Goldman Sachs Energy Analyst Predicts $200/barrel "Super Spike" In Oil Within Months

High Oil Price Trend Graphic

Arjun Murti, who is an analyst at Goldman-Sachs who has predicted the last few spikes in oil accurately, predicts a "super spike" soon before or after the election that will drive oil prices above $200/barrel and prices at the pump to over $6-7/gallon. The New York Times has an article about his prediction today.


An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude

Some analysts also disagree:
"But many analysts are no longer so sure where oil is going, at least in the short term. Some say prices will fall as low as $70 a barrel by year-end, according to Thomson Financial."

"Other experts disagree over the supply of oil, the demand for it and whether recent speculation in the commodities markets has artificially raised prices."

But, even though prices have been high for a while, consumption in the US has only just started to fall. And global consumption now is so high that the US consumer's decisions, no longer effect oil prices as they used to. So changes, legislation, etc. enacted here with the aim of lowering prices at the pump may have only limited effect on the price of gas, which is driven by supply AND demand - global demand.


"The U.S. gasoline consumer is no longer driving world oil prices- this is a monumental event,"

High prices, he says, "send a message to consumers that you should try your best to buy fuel-efficient cars or otherwise conserve on energy."

I can't help but wonder what will happen in areas where the cost of driving is inherently very high, such as in the far West. Will people carpool to get to jobs, or will they simply have to move when they can no longer afford travel? These are questions we need to be asking ourselves.

Because oil prices may never go down.


Poll
Would $7/gallon gasoline change your driving habits?
Yes, I would drive much less, and use public transportation more.
Yes, I would walk or use a bicycle more.
Yes, I would carpool or share driving with others.
Yes, but not much as I don't have much choice in the matter, I have to drive
No, I don't drive much or I don't own a car
No, I can't change anything. I will just eat the cost.
No, and I will pass the increased cost on by raising my prices for my work
Yes, I will have to move elsewhere if gasoline keeps going up

Votes: 3
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: Goldman Sachs Energy Analyst Predicts $200/bar (none / 0)

In my opinion, anyone who thinks the world economy can support $200/barrel oil needs to have their heads examined.

I wonder if high transportation costs would destroy the idea of a global economy where goods are produced at low labor rates and shipped to markets around the world.


by Dave B on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:38:15 AM EST

Re: Goldman Sachs Energy Analyst Predicts $200/bar (none / 0)

In some ways, this is the perfect antidote to globalization.  Think about it.  It's actually cheaper to ship products all the across the Pacific Ocean from China than to make them in our own backyard.  Even once you factor in the lower labor costs in China, that still adds time, fuel costs, a bit of risk and uncertainty (the boat may sink) and the cost of loading and unloading all of that cargo.

I used to think that a strong global labor movement was a better antidote to rampant globalization, but maybe high oil prices will have the same effect.


by the mollusk on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:49:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goldman Sachs Energy Analyst Predicts $200/bar (none / 0)

I think the point here is not IF this will happen, but WHEN this will happen.

I rec'd because I think we need to start understanding the reality of our energy future even aside from the potential catastrophe of global warming.

Gas tax holidays, modest increases in cafe, whining about foreign oil etc. all mask the magnitude of the underlying problem we face and the need for a total and urgent transformation of our economy to a clean energy economy.


Don't hate the media, become the media. -- Jello Biafra
by Orlando on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:13:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Deja Vu (none / 0)

Reminds this old man of the situation that dominated the agenda of the Carter Administration.

The idea of giving this bucket of poop to McCain to deal with is a more interesting option if oil spikes to $200.

'Let them that caused it deal with it....'


by xdem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:01:21 AM EST

RE: Goldman Sachs Energy Analyst Predicts (2.00 / 1)

Here's a stat:

When China and India reach the oil per capita of 2004 South Korea they alone will need 90,000,000 barrels of oil a day.  The entire world production is approx 86,000,000 barrels a day.  There is not a single oil analyst out there that is predicting a world production figure of 200,000,000 barrels a day any time in the future.  The Arabs are not uping production because they can't!  No one has ever been allowed into Saudi Arabia to confirm the Saudi oil reserve figures.

No Democrat or Republican will ever be able to do a damn thing about the price of oil and if they say they can then it is an outright lie!  Get used to high oil prices they are here to stay and will get higher so get the highest mileage car you can and make your home energy efficient.  Above all don't listen to any politician claiming to be able to bring gas prices down.


by orionwest on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:12:20 AM EST

Re: RE: Goldman Sachs Energy Analyst Predicts (none / 0)

yeah, the days of cheap oil are most likely over.  and i don't necessarily think that's a bad thing in the long run.


by the mollusk on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:16:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goldman Sachs Energy Analyst Predicts $200/bar (none / 0)

Oh, and by the way, thanks for having a blog that is not based on the trashing of one democratic candidate or another - you stand no chance of having substance enter the rec'd diary arena but I rec'd anyway.


Don't hate the media, become the media. -- Jello Biafra
by Orlando on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:15:14 AM EST

Re: Goldman Sachs Energy (none / 0)

I have no problem with oil hitting $200 a barrel - philosophically that is.  If that's what the market can bear, then that's what the market can bear.  Keep in mind that a large part of the increased oil cost in the US is due to the tremendous devaluation of our currency.  I mean, for God's sake, the dollar is worth less than the Canadian Dollar.  

I tremble at the thought of what people making less money than most would do at $6-7/gallon.  Having said that, the most sweeping and effective change comes when everyone stands up together, in unison, and says enough is enough.  This is what happened in Brazil before they were able to shift their entire energy structure away from petrol to E85 in only 7 years.  We are oil addicts - and junkies have to hit rock bottom before they can climb out of the whole.  I hope $6-7 is rock bottom, but I could see stubborn ass people willing to pay $10 a gallon.  The place that this will cripple the US is in the Midwest and suburbs...places without mass transit options like we have here in the DC area.


Congratulations Steny Hoyer! Our 2008 Chickenshit Leader Of The Year!
by RockvilleLiberal2 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:45:05 PM EST

gAs= death (none / 0)

this also caused by the futures market. I was reading about it on KOS and they were saying that the market was driving up prices, its not so much the supply and demand the companies want you to think. THere is definetly market speculation caused be a fear that there is a nearing shortage.

Its like a self- fullfilling prophecy. We are afraid of the gas prices causing the shortage fear which causes buyers to buy up all the market futures, thus causing a $10 spike/ barrel in one day alone.

The system of supply and demand that the republicans shove down our throats is not working.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:24:31 PM EST

Re: gAs= death (none / 0)

The futures market is operating correctly it's the politicians that refuse to admit the truth.  We no longer are in control of energy prices at all.  That stuff you're hearing on TV is pure nonsense!  See my post above.  China and India are sucking up every extra drop of oil on the planet!  We always believed the rest of the world wanted our way of life well welcome to the reality of the unsustainable 'American Dream'.


by orionwest on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:44:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Goldman Sachs Energy Analyst Predicts $200/bar (none / 0)

This would really hurt a lot of working folks badly, but ridiculously high gas prices (as if we aren't already experiencing those) are probably the best way to solidify public opinion around investments in clean energy, dramatically increased fuel standards, and a foreign policy that DOES NOT saber rattle against Middle Eastern countries and drive up the cost of oil's risk factor.


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:26:12 PM EST

Re: Goldman Sachs Energy Analyst (none / 0)

This is the most important post on this site and I rec'd it.  Today we're seeing the Democratic Congress at it's most pathetic.  Taxing Exxon will bring more money into the IRS but won't do anything to lower oil prices.  We passed that point long ago, get ready for a very rough ride!


by orionwest on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:52:36 PM EST

Goldman Sachs Energy Analyst Predicts $200/barrel (none / 0)

Interesting diary.  Today Congress is quizzing the oil execs

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24757944/


by JustJennifer on Wed May 21, 2008 at 03:36:47 PM EST


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