama, had they been primaries or otherwise larger turn out Obama's popular vote lead whould've only increased.

But still they illustrate perfectly why there certainly is wisdom in using the pledged delegate and popular vote metric along side each other.

This isn't an either/or situation.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:23:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

okay...

So the candidate with the concrete lead in elected delagates should take a back seat to the candidate with a wish-washy pseudo-lead in a category that can't quite be quantified to anyone's satisfaction?


by Lit Up on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:33:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

No, for two reasons. First I'm arguing we should use both.

Second, their both the same candidate.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:17:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

The same could be--and was--said for having a majority of the pledged delegates

...except for the key point that pledged delegates are the only consistent metric across all primary and caucus contests.  I certainly concede that pledged delegates aren't the be all and end all of the primary process, but it is the best way to judge the sum total outcome of the contests.  Had every state held a primary that released it's vote totals, then the popular vote would probably be the most solid metric, but they didn't.

In the end, of course, popular vote and pledged delegates both do mean nothing, but that doesn't mean one isn't a more meaningful metric than the other.


John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country
by minnesotaryan on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:43:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

"Had every state held a primary that released it's vote totals, then the popular vote would probably be the most solid metric, but they didn't."

I disagree because there's a mixture of caucuses, closed primaries, and open primaries that makes the whole thing confusing.  Popular vote in the general makes sense because all of the states vote in the exact same way.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:03:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

minnesotaryan - I actually agree with you on pledged delegates being a fairer metric, I just wanted to point out that this post by Todd wasn't necessarily a value judgment towards one metric or another, simply that they were both talking points, as neither the popular vote nor the pledge delegate majority will secure the nomination (this year). That the latter is a stronger argument, and the former has no formal sanction in the process--well, you'll get no argument from me on either.


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:08:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vindication (2.00 / 5)

 If Obama loses the General Election, it won't be vindication, but it very well may be the product of vindictiveness. Not the same thing.


by xdem on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:03:53 AM EST

Re: Vindication (2.00 / 1)

Well said...


"If you ever post anything on that website again, I will shove a motherboard so far up your a$$...!" C.J Cregg
by JenKinFLA on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:22:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 4)

Todd, I think it's a lot more than psychological.  If either Clinton or Obama were ahead in the pledged delegate count and the superdelegates went in the opposite direction without an extremely good reason for doing so, this would be a serious blow to the party and would be perceived by a large block of our base as a major betrayal.  

For blacks, having their first national viable candidate turned out despite winning the pledged delegate count, would turn them away from supporting us for a generation.  

For women, having our first national candidate be turned away would push some of us out of the party.

The Supers are technically free to vote for whomever they like, but those choices do not come without consequences and the damage they could do the party is major.  This, too, is psychological, but that doesn't make it not real.


I'm only a click away
by juliewolf on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:08:20 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 0)

If women turned away from the party because their first national candidate lost fair and square in an incredibly close race, and therefore handed the presidency to John McCain, who will likely appoint three more John Roberts' type justices, then they have truly earned the title "hysterical". Feminism isn't about voting with your uterus, it is about equal treatment. How more equal can you get than fighting your opponent to a practical tie? I've heard the argument that a more qualified woman is being passed over for a less qualified man, but the only qualification that matters is who the voters want. They are not interviewing for a job; they are running for office.
I am appalled that women that call themselves feminists would vote for a man that called his wife a cunt in front of hundreds of people and explained it away as "having been a long day"; the man who will set their rights back a generation rather than rally behind the man that will champion their cause more than any other. It is obtuse. If women will allow bruised feelings to affect their judgment that badly, then maybe they really aren't cut out for politics, and we are right in withholding the nomination from a woman just because she is a woman.  
Yes. We. Did.
by pneuma on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:10:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

52% of the Presidents since 1919 SHOULD HAVE BEEN (none / 0)

Women..

Thats not a pleasant argument, but its a legally valid one, IF this is an affirmative action argument.

By rights, HALF of the Presidents since 1919 SHOULD have been women.

So how about it!?

(BTW, I'm male.. )


public option=not affordable for middle. It cant cover all affordably, google adverse selection for why
by architek on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:13:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hardly just a talking point (2.00 / 6)

If at the beginning of this campaign Hillary Clinton had said that on Feb 6th she would have the majority of pledged delegates and thus be the winner, nobody would have batted an eye and all other candidates would have been expected to drop out at that point.

What Obama's winning the pledged delegates means is this. He can no longer lose this nomination legitimately. The superdelegates would have to take it from him. They would have to get up at the convention and say, "Congratulations first African-American candidate in history to win the most delegates in the primary election, but we, the party elders, have decided to give the nomination to Hillary." I'd say that would be significant, and consequently this milestone is not only important, but it's a game ender for Hillary.


Your old role is rapidly aging. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times they are a changing.
by Travis Stark on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:10:16 AM EST

Tthat would be a legitimate thing to do if.. (none / 0)

she is winning the popular vote...or if she is obviously more electable..


public option=not affordable for middle. It cant cover all affordably, google adverse selection for why
by architek on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The problem for Clinton (2.00 / 3)

Is that Obama actually HAS a majority of pledged delegates, whereas she does not have a majority of the popular votes.

So, while Obama is telling the truth, Clinton is lying.


John McCain, maverick
by lojasmo on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:22:10 AM EST

Re: The problem for Clinton (2.00 / 1)

And that's the whole point.

I'm actually sick to my stomach to each and every commenter that keeps dissing the popular vote. I actually think the popular vote is extremely important and that Obama has won it.

Pushback should happen at the false statements from Clinton, not at the premise that the popular vote doesn't count. Sometimes I feel it's like 2000 again. But now with Democrats doing their best to fuck the democrats over.

Obama is winning the popular vote, the plegded delegates and the super delegates. Why do our best to ridicule a metric that actually works in his favor?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:49:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The problem for Clinton (none / 0)

Damn. Good point, that.


John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country
by minnesotaryan on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:53:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The problem for Clinton (none / 0)

The reason the popular vote metric is bad for Obama is because it perpetuates confusion.  Instead of talking about the real metric, the delegates, we are discussing something that has no direct effect on the nomination, the popular vote.    


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:57:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The problem for Clinton (none / 0)

But it's out there. By attacking the metric you aren't clearing up confusion, you are creating it.

If somebody claimed to have the most votes and somebody else said to you that that metric should be ignored for another metric even though the popular vote is the best known and most used metric in our elections. What are you going to do?

A lot of people will continue to doubt because according to our normal elections you'd be the winner. To argue for another unsanctioned measurement that exists outside the rule isn't going to change that.

Showing that somebody is lying will destroy doubts far better.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:25:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The problem for Clinton (none / 0)

After all both popular vote and pledged delegates have no official standing in this race.

And while the pledged delegates metric also has points in it's favor. Popular vote is the official decider in most elections for good reason.

abandoning such a well known legitimizer is sheer folly. especially as both metric yield the same winner.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:29:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The problem for Clinton (none / 0)

I said delegates not pledge delegates.  

Also, Clinton fanatics are arguing that there is a way to count the popular vote that give Clinton the lead.  You and I understand this is a flat out bald faced lie, but people who aren't paying as much attention as we are will take Senator Clinton's lies for the truth.  That creates confusion and it hurts Obama.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:43:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The problem for Clinton (none / 0)

Ah my mistake.

Well personally I would like the nominee be the person that most people actuallt want as nominee. So I'm all for using both metrics to influence supers if push comes to shove.

And I agree that Clintons claim are hurtful. Thats why it's also important for Obama supporters to own the popular vote debate, it's simply impossible to make her stop saying that, but it is very possible to show that the popular vote is yet a good reason to support Obama.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:29:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 2)

If the Pelosi Club holds true to their word, the clinching of the pledged delegate majority is very meaningful. That's a good handful of supers swinging into Obama's column, and Pelosi being the most influential of them all. With 49 Representatives outstanding, and a half dozen or so vowing to go to the winner of pledged delegates, it could set off a landslide.


by mikeplugh on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:33:25 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 3)

To say that it's not relevant is breathtaking.

This is the norm by which a nominee clinches the nomination.  Look back at each and every nominating fight and you'll see it.

So discounting this is not only changing the rules in 2008, it's discarding historical precendent.

And for what? A politician who can't distinguish her presidential hopes from the decades long fight to end slavery?  


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:39:33 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

No, doing a barrel role at 300 plus miles per hour is breathtaking, saying a pledged delegate lead is not decisive is merely debatable. Let's drop the hyperbole here.


by bouvougan on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:32:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Bull. Pledged delegates never decided anything on their own.

Name one election since the delegate rule changes where the candiate with the majority pledged delegates didn't also had the popular vote.

Name one candidate that won the nomination while having lost the popular vote.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:57:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

It doesn't matter because at the end of the day the metric is about pledged delegates. Look if you don't like the rules leave the party but the rules are the rules period.  Hillary knew the rules when she decided to run for President and because she is losing doesn't mean that the rules aren't the rules.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:31:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

No it's about total delegates. Super and Pledged.

If you don't know the rules don't try to argue about them.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:30:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Name one election since the delegate rule change that had an election with only one person on the ballot and another where no campaigning was allowed.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:05:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

How does that relate to if plegded delegates or popular vote were ever the norm at conventions on their own?

So far as I can see there is no relevence to your comment, so could you enlighten me?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:37:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

It's relevant because the only way Clinton can be considered ahead in the popular vote is if you count Michigan and Florida.  Ignoring those oddities (and going with the estimate for the states that don't release data), Obama is up about 560k votes.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:42:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

As I've argued all along.

I'm not backing the popular vote because I'm for Clinton. I'm backing Obama because I'm for the popular vote.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:31:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Well then I can't argue much longer, can I? :)

I have issues with the popular vote in a mixed system like the primary - why should open primary states have an advantage over closed? - but ultimately delegate counts and popular vote counts are going to be close enough that it won't really matter that much.

...well unless someone is trying to grab 300k votes while giving her opponent 0.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:36:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 2)

Hillary needs to quit whining and accept defeat. She is setting the cause of woman back. She ran a lousy campaign and lost fair and square.
Based on how they ran their campaigns Obama would be a much better president. He thought the process through planning for an end game.
I have no problem with giving Hillary the Florida votes but not Michigan, no one competed up there and she knew the deal.
Even if she gets the delegates from these states she still won`t beat Obama in delegates. the game is over get off the field Hillary you are just making a fool of yourself. The supers will put an end to this the first of june!
by JOEL1954 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:59:35 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Those uncommitted votes were for Edwards, obama, and the other candidates that took their name off the ballot. Why are you afraid to distribute them according to the other candidates standing in the polls?


by usedmeat on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:15:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Go ahead and distribute them because at the end of the day Hillary is STILL behind. There is no way for her to catch up so I am all for letting her have the delegates.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:33:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

The only thing at stake in the Florida and Michigan situation is the ability of the DNC to control the primary calendar in the future. The outcome of the primary this year is not in doubt.  You can give them zero delegates or give them all their delegates (or the more likely scenario - they get half), and Obama still wins.

The problem is, if states face no penalty for ignoring the DNC calendar, then there will be no way to enforce a reformed calendar in the future. Iowa and New Hampshire will always go first because they can safely ignore threats from the DNC and keep moving their votes up.

Hillary Clinton isn't campaigning to win; she can't win by counting Florida and Michigan. Whether she knows it or not, she's campaigning to prevent reform of the Democratic primary calendar.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:12:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "no more absurd" (2.00 / 3)

On the contrary, it's a patent absurdity to suggest that HRC has "won" 3/4 of the game and yet somehow is going to end up losing, whereas the pledged delegate majority thing is a fact (if you exclude FL and MI, which is the Democratic Party's official position unless and until the Rules Committee decides otherwise). I'm glad Obama didn't declare himself the nominee or whatever as some press speculation had suggested he might; but he clearly will be, whatever is decided about Florida and Michigan, unless the trend of superdelegate endorsements over the last few months is completely reversed and HRC takes the overwhelming majority of the remaining undeclared supers. Clever-clever debating points are just not going to cut it, only some cataclysmic scandal will do for HRC at this 11th hour. If the Obama team have any sense they will agree a generous compromise on the MI and FL delegations, and at that point the Clinton campaign will not even have half a leg left to stand on.


by al1 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:08:43 AM EST

Re: "no more absurd" (none / 0)

They actually did recently and Hillary refused it. - She wants it all.


by Becky G on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:29:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 2)

"But she won three quarters!" is a hilarious concept.  I would have believed that that was from The Onion or something lampooning the Clinton argument.  It doesn't even hold water.  At no point has she been ahead in pledged delegates.  She has won some states here and there but they've all been states she was supposed to win, and Obama closed the margin in most.  Does anyone know where the Clinton goal posts even are anymore?  Have we just lost them?


John McCain isn't evil. He's just wrong about a lot of things. Vote Obama!
by proseandpromise on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:11:39 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

As a sports fan, I generally hate sports metaphors when discussing politics. For the most part, these are offered by people with a poor grasp of either sports or politics, and sometimes, both.

My initial thought when I read this one was, "Yeah, but doesn't that mean she still lost the game?"


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:24:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Next vote wins!


The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain
by really not a troll on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:57:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

GRAVELANCHE!


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:34:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)


John McCain isn't evil. He's just wrong about a lot of things. Vote Obama!
by proseandpromise on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:11:44 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

Am I missing something, or is MYDD totally delusional and in the tank for Sen. Clinton?


by georgiaka on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:28:09 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

are you new here?

Not going to touch that one, my friend.


John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country
by minnesotaryan on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:56:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

not all of them - Jonathan Singer has been pretty positive about Obama in recent weeks. But Todd Beeton is still doing "let's be even-handed" stuff when it's far too late, which would have been ok in Feb but is now well-past its sell-by date. As for Jerome...all I can say is I hope he goes on a long holiday after the primary season is over and gets his head straightened out...


by al1 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:14:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

Recall that the notion of superdelegate is a product of the party electing nominees who were unelectable in the GE.  

The problem with that notion is that it suggests that the SDs have some sort of magical power to see what the general Democratic electorate does not, assuming that the polls do not show something extreme about the disparate electability of the candidates.

In the present case, no one - not even the magically powered SDs - can say with any certainty that one of the candidates will do better than the other in the GE, especially given these two candidates who are so different from any other candidate in history.  

Had the system allowed the SDs an earlier role whereby they could have prevented two such candidates of unknown electability (because of their race and gender) from getting this far in the primaries, we could have a white guy (Edwards, Richardson) who would probably have cruised to victory in November.  Once again, the Democrats will be biting their nails on November 8th.  

At this point, it's really a crap shoot as to which candidate has the better chance of winning in November, no matter what the rhetoric is.  So, as a matter of fairness, we might as well just go with the more objective choice: the one with the most delegates.  THere's really nothing compelling to do anything else, and it's easier to explain to the electorate why the decision was made.


by MikeyB on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:31:33 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Richardson is white?  That's news to the Hispanic community.  


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:08:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

One can be white and Hispanic. In the U.S., the term is often perceived to be a racial designation, but it denotes more a sense of cultural heritage than anything else.

There are white Hispanics, indigenous Hispanics, and black Hispanics. . . and more, to be honest. However, in this country, that's pretty much how we break them down, so as to fit in to our own rather narrow definitions of race/racial difference.


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:19:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I think that I wanted to use the tern "connotes" rather "denotes" in the above post.


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:20:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

White enough, as opposed to Obama who is half white, but not white enough.


by MikeyB on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:06:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Well the majority of pledge delegates is relevant because some superdelegates have said they would vote for the winner of the pledge delegates. This includes Pelosi and Carter.

Exactly!  I (almost) felt as though Pelosi was trying to weasel out of her statement on this when I saw an interview with her yesterday, but I think she just wants all the primary votes to come in before endorsing anyone.


by Anita on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:39:14 AM EST

What 3 quarters (2.00 / 2)

did Clinton win?

If I'm not mistaken - Obama won the 'early' contests -- despite the IA-SC to NV/NH split, Obama garnered more votes AND more delegates.

Obama actually won Super Tuesday by a negligible amount of delegates.

He then rolled up 11 straight wins after that.

HRC won OH straight out, won the TX primary (but not the caucus) - I believe that March 4 was the first day that Clinton actually won more delegates than Obama on any given day.

Someone explain to me exactly what these "quarters" are... Is WV  -- all 5 EV, delegates WV -- a quarter unto itself?

Beyond that - can we also admit how intellectually dishonest it is to view the race so chronologically when geography has CLEARLY been its most defining characteristic?

I mean - sure - I'll be happy to see Obama go out on a high note and likely wrap up the contests by winning SD and MT, but I'll certainly admit that he won SD and MT because Obama romps in the mountain and northern/western states - an area that Clinton struggles.

I'm a big baseball fan - and in particular, I'm a big fan of the improperly named 'sabremetrics' popularized by folks like Bill James, Rob Neyer, and company.   One of the first rules of such analysis is that statistical performance needs to be normalized.... the RBI total for a player in a stacked lineup shouldn't be compared to the RBI total of a player in a crappy lineup.... We don't treat offensive performance in Comerica the same way we treat it in Fenway.

In short - we normalize the numbers to remove the subjectivity of environment and such.

If you want to honestly analyze this race - you've got to do the same.  

Clinton's strongest geographic areas just happen to hit us over the past month or so.... just as we were in Obama's wheelhouse after Super Tuesday through the rest of February.

To treat states as some sort of neutral thing that can be analyzed in a vacuum absent demographics, geography, etc is simply dishonest.


by zonk on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:45:40 AM EST

Re: What 3 quarters (none / 0)

1st Quarter = All the contests Obama won, regardless of actual calendar date

2nd-4th Quarter = All the contests Clinton won, regardless of how few or how many delegates or how little money, few votes, etc she garnered.

Once you have the proper perspective, it is clear that Clinton is mopping the floor with Obama.


If yer after gettin the honey, then you don't go killing all the bees.
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:27:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What 3 quarters (none / 0)

Heh.

I wish there were more Clinton supporters running Major League Baseball...

I mean, I've been arguing for more than a week that after the Cubs swept the series between the teams with the two best NL records -- that we ought to just proceed directly to the World Series and await the AL's entrant.

Still no takers...


by zonk on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:40:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You've hit the hidden asterisk (none / 0)

While it's reasonable to say that everything from March 4 on are the second half, the argument implies that Clinton won one of the first two quarters.

Obama won Iowa.
They tied in delegates in NH
Obama won South Carolina
Obama won more delegates in Nevada

Obama won more delegates on Super Tuesday

We know how the rest of February went.

The only even internally logical way to interpret that is that they're counting popular votes, and -- say it with me -- counting Florida and Michigan.

And if you do that, then the whole argument becomes redundant, because then you're just making the "Fl/MI counts and Hillary's won more PV, so she wins" argument.


by Rorgg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:25:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Crazy talk (2.00 / 1)

You expect us to believe that you think the pledged delegates don't mean anything?  That is just plain stupid.  I hate to be so blunt but you need to try better than that if you want to convince a blog full of political junkies that Clinton has a realistic shot at winning the nomination.  Barring a disaster or a HUGE controversy Obama has this race won.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:48:13 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

"Now, I'm not saying the milestone is entirely meaningless,"

The delegates pledged to Obama via the different State's Primaries appreciate your opinion.

Pledged
Obama 1,657.5 (subject to change OR final)
Clinton 1,500.5 (subject to change OR final)


"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"
by nogo postal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:50:28 AM EST

On the popular vote... (2.00 / 1)

I did want to say a few things about the popular vote canard, too...

And make no mistake, it's a canard.

HRC's popular vote argument -- even at the most "fair" system of measurement her supporters allow - still requires that we allocate 0 votes to Obama from MI and include hers.

Sure, sure -- the argument goes "Obama wasn't on the ballot!!!!!  SO IT'S HIS FAULT!!!!".

Fair enough... BUT - the sole reason that one would cite the 'popular vote' in a contest measured by delegates is because it serves to illustrate the 'will of the people'.

Yet, by tallying MI as ~300K to 0 --- how in the 'popular vote', under that system, be claimed to represent the 'will of the people'?


by zonk on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:57:27 AM EST

Re: On the popular vote... (2.00 / 1)

She doesn't, Obama has the popular vote.

Thats why this whole dissing of the popular vote is so disturbing to me. It's a good valueable metric, and one he has won. Why compromise ones democratic values to argue against the metric?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:03:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the popular vote... (none / 0)

No, it's a red herring on top of being wrong.

1) There's no objective way to count the popular vote.

2) "Reasonable" counts do not put Clinton ahead.

3) Even the most "reasonable" counts don't reflect accurately the will of the voters because caucus states are underrepresented.

4) The popular vote is not how presidential candidates are chosen.

Everyone knew the rules of the nomination ahead of time. Changing the rules and moving the goal posts because one candidate doesn't like the outcome is not reasonable.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:01:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the popular vote... (none / 0)

Have you even read my comments?

1. There is an objective way to make an estimate. That estimates places Obama ahead outside any reasonable error margin.

2. I've always argued that. I even noted it in the comment you are responding to. Obama wins the popular vote.

3. True. the caucus states get the short end of the stick with the popular count. Yet as the popular count favors Obama who would have won with even bigger vote counts there if it were primeries that isn't a disqualifier as it hasn't change the winner of the popular vote.

4. This isn't the presidential election. The presidental election does't have aportioned pledged delegates or superdelegates either. And yes remeber 2000. The presidental election would be better off being following the popular vote.

My whole argument has been that the popular vote metric is as valid as the pledged delegate metric.Both the pledged metric and popular vote metric have no offical standing and favor Obama.

If you can show me a single instance where I argued changing the rules and moving the goal posts in favor of a candidate, please do so.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:54:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the popular vote... (none / 0)

I'm not saying you're in favor of changing the rules, I'm just saying that there's no sensible reason to give credence to the popular vote argument. It's a trap.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:01:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the popular vote... (none / 0)

How so?

The popular vote is always a good indicator what the will of the people is. That seems a very good reason to give credence to it.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:38:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the popular vote... (none / 0)

I think we've already gone over the reasons why it's not a good measure of the will of the people, but I'll repeat them:

1) It under-represents the will of the voters in caucus states.

2) It mis-represents the will of voters in Michigan (who didn't have a full slate of choices) and Florida (many of whom didn't show up because they knew their vote wasn't going to count).

3) There's no objective way to count the popular vote, so nobody will be able to agree on who actually won it.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:00:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the popular vote... (none / 0)

1. Normal representation would result in a further Obama lead.

2. So does any delegate appropriation for those states. The primary victim is Obama, who still leads.

3. That's why I want to use it in conjuncture with the pledged delegate count. While the subjectiveness of various states count certainly is somewhat problematic used jointly it will only strenghten the legitimacy of the candidate as the majority of people do recognize the over the manipulation that is needed to chance the outcome of the popular vote.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:10:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the popular vote... (2.00 / 0)

Just in case someone is looking for the famous link...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yJn4VtgJ 5A

She was against counting the Michigan votes before she was for it.


by smoker1 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:08:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 2)

oh...
remaining pledged to be determined?
86

Of course we can go to  Supers
Obama 306.5
Clinton 278.5
remaining? 211

And we can go to combined totals..
Obama 1,964
Clinton 1,779

Obama needs 61
Clinton needs 246

But hey..it NOT about delegates..
It's about Appalachia


"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"
by nogo postal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:57:56 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 2)

I in no way mean to call this out in particular, because this is certainly one of the more even handed pro-Clinton diaries, but this is a perfect example of exactly the reasoning that causes people to become hardened against Sen. Clinton's continued campaign.

The primary isn't "psychological warfare" and everything isn't fair game. The point isn't to do anything and everything physically possible to win. We're on the same damn side, leaving aside this kind of thing shouldn't be acceptable in the general either, what with it all being the same country and that kind of attitude getting us where we are now.

The fact that on the main page of a major progressive blog the truth is considered irrelevant to the political advantage of any given statement should shame us all. There is a world of difference between a true statement (Sen. Obama has won a majority of all possible pledged delegates), a selective reading of the truth (if you only count results since April Sen. Clinton is winning), and a lie (Sen. Clinton has won 3 quarters of the game and is wrongly losing the game, which is both factually wrong [at best 1 out of 4 to her] and a fundamental lie [that there's supposedly something wrong with outscoring the opponent more in 1 quarter than they do you in 3]).

It's the same thing that sickened so many people about the gas tax (Jerome proudly declaring Obama is an idiot for actually bothering to care about the truth of what he's saying and praising Sen. Clinton for pushing what she must know is a lie) and that we've seen with increasing frequency, to the point of excluding pretty much anything else, from Sen. Clinton's supporters as this race has started winding up.


by werehippy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:58:52 AM EST

Chaos (2.00 / 1)

Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" undoubtedly added lots of 'popular votes' to Clinton's total. Without them, the fantasy metric would not even have been possible.

I'm just glad he steered the ditto-heads to Hillary's side - I can only imagine the level of outrage we'd be seeing had he gone the other way.


by xdem on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:01:20 AM EST

Re: Chaos (2.00 / 1)

Full disclosure, I am an Obama supporter.

Druggie Rush LimpBalls had no affect on this election, and attributing Hillary votes to him only falsely glorifies his importance.

His influence didn't stop McSame from getting the nomination, and it isn't affecting ours. He is a self-important boob, and I would hope we Dems wouldn't perpetuate the myth of his influence!

Thanks,
Alec Timmerman


by alectimmerman on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:38:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Chaos (none / 0)

I didn't estimate how many votes were cast for Hillary by ditto-heads, or that they influenced the outcome of the primary elections. I believe there were at least some votes cast that way, both in open primaries and in those States that allow late registration or affiliation change. All such votes count toward the 'popular vote' myth in Hillary's favor.

Also, since Rush advocated (regardless of how successfully) that his minions vote for Hillary, I then posited that had he told them to vote for Obama that we'd now be dealing with accusations that Rush picked Obama. I'm glad that isn't how it worked out.


by xdem on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:55:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I am confused...why is CNN ignoring the all important popular vote?
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"
by nogo postal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:05:50 AM EST

duh! (none / 0)

Because they hate Clinton.  I wish you elitist Obamabots would stop touting the opinions of the press.  The MSM has no effect on popular opinion and the fact that they hate Clinton and adore McCain means she is the only Democrat who can win in November.    

/snark (It is a sad day on the liberal blogosphere when I have to tell you this is snark)


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:30:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 4)

>> I'm not saying York was entirely artful about
>> expressing it, but that argument is no more
>> absurd or off limits than the majority of pledged
>> delegates thing.

Yeah, actually it is.

Delegates are what count.  The final determinant is, of course, total delegates and not just pledged delegates.  But as of yesterday Obama has a majority of the largest, and most democratic, category of delegates: the pledged delegates.  That is significant because:

1) With several races still left for Obama to pad his pledged-delegate majority, it means that Clinton would need a very large edge in superdelegates to bring the total-delegate race into contention.

2) The pledged-delegate count is still the most accurate reading available of the will of the voters.  Having won the pledged-delegate count, Obama has a strong claim to being "the choice of the voters".

Contrast this with the Clinton camp's popular vote argument.  The popular vote is a weak argument, because:

1) Unlike the pledged delegate count, it has no concrete bearing on the outcome of the total-delegate race.

2) It severely undercounts the popular sentiment in caucus states, where turnout is roughly a quarter what it is in primary states.

3) Clinton doesn't actually lead in the popular vote, unless you:

a: Discount any votes from caucus states that didn't release official totals.

b: Count the unsanctioned and un-campaigned race in Florida.

c: Count the unsanctioned race in Michigan in which Obama wasn't even on the ballot.

In short, there's spin and then there's spin.  Obama's campaign is guilty of taking something that's genuinely meaningful to the outcome and playing it up for maximum effect.  Clinton's campaign is guilty of taking a meaningless metric and then ginning up an absurd set of conditions under which she's actually ahead in that metric.

I don't mind being spun, but I do mind having my intelligence insulted, and that's the difference here.


by Frood on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:05:59 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

Why is it when other Democratic Party primary contenders went to the convention with far fewer delegates than Hillary has that nobody had a problem with it?


by usedmeat on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:12:11 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Because they aren't a threat to upset the entire convention or dominate press coverage leading up to it.  If Edwards had said, "I'm going to the convention and trying to win", no one would pay any attention to him.  I think there is a nagging worry in the back of every Obama supporter's mind that Hillary will go scorched earth at a contested election and we'll lose the white house to McCain.  I'm not saying she will, but it's hard not to conflate the kind of rhetoric thrown around by her most ardent supporters on this site (I'm going to vote for McCain, etc) with her potential action plan going down the road.

If that is her plan, then she can have it.  I'll support her because I love this country and the likelihood of another protracted middle east war is 100 times more likely if he's president.  There is no King Solomon watching over this process to award the nomination to the person who would not see the party cut in two, and so if it needs to go to her, fine.


John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country
by minnesotaryan on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:52:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bugging my sensibilities (2.00 / 1)

I started off for Hillary, so I will and would vote for her in the end, so I consider myself pretty fair minded.

What I cannot get my mind around is the fact that people are trying to claim that an election with only one person on the ballot is legitimate and should actually count as is.

How can someone honestly think that no Michiganers would have voted for Obama, when in even a worst case scenario at least 40% probably would have.

Anyway, someone explain to me how that was a fair election that should be counted as is, because that is the only way Hillary wins the popular vote.
Thanks,
Alec

/


by alectimmerman on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:19:27 AM EST

Re: Bugging my sensibilities (none / 0)

Even if Obama was on the ballot, it was not a fair election, 'cos everyone knew it was a beauty contest... many people stayed home, and Obama was at a disadvantage, 'cos he didn't campaign there...


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:52:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What is she doing? (2.00 / 2)

She is trying to delegitimize Obama. After IN and NC it was obvious for almost everyone that Obama is going to be the nominee.

Since then she's been hammering him on 1. "hard working" white Americans - racially divisive; 2. popular vote - which is a flawed metric, doesn't apply here and she is not leading in it; 3. sexism - which is a problem in the media but to blame her loss on it is more than a strecth not to mention how divisive it is; 4. MI and FL - both of which were blatantly unfair - she agreed to the rules, she said they won't count and now she is acting like a voting rights champion? Btw, Obama has always said that the delegations will be seated in some capacity that will be acceptable to both campaings and the DNC. I am sure there will be a generous compromise on May 31st but to tout that as some kind of moral victory for Clinton would be ridiculous.

So, she doesn' have a chance to win this thing. Reaching a compromise on FL and MI wouldn't be her victory. Then WTF is she doing? She is fanning the flames, whipping her supporters into a frenzy making sure that they think that she was robbed. Everything she has done since WV was to delegitimize our presumptive nominee. It is despicable.


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:20:43 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 2)

"he sounds like he actually thinks a majority of pledged delegates means something concrete as opposed to merely psychological".

In a delegate race you can not get more concrete than winning a majority of pledged delegates.

If for no other reason because it now means that he can win the nomination with a minority of superdelegates.

(but people who prefer to imagine they are in a boxing ring or on a playing field rather than a marathon race track are free to think different)


by My Ob on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:21:42 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (1.50 / 2)

Yes, proving yet again that Obama is not the Renaissance man of politics he claims to be.  He uses the same manipulative and scheming tactics as anyone. The difference is, he's run a campaign specifically on NOT doing so.

And that is the big Obama lie.

I '08 is going to be a repeat of '00: Obama will win the popular vote (by a much larger margin than did Gore, though, due to increased turnout) but will lose the election.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:26:21 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Manipulative.

HE PLAYED BY THE RULES!!!!!! Why won't you just accept that. This has always been a race about delegates. I am amazed by the level of ignorance around here.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:39:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Well, Obama plays by the rules when they suit him but doen't like them so much when they don't.

For instance, he's all about rules when it comes to disenfranchising millions of voters in FL. in MI. by saying two people in each state didn't obey Dean so, well, too bad FL. and MI. That's like how seven people were allowed to ignore the will of millions of voters in '00 and gave us Bush.  Heck, rules are rules!

On the other hand, when a recount was proposed in order to include millions of voters, Obama didn't care for that rule so much.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:47:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Um, Obama was willing to compromise on illegal elections in Michigan and Hillary turned it down last week.  

My sig says it all.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:00:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Huh? (2.00 / 0)

He's been telling the truth! He won the majority of pledged delegates. It is a race for delegates as Hillary put it. He's been consistent.

On the other hand, Hillary is lying about leading in the popular vote using some very "creative" math. But it is not the measure we use to decide the nominee anyway. If you don't like it then work to change it for the next election. As a five year old would know: you don't change the rules in the middle of the game.

All she's been doing lately is trying to delegitimize Obama creating the illusion that she was robbed. She is doing a great disservice to all of us.


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:41:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huh? (1.00 / 0)

Yep, and Gore lied about the popular vote too and in the same way! By thinking votes should count!

Obama and Bush do have that in common: win by NOT counting votes.

Bush called counting votes "fuzzy math", Obama calls it "creative math."

Interesting.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:45:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huh? (none / 0)

Hillary is not counting votes in four states with her metric.  Who is disenfranchising whom?

I say COUNT ALL THE VOTES!  Count IA, NV, NB, and WA!!!!


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:50:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I call it "creative" math. (none / 0)

Don't try to put this on Obama. He's been far more gracious than I am.

As for Gore, he didn't have to discount FOUR states AND allocate 0 votes for Bush in one state to come out ahead in popular vote. That is exactly what Hillary is doing. She IS using "creative" math. Blatantly dishonest.


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:56:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I call it "creative" math. (1.00 / 1)

Right. Fuzzy math, creative math...

"Don't put this on Obama."

Good grief. what is it about Obama's supporters that make them so cult-like?

Obama is responsible for his campaign.  His campaign didn't want recounts in Florida and Michigan.  In other words, they feared he would lose if all votes were counted.

So did Bush in '00.

Just sayin'...

Btw, Bush was gracious too.  He also had his knee cappers do the dirty work.

I prefer the guts and integrity of Clinton openly and directly challenging her opponent herself.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:03:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I call it "creative" math. (none / 0)

Integrity?  Insisting that invalid elections "count" even when many people stayed home, didn't get to know the candidate 'cos they didn't campaign there, and in MI's case, didn't even get to select who they wanted in the election?

That's integrity? No, that's banana republic politics.


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:09:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I call it "creative" math. (none / 0)

I'm just saying that the Obama argument here mirrors Bush's in '00.

Which is interesting and creepy at the same time.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:19:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Cult-like? Can you be any more condescending? (none / 0)

Obama is responsible for his campaign. He is not responsible for my words. Big difference.

You have not addressed the main point of my comment which is how can you NOT count FOUR states and allocate 0 votes in one. In what universe is that fair?  

And saying something racist about your black opponent is challanging him with guts and intergrity? Good grief, indeed!


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:15:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Cult-like? Can you be any more condescending? (none / 0)

Oh cripes.

So when you accuse Hillary of using creative math, you're being sexist because everyone knows females don't do as well in math as males.

Good grief.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:18:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What? (none / 0)

"So when you accuse Hillary of using creative math, you're being sexist because everyone knows females don't do as well in math as males."

If you are trying to equate that to what Hillary said than that is soooo ridiculous I don't even know what to say.

Again, you didn't address a single point in my post. You are only trying to fan the flames. It is pointless.

Have a good day.

P.S. I am a female and VERY good at math.


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:47:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I think the "majority of pledged delegate" thing came from Nancy Pelosi.


by Becky G on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:26:30 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

This letter writer in today's Times puts the Clinton despair in excellent perspective:

To the Editor:

Re "Gender Issue Lives On as Clinton's Hopes Dim," (front page, May 19):

The reason Hillary Rodham Clinton's supporters, women or otherwise, are so angry is that it is likely that not only will Hillary Clinton have been regarded as having prevailed in most of the debates, not only will she have won most of the large and swing states, but it is also likely that she will have won more popular votes than either of the other two candidates left in the race for the presidency, and yet it will be she who is asked to bow out.

And this will be after having endured the worst press beating I have ever seen heaped on a candidate. The shame of it is that she is the candidate with the most reasoned approach to multiple problems, and many of us will be left with no candidate whom we could wholeheartedly support.

I would not be at all surprised if she were to be the first independent candidate to have a real shot at the presidency.

Deborah Moran
Houston, May 19, 2008


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:37:41 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I cannot even respond to this nonsense.  


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:40:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah. (2.00 / 1)

If the shoe were on the other foot can you imagine Obama going around blaming his loss on rampant racism? I can't.


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:45:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He explicitly said it would NOT be racism. (none / 0)


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:47:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah. (none / 0)

You can't?

You haven't heard Obamans shrieking racism and race baiting all along?

You're kidding.

W. VA?

Kentucky?

Hmmm...


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:48:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama didn' say ANYTHING about WV and KY (none / 0)

that can be seen as divisive. Some VOTERS in WV and KY DID say that race was an issue for them. And looking at the results and exit polls it is obvous that it was an issue. But the OBama campaing has NOT fanned the flames on this.

It is Hillary who's been pushing this blatantly racist line that "hard working Americans, white Americans" won't vote for Obama. Straight out of her mouth.  It is not coming from a surrogate or some anonymous poster on the internet. It is coming from her. And don't let me start on Bill. The Clintons HAD the black vote. They lost it because of their own actions.


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:07:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama didn' say ANYTHING about WV and KY (none / 0)

Right.  

Again, Obama, like bush did, stays above the fray and his surrogates do the dirty work for him.

First of all, it is unrealistic to say that racism hasn't played or will not play a role in any election here. Of course it will.  There is still a lot of racism in America. It is also unrealistic to say that sexism and misogyny have been non-existent.  They've actually been more existent and more tolerated, even accepted.

Second, to say that Clinton's saying she is getting the "hard working, white working class vote", or whatever it was was racism is absurd.  One of the Obama tactics is to see racism in everything and cry foul. why? Because in fact racism is considered repugnant by most Americans now, thank God, whereas cries of sexism are laughed at.  Obama is in fact where he is because cries of race baiting and racims worked well for him.

Why is it racism, and in particular racism against black people, to note you are doing better than your opponent with a certain voting bloc?  Many have noted that Obama is getting upwards of 90% of the AA vote. Is that race baiting?

Is it race baiting to note that, say, Democrats get a majority of the Jewish vote?  Women?  How do you know Clinton wasn't being racist toward Asian Americans?

If she had said "Sen. Obama is doing better than I am with the hard working, AA vote", would you have heard that as her calling white people lazy?

When Thomas Frank wrote "What's the Matter with Kansas?", he was addressing the blue collar, white male voter. was he racist AND sexist and calling blacks and women lazy? Stupid?  

It's absurd.  Every time Clinton opens her mouth, some Obaman replies by accusing her of racism or race baiting. The Clinton are not racist, as their record and history proves. This is a Rovian techinique: take an asset and turn it into a liability.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:17:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You are changing her words. (none / 0)

"Hard working, white working class vote" is NOT the same as "hard working Americans, white Americans". The latter implies that only white Americans are hard working.

I give her the benefit of the doubt and belive that she conflated the electibility aregument ( white working class vote) with pendering to the working class voters (calling them hard working Americans) in her senctence. So it probably came out much uglier than she meant it. But to use that as an argument against the presumptive nominee is very devisive. Again, she doesn't have a chance to win this thing. She is using this line of argument, along with the charges of sexism and the fake popular vote argument to saw confusion and to delegitimize Obama. Very selfish. Where is her dignity?


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:38:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are changing her words. (none / 0)

Lol.

Charges of sexism are fake and wrong but charges of racism are legit.

Got it.

the irony, of course, is that it is the Obama camp that is, for political reasons, making an issue of race where one does not exist by using this sentence of Clniton's.  You seem to acknowledge that she did not mean anything racist by it, yet you use it to accuse her of racism.

That is the problem I've seen with the Obama campaign. It is they who've used race politically.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:44:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, I accuse her of racism (2.00 / 1)

because using the argument knowingly for the sole purpose of fanning the flames of divisivness is racist even though I don't belive that she personally is racist. I just think she is very selfish. Let's repeat, it is her own words that are in question right now. It is NOT the Obama camp who made and issue out of it.

Sexism in the media is a legitimate issue. But to blame her loss on it is ridiculous and doesn't accomplish anything other than creating the illusion that she was robbed.


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:57:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, I accuse her of racism (none / 0)

So you admit that sexism in the media has been a problem for Hillary, but then you say she shouldn't mention it.

But then you rage about one sentence by Clinton, no mention even of AAs, but it was racist.

Sheesh.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:15:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Stop distorting my words! (none / 0)

I didn't say she shouldn't mention it. I said it is a legitimate issue. But to blame her loss on it is more than a stretch. Please, use some reading comprehension.

Also, "sheesh", "rage" come on!


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:41:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Stop distorting my words! (none / 0)

Accusing someone of racism where it doesnt' exist is an attempt to shut them up. IT's also a political tool.

To on the one hand say Clinton shouldn't mention sexism but then on the other say she shouldn't "use it as an excuse" when it is clearly a major factor is not rational.

If Clinton were a man, she'd have run away with this.  If Obama were white, he wouldn't have the problems he had in W. VA and Kentucky and will have in the General.

Those are just ugly facts.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OK! You win! Happy now? (none / 0)


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:09:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK! You win! Happy now? (1.00 / 1)

Now you're just being childish.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:14:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I am being childish when (2.00 / 1)

you keep using disparaging words to shut people up when they are trying to have a civilized debate. Whatever.


by Sopianae on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:18:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, I accuse her of racism (none / 0)

She absolutely shouldn't mention it - how does it help her?  If she admits being damaged by sexism, then it just gives fuel to those who wish to damage her through this tact.  It shows her as weak.

HRC has pretty much minimized her chances at running a successful GE campaign - if sexism is an issue in the Primary, it'll be an issue in the fall, if she couldn't handle the heat of sexism in the Primary, when Obama was fairly hands off, she'll wilt under the sexist onslaught of the Republicans.


"I'm all for the delegate battle, and now that Obama's campaign is too, I'm all giddy. It's going to be the supers as kingmaker." J.Armstrong 01/19/08
by obscurant on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:26:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So I guess your saying (2.00 / 1)

the only legitimate number is 2026, none of this pledged delegate or popular vote count or 2209 bunk, just 2026 as originally stated?

Right oh, give him a couple weeks, I'm sure he'll satisfy that measure by then.


by grass on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:40:11 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

heh. did raise a few eyebrows with the intro of that talking point.


by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:42:40 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

Manipulative?  Give me a break!  How about Clintons' "popular vote" lead wherein she disenfranchises four   states and half of Michigan.  I guess that's not "manipulative"?

Winning the pledged delegate majority IS a big deal... It has been the winning metric for as long as the party has been around...  It's only Hillary's "spin" that somehow "changed" that...

Although, it didn't change at all...  She is not winning the popular vote, and she is unlikely to win it, even by her flawed metric, in the end.


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:49:26 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

apparantly two wrongs dont make a right, so justifying Obama's talking point by saying "WEll HRC did it first" isn't really a justification.

Todd clearly points out that it is a big deal, but for a campaign like Obama's that strictly says "rules are rules" and criticizes the HRC campaign for changing metrics, its quite ironic for them to be introducing a new metric as well.

Nothing changed as far as the race goes, as far as I know.


by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:00:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

New metric?  how have they introduced a "new metric?"  The majority of pledged delegates is an old metric... a stepping stone to the majority of delegates overall... nothing "new" here at all...  It's the Hillary camp that is creating "new" metrics that don't exist!


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:04:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

it was a new metric because it some how tried to claim they hard already 'won' before they reached the official tally.

I realize the implication of the 'majority of delegates' is a huge stepping stone but to introduce it as 'look we already won' kind of mentality is just as bad as Clinton's 'i got more votes, so I have already won'

it was an Obama talking point, does it contain fact? yes of course, but the menatlity behind it as if it meant he already won was semi-ridiculus.

Honestly I think it confused a lot of people. 2026. thats the only real number here. nothing else, officially.


by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:17:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not just inartful (2.00 / 1)

There have been four quarters in the Democratic presidential nomination battle. We're late in the fourth quarter now, and when it's over, Hillary Clinton will likely have won three of the quarters -- and won the most votes overall -- but lost the game.

The performance of the candidates has mostly been a function of culture and demographics. The ebb and flow of the candidate's overall performance (as reflected by the subtle swings in national polls) has been minor by comparison over the course of most of the contest. This is unlike in a football game, where a team may play very poorly in one period, but really well in another. Each state is not equally up for grabs the way a quarter of football is - there are built in advantages for one candidate or the other.

So, basically what he's saying is that Hillary Clinton should win because the states that were favorable to her happened to have their contests spread out over a broad period of time, while the states that were favorable to Barack Obama happened to schedule many of their contests close together.

I'm sorry, but that rational is way, way, way more absurd than any count based on delegates, or even the red herring about the popular vote which excludes four states but includes the farce in Michigan. It ranks up there with the "states with an odd number of electoral vote" type arguments.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:50:20 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I think the popular vote is relevant, including the numbers from the caucus states IF/WHEN they are released (why haven't they been?).....

But I think it's important to also take into account the NE and WA primary votes too simply because so many more people voted in these primaries then in the caucuses.

I believe the pledged delegate metric is flawed because of the illegal things I saw, for example, at the TX caucus and I think the entire delegates from the TX caucus should be thrown out.

I think it's a true flaw in the democratic system that a delegate gained from a caucus in Idaho (say) holds far more weight than a delegate gained in a primary, like CA.

It is a flawed system that has to change.

The Super Delegates are free (so are the pledged apparently) to move from candidate to candidate - which means if Hillary can make a strong argument on popular vote and electability, they could move back to her (unlikely I realize, but possible).

Even the use of SD's is a somewhat flawed concept that could be put to rest if the use of popular vote were in play.

I'm not impressed at all with the way democrats elect a nominee and believe that either group (obama supporters and hillary supporters) will be disappointed if their candidate doesn't win - either group will feel slighted: Obama's group would feel slighted if they lead in pledged delegates but the SD's overturned that....Hillary's group will feel slighted based on caucuses, if she wins popular vote but is not given the nomination.....

If's flawed, the DNC is to blame for creating such a complex and flawed system.


by nikkid on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:59:06 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Illegal things? Leave the party if you don't like the rules because this is about pledge delegates as Hillary stated herself. She is just trying to change the rules and she has been allowed to because she is a white woman.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:03:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Love it or leave it?

That's a Repub slogan.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:09:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

No it is a factual slogan.  

Don't hate the player hate the game. If you don't like the game, don't play it. The rules are the rules  no matter how many times you try to tell yourself that they are not.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:16:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Um, I think the person who made the original poster here was saying they don't like the game and think it needs some correcting. You replied by basically saying, Love it or leave it.

The "game" in a democracy is counting votes.  Why was the Obama camp so against a revote in MI and Fl.?

Obamans are for rules when they help him, against them when they don't.  The point being, the "rules" are pretty nebulous here and bump up against other "rules."

But of course, all Obamans can see are the "rules" that help Obama and/or hurt Clinton.  
Its they who are about "the person", not the rules, IMO.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:25:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

He wasn't against revotes. Revotes! Revotes! It is easier to scream that then actually doing it. The problem with the revote is that it actually disenfranchises more people and is almost logistically impossible. If there was a logistically possible way to have a re-vote he would have signed onto it but there just wasn't one.

No, having Clinton supporters paying for a re-vote would not work. No, not allowing everyone to vote would not work.

I should also point out that Obama was asked this question by a voter in Michigan and he said that not everyone who wanted to vote would be able to so how would that be democratic.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:33:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

That's true in any election.

So Obama is against voting because in every election there will be some people who want to vote but cannot?

Wow.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:41:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

why leave? better to change it.


by nikkid on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:26:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Sweet Potato Pie,

Please stop this. We do not want these people to leave the party. This is not about race or sex. If we are going to have a prayer of winning in November, all of us need to take a deep breath and think about what matters to us most.

Please stop asking people to leave, and please change your sig. Your candidate has won. You can afford to be gracious. Be sympathetic to bruised feelings, and help us all come together.

Thanks,

pneuma


Yes. We. Did.
by pneuma on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:29:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I've tried to be very reasonable and allow for the healing but you have people here that want to defy common sense and it is quite frustrating and insulting. I am a black person who has dealt with the moving of goal posts all of my life and this is just another reminder of that when people call Barack a liar and a cheater because he played by the rules and is winning.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:35:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

So you're saying that race is a factor.  You're signature indicates this as well.

If Hillary were to say so, she'd be called racist or accused of race baiting.

Bit of a conundrum.

Racism will be eradicated when a black candidate for political office can be challenged and criticized w/o charges of racism being leveled at every turn.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:39:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

As a black person, yes, I do think race is a factor here. I know of many other blacks who would agree with me.  Obama has played by the rules and yet there are people who are screaming about how he cheated or he manipulated the process. Prove it. Hillary said herself that it was about delegates until she was losing but yet because Barack as a black man who is winning is now scum because he is winning fair and square. I see it time and time again in my life of this happening where a black person plays fairly and gets screwed because a white person wants to change the rules to suit their own interest. This time it will not happen.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:47:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

What I'm addressing here is your admission that "as a black person, race is a factor" while at the same time insisting that race should not be a factor and anyone (who is white, I gather) who says it is (or even doesn't mention race!) is being racist.

Obama wins by conundrum!  


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:53:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Look, I agree that every politician should be challenged on issues of policy. What we have seen this campaign is Barack being questioned about wearing a flag pin which NO ONE ELSE wears. He has been called a "drug dealer" the "shuck and jive" candidate by Clinton surrogates without Hillary doing or saying a thing.  Those are race baiting comments and the fact that she has not publicly said anythign about them is appalling and is part of the reason why her support among blacks is worse than that of John Kerry and will continue to go down.  When she says "hardworking white americans" that is insulting to blacks like myself.  I have no problem having a discussion about Barack's policy stances but what has gone on during this primary is what amounts to in the minds of many AA's like myself is a double standard for a black person which so many of us are all too familiar with in our daily lives. That is all that I am saying.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:58:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

And Clinton has been called a bitch, among other things, and had her wrinkles, tears, and pantsuits commented on.  Yet you deny there is any sexism going on.

You hold one standard for Obama and one for Clinton.  Where Obama is concerned, there is racism everywhere!  Where Clinton is concerned, any cries of sexism are ridiculous.

Again, I am noting that you, on the one hand, admit that race is a factor for you, as is clear by your posts and your sig, but then you (and Obama) insist that race should not be mentioned, a factor, anything, in this race.

So you want it both ways. You want Obama in large part because he is black and you are black, but then you don't want race mentioned, unless it's by someone in the Obama camp accusing Clinton of racism, even when it is simply absent.

Btw, as a woman, were you offended by Obama's condescendingly referring to that reporter as "Sweetie"?

Doubt it.

But Clinton speaking exclusively about one bloc of voters is attacking black people.

Good grief.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:13:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Are you stupid? It doesn't matter if race is a factor or not. You won.

Making yourself feel better by having arguments on the internet will not help your candidate. If you are here to make yourself feel better, go masturbate instead. It will be more productive than the jerk fest you are engaging in here.

If you really think that people will not do everything in their power to tear down a candidate, you are a political naif. This is not about race, it is politics as usual.

I believe you have a contribution to make here. Lift people up instead of claiming unfair treatment. Remember, you won.


Yes. We. Did.
by pneuma on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:00:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Stay classy.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:03:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I'm just trying to do everything I can to help my candidate win. I'm not sure what you are doing, but I know it isn't helping.

Look, Juno is obviously upset about how things have gone. You can either argue with her about which of your candidates got the raw-er deal, or you can try to bridge the gap. We want every vote. Row in the same direction here with me, will you?


Yes. We. Did.
by pneuma on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:22:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

The primaries in those states were beauty contests, and many people didn't vote in them.  Why does the Hillary camp insist on "counting" invalid contests?  Besides, Obama won both of those contests.  It doesn't help your case at all.


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:05:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ya gotta love it! (none / 0)

"but let's not pretend the Obama campaign wasn't being manipulative"

...along with just about every front page post on this blog!


by bach on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:59:16 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Clinton is chutzpah personified.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:03:32 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

What's wrong with chutzpah?

Chutzpah can often come in handy.

Btw, chutzpah might be running for president after only two years in the US Senate, as a junior senator, simply because you gave a good speech and a culture obsessed with celebrity started chanting your name w/r/t being president.

THAT'S chutzpah.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:08:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

"chutzpah might be running for president after only two years in the US Senate, as a junior senator, simply because you gave a good speech and a culture obsessed with celebrity started chanting your name w/r/t being president."

It's generally considered a good thing for a leader to be able to give great speeches and inspire people, which Obama clearly does.

As far as experience goes, I've been mystified as to why Clinton keeps trying to portray herself as being an experienced leader. Certainly she's done many things in her career, and was the wife of a Governor and President (and thus "in government" in some sense, for most of her life), but in terms of actual leadership, she's only been New York's Senator since 2000 - Obama, while younger, actually has a bit more experience in leadership positions than she has, working as a community organizer and then serving in government since 1997.

Details at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_cli nton and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obama.

Admittedly Obama is fairly young, but (if my math is correct) he's 47, so he's far from the yougest Presidents (Teddy Rosevelt, 42, and JFK, 43), both of whom worked out fairly well. So while it certainly requires some chutzpah to run for President, I think that's true at any age, and any candidate. If anything, Obama (in public appearances) comes across as unusually polite and restrained when compared to most politicians.


by laird on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:19:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Obama got into this race because of one reason:

The reaction to that speech in 2002.

IT's an ego thing.  

That makes me uncomfortable.

And Obama does not have more leadership experience  than Clinton. Being a community organizer does not qualify one for becoming president.

I've asked what the evidence of this change and unity Obama has, and I've yet to get an answer. Why is that?

In debates ,I've only seen Obama get flustered and shaken up when really challenged, and this is in Democratic debates.  His answers to attacks on him are always a personal thing, again with the ego.  

He's too green at this point. He's certainly intelligent and has good instincts and an excellent philosophy of life. But That is not enough.

As for giving a good speech, I don't happen to think he does give a good speech. I listen to him on the radio, and it sounds like empty, but fluffy, rhetoric, and much of it he takes from elsewhere so it isn't even original.

It's been my belief that he's used this strategy in lieu of substance.  


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:31:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

It's called POLITICS.


by nikkid on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:27:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

"You're likable enough, Sweetie...er, Hillary."

Chutzpah.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:36:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I might be wrong here, but I think politicsmatters meant this as a compliment.

I'll add that Clinton has the heart of a lion and she has sure put it into this campaign. What has been the most offensive to me is how people have tried to tear her down -- a great Democrat -- who has worked her whole life for progressive causes, civil rights, equal rights, and children. People may not agree with everything she has done or said, but for her to be vilified the way she has is just wrong. She was and still is being torn down in a way that is offensive to common decency. Yet, she has been resilient and is stronger than ever. Her "can do" attitude and not taking "No" for an answer is something to celebrate not disparage.    


by grlpatriot on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:57:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Most concretely, the Pelosi club (a net effect of +10 for Obama, because one was a former Clinton supporter) will be decided based on the pledged delegate count.  

And for those in the reality-based community, the only chance of the superdelegates overriding the pledged delegate count overall is if a huge scandal (on the scale of a dead girl, a live boy, or a Republican bound in leather) erupts prior to the convention.  If that were to happen, it wouldn't matter what the various counts were.. pledged and super would flock to the next candidate in line, even if they had formally removed themselves from the race.

Without that one-in-a-million shot for Clinton, Obama clinched the delegate race the moment he was on a clear path to win the pledged delegates.  As he has been for months.. not coincidentally, attracting a flood of superdelegate commitments in that same time frame, compared to a mere trickle for Clinton.

Here ya go, Clinton supporters.. practice these lines!  

"The pledged delegate count doesn't matter."
"There are no tanks in Baghdad."
"The pledged delegate count doesn't matter."
"There are no tanks in Baghdad."


by Wayward Son on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:22:03 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

"he sounds like he actually thinks a majority of pledged delegates means something concrete as opposed to merely psychological"

Not sure if this counts as merely psychological or something that is concrete, but I think one measure of the importance of the pledged delegate majority is that a number of superdelegates, presumably pretty influential superdelegates at that, said they would side with the winner of the majority of pledged delegates.  That makes it pretty meaningful I would think, perhaps even as something "concrete", and not just a talking point from Sen. Obama, because it is something others said was important to them in making their decisions.  

Maybe they were misspeaking, maybe they have changed their mind, but it seems hard to describe that group (no, I don't have a ready count, but I have heard it is at least six) as merely an Obama talking point.


"We live entangled in webs of endless deceit, often self-deceit, but with a little honest effort, it is possible to extricate ourselves from them". -- NC
by Trond Jacobsen on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:23:30 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

The reality is that the superdelegates will have to give the nomination to Hillary Clinton.  This is the result of Barack Obama having won a majority of the pledged delegates in this race.

This is not a talking point.  It is a fact.


by Pat Flatley on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:33:23 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

They'll give it to Obama. From what I can tell, they're all consulting their 12 year olds and then switching to Obama.

Sigh.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:35:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

In all fairness, they have said "teenagers".


by grlpatriot on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:36:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Great, now Obama supporters are all children.

I love how some Clinton supporters seem to think that it is utterly impossible for a rational, thinking adult to actually prefer Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton. They could only pick him because they're ignorant children, or because of race, or because of sexism, or because they belong to a cult. Apparently, it's an indisputable, objective fact that Hillary Clinton is the better candidate, and anyone who says otherwise hasn't engaged their brain.

Insulting people is not generally a good way to win them over to your side.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:59:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Where did I say all Obama supporters are children????

I didn't.  They aren't.

What I said was that, the two reasons I've heard given for SDs switching from Clinton to Obama are:

1) they spoke to their children...

2) Obama can unite the country and bring change.

(I did not mention the second one, but since I now have, I will ask: on what do they base that?  What unity and change has Obama brought to date?)


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:07:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

The most commonly reason I've seen cited by super-delegates is that Obama has won (or will win) the pledged delegates, or that their state/district voted for Obama.

I know a few mentioned that their children support Obama, but we're mostly talking about adult children, not 12 year olds. Obama isn't just winning the under 18 demographic or the under 30 demographic -- he's winning the under 65 demographic. Anyhow, that's only been mentioned by a handful (including Carter), not a significant number.

I may have overreacted to your comment, but I see so much hate here and from the Clinton campaign toward Obama supporters, dismissing them as effete liberals, or too young to "know better", or cultists, or robots, or unimportant, or whatever.

I know Clinton supporters feel like they've been insulted too, but a lot of them haven't seemed to recognize that it's a two-way street and that they're not going to win anybody over by accusing them of being irrational for supporting Obama.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:36:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Ah, but we're not running on being nice. Obama is.

No, the ones I've heard have been referring to teenagers or younger, and it's been that "Awwwwww, the children" thing.  

I think there has been a bandwagon thing with Obama, and I think people will come to regret it and that some already have, but it seems unstoppable at this point.

I think Dems have made a big and costly mistake.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:02:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

But it's been Hillary Clinton supporters that have been complaining that they've been so gravely insulted by Obama that they're going to torpedo the Democratic party in November as revenge.

She's the one running the no-holds-barred campaign. Bill Clinton himself said that it was fair game. You yourself said that she's not trying to run a "nice" campaign. If you think it's fair to run that kind of campaign, it's a little bit odd to whine when you lose that kind of campaign.

I still don't know what happened that was so horrible that people would prefer to hand the presidency to John McCain.

I think there has been a bandwagon thing with Obama...

Somehow, I don't see an unstoppable bandwagon of millions of new voters as a problem.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:21:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

And that is the problem.

Like I said, I think Obama will get the popular vote in the General, but I think he will lose the election.

So much for that bandwagon.

as for the first part, no, I am not saying Clinton ran a not nice campaign or a nice campaign.  I am saying, when Obamans defend their own viciousness by saying Clinton or her supporters have been nasty, if that is their perception, so what?  It's Obama running an entire candidacy on NO negative politics as usual.  

See?

I'm just a realist and expect that political campaigns to not be tea parties.  I also think it's dishonest to say that the Obama campaign has been sweetness and sunshine toward Clinton and her supporters .They haven't.  He's run as dirty and nasty a campaign as anyone, only he does it a la Bush: good cop/bad cop.  I don't respect that.

Have at it, but do so out in the open.

And I hope that, if Obama is the nominee, he'll throw the kitchen sink at McCain.  My guess is that, for Obamans, suddenly that kitchen sink thing will be okay too.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:35:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I still don't see what the Obama campaign has done to Hillary or her supporters that was so horrible.

The primary is different from the general because we're on the same goddamn side, or at least, we're supposed to be.

Obama has been pummeling McCain the past few weeks. Look at how Republicans have had to backtrack on their appeasement talk.

The Obama movement has the power to move huge numbers of people, some of them in pretty surprising places. Look at how he's systematically over-perform polling in the primary. Take a look at the backlash against Republicans in places like MS-01 where they tried to tie the Democratic candidate to Obama.

That's one reason why a lot of people (including a lot of super-delegates) are lining up behind his candidacy. He's demonstrated an ability to move huge blocks of voters in ways that even the Clinton machine can't match.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:06:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

He's moved voters that cannot bring the Democrats a win in November.  She's moved the ones that can.

And your inability to see what his campaign has done to Clinton and her supporters is only evidence, to me, of the hubris and myopia of the Obama "movement" as you call it.

Obama may be "pummeling" McCain (odd thing for someone who wants to change the tone and unite!), but polls show McCain beating him in key states.

The problem with the Obama movement is that they sing to the choir and what he and they say reverberates in their echo chamber and, like Bush, they simply will not hear anything that doesn't comport with their worldview.

Obama may well win a bazillion votes in New York and California, break records, etc., but so what?  He can't win the fewer number needed to actually win the election.  Clinton knew she had to get them so she went after them ,which is an ugly endeavor because they're not a pretty constituency (they gave us Bush, afterall!) and she was pummeled by the Obamans for it, by the people who on the other hand insist that we must not pummel out own!


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:20:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

And your inability to see what his campaign has done to Clinton and her supporters is only evidence, to me, of the hubris and myopia of the Obama "movement" as you call it.

Just give me a couple examples.

but polls show McCain beating him in key states.

Yes, and polls show Obama beating McCain in other key states. Polls also show Obama outperforming Clinton in many key states. Both Clinton and Obama have swing states that they perform well in, and swing states they perform poorly in.

The problem with the Obama movement is that they sing to the choir and what he and they say reverberates in their echo chamber and, like Bush, they simply will not hear anything that doesn't comport with their worldview.

I sense a bit of projection here.

Obama may well win a bazillion votes in New York and California, break records, etc., but so what?

Those are both states that Hillary Clinton beat Obama in. Obama's moving voters in places like Virginia, Colorado and Iowa.  Obama's running a 50 state strategy, and it's paying off.  Hillary didn't, and it cost her.


Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
by fwiffo3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:02:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Shifting winds (none / 0)

Good points all, Todd. I will disagree with your assessment that Clinton "will fail to sway the superdelegates into shifting her way." Yes, it may seem like a long shot, but is it really? I think this story has a twist in the end. :)


by grlpatriot on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:35:13 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

The thing that convinces me that Hillary Clinton isn't ready to be president is that she started out with all of the advantages, and managed to lose them. That's not the management style that you want in a President.

Remember, she started the primary season with:

- Fantastic name recognition.

  • All of the money.
  • The endorsements of the party leadership.
  • The large majority of the voters in all categories.
  • The press portraying her as the inevitable winner.

She's lost all of that, as well as (of course) the actual delegate count. And she didn't lose it because of anything anyone else did to her - she lost it because she put together a bad team, and pursued a risky primary strategy, then didn't change course when the initial strategy tanked.

On the flip side, Obama started out with none of those advantages, and some serious disadvantages (half-black, foreign-sounding name, minimal name recognition), and managed to beat the most powerful name in the Democratic party.

That's what I want in a President.


by laird on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:59:19 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Bush effectively used his advantages and won.

I want the person who is worse at political campaigning and better at governing.

I would not use good campaigning as a criterion by any means.  In fact, it might be a harbinger of a bad president, as was the case with Bush.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:05:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

psychological threshholds? (none / 0)

The HRC campaign has been entirely talking about psychological metrics instead of delegate metrics for the entire campaign.

To make it seem like the Obama campaign is focused on meaningless psychological metrics and threshholds without noting the context of Clinton's campaign is dishonest spin.

But that's what MyDD is known for at this point: dishonest spin in support of the Clinton camp.


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:00:30 AM EST

Re: psychological threshholds? (none / 0)

Crikely, they're all guilty of "dishonest spin."

Even Obama! Gasp!

The difference is, we Clinton supporters are honest about it.  You guys actually seem to believe that Obama is some kind of non-political, change figure.

He isn't. Reality is much ,much better.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:03:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: psychological threshholds? (none / 0)

Has it occurred to you that some Obama supporters are realistic that both candidates are professional politicians?

Have you considered the possibility we consider Obama to be a better politician?

And some politicians do change the world. Are you expecting HRC not to change anything?


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:45:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: psychological threshholds? (none / 0)

A) No. Indeed, the heart of Obama's candidacy is that he is NOT a "professional poltician", so for his supporters to admit that he is undermines his candidacy;

B) See A. It's a problem if you do.  And again, I distrust the candidate who is better at politics. Bush was better at politics than Kerry and Gore. I think Kerry Gore would have been much better presidents;

C) Not in the sense that Obamans are putting on Obama.  I expect Clinton would bring about consensus  and therefore slow change, which I think is wiser. I think Obama has been put in an impossible situation (his own doing) of having to make dramatic change OR completely failing because his candidacy was centered on rhetorical niceties rather than political realities.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:54:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I expect Clinton would bring about consensus (none / 0)

I expect Clinton would bring about consensus...

Are you completely detached from reality?!

Did you miss the '90s?

Based on what during the Clinton administration do you believe HRC will be an agent of building consensus?

Maybe, her polarizing presidential campaign has convinced you HRC will build consensus?


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:24:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I expect Clinton would bring about consensus (none / 0)

1) No, I'm not completely detached from reality, your Obama inspired unity notwithstanding;

2) The Clintons are not responsible for the fact that Republicans are hyenas and will go after whomever is in office, be it Clinton or Obama. They've alreay begun on Obama AND Michelle. I guess that makes Obama divisive and polarizing, right?

3) Clinton has a very strong record of working with Republicans in Congress.  There is a problem with the Obama argument here. On the one hand, the Clintons were criticized for compromising with Republicans (ie: Welfare reform, Don't Ask, Don't Tell) but on the other they're polarizing and cannot bring consensus and unity, but Obama can but somehow he's going to do this without working with Republicans!

Not sure how that works.  

AGain, i've asked what the evidence is that Obama can unite this country and bring all this change, which is the reason Richardson, for example, gave for bailing on the Clintons and endorsing Obama, and I've yet to get an answer.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:30:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I expect Clinton would bring about consensus (none / 0)

You are tilting at straw men.

You explain some position you attribute to Obama supporters and then attribute the position to me and then expect me to defend some position you've created.

My original position in this discussion is that it's beyond absurd for Clinton supporters to disrespect the Obama campaign for pushing psychological metrics since the Clinton campaign has been pushing psychological metrics pretty much non-stop since Iowa.

Do you care to address my point?


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:42:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I expect Clinton would bring about consensus (none / 0)

I have addressed your point.

You don't care to hold Obama to his own standards.

I've been saying that all along.  Obamans want change...when THEYRE done with their nastiness.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:55:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Poblano said more than that (2.00 / 2)

Todd,
I can appreciate the point you are trying to make in Clinton's favor. But I think it's somewhat disingenuous to post such a small snippet of Poblano's comments that is very much contrasted by the rest of his diary. The thrust of the diary is the near impossibility of Hillary's chances, and the ease with which Obama will clinch the nomination whether FL and MI are not seated, seated at half strength or seated in full. At this point, the only "success" possible for Clinton is an attempt to destroy Obama's chances in order to increase her own in 2012. I think his final paragraph says it all.

"Increasingly, I am beginning to side with Jonathan Chait: we should stop trying to interpret the Clintons' actions as those of a rational campaign. This is not just about Florida and Michigan. It's about kindergate and Jesse Jackson and "hard working" and a whole series of actions that were at best politically tone-deaf and at worst almost willfully self-destructive. The story of the Clintons is not that of a campaign that will debase itself in order to win. Rather, it's one of a campaign whose sense of self-pride had become so swollen as to obscure its path to victory."


by jadegirl on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:19:24 AM EST

Re: Poblano said more than that (none / 0)

If ONly they'd set out rules at the beginning that only the Obama camp can use race as a political tool, including making false accusations of racism and race baiting!

the FACT is that Obama would not be ahead w/o the African American vote.  Why is it racist to say so?  Is it sexist to say that it's women who've kept Hillary in the race this long?

No.

The despicable thing has been the exploitation of race by the Obama camp for political purposes.  Very Rovian.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:25:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

not that is matters
Pick and choose the pop vote of your choice..
Even in the BEST case for Clinton it is hardly a mandate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_vote_count.htm l
"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"
by nogo postal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:20:00 AM EST

honest question (none / 0)

IF HRC were to take the stance of: "while I understand my campaign would be better off if we counted Fla and Mich, it's not right, we all agreed to the same rules." Would she be more popular amongst all the electorate, R's and Independents included, or not?


by Roberto on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:34:09 AM EST

Would you also agree then (none / 0)

that the "popular vote metric," is simply a meme being pushed by the Clinton campaign?

Or is that somehow more valid in your mind (despite the problems with determining it) than the pledged delegate count?


Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America
by JDF on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:42:29 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

Sorry, Todd, but you are, again, completely wrong.

The pledged delegate majority has never been just an Obama talking point.

The pledged delegate majority IS THE REAL METRIC.

The party created pledged delegates to represent the will of the people at the convention. How can you not see that? The supers represent the party leaders, the pledged del's the people.

There is no popular vote count. There is a pledged delegate count and it is the only real metric for determining who wins the will of the people.

To say that it is just an Obama talking point is shameful. Not everything is even. No, Hillary and Obama arn't using equally made up metrics to spin this to the superdelegates.


by BlueGAinDC on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:49:17 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

This is a classic case of a false equivalence, and Todd knows better.

Several superdelegates have agreed publicly with the assertion that the candidate who wins the most delegates through the primaries and caucuses will be the nominee. To my knowledge, not one has publicly agreed with the current Clinton argument.

What's more, it's simply poor logic to say, "Hey, they're both arguments, therefore, they are both on equal footing."

They aren't.


by DeskHack on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:50:39 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

Now, I'm not saying the milestone is entirely meaningless, all I'm saying is let's call it what it is: a meme pushed out by the Obama camp to influence superdelegates and the media and to manipulate public perception

If Obama finished with a 10 pledged delegate lead, there are a lot of people who would be extremely, extremely upset if he was not nominated, who would accept it grumbling but gracefully if he finished with a 1 pledged delegate deficit.

It's not meaningless. It is the bright line between "chosen by the voters" and "chosen by the party elite".

This is where a Clinton "automatic delegate" apologist brings up the idea that supers were created to be independent, and that some votes, like caucuses, don't really capture the will of the people. And if you want to argue that, fine. But there are a lot of people who think that states deciding how they vote is fine, but supers overruling voters is crossing a line that should not be crossed, at least not without extreme reason.


by mattw on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:57:24 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

I am tired of our short-sighted Hillary vs. Obama battle. This post, Todd, perpetuates it and offers no illumination.

I hope Obama finally gets over whatever the official magic number is, so we can all just move on to the real fight.


by wolff109 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:18:11 PM EST

playing to the partisans? (2.00 / 1)

"let's call it what it is: a meme pushed out by the Obama camp to influence superdelegates and the media and to manipulate public perception"

This is not accurate. Obama did not invent this notion. He is merely leveraging it to buttress his case that he should be the nominee.

The accusation above somehow suggests that its underlying logic has no validity. It has more validity and substance than Clinton's spurious claim that she "won" the "popular vote."


by wolff109 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:24:28 PM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

Increasingly, I am beginning to side with Jonathan Chait: we should stop trying to interpret the Clintons' actions as those of a rational campaign. This is not just about Florida and Michigan. It's about kindergate and Jesse Jackson and "hard working" and a whole series of actions that were at best politically tone-deaf and at worst almost willfully self-destructive. The story of the Clintons is not that of a campaign that will debase itself in order to win. Rather, it's one of a campaign whose sense of self-pride had become so swollen as to obscure its path to victory.

The Clinton Campaign.  Lowering the bar just for the hell of it...

There's no game plan here, according to Poblano, she's just taking some swings, but I think it's in the hope that they connect, cause an Obama mistake, or give her some advantage.


"I'm all for the delegate battle, and now that Obama's campaign is too, I'm all giddy. It's going to be the supers as kingmaker." J.Armstrong 01/19/08
by obscurant on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:25:44 PM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I think the Clintons know what is needed to win the General.

Democrats have blown it.  Just hope and pray that disgust with Republicans is enough to put Obama over the top because that is the only way he can win.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:53:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I think the Clintons know what is needed to win the General.

Judging by how they campaigned in the Primary, I'm not so sure.  If they couldn't beat Obama, with all their advantages, how can you expect that they'll fare better against McCain?  Sexism will still be an issue in the General, and those who voted for Clinton, those Republican crossovers, may be less inclined to buoy her candidacy in the General.

Explain this to me, why would the nomination ever go to the 2nd place person, especially when she claims that she has been damaged by a sexist media?  She'll still be female in the General, you know.


"I'm all for the delegate battle, and now that Obama's campaign is too, I'm all giddy. It's going to be the supers as kingmaker." J.Armstrong 01/19/08
by obscurant on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:21:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

Because she can win the the blocs needed to win the General and Obama cannot.

Obama may get a kajillion votes, but he can't get the ones needed to win in November.  Clinton may get fewer votes, but she can get the ones needed to win the General.

She couldn't win the primary because the same Democrats who were furious with Kerry and Gore for not going after the GOP with the kitchen sink (and for distancing himself from Bill Clinton, in Gore's case) have forgotten all that and once again have gone all soft and ridiculous and pious over being nice all the time.

I think most Americans don't want a Republican in the White House, but that will bump up against their ignorance and fear of the unknown and the BS about Obama being so liberal, and they will vote for the person they feel they know better.  If it's Obama/McCain, they'll go with McCain.  If it's Clinton/McCain, Clinton offers them an alternative to the Republican whom they feel they know and doesn't feel as fringe left as Obama does.

I'm not saying I agree with that thinking. In fact I don't. But I think it is the realistic thinking.


by Juno on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:52:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

This blog posting = FAIL

Obama now has the pledged delegate majority (i.e 50% +1).  Hillary Clinton can no longer win with the majority of pledged delegates, meaning Obama's win among the VOTERS would have to be OVERTURNED by the supers to give Clinton the win.

On the flip side, the Supers would just be putting Obama over the hump.

In closing, the VOTERS should choose the nominee, not the supers, which means the supers should move over to Obama.

In the end though, the problem is the supers are all a bunch of wimps, afraid of doing their job.  

Yet another reason why the superdelegates should be eliminated and the nomination process overhauled.  And no, it shouldn't become winner-take-all, we already have that problem with the electoral college.  Instead, it should remain proportional just make it so that you have to get 30% of the vote to start receiving delegates instead of the current 15% threshold.


by RussTC3 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:34:49 PM EST

Good grief (2.00 / 1)

he sounds like he actually thinks a majority of pledged delegates means something concrete as opposed to merely psychological.

Nothing concrete about Obama having more ELECTED delegates than Hillary ever will?

Take your fingers out of your ears.


Anybody's vote is worth having. But not everybody's vote is worth campaigning for.
by Freespeechzone on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:00:20 PM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

No candidate that has one the majority of pledged delegates has been denied the nomination by super delegates.  To try to equate Hillary Clinton's ridiculous and ever-changing talking points with Obama's recognition of a milestone that has always resulted in the nomination is quite a stretch.


by WellstoneDem on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:20:45 PM EST


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