
Arjun Murti, who is an analyst at Goldman-Sachs who has predicted the last few spikes in oil accurately, predicts a "super spike" soon before or after the election that will drive oil prices above $200/barrel and prices at the pump to over $6-7/gallon. The New York Times has an article about his prediction today.
An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude
Some analysts also disagree:
"But many analysts are no longer so sure where oil is going, at least in the short term. Some say prices will fall as low as $70 a barrel by year-end, according to Thomson Financial."
"Other experts disagree over the supply of oil, the demand for it and whether recent speculation in the commodities markets has artificially raised prices."
But, even though prices have been high for a while, consumption in the US has only just started to fall. And global consumption now is so high that the US consumer's decisions, no longer effect oil prices as they used to. So changes, legislation, etc. enacted here with the aim of lowering prices at the pump may have only limited effect on the price of gas, which is driven by supply AND demand - global demand.
"The U.S. gasoline consumer is no longer driving world oil prices- this is a monumental event,"
High prices, he says, "send a message to consumers that you should try your best to buy fuel-efficient cars or otherwise conserve on energy."
I can't help but wonder what will happen in areas where the cost of driving is inherently very high, such as in the far West. Will people carpool to get to jobs, or will they simply have to move when they can no longer afford travel? These are questions we need to be asking ourselves.
Because oil prices may never go down.
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